I really don't buy the Sanders would have won the rustbelt stuff. He would have lost votes elsewhere for a start because, as someone said earlier, Trump would have called him 'Commie Bernie' constantly.
But, and this is the big but, Trump also tapped into values stuff, and as Matthew "Revolt on the Right" Goodwin repeatedly points out, this is the big deal in modern times. People especially white voters identified with Trump as someone who understood their values and culture concerns.
The Dems and identity politics have run out of steam - they need a massive, wholesale rethink.
Except the Republicans have lost the popular vote 6 out of the last 7 Presidential elections.
I think it is entirely possible the Trump loses the popular vote again by a wider margin in 2020 but still wins the electoral college.
At some point in the future that becomes unsustainable.
The challenge is for their voters to move out of safe states and move to swing states.
If Trump wins again then I suspect California seceding is on the table.
Pretty solid Republican hegemony in the remaining 49 if they do.
I am beginning to wonder if we will actually leave.
Consider:
1) The talks are going nowhere - we are more than a quarter of the way through the A50 period and agreement has not yet been reached on even the three "first stage" topics, let alone the much more complex transition arrangements; 2) The government has all but conceded that it cannot get the repeal bill through Parliament in its current form and seems to have no idea what to do next; 3) Work has not yet started on the many new systems, agencies and procedures (immigration, customs, air safety etc etc etc) that would be required in the case of a hard exit. The chances of any of this work being complete by March 2019 are zero.
Leaving is therefore not practically possible in the time available. The politics have not yet caught up with the realities of the situation.
My prediction FWIW:
1. December will see agreement on moving to the next stage, on the basis that Britain accepts that the final bill will be substantially more than £20 bn and the EU27 agree that discussion in principle of the transition period is now urgent. The rights of foreign citizens issue will be largely settled and some sort of Irish fudge will be envisaged. People will generally see all this as significant progress and the pressure on May will ease for a while.
2. Details will prove really hard, and we'll have a more serious crunch around the middle of 2018. Best case outcome could be agreement in principle on both £££s and transition and on extending the A50 process by one year ("stopping the clock"). Worst case would be UK government collapse and suspension of negotiations while that's resolved.
It is very hard to see May surviving the compromises and retreats that you (correctly) envisage. Political crisis must be odds on I think.
Not even clear May can get the Great Repeal Bill through at the moment. So, yes, crisis is looming I think.
It's a reaction to the slow but steady Islamification of Europe and increase in third world immigration and associated problems. The native populations clearly don't want it and desire to retain some land to call their own.
The only people to even acknowledge let alone pledge to do something about it is the far-right, so of course people are going to vote for them.
Far right Fascism has rather more in common with Islamism than either of them might care to admit. Using the far right to “cure” the problems associated with Islamification is as bad as the “disease”.
There are plenty of people who have concerns about how well or not Islamic immigrants integrate in Europe or with mass immigration but who do not think that lurching towards fascism or some watered down version of it is the answer. If the new Austrian Chancellor seriously wants to do something about these sorts of issues then he needs to put together a coalition of people who do not think that fascism is the answer.
So the answer to changing what is going on is to put together a coalition of the people who won't change anything.
The mainstream politicians throughout the Western world would rather their countries turned Islamic than be accused of racism or fascism. The voters in Austria have different ideas.
No - my answer is to put together a coalition of people who will change things but without resorting to fascism.
The problem is that any party that wants to do anything regarding immigration is called a fascist, so it's literally impossible for a party to "not be fascist" and deal with this issue.
One of the many arguments Douglas Murray makes in his "Death of Europe" book. Very interesting (and deeply challenging) read for liberals.
I really don't buy the Sanders would have won the rustbelt stuff. He would have lost votes elsewhere for a start because, as someone said earlier, Trump would have called him 'Commie Bernie' constantly.
But, and this is the big but, Trump also tapped into values stuff, and as Matthew "Revolt on the Right" Goodwin repeatedly points out, this is the big deal in modern times. People especially white voters identified with Trump as someone who understood their values and culture concerns.
The Dems and identity politics have run out of steam - they need a massive, wholesale rethink.
Except the Republicans have lost the popular vote 6 out of the last 7 Presidential elections.
I think it is entirely possible the Trump loses the popular vote again by a wider margin in 2020 but still wins the electoral college.
At some point in the future that becomes unsustainable.
The challenge is for their voters to move out of safe states and move to swing states.
If Trump wins again then I suspect California seceding is on the table.
Pretty solid Republican hegemony in the remaining 49 if they do.
A secession crisis in the US would get very ugly.
Indeed. Silicon Valley lost to a separate California. Wow, talk about crisis.
I really don't buy the Sanders would have won the rustbelt stuff. He would have lost votes elsewhere for a start because, as someone said earlier, Trump would have called him 'Commie Bernie' constantly.
But, and this is the big but, Trump also tapped into values stuff, and as Matthew "Revolt on the Right" Goodwin repeatedly points out, this is the big deal in modern times. People especially white voters identified with Trump as someone who understood their values and culture concerns.
The Dems and identity politics have run out of steam - they need a massive, wholesale rethink.
Except the Republicans have lost the popular vote 6 out of the last 7 Presidential elections.
I think it is entirely possible the Trump loses the popular vote again by a wider margin in 2020 but still wins the electoral college.
At some point in the future that becomes unsustainable.
The challenge is for their voters to move out of safe states and move to swing states.
If Trump wins again then I suspect California seceding is on the table.
Pretty solid Republican hegemony in the remaining 49 if they do.
It's a reaction to the slow but steady Islamification of Europe and increase in third world immigration and associated problems. The native populations clearly don't want it and desire to retain some land to call their own.
The only people to even acknowledge let alone pledge to do something about it is the far-right, so of course people are going to vote for them.
Far right Fascism has rather more in common with Islamism than either of them might care to admit. Using the far right to “cure” the problems associated with Islamification is as bad as the “disease”.
There are plenty of people who have concerns about how well or not Islamic immigrants integrate in Europe or with mass immigration but who do not think that lurching towards fascism or some watered down version of it is the answer. If the new Austrian Chancellor seriously wants to do something about these sorts of issues then he needs to put together a coalition of people who do not think that fascism is the answer.
So the answer to changing what is going on is to put together a coalition of the people who won't change anything.
The mainstream politicians throughout the Western world would rather their countries turned Islamic than be accused of racism or fascism. The voters in Austria have different ideas.
Previous Austrian iterations of racism and fascism don't seem to have been particularly happy experiences.
Oh right well then I guess the Austrians will just have to put up with turning Islamic then.
They don't want to allow liberals the opportunity to make ludicrous comparisons which is obviously the most important thing.
"Turning Islamic" is a bit hyperbolic isn't it? Muslims make up a 7% minority of Austrians.
Reiteration, but I do think any talk of secession in the US is wildly overblown. Trump's very divisive but term limits means he won't be around for a huge length of time.
It's a reaction to the slow but steady Islamification of Europe and increase in third world immigration and associated problems. The native populations clearly don't want it and desire to retain some land to call their own.
The only people to even acknowledge let alone pledge to do something about it is the far-right, so of course people are going to vote for them.
Far right Fascism has rather more in common with Islamism than either of them might care to admit. Using the far right to “cure” the problems associated with Islamification is as bad as the “disease”.
There are plenty of people who have concerns about how well or not Islamic immigrants integrate in Europe or with mass immigration but who do not think that lurching towards fascism or some watered down version of it is the answer. If the new Austrian Chancellor seriously wants to do something about these sorts of issues then he needs to put together a coalition of people who do not think that fascism is the answer.
So the answer to changing what is going on is to put together a coalition of the people who won't change anything.
The mainstream politicians throughout the Western world would rather their countries turned Islamic than be accused of racism or fascism. The voters in Austria have different ideas.
No - my answer is to put together a coalition of people who will change things but without resorting to fascism.
The problem is that any party that wants to do anything regarding immigration is called a fascist, so it's literally impossible for a party to "not be fascist" and deal with this issue.
Oh for God’s sake! The answer is to grow a pair and have some political courage.
Look at Corbyn. He’s been called all sorts of names and has maintained his calm, reasonable manner and when people looked at his policies they did not appear to be the equivalent of Pol Pot’s manifesto.
