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  • So we either get a deal by Friday, or the government collapses by Monday.

    PM Jezza by Christmas?

    PM someone by Christmas. As the debris continues to fall all around, is it not now utterly clear that May is done? The Irish have told us that a deal was done and on the record - expect that document to be leaked by bedtime. And what a deal - one that was immediately kyboshed by Arlene the Bigot. And one that reportedly has enraged just about everyone in the Tory party from both wings.

    You have to hand it to her. As Omnishambles go, this is a doozy. And best of all, so much bad blood generated by the fiasco that you have to ask is there *any* form of words that is now acceptable to both Forster and Varadkhar that satisfies both the Tory foaming-dog-fever brigade and Junker?

    So she's gone because "leave her in as the least worst option" no longer washes. Question is who is there in their ranks capable of unity? Anyone want to volunteer a name? But as was pointed out on the previous thread, given the choice of vote confidence in the government or be turned out via an election or not, I'd expect the government to pass the vote that my party will bring.

    A zombie government. The Tories trapped in office bound by ice having to eat* each other to survive. Whats left at the end in 2022 will be put down by the voters. An Extinction Level Event for the party.

    *despite that memo in circulation suggesting otherwise, I meant Tory MPs eating each other in relation to cannibalism, not thingy...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    I'm sure all those Tories who said we should tell the EU they should go fu*k themselves now propose we do the same to the DUP.
  • Theresa May's ructions with the DUP rather shows how well Tony Blair et al did successfully negotiating the Good Friday Agreement back in 1998.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,746
    edited December 2017

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @blairmcdougall: Surely it's time for Labour to step up & say blindingly obvious: to avoid a political & economic crisis we need to leave EU but stay in Single Market & Customs Union. It's a compromise that could unite the vast majority who are neither hardliners nor seeking to overturn result.

    @Alison_McGovern: This x 1million twitter.com/laboursinglemk…

    @laboursinglemkt: Hard Brexit isn't only a threat to jobs, rights & future wealth, but to the UK’s territorial integrity. If we don’t want a border in Northern Ireland, the whole of the UK must stay in the single market & customs union.

    What's the point leaving the EU but staying in the SM and customs union?
    It's the option that involves shooting ourselves in the foot the least.
    No it really isn't. Leaving the EU but staying in the Customs Union is the ultimate dumb idea. No wonder so many Remainers are keen on it - although to their credit a few do realise how stupid an idea it is.

    Surely it's only a bad idea if you think that outside the CU will can negotiate trade deals so magnificent they make up for not being in it.

    As someone who has said they want to keep as close a trading relationship as possible with the EU whilst respecting Brexit, you have to choose. CU or EEA. You cannot have both.

    I choose being in the Single Market and the Customs Union!

    You have always said you respected the result of the referendum and we should leave the EU. It is one of the things that has set you apart from other Remoaners on here. If you are abandoning that position then unfortunately you have abandoned any intellectual and moral integrity as well.
    I take it that if Corbyn wins the next election, you will respect the result and the policies, help make it a success and not try to overturn the result.

    I just don't get this "respect" thing. It is an awful weasel word. The referendum should never have been called. The conduct on both sides was a disgrace. The result is uninformed and a catastrophe for the UK and its citizens. What is there to respect?

    I'm doing all I can personally to get it reversed and cheer on days like today.
  • Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
    The UK staying in the single market and customs union is totally incompatible with leaving the EU. So no its not a realistic suggestion, any more than my three year old telling me she should have chocolate for breakfast, lunch and dinner is a realistic suggestion.

    It may be what you want, but its not an option, so what else is acceptable?
    Norway is in the Single Market but not the EU. Turkey is in the Customs Union but not the EU. The EU is not the EEA or the CU. The vote was on the EU. What you chose to infer "EU" means is up to you, but we absolutely can leave the EU and remain in the EEA and CU.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,603
    edited December 2017

    Something's gotta give here.

    The UK or Brexit.

    If there is No Deal, we are now at the point where the DUP will get the blame along with the Tories. What the DUP could end up discovering is that British attachment to Northern Ireland is not quite as strong as the Northern Irish unionist attachment to Britain.
    For a unionist party to alienate two unions is some achievement.
    I'm waiting for HYUFD to come along and say Mrs May isn't a Tory any moment now.
    Mrs May has done nothing to abandon the Union, it is thanks to her in part the SNP lost almost half their seats in June and Northern Ireland still has a clear Unionist majority, May is only going to agree a final Irish border issue which can satisfy bother the Republic and the DUP.
  • Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
    The UK staying in the single market and customs union is totally incompatible with leaving the EU. So no its not a realistic suggestion, any more than my three year old telling me she should have chocolate for breakfast, lunch and dinner is a realistic suggestion.

    It may be what you want, but its not an option, so what else is acceptable?
    Norway is in the Single Market but not the EU. Turkey is in the Customs Union but not the EU. The EU is not the EEA or the CU. The vote was on the EU. What you chose to infer "EU" means is up to you, but we absolutely can leave the EU and remain in the EEA and CU.
    Turkey is not in the EU customs union, it has a customs union with the EU.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    Something's gotta give here.

    The UK or Brexit.

    If there is No Deal, we are now at the point where the DUP will get the blame along with the Tories. What the DUP could end up discovering is that British attachment to Northern Ireland is not quite as strong as the Northern Irish unionist attachment to Britain.
    For a unionist party to alienate two unions is some achievement.
    I'm waiting for HYUFD to come along and say Mrs May isn't a Tory any moment now.
    Mrs May has done nothing to abandon the Union, it is thanks to her in part the SNP lost almost half their seats in June and Northern Ireland still has a clear Unionist majority, May is only going to agree a final Irish border issue which can satisfy bother the Republic and the DUP.
    I thought Davidson was wot won it.
  • Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
    The UK staying in the single market and customs union is totally incompatible with leaving the EU. So no its not a realistic suggestion, any more than my three year old telling me she should have chocolate for breakfast, lunch and dinner is a realistic suggestion.

    It may be what you want, but its not an option, so what else is acceptable?
    Norway is in the Single Market but not the EU. Turkey is in the Customs Union but not the EU. The EU is not the EEA or the CU. The vote was on the EU. What you chose to infer "EU" means is up to you, but we absolutely can leave the EU and remain in the EEA and CU.
    Your own examples contradict you.

    Norway is not in the Customs Union.
    Turkey is not in either the EEA or the Customs Union, though it has a customs union.

    Please pick any example that is both in the Customs Union and the EEA but not the EU.
  • Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
    The UK staying in the single market and customs union is totally incompatible with leaving the EU. So no its not a realistic suggestion, any more than my three year old telling me she should have chocolate for breakfast, lunch and dinner is a realistic suggestion.

    It may be what you want, but its not an option, so what else is acceptable?
    Norway is in the Single Market but not the EU. Turkey is in the Customs Union but not the EU. The EU is not the EEA or the CU. The vote was on the EU. What you chose to infer "EU" means is up to you, but we absolutely can leave the EU and remain in the EEA and CU.
    Turkey is not in the EU customs union, it has a customs union with the EU.
    Thanks for the correction - A customs union not THE customs union is also the form of words Starmer uses. In a practical sense its the same - customs union.

    Anyone got a name for who replaces May then? Because she is finished now.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,746
    She should say "I'm in charge here. This is what we are going to do. If you don't like it, go for a no confidence vote on me which you will lose heavily. In the meantime stop whining". I wouldn't offer to resign. That is no threat.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    So we either get a deal by Friday, or the government collapses by Monday.

    PM Jezza by Christmas?

    PM someone by Christmas. As the debris continues to fall all around, is it not now utterly clear that May is done? The Irish have told us that a deal was done and on the record - expect that document to be leaked by bedtime. And what a deal - one that was immediately kyboshed by Arlene the Bigot. And one that reportedly has enraged just about everyone in the Tory party from both wings.

    You have to hand it to her. As Omnishambles go, this is a doozy. And best of all, so much bad blood generated by the fiasco that you have to ask is there *any* form of words that is now acceptable to both Forster and Varadkhar that satisfies both the Tory foaming-dog-fever brigade and Junker?

    So she's gone because "leave her in as the least worst option" no longer washes. Question is who is there in their ranks capable of unity? Anyone want to volunteer a name? But as was pointed out on the previous thread, given the choice of vote confidence in the government or be turned out via an election or not, I'd expect the government to pass the vote that my party will bring.

    A zombie government. The Tories trapped in office bound by ice having to eat* each other to survive. Whats left at the end in 2022 will be put down by the voters. An Extinction Level Event for the party.

    *despite that memo in circulation suggesting otherwise, I meant Tory MPs eating each other in relation to cannibalism, not thingy...
    Anyone want to volunteer a name?

    Damien Green, without a laptop ?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
    The UK staying in the single market and customs union is totally incompatible with leaving the EU.
    Why?
  • Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
    The UK staying in the single market and customs union is totally incompatible with leaving the EU. So no its not a realistic suggestion, any more than my three year old telling me she should have chocolate for breakfast, lunch and dinner is a realistic suggestion.

