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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Theresa May’s Maidenhead could be the next parliamentary by-election in a CON held seat
Two days ago in my post on why there would not be a general election until 2022 I observed that there have been very few by elections in CON held seats in recent times. Tory MPs have been a lot healthier than LAB ones.
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I suspect the LibDems would find it fun as well.
Likewise, as Mike points out, deaths among Tory MPs have been few and far between these last 20 years. I'm sure there will be some actuarial expectation of by-elections but that's very much a numbers game and the probability of any particular MP being the next has to be low.
However, while May could be the next out, it won't be any time soon. Despite the problems at PMQs, I don't think there's a mood to replace her right now. Doing so in the middle of Brexit talks would just be too disruptive with too little payoff. Unless her position becomes critical to a point where it's clearly undermining her (and Davis') position in Brussels, I don't think the MPs will move during the next year.
https://twitter.com/britainelects
Then again, upon a time a certain Philip Hammond fancied the seat, but he was beaten at the selection meeting by a certain Mrs May.
Marginal seats rarely get MPs into their 70s because periods of dominance rarely last more than 15 years and MPs are rarely first elected in the mid-50s or above.
Elderly MPs on all sides are by far most likely to be held in safe seats that they personally have held for 25+ years and often, which their party has held for much longer. However, long-serving MPs tended to be particularly prone to the sort of expenses claim that was taking the public for a ride, resulting in a much higher than usual attrition rate in safe Tory seats in 2010.
I’ve seen a few reports (they are out there on Google - I’m crap at linking) in the past that suggest (always tough to be accurate - even defining “Brit”) but they seem to state that Spain is about 300k France a bit less than that, Ireland about 200k, Germany and Italy about 100K or less. One assumes most in Spain and probably France are 50+ retirees.
What’s more interesting from what I’ve seen are the equivalents for NZ, Canada, USA and Australia which are I believe around NZ 250k, Canada, USA 6-800k each and Australia about 1.2M.
Draw what conclusions we all will but it’s kind of stark to say the least.
Assuming 90% (Nick?) of the PLP don't want that either it leaves the Cons hugely vulnerable to a change of leadership and pivot away from Corbynite Marxist-ist fantasy.
Quite an amazing state of British politics.
Up there with that 'first they ignore you, then you win' bullcrap...
I know hard/WTO Brexit gives the wood to some Leavers, but it really shouldn’t.
Language proving a barrier to Europe but a bridge to the wider world?
Which raised a chuckle.
Likewise we were promised similar if Britain didn't join the Euro or if Britain left the ERM.
Now it may be this time the wolf is really out there but when 'wolf' has been cried so many times before ...
Where opinion divide most is over McDonnell. The general Tory view is that he's the real Venezualan, bent on nationalising everything and running mega-deficits. IMO that's simply wrong - whether deliberately or not. He's the necessary hard-headed pragmatist that the Treasury will need, who can and will say "Jeremy, we can't afford that." We're all clear that he's a radical left-winger, but one who will compromise as needed: he wants it all to work, and he's prepared for it better than Ed Balls did. The fact that he's less purely principled and gentle than Jeremy is a good thing: we don't want a starry-eyed Chancellor.
Those Heath era politicians and foreign office bods who thought Britain would quickly dominate the then EEC were deluded fools in comparison.
Looking at those stats is pause for thought: more in the UAE than Germany and Italy combined. As many in Australia as the whole of the EU. Head and heart stuff? People find work in Europe but want to live in Australia? Sweeping and ridiculous generalisation sure, but in my long experience national stereotypes are not wholly wrong either (!)
https://www.ft.com/content/2b7c858a-b400-11e7-a398-73d59db9e399
The lesson of 2016 is instructive. Corbyn successfully faced down a gigantic rebellion based on his support in the Party. There is every reason to assume that his Party base has grown stronger since then, both because of his own improved performance and because more Corbynites have joined while centrists dads have left. There can be no doubt that bolstered by his experience then, he'd stay and fight again if someone took the challenge to him.
