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As ever, this is one poll, we need to see more polling to see if this is an outlier or the start of a new trend, it was only a month a go, we saw a Populus poll in the aftermath of the vans campaign, that saw the Tories drop 5 and saw UKIP up by 4, that turned out to be an outlier.
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I'm hoping we get the ComRes phone poll tomorrow night
Signed :
Disgusted of Auchentennach
And
Even More Disgusted of Harpenden.
It was on the specific Leadership over Syria that isn't good for him. IMHO
I don't think anyone here agrees with me on this but I think Cameron's position could be in danger in the next week or two. That's not to say that losing the vote is the end of the world or that he's doing disastrously badly or anything, but the party rules just make it really easy for a small number of people to spark a vote of confidence without even having anything like a functioning plot, and if they did that right now, I don't think he'd win it.
I do agree with you re Dave being at risk.
I'd say about a month because of the timing of the Tory conference.
I was hoping to do that piece today but it will have to wait until tomorrow as I'm off to see Liverpool between Manchester United (i hope) this afternoon
The Sunday Times @thesundaytimes
A poll of more than 20,000, commissioned by Lord Ashcroft, has found that voters feel immigration hurts the UK thetim.es/15pLxUa (Free)
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/public/article1308078.ece
I said it would make as big a difference to the polling as Osborne's budget. I simply had lunch with four non political friends from advertising who were more aghast at the Governments proposed action than at anything since before the election.
The point to learn is that Mike has gathererd in this community of political anoraks a very skewed sample. Tories were being booed on 'Any Questions'. Incoherent Dianne Abbott was being cheered. People were talking about it in cafe's and bars. People were angry. Yet none of the blue notes on here saw it.
Cameron and co live in a bubble. They just didn't see anything. My big fear was that Miliband might live in it too. If he can do what the Lib Dems did and build on it he should sail through the next election because whoever Cameron hires wont stop him from being completely out of touch
"The world of journalism was rocked to its foundations last night as a top newsman claimed to have discovered the secret of "journalese".
Amid chaotic scenes, a press bigwig launched a foul-mouthed tirade at this effort to expose the secret language used by highly trained professionals to make their stories sound more exciting. A raft of top-level crisis talks were set to take place today behind closed doors in an 11th-hour bid to defuse this calculated snub.
The Independent on Sunday has learnt that Bloomberg political reporter Robert Hutton's book, Romps, Tots and Boffins, is published this month by Elliott & Thompson. This newspaper understands from senior sources close to the publisher's publicity department that the book contains a guide to those words never used in normal life, such as "floral tributes" and "TV funnyman"... http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/press/boffin-lifts-the-lid-on-journalese-a-new-book-puts-spotlight-on-newspaper-tricks-and-a-raft-of-redfaced-clichs-8793022.html
Tory rules then allow th eserious candidates to come in at the second round. May has kept her profile low.
My take is that this will not damage Cameron too much in the short term. The rebels will be gloating amongst themselves for a while but a drip-drip long term view of his lack of organisational ability alongwith an already existing narrative that he does not understand most of the Tory MP's, let alone the rank and file.
Miliband's Syria handling and personal ratings see to contradict each other considering both are coming from the same sample.
"I dont want to lose my reputation for being the worst tipster on here ...."
Fear not Roger some of the finer PB traditions are inviolate.
Related to two days of furious counter-spin from No.10 and the tory papers. Still has had little effect on the overall direction of travel hough.
I do not think this is necessarily an outlier. But may only have a short term effect until Syria goes off the radar for most people.
Is David Cameron at risk? He might stand down. One thing the vote showed is how many Conservatives simply don't care very much about loyalty to their leader. I doubt they have a replacement in mind, but they just aren't very interested in backing their man. Personally I think that's a good thing.
Fitalass was linking this last night. May have been a different newspaper. My 2-1 rule for referendums is slowly establishing itself.
Return of the Blairite summer briefers, whose August project is in ashes. Now they're on the wrong side of public opinion and international events.
Tories occasionally link Andrew Rawnsley some time. I would like to return the compliment.
"Fear not Roger some of the finer PB traditions are inviolate."
Thanks Jack! You and I sit at opposite ends of the tipping scale
NB: not that he *doesn't* listen, but that he doesn't know *how to* listen
I'm not surprised that Labour have an uplift in the polling. The mood of the country on Syria is for a bit of "dithering", a wait-and-see policy (as is my view).
Whether that feeling extends to a five-year PM who dithers may be another matter.
She is credible, but I don't believe she would win if she challenged now. A good chance of winning the leadership next time round - either 2020 or 2015 depending on your views. Provided, of course, she continues to perform.
` He needs to do something quickly to capitalise on the opportunity.`
Luckily he needs to do nothing else this time but to have a good conference in September.
I once heard a story about Helmut Kohl [ the same possibly goes for Angela Merkel ]. Whenever, he met some lowly party official he had met before, he addressed him by his name. Such small things matter a lot to the foot soldiers.
"It's difficult to see how a nine point rise on EdM's rating can be spun as a negative.....A few of us thought that might be the only meaningful polling result of last week's events."