    It may be what you want, but its not an option, so what else is acceptable?
    Norway is in the Single Market but not the EU. Turkey is in the Customs Union but not the EU. The EU is not the EEA or the CU. The vote was on the EU. What you chose to infer "EU" means is up to you, but we absolutely can leave the EU and remain in the EEA and CU.
    Turkey is not in the EU customs union, it has a customs union with the EU.
    Thanks for the correction - A customs union not THE customs union is also the form of words Starmer uses. In a practical sense its the same - customs union.

    Anyone got a name for who replaces May then? Because she is finished now.
    Except Turkey is not in the Single Market and Norway is not in any customs union.
  • Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @blairmcdougall: Surely it's time for Labour to step up & say blindingly obvious: to avoid a political & economic crisis we need to leave EU but stay in Single Market & Customs Union. It's a compromise that could unite the vast majority who are neither hardliners nor seeking to overturn result.

    @Alison_McGovern: This x 1million twitter.com/laboursinglemk…

    @laboursinglemkt: Hard Brexit isn't only a threat to jobs, rights & future wealth, but to the UK’s territorial integrity. If we don’t want a border in Northern Ireland, the whole of the UK must stay in the single market & customs union.

    What's the point leaving the EU but staying in the SM and customs union?
    It's the option that involves shooting ourselves in the foot the least.
    No it really isn't. Leaving the EU but staying in the Customs Union is the ultimate dumb idea. No wonder so many Remainers are keen on it - although to their credit a few do realise how stupid an idea it is.

    Surely it's only a bad idea if you think that outside the CU will can negotiate trade deals so magnificent they make up for not being in it.

    As someone who has said they want to keep as close a trading relationship as possible with the EU whilst respecting Brexit, you have to choose. CU or EEA. You cannot have both.

    I choose being in the Single Market and the Customs Union!

    You have always said you respected the result of the referendum and we should leave the EU. It is one of the things that has set you apart from other Remoaners on here. If you are abandoning that position then unfortunately you have abandoned any intellectual and moral integrity as well.
    I take it that if Corbyn wins the next election, you will respect the result and the policies, help make it a success and not try to overturn the result.

    I just don't get this "respect" thing. It is an awful weasel word. The referendum should never have been called. The conduct on both sides was a disgrace. The result is uninformed and a catastrophe for the UK and its citizens. What is there to respect?

    I'm doing all I can personally to get it reversed and cheer on days like today.
    Absolutely I would respect the result. I would reserve the right to vote against him at the following election if he is seen to fail the country but I certainly wouldn't try and use underhand and dishonest methods to get him out of power.

    Unlike you I respect democracy. You don't deserve it.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Barnesian said:

    She should say "I'm in charge here. This is what we are going to do. If you don't like it, go for a no confidence vote on me which you will lose heavily. In the meantime stop whining". I wouldn't offer to resign. That is no threat.
    Actually, on this point, she will get a big majority. But on day-to-day business the bigots will stop supporting her government. What then ?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Theresa May's ructions with the DUP rather shows how well Tony Blair et al did successfully negotiating the Good Friday Agreement back in 1998.

    It sure does.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,746

    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
    The UK staying in the single market and customs union is totally incompatible with leaving the EU. So no its not a realistic suggestion, any more than my three year old telling me she should have chocolate for breakfast, lunch and dinner is a realistic suggestion.

    It may be what you want, but its not an option, so what else is acceptable?
    Norway is in the Single Market but not the EU. Turkey is in the Customs Union but not the EU. The EU is not the EEA or the CU. The vote was on the EU. What you chose to infer "EU" means is up to you, but we absolutely can leave the EU and remain in the EEA and CU.
    Your own examples contradict you.

    Norway is not in the Customs Union.
    Turkey is not in either the EEA or the Customs Union, though it has a customs union.

    Please pick any example that is both in the Customs Union and the EEA but not the EU.
    The UK in five years time with a bespoke agreement? There's a first time for everything.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,406
    Tough spot for TM but one of her own making.
    This deal would be done but for her early election call.
  • Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
    The UK staying in the single market and customs union is totally incompatible with leaving the EU. So no its not a realistic suggestion, any more than my three year old telling me she should have chocolate for breakfast, lunch and dinner is a realistic suggestion.

    It may be what you want, but its not an option, so what else is acceptable?
    Norway is in the Single Market but not the EU. Turkey is in the Customs Union but not the EU. The EU is not the EEA or the CU. The vote was on the EU. What you chose to infer "EU" means is up to you, but we absolutely can leave the EU and remain in the EEA and CU.
    Your own examples contradict you.

    Norway is not in the Customs Union.
    Turkey is not in either the EEA or the Customs Union, though it has a customs union.

    Please pick any example that is both in the Customs Union and the EEA but not the EU.
    The UK in five years time with a bespoke agreement? There's a first time for everything.
    Name one good reason we should be in both the customs union and the single market but not the EU. It is the worst of all worlds.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    surbiton said:

    So we either get a deal by Friday, or the government collapses by Monday.

    PM Jezza by Christmas?

    PM someone by Christmas. As the debris continues to fall all around, is it not now utterly clear that May is done? The Irish have told us that a deal was done and on the record - expect that document to be leaked by bedtime. And what a deal - one that was immediately kyboshed by Arlene the Bigot. And one that reportedly has enraged just about everyone in the Tory party from both wings.

    You have to hand it to her. As Omnishambles go, this is a doozy. And best of all, so much bad blood generated by the fiasco that you have to ask is there *any* form of words that is now acceptable to both Forster and Varadkhar that satisfies both the Tory foaming-dog-fever brigade and Junker?

    So she's gone because "leave her in as the least worst option" no longer washes. Question is who is there in their ranks capable of unity? Anyone want to volunteer a name? But as was pointed out on the previous thread, given the choice of vote confidence in the government or be turned out via an election or not, I'd expect the government to pass the vote that my party will bring.

    A zombie government. The Tories trapped in office bound by ice having to eat* each other to survive. Whats left at the end in 2022 will be put down by the voters. An Extinction Level Event for the party.

    *despite that memo in circulation suggesting otherwise, I meant Tory MPs eating each other in relation to cannibalism, not thingy...
    Anyone want to volunteer a name?

    Damien Green, without a laptop ?
    Computa says no...
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    surbiton said:

    Barnesian said:

    She should say "I'm in charge here. This is what we are going to do. If you don't like it, go for a no confidence vote on me which you will lose heavily. In the meantime stop whining". I wouldn't offer to resign. That is no threat.
    Actually, on this point, she will get a big majority. But on day-to-day business the bigots will stop supporting her government. What then ?
    Maybe she should call a GE in order to get the majority she needs to negotiate Brexit..

    Oh wait...
  • Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
    The UK staying in the single market and customs union is totally incompatible with leaving the EU. So no its not a realistic suggestion, any more than my three year old telling me she should have chocolate for breakfast, lunch and dinner is a realistic suggestion.

    It may be what you want, but its not an option, so what else is acceptable?
    Norway is in the Single Market but not the EU. Turkey is in the Customs Union but not the EU. The EU is not the EEA or the CU. The vote was on the EU. What you chose to infer "EU" means is up to you, but we absolutely can leave the EU and remain in the EEA and CU.
    No you cannot. Sorry but this is the height of ill informed ignorance.

    1. The EEA is an agreement between members of the EU and members of EFTA. The whole way in which the treaty is written means it is not possible to be in the EEA without being in the EU or EFTA.

    2. EFTA members negotiate trade agreements as a group. Therefore you cannot be in EFTA and be in the EU Customs Union. The two are mutually exclusive.

    Therefore your statement is utterly wrong. One cannot be in the EEA and the Customs Union without being a member of the EU.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,746

    Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
    The UK staying in the single market and customs union is totally incompatible with leaving the EU. So no its not a realistic suggestion, any more than my three year old telling me she should have chocolate for breakfast, lunch and dinner is a realistic suggestion.

    It may be what you want, but its not an option, so what else is acceptable?
    Norway is in the Single Market but not the EU. Turkey is in the Customs Union but not the EU. The EU is not the EEA or the CU. The vote was on the EU. What you chose to infer "EU" means is up to you, but we absolutely can leave the EU and remain in the EEA and CU.
    Your own examples contradict you.

    Norway is not in the Customs Union.
    Turkey is not in either the EEA or the Customs Union, though it has a customs union.

    Please pick any example that is both in the Customs Union and the EEA but not the EU.
    The UK in five years time with a bespoke agreement? There's a first time for everything.
    Name one good reason we should be in both the customs union and the single market but not the EU. It is the worst of all worlds.
    It is worse than staying in the EU but it is the least worse option that respects :spit: the result of the referendum.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    "The Irish negotiating team received confirmation from the British government and the Barnier taskforce that the United Kingdom had agreed a text on the border that met our concerns.

    This text would form a part of the broader EU/UK agreement on phase one (of the Brexit negotiations) and allow us all to move on to phase two.

