97% Pension age (must be because I'm so close!), Life expectancy 85, 25% chance of 93, 10% chance of 97, 4.8% chance of 100
Better get out enjoying myself!
It does rather depend on certain lifestyle and other issues, the ONS is rather broadbrush.
It does also highlight the greying population. Under current ONS projections (inc current rates of immigration) the working age population is stable to 2030. The population growth is in the over 65's.
Bring back Dave and the Tories will win a majority once again.
When will he get the chance to return to the Commons? It woukd no doubt be after we'd left.
But he doesn't seem keen.
I've been urging him to come back.
Alas his view is that once you've been rejected by the electorate then it's over and you shouldn't come back.
I’m sure Dave would be welcomed back by the party if he wished to return. He’s still got 20 years of career time left in him and could make a huge further contribution to government and political life.
TCO, on the other hand, not so much.
Dave will tell you all his successes were down to George being his right hand man.
Mr. Palmer, what does it matter if it's 'extreme'?
Surely legal and illegal are the only terms that matter?
"Extreme" is illegal in the UK.
This government is anti-freedom. They censor, introduce "hate speech" laws which impinge on free expression, lock up people for posting stuff on Twitter or Facebook.
The British voters hate freedom so this is only to be expected.
What's a little bit astonishing is how naive politicians seem to be about setting up systems that will put themselves at risk of blackmail in future. (Or maybe the blackmail is already happening, and that's why they keep doing it.)
Bring back Dave and the Tories will win a majority once again.
When will he get the chance to return to the Commons? It woukd no doubt be after we'd left.
But he doesn't seem keen.
I've been urging him to come back.
Alas his view is that once you've been rejected by the electorate then it's over and you shouldn't come back.
I’m sure Dave would be welcomed back by the party if he wished to return. He’s still got 20 years of career time left in him and could make a huge further contribution to government and political life.
TCO, on the other hand, not so much.
The acronym TCO is very handy. It's an infallible self-identifier of the Conservative party's nutjobs.
Osborne has behaved with neither dignity nor discretion since 2016. Indeed, in some of his actions he has displayed more venom than Gavin Williamson's tarantula.
The joke is, of course, that if he had stuck it out and kept his head down post referendum, he could well have in a good position to succeed TMay, particularly if Brexit goes badly.
Instead, he's reduced to sniping from the Evening Standard in Partridge-esque "needless to say, I had the last laugh" style. Sad.
Bring back Dave and the Tories will win a majority once again.
When will he get the chance to return to the Commons? It woukd no doubt be after we'd left.
But he doesn't seem keen.
I've been urging him to come back.
Alas his view is that once you've been rejected by the electorate then it's over and you shouldn't come back.
I’m sure Dave would be welcomed back by the party if he wished to return. He’s still got 20 years of career time left in him and could make a huge further contribution to government and political life.
TCO, on the other hand, not so much.
Dave will tell you all his successes were down to George being his right hand man.
Then he could be a type-setter at the Standard.....
Bring back Dave and the Tories will win a majority once again.
When will he get the chance to return to the Commons? It woukd no doubt be after we'd left.
But he doesn't seem keen.
I've been urging him to come back.
Alas his view is that once you've been rejected by the electorate then it's over and you shouldn't come back.
I’m sure Dave would be welcomed back by the party if he wished to return. He’s still got 20 years of career time left in him and could make a huge further contribution to government and political life.
TCO, on the other hand, not so much.
Dave will tell you all his successes were down to George being his right hand man.
I’m sure even you might acknowledge that he’s burned his bridges somewhat with large amounts of the party membership and supporters, both by his actions during the referendum campaign and his subsequent role as a free sheet editor?
Bring back Dave and the Tories will win a majority once again.
When will he get the chance to return to the Commons? It woukd no doubt be after we'd left.
But he doesn't seem keen.
I've been urging him to come back.
Alas his view is that once you've been rejected by the electorate then it's over and you shouldn't come back.
I’m sure Dave would be welcomed back by the party if he wished to return. He’s still got 20 years of career time left in him and could make a huge further contribution to government and political life.
TCO, on the other hand, not so much.
Dave will tell you all his successes were down to George being his right hand man.
Cameron was the best politician I've ever seen at performing in front of a camera. Even better than Blair. No matter where he was, whatever the situation and how left-field the question, he was flawless.
It's an extraordinarily underestimated skill to have a mind that can calculate that quickly on such a broad range of subjects.
I dread to think what I'd say if someone thrust a microphone in my face on live TV.
Even if what they say is bullsh*t it's still impressive how articulate the best politicians are. Cameron was the master.
North (Maidstone): LDEM: 51.4% (+20.0) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative Torrington (Torridge): LDEM: 60.2% (+60.2) Liberal Democrat GAIN from UKIP Bridgemary North (Gosport): LDEM: 57.9% (+57.9) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour. Westway (Tandridge): LDEM: 53.5% (+17.5) Liberal Democrat HOLD
It must be down to the public all reading the pb.com threads about "Why aren't the LibDems doing better....?"
Bring back Dave and the Tories will win a majority once again.
When will he get the chance to return to the Commons? It woukd no doubt be after we'd left.
But he doesn't seem keen.
I've been urging him to come back.
Alas his view is that once you've been rejected by the electorate then it's over and you shouldn't come back.
I’m sure Dave would be welcomed back by the party if he wished to return. He’s still got 20 years of career time left in him and could make a huge further contribution to government and political life.
TCO, on the other hand, not so much.
Dave will tell you all his successes were down to George being his right hand man.
Then he could be a type-setter at the Standard.....
Bring back Dave and the Tories will win a majority once again.
When will he get the chance to return to the Commons? It woukd no doubt be after we'd left.
But he doesn't seem keen.
I've been urging him to come back.
Alas his view is that once you've been rejected by the electorate then it's over and you shouldn't come back.
I’m sure Dave would be welcomed back by the party if he wished to return. He’s still got 20 years of career time left in him and could make a huge further contribution to government and political life.
TCO, on the other hand, not so much.
The acronym TCO is very handy. It's an infallible self-identifier of the Conservative party's nutjobs.
Osborne has behaved with neither dignity nor discretion since 2016. Indeed, in some of his actions he has displayed more venom than Gavin Williamson's tarantula.
The joke is, of course, that if he had stuck it out and kept his head down post referendum, he could well have in a good position to succeed TMay, particularly if Brexit goes badly.
Instead, he's reduced to sniping from the Evening Standard in Partridge-esque "needless to say, I had the last laugh" style. Sad.
The joke is that there is a cohort of crazed headbangers who have done far more to damage the nation (and - though I don't care at all about this - the Conservative party) than George Osborne whose irrational hatred of him has led them to create an abusive three letter acronym for a politician of great intelligence and breadth of vision. Sure he has his flaws. Don't we all?
Bring back Dave and the Tories will win a majority once again.
When will he get the chance to return to the Commons? It woukd no doubt be after we'd left.
But he doesn't seem keen.
I've been urging him to come back.
Alas his view is that once you've been rejected by the electorate then it's over and you shouldn't come back.
I’m sure Dave would be welcomed back by the party if he wished to return. He’s still got 20 years of career time left in him and could make a huge further contribution to government and political life.
TCO, on the other hand, not so much.
Dave will tell you all his successes were down to George being his right hand man.
I’m sure even you might acknowledge that he’s burned his bridges somewhat with large amounts of the party membership and supporters, both by his actions during the referendum campaign and his subsequent role as a free sheet editor?
He’s burned few bridges with the Tory party than WSC did before he became PM and party leader.
97% Pension age (must be because I'm so close!), Life expectancy 85, 25% chance of 93, 10% chance of 97, 4.8% chance of 100
Better get out enjoying myself!
