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Robert Mugabe is probably not a man much amused by historical irony. That’s a shame because if he was he might appreciate the various mirror images between his enforced retirement and the downfall of the Nawab Siraj-ud-daulah of Bengal in 1757. The Nawab – at 24, nearly seven decades younger than Mugabe – was deposed by the East India Company after it bribed his commander with the offer of the crown provided he betray his prince at the Battle of Plassey, which he duly did. That action laid the foundation stone of the British Empire in India. Mugabe, by contrast, led Zimbabwe into independence and in so doing, set the sun on the last large piece of territory in the Empire.
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Summary: Zim may belong to China but the UK belongs to Russia, and Farage is about to get his collar felt over euref irregularities.
However, its a big IF, as if you look at the site as a whole, it is one massive conspiracy theory e.g. it was China and Russia who stole the US election, Fox News coordinated with them to broadcast their propaganda, etc etc etc.
Edit - But if the stuff on it is true, wow.
Colour me sceptical that the Russians have only just discovered cooperation between U.K. & US Intelligence....
(My instinct is that Brexit would still win - even if what is alleged came fully to light and Farage were arrested and convicted.)
Fascinating stuff. Where is Yokel? He's long been predicting hot water for Farage and I've never known him to be wrong at least (Mensch, not so much).
Why is Alistair Cook even in the side, he’s not had a decent innings in at least a year now?
But this really looks like the Gabba now. England are indeed being tested.
However, I wouldn't view a suspension of Article 50 as the government "trying to find a way out" as you previously suggested --- but as the only just and legitimate course remaining to the government should the Mensch-report be accurate.
And a shame that this story has overshadowed another thoughtful lead from David. That the Chinese are all over Africa isn't news. I saw it myself in Ethiopia seven years ago. But the implications for democracy in Zimbabwe are not good, if they are behind the coup as he suggests.
Edit/ no-wonder the Russian economy is struggling, the amount they appear to be spending on foreign political campaigning.
Power is in large part about money. When we had the capital and economic dominance we painted the globe red looking for more markets and opportunities to exploit. China is now developing huge excess capital through its enormous surpluses and those surpluses will be invested around the world buying influence and opening new opportunities.
To be honest it doesn't really matter whether we are concerned about this or not because the global economic trends are still well set. This is one of the consequences of running persistent deficits as the west has done with what might with hindsight might prove to have been a delusional belief in the "free trade" that served them so well when they had substantial comparative advantages.
Cook racked up some decent (!) scores for Essex last year, though.
Did the Russians fail to implement transitional immigration arrangements unlike most other rich EU countries to the new accession states?
Did the Russians make Angela Merkel issue her “People Smugglers Charter” with her “Come one come all” declaration then have the EU compound it by saying “You’ll All take some”?
While the Russians may have interfered at the margins, the fundamentals of what drove the Brexit Vote were put in place by successive U.K. governments and EU commissions.
In any case, when you include the government leaflet, “Remain” outspent “Leave” by 50%.....
It is only a matter of time (10 years) before Indian Ocean becomes the new South China Sea.
Brrr. On-topic, an interesting and astute article.
There was a bit on the news about Zimbabwe's need for investment, with great mineral wealth but the frequent lack of money on the landowners' part to mine. That's the sort of thing our foreign aid should be ploughed into. It'd help lift Zimbabweans out of poverty, get taxes for the state to provide services *and* provide us with a return on income too. It makes perfect humanitarian and financial sense.
On that note, the 0.7% foreign aid fund was seemingly untouched by the recent Budget (the term 'Autumn Statement' appears to have vanished). Hacking it down for health or other spending would've gone down well with most people, but where the political class have a consensus the electorate's disagreement doesn't matter for a long time. (Such as the EU. If politicians had bothered to ask us before frittering away vetoes and binding us ever closer, we not only probably would've averted the nuclear option, we wouldn't be chained so tightly anyway).