    I am surprised and disappointed that the British government now appears not to be in a position to conclude what was agreed earlier today. I accept that the prime minister has asked for more time, and I know that she faces many challenges and I acknowledge that she is negotiating in good faith.

    But my position and that of the Irish government is unequivocal and is supported by all the parties in Dail Eirann and I believe the majority of people on these islands. Ireland wants to proceed to phase two - It’s very much in our interests to do so. However we cannot agree to do this unless we have firm guarantees that there will not be a hard border in Ireland under any circumstances."

    - The Guardian

    Varadkar's statement at the press conference is crystal clear.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,723
    edited December 2017
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
    The UK staying in the single market and customs union is totally incompatible with leaving the EU. So no its not a realistic suggestion, any more than my three year old telling me she should have chocolate for breakfast, lunch and dinner is a realistic suggestion.

    It may be what you want, but its not an option, so what else is acceptable?
    Norway is in the Single Market but not the EU. Turkey is in the Customs Union but not the EU. The EU is not the EEA or the CU. The vote was on the EU. What you chose to infer "EU" means is up to you, but we absolutely can leave the EU and remain in the EEA and CU.
    Your own examples contradict you.

    Norway is not in the Customs Union.
    Turkey is not in either the EEA or the Customs Union, though it has a customs union.

    Please pick any example that is both in the Customs Union and the EEA but not the EU.
    The UK in five years time with a bespoke agreement? There's a first time for everything.
    Name one good reason we should be in both the customs union and the single market but not the EU. It is the worst of all worlds.
    It is worse than staying in the EU but it is the least worse option that respects :spit: the result of the referendum.
    Good to see you confirming my view of you by spitting on democracy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,603
    edited December 2017
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
    The UK staying in the single market and customs union is totally incompatible with leaving the EU. So no its not a realistic suggestion, any more than my three year old telling me she should have chocolate for breakfast, lunch and dinner is a realistic suggestion.

    It may be what you want, but its not an option, so what else is acceptable?
    Norway is in the Single Market but not the EU. Turkey is in the Customs Union but not the EU. The EU is not the EEA or the CU. The vote was on the EU. What you chose to infer "EU" means is up to you, but we absolutely can leave the EU and remain in the EEA and CU.
    Your own examples contradict you.

    Norway is not in the Customs Union.
    Turkey is not in either the EEA or the Customs Union, though it has a customs union.

    Please pick any example that is both in the Customs Union and the EEA but not the EU.
    The UK in five years time with a bespoke agreement? There's a first time for everything.
    Name one good reason we should be in both the customs union and the single market but not the EU. It is the worst of all worlds.
    It is worse than staying in the EU but it is the least worse option that respects :spit: the result of the referendum.
    It does not respect the Leave vote to end free movement, so only a FTA will do
  • Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
    The UK staying in the single market and customs union is totally incompatible with leaving the EU. So no its not a realistic suggestion, any more than my three year old telling me she should have chocolate for breakfast, lunch and dinner is a realistic suggestion.

    It may be what you want, but its not an option, so what else is acceptable?
    Norway is in the Single Market but not the EU. Turkey is in the Customs Union but not the EU. The EU is not the EEA or the CU. The vote was on the EU. What you chose to infer "EU" means is up to you, but we absolutely can leave the EU and remain in the EEA and CU.
    Your own examples contradict you.

    Norway is not in the Customs Union.
    Turkey is not in either the EEA or the Customs Union, though it has a customs union.

    Please pick any example that is both in the Customs Union and the EEA but not the EU.
    The UK in five years time with a bespoke agreement? There's a first time for everything.
    Name one good reason we should be in both the customs union and the single market but not the EU. It is the worst of all worlds.
    It is worse than staying in the EU but it is the least worse option that respects :spit: the result of the referendum.
    No it doesn't, since it is just staying in the EU in another name but sacrificing our voting powers. Which is why not one country in Europe is dumb enough to do what you propose.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,287
    Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @blairmcdougall: Surely it's time for Labour to step up & say blindingly obvious: to avoid a political & economic crisis we need to leave EU but stay in Single Market & Customs Union. It's a compromise that could unite the vast majority who are neither hardliners nor seeking to overturn result.

    @Alison_McGovern: This x 1million twitter.com/laboursinglemk…

    @laboursinglemkt: Hard Brexit isn't only a threat to jobs, rights & future wealth, but to the UK’s territorial integrity. If we don’t want a border in Northern Ireland, the whole of the UK must stay in the single market & customs union.

    What's the point leaving the EU but staying in the SM and customs union?
    It's the option that involves shooting ourselves in the foot the least.
    No it really isn't. Leaving the EU but staying in the Customs Union is the ultimate dumb idea. No wonder so many Remainers are keen on it - although to their credit a few do realise how stupid an idea it is.

    Surely it's only a bad idea if you think that outside the CU will can negotiate trade deals so magnificent they make up for not being in it.

    As someone who has said they want to keep as close a trading relationship as possible with the EU whilst respecting Brexit, you have to choose. CU or EEA. You cannot have both.

    I choose being in the Single Market and the Customs Union!

    You have always said you respected the result of the referendum and we should leave the EU. It is one of the things that has set you apart from other Remoaners on here. If you are abandoning that position then unfortunately you have abandoned any intellectual and moral integrity as well.
    I take it that if Corbyn wins the next election, you will respect the result and the policies, help make it a success and not try to overturn the result.

    I just don't get this "respect" thing. It is an awful weasel word. The referendum should never have been called. The conduct on both sides was a disgrace. The result is uninformed and a catastrophe for the UK and its citizens. What is there to respect?

    I'm doing all I can personally to get it reversed and cheer on days like today.
    It'll all be forgotten after the second referendum.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,746
    surbiton said:

    Barnesian said:

    She should say "I'm in charge here. This is what we are going to do. If you don't like it, go for a no confidence vote on me which you will lose heavily. In the meantime stop whining". I wouldn't offer to resign. That is no threat.
    Actually, on this point, she will get a big majority. But on day-to-day business the bigots will stop supporting her government. What then ?
    It only really matters if they don't support her on a confidence motion or the budget in which case there will be a GE which none of them want. She may have to discuss some legislation with the opposition parties to get it through. It will be middle of the road compromises that cuts out the extremes.
  • Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
    The UK staying in the single market and customs union is totally incompatible with leaving the EU. So no its not a realistic suggestion, any more than my three year old telling me she should have chocolate for breakfast, lunch and dinner is a realistic suggestion.

    It may be what you want, but its not an option, so what else is acceptable?
    Norway is in the Single Market but not the EU. Turkey is in the Customs Union but not the EU. The EU is not the EEA or the CU. The vote was on the EU. What you chose to infer "EU" means is up to you, but we absolutely can leave the EU and remain in the EEA and CU.
    No you cannot. Sorry but this is the height of ill informed ignorance.

    1. The EEA is an agreement between members of the EU and members of EFTA. The whole way in which the treaty is written means it is not possible to be in the EEA without being in the EU or EFTA.

    2. EFTA members negotiate trade agreements as a group. Therefore you cannot be in EFTA and be in the EU Customs Union. The two are mutually exclusive.

    Therefore your statement is utterly wrong. One cannot be in the EEA and the Customs Union without being a member of the EU.
    Well ignorance seems to be all that Brexit is about. Apparntly we can just tell the foreign types to eff orf and go WTO but then just open our borders only to the EU.

    All I want is this - for free trade to continue on the day we leave the EU. As it become crystal clear from anyone who actually trades we cannot go WTO without collapsing our economy in its current form. Therefore compromise is needed.

    I am open to whatever form that compromise is - but we have to have some. As the Tory press and various MPs seem to believe their own "expert" opinion over those of the experts, I don't hold out much hope.
  • surbiton said:

    "The Irish negotiating team received confirmation from the British government and the Barnier taskforce that the United Kingdom had agreed a text on the border that met our concerns.

    This text would form a part of the broader EU/UK agreement on phase one (of the Brexit negotiations) and allow us all to move on to phase two.

    I am surprised and disappointed that the British government now appears not to be in a position to conclude what was agreed earlier today. I accept that the prime minister has asked for more time, and I know that she faces many challenges and I acknowledge that she is negotiating in good faith.

    But my position and that of the Irish government is unequivocal and is supported by all the parties in Dail Eirann and I believe the majority of people on these islands. Ireland wants to proceed to phase two - It’s very much in our interests to do so. However we cannot agree to do this unless we have firm guarantees that there will not be a hard border in Ireland under any circumstances."

    - The Guardian

    Varadkar's statement at the press conference is crystal clear.

    If we don't move on to stage two then there will be a hard border in Ireland.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,603

    So we either get a deal by Friday, or the government collapses by Monday.

    PM Jezza by Christmas?

    PM someone by Christmas. As the debris continues to fall all around, is it not now utterly clear that May is done? The Irish have told us that a deal was done and on the record - expect that document to be leaked by bedtime. And what a deal - one that was immediately kyboshed by Arlene the Bigot. And one that reportedly has enraged just about everyone in the Tory party from both wings.