It can be done. I am pretty sure I could come up with a range of measures (indeed I remember listing some here in early 2015 at the time of the Charlie Hebdo assassinations) to address some of these issues, which would not be fascist, could not be reasonably called fascist and which might have a chance of getting support, including from immigrants themselves.
If you’re in politics, you make the arguments and try to change the terms of debate. Not cower in a corner because you’re afraid someone might call you names.
It is very hard to see May surviving the compromises and retreats that you (correctly) envisage. Political crisis must be odds on I think.
May is not stupid and she will be planning her moves during the crisis phase very carefully. It will be very interesting to see how it all plays out.
I would have thought the first stage of the crisis will result in May being forced out by the Brexiteers. Her performance to date does not suggest any coherent forward planning - quite the opposite.
Miss Cyclefree, the left's better at using language and getting a free pass when it comes to marching in front of banners and photos associated with genocide (Stalin, for example).
It's only a few years ago authorities were turning a blind eye or even colluding in the rape of WWC girls and boys because doing otherwise and actually investigating rape claims would be deemed 'culturally insensitive'. There's a bloody huge way to go and the mainstream of politics needs to address concerns and defend British values.
Instead, we read of police not attending poppy events which is causing their cancellation, but entirely able to attend Al-Quds marching through London.
The Conservatives are fixated on both leaving the EU and internal bloodletting, whilst the Official Opposition of Labour is led by a self-declared friend of Hamas and Hezbollah.
There's great potential for the far right to rise. It's a disturbing situation, and it may well worsen.
May is not stupid and she will be planning her moves during the crisis phase very carefully. It will be very interesting to see how it all plays out.
Those who have seen Mrs May privately in recent weeks describe her as stricken and stunned. On one occasion she sat in silence for almost ten minutes while the visitor she had invited to see her waited for her to lead the conversation. He left the meeting deciding she no longer wanted to be prime minister. The internal contradiction of her position must be taking an emotional as well as a political toll. According to reports in the German press, she appeared “tormented” at her dinner with Jean-Claude Juncker last week.
May is not stupid and she will be planning her moves during the crisis phase very carefully. It will be very interesting to see how it all plays out.
Those who have seen Mrs May privately in recent weeks describe her as stricken and stunned. On one occasion she sat in silence for almost ten minutes while the visitor she had invited to see her waited for her to lead the conversation. He left the meeting deciding she no longer wanted to be prime minister. The internal contradiction of her position must be taking an emotional as well as a political toll. According to reports in the German press, she appeared “tormented” at her dinner with Jean-Claude Juncker last week.
Far right Fascism has rather more in common with Islamism than either of them might care to admit. Using the far right to “cure” the problems associated with Islamification is as bad as the “disease”.
Austrian Chancellor seriously wants to do something about these sorts of issues then he needs to put together a coalition of people who do not think that fascism is the answer.
So the answer to changing what is going on is to put together a coalition of the people who won't change anything.
The mainstream politicians throughout the Western world would rather their countries turned Islamic than be accused of racism or fascism. The voters in Austria have different ideas.
No - my answer is to put together a coalition of people who will change things but without resorting to fascism.
The problem is that any party that wants to do anything regarding immigration is called a fascist, so it's literally impossible for a party to "not be fascist" and deal with this issue.
Oh for God’s sake! The answer is to grow a pair and have some political courage.
Look at Corbyn. He’s been called all sorts of names and has maintained his calm, reasonable manner and when people looked at his policies they did not appear to be the equivalent of Pol Pot’s manifesto.
It can be done. I am pretty sure I could come up with a range of measures (indeed I remember listing some here in early 2015 at the time of the Charlie Hebdo assassinations) to address some of these issues, which would not be fascist, could not be reasonably called fascist and which might have a chance of getting support, including from immigrants themselves.
If you’re in politics, you make the arguments and try to change the terms of debate. Not cower in a corner because you’re afraid someone might call you names.
Yes I agree it can and should be done and the politicians should get on with it.
My point was that if/when it is done they be called nazis/fascist by the media, establishment and the rest of the political class.
You can see that in action on here regarding Austria now that they have finally elected a government who is serious in actually tackling the issue.
Also look at the massive outrage at Trump when he tried to limit Islamic immigration to the US.
Miss Cyclefree, the left's better at using language and getting a free pass when it comes to marching in front of banners and photos associated with genocide (Stalin, for example).
It's only a few years ago authorities were turning a blind eye or even colluding in the rape of WWC girls and boys because doing otherwise and actually investigating rape claims would be deemed 'culturally insensitive'. There's a bloody huge way to go and the mainstream of politics needs to address concerns and defend British values.
Instead, we read of police not attending poppy events which is causing their cancellation, but entirely able to attend Al-Quds marching through London.
The Conservatives are fixated on both leaving the EU and internal bloodletting, whilst the Official Opposition of Labour is led by a self-declared friend of Hamas and Hezbollah.
There's great potential for the far right to rise. It's a disturbing situation, and it may well worsen.
Agreed. All the more reason for liberals to fight for the values they claim to hold dear.
One cynical definition of a liberal is of someone who “won’t even support his own side in an argument”.
Well, I’m not that kind of a liberal and, not that I can do much or, indeed, anything at all, I’m damn well not going to allow Islamism or Fascism or Marxism, come to that, damage and degrade what I hold dear and what I would like to pass onto my children.
It's a reaction to the slow but steady Islamification of Europe and increase in third world immigration and associated problems. The native populations clearly don't want it and desire to retain some land to call their own.
The only people to even acknowledge let alone pledge to do something about it is the far-right, so of course people are going to vote for them.
Far right Fascism has rather more in common with Islamism than either of them might care to admit. Using the far right to “cure” the problems associated with Islamification is as bad as the “disease”.
There are plenty of people who have concerns about how well or not Islamic immigrants integrate in Europe or with mass immigration but who do not think that lurching towards fascism or some watered down version of it is the answer. If the new Austrian Chancellor seriously wants to do something about these sorts of issues then he needs to put together a coalition of people who do not think that fascism is the answer.
So the answer to changing what is going on is to put together a coalition of the people who won't change anything.
The mainstream politicians throughout the Western world would rather their countries turned Islamic than be accused of racism or fascism. The voters in Austria have different ideas.
Previous Austrian iterations of racism and fascism don't seem to have been particularly happy experiences.
Oh right well then I guess the Austrians will just have to put up with turning Islamic then.
They don't want to allow liberals the opportunity to make ludicrous comparisons which is obviously the most important thing.
"Turning Islamic" is a bit hyperbolic isn't it? Muslims make up a 7% minority of Austrians.
Look at the average age and birth rates.
Islam in Austria has gone from 2% of the population in 1991 to 8% in 2016. It has gone up 400% in 25 years.
I stick by my claim that allowed to continue like this then yes Austria will "turn Islamic".
May is not stupid and she will be planning her moves during the crisis phase very carefully. It will be very interesting to see how it all plays out.
Those who have seen Mrs May privately in recent weeks describe her as stricken and stunned. On one occasion she sat in silence for almost ten minutes while the visitor she had invited to see her waited for her to lead the conversation. He left the meeting deciding she no longer wanted to be prime minister. The internal contradiction of her position must be taking an emotional as well as a political toll. According to reports in the German press, she appeared “tormented” at her dinner with Jean-Claude Juncker last week.
I really don't buy the Sanders would have won the rustbelt stuff. He would have lost votes elsewhere for a start because, as someone said earlier, Trump would have called him 'Commie Bernie' constantly.
But, and this is the big but, Trump also tapped into values stuff, and as Matthew "Revolt on the Right" Goodwin repeatedly points out, this is the big deal in modern times. People especially white voters identified with Trump as someone who understood their values and culture concerns.
The Dems and identity politics have run out of steam - they need a massive, wholesale rethink.
Except the Republicans have lost the popular vote 6 out of the last 7 Presidential elections.
I think it is entirely possible the Trump loses the popular vote again by a wider margin in 2020 but still wins the electoral college.
At some point in the future that becomes unsustainable.
The challenge is for their voters to move out of safe states and move to swing states.
Popular vote doesn't matter much in a federation of States, with substantial devolved power.
Only about a dozen States are rock solid for the Democrats, compared to about 20 States that are solid for the Republicans.
Mr. F, but worth noting (may've changed in 2017, not sure) US states have changed hands a lot more over the decades than constituencies (ie fewer long term safe states than safe seats).
