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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why are the Eurosceptics not kicking up more of a fuss?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why are the Eurosceptics not kicking up more of a fuss?
The Conservative whips are doing their job well. Evening after evening, the government records consistent majorities in the teens or twenties as it protects its Brexit Bill unamended through the Commons. More innovatively, we saw this morning a flurry of tweets and statements from Tory MPs and ministers lauding Theresa May for her tough diplomacy in delivering a good interim Brexit deal. That helped set the news agenda.
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Oh, and my first first?
I wonder what the PMs view is.....Tories deposing lady leaders never ends well....
Maybe they are as bored of it as everybody else? To them, as to anyone on the right side of sanity, "a bad deal is better than no deal."
Perhaps there is just the slightest possibility that the UK could start worrying about our chronically low productivity, poor skills, lack of affordable training, housing dysfunction, transport infrastructure, absence of reliable broadband coverage, the feeling that the young are getting a raw deal, and the myriad of other problems obscured by a rush to scapegoat the EU or Brexiters?
Or is that a bit too optimistic?
EDIT: Oprtimistic like my claim of second!
Surely that will be a bilateral matter between the British & Irish governments (and Stormont if it’s functioning?) The EU was not a signatory to either of the agreements.
Let me offer you an alternative perspective. Tory 'eurosceptics' have been selling the UK out to the EU for 50 years. The UK didn't get the referendum because of the Tories, they got it because of UKIP. The public instructed you to regain control of our laws, borders and trade. And their first action is to engage in another sellout.
The funny thing is that Tories think that these 'compromises' with the EU are popular. In fact, when they threw Thatcher under the bus and replaced her with 'eurosceptic' Major who sold out in one of these 'compromises', they were thrown out of power for 13 years.
Now, we have Tory Eurosceptics again lying through their teeth to support their leader in another sellout. Both Gove and Johnson have tried to spin 'full regulatory alignment' as proof that we will have control of our own laws. How stupid do they think people are?
Older Tory voters (eg most of them) who voted Leave have very little to fear from Corbyn - they are pensioners with assets who don't really care if the economy is tanked by a Marxist. I can promise you that these people will desert the Tories in droves. They are absolutely bloody minded enough to vote Corbyn to punish the Tories for ignoring the clear instruction they were given.
Gove, Johnson and Davis are all finished as potential Tory leaders. They have two choices - keep May, complete the sellout and get annihilated at the next election, or choose a new leader who actually is prepared to break the long tradition of Tory euro-treachery. Have fun!
Given the MSM whitewash, I expect a small short term bounce followed by a very significant decline the moment trade talks begin next year.
I’m still struggling with the idea that those who have essentially campaigned for Brexit for their entire political lives are going to accept this. Some of these people argued the EU should pay us to leave.
But Mr. Herdson is right so far - other than predictable chat from Farage (comeback on the cards?) - very little from the Brexiteers...
- The EU wants a deal (that hadn’t been clear)
- They have decided they prefer Mrs May to any of the alternatives
- Euro fudge is alive & well and residing on one side or other of the Irish border (which isn’t there....)
https://twitter.com/ToryVote_/status/939277324318576640?s=17
https://twitter.com/ToryVote_/status/939276730228969478?s=17
I’d say they were reasonably pleased....
And because their lives only have meaning if they can continue to rail against the EU and find the status quo unsatisfactory. Take that away, and their lives would be empty.
Both getting Brexit, and still being able to campaign for Brexit, is the ultimate cake and eat it.
Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland. In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.
We want to be in the Single Market and the Customs Union in all but name. If one thinks about it, it is not a million miles from Kier Starmer's August proposals [ agreed by the shadow cabinet ]. The reasons are obvious. Both the government and Labour have spoken to business, industry and have been spoken to by them. Both have recognised what is needed.