    You have to hand it to her. As Omnishambles go, this is a doozy. And best of all, so much bad blood generated by the fiasco that you have to ask is there *any* form of words that is now acceptable to both Forster and Varadkhar that satisfies both the Tory foaming-dog-fever brigade and Junker?

    So she's gone because "leave her in as the least worst option" no longer washes. Question is who is there in their ranks capable of unity? Anyone want to volunteer a name? But as was pointed out on the previous thread, given the choice of vote confidence in the government or be turned out via an election or not, I'd expect the government to pass the vote that my party will bring.

    A zombie government. The Tories trapped in office bound by ice having to eat* each other to survive. Whats left at the end in 2022 will be put down by the voters. An Extinction Level Event for the party.

    *despite that memo in circulation suggesting otherwise, I meant Tory MPs eating each other in relation to cannibalism, not thingy...
    An extinction level event? Not one poll has Corbyn getting a majority above 10 and ICM today even has the Tories still as largest party
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587

    AndyJS said:

    Rolling average of the last 10 opinion polls:

    Lab 41.4%
    Con 39.7%
    LD 7.2%
    UKIP 4.2%
    Greens 2.5%

    Seats with ElectoralCalculus (current boundaries):

    Lab 294
    Con 285
    LD 14
    Greens 1
    SNP 34
    PC 4

    Corbyn wouldn't have the votes to do too much Marxist BS with that.

    Unless he called a second election, but he'd need Tory support for that, or to repeal the FTPA with SNP support.
    It's an interesting point - having fought the last election on the "coalition of chaos" theme, the Tories will face voters feeling that giving Corbyn a try but making him dependent on moderate MPs and other parties isn't such a bad idea.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,746

    Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @blairmcdougall: Surely it's time for Labour to step up & say blindingly obvious: to avoid a political & economic crisis we need to leave EU but stay in Single Market & Customs Union. It's a compromise that could unite the vast majority who are neither hardliners nor seeking to overturn result.

    @Alison_McGovern: This x 1million twitter.com/laboursinglemk…

    @laboursinglemkt: Hard Brexit isn't only a threat to jobs, rights & future wealth, but to the UK’s territorial integrity. If we don’t want a border in Northern Ireland, the whole of the UK must stay in the single market & customs union.

    What's the point leaving the EU but staying in the SM and customs union?
    It's the option that involves shooting ourselves in the foot the least.
    No it really isn't. Leaving the EU but staying in the Customs Union is the ultimate dumb idea. No wonder so many Remainers are keen on it - although to their credit a few do realise how stupid an idea it is.

    Surely it's only a bad idea if you think that outside the CU will can negotiate trade deals so magnificent they make up for not being in it.

    As someone who has said they want to keep as close a trading relationship as possible with the EU whilst respecting Brexit, you have to choose. CU or EEA. You cannot have both.

    I choose being in the Single Market and the Customs Union!

    I take it that if Corbyn wins the next election, you will respect the result and the policies, help make it a success and not try to overturn the result.

    I just don't get this "respect" thing. It is an awful weasel word. The referendum should never have been called. The conduct on both sides was a disgrace. The result is uninformed and a catastrophe for the UK and its citizens. What is there to respect?

    I'm doing all I can personally to get it reversed and cheer on days like today.
    Absolutely I would respect the result. I would reserve the right to vote against him at the following election if he is seen to fail the country but I certainly wouldn't try and use underhand and dishonest methods to get him out of power.

    Unlike you I respect democracy. You don't deserve it.
    The only underhand and dishonest methods were those used in the referendum.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,746
    edited December 2017

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
    The UK staying in the single market and customs union is totally incompatible with leaving the EU. So no its not a realistic suggestion, any more than my three year old telling me she should have chocolate for breakfast, lunch and dinner is a realistic suggestion.

    It may be what you want, but its not an option, so what else is acceptable?
    Norway is in the Single Market but not the EU. Turkey is in the Customs Union but not the EU. The EU is not the EEA or the CU. The vote was on the EU. What you chose to infer "EU" means is up to you, but we absolutely can leave the EU and remain in the EEA and CU.
    Your own examples contradict you.

    Norway is not in the Customs Union.
    Turkey is not in either the EEA or the Customs Union, though it has a customs union.

    Please pick any example that is both in the Customs Union and the EEA but not the EU.
    The UK in five years time with a bespoke agreement? There's a first time for everything.
    Name one good reason we should be in both the customs union and the single market but not the EU. It is the worst of all worlds.
    It is worse than staying in the EU but it is the least worse option that respects :spit: the result of the referendum.
    Good to see you confirming my view of you by spitting on democracy.
    (-:
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    The Tory government since 2010 have completely screwed this country. I can't remember such a shambolic self serving load of shits posing as a government in my lifetime.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AndyJS said:

    Rolling average of the last 10 opinion polls:

    Lab 41.4%
    Con 39.7%
    LD 7.2%
    UKIP 4.2%
    Greens 2.5%

    Seats with ElectoralCalculus (current boundaries):

    Lab 294
    Con 285
    LD 14
    Greens 1
    SNP 34
    PC 4

    HYUFD will not agree with you. To him the Tories would be 30 seats ahead.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited December 2017
    I see the BBC missed a rather important detail out of the story..

    The Old Bailey heard Marek Zakrocki shouted "white power" before using his van as a weapon outside Spicy Night in Harrow on 23 June. The 48-year-old window fitter was heard to say "I'm going to kill a Muslim. I'm doing it for Britain".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-42223156

    I'm doing it for Britain, said the Polish man.
  • Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @blairmcdougall: Surely it's time for Labour to step up & say blindingly obvious: to avoid a political & economic crisis we need to leave EU but stay in Single Market & Customs Union. It's a compromise that could unite the vast majority who are neither hardliners nor seeking to overturn result.

    @Alison_McGovern: This x 1million twitter.com/laboursinglemk…

    @laboursinglemkt: Hard Brexit isn't only a threat to jobs, rights & future wealth, but to the UK’s territorial integrity. If we don’t want a border in Northern Ireland, the whole of the UK must stay in the single market & customs union.

    What's the point leaving the EU but staying in the SM and customs union?
    It's the option that involves shooting ourselves in the foot the least.
    No it really isn't. Leaving the EU but staying in the Customs Union is the ultimate dumb idea. No wonder so many Remainers are keen on it - although to their credit a few do realise how stupid an idea it is.

    Surely it's only a bad idea if you think that outside the CU will can negotiate trade deals so magnificent they make up for not being in it.

    As someone who has said they want to keep as close a trading relationship as possible with the EU whilst respecting Brexit, you have to choose. CU or EEA. You cannot have both.

    I choose being in the Single Market and the Customs Union!

    I take it that if Corbyn wins the next election, you will respect the result and the policies, help make it a success and not try to overturn the result.

    I just don't get this "respect" thing. It is an awful weasel word. The referendum should never have been called. The conduct on both sides was a disgrace. The result is uninformed and a catastrophe for the UK and its citizens. What is there to respect?

    I'm doing all I can personally to get it reversed and cheer on days like today.
    Absolutely I would respect the result. I would reserve the right to vote against him at the following election if he is seen to fail the country but I certainly wouldn't try and use underhand and dishonest methods to get him out of power.

    Unlike you I respect democracy. You don't deserve it.
    The only underhand and dishonest methods were those used in the referendum.
    The cry of losers down the centuries. We woz cheated. Sad to see you continuing that sorry tradition.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,746
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
    The UK staying in the single market and customs union is totally incompatible with leaving the EU. So no its not a realistic suggestion, any more than my three year old telling me she should have chocolate for breakfast, lunch and dinner is a realistic suggestion.

    It may be what you want, but its not an option, so what else is acceptable?
    Norway is in the Single Market but not the EU. Turkey is in the Customs Union but not the EU. The EU is not the EEA or the CU. The vote was on the EU. What you chose to infer "EU" means is up to you, but we absolutely can leave the EU and remain in the EEA and CU.
    Your own examples contradict you.

    Norway is not in the Customs Union.
    Turkey is not in either the EEA or the Customs Union, though it has a customs union.

    Please pick any example that is both in the Customs Union and the EEA but not the EU.
    The UK in five years time with a bespoke agreement? There's a first time for everything.
    Name one good reason we should be in both the customs union and the single market but not the EU. It is the worst of all worlds.
    It is worse than staying in the EU but it is the least worse option that respects :spit: the result of the referendum.
    It does not respect the Leave vote to end free movement, so only a FTA will do
    The Leave vote was to leave the EU for various reasons. We've been through this before. It is unlikely that over 50.0% points of the 51.8% Leave vote was to end free movement. It was almost certainly a minority vote.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,240
    HYUFD said:

    An extinction level event? Not one poll has Corbyn getting a majority above 10 and ICM today even has the Tories still as largest party

    We haven't had Brexit yet.