It's a load of bollocks. The subject and content of university courses is a matter of legitimate public debate, especially when they are dealing with a matter of huge current public importance. The letter is hardly the stuff of Torquemada. Why shouldn't university lecturers be subject to some public scrutiny?
Not sure why Guido is still going so hard after O'mara other than he already had the info lined up. He's already resigned from the committee and this seems like the info Guido woukd have unleashed has he not resigned, as proof he has not changed. Being an arse is no reason to resign as an MP after all.
"We must keep our unity regardless of the direction of the talks," Mr Tusk said. "The EU will be able to rise to every scenario as long as we are not divided."
"If we fail it then the negotiations will end in our defeat," he told MEPs.
So now we know. The EU see the negotiations as a battle to be won or lost.
He's an idiot for saying that out loud. I noted yesterday that he would probably get the benefit of the doubt precisely because he's a Labour MP. He is doing his best to ensure that he won't.
Not sure why Guido is still going so hard after O'mara other than he already had the info lined up. He's already resigned from the committee and this seems like the info Guido woukd have unleashed has he not resigned, as proof he has not changed. Being an arse is no reason to resign as an MP after all.
An MP resigning for being an arse would see us with by-elections aplenty though!
O'Mara may be a tool but surely Harry Cole's summary is undermined by the words quoted.
Not sure. He does on effect say it is unlikely a tory could go on the journey to appropriate views, implicitly suggesting one who claims it perhaps should not be believed, but he doesn't rule it our as a possibility. A bit unnecessary to open the question though, in a way quite easy to summarise as Cole had, basically 'because we're the good guys we get more leeway', which in fairness is a human thing not a uniquely labour thing.
He's an idiot for saying that out loud. I noted yesterday that he would probably get the benefit of the doubt precisely because he's a Labour MP. He is doing his best to ensure that he won't.
Always nice for someone to help us test where the line is.
Not sure why Guido is still going so hard after O'mara other than he already had the info lined up. He's already resigned from the committee and this seems like the info Guido woukd have unleashed has he not resigned, as proof he has not changed. Being an arse is no reason to resign as an MP after all.
An MP resigning for being an arse would see us with by-elections aplenty though!
The general standard of MPs from top to bottom does appear to be incredibly poor at the moment.
O'Mara may be a tool but surely Harry Cole's summary is undermined by the words quoted.
O'Mara's digging a massive hole for himself IMO. He says he's been on a journey and wants to educate people. Perhaps he might want to reflect on the fact that he was doing f'all education until he was caught out.
If he had come out after he was elected (and preferably before), and said: "Look, when I was younger I was a bit of an asshat. I said some awful things online that I sincerely regret, and would like to use my voice in parliament to try to encourage others not to be asshats," then that would be brilliant.
Saying it after you are caught out makes it seem rather fake.
Not sure why Guido is still going so hard after O'mara other than he already had the info lined up. He's already resigned from the committee and this seems like the info Guido woukd have unleashed has he not resigned, as proof he has not changed. Being an arse is no reason to resign as an MP after all.
I think the reason to continue to go after him is because he is a really nasty piece of work and we have seen countless other examples of Labour letting people get away with truly obnoxious behaviour.
The crocodile tears at last night's PLP meeting mean nothing and were clearly a staged attempt to draw a line under the matter. However the re-emergence of the nightclub incident today show that it was all fake.
He won't resign as MP - and we don't have a recall option. However the whip should be permanently withdrawn and he should be banned from standing for Labour again.
Corbyn won't do that, of course. He would demand it if it was a baby-eating Tory who behaved in the same way. But his double-standards know no limits.
"We must keep our unity regardless of the direction of the talks," Mr Tusk said. "The EU will be able to rise to every scenario as long as we are not divided."
"If we fail it then the negotiations will end in our defeat," he told MEPs.
So now we know. The EU see the negotiations as a battle to be won or lost.
I am beginning to wonder if we will actually leave.
Consider:
1) The talks are going nowhere - we are more than a quarter of the way through the A50 period and agreement has not yet been reached on even the three "first stage" topics, let alone the much more complex transition arrangements; 2) The government has all but conceded that it cannot get the repeal bill through Parliament in its current form and seems to have no idea what to do next; 3) Work has not yet started on the many new systems, agencies and procedures (immigration, customs, air safety etc etc etc) that would be required in the case of a hard exit. The chances of any of this work being complete by March 2019 are zero.
Leaving is therefore not practically possible in the time available. The politics have not yet caught up with the realities of the situation.
My prediction FWIW:
1. December will see agreement on moving to the next stage, on the basis that Britain accepts that the final bill will be substantially more than £20 bn and the EU27 agree that discussion in principle of the transition period is now urgent. The rights of foreign citizens issue will be largely settled and some sort of Irish fudge will be envisaged. People will generally see all this as significant progress and the pressure on May will ease for a while.
2. Details will prove really hard, and we'll have a more serious crunch around the middle of 2018. Best case outcome could be agreement in principle on both £££s and transition and on extending the A50 process by one year ("stopping the clock"). Worst case would be UK government collapse and suspension of negotiations while that's resolved.
It is very hard to see May surviving the compromises and retreats that you (correctly) envisage. Political crisis must be odds on I think.
Not even clear May can get the Great Repeal Bill through at the moment. So, yes, crisis is looming I think.
Maybe that's her strategy; just let everything twist in the wind until it's too late and even the thickest fucking leaver (I'm talking C4 vox pop on the streets of West Yorkshire levels) realises Brexit is impossible.
Meanwhile, some actual news is occurring (this is the start of a twitter thread). Out of deference to Mike, I won't comment directly and suggest others don't either:
I really don't buy the Sanders would have won the rustbelt stuff. He would have lost votes elsewhere for a start because, as someone said earlier, Trump would have called him 'Commie Bernie' constantly.
But, and this is the big but, Trump also tapped into values stuff, and as Matthew "Revolt on the Right" Goodwin repeatedly points out, this is the big deal in modern times. People especially white voters identified with Trump as someone who understood their values and culture concerns.
The Dems and identity politics have run out of steam - they need a massive, wholesale rethink.
Trump won because of immigration and anti globalisation much as Brexit did over here. Sanders could afford to lose a few rich centrist votes in California and New York if he won the rustbelt under the Electoral College system.
To win next time in the rustbelt swing states that voted for Trump the Democrats need a candidate who is more concerned about immigration and globalisation than Hillary was to neutralise that issue and can then go on an anti big business, anti austerity, anti inequality, anti Wall Street line ie Sanders.
In the same way here Corbyn won Leave areas by neutralising Brexit by agreeing to leave the single market to end free movement and that allowed him to go on an anti austerity, anti big business, anti inequality line which won over the poor and lower middle class.
Question. If there's a by-election in Hallam soon,
1. how good are the Lib Dems' prospects of retaking it? 2. Would Clegg have another go? 3. If he did, would it aid or hinder the Lib Dem cause?
(My guesses - strongish, no, doesn't matter but probably hinder if only because despite any local popularity it'd be offset by his effect on drawing in Lab activists)
Question. If there's a by-election in Hallam soon,
1. how good are the Lib Dems' prospects of retaking it? 2. Would Clegg have another go? 3. If he did, would it aid or hinder the Lib Dem cause?
(My guesses - strongish, no, doesn't matter but probably hinder if only because despite any local popularity it'd be offset by his effect on drawing in Lab activists)
Not assuming it would happen at all, id guess the answers would be not great, no and hinder. Labour are on the up and parties seem to do fine when a member resigns.
Completely wrong. Sanders always had a bigger lead over Trump than Hillary did precisely because his attacks on Wall Street and big corporations resonated and on economics he is more FDR or LBJ than Karl Marx. Sanders is also less relaxed about immigration than Hillary and surprisingly pro gun. He is ideal for the rustbelt.
To win next time the Democrats just need to win Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (which even Gore and Kerry won and where Sanders won 2/3 of the primaries)and hold the Hillary states, if Sanders did that Trump could win both Florida and Ohio and still lose.
Trump never meaningfully attacked Sanders; he never had to. I agree the polling head-to-heads were poor for Trump but I think that would have changed once he went negative. I'm not sure you can read directly over from the primaries to the general: Trump played to many of the same discontented voters while also appearing to give the illusion of greater financial ability.