So, the negotiations will be about this: how much of the single market and the customs union can the UK be in [ without actually be in it! ] ? The EU's position is that the UK cannot be in the single market without Freedom of Movement. There are two fudges possible [ possibly more ]:
1. Instead of "freedom" there would be a generous system of work permits, free travel etc.
2. The UK actually pays an annual contribution like Norway.
or, both. There is, of course, also the separate negotiations for the "financial passport".
It might seem , at first glance, that #2 will be contentious. I doubt it. Theresa has called the headbanger's bluff and found there was not even a whimper when the EUR 45bn was agreed [ where are those who said we should walk away ? . not a penny etc. ].
It is possible that the DUP made Theresa show her hands more than she would have wanted to at this stage. I go back to the italics above:
In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union
I doubt if she really wanted to tie the rUK to this. But while the DUP kind of forced her hands, she may have thought that this was after all, close to her end game. She also may have gathered by now that whistling Boris, and Gove liked their red boxes too much to cause trouble. Fox has now effectively been made a Minister without Portfolio. Davis has become a bit of an embarrassment.
Theresa, after all, turned out to be a Remainer.
Fortunately the vast majority of people live thankfully on a different planet with a much more nuanced view of the world where shopping, SCD, sport, family and friends play the biggest part in their daily lives. They simply want to move on.
Good article.
My focus would be as follows:
Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland.In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.
So it is limited, by a natural reading of the words, to a subset of the rules "those rules" which support various aspects of the relationship between NI and RoI.
Free movement of people, for example, does not - that is already dealt with under the CTA, so there is no need for there to be "full alignment" between the UK and the IM/CU to address that concern.
My interpretation would be that - on a sector by sector basis - the UK government can pick and choose.
So, for example, we may chose to maintain "full alignment" in agriculture or in other sectors where there is significant cross border trade.
This is not the same as remaining in or close to the SM as a whole.
I think we will end up with Canada Plus, which would be a good outcome overall, and I think would satisfy most. There will also be a long transition.
Of course there will be some deal opposition, but it will have no traction with the wider population. They want to block immigration and english self rule. They dont for the most part understand or have any real interest in trade.
So we will sign up to a punitive, expensive, restrictive deal and brexiteers will have to suck it up.
Aaron banks will still have his african diamond mine and the wetherspoons guy will moan about it on his beermats. Life will go on.
Were out but not so far out as to be fully out so a 52-48 solution
It didn't take them long to get from €20 to €100! Then there was the €60 lunch!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/08/worlds-expensive-lunch-financial-times-nearly-cost-uk-extra15/
I think it would be fair to say they didn't have much of a clue......
With the 'plus':
https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/939253792457011200
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/polens-regierungschef-fuer-harte-fluechtlingspolitik-15332265.html
I'm happy you think so......everyone a winner!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/42291541
I'm bemused of the idea of a midnight curfew. They're meant to be top sportsmen, not inebriated fools. If they cannot be professional then we should just capitulate the series and return to England.
(And I'm not just saying this because I hate cricket).
Which Tory is going to agitate to rejoin? Signing up to the Euro, to Schengen, to harmonised taxes, to the United States of Europe. After a "softish Brexit"? Ken Clarke? Ann Soubry? Likely neither will be MPs after the next election. Who is the standard-bearer for the failed experiment of Europhilia? Who is going to say, "You know what, this country really needs to be writing a cheque to Brussels for £10 billion a year..." For membership fees of a club that doesn't want us in it. No-one with career ambitions in politics for a start.
You can just about imagine Chuka Umunna sounding it out. On a tour of Northern Working Mens Clubs. The once. But Labour won't sign up to rejoining any time soon - not under Corbyn. And as the world keeps turning once we are out, it will just seem quite quaint. If not bat-shit crazy. An idea that can safely reside in the Liberal Democrats.
