Completely off topic observation from California re immigration controls post Brexit.
The US has a system where it's very easy for Canadians to get a US visa, so long as they have a written job offer (from a firm that pays US taxes), and don't have a criminal record.
It's relatively well designed so that you can't use it to work cash in hand in the US, as the visa ceases if the recipient stops paying payroll taxes.
The visa can be got on-line in just a few hours.
A system like this would make it pretty easy for professionals from the EU to work in the UK without going through massive hoops, but would mean we'd be able to keep out (and kick out) undesirables. It would also limit the amount of low skilled immigration, as a lot of that is cash in hand and/or turning up without a job offer.
Next task: how to persuade all the EU nationals who Leavers have been telling for the last two years that they despise and don't want that they should nevertheless look to spend time living and working in Britain.
My wife is still here (last time I checked).
Seven Brides for Seven Brexiteers.
She's just come and told me off for being on here again, actually.
Blair is of course right that with the government's current problems Labour should be much further ahead. That is especially true if Labour want to win a clear working majority.
However while Corbyn's 39.99% was below the 43.20% Blair won in 1997 and the 40.70% Blair won in 2001, Corbyn can point out that the voteshare he achieved was above the 35.2% Blair got in 2005.
Given how inaccurate YouGov were at the general election, yesterday's 3% lead is probably a 10% Labour lead.
I'd find the hypothesis that Jeremy Corbyn only got 40% because everyone thought Theresa May would win a landslide regardless much more convincing if he'd slipped back markedly in the polls since.
Yup, and look at his ratings compared to Mrs May, he's doing betters than Mrs May.
There's a bunch of complacent Tories who think the Tories will win the next election by having a new leader and not having the dementia means a Tory victory really boil my piss.
May was ahead of Corbyn as preferred PM the other day.
But, the Conservatives need to believe in themselves in again, if they expect the electorate to do so next time.
Given how inaccurate YouGov were at the general election, yesterday's 3% lead is probably a 10% Labour lead.
I'd find the hypothesis that Jeremy Corbyn only got 40% because everyone thought Theresa May would win a landslide regardless much more convincing if he'd slipped back markedly in the polls since.
Yup, and look at his ratings compared to Mrs May, he's doing betters than Mrs May.
There's a bunch of complacent Tories who think the Tories will win the next election by having a new leader and not having the dementia means a Tory victory really boil my piss.
May was ahead of Corbyn as preferred PM the other day.
But, the Conservatives need to believe in themselves in again, if they expect the electorate to do so next time.
Best PM doesn't also predict the election outcome, net approval/well/badly ratings are a better predictor.
I do agree about the Tories believing in themselves, but right now we have a PM that doesn't believe in herself.
Actually I do think she believes in herself in a big way
I think so too. Who else came up with the TM focussed leadership campaign? It was signed off by herself.
I would call it a delusional level of self belief, laden with hubris, but self belief it is.
Good to agree but I have no idea whether she will win through or not but at present she is the best we have got
Theresa May faces a devastating Commons defeat over Brexit within weeks if she continues to deny parliament a meaningful vote on the final deal with the EU, Tory and Labour MPs have warned.
With the withdrawal bill returning to the Commons on Tuesday, a cross-party group who oppose a hard Brexit and are co-operating on tactics say they believe they have the numbers to defeat the government if they are denied such a vote.
While the critical amendments and closest votes are not expected to be taken until next month, Tories who oppose a hard Brexit insist there is no softening of their position and that they are biding their time ready to strike before Christmas.
Theresa May faces a devastating Commons defeat over Brexit within weeks if she continues to deny parliament a meaningful vote on the final deal with the EU, Tory and Labour MPs have warned.
With the withdrawal bill returning to the Commons on Tuesday, a cross-party group who oppose a hard Brexit and are co-operating on tactics say they believe they have the numbers to defeat the government if they are denied such a vote.
While the critical amendments and closest votes are not expected to be taken until next month, Tories who oppose a hard Brexit insist there is no softening of their position and that they are biding their time ready to strike before Christmas.
Theresa May faces a devastating Commons defeat over Brexit within weeks if she continues to deny parliament a meaningful vote on the final deal with the EU, Tory and Labour MPs have warned.
With the withdrawal bill returning to the Commons on Tuesday, a cross-party group who oppose a hard Brexit and are co-operating on tactics say they believe they have the numbers to defeat the government if they are denied such a vote.
While the critical amendments and closest votes are not expected to be taken until next month, Tories who oppose a hard Brexit insist there is no softening of their position and that they are biding their time ready to strike before Christmas.
Theresa May faces a devastating Commons defeat over Brexit within weeks if she continues to deny parliament a meaningful vote on the final deal with the EU, Tory and Labour MPs have warned.
With the withdrawal bill returning to the Commons on Tuesday, a cross-party group who oppose a hard Brexit and are co-operating on tactics say they believe they have the numbers to defeat the government if they are denied such a vote.
While the critical amendments and closest votes are not expected to be taken until next month, Tories who oppose a hard Brexit insist there is no softening of their position and that they are biding their time ready to strike before Christmas.
Had this forum existed twenty years or more ago, I wonder how it would have been on election night 1997. Would the last few Conservatives have retreated into the darkness as the reality of their trouncing became clear ? Alas, we'll never know though we may find out on June 9th 2022 but that's an eternity away.
Tony Blair's triumph came from persuading millions of former Conservative and thousands of former Lib Dem voters that the Labour Party he led was a non-socialist party of the centre or centre-left and that the totemic aspects of the Thatcher Revolution would be preserved.
Even though the 1997-2001 Government was unremarkable in many aspects, Labour won a second landslide in an election in which by some measures the Conservatives did worse than 1997 and had so calmed the electorate that a large number saw no point in voting.
We will never know what a second Blair term might have been like as it was overtaken by the events of 11/9/01 which in their way continue to resonate long after their happening. The repercussions of that unforeseeable event have also afflicted Blair and trashed his reputation.
Yet like his contemporaries Clinton and Schroeder, I look back at the Blair years and struggle to see their impact. He had a mandate to be evolutionary and even revolutionary but spent so long reassuring post-Thatcherite Britain her revolution was safe in his hands he had nothing to offer beyond technocratic competent management.
Corbyn is the antidote to centrism if the latter is simply management of the existing status quo but if the mood is for change centrism is never going to attract support. Both 1945 and 1979 were huge repudiations of centrism - people voted in large numbers for change. It's not quite like that now - those wanting change are balanced by those wanting the status quo.
The mood for change is exuberant but multi-faceted and multi-layered. Corbyn can be all things to all people (just as LEAVE was arguably). A less polarising figure might not be able to harness the same energy and the corollary is the polarising figure props up the status quo as the desire for change currently is balanced by a fear of that change.
In both 1945 and 1979 the desire for change was overwhelming even if the dimensions of that change were neither fully explained not fully understood.
Theresa May faces a devastating Commons defeat over Brexit within weeks if she continues to deny parliament a meaningful vote on the final deal with the EU, Tory and Labour MPs have warned.
With the withdrawal bill returning to the Commons on Tuesday, a cross-party group who oppose a hard Brexit and are co-operating on tactics say they believe they have the numbers to defeat the government if they are denied such a vote.
While the critical amendments and closest votes are not expected to be taken until next month, Tories who oppose a hard Brexit insist there is no softening of their position and that they are biding their time ready to strike before Christmas.
Theresa May faces a devastating Commons defeat over Brexit within weeks if she continues to deny parliament a meaningful vote on the final deal with the EU, Tory and Labour MPs have warned.
With the withdrawal bill returning to the Commons on Tuesday, a cross-party group who oppose a hard Brexit and are co-operating on tactics say they believe they have the numbers to defeat the government if they are denied such a vote.
While the critical amendments and closest votes are not expected to be taken until next month, Tories who oppose a hard Brexit insist there is no softening of their position and that they are biding their time ready to strike before Christmas.
Theresa May faces a devastating Commons defeat over Brexit within weeks if she continues to deny parliament a meaningful vote on the final deal with the EU, Tory and Labour MPs have warned.
With the withdrawal bill returning to the Commons on Tuesday, a cross-party group who oppose a hard Brexit and are co-operating on tactics say they believe they have the numbers to defeat the government if they are denied such a vote.
