See this is the bit I don't understand - once we leave we aren't going to twiddle our thumbs for the next 30 years.
That is right - we will spend 30 years trying to get back to where we were pre-Brexit and trying to regain our reputation for competence that the current bunch of delusional ditherers has trashed. The world is not standing around looking in admiration at us plucky Brits. The world is looking at us and thinking either "How can we exploit this?" or "WTF are they doing?"
Free of the EU - the Uk could be a lot more nimble - should it choose a government which will enable that.
That is what you would like, an ideal scenario. What we will get is reality. Post Brexit we will soon know who our friends are.
But what the heck... you will soon rationalise this away and believe whatever you want. Just remember that it is unlikely that reality will share your idealism.
God knows how nations a fraction of our [economic] size like Australia, Canada etc cope outside the bosom of the EU.
I moved to Australia in 1992. Back then Australia was a poorer country than European nations. Per capita British GDP was 10% higher than Australia's. German GDP per capita was 50% higher.
Since then the EU has been sclerotic and failed while Australia has been nimble and signed free trade deals with lots of the world including the USA. But not including the sclerotic EU.
Today the idea of Aussies being poor has completely been reversed. Aussie GDP per capita is 25% higher than Britain's and 20% higher than Germany's. An incredible transformation in the last quarter century.
We could learn a thing or two from our Antipodean cousins.
What precisely would we learn from Australia? Dig a big hole in the middle of the country and ride a commodities boom?
More of their economy depends on importing Chinese (and other) millionaires than on raw materials export, I think. Thus far, Brexit is likely to make us a less attractive destination - and the possibility of a Corbyn government is unlikely to improve that...
After the Tories, Brexit and Corbyn in succession, the next generation faces a future of having to go to work on building sites and in restaurants in Poland. If the EU lets them in.
Does this mean a new series of Boys from the Black Stuff? Can't wait.
'Auf Wiedersehen, Pet' surely? Or 'Do Widzenia, Pet' for the remake.
See this is the bit I don't understand - once we leave we aren't going to twiddle our thumbs for the next 30 years.
That is right - we will spend 30 years trying to get back to where we were pre-Brexit and trying to regain our reputation for competence that the current bunch of delusional ditherers has trashed. The world is not standing around looking in admiration at us plucky Brits. The world is looking at us and thinking either "How can we exploit this?" or "WTF are they doing?"
Free of the EU - the Uk could be a lot more nimble - should it choose a government which will enable that.
That is what you would like, an ideal scenario. What we will get is reality. Post Brexit we will soon know who our friends are.
But what the heck... you will soon rationalise this away and believe whatever you want. Just remember that it is unlikely that reality will share your idealism.
God knows how nations a fraction of our [economic] size like Australia, Canada etc cope outside the bosom of the EU.
I moved to Australia in 1992. Back then Australia was a poorer country than European nations. Per capita British GDP was 10% higher than Australia's. German GDP per capita was 50% higher.
Since then the EU has been sclerotic and failed while Australia has been nimble and signed free trade deals with lots of the world including the USA. But not including the sclerotic EU.
Today the idea of Aussies being poor has completely been reversed. Aussie GDP per capita is 25% higher than Britain's and 20% higher than Germany's. An incredible transformation in the last quarter century.
We could learn a thing or two from our Antipodean cousins.
Lesson one have lots of natural resources the Chinese want to buy.
I can’t for reasons of confidentiality give you specific examples. But, for instance, too many of the supposed benefits of mergers turn out to be non-existent or hugely outweighed by the costs.
I will start writing that book....... (Mind you, with that sort of title who knows what sort of audience it might get.......)
I think the value created and destroyed and for whom in each case wrt mergers, especially marquee ones, has been suspect ever since Daimler-Chrysler and before.
Everyone knows it, but it doesn't stop Company A wanting to buy Company B against all advice sometimes. Blame the principals, not the IBs all the time.
And yes get writing. As for audiences, the more the merrier for whatever reason as long as they buy it (there, we are sounding like investment bankers now...)
That is what you would like, an ideal scenario. What we will get is reality. Post Brexit we will soon know who our friends are.
But what the heck... you will soon rationalise this away and believe whatever you want. Just remember that it is unlikely that reality will share your idealism.
God knows how nations a fraction of our [economic] size like Australia, Canada etc cope outside the bosom of the EU.
I moved to Australia in 1992. Back then Australia was a poorer country than European nations. Per capita British GDP was 10% higher than Australia's. German GDP per capita was 50% higher.
Since then the EU has been sclerotic and failed while Australia has been nimble and signed free trade deals with lots of the world including the USA. But not including the sclerotic EU.
Today the idea of Aussies being poor has completely been reversed. Aussie GDP per capita is 25% higher than Britain's and 20% higher than Germany's. An incredible transformation in the last quarter century.
We could learn a thing or two from our Antipodean cousins.
What precisely would we learn from Australia? Dig a big hole in the middle of the country and ride a commodities boom?
More of their economy depends on importing Chinese (and other) millionaires than on raw materials export, I think. Thus far, Brexit is likely to make us a less attractive destination - and the possibility of a Corbyn government is unlikely to improve that...
After the Tories, Brexit and Corbyn in succession, the next generation faces a future of having to go to work on building sites and in restaurants in Poland. If the EU lets them in.
Does this mean a new series of Boys from the Black Stuff? Can't wait.
Auf Wiedersehen, Pet, surely.
He (or his subconscious) knew what he meant.
'a warm, humorous but ultimately tragic look at the way economics affect ordinary people'
That's very gracious. Exactly what I was thinking.
I have foxes too. There’s a burrow 2 gardens down. A nuisance since one of them stole one of my shoes left on the veranda and a few months back one was chased into the house or got in somehow, made it into the first floor bathroom and proceeded to leave an almightly mess everywhere before finally escaping. And all at 3 am!