I remember both you and NickP saying the same that this wouldn't affect polling either way which for non Tories surprised me.
I can't remember being more certain of anything. Just everywhere I went people were exercised. I knew it had to have an effect. I can only think that like me most of your political talk is done on here. Just sometimes it's worth being reminded what a very skewed political sample post on here. They're basically fanatical loyalists. Just read some of the stuff from the normally excellent Nabavi over the last few days. They read like Fitilass.
"Not surprisingly, attitudes to immigration are far from uniform. My analysis reveals seven segments of opinion on the subject. At one end of the scale is the “universal hostility” group, 9 out of 10 of whom name controlling immigration as one of the most important issues facing Britain, with almost as many saying their area has changed for the worse because of it. At the other end are the “militantly multicultural”, dominated by graduates and professionals, and with a significant public-sector contingent, most of whom believe immigrants have enhanced the life, culture and economy of Britain — and who are twice as likely as the population as a whole to have employed immigrants to do cleaning or building jobs at home..." Ashcroft commentary to poll http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/public/article1307359.ece
All the data is here http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/09/public-opinion-and-the-politics-of-immigration/#more-2428
Agreed. David Cameron is such an out of touch brideshead toff that he put going to war to to a parliamentary vote, something right on man of the people tony blair never did.
It proved so unpopular than the world's most powerful democracy decided to do it as well.
Con: 27%, Lab: 38%, LD: 9%, UKIP: 18%.
Full tables, p.23
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Immigration-Poll-Full-tables.pdf
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/09/public-opinion-and-the-politics-of-immigration/
"Ashcroft’s polling for the report captures how most people recognise both pressures and benefits from immigration. Six out of ten see the disadvantages currently outweighing the benefits, but people’s most common personal experience of migrants is in being treated by doctors and nurses in the NHS (83%), while 36% perceive a negative impact on job prospects for them or their family, and 24% say the same about access to housing or public services. 36% say the scale of immigration has changed their local area for the worse, while 37% disagree.
The poll shows that migrants are seen as hard-working, and as the opposite too. The most commonly cited benefit (49%) is that migrants do jobs that need doing but which British people don’t want to do; yet the biggest concern about immigrants, cited by 62%, is that migrants claim benefits and use services without contributing.
Reading the Sunday papers, Tony Blair really has some neck on him, he must buy Brasso by the tanker full.
The 'don't knows' are: 2010 Con: 13%, 2010 Lab: 9%, 2010 LD: 21%
The danger for Dave now is that the media narrative could move against him.
As I've said I think all three parties would do better with different leaders.
Agreed. I see France's standing has been boosted in the world. Obama was so impressed by the offers of support from the mighty gauls he decided.....er........to put the whole thing on ice.
In fact, the British parliament has effectively determined the whole western policy approach.
So Cameron has dumped the policy in circumstances that did not do much for the government's credibility or reputation for competence.
Now what?
My guess would be that Miliband's Vicky Pollard positioning will come under strain as events unfold. But maybe I am being optimistic. What I think is clear is that if the government stays away from involvement in Syria they should not continue to take a hit on this.
In short I am not sure that this is an outlier but I do think the effect will be fairly short term.
Read the papers today and the media narrative is moving against Ed, not Dave. The Mail, Telly and Sun are all making trouble for Ed today.
Syria has shown us we need to spending more, much more on our boys, ships and flying stuff. No more post Afghanistan P45s.
Agreed. Thing about those papers though, is they have a CIRCULATION.
" When a previous prime minister passed the baton of decision-making on war and military intervention from 10 Downing Street to Parliament, he committed his successors to a tortuous path over which he or she might have limited control.
Last week, David Cameron trod that path with commendable conviction but unwise haste. Parliament, with an ear to the high street, stopped him in his tracks.
Were this not such a serious matter, it could have been passed off as another quiet August news story, but the consequences are profound not just for the Prime Minister but for the United Kingdom and our standing in the world; not forgetting the people of Syria, who are in the eye of this particular storm. The tragedy is that it should not have been like this. No decent person could disagree with the view that the use of chemical weapons, either on or off the battlefield, is a morally repugnant act and contrary to international law.
Although media focused on the votes in the House of Commons, Thursday’s debate in the House of Lords was no less intense, with a heavy majority of speakers arguing against military action in Syria now, even in the light of the chemical attack in East Damascus. I was one of those speakers... > http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10278389/Syria-crisis-Theres-no-military-solution-yet-says-former-head-of-Army.html
2010 vote split.
2010 Con
Con: 68%, Lab 5%, LD: 1%, UKIP: 24%
2010 Lab
Con: 3%, Lab: 88%, LD: 1%, UKIP: 6%
2010 LD
Con: 9%, Lab: 32%, LD: 35%, UKIP: 15%
2010 UKIP
Con: 3%, Lab: 3%, LD: 1%, UKIP: 91%
Have you got Tourettes? You keep repeating the same post every ten minutes or so....
He writes what sells, doesn't care about what people think. The guy is a commercial genius. A sh1t of the highest order, but a commercial genius.