While the critical amendments and closest votes are not expected to be taken until next month, Tories who oppose a hard Brexit insist there is no softening of their position and that they are biding their time ready to strike before Christmas.
Theresa May faces a devastating Commons defeat over Brexit within weeks if she continues to deny parliament a meaningful vote on the final deal with the EU, Tory and Labour MPs have warned.
With the withdrawal bill returning to the Commons on Tuesday, a cross-party group who oppose a hard Brexit and are co-operating on tactics say they believe they have the numbers to defeat the government if they are denied such a vote.
While the critical amendments and closest votes are not expected to be taken until next month, Tories who oppose a hard Brexit insist there is no softening of their position and that they are biding their time ready to strike before Christmas.
I do not hate anyone but I do not respect politicians who want to reverse the vote of over 30 million in a referendum approved by Parliament and then hide their own views behind sovereignty
Blair is of course right that with the government's current problems Labour should be much further ahead. That is especially true if Labour want to win a clear working majority.
However while Corbyn's 39.99% was below the 43.20% Blair won in 1997 and the 40.70% Blair won in 2001, Corbyn can point out that the voteshare he achieved was above the 35.2% Blair got in 2005.
As I say, Corbyn also got millions more votes than Blair in 2001, it was only the much lower turnout that year (driven by an already burgeoning disillusion with the choices - or lack of, under arch neoliberal Blair - on offer) that meant a greater vote share. Of course in 2005 Blair received a much lower vote share and number of votes than Corbyn.
Had this forum existed twenty years or more ago, I wonder how it would have been on election night 1997. Would the last few Conservatives have retreated into the darkness as the reality of their trouncing became clear ? Alas, we'll never know though we may find out on June 9th 2022 but that's an eternity away.
Tony Blair's triumph came from persuading millions of former Conservative and thousands of former Lib Dem voters that the Labour Party he led was a non-socialist party of the centre or centre-left and that the totemic aspects of the Thatcher Revolution would be preserved.
Even though the 1997-2001 Government was unremarkable in many aspects, Labour won a second landslide in an election in which by some measures the Conservatives did worse than 1997 and had so calmed the electorate that a large number saw no point in voting.
We will never know what a second Blair term might have been like as it was overtaken by the events of 11/9/01 which in their way continue to resonate long after their happening. The repercussions of that unforeseeable event have also afflicted Blair and trashed his reputation.
Yet like his contemporaries Clinton and Schroeder, I look back at the Blair years and struggle to see their impact. He had a mandate to be evolutionary and even revolutionary but spent so long reassuring post-Thatcherite Britain her revolution was safe in his hands he had nothing to offer beyond technocratic competent management.
Corbyn is the antidote to centrism if the latter is simply management of the existing status quo but if the mood is for change centrism is never going to attract support. Both 1945 and 1979 were huge repudiations of centrism - people voted in large numbers for change. It's not quite like that now - those wanting change are balanced by those wanting the status quo.
The mood for change is exuberant but multi-faceted and multi-layered. Corbyn can be all things to all people (just as LEAVE was arguably). A less polarising figure might not be able to harness the same energy and the corollary is the polarising figure props up the status quo as the desire for change currently is balanced by a fear of that change.
In both 1945 and 1979 the desire for change was overwhelming even if the dimensions of that change were neither fully explained not fully understood.
The mystery isn't 'why isn't Corbyn doing better' - he is doing very well - it is 'why hasn't the Tory vote dropped further?'. For their polling is holding up very well. And indeed they did well at the election, the surprise was that Corbyn also did very well, which was enough to critically wound the Tories. This is to do with extreme demographic polarisation and Brexit. However, it is very hard to see any scenario where the Tories do anything but go down between here and the next election, and it would only take the smallest of drops in relative fortune from 2017 to see them out of power (indeed, if they can meaningfully be described as being in power as it is..)
The mystery isn't 'why isn't Corbyn doing better' - he is doing very well - it is 'why hasn't the Tory vote dropped further'. This is to do with extreme demographic polarisation and Brexit. However, it is very hard to see any scenario where the Tories do anything but go down between here and the next election, and it would only take the smallest of drops in relative fortune from 2017 to see them out of power (indeed, if they can meaningfully be described as being in power as it is..)
Seen from your point of view - you may be right but equally you could be very wrong
It would have been nice if you'd bothered to comment on the substantive instead of making some pedantic point about which I'm not entirely sure you are correct.
. A poll rating of 43% is actually pretty good and in the last 50 years Labour has only once polled in excess of this level – ie 1997. Back in the 1950s & 1960s both main parties did poll higher vote shares, but that was at a time when hundreds of constiuencies were contested by just two candidates – with even the Liberals only fighting half the seats. A 3% Labour lead represents a swing of 2.7% in its favour since last June and would imply 35 gains from the Tories. In addition , Labour is well placed to pick up circa 20 seats from the SNP and probably Arfon from Plaid. Overall that would leave Labour just short of 320 seats.
. A poll rating of 43% is actually pretty good and in the last 50 years Labour has only once polled in excess of this level – ie 1997. Back in the 1950s & 1960s both main parties did poll higher vote shares, but that was at a time when hundreds of constiuencies were contested by just two candidates – with even the Liberals only fighting half the seats. A 3% Labour lead represents a swing of 2.7% in its favour since last June and would imply 35 gains from the Tories. In addition , Labour is well placed to pick up circa 20 seats from the SNP and probably Arfon from Plaid. Overall that would leave Labour just short of 320 seats.
I think that is a repeat post from a day or to ago Justin
The mystery isn't 'why isn't Corbyn doing better' - he is doing very well - it is 'why hasn't the Tory vote dropped further?'. For their polling is holding up very well. And indeed they did well at the election, the surprise was that Corbyn also did very well, which was enough to critically wound the Tories. This is to do with extreme demographic polarisation and Brexit. However, it is very hard to see any scenario where the Tories do anything but go down between here and the next election, and it would only take the smallest of drops in relative fortune from 2017 to see them out of power (indeed, if they can meaningfully be described as being in power as it is..)
There's no mystery about why the Tory vote is holding up. Many voters, me included, are simply terrified about the damage Corbyn and McDonnell would do to this country.
It would have been nice if you'd bothered to comment on the substantive instead of making some pedantic point about which I'm not entirely sure you are correct.
Sorry about that ! In a sense I was being pedantic , but under the terms of the FTPA the General Election due in 2022 will take place in the first Thursday in May. Theoretically a Statutory Instrument could delay that for two months - but that will not happen.
. A poll rating of 43% is actually pretty good and in the last 50 years Labour has only once polled in excess of this level – ie 1997. Back in the 1950s & 1960s both main parties did poll higher vote shares, but that was at a time when hundreds of constiuencies were contested by just two candidates – with even the Liberals only fighting half the seats. A 3% Labour lead represents a swing of 2.7% in its favour since last June and would imply 35 gains from the Tories. In addition , Labour is well placed to pick up circa 20 seats from the SNP and probably Arfon from Plaid. Overall that would leave Labour just short of 320 seats.
I think that is a repeat post from a day or to ago Justin
The mystery isn't 'why isn't Corbyn doing better' - he is doing very well - it is 'why hasn't the Tory vote dropped further?'. For their polling is holding up very well. And indeed they did well at the election, the surprise was that Corbyn also did very well, which was enough to critically wound the Tories. This is to do with extreme demographic polarisation and Brexit. However, it is very hard to see any scenario where the Tories do anything but go down between here and the next election, and it would only take the smallest of drops in relative fortune from 2017 to see them out of power (indeed, if they can meaningfully be described as being in power as it is..)
There's no mystery about why the Tory vote is holding up. Many voters, me included, are simply terrified about the damage Corbyn and McDonnell would do to this country.
McDonnell having a go at the Queen over tax havens when he receives a tax haven pension, labour HQ is rented from a tax haven, and labour councils are using them - one word - hypocrisy
Theresa May faces a devastating Commons defeat over Brexit within weeks if she continues to deny parliament a meaningful vote on the final deal with the EU, Tory and Labour MPs have warned.
With the withdrawal bill returning to the Commons on Tuesday, a cross-party group who oppose a hard Brexit and are co-operating on tactics say they believe they have the numbers to defeat the government if they are denied such a vote.
