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Survation for The Mail on Sunday – VI (Change since August 4th)
CON 29% (+1)
LAB 37% (+1)
UKIP 17% (-1)
LD 11% (NC)
AP 7% (NC)
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Stephen Crabb MP:
"The world does not suddenly become a nicer or safer place just because a small majority of MPs decide that Britain should sit on its hands and watch on from the sidelines. Britain remains one of a very small number of democratic nations with the military and diplomatic capability to help to defend international law.”
http://www.stephencrabb.com/displaynews.aspx?ArticleID=295
Chief of Defence Staff Birmingham has been obliterated in a nuclear attack launched from Iran, Prime Minister. What are you instructions?
PM Miliband Are you sure it is Iran, Chief?
Chief of Defence Staff The intelligence assessment shows the highest level of confidence, Prime Minister.
PM Miliband But what about French intelligence reports? What do they say?
Chief of Defence Staff Manchester has now been hit , Prime Minister. Shall we respond?
PM Miliband I need to consult my shadow cabinet, Chief. And wait for tomorrow's YouGov polls.
Chief of Defence Staff Liverpool,has now been hit Prime Minister. I urge you to make a quick decision. London is sure to be next.
PM Miliband Will it affect Islington and Brewers Green?
Chief of Defence Staff It is sure to, Prime Minister. Glasgow and Faslane now gone, Sir.
PM Miliband Let me sleep on it, Chief.
[Prime Minister exits Cabinet Room and runs upstairs]
PM Miliband Justine! Justine!
In hindsight, he he wanted military action in Syria, he should have come out against it, that would have got the public behind military action in Syria
Kenny Farquharson @KennyFarq 19m
We've an #indyref opinion poll in tomorrow's SoS.
Interesting figures. Sounds like it's seen more as a victory for Parliament than defeat for Cameron. Ironic, given the result was something of a farce, but there we are.
The fieldwork was entirely after the government defeat. Survation interviewed 1002 respondents online on Friday afternoon and evening seeking their reactions to the Government’s House of Commons defeat over Syria.
Hopefully the people paying his wages will see that and put him out to grass.
Timetabling.
It seems Cameron is now getting criticism on the timetabling of this as well as the recall. A few thoughts on this:
The time pressure came from Obama; it seems he wanted to launch before or at this weekend, before he went away on an international trip. Obama does not have to get congressional approval before ordering strikes. As the senior member of any coalition, he has the final say on the timetable.
Cameron wanted (rightly IMHO) for parliament's will to be known. For that to happen, he had to recall parliament with all the problems and inconvenience that entails.
He could only release the analysis of intelligence information that the UK had. He could not press the US to release their analysis earlier than Obama wanted. As Obama did not need congressional approval, the best time to release the US's information was shortly before the planned strikes. There is also a danger that such a combined move may have made it looks as though it was a concerted effort, devaluing both in some people's eyes. (*)
It is hard to see what else Cameron could have done to stop this, aside from choosing not to respond to the use of chemical weapons in Syria. That was a very difficult moral and political decision.
(*) It is obvious that for many of our parliamentarians, no amount of evidence would be enough. That belief seems to be echoed by some on here.
PM Miliband I need to consult my shadow cabinet, Chief. And wait for tomorrow's YouGov polls.
Avery, I cannot see why PM Miliband would consult the shadow cabinet. You Tory fops still think you wil be in charge. Fruedian !
"Justine, Justine", I presume that refers to his wife and not asking Justine Greening to emerge from the locked room with the other MP to vote !
Blair's like that. Except instead of being gay he's just a massive liar, and instead of being homphobes we've simply realised it.
41% tell Survation that Cameron the party leader trusted most to handle international crises. EdM scored 21%
Why has there been no "Ed is Crap" threads the last two days ?
Miliband's shadow cabinet would be the MPs sitting around the coffin-shaped cabinet table at Number 10. His real cabinet will be the union barons.
(/cue Tory PB mode)
;-)
In referring to Ed as "PM Miliband" I am inciting the time honoured dramatic impact known as "supension of disbelief".