On top of which, Labour MPs are well aware that Corbyn has been doing his job better of late, as evidenced by this week's PMQs. They may well have strong reservations about some policies but there is a respect for him now that wasn't there last year. What he did during the election was impressive, particularly if you're an MP who was looking at defeat and ended up winning (yes, you were looking at defeat in the first place in no small part because of Corbyn but even those circumstances have changed).
Unless Corbyn suffers a serious health problem - of which there's no sign - or blunders to an extent worse than 2015/16 (because he both has more credit now than he did then, and because his victory last year will make MPs wary of challenging again even in the same situation), his position is safe as long as he wants.
Too right - barely an evening goes by without a discussion of AV in our house!
I feel sorry for her. The Tory Parliamentary Party are, on the whole, a bunch, of useless, self serving twats without an iota of compassion for anything other than their egos.
In theory, the next election could be a fascinating battle of ideas between the hard left and the Tory Right, over major policies like social care and nationalising water and rail.
I suspect though that it will be totally dominated by the fall-out from Brexit.
How much if at all better do you think Lab would do without the triumvirate?
' Today, we are setting out our assessment of what would happen in the weeks and months after a vote to Leave on June 23.
It is clear that there would be an immediate and profound shock to our economy.
The analysis produced by the Treasury today shows that a vote to leave will push our economy into a recession that would knock 3.6 per cent off GDP and, over two years, put hundreds of thousands of people out of work right across the country, compared to the forecast for continued growth if we vote to remain in the EU.
In a more severe shock scenario, Treasury economists estimate that our economy could be hit by 6 per cent, there would be a deeper recession and unemployment would rise by even more. '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/22/david-cameron-and-george-osborne-brexit-would-put-our-economy-in/
And if you're rambling on about the exchange rate then perhaps you'd like to say whether a country which has had a cumulative current account deficit of nearly £500bn during the last five years needs a higher or lower exchange rate.
Not to mention the extra export orders for where I work.
Why do you regard those as bad things ?
Edit - sorry, you mean Anyone But Corbyn, don't you? Well, maybe they will, maybe they won't; it depends on how he does. However, an equally valid question is 'does he need them'?
https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/921292263367630848
We're with you comrade.
I think you need a new bleat sheet.
Whether people are relieved or not the current account defict needs reducing and a more competitive exchange rate is part of that.
As George Osborne said in 2010:
' And at the moment we borrow money from the Chinese in order to buy the things that the Chinese make for us. '
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8489984.stm
Or are you saying that Osborne was wrong ?
I think Mike will be on holiday when the verdict is due.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/07/01/everything-is-negotiable-how-the-election-result-may-have-improved-britains-negotiating-position-in-the-brexit-talks/
I pointed on the last thread the astonishing bias towards London & the South of England in Oxbridge admissions. Over half of all the applications!
And I asked why aren't MP's from the North & the Midlands & Wales & Scotland complaining ?
Those MPs are still not doing anything of course, but at least Lammy is complaining on their behalf.
You'd be surprised at how many people at my work have mentioned how much their pension funds have increased this year.
So wealth creating under 60s being financially better off - no wonder you're annoyed.
Nothing in the Labour manifesto is any more radical than most European countries currently already adopt successfully. You may say "ah, but once in power Labour will ditch their manifesto and implement a marxist policy agenda" but really? - how's that ever going to get through a HoC vote?
No, the biggest threat to Britain's future right now is a 'no deal' hard Brexit. IMO May & Hammond know that and I suspect it is increasingly dawning on Davis, Gove & Johnson.
But of course the EU27 know it too, hence they have no need to soften their hard line. If only we had adopted a more open stance at the outset, rather than getting the EU27 backs up!