"my Mum made an interesting comment. She sat next to Cameron at dinner a few weeks ago and her reaction afterwards was "this man doesn't know how to listen"."
Maybe she was boring him
More likely Geordie Greig (an Old Etonian as it happens) who edits the Mail on Sunday.
Are you still stuck in that burst sofa in Grouchos, nice and comfy? goood..
Sunny Hundal @sunny_hundal
Ed Miliband *will* repeal the Bedroom Tax, reports the Sunday People. A matter of when not if bit.ly/15ulAMt
It's attitudes, not class that matter.
When you turn up at a blazing building and apply the same logic then the building and all in it will burn out.. so why bother..Why have a fire service.
"66% of people agree with the argument that chemical weapons are especially horrific and should be regarded as a crime against humanity, 26% think they are terrible… but no worse than the mass killing people using other methods. People are not, however, convinced that the Assad regime has used them – 43% think they have, 43% don’t know. Overall 68% think it is right that Britain does not take part in military action, 16% think Britain should have taken part.
When people opposed to military action were asked why the effect of Iraq and Afghanistan becomes clear – 36% said it was because they wanted UN support for an attack, 38% that it would make things worse not better, but the biggest single factor (mentioned by 51%) was the fear that a limited missile strike would inevitably lead to more British involvement later, and ultimately Britain being dragged into another land war.
Looking to the future, while people were opposed to British involvement in an attack on Syria, they are not opposed to us offering support to the USA doing it! By 48% to 31% people would support the USA being allowed to use British bases in Cyprus, 70% think we should share intelligence about Syria with the US, 64% that we should support any attack diplomatically at the UN. It looks as though it is British involvement people oppose, not an attack per se."
As you would expect, the general public take a sensible view of the entire picture.
Leaving aside everything that happened on Wednesday and Thursday, the one question that has not been answered properly still remain:
What happens next [ after the bombing ] ?
US Television networks are carrying this story that when Obama met the Generals and Admirals on Friday and asked would Syria still have a military capability after the attacks, "he almost fell of the chair" !
In the US too, like in the UK, Kerry's gung ho speeches , similar to Hague, and the subsequent decisions, somehow don't gel ! It's the Lord Kitchener story !
The Guardian paper copy is only bought by 250000 but it has 3 million online readership similiar to the Mail.
"The Sun has lost the biggest percentage of it`s readers amongst the papers."
The Sun don't have readers. They just look at pictures.
From their science correspondent.
http://img.thesun.co.uk/aidemitlum/archive/01392/19perfectbreasts_1392319a.jpg
Comparing it to the May local election result:
Con: 25% (-2), Lab: 29% (-9), LD: 14%(+5), UKIP: 23% (+5)
We have a civil war going on in that country between two pretty unsavoury sides," he said.
"It is not goodies versus baddies, it is baddies versus baddies and that is why it is very important that we don't make a very difficult situation worse."
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-01/abbott-vows-to-detail-full-spending-cuts-by-thursday/4927488
This is the fourth day you have posted this type of comment. Can I assure you that the underlying message has been read, comprehended and that there is no need for you to repeat it for the rest of the week.
Yours &c.,
“Even a very close friend was on the receiving end of a dressing-down. David Thorburn, a Clydesdale district manager, had been best man at Goodwin’s wedding. At a management “away day” Goodwin asked him, in front of fellow executives, why he had moved a statue in one of the Aberdeen branches — and was not satisfied with the explanation. Fred gave David a kicking. He went absolutely mental,” a friend says.
For moving a statue? This was symptomatic. Clydesdale executives noticed that Goodwin’s extraordinary attention to detail manifested itself in unusual ways. The former accountant seemed to have very little interest in the traditional components of a bank chief’s activities. He was obsessed with profit and growth; but questions of credit and risk, the basics that govern how much is lent and to whom, seemed to hold little appeal. He was much more fixated on subjects such as the cleanliness of branches, ordering a mass tidy-up across the Clydesdale. He took to mounting patrols, springing surprise inspections on unsuspecting staff. The alleged scruffiness of the branches became a particularly vexed question.
Would you care to lose some money on your 2-1 rule.
Cameron also lied when referring to this chemical attack as the first since almost hundred years ago.
Have we forgotten Halabja where our politicians blamed Iran, at first, since Saddam was our friend.
So was Assad, who so nicely entertained our rendered AQ suspects in his torture chamber.
"It is not goodies versus baddies, it is baddies versus baddies and that is why it is very important that we don't make a very difficult situation worse."
Well as that seems to be what the people are thinking everywhere its smart politics for someone wanting to be elected
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2408040/ANDREW-ROBERTS-Hideously-amoral-Little-England-stepped-looking-glass.html#ixzz2ddA2J8Z9
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
Elsewhere in the paper, Hitchens calls for Cameron to go as expected, but Sir Christopher Meyer and Brooks Newmark say Obama's decision to consult Congress is a boost for Cameron
"Are you still stuck in that burst sofa in Grouchos, nice and comfy? goood.."
Last time I was there that comfy sofa was occupied by Vaughan and Atherton. Should I read anything into that?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03b50np/House_of_Lords_Syria_Debate/