It does rather depend on certain lifestyle and other issues, the ONS is rather broadbrush.
It does also highlight the greying population. Under current ONS projections (inc current rates of immigration) the working age population is stable to 2030. The population growth is in the over 65's.
I think the assumptions behind this model are a bit questionable - I put in age 59 and got a 5.4% chance of making 100 but I then put in 65 and it gave only a 4.6% chance - this seems counterintuitive. Must have very strong assumptions about continued increases in life expectancy.
On Brexit, the Irish border issue, along with a lot of other issues, would be substantially addressed by remaining in the Single Market and the EU Customs Union. Thing is, that's damage limitation and we are not in the mindset for that. Many Remainers don't accept that Brexit will happen and almost all Leavers reject the reality that Brexit means damage and cost to end up with less, while having less influence over your affairs.
The inflexible Brexit timetable works against us. We should be kicking the ball around, not into the long grass, but until we know what we want that is achievable,
Bring back Dave and the Tories will win a majority once again.
When will he get the chance to return to the Commons? It woukd no doubt be after we'd left.
But he doesn't seem keen.
I've been urging him to come back.
Alas his view is that once you've been rejected by the electorate then it's over and you shouldn't come back.
I’m sure Dave would be welcomed back by the party if he wished to return. He’s still got 20 years of career time left in him and could make a huge further contribution to government and political life.
TCO, on the other hand, not so much.
Dave will tell you all his successes were down to George being his right hand man.
A great pity he did not take George's advice about the biggest decision of all.
North (Maidstone): LDEM: 51.4% (+20.0) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative Torrington (Torridge): LDEM: 60.2% (+60.2) Liberal Democrat GAIN from UKIP Bridgemary North (Gosport): LDEM: 57.9% (+57.9) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour. Westway (Tandridge): LDEM: 53.5% (+17.5) Liberal Democrat HOLD
Very good results to be fair and not all that surprising in the context of politics at present
On topic, the DUP have the huge advantage of being very clear what their aims are. By the time the government has worked out what its aims are, it will have been painted into a corner.
Having clear aims also makes it easier to see when you have failed. I wonder if the DUP will still like the taste of a full English Brexit this time next week.
The DUP will not be too troubled by the risk of economic crisis in the mainland UK.
They'll be troubled by the inevitable concessions to the EU to protect the Good Friday Agreement. Calling a bluff is an easier call with a larger union standing behind you.
The DUP has a different definition of inevitable from you.
I was told last week that the Good Friday Agreement prohibits any law being passed in NI which conflicts with EU law. I don't know if this is correct but if it is it does present something of an obstacle to any regulatory divergence between the EU and NI.
It also gives a great insight into the mindset of those determined by all means to tie the UK - and its constituent parts - into ever closer European Union....
North (Maidstone): LDEM: 51.4% (+20.0) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative Torrington (Torridge): LDEM: 60.2% (+60.2) Liberal Democrat GAIN from UKIP Bridgemary North (Gosport): LDEM: 57.9% (+57.9) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour. Westway (Tandridge): LDEM: 53.5% (+17.5) Liberal Democrat HOLD
It must be down to the public all reading the pb.com threads about "Why aren't the LibDems doing better....?"
You have to admit that's some Lib Dem surge. From nowhere. Weird.
North (Maidstone): LDEM: 51.4% (+20.0) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative Torrington (Torridge): LDEM: 60.2% (+60.2) Liberal Democrat GAIN from UKIP Bridgemary North (Gosport): LDEM: 57.9% (+57.9) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour. Westway (Tandridge): LDEM: 53.5% (+17.5) Liberal Democrat HOLD
Very good results to be fair and not all that surprising in the context of politics at present
Maidstone keeps being touted as one of those Tory seats that will fall at Westminster. Maybe next time?
Uncomfortable as it is for Damian Green, the police authorities and possibly the CPS need to throw the book at Neil Lewis to make it clear that breaching confidentiality in pursuit of an agenda against an individual is not tolerated.
CONFIDENTIALITY I will treat information with respect, and access or disclose it only in the proper course of my duties.
According to this standard you must: • be familiar with and abide by the data protection principles described in the Data Protection Act 1998 • access police-held information for a legitimate or authorised policing purpose only • not disclose information, on or off duty, to unauthorised recipients • understand that by accessing personal data without authorisation you could be committing a criminal offence, regardless of whether you then disclose that personal data
It also goes against Robert Peel's Nine Principles of Policing when the London force was set up. The point is,this is core policing principles and Neil Lewis is sticking two fingers at them.
Unfortunately for the authorities, and maybe the retired Mr Lewis has decided, fortunate for himself, their main sanction is to dismiss anyone found to have been found to have breached this code of ethics.
There are criminal sanctions for unauthorised and illegitimate release of confidential information. In particular the Police Act 1996. Sanctions are fines rather than prison sentences.
The ex police behaviour in this case raises profound questions and a complaint should be lodged with the appropriate authority. They even admit it was legal - how perverse can you get
North (Maidstone): LDEM: 51.4% (+20.0) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative Torrington (Torridge): LDEM: 60.2% (+60.2) Liberal Democrat GAIN from UKIP Bridgemary North (Gosport): LDEM: 57.9% (+57.9) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour. Westway (Tandridge): LDEM: 53.5% (+17.5) Liberal Democrat HOLD
It must be down to the public all reading the pb.com threads about "Why aren't the LibDems doing better....?"
I think the assumptions behind this model are a bit questionable - I put in age 59 and got a 5.4% chance of making 100 but I then put in 65 and it gave only a 4.6% chance - this seems counterintuitive. Must have very strong assumptions about continued increases in life expectancy.
I rather like the way that the age widget thingy lets you enter a negative age.
97% Pension age (must be because I'm so close!), Life expectancy 85, 25% chance of 93, 10% chance of 97, 4.8% chance of 100
Better get out enjoying myself!
It does rather depend on certain lifestyle and other issues, the ONS is rather broadbrush.
It does also highlight the greying population. Under current ONS projections (inc current rates of immigration) the working age population is stable to 2030. The population growth is in the over 65's.
I think the assumptions behind this model are a bit questionable - I put in age 59 and got a 5.4% chance of making 100 but I then put in 65 and it gave only a 4.6% chance - this seems counterintuitive. Must have very strong assumptions about continued increases in life expectancy.
That doesn't surprise me, as life expectancy is plateauing, and even declining in some populations (white male Americans for example).
Lifespan is not infinitely expansile due to biological senescence. Indeed, as an observer of these things, life after about 92 is not a lot of fun.
Nope, because we will be bogged down in feuds over transition, immigration and trade.
Brexit is not going to resolve the cultural divide over nationalism vs internationalism either within the country or within the Conservative Party. It is at the core of how we reform as a country.
Once we're out of the EU all of those other arguments are going to seem very small indeed. Right now we have multiple factions within the party, one which wants to subvert the vote and remain in the EU without having a second vote, one which wants a second vote to reverse the first one, one which wants to stay in the single market, one which wants to be detached but still friendly and one which wants completely out. All of them are opposed to the others. After Brexit only the two extreme views will still cause issues, and the completely out group will just get on with life, only the remain faction will continue their campaign and turn it into a rejoin one.
After Brexit the party will look a lot more united. On the core issue of globalist vs nationalist, you are correct, but that's an issue the public is split on, as we saw during the vote.
I think it's the opposite. Brexit will not solve this post globalism identity crisis, it is a symptom of it. Recent polling again shows disparity on Leavers and Remainers on "British Values" questions: there is only a slight difference (except with same-sex royal couplings), but there is clearly a values divide that has nothing to do with the EU. I remember right after the referendum a poll coming out about positive / negative views of things like feminism and such, and the divide between Remainers and Leavers. We talk about them as those two camps, but half the leave crowd are better of being described as social / values conservatives, with the other half maybe more libertarian business leaning, with remainers split between cosmopolitan lefties and status quo business people.