While the critical amendments and closest votes are not expected to be taken until next month, Tories who oppose a hard Brexit insist there is no softening of their position and that they are biding their time ready to strike before Christmas.
The reason that question doesn't work, is that there is no place in the constitutional theory of parliamentary sovereignty for the referendum. Such a thing was never contemplated, so we don't know how it fits in. So which tory leader do we respect more: the one who in 1975 called referendums “a device of dictators and demagogues”, quoting Clement Attlee, or the one who had one, and lost it?
There is also a cross-party delusion of omnipotence about the place. May cannot legislate for the precise date of brexit, and her opponents cannot outlaw a no-deal brexit. These matters are not in our power, and we must look to Europe like the Ruritanian parliament debating whether to amend or revoke the laws of thermodynamics.
. A poll rating of 43% is actually pretty good and in the last 50 years Labour has only once polled in excess of this level – ie 1997. Back in the 1950s & 1960s both main parties did poll higher vote shares, but that was at a time when hundreds of constiuencies were contested by just two candidates – with even the Liberals only fighting half the seats. A 3% Labour lead represents a swing of 2.7% in its favour since last June and would imply 35 gains from the Tories. In addition , Labour is well placed to pick up circa 20 seats from the SNP and probably Arfon from Plaid. Overall that would leave Labour just short of 320 seats.
Yes but the 42.34% the Tories won in June was also the highest Tory total since 1983, which makes the Labour total less good than it first appears. To win an overall majority Labour needs a lead of about 7% and it is nowhere near that at the moment, while in Scotland the latest Westminster polls show no change in terms of the Labour and SNP voteshare gap since the general election.
Theresa May faces a devastating Commons defeat over Brexit within weeks if she continues to deny parliament a meaningful vote on the final deal with the EU, Tory and Labour MPs have warned.
With the withdrawal bill returning to the Commons on Tuesday, a cross-party group who oppose a hard Brexit and are co-operating on tactics say they believe they have the numbers to defeat the government if they are denied such a vote.
While the critical amendments and closest votes are not expected to be taken until next month, Tories who oppose a hard Brexit insist there is no softening of their position and that they are biding their time ready to strike before Christmas.
The reason that question doesn't work, is that there is no place in the constitutional theory of parliamentary sovereignty for the referendum. Such a thing was never contemplated, so we don't know how it fits in. So which tory leader do we respect more: the one who in 1975 called referendums “a device of dictators and demagogues”, quoting Clement Attlee, or the one who had one, and lost it?
There is also a cross-party delusion of omnipotence about the place. May cannot legislate for the precise date of brexit, and her opponents cannot outlaw a no-deal brexit. These matters are not in our power, and we must look to Europe like the Ruritanian parliament debating whether to amend or revoke the laws of thermodynamics.
It would have been nice if you'd bothered to comment on the substantive instead of making some pedantic point about which I'm not entirely sure you are correct.
He is correct. Unless the FTPA is repealed and replaced[1] by some other proviso, then it requires the next general election to be held on the first Thursday in May of the fifth year since the previous one.
[1] It’s not enough to simply repeal the FTPA. That act abolished the royal prerogative to dissolve parliament, and once gone, an abolished royal prerogative cannot be revived.
. A poll rating of 43% is actually pretty good and in the last 50 years Labour has only once polled in excess of this level – ie 1997. Back in the 1950s & 1960s both main parties did poll higher vote shares, but that was at a time when hundreds of constiuencies were contested by just two candidates – with even the Liberals only fighting half the seats. A 3% Labour lead represents a swing of 2.7% in its favour since last June and would imply 35 gains from the Tories. In addition , Labour is well placed to pick up circa 20 seats from the SNP and probably Arfon from Plaid. Overall that would leave Labour just short of 320 seats.
I think that is a repeat post from a day or to ago Justin
Blair is of course right that with the government's current problems Labour should be much further ahead. That is especially true if Labour want to win a clear working majority.
However while Corbyn's 39.99% was below the 43.20% Blair won in 1997 and the 40.70% Blair won in 2001, Corbyn can point out that the voteshare he achieved was above the 35.2% Blair got in 2005.
As I say, Corbyn also got millions more votes than Blair in 2001, it was only the much lower turnout that year (driven by an already burgeoning disillusion with the choices - or lack of, under arch neoliberal Blair - on offer) that meant a greater vote share. Of course in 2005 Blair received a much lower vote share and number of votes than Corbyn.
Yes but of course May got more votes than Blair did in 2001 too, in fact she even got more votes than Blair did in 1997, it is voteshare and seats which is key not absolute votes.
Had this forum existed twenty years or more ago, I wonder how it would have been on election night 1997. Would the last few Conservatives have retreated into the darkness as the reality of their trouncing became clear ? Alas, we'll never know though we may find out on June 9th 2022 but that's an eternity away.
Tony Blair's triumph came from persuading millions of former Conservative and thousands of former Lib Dem voters that the Labour Party he led was a non-socialist party of the centre or centre-left and that the totemic aspects of the Thatcher Revolution would be preserved.
Even though the 1997-2001 Government was unremarkable in many aspects, Labour won a second landslide in an election in which by some measures the Conservatives did worse than 1997 and had so calmed the electorate that a large number saw no point in voting.
We will never know what a second Blair term might have been like as it was overtaken by the events of 11/9/01 which in their way continue to resonate long after their happening. The repercussions of that unforeseeable event have also afflicted Blair and trashed his reputation.
Yet like his contemporaries Clinton and Schroeder, I look back at the Blair years and struggle to see their impact. He had a mandate to be evolutionary and even revolutionary but spent so long reassuring post-Thatcherite Britain her revolution was safe in his hands he had nothing to offer beyond technocratic competent management.
Corbyn is the antidote to centrism if the latter is simply management of the existing status quo but if the mood is for change centrism is never going to attract support. Both 1945 and 1979 were huge repudiations of centrism - people voted in large numbers for change. It's not quite like that now - those wanting change are balanced by those wanting the status quo.
The mood for change is exuberant but multi-faceted and multi-layered. Corbyn can be all things to all people (just as LEAVE was arguably). A less polarising figure might not be able to harness the same energy and the corollary is the polarising figure props up the status quo as the desire for change currently is balanced by a fear of that change.
In both 1945 and 1979 the desire for change was overwhelming even if the dimensions of that change were neither fully explained not fully understood.
I think there are many centre-left voters who felt thoroughly deceived by Blair. Far from being centre-left , he turned out to be more of a centre -right Christian Democrat figure , and was well to the right of the pre-Thatcher Tory PMs we had experienced since World War 2. Indeed I would suggest he was to the right of Neville Chamberlain and Stanley Baldwin as well as more recent figures such as RA Butler, Reginald Maudling and Iain Macleod.The sense of let down and betrayal manifested itself in the collapse in turnout in 2001.
It would have been nice if you'd bothered to comment on the substantive instead of making some pedantic point about which I'm not entirely sure you are correct.
He is correct. Unless the FTPA is repealed and replaced[1] by some other proviso, then it requires the next general election to be held on the first Thursday in May of the fifth year since the previous one.
[1] It’s not enough to simply repeal the FTPA. That act abolished the royal prerogative to dissolve parliament, and once gone, an abolished royal prerogative cannot be revived.
Again, not terribly important except it will clash with the London Borough elections on the same day. The last time that happened was 2010.
The (political) future has rarely been more uncertain.
Under other circumstances, that might be exciting. At the moment, it is rather daunting.
Remember three years ago when the political future was not uncertain? Look how that turned out.
If you'd had asked us then what would be going down politically now the consensus would be 'Well, our crap PM Ed Miliband will be meeting Juppe and HRC at a G7 where they will probably just talk about global warming."
Had this forum existed twenty years or more ago, I wonder how it would have been on election night 1997. Would the last few Conservatives have retreated into the darkness as the reality of their trouncing became clear ? Alas, we'll never know though we may find out on June 9th 2022 but that's an eternity away.
Tony Blair's triumph came from persuading millions of former Conservative and thousands of former Lib Dem voters that the Labour Party he led was a non-socialist party of the centre or centre-left and that the totemic aspects of the Thatcher Revolution would be preserved.
Even though the 1997-2001 Government was unremarkable in many aspects, Labour won a second landslide in an election in which by some measures the Conservatives did worse than 1997 and had so calmed the electorate that a large number saw no point in voting.