However there will eventually be a case where they either have to lose their influence or take more direct measures. When that occurs (and history shows us it is a when, not if), it will be very interesting to see how they respond.
And BTW, an excellent threader. Thanks, David.
However, if you're an American, it won't be clear whether those ships are for the Indian or Pacific Oceans, not least because there can be no such distinction.
Or at least the older among us do!
There's no evil in making a profit and doing so by enriching a poorer nation and helping lift its people out of poverty. It's a perfect example of benevolent capitalism.
And, because it's aid not 'trade', we keep Liam Fox away from Zimbabwe.
If we didn't have a ring-fenced foreign aid budget I'd likely agree with you.
https://twitter.com/MorrisF1/status/933251973477949441
Of course David is right that it is symptomatic of a failure in the West but of all the possible futures for Africa I do not see Chinese hegemony being any worse than previous European, US or Russian versions.
The Chinese model of buying up Africa does not require military power, simply economic power and a willingness to deal with local regimes.
The Chinese are reasonably comfortable with one party kleptocracies like Zim and Angola, but also able to work well in more democratic countries like Zambia. Not always popular, with poor labour practices, but the Zambian Copperbelt is looking prosperous again.
We have no Foreign policy other than Brexit. That is how it will be for the lost decade in front of us.
Modern empires are an economic construct.
A friend of mine has met boris Johnson and said he's an arrogant oaf, but if that was the only account it'd be worth taking with a pinch of salt. Foreign aid for a start. Regardless it was the maudlin cry of lost decade that stood out not that we'll focus hugely on Brexit. If Charles or someone comes by and says they know an important person and they don't think we're in for a lost decade, that isn't proof either, except to Ian for some rea son.
It also needs an on-the-ground presence in Africa so that it can, if necessary, intervene to protect its assets and its people. "Buying up Africa" works fine until a regime either decides to do something silly, or loses control. At that point, you need guns.
On a much lower level we have tried to make a success of the Commonwealth. Whether we have got much out of that to date is open for debate but it may prove useful in the future. We have become a major player in aid which has given us a say in many trouble spots where our military interventions have been negligible. We have tried to promote green policies in respect of both global warming, conservation and now plastics. We have quite a lot to say and many are willing to listen for a variety of reasons.
Where have the Chinese interfered with military force in protection of overseas commercial interests, apart from against Somali pirates?
The Chinese see the South China Sea as their patch, not unreasonably.
Time Magazine is disputing US President Donald Trump's account of how he rejected a request for an interview and photo shoot ahead of its Person of the Year issue.
On Friday, Mr Trump tweeted that Time had called to say he was "probably" going to be named Person of the Year.
But Time later said the president was incorrect about how it makes its choice.
The president was awarded the title last year.
He has previously falsely claimed that he holds the record for cover appearances on Time Magazine.
http://africa.chinadaily.com.cn/weekly/2015-11/27/content_22522846.htm
That is precisely what China has done.
In the longer term, we hope Africa and indeed China will move towards liberal democracy, but it's perfectly understandable if someone in a Harare slum doesn't feel that's the immediate priority. To give a parallel, my mother's family were close to Kerensky, Lenin's rival, but they despaired of the way he put Parliamentary democracy and institution-building ahead of what most people wanted - peace and bread.
I'm in Kenya for the next few days for a UN conference. When I was last there 5 years ago, it felt very friendly but poor and not very dynamic. Interested to see if that's changing at all.
China began operations from its first military base in Africa earlier this year.
http://www.newsweek.com/chinese-military-china-and-us-military-base-africa-644890
Not just us, but the French in Maghreb, West and Equatorial Africa, the Germans in Namibia, the Russians in Caucuses and Central Asia, USA in the West, Phillipines and Caribbean were military ventures, sometimes alongside commercial interests.
This is the Chinese way and is called Guanxi. It's a word and concept anyone who does any kind of business in China needs to understand.