97% Pension age (must be because I'm so close!), Life expectancy 85, 25% chance of 93, 10% chance of 97, 4.8% chance of 100
Better get out enjoying myself!
It does rather depend on certain lifestyle and other issues, the ONS is rather broadbrush.
It does also highlight the greying population. Under current ONS projections (inc current rates of immigration) the working age population is stable to 2030. The population growth is in the over 65's.
I think the assumptions behind this model are a bit questionable - I put in age 59 and got a 5.4% chance of making 100 but I then put in 65 and it gave only a 4.6% chance - this seems counterintuitive. Must have very strong assumptions about continued increases in life expectancy.
I’m nearly 80; gives me anothere 10 years, but only a 25% chance of getting to 93 and only a 10% of getting to 97. Of course it just refers to age, not quality of life.
North (Maidstone): LDEM: 51.4% (+20.0) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative Torrington (Torridge): LDEM: 60.2% (+60.2) Liberal Democrat GAIN from UKIP Bridgemary North (Gosport): LDEM: 57.9% (+57.9) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour. Westway (Tandridge): LDEM: 53.5% (+17.5) Liberal Democrat HOLD
It must be down to the public all reading the pb.com threads about "Why aren't the LibDems doing better....?"
You have to admit that's some Lib Dem surge. From nowhere. Weird.
Angry Remainers the only ones brave enough to head out to vote in the sleet and ice yesterday?
Heard of GOM, Gladstone's nickname. Liberals said it stood for Grand Old Man. Conservatives said it stood for God's Only Mistake.
Mike ‘FEC’ Atherton
Short, unforgettable and really quite nasty, the ‘FEC’ sobriquet was daubed on the young Michael’s locker by one of Lancashire’s furry beasts within weeks of the boy’s emergence – via Manchester Grammar and Cambridge – into Old Trafford’s macho, beery dressing room. “Anybody with a further education was sneered at,” Atherton later wrote of those early days in the Eighties, adding that while the initials were “assumed to stand for Future England Captain” in actual fact the middle word was ‘Educated’ and the others, well, you can work out for yourself. “It was clear I was going to have to work hard to earn my stripes at Old Trafford,” he added, “so I played down my Cambridge education as much as I could.”
Since the DUP is the only significant group that is against the UK/EU preferred solution to the Irish border problem, we have reached the moment of truth. Either the DUP backs down, or the Tories will lose a vote of no confidence within the next couple of months.
I will boringly remind everyone that my main reason for voting Remain was that Brexit would be virtually impossible to put into effect and it would shittify UK politics (and everything connected with it) for at least a decade.
Short, unforgettable and really quite nasty, the ‘FEC’ sobriquet was daubed on the young Michael’s locker by one of Lancashire’s furry beasts within weeks of the boy’s emergence – via Manchester Grammar and Cambridge – into Old Trafford’s macho, beery dressing room. “Anybody with a further education was sneered at,” Atherton later wrote of those early days in the Eighties, adding that while the initials were “assumed to stand for Future England Captain” in actual fact the middle word was ‘Educated’ and the others, well, you can work out for yourself. “It was clear I was going to have to work hard to earn my stripes at Old Trafford,” he added, “so I played down my Cambridge education as much as I could.”
Bring back Dave and the Tories will win a majority once again.
When will he get the chance to return to the Commons? It woukd no doubt be after we'd left.
But he doesn't seem keen.
I've been urging him to come back.
Alas his view is that once you've been rejected by the electorate then it's over and you shouldn't come back.
I’m sure Dave would be welcomed back by the party if he wished to return. He’s still got 20 years of career time left in him and could make a huge further contribution to government and political life.
TCO, on the other hand, not so much.
Dave will tell you all his successes were down to George being his right hand man.
I’m sure even you might acknowledge that he’s burned his bridges somewhat with large amounts of the party membership and supporters, both by his actions during the referendum campaign and his subsequent role as a free sheet editor?
He’s burned few bridges with the Tory party than WSC did before he became PM and party leader.
Churchill was lucky. His non-wartime political judgement was indifferent to catastrophically poor. I take the view that he was, on an objective basis, not a very good politician.
Short, unforgettable and really quite nasty, the ‘FEC’ sobriquet was daubed on the young Michael’s locker by one of Lancashire’s furry beasts within weeks of the boy’s emergence – via Manchester Grammar and Cambridge – into Old Trafford’s macho, beery dressing room. “Anybody with a further education was sneered at,” Atherton later wrote of those early days in the Eighties, adding that while the initials were “assumed to stand for Future England Captain” in actual fact the middle word was ‘Educated’ and the others, well, you can work out for yourself. “It was clear I was going to have to work hard to earn my stripes at Old Trafford,” he added, “so I played down my Cambridge education as much as I could.”
97% Pension age (must be because I'm so close!), Life expectancy 85, 25% chance of 93, 10% chance of 97, 4.8% chance of 100
Better get out enjoying myself!
It does rather depend on certain lifestyle and other issues, the ONS is rather broadbrush.
It does also highlight the greying population. Under current ONS projections (inc current rates of immigration) the working age population is stable to 2030. The population growth is in the over 65's.
I think the assumptions behind this model are a bit questionable - I put in age 59 and got a 5.4% chance of making 100 but I then put in 65 and it gave only a 4.6% chance - this seems counterintuitive. Must have very strong assumptions about continued increases in life expectancy.
That doesn't surprise me, as life expectancy is plateauing, and even declining in some populations (white male Americans for example).
Lifespan is not infinitely expansile due to biological senescence. Indeed, as an observer of these things, life after about 92 is not a lot of fun.
Dr F is of course quite right; there’s a biological cut-off point, probably around 110. In other words given a good diet, reasonable life style and good medical care humans can almost certainly reach that point. However, it’s highly unlikely that more than the odd one or two weill get much further. Whci, of course has depressing connotations for Prince Charles
Nope, because we will be bogged down in feuds over transition, immigration and trade.
Brexit is not going to resolve the cultural divide over nationalism vs internationalism either within the country or within the Conservative Party. It is at the core of how we reform as a country.
Once we're out of the EU all of those other arguments are going to seem very small indeed. Right now we have multiple factions within the party, one which wants to subvert the vote and remain in the EU without having a second vote, one which wants a second vote to reverse the first one, one which wants to stay in the single market, one which wants to be detached but still friendly and one which wants completely out. All of them are opposed to the others. After Brexit only the two extreme views will still cause issues, and the completely out group will just get on with life, only the remain faction will continue their campaign and turn it into a rejoin one.
After Brexit the party will look a lot more united. On the core issue of globalist vs nationalist, you are correct, but that's an issue the public is split on, as we saw during the vote.
I think it's the opposite. Brexit will not solve this post globalism identity crisis, it is a symptom of it. Recent polling again shows disparity on Leavers and Remainers on "British Values" questions: there is only a slight difference (except with same-sex royal couplings), but there is clearly a values divide that has nothing to do with the EU. I remember right after the referendum a poll coming out about positive / negative views of things like feminism and such, and the divide between Remainers and Leavers. We talk about them as those two camps, but half the leave crowd are better of being described as social / values conservatives, with the other half maybe more libertarian business leaning, with remainers split between cosmopolitan lefties and status quo business people.
I believe so too. Brexit is predicated on several false assumptions. The biggest of these false assumptions is that it will resolve anything. Dealing with globalisation requires engagement and we have decided to cut ourselves off from the most important group of liberal democracies that speak for the continent we are a part of. It massively reduces our influence abroad, and, while actually have to deal with the EU and its members, gives us less say over what happens to us.