Equally, who is going to agitate for another campaign for "a better deal", for Brexit 2 - "thus time, we'll REALLY make them give us back our decades of contributions..."? Come March 2019, name me a single supposed Tory Headbanger who is going to make that their career. The Conservative Party will stand shoulder-to-shoulder behind the final settlement reached on Brexit. Because it does the job. It really will lance the decades long Euro-boil that has so riven Tory politics. The flapping of white coats will be no more. And you can see how that notion terrifies many on the left: a Conservative Party with only one thing to focus on - beating Labour.
Farage might try and continue his career built on piss and wind - but UKIP is dead, its aim achieved. We are now a United Kingdom that is independent. All that is left of UKIP is a party, to be held in March 2019.
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/solution-to-appease-dup-triggered-better-outcome-for-ireland-36392272.html
at this rate it will be Arlene for Taoiseach
it's simply you picking on the bits you want and ignoring the wider picture
And for why? So a few obsessives can tell themselves that they're able to exercise theoretical sovereignty about the curvature of bananas.
As for your comment: I expect the deal itself to be well received, particularly so after the troubles of the last week. Putting on my negative hat though, I expect a heck of a lot of whinging and complaining down the line in two areas: the details of the deal and trade agreements, and then the continued payments.
I expect Eurosceptic newspapers and others to have headlines like: "we're still paying the EU xxx million", even if those payments are agreed or even sensible. Because that's the way they've behaved in the past, and it'll sell.
You're not a fan of this democracy lark, are you?
Bit chilly, again. Where's this Mediterranean climate we were promised?
And now here we are. The sectoral analyses the Labour Party demanded released and various people insisted was "us showing our hand" was us facing reality. Davis absurdly claimed they didn't exist after banging on and on about them and so didn't release them, but the entire episode forced the government to look again and conclude that they either protect the economy or they are finished.
Para 49 is clear. Unless there is an alternative deal we are in effect staying in both the SM and CU. That is good because the city needs to keep the 4 freedoms, it's also bad because that also means we keep Freedom of Movement. It won't be called FoM, the Tories will insist it's stopping, but like it's insistence that it's getting net migration down nothing practical will change.
Brexit was never about fact or practicality or detail for the nutters. It was at best about "taking control" on which front we've failed, or at worst about "getting rid of foreigners" on which front we've failed. The "we'll win votes" view I keep reading from Tories is absurd. Your vote relies on these nutters, you have by your own definition failed on every measure to avoid "betrayal" and they will destroy you.
"Voters can use the next general election to have their say on a final Brexit deal, Michael Gove has said.
The environment secretary praised Theresa May's "tenacity and skill" in securing a last-minute deal to end phase one negotiations on Friday.
But, writing in the Daily Telegraph, he said if British people "dislike the arrangement", they can change it."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42291191
Invoking the great Michael Collins would really annoy Varadhkar and Foster, but it would be quite funny.
https://twitter.com/MysteryPollster/status/939242790990614528?s=17
but in 40 years Remain never convinced of the benefits of being in
as I said yesterday the toxic legacy of the vote isnt whatever deal we come out with, but that people like yourself cannot bringthemselves to understand why they lost
youre like the Bourbons in 1815
I agree
Evil lies stirring up xenophobic fears were more than enough to overwhelm cerebral arguments for staying in.
Do you genuinely believe there were no sound reasons to want to leave?
We have to maintain alignment with the curvature of eurobananas, without even being able to express an opinion on preferred radius.
*delete according to choice.
The big loser in all of this, it seems to me, is Corbyn Labour. A soft Brexit removes the fears of many about leaving the EU. It’s not ideal for Remainers, but it’s so much better than it could have been. Is the incentive to hold their noses and vote for Labour among middle class, pro-Remain electorates in places like Leamington Spa, Canterbury and some of the London constituencies still as strong now that there’ll be no cliff edge or Hard Brexit? I wonder. I guess it depends on who the next Tory leader is. If they can tack back to the centre and avoid anyone too closely associated with Brexit I’d say they now have a big chance to win in 2021/22
It's so blatant and falls apart so quickly too, it's pretty funny. 'Everyone did x' 'not everyone' 'that doesn't matter you fool' 'don't call me a fool' 'aha, now you're angry which means I must have won right?' 'Er'
It's not even worth acknowledging the flaws or outright problems with the leave campaign since it never mollifies and 'everyone' is always stated to have the most ultra view, no matter that is demonstrably untrue. Usually with the lame excuse that because some were all were. It's the extreme logic of a child.