Squirrels are, I’m afraid, the enemy. Second only to slugs and snails.
If I could only train my dog or cats to get rid of them........
We also have a fox burrow in a neighbouring garden, but it seems that the foxes come and go. Some years the burrow is not used. The first time I heard a fox cry at 11pm I thought someone was being attacked.
Nah... bullshit. Bankers are very good at making bullshit sound like dreams and sizzle but it is mostly bullshit.
I should know. I’ve spent a lifetime with a mop and bucket cleaning it up.
Very harsh and, for PB, perhaps to gain a cheap laugh.
Bullshit claims? To whom? Their corporate clients? That they can get an unobtainable multiple?
Not sure which bit is bullshit to that extent. Give me a for instance...
You don't remember GS and their packaged mortgage securities - to take a single, but rather large example... ?
Yes that was pretty bad - but arguably there was a caveat emptor element in there also. People wanted to believe that it was too good to be true.
But @Cyclefree's post reads as though day in day out the IBs are defrauding, lying, cheating, etc.
No - most bankers don’t defraud. But bullshit is not the same as criminal behaviour. And bullshit can be damaging to what is essential in finance - trust.
I have seen too much bullshit. I have seen too much of the damage it causes. And I think, naive fool that I am, that finance should be better than this.
See this is the bit I don't understand - once we leave we aren't going to twiddle our thumbs for the next 30 years.
That is right - we will spend 30 years trying to get back to where we were pre-Brexit and trying to regain our reputation for competence that the current bunch of delusional ditherers has trashed. The world is not standing around looking in admiration at us plucky Brits. The world is looking at us and thinking either "How can we exploit this?" or "WTF are they doing?"
Free of the EU - the Uk could be a lot more nimble - should it choose a government which will enable that.
That is what you would like, an ideal scenario. What we will get is reality. Post Brexit we will soon know who our friends are.
But what the heck... you will soon rationalise this away and believe whatever you want. Just remember that it is unlikely that reality will share your idealism.
God knows how nations a fraction of our [economic] size like Australia, Canada etc cope outside the bosom of the EU.
I moved to Australia in 1992. Back then Australia was a poorer country than European nations. Per capita British GDP was 10% higher than Australia's. German GDP per capita was 50% higher.
Since then the EU has been sclerotic and failed while Australia has been nimble and signed free trade deals with lots of the world including the USA. But not including the sclerotic EU.
Today the idea of Aussies being poor has completely been reversed. Aussie GDP per capita is 25% higher than Britain's and 20% higher than Germany's. An incredible transformation in the last quarter century.
We could learn a thing or two from our Antipodean cousins.
Lesson one have lots of natural resources the Chinese want to buy.
See this is the bit I don't understand - once we leave we aren't going to twiddle our thumbs for the next 30 years.
That is right - we will spend 30 years trying to get back to where we were pre-Brexit and trying to regain our reputation for competence that the current bunch of delusional ditherers has trashed. The world is not standing around looking in admiration at us plucky Brits. The world is looking at us and thinking either "How can we exploit this?" or "WTF are they doing?"
Free of the EU - the Uk could be a lot more nimble - should it choose a government which will enable that.
That is what you would like, an ideal scenario. What we will get is reality. Post Brexit we will soon know who our friends are.
But what the heck... you will soon rationalise this away and believe whatever you want. Just remember that it is unlikely that reality will share your idealism.
God knows how nations a fraction of our [economic] size like Australia, Canada etc cope outside the bosom of the EU.
I moved to Australia in 1992. Back then Australia was a poorer country than European nations. Per capita British GDP was 10% higher than Australia's. German GDP per capita was 50% higher.
Since then the EU has been sclerotic and failed while Australia has been nimble and signed free trade deals with lots of the world including the USA. But not including the sclerotic EU.
Today the idea of Aussies being poor has completely been reversed. Aussie GDP per capita is 25% higher than Britain's and 20% higher than Germany's. An incredible transformation in the last quarter century.
We could learn a thing or two from our Antipodean cousins.
Lesson one have lots of natural resources the Chinese want to buy.
We were being told this morning that we have loads of wind to sell. Despite Westminster it is not particularly London centric either.
When the gardening bug strikes I have even been known to garden in high heels.
“Gardening in High Heels” - now there’s a book title!
Was there a reason for that? Or was it an emergency gardening situation?
Did you have a matching bag/clutch?
I was in the garden, waiting for a handsome young man to come and see me about something or other, saw something that needed doing and got on with it without changing my shoes. It was summer so no harm was done to the shoes. (Orange suede with kitten heels. Very striking and comfortable.)
The only emergency I ever face in the garden is trying to get rid of the bloody squirrel that digs up my bulbs........
I quite like the long tailed tree rats myself, but then my garden has nothing that I worry about. I do have several foxes that pass through and one who sleeps under the conifer on wet mornings
I have foxes too. There’s a burrow 2 gardens down. A nuisance since one of them stole one of my shoes left on the veranda and a few months back one was chased into the house or got in somehow, made it into the first floor bathroom and proceeded to leave an almightly mess everywhere before finally escaping. And all at 3 am!
Squirrels are, I’m afraid, the enemy. Second only to slugs and snails.
If I could only train my dog or cats to get rid of them........
You need to borrow my dog, Cyclefree. (See avatar for pic.) Her tally is four to date, but would be a lot higher if I didn't warn the little furry creatures whenever I can. I am squeamish, and cannot cope with their sad little faces when she drops them at my feet.
Incidentally, can I get into trouble for allowing her off the lead in public parks if she cannot be trusted not to persecute the squirrel population? Not sure of the law on that one.
Can someone explain to me why the people who were so obsessed with "the sovereignty of the British Parliament" are apparenly so relaxed about the government ignoring Parliament's sovereign decision on Universal Credit?