Bring back Dave and the Tories will win a majority once again.
When will he get the chance to return to the Commons? It woukd no doubt be after we'd left.
But he doesn't seem keen.
I've been urging him to come back.
Alas his view is that once you've been rejected by the electorate then it's over and you shouldn't come back.
I’m sure Dave would be welcomed back by the party if he wished to return. He’s still got 20 years of career time left in him and could make a huge further contribution to government and political life.
TCO, on the other hand, not so much.
Dave will tell you all his successes were down to George being his right hand man.
I’m sure even you might acknowledge that he’s burned his bridges somewhat with large amounts of the party membership and supporters, both by his actions during the referendum campaign and his subsequent role as a free sheet editor?
He’s burned few bridges with the Tory party than WSC did before he became PM and party leader.
Churchill was lucky. His non-wartime political judgement was indifferent to catastrophically poor. I take the view that he was, on an objective basis, not a very good politician.
North (Maidstone): LDEM: 51.4% (+20.0) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative Torrington (Torridge): LDEM: 60.2% (+60.2) Liberal Democrat GAIN from UKIP Bridgemary North (Gosport): LDEM: 57.9% (+57.9) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour. Westway (Tandridge): LDEM: 53.5% (+17.5) Liberal Democrat HOLD
It must be down to the public all reading the pb.com threads about "Why aren't the LibDems doing better....?"
You have to admit that's some Lib Dem surge. From nowhere. Weird.
The same thing, approximately, happens each year as the nights are dark. LDs are tremendously good at getting voters out in small, concentrated locations, and win when their oppositions are less engaged/motivated. As soon as spring/summer/large scale elections come along, they revert to form.
Mr. NorthWales, one of the best Coalition events was before it was formalised. During negotiations, nobody leaked, and the press had no idea what to say because they had to think for themselves rather than being fed lines.
Nope, because we will be bogged down in feuds over transition, immigration and trade.
Brexit is not going to resolve the cultural divide over nationalism vs internationalism either within the country or within the Conservative Party. It is at the core of how we reform as a country.
Once we're out of the EU all of those other arguments are going to seem very small indeed. Right now we have multiple factions within the party, one which wants to subvert the vote and remain in the EU without having a second vote, one which wants a second vote to reverse the first one, one which wants to stay in the single market, one which wants to be detached but still friendly and one which wants completely out. All of them are opposed to the others. After Brexit only the two extreme views will still cause issues, and the completely out group will just get on with life, only the remain faction will continue their campaign and turn it into a rejoin one.
After Brexit the party will look a lot more united. On the core issue of globalist vs nationalist, you are correct, but that's an issue the public is split on, as we saw during the vote.
I think it's the opposite. Brexit will not solve this post globalism identity crisis, it is a symptom of it. Recent polling again shows disparity on Leavers and Remainers on "British Values" questions: there is only a slight difference (except with same-sex royal couplings), but there is clearly a values divide that has nothing to do with the EU. I remember right after the referendum a poll coming out about positive / negative views of things like feminism and such, and the divide between Remainers and Leavers. We talk about them as those two camps, but half the leave crowd are better of being described as social / values conservatives, with the other half maybe more libertarian business leaning, with remainers split between cosmopolitan lefties and status quo business people.
I didn't say Brexit would solve the problem, just that it would make the party look more united.
David Davis made clear he was ready to quit the Cabinet if Damian Green was unfairly fired over allegations of porn and inappropriate behaviour, it was revealed today.
Sources said the Brexit Secretary had “put his cloak around” the embattled Mr Green in an effort to toughen Theresa May’s resolve to defend her deputy.
The disclosure came as a retired Scotland Yard detective alleged that “thousands” of pornographic images were found on Mr Green’s computer in 2008.
North (Maidstone): LDEM: 51.4% (+20.0) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative Torrington (Torridge): LDEM: 60.2% (+60.2) Liberal Democrat GAIN from UKIP Bridgemary North (Gosport): LDEM: 57.9% (+57.9) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour. Westway (Tandridge): LDEM: 53.5% (+17.5) Liberal Democrat HOLD
It must be down to the public all reading the pb.com threads about "Why aren't the LibDems doing better....?"
You have to admit that's some Lib Dem surge. From nowhere. Weird.
The same thing, approximately, happens each year as the nights are dark. LDs are tremendously good at getting voters out in small, concentrated locations, and win when their oppositions are less engaged/motivated. As soon as spring/summer/large scale elections come along, they revert to form.
Theresa May has plunged to her lowest leadership ratings yet, with just a third of the public satisfied with her, an exclusive poll reveals today.
At the same time, the Conservatives are scoring worse than when David Cameron was in government for being “divided”, “fit to govern” or offering a “good team of leaders”.
The findings by pollsters Ipsos MORI come after a disastrous party conference speech, two Cabinet resignations, sex scandals and Tory warfare over Brexit.
Labour’s image has improved over the past year, found the researchers, but Jeremy Corbyn’s team has similar ratings to Ed Miliband’s and are behind the Conservatives on the fit-to-govern question.
Key findings reveal:
Optimism about the economy has plunged to the lowest since 2011. A clear majority, 58 per cent, think things will get worse in the year ahead.
The Prime Minister’s ratings have hit rock bottom, with 32 per cent satisfied with her performance (down five) and 59 per cent dissatisfied (up 6), a net rating of minus-27.
Jeremy Corbyn’s ratings have declined, with 42 per cent satisfied (unchanged) and 49 per cent dissatisfied (+4), or -7 overall.
Three quarters of the public see the Tories as divided. The worst score when Mr Cameron was PM was 68 per cent in 2013.
Only 27 per cent think the Conservatives offer a good team of leaders, compared with the Cameron era’s lowest score of 36 per cent in 2012.
Fewer than half (43 per cent) say the Conservatives are fit to govern. Cameron’s worst score as PM was 46 per cent in 2012.
Only 38 per cent think Labour are fit to govern, while just 31 per cent think they offer a good team of leaders. The party is seen as divided by 62 per cent.
Labour has a slim two-point lead, unchanged since last month, which suggests the next general election is wide open. The parties stand at: Conservatives, 37 per cent (-1); Labour, 39 (-1); Lib Dems nine (NC); Green four (+1) and UKIP on four (NC).
Those Mori voting intention figures would see Labour on 290 seats and the Tories 287 seats and the LDs on 15 seats so still almost neck and neck between the Tories and Labour.
Presumably if Green is sacked it won't be because of his browsing habits, it will be because he has been found to have said something that wasn't true. (I'm not saying that he did say something untrue, merely that this would be grounds for a sacking.)
Off topic: Sky Bet go 2-1 Thistlecrack in a boost. I'm limited to £1 and have left my card at home so am not bothering. But that's a good price, he has almost half a stone advantage over the main threat.
North (Maidstone): LDEM: 51.4% (+20.0) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative Torrington (Torridge): LDEM: 60.2% (+60.2) Liberal Democrat GAIN from UKIP Bridgemary North (Gosport): LDEM: 57.9% (+57.9) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour. Westway (Tandridge): LDEM: 53.5% (+17.5) Liberal Democrat HOLD
It must be down to the public all reading the pb.com threads about "Why aren't the LibDems doing better....?"
You have to admit that's some Lib Dem surge. From nowhere. Weird.
The same thing, approximately, happens each year as the nights are dark. LDs are tremendously good at getting voters out in small, concentrated locations, and win when their oppositions are less engaged/motivated. As soon as spring/summer/large scale elections come along, they revert to form.
So you're betting that come Spring, say May when there are more widespread election, the LibDems will lose out?
Theresa May has plunged to her lowest leadership ratings yet, with just a third of the public satisfied with her, an exclusive poll reveals today.