But what else can be expected of ultras? By definition they don't permit information to alter their worldview, even when directly contradicted you just move on. Sorry to be so harsh, but ultras are ultras - there will be correct and fair points made, but they are incidental to the emotional venting. It's amazing how much leaver and remain ultras have in common, a few quick edits to switch the direction 180 and you could be looking at the same person in style and tone.
Above the line always better than below though, that's true of everyone.
On the wider point, people cannot really grasp things this complex. Unfortunately that includes the government. But it means good deal or not is less important than if people think it is good or bad, and that depends entirely on presentation and reaction. For now that is fairly muted, so I think it right to predict the big party ruckus to be in a year or so as the situation is still in can kicking mode for much of it.
As it is I would like to pay less, obviously, but I also preferred a very soft Brexit and that wouldn't happen without a lot paid, so it is what it is. Reading how much there is still to go and how far apart the sides still are does make me question if this was all worth it, and I can't believe the cabinet still have not got unity on the end state, but hopefully no deal can be avoided.
Pleasant day all, it's time for early Xmas - family up early due to Xmas travelling. Good stuff.
GFA. These can be as wide or as narrow as we agree to make them outside the scope of security, policing and common institutions. I therefore do not agree with David that this ties us in as much as he says.
I also don’t agree that it is a free standing unilateral guarantee independent of art 5 which says nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
But I do agree it is highly indicative of the direction of travel. The government has looked over the cliff edge and not fancied the jump. We are heading towards a soft Brexit where we will tip toe away from the EU over time as it itself evolves away from us. That seems perfectly sensible to me.
Ok you lost to a 2 posters,one on a side of a bus and one showing a queue .
Where I would slightly disagree is his fundamental belief (I think) that the referendum has created huge division in the country. I think the referendum was the symptom not the cause. It’s just brought the undercurrent into the open. Which in the long run could be both positive or negative.
Corbyn has never banged on about Europe, he bangs on about austerity. His unexpected success in this years election was to not accept that it was a Brexit election. The next one will not be either, it will be on the subject of austerity, falling living standards, emaciated public services and generational inequality.
"It is true that a narrow interpretation of the provision would mean that only a few areas would be affected by the need for alignment. The history of the EU suggests that a narrow interpretation will not be their favoured one. Just about anything could be considered to “support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement”. I strongly suspect that across large sectors of the economy and beyond, the UK will continue to be a rule-taker from the EU".
That is why I laid emphasis on DUP insistence [ that all areas of the UK is covered ] and May's tacit acceptance. In the end, May realised that by agreeing to the DUP, she effectively also gets Single Market lite and Customs Union lite. Of course, if everything else falls into place. There is no doubt in my mind that that is where May is heading. Business leaders have let her know about the real world.
Of course, there are plenty of others too (young and old, snowflake and sensible etc etc).
I agree about the terms of the next election. It all depends on who leads the Tories into it. But a soft Brexit takes away one very big reason for voting against the Tories - if their next leader is not a high profile Brexiteer.
Corbyn, as Dr.Fox says, will be about austerity etc. The 30-40s will still be without a home of their own. Corbyn is not pro-Brexit as many Tory headbangers here insist. But neither is he an enthusiastic Remainer.
If I am,I apologize.
But now the pragmatists are in charge looking to protect the huge advantages the EU obtains from our current trading arrangements, £60bn net surplus a year. They will want to retain that access and financial advantage. I think phase 2 will prove easier than what we have had to date.
But if she doesn't, who's going to stand against her first?