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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The new election reality: The Tories need the SNP to impede LA

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,146
    Cyclefree said:

    I have foxes too. There’s a burrow 2 gardens down. A nuisance since one of them stole one of my shoes left on the veranda and a few months back one was chased into the house or got in somehow, made it into the first floor bathroom and proceeded to leave an almightly mess everywhere before finally escaping. And all at 3 am!

    Squirrels are, I’m afraid, the enemy. Second only to slugs and snails.

    If I could only train my dog or cats to get rid of them........
    Though they can be adorable. Watching fox cubs emerge at dusk to play on your back lawn is rather magical.
  • God knows how nations a fraction of our [economic] size like Australia, Canada etc cope outside the bosom of the EU.

    I moved to Australia in 1992. Back then Australia was a poorer country than European nations. Per capita British GDP was 10% higher than Australia's. German GDP per capita was 50% higher.

    Since then the EU has been sclerotic and failed while Australia has been nimble and signed free trade deals with lots of the world including the USA. But not including the sclerotic EU.

    Today the idea of Aussies being poor has completely been reversed. Aussie GDP per capita is 25% higher than Britain's and 20% higher than Germany's. An incredible transformation in the last quarter century.

    We could learn a thing or two from our Antipodean cousins.

    Lesson one have lots of natural resources the Chinese want to buy.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647
    edited October 2017
    @Cyclefree

    I can’t for reasons of confidentiality give you specific examples. But, for instance, too many of the supposed benefits of mergers turn out to be non-existent or hugely outweighed by the costs.

    I will start writing that book....... :) (Mind you, with that sort of title who knows what sort of audience it might get.......)


    I think the value created and destroyed and for whom in each case wrt mergers, especially marquee ones, has been suspect ever since Daimler-Chrysler and before.

    Everyone knows it, but it doesn't stop Company A wanting to buy Company B against all advice sometimes. Blame the principals, not the IBs all the time.

    And yes get writing. As for audiences, the more the merrier for whatever reason as long as they buy it (there, we are sounding like investment bankers now...)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,006

    He (or his subconscious) knew what he meant.

    'a warm, humorous but ultimately tragic look at the way economics affect ordinary people'
    That's very gracious. Exactly what I was thinking.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Cyclefree said:

    I have foxes too. There’s a burrow 2 gardens down. A nuisance since one of them stole one of my shoes left on the veranda and a few months back one was chased into the house or got in somehow, made it into the first floor bathroom and proceeded to leave an almightly mess everywhere before finally escaping. And all at 3 am!

    Squirrels are, I’m afraid, the enemy. Second only to slugs and snails.

    If I could only train my dog or cats to get rid of them........

    We also have a fox burrow in a neighbouring garden, but it seems that the foxes come and go. Some years the burrow is not used. The first time I heard a fox cry at 11pm I thought someone was being attacked.

    Anyway... time to be doing other things.

    Byyeeee!!!!!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,609
    TOPPING said:

    Yes that was pretty bad - but arguably there was a caveat emptor element in there also. People wanted to believe that it was too good to be true.

    But @Cyclefree's post reads as though day in day out the IBs are defrauding, lying, cheating, etc.
    No - most bankers don’t defraud. But bullshit is not the same as criminal behaviour. And bullshit can be damaging to what is essential in finance - trust.

    I have seen too much bullshit. I have seen too much of the damage it causes. And I think, naive fool that I am, that finance should be better than this.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,146

    Lesson one have lots of natural resources the Chinese want to buy.

    5.6% of GDP;
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mining_in_Australia#Economics
    And they don't have the City of London.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,006

    Lesson one have lots of natural resources the Chinese want to buy.

    We were being told this morning that we have loads of wind to sell. Despite Westminster it is not particularly London centric either.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,610
    edited October 2017
    Cyclefree said:

    I have foxes too. There’s a burrow 2 gardens down. A nuisance since one of them stole one of my shoes left on the veranda and a few months back one was chased into the house or got in somehow, made it into the first floor bathroom and proceeded to leave an almightly mess everywhere before finally escaping. And all at 3 am!

    Squirrels are, I’m afraid, the enemy. Second only to slugs and snails.

    If I could only train my dog or cats to get rid of them........
    You need to borrow my dog, Cyclefree. (See avatar for pic.) Her tally is four to date, but would be a lot higher if I didn't warn the little furry creatures whenever I can. I am squeamish, and cannot cope with their sad little faces when she drops them at my feet.

    Incidentally, can I get into trouble for allowing her off the lead in public parks if she cannot be trusted not to persecute the squirrel population? Not sure of the law on that one.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Danny565 said:

    Can someone explain to me why the people who were so obsessed with "the sovereignty of the British Parliament" are apparenly so relaxed about the government ignoring Parliament's sovereign decision on Universal Credit?