The one lesson we should learn from Trump's campaign is that it doesn't matter how good a candidate looks on paper; it's how good or bad they look after an effective negative is run that's important. A candidate so far left that he wouldn't join the Democrats provides a lot of ammunition for his opponents outside of Vermont on that score.
Clinton spent plenty of time attacking Sanders and it didn't wash with the US electorate at large. You can't dismiss the fact that Sanders was far further ahead of Trump than Clinton in polling head-to-heads. The fact that it was Clinton not Trump doing the negative attacking of Sanders was irrelevant.
For once I agree with HYUFD. Trump beat Clinton because he was able to form a narrative that tapped into discontent with the establishment from traditional Democrats in rustbelt states. Sanders had an equally effective narrative for those voters and clearly would have won those states. He also pulled off the impressive feat of challenging Clinton to the wire in primaries in an electoral college rigged against him through the inclusion of Clinton-supporting placemen from the Democratic Party machine, so the idea that he would have alienated other parts of the Democratic base doesn't wash. Moreover he's a particularly effective political operator, having pulled off the incredible feat of having secured a base as a socialist independent in the less than fertile territory of Vermont. Not New York, not California, but leafy middle America VERMONT.
I am beginning to wonder if we will actually leave.
Consider:
1) The talks are going nowhere - we are more than a quarter of the way through the A50 period and agreement has not yet been reached on even the three "first stage" topics, let alone the much more complex transition arrangements; 2) The government has all but conceded that it cannot get the repeal bill through Parliament in its current form and seems to have no idea what to do next; 3) Work has not yet started on the many new systems, agencies and procedures (immigration, customs, air safety etc etc etc) that would be required in the case of a hard exit. The chances of any of this work being complete by March 2019 are zero.
Leaving is therefore not practically possible in the time available. The politics have not yet caught up with the realities of the situation.
My prediction FWIW:
1. December will see agreement on moving to the next stage, on the basis that Britain accepts that the final bill will be substantially more than £20 bn and the EU27 agree that discussion in principle of the transition period is now urgent. The rights of foreign citizens issue will be largely settled and some sort of Irish fudge will be envisaged. People will generally see all this as significant progress and the pressure on May will ease for a while.
2. Details will prove really hard, and we'll have a more serious crunch around the middle of 2018. Best case outcome could be agreement in principle on both £££s and transition and on extending the A50 process by one year ("stopping the clock"). Worst case would be UK government collapse and suspension of negotiations while that's resolved.
It is very hard to see May surviving the compromises and retreats that you (correctly) envisage. Political crisis must be odds on I think.
Not even clear May can get the Great Repeal Bill through at the moment. So, yes, crisis is looming I think.
Maybe that's her strategy; just let everything twist in the wind until it's too late and even the thickest fucking leaver (I'm talking C4 vox pop on the streets of West Yorkshire levels) realises Brexit is impossible.
Question. If there's a by-election in Hallam soon,
1. how good are the Lib Dems' prospects of retaking it? 2. Would Clegg have another go? 3. If he did, would it aid or hinder the Lib Dem cause?
(My guesses - strongish, no, doesn't matter but probably hinder if only because despite any local popularity it'd be offset by his effect on drawing in Lab activists)
1) Very good, they are very strong in the council, and have been for years.
Question. If there's a by-election in Hallam soon,
1. how good are the Lib Dems' prospects of retaking it? 2. Would Clegg have another go? 3. If he did, would it aid or hinder the Lib Dem cause?
(My guesses - strongish, no, doesn't matter but probably hinder if only because despite any local popularity it'd be offset by his effect on drawing in Lab activists)
1) Very good, they are very strong in the council, and have been for years.
2) Yes
3) No
Would you be the Tory candidate and would you have to put a picture of yourself with Mrs May in your leaflet?
Agreed, the guy playing Kemper is quite brilliant. Some superb writing, brilliantly shot and edited. I basically hoovered it up in one sitting....
So did I...the interview scenes are quite brilliant.
About Kemper...
He then waived his right to a parole hearing in 1985, 1988, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002, 2007, and again in 2012. On these occasions, he told the parole board he was not fit to return to society. In February 2016, attorney Scott Currey relayed to the press that Kemper believes no one is ever going to grant him parole and that he is "happy going about his life in prison." Kemper also stipulated that he is uninterested in attending his next parole hearing in 2017.
I am beginning to wonder if we will actually leave.
Consider:
1) The talks are going nowhere - we are more than a quarter of the way through the A50 period and agreement has not yet been reached on even the three "first stage" topics, let alone the much more complex transition arrangements; 2) The government has all but conceded that it cannot get the repeal bill through Parliament in its current form and seems to have no idea what to do next; 3) Work has not yet started on the many new systems, agencies and procedures (immigration, customs, air safety etc etc etc) that would be required in the case of a hard exit. The chances of any of this work being complete by March 2019 are zero.
Leaving is therefore not practically possible in the time available. The politics have not yet caught up with the realities of the situation.
My prediction FWIW:
1. December will see agreement on moving to the next stage, on the basis that Britain accepts that the final bill will be substantially more than £20 bn and the EU27 agree that discussion in principle of the transition period is now urgent. The rights of foreign citizens issue will be largely settled and some sort of Irish fudge will be envisaged. People will generally see all this as significant progress and the pressure on May will ease for a while.
2. Details will prove really hard, and we'll have a more serious crunch around the middle of 2018. Best case outcome could be agreement in principle on both £££s and transition and on extending the A50 process by one year ("stopping the clock"). Worst case would be UK government collapse and suspension of negotiations while that's resolved.
It is very hard to see May surviving the compromises and retreats that you (correctly) envisage. Political crisis must be odds on I think.
Not even clear May can get the Great Repeal Bill through at the moment. So, yes, crisis is looming I think.
Maybe that's her strategy; just let everything twist in the wind until it's too late and even the thickest fucking leaver (I'm talking C4 vox pop on the streets of West Yorkshire levels) realises Brexit is impossible.
A little too intricate and nefarious a plan to have been pulled off or even attempted.
I think if there a by election, I'd go campaign for Clegg or another Lib Dem candidate, and I think I wouldn't be the only Tory activist to do so.
But with Clegg gone, how many of the Hallam Tory voters that Clegg borrowed would return home - especially after their unhappy experience with their current twat of an MP?
I am beginning to wonder if we will actually leave.
Consider:
1) The talks are going nowhere - we are more than a quarter of the way through the A50 period and agreement has not yet been reached on even the three "first stage" topics, let alone the much more complex transition arrangements; 2) The government has all but conceded that it cannot get the repeal bill through Parliament in its current form and seems to have no idea what to do next; 3) Work has not yet started on the many new systems, agencies and procedures (immigration, customs, air safety etc etc etc) that would be required in the case of a hard exit. The chances of any of this work being complete by March 2019 are zero.
Leaving is therefore not practically possible in the time available. The politics have not yet caught up with the realities of the situation.
My prediction FWIW:
1. December will see agreement on moving to the next stage, on the basis that Britain accepts that the final bill will be substantially more than £20 bn and the EU27 agree that discussion in principle of the transition period is now urgent. The rights of foreign citizens issue will be largely settled and some sort of Irish fudge will be envisaged. People will generally see all this as significant progress and the pressure on May will ease for a while.
2. Details will prove really hard, and we'll have a more serious crunch around the middle of 2018. Best case outcome could be agreement in principle on both £££s and transition and on extending the A50 process by one year ("stopping the clock"). Worst case would be UK government collapse and suspension of negotiations while that's resolved.
It is very hard to see May surviving the compromises and retreats that you (correctly) envisage. Political crisis must be odds on I think.
Not even clear May can get the Great Repeal Bill through at the moment. So, yes, crisis is looming I think.
Maybe that's her strategy; just let everything twist in the wind until it's too late and even the thickest fucking leaver (I'm talking C4 vox pop on the streets of West Yorkshire levels) realises Brexit is impossible.
A little too intricate and nefarious a plan to have been pulled off or even attempted.
Why? Kicking the can down the road until you can make the problem go away is the oldest strategy in the world.
I think if there a by election, I'd go campaign for Clegg or another Lib Dem candidate, and I think I wouldn't be the only Tory activist to do so.
But with Clegg gone, how many of the Hallam Tory voters that Clegg borrowed would return home - especially after their unhappy experience with their current twat of an MP?