    Whether Brexit will boost the Conservatives' standing in the polls or damage it is clearly debatable, but surely most will agree it will have some effect.
  • HYUFD said:



    It does not respect the Leave vote to end free movement, so only a FTA will do

    We can restrict free movement from within either the EU or EFTA. I know that some people want to completely end free movement, but they can't have it. As the Kentish fruit industry said earlier, WTO means not only fresh produce rotting at the ports unable to get in, it means fresh produce rotting in our fields with no-one to pick it.

    The good people of Boston voted heavily to leave wanting shut of all the foreigners. All the foreigners came to do the jobs in the food industry they don't want to do. Its easy for middle class types with a desk job to say "end free movement". Its apparently easy for lazy wankers to say "end free movement". OK. We ended it. You go pick vegetables. You go work in the factory. What do you mean no? This is what you wanted mush now go and graft. Or - as the CEO of Chapel Down said this morning - "we'll all starve".

    I get the distinct impression that several posters on here either think their ideological view trumps hard evidence from the industry, or they don't care if we starve or not.
  • surbiton said:

    "The Irish negotiating team received confirmation from the British government and the Barnier taskforce that the United Kingdom had agreed a text on the border that met our concerns.

    This text would form a part of the broader EU/UK agreement on phase one (of the Brexit negotiations) and allow us all to move on to phase two.

    I am surprised and disappointed that the British government now appears not to be in a position to conclude what was agreed earlier today. I accept that the prime minister has asked for more time, and I know that she faces many challenges and I acknowledge that she is negotiating in good faith.

    But my position and that of the Irish government is unequivocal and is supported by all the parties in Dail Eirann and I believe the majority of people on these islands. Ireland wants to proceed to phase two - It’s very much in our interests to do so. However we cannot agree to do this unless we have firm guarantees that there will not be a hard border in Ireland under any circumstances."

    - The Guardian

    Varadkar's statement at the press conference is crystal clear.

    If we don't move on to stage two then there will be a hard border in Ireland.
    Yes - the exquisite irony!

    TM should state that the UK government will not erect customs posts on the border uner any circunmstances. Under WTO crash out the Irish government may have to build them by EU dicatat!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited December 2017
    House of Cards to resume production with Robin Wright as lead. The final season of House of Cards will resume production in 2018 without actor Kevin Spacey.

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2017/dec/04/house-of-cards-to-resume-production-for-final-season-without-kevin-spacey

    Rogeradamus strikes again.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @blairmcdougall: Surely it's time for Labour to step up & say blindingly obvious: to avoid a political & economic crisis we need to leave EU but stay in Single Market & Customs Union. It's a compromise that could unite the vast majority who are neither hardliners nor seeking to overturn result.

    @Alison_McGovern: This x 1million twitter.com/laboursinglemk…

    @laboursinglemkt: Hard Brexit isn't only a threat to jobs, rights & future wealth, but to the UK’s territorial integrity. If we don’t want a border in Northern Ireland, the whole of the UK must stay in the single market & customs union.

    What's the point leaving the EU but staying in the SM and customs union?
    It's the option that involves shooting ourselves in the foot the least.
    No it really isn't. Leaving the EU but staying in the Customs Union is the ultimate dumb idea. No wonder so many Remainers are keen on it - although to their credit a few do realise how stupid an idea it is.

    Surely it's only a bad idea if you think that outside the CU will can negotiate trade deals so magnificent they make up for not being in it.

    As someone who has said they want to keep as close a trading relationship as possible with the EU whilst respecting Brexit, you have to choose. CU or EEA. You cannot have both.

    I choose being in the Single Market and the Customs Union!

    You have always said you respected the result of the referendum and we should leave the EU. It is one of the things that has set you apart from other Remoaners on here. If you are abandoning that position then unfortunately you have abandoned any intellectual and moral integrity as well.
    I take it that if Corbyn wins the next election, you will respect the result and the policies, help make it a success and not try to overturn the result.

    I just don't get this "respect" thing. It is an awful weasel word. The referendum should never have been called. The conduct on both sides was a disgrace. The result is uninformed and a catastrophe for the UK and its citizens. What is there to respect?

    I'm doing all I can personally to get it reversed and cheer on days like today.
    It'll all be forgotten after the second referendum.
    Yes. The second ref will mean that all this was just a nightmare.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,746

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
    The UK staying in the single market and customs union is totally incompatible with leaving the EU. So no its not a realistic suggestion, any more than my three year old telling me she should have chocolate for breakfast, lunch and dinner is a realistic suggestion.

    It may be what you want, but its not an option, so what else is acceptable?
    Norway is in the Single Market but not the EU. Turkey is in the Customs Union but not the EU. The EU is not the EEA or the CU. The vote was on the EU. What you chose to infer "EU" means is up to you, but we absolutely can leave the EU and remain in the EEA and CU.
    Your own examples contradict you.

    Norway is not in the Customs Union.
    Turkey is not in either the EEA or the Customs Union, though it has a customs union.

    Please pick any example that is both in the Customs Union and the EEA but not the EU.
    The UK in five years time with a bespoke agreement? There's a first time for everything.
    Name one good reason we should be in both the customs union and the single market but not the EU. It is the worst of all worlds.
    It is worse than staying in the EU but it is the least worse option that respects :spit: the result of the referendum.
    No it doesn't, since it is just staying in the EU in another name but sacrificing our voting powers. Which is why not one country in Europe is dumb enough to do what you propose.
    I'm not proposing it. It is dumb for the reasons you say. It is just not as dumb as the other options. I propose we stay in the EU.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,603
    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    Rolling average of the last 10 opinion polls:

    Lab 41.4%
    Con 39.7%
    LD 7.2%
    UKIP 4.2%
    Greens 2.5%

    Seats with ElectoralCalculus (current boundaries):

    Lab 294
    Con 285
    LD 14
    Greens 1
    SNP 34
    PC 4

    HYUFD will not agree with you. To him the Tories would be 30 seats ahead.
    On a 2% swing from Tory to Labour the Tories would be on 288 seats and Labour on 290 seats so almost neck and neck if Labour did not pick up any SNP seats
  • HYUFD said:

    An extinction level event? Not one poll has Corbyn getting a majority above 10 and ICM today even has the Tories still as largest party

    We haven't had Brexit yet.

    Whether Brexit will boost the Conservatives' standing in the polls or damage it is clearly debatable, but surely most will agree it will have some effect.
    1. We seem increasingly unlikely to get a deal that May can get past her own party or the Orange Bigots
    2. No deal means WTO means no trade means massive economic crash
    3. The Tories already seen as owning why we had a referendum and owning the failing inept negotiations will be seen as owning the calamity
    4. People don't vote for idiot politicians who put their own gain ahead of the national interest. Wither the Liberals. And LibDems.

    You have been the 'natural party of government' but that doesn't mean you go on forever. All Good Things must come to an end...

  • Well ignorance seems to be all that Brexit is about. Apparntly we can just tell the foreign types to eff orf and go WTO but then just open our borders only to the EU.

    All I want is this - for free trade to continue on the day we leave the EU. As it become crystal clear from anyone who actually trades we cannot go WTO without collapsing our economy in its current form. Therefore compromise is needed.

    I am open to whatever form that compromise is - but we have to have some. As the Tory press and various MPs seem to believe their own "expert" opinion over those of the experts, I don't hold out much hope.

    You don't get to reply in the general to the specific. I have certainly not said I favour a WTO Brexit so you are just creating straw men.

    This is not about compromise in this instance, it is about the legal constraints of treaties. What you want - to leave the EU but remain in both the CU and the EEA is not legally possible. Unless of course you are suggesting that EFTA and the EU should abandon their longs standing treaties just to accommodate us. Which would of course be the height of arrogance on our part.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,777

    HYUFD said:



    It does not respect the Leave vote to end free movement, so only a FTA will do

    We can restrict free movement from within either the EU or EFTA. I know that some people want to completely end free movement, but they can't have it. As the Kentish fruit industry said earlier, WTO means not only fresh produce rotting at the ports unable to get in, it means fresh produce rotting in our fields with no-one to pick it.

    The good people of Boston voted heavily to leave wanting shut of all the foreigners. All the foreigners came to do the jobs in the food industry they don't want to do. Its easy for middle class types with a desk job to say "end free movement". Its apparently easy for lazy wankers to say "end free movement". OK. We ended it. You go pick vegetables. You go work in the factory. What do you mean no? This is what you wanted mush now go and graft. Or - as the CEO of Chapel Down said this morning - "we'll all starve".

    I get the distinct impression that several posters on here either think their ideological view trumps hard evidence from the industry, or they don't care if we starve or not.
    I suspect the people on Boston who voted for brexit are not middle class but the working class - equally I suspect that they wouldn’t want the low pay Labour intensive work that the recently arrived Eastern Europeans do - but common sense isn’t a strong point here.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,603
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
    The UK staying in the single market and customs union is totally incompatible with leaving the EU. So no its not a realistic suggestion, any more than my three year old telling me she should have chocolate for breakfast, lunch and dinner is a realistic suggestion.