And, arguing in the alternative, only you would fight on a technicality.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
By 52% to 26% the those polled by Survation that they didn't agree with No10 accusation that EdM gave "succour” to the Assad regime
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
By 55% to 45% the Survation sample said they don't Cameron’s judgement on whether President Assad was responsible for chemical attacks
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
39% told Survation/MoS poll that Tony Blair's article supporting action weakened case for UK intervention. 8% said it strengthened it
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
41% tell Survation that Cameron the party leader trusted most to handle international crises. EdM scored 21%
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
Confirmed. All fieldwork for Survation/MoS poll was carried out yesterday AFTER Commons vote
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
A larger version of the Survation infographic on Syria
survation.com/wp-content/upl…
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
The Survation poll for Mail on Sunday Survation finds support for military strikes in Syria at 19%. with 65% opposed
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
Haven't got this confirmed but my understanding is that Survation poll carried out after Commons vote
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
Just 22% tell Survation MoS poll that Cameron in touch with public opinion on Syria - 60% say he wasn't
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
Infographic from Survation on its Syria findings for Mail on Sunday poll
pic.twitter.com/E61IBrOQvJ
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
The Survation 17% for UKIP is lowest for several months
At peak in May the firm had Farage's party on 22%
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
New Survation poll for Mail on Sunday
Changes from Aug 4
CON 29% (+1)
LAB 37% (+1)
UKIP 17% (-1)
LD 11% =
The monster's mouth narrowed into a malicious grin, and he began to speak in his heavy Middle Eastern accent.
"Ah, my boy! I see you still haven't slimmed down yet! Why is that?" he asked, and he leaned across the desk menacingly.
"I tried, Bashar! Honest, I tried!" Dave replied, quivering with fear!
"Trying is not good enough!" roared the monster, and quick as a flash he leapt out from his chair, grabbing Dave in the process, and using his immense strength, flinging him onto the nearby couch! Bashar then leapt back behind the desk, and, laughing maniacally, opened a drawer and produced a massive hacksaw!
"No! Please, Bashar!" whimpered Dave pathetically. "Please, don't!"
But the monster was adamant to teach him a lesson. He leapt back towards the couch and proceeded to hack off Dave's pseudo-feminine man-boobs with a single scythe-like motion! Mutilated and bleeding, Dave begged for mercy. But Bashar next did something that even Dave swore was just a myth: he extended his twelve-inch long proboscis, and used it to puncture the poor lad's blubbery abdominal region! And then to suck hard!
"Nooooooooo!" Dave screamed, as he felt the monster guzzle up his precious life-fat, and within moments he was just a sack of skin and bones, fat-less it has to be admitted, but unfortunately life-less too. Once he had drained every last drop of his latest victim's, er, "load", Bashar let out a satisfied belch and a soft, low growl of contentment, before leaving the doctor's surgery.
Following AveryLP's admirable plan. Here's my own contribution...
Chief of Defence Staff: Birmingham has been obliterated in a nuclear attack launched from Iran, Prime Minister. What are you instructions?
PM Miliband: Where in the world is Birmingham?
Chief of Defence Staff: It's our city, Chief. A bit north.
PM Miliband: My God, you mean our voters?
Chief of Defence Staff : Yes
PM Miliband: They live, or lived in Birmingham did they? I never knew.
Chief of Defence Staff: Manchester too now, Prime Minister. Shall we respond?
PM Miliband: Why, what have the Tories said?
Chief of Defence Staff: No Sir, I mean Manchester has been obliterated too.
PM Miliband: Well it had so much to answer for. My voters like the Smiths. Do you think the line will play well?
Chief of Defence Staff: Sir!?
PM Miliband: Yes?.. Oh my word I forgot to ask you how your weekend in Kent went. Did you meet my friend Trevor?
Chief of Defence Staff: No Sir, our response?
PM Miliband: Well just pooh-pooh anything the Tories have said, and make sure that we're not agreeing with Tony.
Chief of Defence Staff: Sir, I don't think you understand the gravity of the situation. This is your big test!
PM Miliband: Oh why didn't you tell me Yvette was here before! I have a big red button that I can press you know. It'll quieten down you defence types I tell you.
He's not tweeted it as many times as I have
[Averaging eight consecutive polls as shown on this Wikipedia page]
The Conservatives need a new chief whip and improved party discipline.
Perhaps the Conservative whips assumed that their MPs would 'never oppose a chance to bomb ragheads' as a PB sage informed us.
Is Cousin Seth back from Cleethorpes yet ? The local Conservative MPs opposed giving succor to Al Qaeda it should be noted.
Yes, I rather miscalculated there, ar.
I forgot how much Tories preferred frolicking in the summer months to serious work.
And as for the bombers, it appears most of those have become kippers and are wandering around the seaside pubs of England pretending to be peaceniks.
I fully expect Farage to adopt as the new UKIP logo the now decommissioned CND mark.