At the same time, the Conservatives are scoring worse than when David Cameron was in government for being “divided”, “fit to govern” or offering a “good team of leaders”.
The findings by pollsters Ipsos MORI come after a disastrous party conference speech, two Cabinet resignations, sex scandals and Tory warfare over Brexit.
Labour’s image has improved over the past year, found the researchers, but Jeremy Corbyn’s team has similar ratings to Ed Miliband’s and are behind the Conservatives on the fit-to-govern question.
Key findings reveal:
Optimism about the economy has plunged to the lowest since 2011. A clear majority, 58 per cent, think things will get worse in the year ahead.
The Prime Minister’s ratings have hit rock bottom, with 32 per cent satisfied with her performance (down five) and 59 per cent dissatisfied (up 6), a net rating of minus-27.
Jeremy Corbyn’s ratings have declined, with 42 per cent satisfied (unchanged) and 49 per cent dissatisfied (+4), or -7 overall.
Three quarters of the public see the Tories as divided. The worst score when Mr Cameron was PM was 68 per cent in 2013.
Only 27 per cent think the Conservatives offer a good team of leaders, compared with the Cameron era’s lowest score of 36 per cent in 2012.
Fewer than half (43 per cent) say the Conservatives are fit to govern. Cameron’s worst score as PM was 46 per cent in 2012.
Only 38 per cent think Labour are fit to govern, while just 31 per cent think they offer a good team of leaders. The party is seen as divided by 62 per cent.
Labour has a slim two-point lead, unchanged since last month, which suggests the next general election is wide open. The parties stand at: Conservatives, 37 per cent (-1); Labour, 39 (-1); Lib Dems nine (NC); Green four (+1) and UKIP on four (NC).
Those Mori voting intention figures would see Labour on 290 seats and the Tories 287 seats and the LDs on 15 seats so still almost neck and neck between the Tories and Labour.
Presumably if Green is sacked it won't be because of his browsing habits, it will be because he has been found to have said something that wasn't true. (I'm not saying that he did say something untrue, merely that this would be grounds for a sacking.)
Yes that certainly seems to be the strongest plank in the case against him. His initial blanket denial seems to have a rather distant relationship with the truth.
Bring back Dave and the Tories will win a majority once again.
When will he get the chance to return to the Commons? It woukd no doubt be after we'd left.
But he doesn't seem keen.
I've been urging him to come back.
Alas his view is that once you've been rejected by the electorate then it's over and you shouldn't come back.
I’m sure Dave would be welcomed back by the party if he wished to return. He’s still got 20 years of career time left in him and could make a huge further contribution to government and political life.
TCO, on the other hand, not so much.
Dave will tell you all his successes were down to George being his right hand man.
I’m sure even you might acknowledge that he’s burned his bridges somewhat with large amounts of the party membership and supporters, both by his actions during the referendum campaign and his subsequent role as a free sheet editor?
He’s burned few bridges with the Tory party than WSC did before he became PM and party leader.
Churchill was lucky. His non-wartime political judgement was indifferent to catastrophically poor. I take the view that he was, on an objective basis, not a very good politician.
Good wartime leader, awful peacetime leader.
The return to the Gold Standard had some prretty dreadful results!
97% Pension age (must be because I'm so close!), Life expectancy 85, 25% chance of 93, 10% chance of 97, 4.8% chance of 100
Better get out enjoying myself!
It does rather depend on certain lifestyle and other issues, the ONS is rather broadbrush.
It does also highlight the greying population. Under current ONS projections (inc current rates of immigration) the working age population is stable to 2030. The population growth is in the over 65's.
I think the assumptions behind this model are a bit questionable - I put in age 59 and got a 5.4% chance of making 100 but I then put in 65 and it gave only a 4.6% chance - this seems counterintuitive. Must have very strong assumptions about continued increases in life expectancy.
I read somewhere that every 24 hours you live extends your expected life by 8 hours.
Theresa May has plunged to her lowest leadership ratings yet, with just a third of the public satisfied with her, an exclusive poll reveals today.
At the same time, the Conservatives are scoring worse than when David Cameron was in government for being “divided”, “fit to govern” or offering a “good team of leaders”.
The findings by pollsters Ipsos MORI come after a disastrous party conference speech, two Cabinet resignations, sex scandals and Tory warfare over Brexit.
Labour’s image has improved over the past year, found the researchers, but Jeremy Corbyn’s team has similar ratings to Ed Miliband’s and are behind the Conservatives on the fit-to-govern question.
Key findings reveal:
Optimism about the economy has plunged to the lowest since 2011. A clear majority, 58 per cent, think things will get worse in the year ahead.
The Prime Minister’s ratings have hit rock bottom, with 32 per cent satisfied with her performance (down five) and 59 per cent dissatisfied (up 6), a net rating of minus-27.
Jeremy Corbyn’s ratings have declined, with 42 per cent satisfied (unchanged) and 49 per cent dissatisfied (+4), or -7 overall.
Three quarters of the public see the Tories as divided. The worst score when Mr Cameron was PM was 68 per cent in 2013.
Only 27 per cent think the Conservatives offer a good team of leaders, compared with the Cameron era’s lowest score of 36 per cent in 2012.
Fewer than half (43 per cent) say the Conservatives are fit to govern. Cameron’s worst score as PM was 46 per cent in 2012.
Only 38 per cent think Labour are fit to govern, while just 31 per cent think they offer a good team of leaders. The party is seen as divided by 62 per cent.
Labour has a slim two-point lead, unchanged since last month, which suggests the next general election is wide open. The parties stand at: Conservatives, 37 per cent (-1); Labour, 39 (-1); Lib Dems nine (NC); Green four (+1) and UKIP on four (NC).
Those Mori voting intention figures would see Labour on 290 seats and the Tories 287 seats and the LDs on 15 seats so still almost neck and neck between the Tories and Labour.
Sturgeon-Corbyn Gov't.
Still not enough, that only gets Labour to 224 seats. Would still need PC support too to get to the 226 needed for a majority and probably LD support for a working majority especially with Labour rebels like Field and Hoey taking a tough pro Leave line on Brexit talks even before you get to the Blairites.
Theresa May has plunged to her lowest leadership ratings yet, with just a third of the public satisfied with her, an exclusive poll reveals today.
At the same time, the Conservatives are scoring worse than when David Cameron was in government for being “divided”, “fit to govern” or offering a “good team of leaders”.
The findings by pollsters Ipsos MORI come after a disastrous party conference speech, two Cabinet resignations, sex scandals and Tory warfare over Brexit.
Labour’s image has improved over the past year, found the researchers, but Jeremy Corbyn’s team has similar ratings to Ed Miliband’s and are behind the Conservatives on the fit-to-govern question.
Key findings reveal:
Optimism about the economy has plunged to the lowest since 2011. A clear majority, 58 per cent, think things will get worse in the year ahead.
The Prime Minister’s ratings have hit rock bottom, with 32 per cent satisfied with her performance (down five) and 59 per cent dissatisfied (up 6), a net rating of minus-27.
Jeremy Corbyn’s ratings have declined, with 42 per cent satisfied (unchanged) and 49 per cent dissatisfied (+4), or -7 overall.
Three quarters of the public see the Tories as divided. The worst score when Mr Cameron was PM was 68 per cent in 2013.
Only 27 per cent think the Conservatives offer a good team of leaders, compared with the Cameron era’s lowest score of 36 per cent in 2012.
Fewer than half (43 per cent) say the Conservatives are fit to govern. Cameron’s worst score as PM was 46 per cent in 2012.
Only 38 per cent think Labour are fit to govern, while just 31 per cent think they offer a good team of leaders. The party is seen as divided by 62 per cent.