Not that I care, but actually what is sovereign is the Queen in Parliament, and an opposition day vote is a million miles away from counting as a "sovereign decision" by anyone or thing. Otherwise, good point.
See this is the bit I don't understand - once we leave we aren't going to twiddle our thumbs for the next 30 years.
That is right - we will spend 30 years trying to get back to where we were pre-Brexit and trying to regain our reputation for competence that the current bunch of delusional ditherers has trashed. The world is not standing around looking in admiration at us plucky Brits. The world is looking at us and thinking either "How can we exploit this?" or "WTF are they doing?"
Free of the EU - the Uk could be a lot more nimble - should it choose a government which will enable that.
That is what you would like, an ideal scenario. What we will get is reality. Post Brexit we will soon know who our friends are.
But what the heck... you will soon rationalise this away and believe whatever you want. Just remember that it is unlikely that reality will share your idealism.
God knows how nations a fraction of our [economic] size like Australia, Canada etc cope outside the bosom of the EU.
I moved to Australia in 1992. Back then Australia was a poorer country than European nations. Per capita British GDP was 10% higher than Australia's. German GDP per capita was 50% higher.
Since then the EU has been sclerotic and failed while Australia has been nimble and signed free trade deals with lots of the world including the USA. But not including the sclerotic EU.
Today the idea of Aussies being poor has completely been reversed. Aussie GDP per capita is 25% higher than Britain's and 20% higher than Germany's. An incredible transformation in the last quarter century.
We could learn a thing or two from our Antipodean cousins.
Lesson one have lots of natural resources the Chinese want to buy.
We were being told this morning that we have loads of wind to sell. Despite Westminster it is not particularly London centric either.
Alec Salmond was going to export renewable energy, but I don't think we ever learned how this would work. Little AA McDuracells, perhaps.
Nah... bullshit. Bankers are very good at making bullshit sound like dreams and sizzle but it is mostly bullshit.
I should know. I’ve spent a lifetime with a mop and bucket cleaning it up.
Very harsh and, for PB, perhaps to gain a cheap laugh.
Bullshit claims? To whom? Their corporate clients? That they can get an unobtainable multiple?
Not sure which bit is bullshit to that extent. Give me a for instance...
You don't remember GS and their packaged mortgage securities - to take a single, but rather large example... ?
Yes that was pretty bad - but arguably there was a caveat emptor element in there also. People wanted to believe that it was too good to be true.
But @Cyclefree's post reads as though day in day out the IBs are defrauding, lying, cheating, etc.
No - most bankers don’t defraud. But bullshit is not the same as criminal behaviour. And bullshit can be damaging to what is essential in finance - trust.
I have seen too much bullshit. I have seen too much of the damage it causes. And I think, naive fool that I am, that finance should be better than this.
The mis-selling of IRSAs by "treasury" bankers to small and medium sized businesses over the last 10 years is a disgrace that has caused huge economic damage and yet the Banks seem largely to be getting away with it with the contrivance of the Courts who apply a "no advice" clause in a contract strictly
I think many of the political commentators have been too quick to write off the SNP. Most recent Holyrood & WM polling is showing that the SNP is steadily recovering it's position. Given the Tories woes and SLAB's leadership shenanigans this recovery is most likely set to continue.
In terms of the Tories wishing for an SNP revival to keep SLAB at bay, it would be just as likely to sweep them away as well. With the SNP now solidly in 40% territory for WM & Holyrood, a return to +45% would see them back into sweeping the board territory in the FPTP seats.
One of SLAB's main issues which it needs to address to secure it's current support levels, is how to keep on side the 25-30% of it's supporters who favour independence. If they climb onboard the diehard Unionists bus - this segment of support is vulnerable to switching to the SNP.
I feel a bit sorry for Ruth who's continuing popularity appears to have become disengaged from falling SCON support. I'm sure she'll do the right thing for Scotland and fight for funds to regentrify Scotland's cities and boost the economy. However, the SNP will likely get the credit for any improvement in the Scottish economy. That's politics for you, a very unfair game.
Interesting that Anas is so keen to distance himself from Bettertogether, despite copious evidence to the contrary. Perhaps he's showing hitherto unrevealed political smarts.
See this is the bit I don't understand - once we leave we aren't going to twiddle our thumbs for the next 30 years.
That is right - we will spend 30 years trying to get back to where we were pre-Brexit and trying to regain our reputation for competence that the current bunch of delusional ditherers has trashed. The world is not standing around looking in admiration at us plucky Brits. The world is looking at us and thinking either "How can we exploit this?" or "WTF are they doing?"
Free of the EU - the Uk could be a lot more nimble - should it choose a government which will enable that.
That is what you would like, an ideal scenario. What we will get is reality. Post Brexit we will soon know who our friends are.
But what the heck... you will soon rationalise this away and believe whatever you want. Just remember that it is unlikely that reality will share your idealism.
God knows how nations a fraction of our [economic] size like Australia, Canada etc cope outside the bosom of the EU.
I moved to Australia in 1992. Back then Australia was a poorer country than European nations. Per capita British GDP was 10% higher than Australia's. German GDP per capita was 50% higher.
Since then the EU has been sclerotic and failed while Australia has been nimble and signed free trade deals with lots of the world including the USA. But not including the sclerotic EU.
Today the idea of Aussies being poor has completely been reversed. Aussie GDP per capita is 25% higher than Britain's and 20% higher than Germany's. An incredible transformation in the last quarter century.
We could learn a thing or two from our Antipodean cousins.
Lesson one have lots of natural resources the Chinese want to buy.
We were being told this morning that we have loads of wind to sell. Despite Westminster it is not particularly London centric either.
Alec Salmond was going to export renewable energy, but I don't think we ever learned how this would work. Little AA McDuracells, perhaps.
If I had the benefit of a few hundred million to invest batteries would take a large part of it. Someone is going to find new ways of storing power and make google look normal.