We will never know what a second Blair term might have been like as it was overtaken by the events of 11/9/01 which in their way continue to resonate long after their happening. The repercussions of that unforeseeable event have also afflicted Blair and trashed his reputation.
Yet like his contemporaries Clinton and Schroeder, I look back at the Blair years and struggle to see their impact. He had a mandate to be evolutionary and even revolutionary but spent so long reassuring post-Thatcherite Britain her revolution was safe in his hands he had nothing to offer beyond technocratic competent management.
Corbyn is the antidote to centrism if the latter is simply management of the existing status quo but if the mood is for change centrism is never going to attract support. Both 1945 and 1979 were huge repudiations of centrism - people voted in large numbers for change. It's not quite like that now - those wanting change are balanced by those wanting the status quo.
The mood for change is exuberant but multi-faceted and multi-layered. Corbyn can be all things to all people (just as LEAVE was arguably). A less polarising figure might not be able to harness the same energy and the corollary is the polarising figure props up the status quo as the desire for change currently is balanced by a fear of that change.
In both 1945 and 1979 the desire for change was overwhelming even if the dimensions of that change were neither fully explained not fully understood.
Corbyn(ism) is an accident of FPTP and the two party system. He is the opposition, due to an accident of history.
He has driven the cons to a similarly extreme position, resulting in a polarisation driven by Brexit.
I suspect that most people, whose political philosophy probably extends to just wanting life to go on as normal, are not represented in politics any more. But they are not conscious of it yet. Most people don't want Liam Fox's red blooded delusions of anglo american capitalism any more than they want Corbyn's venuzuela style redistribution.
McDonnell having a go at the Queen over tax havens when he receives a tax haven pension, labour HQ is rented from a tax haven, and labour councils are using them - one word - hypocrisy
On the other hand, you have a Government which has lost Cabinet Ministers in successive weeks and seems to be making a dog's dinner of the most important negotiations in our country's recent history - one word - incompetence.
Blair is of course right that with the government's current problems Labour should be much further ahead. That is especially true if Labour want to win a clear working majority.
However while Corbyn's 39.99% was below the 43.20% Blair won in 1997 and the 40.70% Blair won in 2001, Corbyn can point out that the voteshare he achieved was above the 35.2% Blair got in 2005.
As I say, Corbyn also got millions more votes than Blair in 2001, it was only the much lower turnout that year (driven by an already burgeoning disillusion with the choices - or lack of, under arch neoliberal Blair - on offer) that meant a greater vote share. Of course in 2005 Blair received a much lower vote share and number of votes than Corbyn.
Yes but of course May got more votes than Blair did in 2001 too, in fact she even got more votes than Blair did in 1997, it is voteshare and seats which is key not absolute votes.
Corbyn won only 4 more seats than Gordon did in Labour's 2010 disaster.
McDonnell having a go at the Queen over tax havens when he receives a tax haven pension, labour HQ is rented from a tax haven, and labour councils are using them - one word - hypocrisy
On the other hand, you have a Government which has lost Cabinet Ministers in successive weeks and seems to be making a dog's dinner of the most important negotiations in our country's recent history - one word - incompetence.
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
Blair is of course right that with the government's current problems Labour should be much further ahead. That is especially true if Labour want to win a clear working majority.
However while Corbyn's 39.99% was below the 43.20% Blair won in 1997 and the 40.70% Blair won in 2001, Corbyn can point out that the voteshare he achieved was above the 35.2% Blair got in 2005.
As I say, Corbyn also got millions more votes than Blair in 2001, it was only the much lower turnout that year (driven by an already burgeoning disillusion with the choices - or lack of, under arch neoliberal Blair - on offer) that meant a greater vote share. Of course in 2005 Blair received a much lower vote share and number of votes than Corbyn.
Yes but of course May got more votes than Blair did in 2001 too, in fact she even got more votes than Blair did in 1997, it is voteshare and seats which is key not absolute votes.
Corbyn won only 4 more seats than Gordon did in Labour's 2010 disaster.
Blair is of course right that with the government's current problems Labour should be much further ahead. That is especially true if Labour want to win a clear working majority.
However while Corbyn's 39.99% was below the 43.20% Blair won in 1997 and the 40.70% Blair won in 2001, Corbyn can point out that the voteshare he achieved was above the 35.2% Blair got in 2005.
As I say, Corbyn also got millions more votes than Blair in 2001, it was only the much lower turnout that year (driven by an already burgeoning disillusion with the choices - or lack of, under arch neoliberal Blair - on offer) that meant a greater vote share. Of course in 2005 Blair received a much lower vote share and number of votes than Corbyn.
Yes but of course May got more votes than Blair did in 2001 too, in fact she even got more votes than Blair did in 1997, it is voteshare and seats which is key not absolute votes.
Corbyn won only 4 more seats than Gordon did in Labour's 2010 disaster.
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
Blair is of course right that with the government's current problems Labour should be much further ahead. That is especially true if Labour want to win a clear working majority.
However while Corbyn's 39.99% was below the 43.20% Blair won in 1997 and the 40.70% Blair won in 2001, Corbyn can point out that the voteshare he achieved was above the 35.2% Blair got in 2005.
As I say, Corbyn also got millions more votes than Blair in 2001, it was only the much lower turnout that year (driven by an already burgeoning disillusion with the choices - or lack of, under arch neoliberal Blair - on offer) that meant a greater vote share. Of course in 2005 Blair received a much lower vote share and number of votes than Corbyn.
Yes but of course May got more votes than Blair did in 2001 too, in fact she even got more votes than Blair did in 1997, it is voteshare and seats which is key not absolute votes.
Corbyn won only 4 more seats than Gordon did in Labour's 2010 disaster.
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
Theresa May faces a devastating Commons defeat over Brexit within weeks if she continues to deny parliament a meaningful vote on the final deal with the EU, Tory and Labour MPs have warned.
With the withdrawal bill returning to the Commons on Tuesday, a cross-party group who oppose a hard Brexit and are co-operating on tactics say they believe they have the numbers to defeat the government if they are denied such a vote.
While the critical amendments and closest votes are not expected to be taken until next month, Tories who oppose a hard Brexit insist there is no softening of their position and that they are biding their time ready to strike before Christmas.
The reason that question doesn't work, is that there is no place in the constitutional theory of parliamentary sovereignty for the referendum. Such a thing was never contemplated, so we don't know how it fits in. So which tory leader do we respect more: the one who in 1975 called referendums “a device of dictators and demagogues”, quoting Clement Attlee, or the one who had one, and lost it?
There is also a cross-party delusion of omnipotence about the place. May cannot legislate for the precise date of brexit, and her opponents cannot outlaw a no-deal brexit. These matters are not in our power, and we must look to Europe like the Ruritanian parliament debating whether to amend or revoke the laws of thermodynamics.
In other words, the 2016 referendum has resulted not only in a crisis in terms of our relationship with the EU, but also an existential constitutional crisis. The whole basis of our political stability has been undermined by the decision to hold the referendum.
Blair is of course right that with the government's current problems Labour should be much further ahead. That is especially true if Labour want to win a clear working majority.
However while Corbyn's 39.99% was below the 43.20% Blair won in 1997 and the 40.70% Blair won in 2001, Corbyn can point out that the voteshare he achieved was above the 35.2% Blair got in 2005.
As I say, Corbyn also got millions more votes than Blair in 2001, it was only the much lower turnout that year (driven by an already burgeoning disillusion with the choices - or lack of, under arch neoliberal Blair - on offer) that meant a greater vote share. Of course in 2005 Blair received a much lower vote share and number of votes than Corbyn.
Yes but of course May got more votes than Blair did in 2001 too, in fact she even got more votes than Blair did in 1997, it is voteshare and seats which is key not absolute votes.
Corbyn won only 4 more seats than Gordon did in Labour's 2010 disaster.
But he won quite a few more in England!
But fewer in Scotland
Indeed - though I suspect he will recoup many of them from the SNP next time!
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
I agree with most of that, but would point out the Government's vulnerability to by election reverses if and when they occur. The loss of just 3 seats would reduce the effective majority to 7 even with DUP support. Would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up such a political corpse all the way to 2022? I am not so sure.
