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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today’s budget buzzword bingo
Ladbrokes have put up their customary Budget buzzword bingo, I’m avoiding this market as nothing leaps out as value and I really don’t fancy contributing to the Ladbrokes Christmas bonus fund. Ladbrokes also have a market up on the colour of Philip Hammond’s tie, this is another market I’m going to avoid for the same reasons.
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How about we play a new game. Fantasy bookmaking.
Who can paper-lay the buzzwords to generate the best return?
I'll lay everything except for "brexit" - the odds on that are arguably generous IMO.
So, I'm laying "northern powerhouse" for 2 units, "millenials" for 1 unit, "austerity" for 1/3rd of a unit, etc etc.
Sums to 9.42 units. I recon i'll turn a decent paper profit on this one.
They talk about Britain's exit from the EU/leaving the European Union.
But what do I know!?
Hammond may decide to reiterate the Brexit means Brexit mantra for a nice round of applause!
Vs. your attempt I will lay all except prosperity, outward looking and Millenials.
Northern powerhouse might be worth backing, on second thoughts. Possibly.
TM mentioned it in her cough speech - and I don't think hammond has completely given up on the idea. Hmm. No. Odds aren't attractive enough for me. I stick by my lay.
Punters playing this market will pay for Ladbrokes xmas party.
Although from memory Ladbrokes did very poorly on Corbyn's speech didn't they?
There were quite a few big payouts I think... magic money tree etc.
Fit for the future at 5/2 looks good. Of the longshots, Venezuela, Marxist, or Dinosaur look interesting, because I think he will have a pop at Corbyn, but the odds aren't brilliant.
AIUI, he used to deliver an alternative *proper labour* budget every year when Gordon Brown was chancellor.
Everyone ignored him. But he has, at least, had a fair amount of practice. His response should be quite good.
Edit: no you are correct.
http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/check-and-approve-government-spending-and-taxation/the-budget-and-parliament/
This is funky;
"By tradition, the Chancellor, unlike Ministers at the despatch box at any other time of the year, may drink alcohol during the Budget Speech if they wish.
Former Chancellor George Osborne chose to drink mineral water. Oher Chancellors have chosen mineral water (Gordon Brown and Alastair Darling), whisky (Kenneth Clarke), spritzer (Nigel Lawson), gin and tonic (Geoffrey Howe), brandy and water (Benjamin Disraeli) and sherry and beaten egg (William Ewart Gladstone)."
The problem is, I can just imagine Labour's response after six months in office:
We did: sod all about tuition fees because despite what we said we don't care about you really, got rid of a huge number of graduate jobs, increased everyone's debts by 50%, and carried on with Brexit.
But we did make housing affordable thanks to the banking collapse. Only thing is, to keep the economy alive at all we've had to nationalise it so you're never going to own a house anyway.
And that, in a nutshell, is why Corbyn is still struggling to break through decisively in the polls. Not because this government is any good but because he would be considerably worse.
If Hammond really wanted to be naughty, he could say 'Fascist' instead with a long hard look at Emma Dent Coad. That would be trolling!
Edit - autocorrect tried to change Hammond to 'hammock' - is my phone expecting a snooze fest?
Edit - this is quite fun for those who want to remember some of Osborne's more famous disasters. It was in the pasty tax budget and got a lot less attention, but cost far more money to sort out:
http://youtu.be/cEWgVkBKpeI
I won on Magic Money Tree last time
Like the ban on letting agent fees.
A year later....
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/oct/21/rent-property-letting-agent-fees-government-ban
I think that the interesting bits (well, relatively interesting) is whether provision is made for a WTO Brexit ; whether he accepts borrowing is going to increase again and makes a virtue of it by increasing "investment" Gordon Brown style; whether he seeks to tinker with the NMW; whether he either pauses or removes the 6 week delay in UC; and whether he increases the tax burden overall (I think yes) to fund the blessed NHS. Just maybe another Royal Commission on care costs?
Of course for us poor benighted Scots any good news on tax reductions is very unlikely to be implemented north of the border.
The issue is still that tinkering around the edges of tax and spending makes little appreciable difference to the finances, Chancellors of all stripes need to have the guts to properly raise taxes or cut spending.
Recidivist said:
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What he has done is reset the Labour brand. It is now distinctively different from the Blair years. The press and Tories have so far helped.
That's right. Corbyn's personal ratings have by no means declined - May retains the incumbency bonus as "best PM" but is otherwise well behind on most counts. I think that most people have got used to the idea that Corbyn might become PM and it could be OK, which just a year ago wasn't the case.
However, Corbyn has reset the Labour brand as "real left" (we argue about what that means, but most people have a general concept of it), and that's a package that floating voters treat with caution. They don't rule it out and even more extreme leftism isn't as tainted as right-wingers would like (cf. the poll showing that a huge majority would prefer communism to fascism in a forced choice), but it means that they don't automatically flip when the Government's in trouble.
I don't think a Labour win is a slam-dunk, given the huge uncertainties ahead, and I think there will be periods where the Tories do well when the EU negotiations succeed (as they will in the end). But the visible fatigue of office will pull them back and in the end I do expect Labour to win next time by a modest majority.
Surely he will do something on UC...
I agree with you on a Brexit deal's likelihood - and at this stage the bar has been set pretty low.
The Tories will probably have a new leader also (and potentially someone relatively unknown to the public at this stage) which should reduce the fatigue of office issue. Corbyn won't be as strong a change candidate next time, having been Opposition leader for 4+ years...
But the Tories don't really seem to know what they stand for - and it's likely the economy will have deteriorated by the time of the next election.