See this is the bit I don't understand - once we leave we aren't going to twiddle our thumbs for the next 30 years.
That is right - we will spend 30 years trying to get back to where we were pre-Brexit and trying to regain our reputation for competence that the current bunch of delusional ditherers has trashed. The world is not standing around looking in admiration at us plucky Brits. The world is looking at us and thinking either "How can we exploit this?" or "WTF are they doing?"
Free of the EU - the Uk could be a lot more nimble - should it choose a government which will enable that.
That is what you would like, an ideal scenario. What we will get is reality. Post Brexit we will soon know who our friends are.
But what the heck... you will soon rationalise this away and believe whatever you want. Just remember that it is unlikely that reality will share your idealism.
God knows how nations a fraction of our [economic] size like Australia, Canada etc cope outside the bosom of the EU.
I moved to Australia in 1992. Back then Australia was a poorer country than European nations. Per capita British GDP was 10% higher than Australia's. German GDP per capita was 50% higher.
Since then the EU has been sclerotic and failed while Australia has been nimble and signed free trade deals with lots of the world including the USA. But not including the sclerotic EU.
Today the idea of Aussies being poor has completely been reversed. Aussie GDP per capita is 25% higher than Britain's and 20% higher than Germany's. An incredible transformation in the last quarter century.
We could learn a thing or two from our Antipodean cousins.
Lesson one have lots of natural resources the Chinese want to buy.
While we have no agreement with any of them just the promise of discussions with one, Australia has a free trade agreement already in place with all three of those.
Any wonder why they've leapfrogged Europe economically?
Their economy looks nothing like ours: they are an exporter of primary products, coal, iron ore, etc.
If you want to look at a country outside the EU that has prospered, look at Switzerland. But don't use Australia, Canada or Norway - all of which have economies that are dominated by the export of commodities.
See this is the bit I don't understand - once we leave we aren't going to twiddle our thumbs for the next 30 years.
That is right - we will spend 30 years trying to get back to where we were pre-Brexit and trying to regain our reputation for competence that the current bunch of delusional ditherers has trashed. The world is not standing around looking in admiration at us plucky Brits. The world is looking at us and thinking either "How can we exploit this?" or "WTF are they doing?"
Free of the EU - the Uk could be a lot more nimble - should it choose a government which will enable that.
That is what you would like, an ideal scenario. What we will get is reality. Post Brexit we will soon know who our friends are.
But what the heck... you will soon rationalise this away and believe whatever you want. Just remember that it is unlikely that reality will share your idealism.
God knows how nations a fraction of our [economic] size like Australia, Canada etc cope outside the bosom of the EU.
I moved to Australia in 1992. Back then Australia was a poorer country than European nations. Per capita British GDP was 10% higher than Australia's. German GDP per capita was 50% higher.
Since then the EU has been sclerotic and failed while Australia has been nimble and signed free trade deals with lots of the world including the USA. But not including the sclerotic EU.
Today the idea of Aussies being poor has completely been reversed. Aussie GDP per capita is 25% higher than Britain's and 20% higher than Germany's. An incredible transformation in the last quarter century.
We could learn a thing or two from our Antipodean cousins.
What precisely would we learn from Australia? Dig a big hole in the middle of the country and ride a commodities boom?
More of their economy depends on importing Chinese (and other) millionaires than on raw materials export, I think. Thus far, Brexit is likely to make us a less attractive destination - and the possibility of a Corbyn government is unlikely to improve that...
After the Tories, Brexit and Corbyn in succession, the next generation faces a future of having to go to work on building sites and in restaurants in Poland. If the EU lets them in.
Does this mean a new series of Boys from the Black Stuff? Can't wait.
My favourite Boys from the Black Stuff fact is that the original Play for Today was written in 1978, therefore making it "TV's most complete dramatic response to the Thatcher Callaghan era"
I think many of the political commentators have been too quick to write off the SNP. Most recent Holyrood & WM polling is showing that the SNP is steadily recovering it's position. Given the Tories woes and SLAB's leadership shenanigans this recovery is most likely set to continue.
In terms of the Tories wishing for an SNP revival to keep SLAB at bay, it would be just as likely to sweep them away as well. With the SNP now solidly in 40% territory for WM & Holyrood, a return to +45% would see them back into sweeping the board territory in the FPTP seats.
One of SLAB's main issues which it needs to address to secure it's current support levels, is how to keep on side the 25-30% of it's supporters who favour independence. If they climb onboard the diehard Unionists bus - this segment of support is vulnerable to switching to the SNP.
I feel a bit sorry for Ruth who's continuing popularity appears to have become disengaged from falling SCON support. I'm sure she'll do the right thing for Scotland and fight for funds to regentrify Scotland's cities and boost the economy. However, the SNP will likely get the credit for any improvement in the Scottish economy. That's politics for you, a very unfair game.
The SNP are now polling well below Westminster 2015 and Holyrood 2016 levels, the fact they have recovered a fraction from their June disaster does not change that
Good post, as ever. My only further comment would be about the money, honey.
UK to make a generous offer/gesture of, say, £50bn with a view of settling at £60bn (or whatever), spread over several years to smooth the exit. We are talking aboutr a generational change here and this is but a drop in the ocean compared with the decades to come of EU-free government.
Would the headbangers have a conniption fit? Of course. Is there just about anything short of building a wall along the south coast that they wouldn't have such a fit over? Nope.
On this I disagree. Again, I think Theresa May has got this half-right. The government should be giving warm words about respecting our obligations and not actually offering a sou until the EU starts focussing on the longterm relationship with Britain that it wants. The government has offered tepid words.
we want this problem to go away. The only way I can see us breaking the deadlock that we appear to be in is to throw money at it. Would they grin and ask for more? Perhaps. Is it iniquitous? Probably. But again, to echo the words of a friend of mine then their marriage ended, for any divorce to work both sides have to be unnecessarily generous.