I think if there a by election, I'd go campaign for Clegg or another Lib Dem candidate, and I think I wouldn't be the only Tory activist to do so.
But with Clegg gone, how many of the Hallam Tory voters that Clegg borrowed would return home - especially after their unhappy experience with their current twat of an MP?
Hallam was Tory until 1997 yes.
A constituency where roughly 2 in 3 voted Remain does not look particularly fertile ground for the May incarnation of the Conservative party.
I think if there a by election, I'd go campaign for Clegg or another Lib Dem candidate, and I think I wouldn't be the only Tory activist to do so.
But with Clegg gone, how many of the Hallam Tory voters that Clegg borrowed would return home - especially after their unhappy experience with their current twat of an MP?
Hallam was Tory until 1997 yes.
A constituency where roughly 2 in 3 voted Remain does not look particularly fertile ground for the May incarnation of the Conservative party.
Even in June some Remain seats voted Tory and now May is making concessions on money and citizens rights for a FTA some voters who voted for Clegg could consider the Tories if Clegg does not stand again.
If Clegg does stand and there is a by election he is the most likely anti Labour option though.
I think if there a by election, I'd go campaign for Clegg or another Lib Dem candidate, and I think I wouldn't be the only Tory activist to do so.
But with Clegg gone, how many of the Hallam Tory voters that Clegg borrowed would return home - especially after their unhappy experience with their current twat of an MP?
Hallam was Tory until 1997 yes.
A constituency where roughly 2 in 3 voted Remain does not look particularly fertile ground for the May incarnation of the Conservative party.
Even in June some Remain seats voted Tory and now May is making concessions on money and citizens rights for a FTA some voters who voted for Clegg could consider the Tories if Clegg does not stand again.
If Clegg does stand and there is a by election he is the most likely anti Labour option though.
Dream on. The Conservatives are giving no reasons for Remain voters to consider them. Only those Remain voters with a historical blind tribal loyalty continue to cling to them. Bit by bit, however, they are drifting away.
I think if there a by election, I'd go campaign for Clegg or another Lib Dem candidate, and I think I wouldn't be the only Tory activist to do so.
But with Clegg gone, how many of the Hallam Tory voters that Clegg borrowed would return home - especially after their unhappy experience with their current twat of an MP?
In 2017 the Tory vote increased by 10.2%, Labour increased by 2.6% - and Labour won the seat from the LibDems. The lesson seems to be that a Tory vote is a wasted vote.
I think if there a by election, I'd go campaign for Clegg or another Lib Dem candidate, and I think I wouldn't be the only Tory activist to do so.
But with Clegg gone, how many of the Hallam Tory voters that Clegg borrowed would return home - especially after their unhappy experience with their current twat of an MP?
Hallam was Tory until 1997 yes.
A constituency where roughly 2 in 3 voted Remain does not look particularly fertile ground for the May incarnation of the Conservative party.
Even in June some Remain seats voted Tory and now May is making concessions on money and citizens rights for a FTA some voters who voted for Clegg could consider the Tories if Clegg does not stand again.
If Clegg does stand and there is a by election he is the most likely anti Labour option though.
Dream on. The Conservatives are giving no reasons for Remain voters to consider them. Only those Remain voters with a historical blind tribal loyalty continue to cling to them. Bit by bit, however, they are drifting away.
Remain/Brexit is far from the sole determinant of why people vote as they do. You can still be a Tory Remainer who thinks Corbyn would be a disaster and the LibDems are risible.
Completely off topic: my new company is now in existence. Very exciting! I will have to go and find some work now.......
Good luck, it’s always a little daunting the day you decide to work for yourself but it’s usually the right decision and I’m sure you will be successful.
I think if there a by election, I'd go campaign for Clegg or another Lib Dem candidate, and I think I wouldn't be the only Tory activist to do so.
But with Clegg gone, how many of the Hallam Tory voters that Clegg borrowed would return home - especially after their unhappy experience with their current twat of an MP?
Hallam was Tory until 1997 yes.
A constituency where roughly 2 in 3 voted Remain does not look particularly fertile ground for the May incarnation of the Conservative party.
Even in June some Remain seats voted Tory and now May is making concessions on money and citizens rights for a FTA some voters who voted for Clegg could consider the Tories if Clegg does not stand again.
If Clegg does stand and there is a by election he is the most likely anti Labour option though.
Dream on. The Conservatives are giving no reasons for Remain voters to consider them. Only those Remain voters with a historical blind tribal loyalty continue to cling to them. Bit by bit, however, they are drifting away.
Remain/Brexit is far from the sole determinant of why people vote as they do. You can still be a Tory Remainer who thinks Corbyn would be a disaster and the LibDems are risible.
"We hate you and think you're crazy, now vote for us because the other lot are crazier" is not a particularly compelling pitch.
Agreed, the guy playing Kemper is quite brilliant. Some superb writing, brilliantly shot and edited. I basically hoovered it up in one sitting....
So did I...the interview scenes are quite brilliant.
About Kemper...
He then waived his right to a parole hearing in 1985, 1988, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002, 2007, and again in 2012. On these occasions, he told the parole board he was not fit to return to society. In February 2016, attorney Scott Currey relayed to the press that Kemper believes no one is ever going to grant him parole and that he is "happy going about his life in prison." Kemper also stipulated that he is uninterested in attending his next parole hearing in 2017.
On a lesser scale, I was once on a government hassle-the-unemployed course whose instructor told us that a few weeks earlier one of the attendees had put a chair through Micky D's window in order to be returned to prison because he could not cope with life outside. For people who have been institutionalised, where they make no meaningful decisions, prisoners or soldiers for instance, can find life outside overwhelming if they have no support network (and of course, in the case of ex-prisoners, often what networks they do have are criminal). At lease this Kemper chap has realised that.
I think if there a by election, I'd go campaign for Clegg or another Lib Dem candidate, and I think I wouldn't be the only Tory activist to do so.
But with Clegg gone, how many of the Hallam Tory voters that Clegg borrowed would return home - especially after their unhappy experience with their current twat of an MP?
Hallam was Tory until 1997 yes.
A constituency where roughly 2 in 3 voted Remain does not look particularly fertile ground for the May incarnation of the Conservative party.
Even in June some Remain seats voted Tory and now May is making concessions on money and citizens rights for a FTA some voters who voted for Clegg could consider the Tories if Clegg does not stand again.
If Clegg does stand and there is a by election he is the most likely anti Labour option though.
Dream on. The Conservatives are giving no reasons for Remain voters to consider them. Only those Remain voters with a historical blind tribal loyalty continue to cling to them. Bit by bit, however, they are drifting away.
Remain/Brexit is far from the sole determinant of why people vote as they do. You can still be a Tory Remainer who thinks Corbyn would be a disaster and the LibDems are risible.
"We hate you and think you're crazy, now vote for us because the other lot are crazier" is not a particularly compelling pitch.
Keep digging. It doesn't need a much bigger hole to inter the remains of your credibility.
I think if there a by election, I'd go campaign for Clegg or another Lib Dem candidate, and I think I wouldn't be the only Tory activist to do so.
But with Clegg gone, how many of the Hallam Tory voters that Clegg borrowed would return home - especially after their unhappy experience with their current twat of an MP?
Hallam was Tory until 1997 yes.
A constituency where roughly 2 in 3 voted Remain does not look particularly fertile ground for the May incarnation of the Conservative party.
Even in June some Remain seats voted Tory and now May is making concessions on money and citizens rights for a FTA some voters who voted for Clegg could consider the Tories if Clegg does not stand again.
If Clegg does stand and there is a by election he is the most likely anti Labour option though.
Dream on. The Conservatives are giving no reasons for Remain voters to consider them. Only those Remain voters with a historical blind tribal loyalty continue to cling to them. Bit by bit, however, they are drifting away.
Remain/Brexit is far from the sole determinant of why people vote as they do. You can still be a Tory Remainer who thinks Corbyn would be a disaster and the LibDems are risible.
"We hate you and think you're crazy, now vote for us because the other lot are crazier" is not a particularly compelling pitch.
Keep digging. It doesn't need a much bigger hole to inter the remains of your credibility.
My credibility is of no account. The Conservatives' willingness to incinerate any chance of any support from a large chunk of the electorate by being as abusive as possible to them in pursuit of the hardest possible Brexit is, however, rather more important.