Labour has a slim two-point lead, unchanged since last month, which suggests the next general election is wide open. The parties stand at: Conservatives, 37 per cent (-1); Labour, 39 (-1); Lib Dems nine (NC); Green four (+1) and UKIP on four (NC).
Those Mori voting intention figures would see Labour on 290 seats and the Tories 287 seats and the LDs on 15 seats so still almost neck and neck between the Tories and Labour.
This is all academic. Mrs May will not be standing against Corbyn. David Davis is on manoeuvres, perhaps we need to be looking at Davis' lead over Corbyn which initially I suspect, will be sizeable.
Theresa May has plunged to her lowest leadership ratings yet, with just a third of the public satisfied with her, an exclusive poll reveals today.
At the same time, the Conservatives are scoring worse than when David Cameron was in government for being “divided”, “fit to govern” or offering a “good team of leaders”.
The findings by pollsters Ipsos MORI come after a disastrous party conference speech, two Cabinet resignations, sex scandals and Tory warfare over Brexit.
Labour’s image has improved over the past year, found the researchers, but Jeremy Corbyn’s team has similar ratings to Ed Miliband’s and are behind the Conservatives on the fit-to-govern question.
Key findings reveal:
Optimism about the economy has plunged to the lowest since 2011. A clear majority, 58 per cent, think things will get worse in the year ahead.
The Prime Minister’s ratings have hit rock bottom, with 32 per cent satisfied with her performance (down five) and 59 per cent dissatisfied (up 6), a net rating of minus-27.
Jeremy Corbyn’s ratings have declined, with 42 per cent satisfied (unchanged) and 49 per cent dissatisfied (+4), or -7 overall.
Three quarters of the public see the Tories as divided. The worst score when Mr Cameron was PM was 68 per cent in 2013.
Only 27 per cent think the Conservatives offer a good team of leaders, compared with the Cameron era’s lowest score of 36 per cent in 2012.
Fewer than half (43 per cent) say the Conservatives are fit to govern. Cameron’s worst score as PM was 46 per cent in 2012.
Only 38 per cent think Labour are fit to govern, while just 31 per cent think they offer a good team of leaders. The party is seen as divided by 62 per cent.
Labour has a slim two-point lead, unchanged since last month, which suggests the next general election is wide open. The parties stand at: Conservatives, 37 per cent (-1); Labour, 39 (-1); Lib Dems nine (NC); Green four (+1) and UKIP on four (NC).
Those Mori voting intention figures would see Labour on 290 seats and the Tories 287 seats and the LDs on 15 seats so still almost neck and neck between the Tories and Labour.
Theresa May has plunged to her lowest leadership ratings yet, with just a third of the public satisfied with her, an exclusive poll reveals today.
At the same time, the Conservatives are scoring worse than when David Cameron was in government for being “divided”, “fit to govern” or offering a “good team of leaders”.
The findings by pollsters Ipsos MORI come after a disastrous party conference speech, two Cabinet resignations, sex scandals and Tory warfare over Brexit.
Labour’s image has improved over the past year, found the researchers, but Jeremy Corbyn’s team has similar ratings to Ed Miliband’s and are behind the Conservatives on the fit-to-govern question.
Key findings reveal:
Optimism about the economy has plunged to the lowest since 2011. A clear majority, 58 per cent, think things will get worse in the year ahead.
The Prime Minister’s ratings have hit rock bottom, with 32 per cent satisfied with her performance (down five) and 59 per cent dissatisfied (up 6), a net rating of minus-27.
Jeremy Corbyn’s ratings have declined, with 42 per cent satisfied (unchanged) and 49 per cent dissatisfied (+4), or -7 overall.
Three quarters of the public see the Tories as divided. The worst score when Mr Cameron was PM was 68 per cent in 2013.
Only 27 per cent think the Conservatives offer a good team of leaders, compared with the Cameron era’s lowest score of 36 per cent in 2012.
Fewer than half (43 per cent) say the Conservatives are fit to govern. Cameron’s worst score as PM was 46 per cent in 2012.
Only 38 per cent think Labour are fit to govern, while just 31 per cent think they offer a good team of leaders. The party is seen as divided by 62 per cent.
Labour has a slim two-point lead, unchanged since last month, which suggests the next general election is wide open. The parties stand at: Conservatives, 37 per cent (-1); Labour, 39 (-1); Lib Dems nine (NC); Green four (+1) and UKIP on four (NC).
Those Mori voting intention figures would see Labour on 290 seats and the Tories 287 seats and the LDs on 15 seats so still almost neck and neck between the Tories and Labour.
Theresa May has plunged to her lowest leadership ratings yet, with just a third of the public satisfied with her, an exclusive poll reveals today.
At the same time, the Conservatives are scoring worse than when David Cameron was in government for being “divided”, “fit to govern” or offering a “good team of leaders”.
The findings by pollsters Ipsos MORI come after a disastrous party conference speech, two Cabinet resignations, sex scandals and Tory warfare over Brexit.
Labour’s image has improved over the past year, found the researchers, but Jeremy Corbyn’s team has similar ratings to Ed Miliband’s and are behind the Conservatives on the fit-to-govern question.
Key findings reveal:
Optimism about the economy has plunged to the lowest since 2011. A clear majority, 58 per cent, think things will get worse in the year ahead.
The Prime Minister’s ratings have hit rock bottom, with 32 per cent satisfied with her performance (down five) and 59 per cent dissatisfied (up 6), a net rating of minus-27.
Jeremy Corbyn’s ratings have declined, with 42 per cent satisfied (unchanged) and 49 per cent dissatisfied (+4), or -7 overall.
Three quarters of the public see the Tories as divided. The worst score when Mr Cameron was PM was 68 per cent in 2013.
Only 27 per cent think the Conservatives offer a good team of leaders, compared with the Cameron era’s lowest score of 36 per cent in 2012.
Fewer than half (43 per cent) say the Conservatives are fit to govern. Cameron’s worst score as PM was 46 per cent in 2012.
Only 38 per cent think Labour are fit to govern, while just 31 per cent think they offer a good team of leaders. The party is seen as divided by 62 per cent.
Labour has a slim two-point lead, unchanged since last month, which suggests the next general election is wide open. The parties stand at: Conservatives, 37 per cent (-1); Labour, 39 (-1); Lib Dems nine (NC); Green four (+1) and UKIP on four (NC).
Those Mori voting intention figures would see Labour on 290 seats and the Tories 287 seats and the LDs on 15 seats so still almost neck and neck between the Tories and Labour.
Sturgeon-Corbyn Gov't.
The best kind of Corbyn government. The moderates in the PLP and the SNP would hold the whip hand and make sure Corbyn didn't abolish private property, while allowing a sensible softer Brexit.
Theresa May has plunged to her lowest leadership ratings yet, with just a third of the public satisfied with her, an exclusive poll reveals today.
At the same time, the Conservatives are scoring worse than when David Cameron was in government for being “divided”, “fit to govern” or offering a “good team of leaders”.
The findings by pollsters Ipsos MORI come after a disastrous party conference speech, two Cabinet resignations, sex scandals and Tory warfare over Brexit.
Labour’s image has improved over the past year, found the researchers, but Jeremy Corbyn’s team has similar ratings to Ed Miliband’s and are behind the Conservatives on the fit-to-govern question.
Key findings reveal:
Optimism about the economy has plunged to the lowest since 2011. A clear majority, 58 per cent, think things will get worse in the year ahead.
The Prime Minister’s ratings have hit rock bottom, with 32 per cent satisfied with her performance (down five) and 59 per cent dissatisfied (up 6), a net rating of minus-27.
Jeremy Corbyn’s ratings have declined, with 42 per cent satisfied (unchanged) and 49 per cent dissatisfied (+4), or -7 overall.