I tend to agree. It's like paying a troublesome employee to go away. Nobody likes it, but it's less aggravating than the alternative.
And quite likely to turn out to be important after all, and to end up coming back as a consultant getting paid more than they were before and finally ending up back on the payroll at a higher salary.
See this is the bit I don't understand - once we leave we aren't going to twiddle our thumbs for the next 30 years.
That is right - we will spend 30 years trying to get back to where we were pre-Brexit and trying to regain our reputation for competence that the current bunch of delusional ditherers has trashed. The world is not standing around looking in admiration at us plucky Brits. The world is looking at us and thinking either "How can we exploit this?" or "WTF are they doing?"
Free of the EU - the Uk could be a lot more nimble - should it choose a government which will enable that.
That is what you would like, an ideal scenario. What we will get is reality. Post Brexit we will soon know who our friends are.
But what the heck... you will soon rationalise this away and believe whatever you want. Just remember that it is unlikely that reality will share your idealism.
God knows how nations a fraction of our [economic] size like Australia, Canada etc cope outside the bosom of the EU.
I moved to Australia in 1992. Back then Australia was a poorer country than European nations. Per capita British GDP was 10% higher than Australia's. German GDP per capita was 50% higher.
Since then the EU has been sclerotic and failed while Australia has been nimble and signed free trade deals with lots of the world including the USA. But not including the sclerotic EU.
Today the idea of Aussies being poor has completely been reversed. Aussie GDP per capita is 25% higher than Britain's and 20% higher than Germany's. An incredible transformation in the last quarter century.
We could learn a thing or two from our Antipodean cousins.
Australia wasn't considered a "poor country" in 1992. Brits have been emigrating out there for a better life for the best part of a century.
I didn't say "poor country", I said "poorer" which it was. Better weather, but poorer economy. Now they have a better economy and better weather.
Iron ore is a quarter of Australia's exports. Its price in 1992 was $14/tonne. It's now around $60. Australian Thermal Coal has doubled in price in that time. And gold (8% of exports) has increased far, far more.
Edit: Australian thermal coal has in fact trebled in price. And, of course, Australia has also become a massive exporter of natural gas in the period. And we haven't even started on the price moves in some of the agricultural commodities Australia exports.
See this is the bit I don't understand - once we leave we aren't going to twiddle our thumbs for the next 30 years.
That is right - we will spend 30 years trying to get back to where we were pre-Brexit and trying to regain our reputation for competence that the current bunch of delusional ditherers has trashed. The world is not standing around looking in admiration at us plucky Brits. The world is looking at us and thinking either "How can we exploit this?" or "WTF are they doing?"
Free of the EU - the Uk could be a lot more nimble - should it choose a government which will enable that.
That is what you would like, an ideal scenario. What we will get is reality. Post Brexit we will soon know who our friends are.
But what the heck... you will soon rationalise this away and believe whatever you want. Just remember that it is unlikely that reality will share your idealism.
God knows how nations a fraction of our [economic] size like Australia, Canada etc cope outside the bosom of the EU.
I moved to Australia in 1992. Back then Australia was a poorer country than European nations. Per capita British GDP was 10% higher than Australia's. German GDP per capita was 50% higher.
Since then the EU has been sclerotic and failed while Australia has been nimble and signed free trade deals with lots of the world including the USA. But not including the sclerotic EU.
Today the idea of Aussies being poor has completely been reversed. Aussie GDP per capita is 25% higher than Britain's and 20% higher than Germany's. An incredible transformation in the last quarter century.
We could learn a thing or two from our Antipodean cousins.
Lesson one have lots of natural resources the Chinese want to buy.
See this is the bit I don't understand - once we leave we aren't going to twiddle our thumbs for the next 30 years.
That is right - we will spend 30 years trying to get back to where we were pre-Brexit and trying to regain our reputation for competence that the current bunch of delusional ditherers has trashed. The world is not standing around looking in admiration at us plucky Brits. The world is looking at us and thinking either "How can we exploit this?" or "WTF are they doing?"
Free of the EU - the Uk could be a lot more nimble - should it choose a government which will enable that.
That is what you would like, an ideal scenario. What we will get is reality. Post Brexit we will soon know who our friends are.
But what the heck... you will soon rationalise this away and believe whatever you want. Just remember that it is unlikely that reality will share your idealism.
God knows how nations a fraction of our [economic] size like Australia, Canada etc cope outside the bosom of the EU.
I moved to Australia in 1992. Back then Australia was a poorer country than European nations. Per capita British GDP was 10% higher than Australia's. German GDP per capita was 50% higher.
Since then the EU has been sclerotic and failed while Australia has been nimble and signed free trade deals with lots of the world including the USA. But not including the sclerotic EU.
Today the idea of Aussies being poor has completely been reversed. Aussie GDP per capita is 25% higher than Britain's and 20% higher than Germany's. An incredible transformation in the last quarter century.
We could learn a thing or two from our Antipodean cousins.
Australia wasn't considered a "poor country" in 1992. Brits have been emigrating out there for a better life for the best part of a century.
I didn't say "poor country", I said "poorer" which it was. Better weather, but poorer economy. Now they have a better economy and better weather.
Iron ore is a quarter of Australia's exports. Its price in 1992 was $14/tonne. It's now around $60. Australian Thermal Coal has doubled in price in that time. And gold (8% of exports) has increased far, far more.
Just as well we kept a hold of our reserves then, eh?
See this is the bit I don't understand - once we leave we aren't going to twiddle our thumbs for the next 30 years.
That is right - we will spend 30 years trying to get back to where we were pre-Brexit and trying to regain our reputation for competence that the current bunch of delusional ditherers has trashed. The world is not standing around looking in admiration at us plucky Brits. The world is looking at us and thinking either "How can we exploit this?" or "WTF are they doing?"