    It may be what you want, but its not an option, so what else is acceptable?
    Norway is in the Single Market but not the EU. Turkey is in the Customs Union but not the EU. The EU at is both in the Customs Union and the EEA but not the EU.
    The UK in five years time with a bespoke agreement? There's a first time for everything.
    Name one good reason we should be in both the customs union and the single market but not the EU. It is the worst of all worlds.
    It is worse than staying in the EU but it is the least worse option that respects :spit: the result of the referendum.
    It does not respect the Leave vote to end free movement, so only a FTA will do
    The Leave vote was to leave the EU for various reasons. We've been through this before. It is unlikely that over 50.0% points of the 51.8% Leave vote was to end free movement. It was almost certainly a minority vote.
    The 2 key reasons for voting to Leave were to regain sovereignty and end free movement, Leave would never have got over 50% without promising to end free movement
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    edited December 2017
    It'll all be forgotten after the second referendum.

    Yes. The second ref will mean that all this was just a nightmare.

    I wouldn't like to hazard a guess as to what the outcome of a second referendum, the wording and context of which we know nothing, would be.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,603
    edited December 2017

    HYUFD said:

    An extinction level event? Not one poll has Corbyn getting a majority above 10 and ICM today even has the Tories still as largest party

    We haven't had Brexit yet.

    Whether Brexit will boost the Conservatives' standing in the polls or damage it is clearly debatable, but surely most will agree it will have some effect.
    Tory voters almost universally support Brexit now, most for ideological reasons and most voted Leave
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited December 2017
    Barnesian said:


    The Leave vote was to leave the EU for various reasons. We've been through this before. It is unlikely that over 50.0% points of the 51.8% Leave vote was to end free movement. It was almost certainly a minority vote.

    No, you can't get away with that! You are right that not all of the Leave vote was necessarily motivated by curbing or ending freedom of movement, but that doesn't mean that everyone who voted Remain was in favour of keeping it. Personally, although I voted Remain, I thought that the only strong argument on the Leave side was precisely that leaving the EU would allow the UK more control over EU migration, which has been disruptively high. I'm sure many other people felt the same way.

    Leaving the EU whilst keeping FoM really would be the worst of all possible combinations: the economic damage of leaving without the main benefit.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    Rolling average of the last 10 opinion polls:

    Lab 41.4%
    Con 39.7%
    LD 7.2%
    UKIP 4.2%
    Greens 2.5%

    Seats with ElectoralCalculus (current boundaries):

    Lab 294
    Con 285
    LD 14
    Greens 1
    SNP 34
    PC 4

    HYUFD will not agree with you. To him the Tories would be 30 seats ahead.
    On a 2% swing from Tory to Labour the Tories would be on 288 seats and Labour on 290 seats so almost neck and neck if Labour did not pick up any SNP seats
    But Labour will pick SNP seats - 20 of them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,603
    edited December 2017

    HYUFD said:



    It does not respect the Leave vote to end free movement, so only a FTA will do

    We can restrict free movement from within either the EU or EFTA. I know that some people want to completely end free movement, but they can't have it. As the Kentish fruit industry said earlier, WTO means not only fresh produce rotting at the ports unable to get in, it means fresh produce rotting in our fields with no-one to pick it.

    The good people of Boston voted heavily to leave wanting shut of all the foreigners. All the foreigners came to do the jobs in the food industry they don't want to do. Its easy for middle class types with a desk job to say "end free movement". Its apparently easy for lazy wankers to say "end free movement". OK. We ended it. You go pick vegetables. You go work in the factory. What do you mean no? This is what you wanted mush now go and graft. Or - as the CEO of Chapel Down said this morning - "we'll all starve".

    I get the distinct impression that several posters on here either think their ideological view trumps hard evidence from the industry, or they don't care if we starve or not.
    No. We cannot end free movement in the single market and nor does ending free movement mean no immigration, it would simply be replaced by work permits.

    Though of course if Blair had introduced transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 free movement would not now still be such an issue and we would probably have narrowly voted Remain.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    House of Cards to resume production with Robin Wright as lead. The final season of House of Cards will resume production in 2018 without actor Kevin Spacey.

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2017/dec/04/house-of-cards-to-resume-production-for-final-season-without-kevin-spacey

    Rogeradamus strikes again.

    House of Cards is going in Westminster right now !
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276

    HYUFD said:



    The good people of Boston voted heavily to leave wanting shut of all the foreigners. All the foreigners came to do the jobs in the food industry they don't want to do. Its easy for middle class types with a desk job to say "end free movement". Its apparently easy for lazy wankers to say "end free movement". OK. We ended it. You go pick vegetables. You go work in the factory. What do you mean no? This is what you wanted mush now go and graft. Or - as the CEO of Chapel Down said this morning - "we'll all starve".

    Free movement suppressed wages, reduced labour availability will drive up the price of it, making jobs more compelling to locals.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,603
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    Rolling average of the last 10 opinion polls:

    Lab 41.4%
    Con 39.7%
    LD 7.2%
    UKIP 4.2%
    Greens 2.5%

    Seats with ElectoralCalculus (current boundaries):

    Lab 294
    Con 285
    LD 14
    Greens 1
    SNP 34
    PC 4

    HYUFD will not agree with you. To him the Tories would be 30 seats ahead.
    On a 2% swing from Tory to Labour the Tories would be on 288 seats and Labour on 290 seats so almost neck and neck if Labour did not pick up any SNP seats
    But Labour will pick SNP seats - 20 of them.
    On what poll? Most polls have little change in Scotland from June
  • Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @blairmcdougall: Surely it's time for Labour to step up & say blindingly obvious: to avoid a political & economic crisis we need to leave EU but stay in Single Market & Customs Union. It's a compromise that could unite the vast majority who are neither hardliners nor seeking to overturn result.

    @Alison_McGovern: This x 1million twitter.com/laboursinglemk…

    @laboursinglemkt: Hard Brexit isn't only a threat to jobs, rights & future wealth, but to the UK’s territorial integrity. If we don’t want a border in Northern Ireland, the whole of the UK must stay in the single market & customs union.

    What's the point leaving the EU but staying in the SM and customs union?
    It's the option that involves shooting ourselves in the foot the least.
    No it really isn't. Leaving the EU but staying in the Customs Union is the ultimate dumb idea. No wonder so many Remainers are keen on it - although to their credit a few do realise how stupid an idea it is.

    Surely it's only a bad idea if you think that outside the CU will can negotiate trade deals so magnificent they make up for not being in it.

    That depends on your presumption that it is impossible to do good trade deals outside the EU. It also depends on the presumption that all trade deals done by the EU will be in the best interests of the UK.

    The only thing that is absolutely certain is that if we are inside the Customs Union we cannot do our own trade deals. It also removes the possibility of joining EFTA and so cuts off a route for returning to the EEA and the Single Market - which is a far more valuable position than being in the CU.

    As someone who has said they want to keep as close a trading relationship as possible with the EU whilst respecting Brexit, you have to choose. CU or EEA. You cannot have both.

    I choose being in the Single Market and the Customs Union!

    You have always said you respected the result of the referendum and we should leave the EU. It is one of the things that has set you apart from other Remoaners on here. If you are abandoning that position then unfortunately you have abandoned any intellectual and moral integrity as well.

    Nope - I understand we have to leave. I don't have to like it, though!

    My Brexit hope remains constant - we get one that does the least harm possible.

  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,017
    edited December 2017
    For the first time since June 2016 I’m starting to believe that there will be no Brexit or at least an incredibly soft one. The whole thing is a mess and I doubt the government can square the circle of the Irish border with the DUP and Dublin both wanting polar opposites.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    The irony of all ironies is that had May not called the election in June, tonight we would be moving towards trade talks !
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    It does not respect the Leave vote to end free movement, so only a FTA will do

    We can restrict free movement from within either the EU or EFTA. I know that some people want to completely end free movement, but they can't have it. As the Kentish fruit industry said earlier, WTO means not only fresh produce rotting at the ports unable to get in, it means fresh produce rotting in our fields with no-one to pick it.

    The good people of Boston voted heavily to leave wanting shut of all the foreigners. All the foreigners came to do the jobs in the food industry they don't want to do. Its easy for middle class types with a desk job to say "end free movement". Its apparently easy for lazy wankers to say "end free movement". OK. We ended it. You go pick vegetables. You go work in the factory. What do you mean no? This is what you wanted mush now go and graft. Or - as the CEO of Chapel Down said this morning - "we'll all starve".

    I get the distinct impression that several posters on here either think their ideological view trumps hard evidence from the industry, or they don't care if we starve or not.
    No. We cannot end free movement in the single market and nor does ending free movement mean no immigration, it would simply be replaced by work permits.

    Though of course if Blair had introduced transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 free movement would not now still be such an issue and we would probably have narrowly voted Remain.
    Possibly time I reminded people that we had an agricultural workers scheme (SAWS) from 1945-2013. The composition of those workers varied over time; in the last year of operation, it was dominated by Bulgarian and Romanian workers. No one really wants to pick fruit for a living.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,287
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    An extinction level event? Not one poll has Corbyn getting a majority above 10 and ICM today even has the Tories still as largest party

    We haven't had Brexit yet.