Three quarters of the public see the Tories as divided. The worst score when Mr Cameron was PM was 68 per cent in 2013.
Only 27 per cent think the Conservatives offer a good team of leaders, compared with the Cameron era’s lowest score of 36 per cent in 2012.
Fewer than half (43 per cent) say the Conservatives are fit to govern. Cameron’s worst score as PM was 46 per cent in 2012.
Only 38 per cent think Labour are fit to govern, while just 31 per cent think they offer a good team of leaders. The party is seen as divided by 62 per cent.
Labour has a slim two-point lead, unchanged since last month, which suggests the next general election is wide open. The parties stand at: Conservatives, 37 per cent (-1); Labour, 39 (-1); Lib Dems nine (NC); Green four (+1) and UKIP on four (NC).
Those Mori voting intention figures would see Labour on 290 seats and the Tories 287 seats and the LDs on 15 seats so still almost neck and neck between the Tories and Labour.
This is all academic. Mrs May will not be standing against Corbyn. David Davis is on manoeuvres, perhaps we need to be looking at Davis' lead over Corbyn which initially I suspect, will be sizeable.
With UKIP on 4%, double their June total with Mori, if the Tories squeezed that back they could certainly be largest party still.
Still not enough, that only gets Labour to 324 seats. Would still need PC support too to get to the 326 needed for a majority and probably LD support too for a working majority especially with Labour rebels like Field and Hoey taking a tough pro Leave line on Brexit talks even before you get to the Blairites.
Lets work through this sentence by sentence:
Would still need PC support too to get to the 326 needed for a majority - Plaid would 100% support a Labour Gov't when push comes to shove. "with Labour rebels like Field and Hoey taking a tough pro Leave line" - Remainers Anna Soubry and Ken Clarke voted through the Tory/DUP QS, the idea Hoey and Field wouldn't do for JC is a nonsense. "even before you get to the Blairites" - They'll all vote through the Labour manifesto, Corbyn will have made ~ 50 gains.
David Davis made clear he was ready to quit the Cabinet if Damian Green was unfairly fired over allegations of porn and inappropriate behaviour, it was revealed today.
Sources said the Brexit Secretary had “put his cloak around” the embattled Mr Green in an effort to toughen Theresa May’s resolve to defend her deputy.
The disclosure came as a retired Scotland Yard detective alleged that “thousands” of pornographic images were found on Mr Green’s computer in 2008.
David Davis made clear he was ready to quit the Cabinet if Damian Green was unfairly fired over allegations of porn and inappropriate behaviour, it was revealed today.
Sources said the Brexit Secretary had “put his cloak around” the embattled Mr Green in an effort to toughen Theresa May’s resolve to defend her deputy.
The disclosure came as a retired Scotland Yard detective alleged that “thousands” of pornographic images were found on Mr Green’s computer in 2008.
Still not enough, that only gets Labour to 324 seats. Would still need PC support too to get to the 326 needed for a majority and probably LD support too for a working majority especially with Labour rebels like Field and Hoey taking a tough pro Leave line on Brexit talks even before you get to the Blairites.
Lets work through this sentence by sentence:
Would still need PC support too to get to the 326 needed for a majority - Plaid would 100% support a Labour Gov't when push comes to shove. "with Labour rebels like Field and Hoey taking a tough pro Leave line" - Remainers Anna Soubry and Ken Clarke voted through the Tory/DUP QS, the idea Hoey and Field wouldn't do for JC is a nonsense. "even before you get to the Blairites" - They'll all vote through the Labour manifesto, Corbyn will have made ~ 50 gains.
Corbyn is PM on these numbers.
I did not say he would not be, just clearly he would only be PM with support from not only 1 but at least 2 other parties and may even still come behind the Tories on seats.
Nope, because we will be bogged down in feuds over transition, immigration and trade.
Brexit is not going to resolve the cultural divide over nationalism vs internationalism either within the country or within the Conservative Party. It is at the core of how we reform as a country.
Once we're out of the EU all of those other arguments are going to seem very small indeed. Right now we have multiple factions within the party, one which wants to subvert the vote and remain in the EU without having a second vote, one which wants a second vote to reverse the first one, one which wants to stay in the single market, one which wants to be detached but still friendly and one which wants completely out. All of them are opposed to the others. After Brexit only the two extreme views will still cause issues, and the completely out group will just get on with life, only the remain faction will continue their campaign and turn it into a rejoin one.
After Brexit the party will look a lot more united. On the core issue of globalist vs nationalist, you are correct, but that's an issue the public is split on, as we saw during the vote.
I think it's the opposite. Brexit will not solve this post globalism identity crisis, it is a symptom of it. Recent polling again shows disparity on Leavers and Remainers on "British Values" questions: there is only a slight difference (except with same-sex royal couplings), but there is clearly a values divide that has nothing to do with the EU. I remember right after the referendum a poll coming out about positive / negative views of things like feminism and such, and the divide between Remainers and Leavers. We talk about them as those two camps, but half the leave crowd are better of being described as social / values conservatives, with the other half maybe more libertarian business leaning, with remainers split between cosmopolitan lefties and status quo business people.
I think it will be interesting to see how things pan out. The most recent election saw the start of a possible re-alignment with Lab winning middle class Canterbury and Kensington, while the Tories took working class Mansfield and Walsall North. If this makes the start of a wider re-alignment based on American style "culture wars" could we one day see the Tories winning in Barnsley, while Labour take Maidenhead? Alternatively it could be a flash in the pan and we see these seats return to their traditional allegiances next time around.
Obviously I should have just invested this £2 into bitcoin, as the winnings are far greater than 16-1, but could Trump come out with something ?
7/04/2013 Single To Win Any head of state to publicly blame Bitcoin for destabilising national currency by the end of 2017 @ 16/1 Bitcoin Specials Bitcoin Specials £2.00 Pending
David Davis made clear he was ready to quit the Cabinet if Damian Green was unfairly fired over allegations of porn and inappropriate behaviour, it was revealed today.
Sources said the Brexit Secretary had “put his cloak around” the embattled Mr Green in an effort to toughen Theresa May’s resolve to defend her deputy.
The disclosure came as a retired Scotland Yard detective alleged that “thousands” of pornographic images were found on Mr Green’s computer in 2008.
Obviously I should have just invested this £2 into bitcoin, as the winnings are far greater than 16-1, but could Trump come out with something ?
7/04/2013 Single To Win Any head of state to publicly blame Bitcoin for destabilising national currency by the end of 2017 @ 16/1 Bitcoin Specials Bitcoin Specials £2.00 Pending
Could do.
Shocking bet by Paddy Power.
Head of State rules out Theresa May and Justin Trudeau for starters.
I suspect if anyone did it would be the Governor of the Bank of England or their equivalent.
David Davis made clear he was ready to quit the Cabinet if Damian Green was unfairly fired over allegations of porn and inappropriate behaviour, it was revealed today.
Sources said the Brexit Secretary had “put his cloak around” the embattled Mr Green in an effort to toughen Theresa May’s resolve to defend her deputy.
The disclosure came as a retired Scotland Yard detective alleged that “thousands” of pornographic images were found on Mr Green’s computer in 2008.
Nope, because we will be bogged down in feuds over transition, immigration and trade.
Brexit is not going to resolve the cultural divide over nationalism vs internationalism either within the country or within the Conservative Party. It is at the core of how we reform as a country.
Once we're out of the EU all of those other arguments are going to seem very small indeed. Right now we have multiple factions within the party, one which wants to subvert the vote and remain in the EU without having a second vote, one which wants a second vote to reverse the first one, one which wants to stay in the single market, one which wants to be detached but still friendly and one which wants completely out. All of them are opposed to the others. After Brexit only the two extreme views will still cause issues, and the completely out group will just get on with life, only the remain faction will continue their campaign and turn it into a rejoin one.