Free of the EU - the Uk could be a lot more nimble - should it choose a government which will enable that.
That is what you would like, an ideal scenario. What we will get is reality. Post Brexit we will soon know who our friends are.
But what the heck... you will soon rationalise this away and believe whatever you want. Just remember that it is unlikely that reality will share your idealism.
God knows how nations a fraction of our [economic] size like Australia, Canada etc cope outside the bosom of the EU.
I moved to Australia in 1992. Back then Australia was a poorer country than European nations. Per capita British GDP was 10% higher than Australia's. German GDP per capita was 50% higher.
Since then the EU has been sclerotic and failed while Australia has been nimble and signed free trade deals with lots of the world including the USA. But not including the sclerotic EU.
Today the idea of Aussies being poor has completely been reversed. Aussie GDP per capita is 25% higher than Britain's and 20% higher than Germany's. An incredible transformation in the last quarter century.
We could learn a thing or two from our Antipodean cousins.
Australia wasn't considered a "poor country" in 1992. Brits have been emigrating out there for a better life for the best part of a century.
I didn't say "poor country", I said "poorer" which it was. Better weather, but poorer economy. Now they have a better economy and better weather.
Iron ore is a quarter of Australia's exports. Its price in 1992 was $14/tonne. It's now around $60. Australian Thermal Coal has doubled in price in that time. And gold (8% of exports) has increased far, far more.
Just as well we kept a hold of our reserves then, eh?
Are you referring to Gordon squandering our gold reserves or Maggie squandering our coal reserves?
Can someone explain to me why the people who were so obsessed with "the sovereignty of the British Parliament" are apparenly so relaxed about the government ignoring Parliament's sovereign decision on Universal Credit?
Leave voters and Tory supporters aren't quite the same thing,
And in any case an opposition day motion isn't legislation - it doesn't alter primary or secondary legislation.
The problem of course with universal credit is not the idea - it's just the poor implementation. You could perhaps make the same about Brexit so far! The current benefits system is too complicated - you could have a degree in it - and acts to disincentivise work. Changing it isn't easy - but it needs to be done to make the system simpler for claimants and to administer.
PS Parliament would be sovereign post a hard Brexit - if we elect a Corbyn led government we will actually be able to get his brand of full on socialism. Possibly why Corbyn and Momentum are more relaxed about Brexit than the Blairites.
.... We could learn a thing or two from our Antipodean cousins.
Yes we could. One of the things we could learn is not to ignore/irritate our biggest trading partners right on our doorstep. Australia's biggest trading partners are China, Japan, Singapore, Korea, New Zealand and the USA
The UK does more trade with Belgium than it does with Australia, NZ and Canada combined
So those are their close neighbours are they? So we should be looking at a similar distance as close neighbours right?
Distance from Australia to China: 7,475 km Distance from UK to China: 7,775 km
Distance from Australia to USA: 15,175 km Distance from UK to USA: 6,826 km
Interesting to note what is close in your eyes seems quite variable. Why are Aus close to USA and China but we're not?
Measuring distance from the center of one very large country to the center of another very large country is a bit nawty.
Indeed it is, but it's a reasonable approximation especially given if you don't do that I thought I'd be accused of exaggerating the distance. Since Sydney, Canberra or Melbourne etc are on the South-East coast of Australia and measuring from there would make the distances considerably bigger.
London to New York 5,585 km Sydney to New York 15,979 km.
Yet Australia has a trade agreement with its "close neighbour" the USA while we don't.
I'm sorry to keep replying to you Philip.
But. It's very easy for countries whose economies are complementary to enter into free trade agreements. If the US is a big manufacturer of steel (it is), but has limited iron ore reserves, then it makes a huge amount of sense for it to enter into an FTA with a country with lots of iron ore: especially one that has practically no indigenous car industry and who can buy the ultimate product of that iron ore.
The USA has very few free trade agreements. Off the top of my head, it has the NAFTA countries (Mexico and Canada), Australia, Israel and South Korea.
The EU has Mexico, Canada, Israel and South Korea. So, there is only one country that the US has an FTA with that the EU does not (Australia).
When the US enters into free trade agreements, it has tended to make them very one sided. The ISDS tribunals which are NAFTA's equivalent of the ECJ, must always have two of their three judges from the US. They operate in secrecy and they have overturned laws such as Quebec's requiring the labeling of GMOs. I would be staggered if we could enter into an FTA with them that did not result in us having to accept all GM crops, and not being allowed to label them as such.
See this is the bit I don't understand - once we leave we aren't going to twiddle our thumbs for the next 30 years.
That is right - we will spend 30 years trying to get back to where we were pre-Brexit and trying to regain our reputation for competence that the current bunch of delusional ditherers has trashed. The world is not standing around looking in admiration at us plucky Brits. The world is looking at us and thinking either "How can we exploit this?" or "WTF are they doing?"
Free of the EU - the Uk could be a lot more nimble - should it choose a government which will enable that.
That is what you would like, an ideal scenario. What we will get is reality. Post Brexit we will soon know who our friends are.
But what the heck... you will soon rationalise this away and believe whatever you want. Just remember that it is unlikely that reality will share your idealism.
God knows how nations a fraction of our [economic] size like Australia, Canada etc cope outside the bosom of the EU.
I moved to Australia in 1992. Back then Australia was a poorer country than European nations. Per capita British GDP was 10% higher than Australia's. German GDP per capita was 50% higher.
Since then the EU has been sclerotic and failed while Australia has been nimble and signed free trade deals with lots of the world including the USA. But not including the sclerotic EU.
Today the idea of Aussies being poor has completely been reversed. Aussie GDP per capita is 25% higher than Britain's and 20% higher than Germany's. An incredible transformation in the last quarter century.
We could learn a thing or two from our Antipodean cousins.