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
I agree with most of that, but would point out the Government's vulnerability to by election reverses if and when they occur. The loss of just 3 seats would reduce the effective majority to 7 even with DUP support. Would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up such a political corpse all the way to 2022? I am not so sure.
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
I agree with most of that, but would point out the Government's vulnerability to by election reverses if and when they occur. The loss of just 3 seats would reduce the effective majority to 7 even with DUP support. Would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up such a political corpse all the way to 2022? I am not so sure.
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
I agree with most of that, but would point out the Government's vulnerability to by election reverses if and when they occur. The loss of just 3 seats would reduce the effective majority to 7 even with DUP support. Would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up such a political corpse all the way to 2022? I am not so sure.
One word - Corbyn
I fully understand that - indeed had Milliband still been Leader the DUP might not have propped the Tories up at all. I am simply suggesting that there could come a point - before 2022 - when the DUP no longer wish to be associated with this Government and would possibly welcome another election.
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
I agree with most of that, but would point out the Government's vulnerability to by election reverses if and when they occur. The loss of just 3 seats would reduce the effective majority to 7 even with DUP support. Would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up such a political corpse all the way to 2022? I am not so sure.
One word - Corbyn
I fully understand that - indeed had Milliband still been Leader the DUP might not have propped the Tories up at all. I am simply suggesting that there could come a point - before 2022 - when the DUP no longer wish to be associated with this Government and would possibly welcome another election.
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
I agree with most of that, but would point out the Government's vulnerability to by election reverses if and when they occur. The loss of just 3 seats would reduce the effective majority to 7 even with DUP support. Would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up such a political corpse all the way to 2022? I am not so sure.
One word - Corbyn
I fully understand that - indeed had Milliband still been Leader the DUP might not have propped the Tories up at all. I am simply suggesting that there could come a point - before 2022 - when the DUP no longer wish to be associated with this Government and would possibly welcome another election.
Ok. What sort or outcome from a GE would the DUP prefer to a Tory led government?
Blair is of course right that with the government's current problems Labour should be much further ahead. That is especially true if Labour want to win a clear working majority.
However while Corbyn's 39.99% was below the 43.20% Blair won in 1997 and the 40.70% Blair won in 2001, Corbyn can point out that the voteshare he achieved was above the 35.2% Blair got in 2005.
As I say, Corbyn also got millions more votes than Blair in 2001, it was only the much lower turnout that year (driven by an already burgeoning disillusion with the choices - or lack of, under arch neoliberal Blair - on offer) that meant a greater vote share. Of course in 2005 Blair received a much lower vote share and number of votes than Corbyn.
Yes but of course May got more votes than Blair did in 2001 too, in fact she even got more votes than Blair did in 1997, it is voteshare and seats which is key not absolute votes.
Seats and *relative* voteshare matter in the sense of the electoral arithmetic itself under (the hopefully soon to be defunct) FPTP, but the absolute votes are very important in shaping the political landscape of the future - with nearly 13 million votes, all labour has to do is stand still and if the conservatives see a modest downturn in their own fortunes from a historically high watermark - which is very easy to see given their lack of concrete political options - then they are in power.
And the simple fact is that Blair cannot get on his high horse when millions more people voted for Corbyn than for him in two out of the three elections he was gifted (losing millions of voters between each).
Blair is totally overrated, he was in the right place at the right time and his disastrous shedding of voters between 1997 and 2005 is a big part of what led to the putrefaction of the party and the need for a phoenix-like revitalisation via Corbyn.
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
I agree with most of that, but would point out the Government's vulnerability to by election reverses if and when they occur. The loss of just 3 seats would reduce the effective majority to 7 even with DUP support. Would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up such a political corpse all the way to 2022? I am not so sure.
One word - Corbyn
I fully understand that - indeed had Milliband still been Leader the DUP might not have propped the Tories up at all. I am simply suggesting that there could come a point - before 2022 - when the DUP no longer wish to be associated with this Government and would possibly welcome another election.
Ok. What sort or outcome from a GE would the DUP prefer to a Tory led government?
I am sure they would be mindful of any negative impact on their own standing in Northern Ireland that might result from continued support of this Government. The DUP is a much less natural ally for the Tories than the Ulster Unionists anyway.
Of course Blair is absolutely feted by the UK establishment (and their varied admirers like OGH) for helping keep the country safe for transnational rentiers, despots and arms peddlers for another couple of decades. The fact that he is now despised by the electorate and his 'legacy' is being annihilated by Corbyn horrifies those same people.
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
I agree with most of that, but would point out the Government's vulnerability to by election reverses if and when they occur. The loss of just 3 seats would reduce the effective majority to 7 even with DUP support. Would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up such a political corpse all the way to 2022? I am not so sure.
One word - Corbyn
I fully understand that - indeed had Milliband still been Leader the DUP might not have propped the Tories up at all. I am simply suggesting that there could come a point - before 2022 - when the DUP no longer wish to be associated with this Government and would possibly welcome another election.
Ok. What sort or outcome from a GE would the DUP prefer to a Tory led government?
I am sure they would be mindful of any negative impact on their own standing in Northern Ireland that might result from continued support of this Government.
Corbyn wanting a united Ireland is the ultimate betrayal to the DUP
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
I agree with most of that, but would point out the Government's vulnerability to by election reverses if and when they occur. The loss of just 3 seats would reduce the effective majority to 7 even with DUP support. Would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up such a political corpse all the way to 2022? I am not so sure.
The DUP really wish to prop up Corbyn instead?
It may reach the point where they can support neither.
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
I agree with most of that, but would point out the Government's vulnerability to by election reverses if and when they occur. The loss of just 3 seats would reduce the effective majority to 7 even with DUP support. Would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up such a political corpse all the way to 2022? I am not so sure.
The DUP really wish to prop up Corbyn instead?
It may reach the point where they can support neither.
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
I agree with most of that, but would point out the Government's vulnerability to by election reverses if and when they occur. The loss of just 3 seats would reduce the effective majority to 7 even with DUP support. Would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up such a political corpse all the way to 2022? I am not so sure.
One word - Corbyn
I fully understand that - indeed had Milliband still been Leader the DUP might not have propped the Tories up at all. I am simply suggesting that there could come a point - before 2022 - when the DUP no longer wish to be associated with this Government and would possibly welcome another election.
Ok. What sort or outcome from a GE would the DUP prefer to a Tory led government?
I am sure they would be mindful of any negative impact on their own standing in Northern Ireland that might result from continued support of this Government.
Corbyn wanting a united Ireland is the ultimate betrayal to the DUP
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
I agree with most of that, but would point out the Government's vulnerability to by election reverses if and when they occur. The loss of just 3 seats would reduce the effective majority to 7 even with DUP support. Would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up such a political corpse all the way to 2022? I am not so sure.
One word - Corbyn
I fully understand that - indeed had Milliband still been Leader the DUP might not have propped the Tories up at all. I am simply suggesting that there could come a point - before 2022 - when the DUP no longer wish to be associated with this Government and would possibly welcome another election.
Ok. What sort or outcome from a GE would the DUP prefer to a Tory led government?
I am sure they would be mindful of any negative impact on their own standing in Northern Ireland that might result from continued support of this Government.
With respect, that is a statement of the blindingly obvious. How about trying to answer my question. If you think there are circumstances in which the DUP would possibly welcome another election, such circumstances must entail the DUP preferring a government other than Tory led. What might such a government look like? If it's not Corbyn led what is it?
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
I agree with most of that, but would point out the Government's vulnerability to by election reverses if and when they occur. The loss of just 3 seats would reduce the effective majority to 7 even with DUP support. Would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up such a political corpse all the way to 2022? I am not so sure.
One word - Corbyn
I fully understand that - indeed had Milliband still been Leader the DUP might not have propped the Tories up at all. I am simply suggesting that there could come a point - before 2022 - when the DUP no longer wish to be associated with this Government and would possibly welcome another election.
Ok. What sort or outcome from a GE would the DUP prefer to a Tory led government?
I am sure they would be mindful of any negative impact on their own standing in Northern Ireland that might result from continued support of this Government.
Corbyn wanting a united Ireland is the ultimate betrayal to the DUP
Maybe - but it would not become Government policy
So you ignore Corbyn"s deeds and intentions if they may cause an inconvenience
Blair is of course right that with the government's current problems Labour should be much further ahead. That is especially true if Labour want to win a clear working majority.