The other day I posted about technically ignorant politicians wanting things auto-banned by tech firms. And today, this rather sad rant from an excellent YouTuber who provides great, and free, historical videos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzb8U0Bje5A
Morons who think magic filters (probably the same buffoons who think the polygraph is a lie detector) can actually work are just going to bugger things up for ordinary people whilst criminals will find work-arounds. It's bloody stupid.
After watching his Dunkirk tanks (Aras) video from following your link, I'm inclined to think this is more entertaining than many television histories, but then I don't mind the Starkey/AJPTaylor model of just talking to the camera for half an hour. Some of Brian Cox's physics stuff is good too.
As to the Youtube dispute, you are right. This is what happens when politicians meet algorithms, and both fail.
I think if there a by election, I'd go campaign for Clegg or another Lib Dem candidate, and I think I wouldn't be the only Tory activist to do so.
But with Clegg gone, how many of the Hallam Tory voters that Clegg borrowed would return home - especially after their unhappy experience with their current twat of an MP?
Hallam was Tory until 1997 yes.
A constituency where roughly 2 in 3 voted Remain does not look particularly fertile ground for the May incarnation of the Conservative party.
Even in June some Remain seats voted Tory and now May is making concessions on money and citizens rights for a FTA some voters who voted for Clegg could consider the Tories if Clegg does not stand again.
If Clegg does stand and there is a by election he is the most likely anti Labour option though.
Dream on. The Conservatives are giving no reasons for Remain voters to consider them. Only those Remain voters with a historical blind tribal loyalty continue to cling to them. Bit by bit, however, they are drifting away.
Remain/Brexit is far from the sole determinant of why people vote as they do. You can still be a Tory Remainer who thinks Corbyn would be a disaster and the LibDems are risible.
Indeed. In June the Tories won back 70% Remain Richmond Park but lost 65% Leave Dagenham.
I think if there a by election, I'd go campaign for Clegg or another Lib Dem candidate, and I think I wouldn't be the only Tory activist to do so.
But with Clegg gone, how many of the Hallam Tory voters that Clegg borrowed would return home - especially after their unhappy experience with their current twat of an MP?
Hallam was Tory until 1997 yes.
A constituency where roughly 2 in 3 voted Remain does not look particularly fertile ground for the May incarnation of the Conservative party.
Even in June some Remain seats voted Tory and now May is making concessions on money and citizens rights for a FTA some voters who voted for Clegg could consider the Tories if Clegg does not stand again.
If Clegg does stand and there is a by election he is the most likely anti Labour option though.
You've never been to Dore, Totley, or walked round Eccleshall Road have you?
I think if there a by election, I'd go campaign for Clegg or another Lib Dem candidate, and I think I wouldn't be the only Tory activist to do so.
But with Clegg gone, how many of the Hallam Tory voters that Clegg borrowed would return home - especially after their unhappy experience with their current twat of an MP?
Hallam was Tory until 1997 yes.
A constituency where roughly 2 in 3 voted Remain does not look particularly fertile ground for the May incarnation of the Conservative party.
Even in June some Remain seats voted Tory and now May is making concessions on money and citizens rights for a FTA some voters who voted for Clegg could consider the Tories if Clegg does not stand again.
If Clegg does stand and there is a by election he is the most likely anti Labour option though.
Dream on. The Conservatives are giving no reasons for Remain voters to consider them. Only those Remain voters with a historical blind tribal loyalty continue to cling to them. Bit by bit, however, they are drifting away.
And the Tories are going to get hammered in the local elections in London next year for that very reason.
I think if there a by election, I'd go campaign for Clegg or another Lib Dem candidate, and I think I wouldn't be the only Tory activist to do so.
But with Clegg gone, how many of the Hallam Tory voters that Clegg borrowed would return home - especially after their unhappy experience with their current twat of an MP?
Hallam was Tory until 1997 yes.
A constituency where roughly 2 in 3 voted Remain does not look particularly fertile ground for the May incarnation of the Conservative party.
Even in June some Remain seats voted Tory and now May is making concessions on money and citizens rights for a FTA some voters who voted for Clegg could consider the Tories if Clegg does not stand again.
If Clegg does stand and there is a by election he is the most likely anti Labour option though.
Dream on. The Conservatives are giving no reasons for Remain voters to consider them. Only those Remain voters with a historical blind tribal loyalty continue to cling to them. Bit by bit, however, they are drifting away.
Given Corbyn ultimately backs hard Brexit too there is no real reason for Remainers to be wedded to Labour either, the pro single market LDs maybe but not Labour.
I think if there a by election, I'd go campaign for Clegg or another Lib Dem candidate, and I think I wouldn't be the only Tory activist to do so.
But with Clegg gone, how many of the Hallam Tory voters that Clegg borrowed would return home - especially after their unhappy experience with their current twat of an MP?
Hallam was Tory until 1997 yes.
A constituency where roughly 2 in 3 voted Remain does not look particularly fertile ground for the May incarnation of the Conservative party.
Even in June some Remain seats voted Tory and now May is making concessions on money and citizens rights for a FTA some voters who voted for Clegg could consider the Tories if Clegg does not stand again.
If Clegg does stand and there is a by election he is the most likely anti Labour option though.
Dream on. The Conservatives are giving no reasons for Remain voters to consider them. Only those Remain voters with a historical blind tribal loyalty continue to cling to them. Bit by bit, however, they are drifting away.
And the Tories are going to get hammered in the local elections in London next year for that very reason.
I am not so sure. The Tories only hold 9 out of 32 London Councils anyway and in 2014 under Ed Miliband Labour won London by 11%. So the Tories do not have that many more councils to lose there. The Home Counties may be more at risk through Green belt and countryside development.
I think if there a by election, I'd go campaign for Clegg or another Lib Dem candidate, and I think I wouldn't be the only Tory activist to do so.
But with Clegg gone, how many of the Hallam Tory voters that Clegg borrowed would return home - especially after their unhappy experience with their current twat of an MP?
Hallam was Tory until 1997 yes.
A constituency where roughly 2 in 3 voted Remain does not look particularly fertile ground for the May incarnation of the Conservative party.
Even in June some Remain seats voted Tory and now May is making concessions on money and citizens rights for a FTA some voters who voted for Clegg could consider the Tories if Clegg does not stand again.
If Clegg does stand and there is a by election he is the most likely anti Labour option though.
Dream on. The Conservatives are giving no reasons for Remain voters to consider them. Only those Remain voters with a historical blind tribal loyalty continue to cling to them. Bit by bit, however, they are drifting away.
Remain/Brexit is far from the sole determinant of why people vote as they do. You can still be a Tory Remainer who thinks Corbyn would be a disaster and the LibDems are risible.
Indeed. In June the Tories won back 70% Remain Richmond Park but lost 65% Leave Dagenham.
(Although they did see a 23,000 vote majority reduced to 45. So I don't think they can be too proud. Of course, had any other Conservative been the candidate, I suspect it would have been a comfortable hold.)
I think if there a by election, I'd go campaign for Clegg or another Lib Dem candidate, and I think I wouldn't be the only Tory activist to do so.
But with Clegg gone, how many of the Hallam Tory voters that Clegg borrowed would return home - especially after their unhappy experience with their current twat of an MP?
Hallam was Tory until 1997 yes.
A constituency where roughly 2 in 3 voted Remain does not look particularly fertile ground for the May incarnation of the Conservative party.
Even in June some Remain seats voted Tory and now May is making concessions on money and citizens rights for a FTA some voters who voted for Clegg could consider the Tories if Clegg does not stand again.
If Clegg does stand and there is a by election he is the most likely anti Labour option though.
You've never been to Dore, Totley, or walked round Eccleshall Road have you?
I have driven through Hallam albeit never walked there.
Mr. Eagles, indeed. Who is the greater fool, the fool, or the fool who follows him?
David Davis is the greatest fool in British politics at the moment.
He thought Brexit would be so easy.
I said last week I reckon Mrs May is trying to sabotage Brexit, that's why she gave Boris, David Davis, and the disgraced Liam Fox such prominent Brexit roles.
I think if there a by election, I'd go campaign for Clegg or another Lib Dem candidate, and I think I wouldn't be the only Tory activist to do so.
But with Clegg gone, how many of the Hallam Tory voters that Clegg borrowed would return home - especially after their unhappy experience with their current twat of an MP?