Australia wasn't considered a "poor country" in 1992. Brits have been emigrating out there for a better life for the best part of a century.
I didn't say "poor country", I said "poorer" which it was. Better weather, but poorer economy. Now they have a better economy and better weather.
Iron ore is a quarter of Australia's exports. Its price in 1992 was $14/tonne. It's now around $60. Australian Thermal Coal has doubled in price in that time. And gold (8% of exports) has increased far, far more.
Just as well we kept a hold of our reserves then, eh?
Can someone explain to me why the people who were so obsessed with "the sovereignty of the British Parliament" are apparenly so relaxed about the government ignoring Parliament's sovereign decision on Universal Credit?
You make two fundamental mistakes. The first is to believe that Leave supporters are all Tory voters and the second is to believe that, even if they are Tory voters, they agree with the at the Government is behaving, either over UC or over the way they are handling Brexit.
May is one of the worst PMs I have known as an adult. I reserve judgement until she is gone over whether she is worse than Blair and Brown but even if she were not than would only be because she has not started a war that resulted in the deaths of tens or hundreds of thousands of people.
I think many of the political commentators have been too quick to write off the SNP. Most recent Holyrood & WM polling is showing that the SNP is steadily recovering it's position. Given the Tories woes and SLAB's leadership shenanigans this recovery is most likely set to continue.
In terms of the Tories wishing for an SNP revival to keep SLAB at bay, it would be just as likely to sweep them away as well. With the SNP now solidly in 40% territory for WM & Holyrood, a return to +45% would see them back into sweeping the board territory in the FPTP seats.
One of SLAB's main issues which it needs to address to secure it's current support levels, is how to keep on side the 25-30% of it's supporters who favour independence. If they climb onboard the diehard Unionists bus - this segment of support is vulnerable to switching to the SNP.
I feel a bit sorry for Ruth who's continuing popularity appears to have become disengaged from falling SCON support. I'm sure she'll do the right thing for Scotland and fight for funds to regentrify Scotland's cities and boost the economy. However, the SNP will likely get the credit for any improvement in the Scottish economy. That's politics for you, a very unfair game.
The SNP are now polling well below Westminster 2015 and Holyrood 2016 levels, the fact they have recovered a fraction from their June disaster does not change that
See this is the bit I don't understand - once we leave we aren't going to twiddle our thumbs for the next 30 years.
That is right - we will spend 30 years trying to get back to where we were pre-Brexit and trying to regain our reputation for competence that the current bunch of delusional ditherers has trashed. The world is not standing around looking in admiration at us plucky Brits. The world is looking at us and thinking either "How can we exploit this?" or "WTF are they doing?"
Free of the EU - the Uk could be a lot more nimble - should it choose a government which will enable that.
That is what you would like, an ideal scenario. What we will get is reality. Post Brexit we will soon know who our friends are.
But what the heck... you will soon rationalise this away and believe whatever you want. Just remember that it is unlikely that reality will share your idealism.
God knows how nations a fraction of our [economic] size like Australia, Canada etc cope outside the bosom of the EU.
I moved to Australia in 1992. Back then Australia was a poorer country than European nations. Per capita British GDP was 10% higher than Australia's. German GDP per capita was 50% higher.
Since then the EU has been sclerotic and failed while Australia has been nimble and signed free trade deals with lots of the world including the USA. But not including the sclerotic EU.
Today the idea of Aussies being poor has completely been reversed. Aussie GDP per capita is 25% higher than Britain's and 20% higher than Germany's. An incredible transformation in the last quarter century.
We could learn a thing or two from our Antipodean cousins.
Lesson one have lots of natural resources the Chinese want to buy.
That is solely the economic output of mining, and does not include the services required to produce them, oil & gas, agricultural commodities, nor the gross capital formation associated with mining and oil & gas projects.
In total, of the 60% of Australian GDP that is private sector, just under a third is commodity related.
Are you referring to Gordon squandering our gold reserves or Maggie squandering our coal reserves?
You cannot squander coal reserves if you do not get them out of the ground. They are still there waiting for use at some future date if we need them. Unlike our gold reserves.
When the gardening bug strikes I have even been known to garden in high heels.
“Gardening in High Heels” - now there’s a book title!
Was there a reason for that? Or was it an emergency gardening situation?
Did you have a matching bag/clutch?
I was in the garden, waiting for a handsome young man to come and see me about something or other, saw something that needed doing and got on with it without changing my shoes. It was summer so no harm was done to the shoes. (Orange suede with kitten heels. Very striking and comfortable.)
The only emergency I ever face in the garden is trying to get rid of the bloody squirrel that digs up my bulbs........
I quite like the long tailed tree rats myself, but then my garden has nothing that I worry about. I do have several foxes that pass through and one who sleeps under the conifer on wet mornings
I have foxes too. There’s a burrow 2 gardens down. A nuisance since one of them stole one of my shoes left on the veranda and a few months back one was chased into the house or got in somehow, made it into the first floor bathroom and proceeded to leave an almightly mess everywhere before finally escaping. And all at 3 am!
Squirrels are, I’m afraid, the enemy. Second only to slugs and snails.
If I could only train my dog or cats to get rid of them........
You need to borrow my dog, Cyclefree. (See avatar for pic.) Her tally is four to date, but would be a lot higher if I didn't warn the little furry creatures whenever I can. I am squeamish, and cannot cope with their sad little faces when she drops them at my feet.
Incidentally, can I get into trouble for allowing her off the lead in public parks if she cannot be trusted not to persecute the squirrel population? Not sure of the law on that one.
You named your dog "Cyclefree"? Wow. That's true love.
Are you referring to Gordon squandering our gold reserves or Maggie squandering our coal reserves?
You cannot squander coal reserves if you do not get them out of the ground. They are still there waiting for use at some future date if we need them. Unlike our gold reserves.