    Whether Brexit will boost the Conservatives' standing in the polls or damage it is clearly debatable, but surely most will agree it will have some effect.
    Tory voters almost universally support Brexit now, most for ideological reasons and most voted Leave
    Because the others are drifting away.
  • For the first time since June 2016 I’m starting to believe that there will be no Brexit or at least an incredibly soft one. The whole thing is a mess and I doubt the government can square the circle of the Irish border with the DUP and Dublin both wanting polar opposites.

    Like I said earlier, after today's fiasco is there a form of words that both Belfast and Dublin can accept that will do the job it needs to do?
  • Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @blairmcdougall: Surely it's time for Labour to step up & say blindingly obvious: to avoid a political & economic crisis we need to leave EU but stay in Single Market & Customs Union. It's a compromise that could unite the vast majority who are neither hardliners nor seeking to overturn result.

    @Alison_McGovern: This x 1million twitter.com/laboursinglemk…

    @laboursinglemkt: Hard Brexit isn't only a threat to jobs, rights & future wealth, but to the UK’s territorial integrity. If we don’t want a border in Northern Ireland, the whole of the UK must stay in the single market & customs union.

    What's the point leaving the EU but staying in the SM and customs union?
    It's the option that involves shooting ourselves in the foot the least.
    No it really isn't. Leaving the EU but staying in the Customs Union is the ultimate dumb idea. No wonder so many Remainers are keen on it - although to their credit a few do realise how stupid an idea it is.

    Surely it's only a bad idea if you think that outside the CU will can negotiate trade deals so magnificent they make up for not being in it.

    That depends on your presumption that it is impossible to do good trade deals outside the EU. It also depends on the presumption that all trade deals done by the EU will be in the best interests of the UK.

    The only thing that is absolutely certain is that if we are inside the Customs Union we cannot do our own trade deals. It also removes the possibility of joining EFTA and so cuts off a route for returning to the EEA and the Single Market - which is a far more valuable position than being in the CU.

    As someone who has said they want to keep as close a trading relationship as possible with the EU whilst respecting Brexit, you have to choose. CU or EEA. You cannot have both.

    I choose being in the Single Market and the Customs Union!

    You have always said you respected the result of the referendum and we should leave the EU. It is one of the things that has set you apart from other Remoaners on here. If you are abandoning that position then unfortunately you have abandoned any intellectual and moral integrity as well.

    Nope - I understand we have to leave. I don't have to like it, though!

    My Brexit hope remains constant - we get one that does the least harm possible.

    In which case we return to the original point. You have to choose. CU or Single Market. You cannot have both.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,603
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    An extinction level event? Not one poll has Corbyn getting a majority above 10 and ICM today even has the Tories still as largest party

    We haven't had Brexit yet.

    Whether Brexit will boost the Conservatives' standing in the polls or damage it is clearly debatable, but surely most will agree it will have some effect.
    Tory voters almost universally support Brexit now, most for ideological reasons and most voted Leave
    Because the others are drifting away.
    They aren't actually, if anything the biggest shift since June has been from Tory to UKIP as they think the Tories are not pro Brexit enough
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,729
    edited December 2017

    So we either get a deal by Friday, or the government collapses by Monday.

    PM Jezza by Christmas?

    PM someone by Christmas.
    Betfair still thinks it's pretty unlikely - 16-1 available.

    (T May Exit Date Market - by year)
  • For the first time since June 2016 I’m starting to believe that there will be no Brexit or at least an incredibly soft one. The whole thing is a mess and I doubt the government can square the circle of the Irish border with the DUP and Dublin both wanting polar opposites.

    Join the club! I have said from the day of the result that this wont happen.

    However, it needs a public 'think again' vote, rather than some fudgy mess imho.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,028
    MikeL said:

    So we either get a deal by Friday, or the government collapses by Monday.

    PM Jezza by Christmas?

    PM someone by Christmas.
    14-1 available on Betfair

    (T May Exit Date Market)
    These are very far from the same things.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,720

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Alistair said:

    Omnium said:

    I don't particularly like our country's future being shaped by the DUP, but I'd prefer that than it being shaped by the Irish government.

    Ireland can and should make some sort of an effort to help find a solution that works for everyone. If they adopt that attitude then we should take every step to meet them halfway, or even go the extra mile ourselves. Not doing that, and it seems they're not, is unwise.

    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: Why won't they suggest a plan that works
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brextier: Why won't they suggest anything
    Ireland: The UK should stay in the single market and customs union
    Brexiter: It's like they want hard Brexit.
    The UK staying in the single market and customs union is totally incompatible with leaving the EU. So no its not a realistic

    It may be what you want, but its not an option, so what else is acceptable?
    Norway is in the Single Market but not the EU. Turkey is in the Customs Union but not the EU. The EU is not the EEA or the CU. The vote was on the EU. What you chose to infer "EU" means is up to you, but we absolutely can leave the EU and remain in the EEA and CU.
    Your own examples contradict you.

    Norway is not in the Customs Union.
    Turkey is not in either the EEA or the Customs Union, though it has a customs union.

    Please pick any example that is both in the Customs Union and the EEA but not the EU.
    The UK in five years time with a bespoke agreement? There's a first time for everything.
    Name one good reason we should be in both the customs union and the single market but not the EU. It is the worst of all worlds.
    It is worse than staying in the EU but it is the least worse option that respects :spit: the result of the referendum.
    No it doesn't, since it is just staying in the EU in another name but sacrificing our voting powers. Which is why not one country in Europe is dumb enough to do what you propose.
    There are little enclaves and exclaves that are in the EU, but not part of the EU Customs Union, or part of the Customs Union but not part of the EU, but I don't see how it can make sense for an entire country, or large part of a country to be in that position - and not in the interest of the EU either.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,406

    For the first time since June 2016 I’m starting to believe that there will be no Brexit or at least an incredibly soft one. The whole thing is a mess and I doubt the government can square the circle of the Irish border with the DUP and Dublin both wanting polar opposites.

    Like I said earlier, after today's fiasco is there a form of words that both Belfast and Dublin can accept that will do the job it needs to do?
    Probably there is a form of words.
    But if there isn’t - I don’t see that hard Brexit is ruled out..

    We could just leave, go for a hard Border in Northern Ireland and abandon trade talks until the Irish forgive us. Bad for the economy - yes. But the Brexiteers would love it - and if it saved £30bn it might not even be unpopular until the economic damage came....
  • John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    It does not respect the Leave vote to end free movement, so only a FTA will do

    We can restrict free movement from within either the EU or EFTA. I know that some people want to completely end free movement, but they can't have it. As the Kentish fruit industry said earlier, WTO means not only fresh produce rotting at the ports unable to get in, it means fresh produce rotting in our fields with no-one to pick it.

    The good people of Boston voted heavily to leave wanting shut of all the foreigners. All the foreigners came to do the jobs in the food industry they don't want to do. Its easy for middle class types with a desk job to say "end free movement". Its apparently easy for lazy wankers to say "end free movement". OK. We ended it. You go pick vegetables. You go work in the factory. What do you mean no? This is what you wanted mush now go and graft. Or - as the CEO of Chapel Down said this morning - "we'll all starve".

    I get the distinct impression that several posters on here either think their ideological view trumps hard evidence from the industry, or they don't care if we starve or not.
    No. We cannot end free movement in the single market and nor does ending free movement mean no immigration, it would simply be replaced by work permits.

    Though of course if Blair had introduced transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 free movement would not now still be such an issue and we would probably have narrowly voted Remain.
    Possibly time I reminded people that we had an agricultural workers scheme (SAWS) from 1945-2013. The composition of those workers varied over time; in the last year of operation, it was dominated by Bulgarian and Romanian workers. No one really wants to pick fruit for a living.
    According to William Keegan in Observer this weekend, Blair did this because of advice from Mervyn King that it would keep inflation down.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    Rolling average of the last 10 opinion polls:

    Lab 41.4%
    Con 39.7%
    LD 7.2%
    UKIP 4.2%
    Greens 2.5%

    Seats with ElectoralCalculus (current boundaries):

    Lab 294
    Con 285
    LD 14
    Greens 1
    SNP 34
    PC 4

    HYUFD will not agree with you. To him the Tories would be 30 seats ahead.
    On a 2% swing from Tory to Labour the Tories would be on 288 seats and Labour on 290 seats so almost neck and neck if Labour did not pick up any SNP seats
    But Labour will pick SNP seats - 20 of them.
    On what poll? Most polls have little change in Scotland from June
    The Survation Scotland poll suggests 7 Labour gains from the SNP. In reality, I would expect Labour to pick up a lot more.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,746
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    An extinction level event? Not one poll has Corbyn getting a majority above 10 and ICM today even has the Tories still as largest party

    We haven't had Brexit yet.