Risky territory for a Conservative I suspect...
He just doesn't strike me as that daring.
Voting Labour last time was presented as a free hit - against 'Austerity' , against 'Brexit', against 'Globalisation' (because that's the real thing that many Labour voters are complaining about whether they realise it or not).
But once it's not a free hit and Corbynite Labour have a chance of actually winning, that will concentrate minds significantly, and many who took their free hit probably won't again because they have a Garden, or a Home they couldn't now afford to buy, or a private pension, or something else that they fear will be 'redistributed'.
That would be extremely naughty but it would be hilarious!
Big raise in personal allowance?
Something on housing - allowing councils to raise council tax on planing permission rather than on completion?
Something on VAT that’s constrained by the EU - domestic energy, tampons?
My favourite request, which I say every year - reversal of benefit-in-kind treatment of employer-provided health insurance, maybe with an allowance against NI for small businesses.
https://twitter.com/newstatesman/status/933077811924996104
If he manages some kind of climb down on universal credit that will at least endear him to the rebels.
To win over the Brexiteers?
Perhaps he can make some kind of bold no-deal contingency plan...
The biggest hardship on housing is on young people in the sought east. Most of them commute to work because driving/parking is so difficult, especially in London. You want to put some money back in their pockets, but not everyone else's and you want to find a cheap mechanism for doing it which doesn't make the tax code more complicated, it might actually have some value.
Mr. Pulpstar, that'd be a gift for the smugglers...
On-topic: nothing especially tempts me. I just hope he doesn't completely bugger it up.
I almost feel sorry for Hammond. Whatever he does will invoke rage from his back benches. Whatever he does will not avoid the economic crash from the hard Brexit his cabinet seem obsessed with. Whatever he does will be a drop in the black hole of funding shortfall in the NHS or social security or local government or investment or housing or the cost of living.
Much higher than I thought it'd be.
Those in their 50s with good jobs need to be encouraged to shovel every spare penny into pensions, otherwise they’ll be relying on the state in future.
WWC?
By the way, does anyone think that Corbyn’s labour are going to actually help the young *buy* a house, rather than make it cheaper to rent one? As soon as prices start falling appreciably the deposit requirements for a mortgage will rise and make home ownership even more unattainable than it is now.
Some reciprocal 2-year youth work visa scheme for the under 30s in the EU, and also with other countries like Canada and Australia, and further help for first time home buyers would seem to do the trick by GE2022.
The rest is getting the rhetoric and mood music right, which matters.
Reality is, the Conservatives likely already enjoy a sizeable share among those 39%. Mori’s post election poll showed that the Tories polled around 27% approx with 18-24 year olds.
The more worrying statistic for the Tories (which was perhaps the point Curtis was trying to make) is that among the under 40s more generally, 54% have a positive view of immigration, as opposed to only 34% of the over 65s viewing it this way, and that this difference in cultural outlook is likely to be a millstone round the Conservatives’ neck.
Westminster sent a letter yesterday Band H council taxpayers consulting on the introduction of a voluntary "community contribution" equivalent to Band H tax payable by owners of a houses worth >£10m (effectively doubling council tax at the top end)
Hardly obsession with hard Brexit
A slow rise keeping nominal house prices heading north generally but also reducing in real terms (& in relation to wage growth) with inflation at about a constant 2.1% would work well.
Farming out the Gov't & civil service to Birmingham or Manchester (London has a tremendous private industry that serves it well) could be a proper catalyst to stopping the south-east growth/inflation compared to the rest of the countrys' general malaise. Shfting the BBC generally to Manchester has seen a bit of a boon there tbh which is good for the country as a whole.
At the moment almost all the polls are suggesting a Labour minority government even if the Tories win most seats, to get a majority Corbyn would need a lead approaching 7%, especially while the SNP continues to win most seats in Scotland even if Corbyn made a few inroads in Glasgow and the Central belt in June.
My son's off, and I believe Smithson Jnr is now a Californian. Could become a stampede.
Moving as many civil servants out of London as possible is also a good idea, but needs to be done carefully to avoid areas where relatively high public sector salaries crowd out local businesses.
Trudeau's Canada or Australia or even Macron's France (provided he sees off Melenchon and Le Pen in 2022) are all better bets for stability, growth and centrist politics in the next decade than the UK or USA
Everyone is screwed for retirement.
I mean check this:
As of 30 December 2016, Australians have $2,199 billion ($2.2 trillion rounded) in superannuation assets, making Australia the 4th largest holder of pension fund assets in the world.
It's a tremendous formula for success.
It'll be a grim few days for the tories, just a question of whether small nonsense about pasties makes the headline running , or if some major stuff falls flat , and If Hammond makes it to the weekend. I give it 50 50.
But that was on TV; Hammond never gets off-camera.
The majority of such people are unlikely to be those claiming pension credit in the future.
£100,000 pension savings currently pays £3,150 per year at age 65, with a 3% annual uplift and 50% support for spouse of the same age.
Edit: Looks like a minimum fare of £12 for peak tickets, so would work for occasional London commuters from the Home Counties, but definitely not for season tickets which are full price for everyone.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/16–25_Railcard
But evidence on higher rate relief encouraging saving?
And encouraging saving in the right groups of people?
From a summary of Private Pensions Institute report for instance:
"There is limited evidence around the effectiveness of tax incentives in
encouraging pension saving. However, such evidence as there is suggests
that tax relief is not very effective in incentivising saving."
http://www.pensionspolicyinstitute.org.uk/publications/reports/tax-relief-for-pension-saving-in-the-uk