Have you looked at in situ gasification? Clearly not economically viable at current gas prices, but if there was ever a major energy crunch, it could be very interesting. (And much cheaper and better for the environment than deep mining and burning coal.)
Are you referring to Gordon squandering our gold reserves or Maggie squandering our coal reserves?
You cannot squander coal reserves if you do not get them out of the ground. They are still there waiting for use at some future date if we need them. Unlike our gold reserves.
Yes I know, it was a poor joke.
Though it's harder and more costly to re-access reserves once the workings have flooded, and sometimes near impossible.
The pit in my home village closed after the miners strike in 1985 and, legend has it, was flooded with surplus milk from the milk marketing board....a double waste.
When the gardening bug strikes I have even been known to garden in high heels.
“Gardening in High Heels” - now there’s a book title!
Was there a reason for that? Or was it an emergency gardening situation?
Did you have a matching bag/clutch?
I was in the garden, waiting for a handsome young man to come and see me about something or other, saw something that needed doing and got on with it without changing my shoes. It was summer so no harm was done to the shoes. (Orange suede with kitten heels. Very striking and comfortable.)
The only emergency I ever face in the garden is trying to get rid of the bloody squirrel that digs up my bulbs........
I quite like the long tailed tree rats myself, but then my garden has nothing that I worry about. I do have several foxes that pass through and one who sleeps under the conifer on wet mornings
I have foxes too. There’s a burrow 2 gardens down. A nuisance since one of them stole one of my shoes left on the veranda and a few months back one was chased into the house or got in somehow, made it into the first floor bathroom and proceeded to leave an almightly mess everywhere before finally escaping. And all at 3 am!
Squirrels are, I’m afraid, the enemy. Second only to slugs and snails.
If I could only train my dog or cats to get rid of them........
You need to borrow my dog, Cyclefree. (See avatar for pic.) Her tally is four to date, but would be a lot higher if I didn't warn the little furry creatures whenever I can. I am squeamish, and cannot cope with their sad little faces when she drops them at my feet.
Incidentally, can I get into trouble for allowing her off the lead in public parks if she cannot be trusted not to persecute the squirrel population? Not sure of the law on that one.
You named your dog "Cyclefree"? Wow. That's true love.
Comments
I can’t for reasons of confidentiality give you specific examples. But, for instance, too many of the supposed benefits of mergers turn out to be non-existent or hugely outweighed by the costs.
I will start writing that book.......
I think the value created and destroyed and for whom in each case wrt mergers, especially marquee ones, has been suspect ever since Daimler-Chrysler and before.
Everyone knows it, but it doesn't stop Company A wanting to buy Company B against all advice sometimes. Blame the principals, not the IBs all the time.
And yes get writing. As for audiences, the more the merrier for whatever reason as long as they buy it (there, we are sounding like investment bankers now...)
Anyway... time to be doing other things.
Byyeeee!!!!!
I have seen too much bullshit. I have seen too much of the damage it causes. And I think, naive fool that I am, that finance should be better than this.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mining_in_Australia#Economics
And they don't have the City of London.
Incidentally, can I get into trouble for allowing her off the lead in public parks if she cannot be trusted not to persecute the squirrel population? Not sure of the law on that one.
Their economy looks nothing like ours: they are an exporter of primary products, coal, iron ore, etc.
If you want to look at a country outside the EU that has prospered, look at Switzerland. But don't use Australia, Canada or Norway - all of which have economies that are dominated by the export of commodities.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/918813102682071040
Edit: Australian thermal coal has in fact trebled in price. And, of course, Australia has also become a massive exporter of natural gas in the period. And we haven't even started on the price moves in some of the agricultural commodities Australia exports.
And in any case an opposition day motion isn't legislation - it doesn't alter primary or secondary legislation.
The problem of course with universal credit is not the idea - it's just the poor implementation. You could perhaps make the same about Brexit so far! The current benefits system is too complicated - you could have a degree in it - and acts to disincentivise work. Changing it isn't easy - but it needs to be done to make the system simpler for claimants and to administer.
PS Parliament would be sovereign post a hard Brexit - if we elect a Corbyn led government we will actually be able to get his brand of full on socialism. Possibly why Corbyn and Momentum are more relaxed about Brexit than the Blairites.
But. It's very easy for countries whose economies are complementary to enter into free trade agreements. If the US is a big manufacturer of steel (it is), but has limited iron ore reserves, then it makes a huge amount of sense for it to enter into an FTA with a country with lots of iron ore: especially one that has practically no indigenous car industry and who can buy the ultimate product of that iron ore.
The USA has very few free trade agreements. Off the top of my head, it has the NAFTA countries (Mexico and Canada), Australia, Israel and South Korea.
The EU has Mexico, Canada, Israel and South Korea. So, there is only one country that the US has an FTA with that the EU does not (Australia).
When the US enters into free trade agreements, it has tended to make them very one sided. The ISDS tribunals which are NAFTA's equivalent of the ECJ, must always have two of their three judges from the US. They operate in secrecy and they have overturned laws such as Quebec's requiring the labeling of GMOs. I would be staggered if we could enter into an FTA with them that did not result in us having to accept all GM crops, and not being allowed to label them as such.
May is one of the worst PMs I have known as an adult. I reserve judgement until she is gone over whether she is worse than Blair and Brown but even if she were not than would only be because she has not started a war that resulted in the deaths of tens or hundreds of thousands of people.
That is solely the economic output of mining, and does not include the services required to produce them, oil & gas, agricultural commodities, nor the gross capital formation associated with mining and oil & gas projects.
In total, of the 60% of Australian GDP that is private sector, just under a third is commodity related.
Though it's harder and more costly to re-access reserves once the workings have flooded, and sometimes near impossible.
The pit in my home village closed after the miners strike in 1985 and, legend has it, was flooded with surplus milk from the milk marketing board....a double waste.