    Not that I care, but actually what is sovereign is the Queen in Parliament, and an opposition day vote is a million miles away from counting as a "sovereign decision" by anyone or thing. Otherwise, good point.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    DavidL said:

    We were being told this morning that we have loads of wind to sell. Despite Westminster it is not particularly London centric either.
    Alec Salmond was going to export renewable energy, but I don't think we ever learned how this would work. Little AA McDuracells, perhaps.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,006
    Cyclefree said:

    No - most bankers don’t defraud. But bullshit is not the same as criminal behaviour. And bullshit can be damaging to what is essential in finance - trust.

    I have seen too much bullshit. I have seen too much of the damage it causes. And I think, naive fool that I am, that finance should be better than this.
    The mis-selling of IRSAs by "treasury" bankers to small and medium sized businesses over the last 10 years is a disgrace that has caused huge economic damage and yet the Banks seem largely to be getting away with it with the contrivance of the Courts who apply a "no advice" clause in a contract strictly
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    Interesting that Anas is so keen to distance himself from Bettertogether, despite copious evidence to the contrary. Perhaps he's showing hitherto unrevealed political smarts.

    https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/920945358347358209

    Brexit & Bettertogether vying for the top spot in the 'wouldn't touch it with your shitty stick' charts.
    Next he'll be invoking Keir Hardie and calling for "Home Rule"
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,006
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Alec Salmond was going to export renewable energy, but I don't think we ever learned how this would work. Little AA McDuracells, perhaps.
    If I had the benefit of a few hundred million to invest batteries would take a large part of it. Someone is going to find new ways of storing power and make google look normal.
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617
    Nigelb said:

    5.6% of GDP;
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mining_in_Australia#Economics
    And they don't have the City of London.
    A meaningless statistic. Natural resources account for a large proportion of Australia's trade with China.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,128

    While we have no agreement with any of them just the promise of discussions with one, Australia has a free trade agreement already in place with all three of those.

    Any wonder why they've leapfrogged Europe economically?

    http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/aus/

    Their economy looks nothing like ours: they are an exporter of primary products, coal, iron ore, etc.

    If you want to look at a country outside the EU that has prospered, look at Switzerland. But don't use Australia, Canada or Norway - all of which have economies that are dominated by the export of commodities.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    edited October 2017
    DavidL said:

    Does this mean a new series of Boys from the Black Stuff? Can't wait.
    My favourite Boys from the Black Stuff fact is that the original Play for Today was written in 1978, therefore making it "TV's most complete dramatic response to the Thatcher Callaghan era"

  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    HYUFD said:

    The SNP are now polling well below Westminster 2015 and Holyrood 2016 levels, the fact they have recovered a fraction from their June disaster does not change that
    A fraction?
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/918813102682071040
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Sean_F said:

    I tend to agree. It's like paying a troublesome employee to go away. Nobody likes it, but it's less aggravating than the alternative.
    And quite likely to turn out to be important after all, and to end up coming back as a consultant getting paid more than they were before and finally ending up back on the payroll at a higher salary.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,128
    edited October 2017

    I didn't say "poor country", I said "poorer" which it was. Better weather, but poorer economy. Now they have a better economy and better weather.
    Iron ore is a quarter of Australia's exports. Its price in 1992 was $14/tonne. It's now around $60. Australian Thermal Coal has doubled in price in that time. And gold (8% of exports) has increased far, far more.

    Edit: Australian thermal coal has in fact trebled in price. And, of course, Australia has also become a massive exporter of natural gas in the period. And we haven't even started on the price moves in some of the agricultural commodities Australia exports.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,146
    HHemmelig said:

    A meaningless statistic. Natural resources account for a large proportion of Australia's trade with China.
    Given how much it has fallen as a percentage of GDP in the last decade, it's far from meaningless.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,006
    rcs1000 said:

    Iron ore is a quarter of Australia's exports. Its price in 1992 was $14/tonne. It's now around $60. Australian Thermal Coal has doubled in price in that time. And gold (8% of exports) has increased far, far more.
    Just as well we kept a hold of our reserves then, eh?

  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617
    DavidL said:

    Just as well we kept a hold of our reserves then, eh?

    Are you referring to Gordon squandering our gold reserves or Maggie squandering our coal reserves?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited October 2017
    Danny565 said:

    Can someone explain to me why the people who were so obsessed with "the sovereignty of the British Parliament" are apparenly so relaxed about the government ignoring Parliament's sovereign decision on Universal Credit?

    Leave voters and Tory supporters aren't quite the same thing,

    And in any case an opposition day motion isn't legislation - it doesn't alter primary or secondary legislation.