@TSEofPB
'Good result for Ed - 21% is huge for a contemptible slug.'
Polzeath 41% Weasel 21%
Ed played a blinder..
Your view's echoed in the comments to Robinson's most recent piece: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23909443
"This is a very clever win for Cameron. He gets to tell America that he really wants to join in but can't because his hands are tied after the vote.
He upsets the Americans less than telling them no straight out and the British public is happy because he isn't taking us into another unpopular war.
As a bonus, if it turns out we SHOULD have intervened, he can blame labour for voting no."
Survey carried out over period before and after Commons vote that saw David Cameron defeated in bid to win backing
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/aug/31/poll-british-military-action-syria?CMP=twt_fd
Congrats, either way.
Hollande will be able to fire a second missile purely on the proceeds.
Writ smaller (and poorer
Writing-wise I'm reasonably happy, but marketing/promotion is proving trickier. Got something like 5-6 reviews for Journey to Altmortis in the pipeline, though no idea how fast/slow they'll be.
(*) Having said that, I found 'Bible of the Dead' so engrossing that I stayed up until after midnight in my tent one night to complete it. Hence giving me an eyestrain-induced headache from reading to by torchlight, a sore neck, and making me extremely tired for the next day's hike.
Reading the book in a tent, on a wild camp during a storm does add a certain atmosphere to the proceedings!
Clearly your talents are not just related to thrillers.
Well done, sir.
I'll go for Ivor Biggun
Bizarre? You mean a website called political betting decides to do a thread on the poll findings on the week's major political event.
That is definitely bizarre.
My first chance to comment on the events of Thursday and the political fallout from the events in Parliament.
You know what, I'm not going to.
I'm more interested in the views of the public and why many people are now thinking the way we do. I believe the events of Iraq and Afghanistan, along with the economic downturn, have created a new insularity. The world is now our street and our community and beyond that, we don't know and we don't want to know.
The recession forced us all to look inwards and attitudes to subjects like welfare and immigration reflect that new insularity. Some simply have to work hard to survive while others are much less secure about their economic circumstances. Insecurity breeds insularity - we may well sympathise with civilians gassed in their homes but that doesn't mean we want to do anything about it.
Instead, we want to turn away from the world, haul up the metaphorical drawbridge in the belief that we need to concentrate on solving our own problems. The world has caused us problems be it immigration or financial insecurity and we want as little to do with it as possible.
We may not be able to say, as we once did about other places that Syria "is a far off country about which we know nothing". We do know what is happening but we don't care because our concerns are now parochial. We worry about our own communities and society and indeed many see those changing beyond recognition.
Again.
I say he goes for Gaius Julius Caesar
Right now people seem to be reading on a fair range of devices. I suspect e-readers will remain for the voracious and those who go on holiday often, but tablets will also persist.
He's done a piece and he concludes with
Last week's defeat for Cameron, and the way he responded to it, may have been a victory in disguise.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/david-camerons-unlikely-victory-from-defeat-8792877.html
Looks like PM Erdogan of Turkey was right. Last night I reported that he said that action would occur in the next two weeks. Yesterday, from a military perspective at least, this appeared plain nuts. Delays in launching the attacks has already given Assad's forces plenty of prep time (so much so the Pentagon is having to redo its lists) so more delay didn't make sense. Perhaps Erdogan had picked up the straws in the wind. I suspect he is miffed.
Many speculations. Is Obama looking a get out of jail free card? He has habit in domestic politics of hitching people to the wagon to take the return fire when things get difficult so this may be the same move. He might be looking Congress to say no and get out of overt action full stop. This promptly cuts off the legs of John Kerry.
If he's not playing a very cynical game domestically, then you have to assume that he thinks he has this nailed down. The Administration was due consultations with Congressional types this afternoon. Is it possible he had them in the immediate minutes before his statement? Perhaps the US intends a decent sized strike & needs the cover.
Most significant part of the speech. He talked about private support around the World that he wanted to be public. If you are a Gulf State in particular you'll know what he is getting at. They back it, they host bases, but they have yet to come out and say, 'yes we support such action'. Other countries have been similar. Like Obama's own leading from behind approach, a lot of people want to hide behind someone else's skirt. If they all start doing it, its a bit awkward. US officials want publicly stated support. Maybe 4 or 5 have made it crystal clear they back US military action.
On the ground its made a question for Assads forces. They scattered, officials have got out of the way,command buildings have been left. How does this play out for them knowing something might occur but they have to wait with already a marginally impacted military infrastructure until a strike is over? Will it negatively affect them or will they think that the US will bottle it and just roll on?