    Whether Brexit will boost the Conservatives' standing in the polls or damage it is clearly debatable, but surely most will agree it will have some effect.
    Tory voters almost universally support Brexit now, most for ideological reasons and most voted Leave
    Because the others are drifting away.
    They aren't actually, if anything the biggest shift since June has been from Tory to UKIP as they think the Tories are not pro Brexit enough
    This year the gap between Tory+UKIP and Labour has dropped from 25% to 3%.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Oh dear.

    It appears May really did think she had a deal, but forgot to ask the DUP.

    She scheduled a statement in the HoC tomorrow to present it to MPs...

    Unlucky!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,729
    edited December 2017
    Omnium said:

    MikeL said:

    So we either get a deal by Friday, or the government collapses by Monday.

    PM Jezza by Christmas?

    PM someone by Christmas.
    14-1 available on Betfair

    (T May Exit Date Market)
    These are very far from the same things.
    Not if someone else was to be PM by Christmas.

    Of course I realise May might lose a vote amongst Con MPs (or announce she's standing down) and trigger a leadership election such that May remains leader into 2018. But if she does she will still be PM at Christmas.

    And a GE is legally impossible before Christmas.

    Unless a GE is called within the next 4 hours the first possible date for a GE is 18th Jan (assuming it's a Thursday).
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    IanB2 said:

    JohnLoony said:

    I'm getting increasingly fed up with this continuing mush and slush and fuff and guff. Let's just have an immediate hard Brexit, with no divorce bill, no Article 50 timetable, no deal, and Boris Gove-Mogg as PM.

    There doesn't have to be a hard border in Ireland. Let it continue to flow freely just as it is now. If pedantic lawyers try to pretend that there needs to be a hard border "somewhere", let them build it themselves with the sweat of their own elbows.

    You don't need to try so hard to rejustify your username, John.
    RoyalBlue said:

    If he wants to make life difficult for us, I see no reason why we should bend over backwards to help him.
    RoyalBlue said:

    If he wants to make life difficult for us, I see no reason why we should bend over backwards to help him.
    He's helping us. We are better informed about what is going on.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    surbiton said:

    The irony of all ironies is that had May not called the election in June, tonight we would be moving towards trade talks !

    Haven't you been reading HYUFD and Sunil's posts? The election was a triumph
  • rkrkrk said:

    For the first time since June 2016 I’m starting to believe that there will be no Brexit or at least an incredibly soft one. The whole thing is a mess and I doubt the government can square the circle of the Irish border with the DUP and Dublin both wanting polar opposites.

    Like I said earlier, after today's fiasco is there a form of words that both Belfast and Dublin can accept that will do the job it needs to do?
    Probably there is a form of words.
    But if there isn’t - I don’t see that hard Brexit is ruled out..

    We could just leave, go for a hard Border in Northern Ireland and abandon trade talks until the Irish forgive us. Bad for the economy - yes. But the Brexiteers would love it - and if it saved £30bn it might not even be unpopular until the economic damage came....
    er, Good Friday Agreement?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    It does not respect the Leave vote to end free movement, so only a FTA will do

    We can restrict free movement from within either the EU or EFTA. I know that some people want to completely end free movement, but they can't have it. As the Kentish fruit industry said earlier, WTO means not only fresh produce rotting at the ports unable to get in, it means fresh produce rotting in our fields with no-one to pick it.

    The good people of Boston voted heavily to leave wanting shut of all the foreigners. All the foreigners came to do the jobs in the food industry they don't want to do. Its easy for middle class types with a desk job to say "end free movement". Its apparently easy for lazy wankers to say "end free movement". OK. We ended it. You go pick vegetables. You go work in the factory. What do you mean no? This is what you wanted mush now go and graft. Or - as the CEO of Chapel Down said this morning - "we'll all starve".

    I get the distinct impression that several posters on here either think their ideological view trumps hard evidence from the industry, or they don't care if we starve or not.
    No. We cannot end free movement in the single market and nor does ending free movement mean no immigration, it would simply be replaced by work permits.

    Though of course if Blair had introduced transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 free movement would not now still be such an issue and we would probably have narrowly voted Remain.
    Possibly time I reminded people that we had an agricultural workers scheme (SAWS) from 1945-2013. The composition of those workers varied over time; in the last year of operation, it was dominated by Bulgarian and Romanian workers. No one really wants to pick fruit for a living.
    According to William Keegan in Observer this weekend, Blair did this because of advice from Mervyn King that it would keep inflation down.
    I think my point was more that we've been importing seasonal workers for a long time. SAWS formalised a system that had been around since at least the 19th century. That's somewhat tangential to the lack of transitional controls post A8 accession.
  • For the first time since June 2016 I’m starting to believe that there will be no Brexit or at least an incredibly soft one. The whole thing is a mess and I doubt the government can square the circle of the Irish border with the DUP and Dublin both wanting polar opposites.

    Like I said earlier, after today's fiasco is there a form of words that both Belfast and Dublin can accept that will do the job it needs to do?
    No, in a word.

    What I suspect might happen now is some kind of fudge on ‘no regulatory divergence for the UK during a transition period’, i.e keeping the whole of the UK in the customs union and the single market for now, with some kind of mealy-mouthed option to explore alternative arrangements during the transition but subject always to a veto from Dublin.

    I.e, kick the can down the road and effectively have the softest of Brexits for the foreseeable future. The possibility would always be open to circumstances changing, but not to the extent that it would be likely to happen anytime soon.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,028

    For the first time since June 2016 I’m starting to believe that there will be no Brexit or at least an incredibly soft one. The whole thing is a mess and I doubt the government can square the circle of the Irish border with the DUP and Dublin both wanting polar opposites.

    Join the club! I have said from the day of the result that this wont happen.

    However, it needs a public 'think again' vote, rather than some fudgy mess imho.
    On what possible basis could you have that? Referendums should be avoided at all costs precisely because they simply have no possible reversal. Best of three? Best of seven?

    The worst thing a government can ever do is listen too closely to the electorate, apart from the other worst thing, which is to listen too little. (I think I just made that up but sounds very Kennedy)
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,729
    Funny how things move on - it's the EU Withdrawal Bill Committee Stage Day 4 (out of 8) today - remember how excited everyone was about that a couple of weeks ago - it now seems to be taking place almost unnoticed.

    Have there been any votes so far today?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Excitable (and in many cases somewhat undemocratic) Remainers are forgetting the golden rule of Brexit:

    Anything that cheers Remainers ends up harming their cause.

  • Omnium said:

    For the first time since June 2016 I’m starting to believe that there will be no Brexit or at least an incredibly soft one. The whole thing is a mess and I doubt the government can square the circle of the Irish border with the DUP and Dublin both wanting polar opposites.

    Join the club! I have said from the day of the result that this wont happen.

    However, it needs a public 'think again' vote, rather than some fudgy mess imho.
    On what possible basis could you have that? Referendums should be avoided at all costs precisely because they simply have no possible reversal. Best of three? Best of seven?

    The worst thing a government can ever do is listen too closely to the electorate, apart from the other worst thing, which is to listen too little. (I think I just made that up but sounds very Kennedy)
    It sounds very Churchillian.
  • Not really, when you consider that Gladstone had been dead for almost 23 years when Ireland was partitioned.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MikeL said:

    Funny how things move on - it's the EU Withdrawal Bill Committee Stage Day 4 (out of 8) today - remember how excited everyone was about that a couple of weeks ago - it now seems to be taking place almost unnoticed.

    Have there been any votes so far today?

    Tezza had to fly back from Brussels to take part
  • Good point:

    "In history, some British Prime Ministers have had their premierships wrecked by the “Irish Question”. Others, in more recent times, have been destroyed by Europe. Theresa May is unique in managing to combine both famously intractable and insoluble issues into one lethal cocktail."

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-northern-ireland-border-theresa-may-juncker-dup-deal-government-end-jeremy-corbyn-a8091286.html
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,820
    Mortimer said:

    Excitable (and in many cases somewhat undemocratic) Remainers are forgetting the golden rule of Brexit:

    Anything that cheers Remainers ends up harming their cause.

    Do you really think the cause of Remain has been set back since June 24th? That the objective chance of there being no Brexit is now slimmer than it was in the aftermath of the vote?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Scott_P said:
    Or, yet again, perhaps the EU/ROI were game playing...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,720

    rkrkrk said:

    For the first time since June 2016 I’m starting to believe that there will be no Brexit or at least an incredibly soft one. The whole thing is a mess and I doubt the government can square the circle of the Irish border with the DUP and Dublin both wanting polar opposites.

    Like I said earlier, after today's fiasco is there a form of words that both Belfast and Dublin can accept that will do the job it needs to do?
    Probably there is a form of words.
    But if there isn’t - I don’t see that hard Brexit is ruled out..

    We could just leave, go for a hard Border in Northern Ireland and abandon trade talks until the Irish forgive us. Bad for the economy - yes. But the Brexiteers would love it - and if it saved £30bn it might not even be unpopular until the economic damage came....
    er, Good Friday Agreement?
    The alternatives, that NI remains in the Customs Union if rUK leaves it, or that Ireland has a veto on the UK leaving the Customs Union, are inconsistent with the GFA.
This discussion has been closed.