After Brexit the party will look a lot more united. On the core issue of globalist vs nationalist, you are correct, but that's an issue the public is split on, as we saw during the vote.
I think it's the opposite. Brexit will not solve this post globalism identity crisis, it is a symptom of it. Recent polling again shows disparity on Leavers and Remainers on between cosmopolitan lefties and status quo business people.
I think it will be interesting to see how things pan out. The most recent election saw the start of a possible re-alignment with Lab winning middle class Canterbury and Kensington, while the Tories took working class Mansfield and Walsall North. If this makes the start of a wider re-alignment based on American style "culture wars" could we one day see the Tories winning in Barnsley, while Labour take Maidenhead? Alternatively it could be a flash in the pan and we see these seats return to their traditional allegiances next time around.
Tories still won ABs and Labour DEs it was just the Tories won the skilled working class C2s and tied lower middle class C1s too.
In the US Trump had his biggest lead with middle income, non college graduates but he still won the richest voters and Hillary had her biggest lead with the poorest voters.
If the Conservatives drop below 305 or so seats (on a 650 seat Parliament), I can't see them staying in office.
There are 650 seats. Take off say 7 for Sinn Fein non-attendance, that leaves 643, making 322 sufficient to control Parliament. The Lib Dems will not enter government with either party and at best will offer neutrality on critical votes. Let's assume for the purposes of argument that the Lib Dems get 12 seats again - there's no particular reason right now to assume they'll get more or less than they have now. That means that the total on votes of confidence is 631, making the practical majority 316. If the Conservatives get 305 and the DUP get say 10, that's one short of the practical majority.
An added complication comes from the fact that the SNP won't vote on England-only matters, meaning that a Labour minority government propped up by nationalists with Lib Dem abstention would be especially unstable. But 325 isn't the relevant number for Labour to be thinking about. The relevant number is probably considerably lower.
David Davis made clear he was ready to quit the Cabinet if Damian Green was unfairly fired over allegations of porn and inappropriate behaviour, it was revealed today.
Sources said the Brexit Secretary had “put his cloak around” the embattled Mr Green in an effort to toughen Theresa May’s resolve to defend her deputy.
The disclosure came as a retired Scotland Yard detective alleged that “thousands” of pornographic images were found on Mr Green’s computer in 2008.
Comments
It does also highlight the greying population. Under current ONS projections (inc current rates of immigration) the working age population is stable to 2030. The population growth is in the over 65's.
What's a little bit astonishing is how naive politicians seem to be about setting up systems that will put themselves at risk of blackmail in future. (Or maybe the blackmail is already happening, and that's why they keep doing it.)
http://www.cityam.com/276757/mayor-takes-control-london-stadium-due-financial
The joke is, of course, that if he had stuck it out and kept his head down post referendum, he could well have in a good position to succeed TMay, particularly if Brexit goes badly.
Instead, he's reduced to sniping from the Evening Standard in Partridge-esque "needless to say, I had the last laugh" style. Sad.
It's an extraordinarily underestimated skill to have a mind that can calculate that quickly on such a broad range of subjects.
I dread to think what I'd say if someone thrust a microphone in my face on live TV.
Even if what they say is bullsh*t it's still impressive how articulate the best politicians are. Cameron was the master.
The inflexible Brexit timetable works against us. We should be kicking the ball around, not into the long grass, but until we know what we want that is achievable,
https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/olympic-stadium-review.pdf
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/23/trying-to-understand-why-the-lib-dems-arent-doing-better-in-the-polls/
So last night’s Lib Dem surge is down to me ?
Lifespan is not infinitely expansile due to biological senescence. Indeed, as an observer of these things, life after about 92 is not a lot of fun.
Heard of GOM, Gladstone's nickname. Liberals said it stood for Grand Old Man. Conservatives said it stood for God's Only Mistake.
Of course it just refers to age, not quality of life.
Short, unforgettable and really quite nasty, the ‘FEC’ sobriquet was daubed on the young Michael’s locker by one of Lancashire’s furry beasts within weeks of the boy’s emergence – via Manchester Grammar and Cambridge – into Old Trafford’s macho, beery dressing room. “Anybody with a further education was sneered at,” Atherton later wrote of those early days in the Eighties, adding that while the initials were “assumed to stand for Future England Captain” in actual fact the middle word was ‘Educated’ and the others, well, you can work out for yourself. “It was clear I was going to have to work hard to earn my stripes at Old Trafford,” he added, “so I played down my Cambridge education as much as I could.”
http://www.alloutcricket.com/features/the-ten-cricketer-nicknames
I will boringly remind everyone that my main reason for voting Remain was that Brexit would be virtually impossible to put into effect and it would shittify UK politics (and everything connected with it) for at least a decade.
Whci, of course has depressing connotations for Prince Charles
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/936566185008738304
Sources said the Brexit Secretary had “put his cloak around” the embattled Mr Green in an effort to toughen Theresa May’s resolve to defend her deputy.
The disclosure came as a retired Scotland Yard detective alleged that “thousands” of pornographic images were found on Mr Green’s computer in 2008.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-secretary-david-davis-in-threat-to-quit-over-damian-green-porn-storm-a3707546.html
Lib Dem votes have to be earned.
If only that were so for all parties.
'Porn searches for Meghan Markle go through the roof as lusty royalists set their sights on raunchy sex scenes'
http://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/porn-searches-meghan-markle-go-11606318
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/01/damian-green-porn-work-police-mp?CMP=share_btn_tw
Who authorised the raid in the first place?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/01/scotland-yard-now-investigating-retired-police-officer-damian/
Would still need PC support too to get to the 326 needed for a majority - Plaid would 100% support a Labour Gov't when push comes to shove.
"with Labour rebels like Field and Hoey taking a tough pro Leave line" - Remainers Anna Soubry and Ken Clarke voted through the Tory/DUP QS, the idea Hoey and Field wouldn't do for JC is a nonsense.
"even before you get to the Blairites" - They'll all vote through the Labour manifesto, Corbyn will have made ~ 50 gains.
Corbyn is PM on these numbers.
Why should anyone believe him this time?
http://www.bbc.com/sport/cricket/42192294
So it could be 4 right arm seamers and little Joe Root as the spinner....head desk thud thud thud thud.
7/04/2013 Single To Win
Any head of state to publicly blame Bitcoin for destabilising national currency by the end of 2017 @ 16/1
Bitcoin Specials
Bitcoin Specials £2.00 Pending
Tomorrow afternoon's thread features George Osborne CH.
Shocking bet by Paddy Power.
Head of State rules out Theresa May and Justin Trudeau for starters.
I suspect if anyone did it would be the Governor of the Bank of England or their equivalent.
He thought it would be easy.
https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/735770073822961664
In the US Trump had his biggest lead with middle income, non college graduates but he still won the richest voters and Hillary had her biggest lead with the poorest voters.
There are 650 seats. Take off say 7 for Sinn Fein non-attendance, that leaves 643, making 322 sufficient to control Parliament. The Lib Dems will not enter government with either party and at best will offer neutrality on critical votes. Let's assume for the purposes of argument that the Lib Dems get 12 seats again - there's no particular reason right now to assume they'll get more or less than they have now. That means that the total on votes of confidence is 631, making the practical majority 316. If the Conservatives get 305 and the DUP get say 10, that's one short of the practical majority.
An added complication comes from the fact that the SNP won't vote on England-only matters, meaning that a Labour minority government propped up by nationalists with Lib Dem abstention would be especially unstable. But 325 isn't the relevant number for Labour to be thinking about. The relevant number is probably considerably lower.