However while Corbyn's 39.99% was below the 43.20% Blair won in 1997 and the 40.70% Blair won in 2001, Corbyn can point out that the voteshare he achieved was above the 35.2% Blair got in 2005.
As I say, Corbyn also got millions more votes than Blair in 2001, it was only the much lower turnout that year (driven by an already burgeoning disillusion with the choices - or lack of, under arch neoliberal Blair - on offer) that meant a greater vote share. Of course in 2005 Blair received a much lower vote share and number of votes than Corbyn.
Yes but of course May got more votes than Blair did in 2001 too, in fact she even got more votes than Blair did in 1997, it is voteshare and seats which is key not absolute votes.
Seats and *relative* voteshare matter in the sense of the electoral arithmetic itself under (the hopefully soon to be defunct) FPTP, but the absolute votes are very important in shaping the political landscape of the future - with nearly 13 million votes, all labour has to do is stand still and if the conservatives see a modest downturn in their own fortunes from a historically high watermark - which is very easy to see given their lack of concrete political options - then they are in power.
And the simple fact is that Blair cannot get on his high horse when millions more people voted for Corbyn than for him in two out of the three elections he was gifted (losing millions of voters between each).
Blair is totally overrated, he was in the right place at the right time and his disastrous shedding of voters between 1997 and 2005 is a big part of what led to the putrefaction of the party and the need for a phoenix-like revitalisation via Corbyn.
Yet the fact so many are still voting Tory rather than switching to Labour as happened under Blair means Labour will find it hard to win an overall majority
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
I agree with most of that, but would point out the Government's vulnerability to by election reverses if and when they occur. The loss of just 3 seats would reduce the effective majority to 7 even with DUP support. Would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up such a political corpse all the way to 2022? I am not so sure.
One word - Corbyn
I fully understand that - indeed had Milliband still been Leader the DUP might not have propped the Tories up at all. I am simply suggesting that there could come a point - before 2022 - when the DUP no longer wish to be associated with this Government and would possibly welcome another election.
Ok. What sort or outcome from a GE would the DUP prefer to a Tory led government?
I am sure they would be mindful of any negative impact on their own standing in Northern Ireland that might result from continued support of this Government.
With respect, that is a statement of the blindingly obvious. How about trying to answer my question. If you think there are circumstances in which the DUP would possibly welcome another election, such circumstances must entail the DUP preferring a government other than Tory led. What might such a government look like? If it's not Corbyn led what is it?
If the Government is obviously heading for the rocks - like the Major Govt in 1994 - 1996 - the DUP might become more interested in potential influence over a likely successor administration. An election in 2019 might produce a minority Labour Government whereas 2022 might result in an overall Labour majority. Which would the DUP prefer?
Blair is of course right that with the government's current problems Labour should be much further ahead. That is especially true if Labour want to win a clear working majority.
However while Corbyn's 39.99% was below the 43.20% Blair won in 1997 and the 40.70% Blair won in 2001, Corbyn can point out that the voteshare he achieved was above the 35.2% Blair got in 2005.
As I say, Corbyn also got millions more votes than Blair in 2001, it was only the much lower turnout that year (driven by an already burgeoning disillusion with the choices - or lack of, under arch neoliberal Blair - on offer) that meant a greater vote share. Of course in 2005 Blair received a much lower vote share and number of votes than Corbyn.
Yes but of course May got more votes than Blair did in 2001 too, in fact she even got more votes than Blair did in 1997, it is voteshare and seats which is key not absolute votes.
Seats and *relative* voteshare matter in the sense of the electoral arithmetic itself under (the hopefully soon to be defunct) FPTP, but the absolute votes are very important in shaping the political landscape of the future - with nearly 13 million votes, all labour has to do is stand still and if the conservatives see a modest downturn in their own fortunes from a historically high watermark - which is very easy to see given their lack of concrete political options - then they are in power.
And the simple fact is that Blair cannot get on his high horse when millions more people voted for Corbyn than for him in two out of the three elections he was gifted (losing millions of voters between each).
Blair is totally overrated, he was in the right place at the right time and his disastrous shedding of voters between 1997 and 2005 is a big part of what led to the putrefaction of the party and the need for a phoenix-like revitalisation via Corbyn.
Yet the fact so many are still voting Tory rather than switching to Labour as happened under Blair means Labour will find it hard to win an overall majority
But this time, how many Tory voters will hold their noses when they put a cross on the ballot paper, or abstain.....
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
I agree with most of that, but would point out the Government's vulnerability to by election reverses if and when they occur. The loss of just 3 seats would reduce the effective majority to 7 even with DUP support. Would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up such a political corpse all the way to 2022? I am not so sure.
One word - Corbyn
I fully understand that - indeed had Milliband still been Leader the DUP might not have propped the Tories up at all. I am simply suggesting that there could come a point - before 2022 - when the DUP no longer wish to be associated with this Government and would possibly welcome another election.
Ok. What sort or outcome from a GE would the DUP prefer to a Tory led government?
I am sure they would be mindful of any negative impact on their own standing in Northern Ireland that might result from continued support of this Government.
With respect, that is a statement of the blindingly obvious. How about trying to answer my question. If you think there are circumstances in which the DUP would possibly welcome another election, such circumstances must entail the DUP preferring a government other than Tory led. What might such a government look like? If it's not Corbyn led what is it?
If the Government is obviously heading for the rocks - like the Major Govt in 1994 - 1996 - the DUP might become more interested in potential influence over a likely successor administration. An election in 2019 might produce a minority Labour Government whereas 2022 might result in an overall Labour majority. Which would the DUP prefer?
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
I agree with most of that, but would point out the Government's vulnerability to by election reverses if and when they occur. The loss of just 3 seats would reduce the effective majority to 7 even with DUP support. Would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up such a political corpse all the way to 2022? I am not so sure.
One word - Corbyn
I fully understand that - indeed had Milliband still been Leader the DUP might not have propped the Tories up at all. I am simply suggesting that there could come a point - before 2022 - when the DUP no longer wish to be associated with this Government and would possibly welcome another election.
Ok. What sort or outcome from a GE would the DUP prefer to a Tory led government?
I am sure they would be mindful of any negative impact on their own standing in Northern Ireland that might result from continued support of this Government.
With respect, that is a statement of the blindingly obvious. How about trying to answer my question. If you think there are circumstances in which the DUP would possibly welcome another election, such circumstances must entail the DUP preferring a government other than Tory led. What might such a government look like? If it's not Corbyn led what is it?
If the Government is obviously heading for the rocks - like the Major Govt in 1994 - 1996 - the DUP might become more interested in potential influence over a likely successor administration. An election in 2019 might produce a minority Labour Government whereas 2022 might result in an overall Labour majority. Which would the DUP prefer?
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
I agree with most of that, but would point out the Government's vulnerability to by election reverses if and when they occur. The loss of just 3 seats would reduce the effective majority to 7 even with DUP support. Would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up such a political corpse all the way to 2022? I am not so sure.
One word - Corbyn
I fully understand that - indeed had Milliband still been Leader the DUP might not have propped the Tories up at all. I am simply suggesting that there could come a point - before 2022 - when the DUP no longer wish to be associated with this Government and would possibly welcome another election.
Ok. What sort or outcome from a GE would the DUP prefer to a Tory led government?
I am sure they would be mindful of any negative impact on their own standing in Northern Ireland that might result from continued support of this Government.
Corbyn wanting a united Ireland is the ultimate betrayal to the DUP
Maybe - but it would not become Government policy
So you ignore Corbyn"s deeds and intentions if they may cause an inconvenience
As already seen with his CND views , Corbyn does accept that on certain issues his views represent a minority in his own party. That would also apply to a united Ireland.
As for the DUP of course they will back Labour if it's in their best interests. They managed to power share with Sinn Fein because it was in their best interest. I'm not sure power sharing with Labour would be impossible for them...
As for the DUP of course they will back Labour if it's in their best interests. They managed to power share with Sinn Fein because it was in their best interest. I'm not sure power sharing with Labour would be impossible for them...
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
I agree with most of that, but would point out the Government's vulnerability to by election reverses if and when they occur. The loss of just 3 seats would reduce the effective majority to 7 even with DUP support. Would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up such a political corpse all the way to 2022? I am not so sure.