Hallam was Tory until 1997 yes.
A constituency where roughly 2 in 3 voted Remain does not look particularly fertile ground for the May incarnation of the Conservative party.
Even in June some Remain seats voted Tory and now May is making concessions on money and citizens rights for a FTA some voters who voted for Clegg could consider the Tories if Clegg does not stand again.
If Clegg does stand and there is a by election he is the most likely anti Labour option though.
Dream on. The Conservatives are giving no reasons for Remain voters to consider them. Only those Remain voters with a historical blind tribal loyalty continue to cling to them. Bit by bit, however, they are drifting away.
Given Corbyn ultimately backs hard Brexit too there is no real reason for Remainers to be wedded to Labour either, the pro single market LDs maybe but not Labour.
Corbyn backs supplying shovels to any of his opponents who are happy to dig holes for themselves.
I think if there a by election, I'd go campaign for Clegg or another Lib Dem candidate, and I think I wouldn't be the only Tory activist to do so.
But with Clegg gone, how many of the Hallam Tory voters that Clegg borrowed would return home - especially after their unhappy experience with their current twat of an MP?
Hallam was Tory until 1997 yes.
A constituency where roughly 2 in 3 voted Remain does not look particularly fertile ground for the May incarnation of the Conservative party.
Even in June some Remain seats voted Tory and now May is making concessions on money and citizens rights for a FTA some voters who voted for Clegg could consider the Tories if Clegg does not stand again.
If Clegg does stand and there is a by election he is the most likely anti Labour option though.
Dream on. The Conservatives are giving no reasons for Remain voters to consider them. Only those Remain voters with a historical blind tribal loyalty continue to cling to them. Bit by bit, however, they are drifting away.
And the Tories are going to get hammered in the local elections in London next year for that very reason.
The 2014 London local elections were so good for Labour, that I suspect there's not much more to gain.
I think if there a by election, I'd go campaign for Clegg or another Lib Dem candidate, and I think I wouldn't be the only Tory activist to do so.
But with Clegg gone, how many of the Hallam Tory voters that Clegg borrowed would return home - especially after their unhappy experience with their current twat of an MP?
Hallam was Tory until 1997 yes.
A constituency where roughly 2 in 3 voted Remain does not look particularly fertile ground for the May incarnation of the Conservative party.
Even in June some Remain seats voted Tory and now May is making concessions on money and citizens rights for a FTA some voters who voted for Clegg could consider the Tories if Clegg does not stand again.
If Clegg does stand and there is a by election he is the most likely anti Labour option though.
Dream on. The Conservatives are giving no reasons for Remain voters to consider them. Only those Remain voters with a historical blind tribal loyalty continue to cling to them. Bit by bit, however, they are drifting away.
Remain/Brexit is far from the sole determinant of why people vote as they do. You can still be a Tory Remainer who thinks Corbyn would be a disaster and the LibDems are risible.
Indeed. In June the Tories won back 70% Remain Richmond Park but lost 65% Leave Dagenham.
(Although they did see a 23,000 vote majority reduced to 45. So I don't think they can be too proud. Of course, had any other Conservative been the candidate, I suspect it would have been a comfortable hold.)
Nonetheless it was still a Tory hold which should have been a LD gain if the vote had gone in line with the referendum as it did in the by election. Lewes, Cheltenham and Tunbridge Wells and Guildford were also potential LD targets which voted Remain the Tories held. Though of course the Tories won far fewer Labour Leave seats than they were expecting to too and post dementia tax even lost some Leave seats to Labour.
I think if there a by election, I'd go campaign for Clegg or another Lib Dem candidate, and I think I wouldn't be the only Tory activist to do so.
But with Clegg gone, how many of the Hallam Tory voters that Clegg borrowed would return home - especially after their unhappy experience with their current twat of an MP?
Hallam was Tory until 1997 yes.
A constituency where roughly 2 in 3 voted Remain does not look particularly fertile ground for the May incarnation of the Conservative party.
Even in June some Remain seats voted Tory and now May is making concessions on money and citizens rights for a FTA some voters who voted for Clegg could consider the Tories if Clegg does not stand again.
If Clegg does stand and there is a by election he is the most likely anti Labour option though.
Dream on. The Conservatives are giving no reasons for Remain voters to consider them. Only those Remain voters with a historical blind tribal loyalty continue to cling to them. Bit by bit, however, they are drifting away.
Remain/Brexit is far from the sole determinant of why people vote as they do. You can still be a Tory Remainer who thinks Corbyn would be a disaster and the LibDems are risible.
"We hate you and think you're crazy, now vote for us because the other lot are crazier" is not a particularly compelling pitch.
Keep digging. It doesn't need a much bigger hole to inter the remains of your credibility.
My credibility is of no account. The Conservatives' willingness to incinerate any chance of any support from a large chunk of the electorate by being as abusive as possible to them in pursuit of the hardest possible Brexit is, however, rather more important.
Back in the day, there were people who supported joining the Euro, who nonetheless voted Conservative.
Attitudes towards Brexit are a big determinant of voting intention, but by no means the only one.
I think if there a by election, I'd go campaign for Clegg or another Lib Dem candidate, and I think I wouldn't be the only Tory activist to do so.
But with Clegg gone, how many of the Hallam Tory voters that Clegg borrowed would return home - especially after their unhappy experience with their current twat of an MP?
Hallam was Tory until 1997 yes.
A constituency where roughly 2 in 3 voted Remain does not look particularly fertile ground for the May incarnation of the Conservative party.
Even in June some Remain seats voted Tory and now May is making concessions on money and citizens rights for a FTA some voters who voted for Clegg could consider the Tories if Clegg does not stand again.
If Clegg does stand and there is a by election he is the most likely anti Labour option though.
Dream on. The Conservatives are giving no reasons for Remain voters to consider them. Only those Remain voters with a historical blind tribal loyalty continue to cling to them. Bit by bit, however, they are drifting away.
And the Tories are going to get hammered in the local elections in London next year for that very reason.
The 2014 London local elections were so good for Labour, that I suspect there's not much more to gain.
People said that about this year's general election, how there was little scope for further Labour gains in London because 2015 was already "so good" for them, but there was a further big swing to them anyway.
I think if there a by election, I'd go campaign for Clegg or another Lib Dem candidate, and I think I wouldn't be the only Tory activist to do so.
But with Clegg gone, how many of the Hallam Tory voters that Clegg borrowed would return home - especially after their unhappy experience with their current twat of an MP?
Hallam was Tory until 1997 yes.
A constituency where roughly 2 in 3 voted Remain does not look particularly fertile ground for the May incarnation of the Conservative party.
Even in June some Remain seats voted Tory and now May is making concessions on money and citizens rights for a FTA some voters who voted for Clegg could consider the Tories if Clegg does not stand again.
If Clegg does stand and there is a by election he is the most likely anti Labour option though.
Dream on. The Conservatives are giving no reasons for Remain voters to consider them. Only those Remain voters with a historical blind tribal loyalty continue to cling to them. Bit by bit, however, they are drifting away.
Remain/Brexit is far from the sole determinant of why people vote as they do. You can still be a Tory Remainer who thinks Corbyn would be a disaster and the LibDems are risible.
"We hate you and think you're crazy, now vote for us because the other lot are crazier" is not a particularly compelling pitch.
Keep digging. It doesn't need a much bigger hole to inter the remains of your credibility.
My credibility is of no account. The Conservatives' willingness to incinerate any chance of any support from a large chunk of the electorate by being as abusive as possible to them in pursuit of the hardest possible Brexit is, however, rather more important.
You'll have evidence for that abuse then?
The country took a decision; the government is implementing it. There may be (indeed, are being) votes swung on how well it's implemented but I that's a different matter and is more an aspect of politic-as-usual: how well the government does its job.
I think if there a by election, I'd go campaign for Clegg or another Lib Dem candidate, and I think I wouldn't be the only Tory activist to do so.
But with Clegg gone, how many of the Hallam Tory voters that Clegg borrowed would return home - especially after their unhappy experience with their current twat of an MP?
Hallam was Tory until 1997 yes.
A constituency where roughly 2 in 3 voted Remain does not look particularly fertile ground for the May incarnation of the Conservative party.
Even in June some Remain seats voted Tory and now May is making concessions on money and citizens rights for a FTA some voters who voted for Clegg could consider the Tories if Clegg does not stand again.