The more I consider it, the more culpable Cameron looks. Setting aside his whole approach to the EU-ref, once the vote was in he should have stayed to deliver the consequences, rather than run away. He could have dictated a sensible soft-brexit.
Too late now, I fear - either we sign-up to a solution entirely dictated by the EU (still the best option) or we face 20 years of economic disaster.
'Even if I l was paralysed from the waist down, life would still be workable.'
It wasn't weird, it was principled.
Back when Conservatives had principles.
Especially if it is an electoral crime.
I walked away from a high powered job in my early 40's. Life is too short, so I do genuinely feel sorry for her.
Could you imagine the prospect of chairing a meeting with fucking Boris Johnson, Davis, Fox, Rudd, Philip Hammond, Leadsome and the rest...all sat there with their stupid faces. You know all of them are plotting and conniving and undermining you in some way or the other. Think about how she feels before she walks into that room.
Leading the Tory party is utterly thankless. That is why men who have been bullied, intimidated and humiliated as children through seven years of boarding at Eton or the like are much better prepared for it.
Yes, should be May 14th 2018.
On Brexit, I hate subjecting people to Kuebler-Ross, but heck Leavers did it enough to Remainers earlier. Leavers are going through the denial to anger transition that Remainers passed through some time ago. Presumably both groups will get to acceptance. Brexit is happening and it will be crap.
On the same page the two groups will coalesce around an EEA/Norway style Single Market with payments, EU judicial oversight, Freedom of Movement, taking of rules but no making of them. It's a nonsense solution regardless of your standpoint, but we are where are and will be where will be. We can do EEA and get on with it. It gives us parts of the previous arrangement without going back to the previous arrangement.
And, yes, we will do a deal with the EU involving payment of some tens of billions of euros. Probably as part of the Article 50 Withdrawal Agreement.
That's enough from me about Brexit for a while. Ya'll enjoy your day and weekend when it comes.
I don't think it should be that hard to sell even a deal which is effectively a capitulation to the EU to the majority of the public (given circa 50% don't want us to leave, you only need to convince a small proportion of the Leavers).
Nothing short of a full-on hard brexit will ever convince the Headbangers - unfortunately, she has a number of those in the PCP and I think fear of upsetting those is driving the current poor decision-making.
According to the post-election Mori survey, Labour won the DE vote by 47-38 (LD 5, UKIP 3). That compares with 41-27 (UKIP 17, LD 5) in 2015. In other words, a 2½ per cent net swing from Lab to Con.
Successful leaders like Blair and Cameron quit so as not to overshadow their successors. Unsuccessful leaders like Hague, IDS and Miliband all hung around (as did Brown for 5 years). Besides what else would she do? She doesn't have kids and I can't see her doing the speaking circuit.
Also staying on gives her the chance for some sort of redemption down the line, perhaps like Hague helping to mentor a young leader of the opposition. I think you have to think about her sense of duty as well.
Come on here and everything is still terrible for Theresa and the whole world is falling apart?
In answer to something SeanF wrote on the previous thread about the average age of Leavers I started looking at the Referendum demographics. It struck me that the divide is more geographical than age which shouldn't be surprising as the average Londoner will have more affinity with a Parisian than someone from Grimsby Barnsley or Boston in Lincolnshire
As for the PLP, opinion is nuanced. Corbyn is respected as decent and has surprised them by turning out good at the job, but he's not the sort of guy you'd spend an evening in the bar with: he has an aloof streak, and after one drink he'd murmur politely that he had some papers to look at. McDonnell is a much more recognisable clubbable type - in some ways he's rather like Ed Balls, and MPs recognise the potential to do deals with him.
To answer your question: I don't know - there would be fewer new voters, more Tory switchers. But I think voters in general are in a mood to roll the dice so long as they feel it's reasonably safe, and a "don't worry, we're much the same really, just a bit more progressive and sensible with it" approach wouldn't be as successful as one might think.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41691656
Lets get Corbyn in