One word - Corbyn
Dr Ian Paisley sat in government with the former Commander of the IRA.
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
I agree with most of that, but would point out the Government's vulnerability to by election reverses if and when they occur. The loss of just 3 seats would reduce the effective majority to 7 even with DUP support. Would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up such a political corpse all the way to 2022? I am not so sure.
One word - Corbyn
I fully understand that - indeed had Milliband still been Leader the DUP might not have propped the Tories up at all. I am simply suggesting that there could come a point - before 2022 - when the DUP no longer wish to be associated with this Government and would possibly welcome another election.
Ok. What sort or outcome from a GE would the DUP prefer to a Tory led government?
I am sure they would be mindful of any negative impact on their own standing in Northern Ireland that might result from continued support of this Government.
Corbyn wanting a united Ireland is the ultimate betrayal to the DUP
As things stand at the moment, it is the Tories who are going, with Brexit, to make a united Ireland inevitable...
Blair is of course right that with the government's current problems Labour should be much further ahead. That is especially true if Labour want to win a clear working majority.
However while Corbyn's 39.99% was below the 43.20% Blair won in 1997 and the 40.70% Blair won in 2001, Corbyn can point out that the voteshare he achieved was above the 35.2% Blair got in 2005.
As I say, Corbyn also got millions more votes than Blair in 2001, it was only the much lower turnout that year (driven by an already burgeoning disillusion with the choices - or lack of, under arch neoliberal Blair - on offer) that meant a greater vote share. Of course in 2005 Blair received a much lower vote share and number of votes than Corbyn.
Yes but of course May got more votes than Blair did in 2001 too, in fact she even got more votes than Blair did in 1997, it is voteshare and seats which is key not absolute votes.
Seats and *relative* voteshare matter in the sense of the electoral arithmetic itself under (the hopefully soon to be defunct) FPTP, but the absolute votes are very important in shaping the political landscape of the future - with nearly 13 million votes, all labour has to do is stand still and if the conservatives see a modest downturn in their own fortunes from a historically high watermark - which is very easy to see given their lack of concrete political options - then they are in power.
And the simple fact is that Blair cannot get on his high horse when millions more people voted for Corbyn than for him in two out of the three elections he was gifted (losing millions of voters between each).
Blair is totally overrated, he was in the right place at the right time and his disastrous shedding of voters between 1997 and 2005 is a big part of what led to the putrefaction of the party and the need for a phoenix-like revitalisation via Corbyn.
Yet the fact so many are still voting Tory rather than switching to Labour as happened under Blair means Labour will find it hard to win an overall majority
But this time, how many Tory voters will hold their noses when they put a cross on the ballot paper, or abstain.....
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
I agree with most of that, but would point out the Government's vulnerability to by election reverses if and when they occur. The loss of just 3 seats would reduce the effective majority to 7 even with DUP support. Would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up such a political corpse all the way to 2022? I am not so sure.
One word - Corbyn
I fully understand that - indeed had Milliband still been Leader the DUP might not have propped the Tories up at all. I am simply suggesting that there could come a point - before 2022 - when the DUP no longer wish to be associated with this Government and would possibly welcome another election.
Ok. What sort or outcome from a GE would the DUP prefer to a Tory led government?
I am sure they would be mindful of any negative impact on their own standing in Northern Ireland that might result from continued support of this Government.
Corbyn wanting a united Ireland is the ultimate betrayal to the DUP
As things stand at the moment, it is the Tories who are going, with Brexit, are making a united Ireland inevitable...
Of course Blair is absolutely feted by the UK establishment (and their varied admirers like OGH) for helping keep the country safe for transnational rentiers, despots and arms peddlers for another couple of decades. The fact that he is now despised by the electorate and his 'legacy' is being annihilated by Corbyn horrifies those same people.
I wouldn't put it in those terms, but I left the Labour party in 2004 after a decade of membership, disgusted by two issues. These were the Iraq war and the the NHS marketisation.
There was a complete disconnect between what Blair and his acolytes wanted and what the ordinary party members and voters wanted. It wasn't just the policy, it was the mendacity of it all.
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
I agree with most of that, but would point out the Government's vulnerability to by election reverses if and when they occur. The loss of just 3 seats would reduce the effective majority to 7 even with DUP support. Would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up such a political corpse all the way to 2022? I am not so sure.
One word - Corbyn
I fully understand that - indeed had Milliband still been Leader the DUP might not have propped the Tories up at all. I am simply suggesting that there could come a point - before 2022 - when the DUP no longer wish to be associated with this Government and would possibly welcome another election.
Ok. What sort or outcome from a GE would the DUP prefer to a Tory led government?
I am sure they would be mindful of any negative impact on their own standing in Northern Ireland that might result from continued support of this Government.
Corbyn wanting a united Ireland is the ultimate betrayal to the DUP
As things stand at the moment, it is the Tories who are going, with Brexit, are making a united Ireland inevitable...
So is that it on the paradise papers? Talk about all fart and no follow through! I supposed we should have guessed when they led with queen pays extra tax but scandal she has £3k indirectly invested in bright house. A years work and that's it?
Blair is of course right that with the government's current problems Labour should be much further ahead. That is especially true if Labour want to win a clear working majority.
However while Corbyn's 39.99% was below the 43.20% Blair won in 1997 and the 40.70% Blair won in 2001, Corbyn can point out that the voteshare he achieved was above the 35.2% Blair got in 2005.
As I say, Corbyn also got millions more votes than Blair in 2001, it was only the much lower turnout that year (driven by an already burgeoning disillusion with the choices - or lack of, under arch neoliberal Blair - on offer) that meant a greater vote share. Of course in 2005 Blair received a much lower vote share and number of votes than Corbyn.
Yes but of course May got more votes than Blair did in 2001 too, in fact she even got more votes than Blair did in 1997, it is voteshare and seats which is key not absolute votes.
Seats and *relative* voteshare matter in the sense of the electoral arithmetic itself under (the hopefully soon to be defunct) FPTP, but the absolute votes are very important in shaping the political landscape of the future - with nearly 13 million votes, all labour has to do is stand still and if the conservatives see a modest downturn in their own fortunes from a historically high watermark - which is very easy to see given their lack of concrete political options - then they are in power.
And the simple fact is that Blair cannot get on his high horse when millions more people voted for Corbyn than for him in two out of the three elections he was gifted (losing millions of voters between each).
Blair is totally overrated, he was in the right place at the right time and his disastrous shedding of voters between 1997 and 2005 is a big part of what led to the putrefaction of the party and the need for a phoenix-like revitalisation via Corbyn.
Yet the fact so many are still voting Tory rather than switching to Labour as happened under Blair means Labour will find it hard to win an overall majority
But this time, how many Tory voters will hold their noses when they put a cross on the ballot paper, or abstain.....
Given the alternative is Corbyn very few
And the stench from the conservative front bench is a sweet as any rose....
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
I agree with most of that, but would point out the Government's vulnerability to by election reverses if and when they occur. The loss of just 3 seats would reduce the effective majority to 7 even with DUP support. Would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up such a political corpse all the way to 2022? I am not so sure.
One word - Corbyn
I fully understand that - indeed had Milliband still been Leader the DUP might not have propped the Tories up at all. I am simply suggesting that there could come a point - before 2022 - when the DUP no longer wish to be associated with this Government and would possibly welcome another election.
Ok. What sort or outcome from a GE would the DUP prefer to a Tory led government?
I am sure they would be mindful of any negative impact on their own standing in Northern Ireland that might result from continued support of this Government.
Corbyn wanting a united Ireland is the ultimate betrayal to the DUP
As things stand at the moment, it is the Tories who are going, with Brexit, are making a united Ireland inevitable...
DUP reject any idea of a United Ireland
They’d happily support a united Ireland within the UK (de jure or de facto). That’s why they support Irexit.
Got to laugh at BBC News Paper Review. After covering the government's woes in detail it moves on to the Sunday Express. However, instead of comments on the front page splash on potentially positive impact of Brexit on our fishing industry instead the commentators focus on a couple of sentences on another subject. Lets fit the coverage to the narrative eh BBC.
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
I agree with most of that, but would point out the Government's vulnerability to by election reverses if and when they occur. The loss of just 3 seats would reduce the effective majority to 7 even with DUP support. Would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up such a political corpse all the way to 2022? I am not so sure.