    The problem of course with universal credit is not the idea - it's just the poor implementation. You could perhaps make the same about Brexit so far! The current benefits system is too complicated - you could have a degree in it - and acts to disincentivise work. Changing it isn't easy - but it needs to be done to make the system simpler for claimants and to administer.

    PS Parliament would be sovereign post a hard Brexit - if we elect a Corbyn led government we will actually be able to get his brand of full on socialism. Possibly why Corbyn and Momentum are more relaxed about Brexit than the Blairites.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,128

    Indeed it is, but it's a reasonable approximation especially given if you don't do that I thought I'd be accused of exaggerating the distance. Since Sydney, Canberra or Melbourne etc are on the South-East coast of Australia and measuring from there would make the distances considerably bigger.

    London to New York 5,585 km
    Sydney to New York 15,979 km.

    Yet Australia has a trade agreement with its "close neighbour" the USA while we don't.
    I'm sorry to keep replying to you Philip.

    But. It's very easy for countries whose economies are complementary to enter into free trade agreements. If the US is a big manufacturer of steel (it is), but has limited iron ore reserves, then it makes a huge amount of sense for it to enter into an FTA with a country with lots of iron ore: especially one that has practically no indigenous car industry and who can buy the ultimate product of that iron ore.

    The USA has very few free trade agreements. Off the top of my head, it has the NAFTA countries (Mexico and Canada), Australia, Israel and South Korea.

    The EU has Mexico, Canada, Israel and South Korea. So, there is only one country that the US has an FTA with that the EU does not (Australia).

    When the US enters into free trade agreements, it has tended to make them very one sided. The ISDS tribunals which are NAFTA's equivalent of the ECJ, must always have two of their three judges from the US. They operate in secrecy and they have overturned laws such as Quebec's requiring the labeling of GMOs. I would be staggered if we could enter into an FTA with them that did not result in us having to accept all GM crops, and not being allowed to label them as such.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,128
    edited October 2017
    DavidL said:

    Just as well we kept a hold of our reserves then, eh?

    You couldn't resist that, could you? :smile:
  • Danny565 said:

    Can someone explain to me why the people who were so obsessed with "the sovereignty of the British Parliament" are apparenly so relaxed about the government ignoring Parliament's sovereign decision on Universal Credit?

    You make two fundamental mistakes. The first is to believe that Leave supporters are all Tory voters and the second is to believe that, even if they are Tory voters, they agree with the at the Government is behaving, either over UC or over the way they are handling Brexit.

    May is one of the worst PMs I have known as an adult. I reserve judgement until she is gone over whether she is worse than Blair and Brown but even if she were not than would only be because she has not started a war that resulted in the deaths of tens or hundreds of thousands of people.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,635
    calum said:

    A fraction?
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/918813102682071040
    Still miles behind what they got in 2015 and 2016
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,128
    Nigelb said:

    5.6% of GDP;
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mining_in_Australia#Economics
    And they don't have the City of London.
    That number is deeply misleading.

    That is solely the economic output of mining, and does not include the services required to produce them, oil & gas, agricultural commodities, nor the gross capital formation associated with mining and oil & gas projects.

    In total, of the 60% of Australian GDP that is private sector, just under a third is commodity related.
  • HHemmelig said:

    Are you referring to Gordon squandering our gold reserves or Maggie squandering our coal reserves?

    You cannot squander coal reserves if you do not get them out of the ground. They are still there waiting for use at some future date if we need them. Unlike our gold reserves.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,128
    edited October 2017

    You need to borrow my dog, Cyclefree. (See avatar for pic.) Her tally is four to date, but would be a lot higher if I didn't warn the little furry creatures whenever I can. I am squeamish, and cannot cope with their sad little faces when she drops them at my feet.

    Incidentally, can I get into trouble for allowing her off the lead in public parks if she cannot be trusted not to persecute the squirrel population? Not sure of the law on that one.
    You named your dog "Cyclefree"? Wow. That's true love.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,128

    You cannot squander coal reserves if you do not get them out of the ground. They are still there waiting for use at some future date if we need them. Unlike our gold reserves.
    Have you looked at in situ gasification? Clearly not economically viable at current gas prices, but if there was ever a major energy crunch, it could be very interesting. (And much cheaper and better for the environment than deep mining and burning coal.)
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617

    You cannot squander coal reserves if you do not get them out of the ground. They are still there waiting for use at some future date if we need them. Unlike our gold reserves.
    Yes I know, it was a poor joke.

    Though it's harder and more costly to re-access reserves once the workings have flooded, and sometimes near impossible.

    The pit in my home village closed after the miners strike in 1985 and, legend has it, was flooded with surplus milk from the milk marketing board....a double waste.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,609
    rcs1000 said:

    You named your dog "Cyclefree"? Wow. That's true love.
    And entirely reasonable , of course........
This discussion has been closed.