If Clegg does stand and there is a by election he is the most likely anti Labour option though.
Dream on. The Conservatives are giving no reasons for Remain voters to consider them. Only those Remain voters with a historical blind tribal loyalty continue to cling to them. Bit by bit, however, they are drifting away.
And the Tories are going to get hammered in the local elections in London next year for that very reason.
The 2014 London local elections were so good for Labour, that I suspect there's not much more to gain.
People said that about this year's general election, how there was little scope for further Labour gains in London because 2015 was already "so good" for them, but there was a further big swing to them anyway.
That's true, but they didn't actually win many seats off the Conservatives, despite the huge swing. They piled up gigantic majorities in seats they already held.
Question. If there's a by-election in Hallam soon,
1. how good are the Lib Dems' prospects of retaking it? 2. Would Clegg have another go? 3. If he did, would it aid or hinder the Lib Dem cause?
(My guesses - strongish, no, doesn't matter but probably hinder if only because despite any local popularity it'd be offset by his effect on drawing in Lab activists)
1) Very good, they are very strong in the council, and have been for years.
2) Yes
3) No
Cheers. I'm now torn between wanting the Jared to go and wanting him to stay siumply for the popcorn effect.
I think if there a by election, I'd go campaign for Clegg or another Lib Dem candidate, and I think I wouldn't be the only Tory activist to do so.
But with Clegg gone, how many of the Hallam Tory voters that Clegg borrowed would return home - especially after their unhappy experience with their current twat of an MP?
Hallam was Tory until 1997 yes.
A constituency where roughly 2 in 3 voted Remain does not look particularly fertile ground for the May incarnation of the Conservative party.
Even in June some Remain seats voted Tory and now May is making concessions on money and citizens rights for a FTA some voters who voted for Clegg could consider the Tories if Clegg does not stand again.
If Clegg does stand and there is a by election he is the most likely anti Labour option though.
Dream on. The Conservatives are giving no reasons for Remain voters to consider them. Only those Remain voters with a historical blind tribal loyalty continue to cling to them. Bit by bit, however, they are drifting away.
Remain/Brexit is far from the sole determinant of why people vote as they do. You can still be a Tory Remainer who thinks Corbyn would be a disaster and the LibDems are risible.
"We hate you and think you're crazy, now vote for us because the other lot are crazier" is not a particularly compelling pitch.
Keep digging. It doesn't need a much bigger hole to inter the remains of your credibility.
My credibility is of no account. The Conservatives' willingness to incinerate any chance of any support from a large chunk of the electorate by being as abusive as possible to them in pursuit of the hardest possible Brexit is, however, rather more important.
You'll have evidence for that abuse then?
The country took a decision; the government is implementing it. There may be (indeed, are being) votes swung on how well it's implemented but I that's a different matter and is more an aspect of politic-as-usual: how well the government does its job.
"citizens of nowhere" "crush the saboteurs" "treachery"
Comments
Look at Corbyn. He’s been called all sorts of names and has maintained his calm, reasonable manner and when people looked at his policies they did not appear to be the equivalent of Pol Pot’s manifesto.
It can be done. I am pretty sure I could come up with a range of measures (indeed I remember listing some here in early 2015 at the time of the Charlie Hebdo assassinations) to address some of these issues, which would not be fascist, could not be reasonably called fascist and which might have a chance of getting support, including from immigrants themselves.
If you’re in politics, you make the arguments and try to change the terms of debate. Not cower in a corner because you’re afraid someone might call you names.
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/922768216287596544
It's only a few years ago authorities were turning a blind eye or even colluding in the rape of WWC girls and boys because doing otherwise and actually investigating rape claims would be deemed 'culturally insensitive'. There's a bloody huge way to go and the mainstream of politics needs to address concerns and defend British values.
Instead, we read of police not attending poppy events which is causing their cancellation, but entirely able to attend Al-Quds marching through London.
The Conservatives are fixated on both leaving the EU and internal bloodletting, whilst the Official Opposition of Labour is led by a self-declared friend of Hamas and Hezbollah.
There's great potential for the far right to rise. It's a disturbing situation, and it may well worsen.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/westminster-s-hall-of-mirrors-is-about-to-shatter-gxp2qcdt5
What a f**** mess we are in.
My point was that if/when it is done they be called nazis/fascist by the media, establishment and the rest of the political class.
You can see that in action on here regarding Austria now that they have finally elected a government who is serious in actually tackling the issue.
Also look at the massive outrage at Trump when he tried to limit Islamic immigration to the US.
One cynical definition of a liberal is of someone who “won’t even support his own side in an argument”.
Well, I’m not that kind of a liberal and, not that I can do much or, indeed, anything at all, I’m damn well not going to allow Islamism or Fascism or Marxism, come to that, damage and degrade what I hold dear and what I would like to pass onto my children.
Islam in Austria has gone from 2% of the population in 1991 to 8% in 2016. It has gone up 400% in 25 years.
I stick by my claim that allowed to continue like this then yes Austria will "turn Islamic".
Nobody is forcing her to stay and there are plenty out of politicians out there that would like to have a go, Boris, Davis, Jezza...
Only about a dozen States are rock solid for the Democrats, compared to about 20 States that are solid for the Republicans.
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/25636/jared_o'mara/sheffield,_hallam
Nothing like trying to curry favour with the known concerns of his party's leader.
"If we fail it then the negotiations will end in our defeat," he told MEPs.
So now we know. The EU see the negotiations as a battle to be won or lost.
If he had come out after he was elected (and preferably before), and said: "Look, when I was younger I was a bit of an asshat. I said some awful things online that I sincerely regret, and would like to use my voice in parliament to try to encourage others not to be asshats," then that would be brilliant.
Saying it after you are caught out makes it seem rather fake.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/on-demand/0/americas-charming-maniac-story-mindhunter-star-ed-kemper/
The crocodile tears at last night's PLP meeting mean nothing and were clearly a staged attempt to draw a line under the matter. However the re-emergence of the nightclub incident today show that it was all fake.
He won't resign as MP - and we don't have a recall option. However the whip should be permanently withdrawn and he should be banned from standing for Labour again.
Corbyn won't do that, of course. He would demand it if it was a baby-eating Tory who behaved in the same way. But his double-standards know no limits.
Hammond clearly sees them in the same light.
https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/922775783827034112
To win next time in the rustbelt swing states that voted for Trump the Democrats need a candidate who is more concerned about immigration and globalisation than Hillary was to neutralise that issue and can then go on an anti big business, anti austerity, anti inequality, anti Wall Street line ie Sanders.
In the same way here Corbyn won Leave areas by neutralising Brexit by agreeing to leave the single market to end free movement and that allowed him to go on an anti austerity, anti big business, anti inequality line which won over the poor and lower middle class.
1. how good are the Lib Dems' prospects of retaking it?
2. Would Clegg have another go?
3. If he did, would it aid or hinder the Lib Dem cause?
(My guesses - strongish, no, doesn't matter but probably hinder if only because despite any local popularity it'd be offset by his effect on drawing in Lab activists)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/10/tories-urgently-investigating-after-mp-uses-n-word-at-public-event
2) Yes
3) No
About Kemper...
He then waived his right to a parole hearing in 1985, 1988, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002, 2007, and again in 2012. On these occasions, he told the parole board he was not fit to return to society. In February 2016, attorney Scott Currey relayed to the press that Kemper believes no one is ever going to grant him parole and that he is "happy going about his life in prison." Kemper also stipulated that he is uninterested in attending his next parole hearing in 2017.
If Clegg does stand and there is a by election he is the most likely anti Labour option though.
The lesson seems to be that a Tory vote is a wasted vote.
He warned us that it would be the row of the summer, but then he meekly surrendered like a French General.
As to the Youtube dispute, you are right. This is what happens when politicians meet algorithms, and both fail.
He thought Brexit would be so easy.
I said last week I reckon Mrs May is trying to sabotage Brexit, that's why she gave Boris, David Davis, and the disgraced Liam Fox such prominent Brexit roles.
Attitudes towards Brexit are a big determinant of voting intention, but by no means the only one.
The country took a decision; the government is implementing it. There may be (indeed, are being) votes swung on how well it's implemented but I that's a different matter and is more an aspect of politic-as-usual: how well the government does its job.
"crush the saboteurs"
"treachery"
That do for starters?