One word - Corbyn
I fully understand that - indeed had Milliband still been Leader the DUP might not have propped the Tories up at all. I am simply suggesting that there could come a point - before 2022 - when the DUP no longer wish to be associated with this Government and would possibly welcome another election.
Ok. What sort or outcome from a GE would the DUP prefer to a Tory led government?
I am sure they would be mindful of any negative impact on their own standing in Northern Ireland that might result from continued support of this Government.
Corbyn wanting a united Ireland is the ultimate betrayal to the DUP
As things stand at the moment, it is the Tories who are going, with Brexit, are making a united Ireland inevitable...
DUP reject any idea of a United Ireland
They’d happily support a united Ireland within the UK (de jure or de facto). That’s why they support Irexit.
Ireland leaving the EU is their best hope in the long term
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
I agree with most of that, but would point out the Government's vulnerability to by election reverses if and when they occur. The loss of just 3 seats would reduce the effective majority to 7 even with DUP support. Would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up such a political corpse all the way to 2022? I am not so sure.
One word - Corbyn
I fully understand that - indeed had Milliband still been Leader the DUP might not have propped the Tories up at all. I am simply suggesting that there could come a point - before 2022 - when the DUP no longer wish to be associated with this Government and would possibly welcome another election.
Ok. What sort or outcome from a GE would the DUP prefer to a Tory led government?
I am sure they would be mindful of any negative impact on their own standing in Northern Ireland that might result from continued support of this Government.
Corbyn wanting a united Ireland is the ultimate betrayal to the DUP
As things stand at the moment, it is the Tories who are going, with Brexit, are making a united Ireland inevitable...
DUP reject any idea of a United Ireland
They’d happily support a united Ireland within the UK (de jure or de facto). That’s why they support Irexit.
Ireland leaving the EU is their best hope in the long term
The Irish, unlike the Brits, know which side of the bread is buttered, and it isn't outside the EU....
It would also limit the amount of low skilled immigration, as a lot of that is cash in hand and/or turning up without a job offer.
Requiring a job offer just creates a whole sector of middlemen who provide the job offer then contract with the final employer, instead of doing the sensible thing and letting the person who can do a job talk to the person who wants somebody to do the job.
Depends on your view. TM is attempting to balance the two sides of an argument, upsetting one and not the other. Hence the polls staying static
There isn't an election due next week, next month or even new year. We are probably five months into a 59-month parliament so there's a Niagara Falls amount of water to flow under the metaphorical bridge.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
I agree with most of that, but would point out the Government's vulnerability to by election reverses if and when they occur. The loss of just 3 seats would reduce the effective majority to 7 even with DUP support. Would the DUP really wish to be seen to be propping up such a political corpse all the way to 2022? I am not so sure.
One word - Corbyn
I fully understand that - indeed had Milliband still been Leader the DUP might not have propped the Tories up at all. I am simply suggesting that there could come a point - before 2022 - when the DUP no longer wish to be associated with this Government and would possibly welcome another election.
If Milliband, David or Ed been in charge at the General, May would have won a historic majority, both are seen by the electorate as being Blair mini me's....
Comments
Laters.
However while Corbyn's 39.99% was below the 43.20% Blair won in 1997 and the 40.70% Blair won in 2001, Corbyn can point out that the voteshare he achieved was above the 35.2% Blair got in 2005.
With the withdrawal bill returning to the Commons on Tuesday, a cross-party group who oppose a hard Brexit and are co-operating on tactics say they believe they have the numbers to defeat the government if they are denied such a vote.
While the critical amendments and closest votes are not expected to be taken until next month, Tories who oppose a hard Brexit insist there is no softening of their position and that they are biding their time ready to strike before Christmas.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/11/theresa-may-faces-defeat-mp-demanding-vote-on-brexit-deal
Had this forum existed twenty years or more ago, I wonder how it would have been on election night 1997. Would the last few Conservatives have retreated into the darkness as the reality of their trouncing became clear ? Alas, we'll never know though we may find out on June 9th 2022 but that's an eternity away.
Tony Blair's triumph came from persuading millions of former Conservative and thousands of former Lib Dem voters that the Labour Party he led was a non-socialist party of the centre or centre-left and that the totemic aspects of the Thatcher Revolution would be preserved.
Even though the 1997-2001 Government was unremarkable in many aspects, Labour won a second landslide in an election in which by some measures the Conservatives did worse than 1997 and had so calmed the electorate that a large number saw no point in voting.
We will never know what a second Blair term might have been like as it was overtaken by the events of 11/9/01 which in their way continue to resonate long after their happening. The repercussions of that unforeseeable event have also afflicted Blair and trashed his reputation.
Yet like his contemporaries Clinton and Schroeder, I look back at the Blair years and struggle to see their impact. He had a mandate to be evolutionary and even revolutionary but spent so long reassuring post-Thatcherite Britain her revolution was safe in his hands he had nothing to offer beyond technocratic competent management.
Corbyn is the antidote to centrism if the latter is simply management of the existing status quo but if the mood is for change centrism is never going to attract support. Both 1945 and 1979 were huge repudiations of centrism - people voted in large numbers for change. It's not quite like that now - those wanting change are balanced by those wanting the status quo.
The mood for change is exuberant but multi-faceted and multi-layered. Corbyn can be all things to all people (just as LEAVE was arguably). A less polarising figure might not be able to harness the same energy and the corollary is the polarising figure props up the status quo as the desire for change currently is balanced by a fear of that change.
In both 1945 and 1979 the desire for change was overwhelming even if the dimensions of that change were neither fully explained not fully understood.
1 - The Referendum
2 - Approving the triggering of Article 50
Anything else is just grand-standing.
A 3% Labour lead represents a swing of 2.7% in its favour since last June and would imply 35 gains from the Tories. In addition , Labour is well placed to pick up circa 20 seats from the SNP and probably Arfon from Plaid. Overall that would leave Labour just short of 320 seats.
There is also a cross-party delusion of omnipotence about the place. May cannot legislate for the precise date of brexit, and her opponents cannot outlaw a no-deal brexit. These matters are not in our power, and we must look to Europe like the Ruritanian parliament debating whether to amend or revoke the laws of thermodynamics.
[1] It’s not enough to simply repeal the FTPA. That act abolished the royal prerogative to dissolve parliament, and once gone, an abolished royal prerogative cannot be revived.
If you'd had asked us then what would be going down politically now the consensus would be 'Well, our crap PM Ed Miliband will be meeting Juppe and HRC at a G7 where they will probably just talk about global warming."
He has driven the cons to a similarly extreme position, resulting in a polarisation driven by Brexit.
I suspect that most people, whose political philosophy probably extends to just wanting life to go on as normal, are not represented in politics any more. But they are not conscious of it yet. Most people don't want Liam Fox's red blooded delusions of anglo american capitalism any more than they want Corbyn's venuzuela style redistribution.
Since the June election, things haven't gone well for May and her Government - I say that as an unfriendly critic, I suspect even friendlier critics would concede the point.
That doesn't matter for now - what will matter is the drip-drip of bad news stories, ministerial gaffes and the like. As UKPR noted, most people are probably not taking much notice of matters political for now - that will change in the months ahead. Let's see where we are this time next year as a start.
Glad we got that sorted out
And the simple fact is that Blair cannot get on his high horse when millions more people voted for Corbyn than for him in two out of the three elections he was gifted (losing millions of voters between each).
Blair is totally overrated, he was in the right place at the right time and his disastrous shedding of voters between 1997 and 2005 is a big part of what led to the putrefaction of the party and the need for a phoenix-like revitalisation via Corbyn.
The only question is the nature of what they are plotting.
As for the DUP of course they will back Labour if it's in their best interests. They managed to power share with Sinn Fein because it was in their best interest. I'm not sure power sharing with Labour would be impossible for them...
There was a complete disconnect between what Blair and his acolytes wanted and what the ordinary party members and voters wanted. It wasn't just the policy, it was the mendacity of it all.
"Nigel lied about Brexit to save our affair" sounds much more interesting. He was lying about everything else so a difficult habit to break.
That we are Brexiting because of those three crooks is beyond invention
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5073475/Political-aide-Nigel-Farage-comes-clean-affair.html