Same for insurgents, if Assad's military capabilities have been a bit thrown out of sync, can they take advantage?
Finally, what would you make of it in Tehran. Moscow & wherever Assad is sitting? Laughing possibly.
edit: Should add that if the above is correct other actors may want to push things the other way e.g. Turkey, Saudi etc.
She actually admits in the author's notes that she ran out of steam, and that her editor had to help her with the ending.
Horror is really hard to do, because it depends on the reader / viewer's perceptions. Mrs J loves horror films because they frighten her, whereas they don't do much for me. I can admire them artistically, enjoy the plot, but the horror aspect doesn't really seem to effect me.
When I was a young teenager, 'The Rats' really freaked me out. I read it last year for the first time in two decades, and it had lost all its impact.
Good luck with the story. Any chance of getting a copy signed for my collection? ;-)
That said, Pyrrhus was famously loyal (on a personal level), so perhaps the comparison is not very apt.
Bad news for the Yes campaign as poll shows record low in support for independence
These PB Tories get everywhere don't they? As I said earlier Yvette is this weeks big winner, not Janus Miliband.
"Paradoxically, Miliband finds himself in the even more awkward position of being aligned with public opinion. Most voters probably share his deep emotional aversion to Britain's being seen as an "aircraft carrier for the US". But that leaves him with the feeble argument in public that perhaps if we speak nicely to Vladimir Putin he'll have a quiet word with his client Assad. And in private, further damage has been done to his standing in his own Shadow Cabinet.
They saw at close quarters how he vacillated last week, first appearing to support air strikes and then inventing spurious grounds for delay. They saw how he played politics with a question of national security, refusing to support the Government when it conceded all his points, proving himself, as Sir Malcolm Rifkind said, "incapable of taking yes for an answer".
Last week's defeat for Cameron, and the way he responded to it, may have been a victory in disguise."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/aug/31/syria-commons-vote-cameron-miliband?CMP=twt_fd
sunday herald @newsundayherald 20m
After the Falkirk scandal: Unite union plans to boycott Labour conference in support of suspended members
sunday herald @newsundayherald 19m
Bad news for the Yes campaign as poll shows record low in support for independence
I'd enjoy reading a discussion between you, and Joe Abercrombie, another author who likes to discuss with fans how he goes about writing a novel - and who shares your dark humour.
A must read for all PBTories. Your organisation sucks !
He'd never have done any writing?
Have you got no political antenna at all ?
Ed Miliband is facing mounting criticism from within his own party for his handling of the vote on Syria, amid fears that Labour’s approach has damaged Britain’s standing on the world stage
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10278338/Syrian-crisis-Ed-Miliband-faces-growing-criticism-from-Labour-ranks.html
This is a must read for the Redheads then???
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10278338/Syrian-crisis-Ed-Miliband-faces-growing-criticism-from-Labour-ranks.html
MPs have privately begun to voice concerns that their leader made a catastrophic mistake by engineering the defeat of the Government’s motion in the House of Commons on Thursday night.
If not, I suggest from now on we call it a "Cameron Defeat". Where the loser wins.
You need the link: https://twitter.com/thomasknox
Edit: you edited - works now.
I'm hoping not to have that tomorrow.
Remember though Yvette's having a great Summer 2013!!!!
(as an aside, I remember the wonderfully named King Zog I used to claim to be the most famous King of Albania since Pyrrhus)
Twitter
Kenny Farquharson @KennyFarq 18m
Scotland on Sunday front page. pic.twitter.com/CQF7h5z7Jx
Kenny Farquharson @KennyFarq 32s
New #indyref poll: Yes 29; No 59. YouGov, commissioned by DevoPlus. Full details and breakdown in tomorrow's Scotland on Sunday.
Amongst the thrashing around in this article, guess who also pops up...
Miliband likes to posture as a prophet of a new, ethical politics, but he has never looked more grubby than he did on Thursday: conspiring to thwart Cameron in order to distance himself from the memory of Tony Blair and Iraq. It goes to show how quickly politicians’ skin hardens and how low their horizons can fall. I had Miliband down as one of those who, seeing the images of Ghouta, would set party politics aside. But his raging desire to dissociate himself from Blair and his own elder brother was stronger than his desire to associate himself with a robust international response to the use of chemical weapons. In his desperation to maximise his chances of becoming prime minister, he showed precisely why he is not fit to occupy that role.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10277616/A-nauseating-preening-and-grubby-carnival-of-inaction.html