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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Newly published Survation poll sees LAB up 2 to a 6 point lead
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Newly published Survation poll sees LAB up 2 to a 6 point lead
Survation, the pollsters that was widely, and as it turned out unfairly, criticised in the run-up to GE2017 because it had the smallest CON leads has a new voting poll it. Its relatively old with its fieldwork being carried out in the week of the Tory conference when the blue team were making the headlines for all sorts of reason. The splits are CON 38%, LAB 44%, and LD 7%.
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Given the present shambles the solidity of support for the government is remarkable.
Take Leave Of Senses 49
Firstly, if that had been the thinking then the Tories would have suffered in Scotland in 1992. In fact, Major gained a seat north of the border. The Poll Tax was a live issue in 1992, it wasn't in 1987 or in 1997, when the decline happened.
Secondly, Scotland was never used as a guinea pig, though given that it was introduced in Scotland first, it's easy to see why the myth has become established. However, the difference was due primarily to the ease of introducing the two pieces of legislation and the determination of George Younger and Malcolm Rifkind to go into the 1987 election with the achievement of having already abolished the Rates, which were themselves unpopular (though not as unpopular as the Poll Tax would become). Given that there was no time to make meaningful feedback from the one introduction to the other, it couldn't have been a pilot exercise.
But when the tower collapses people will notice and that is when opinions might change. Or not.
Six points behind with the gold standard and losing at PMQs on the subject of the economy to Jezbollah.
Also the Leave/Remain split is the dog that didn't bark. The key point is that there has been no acceptance of Brexit.
It is like osmosis, her shiteness is now damaging the Tory brand.
Brexit'll still happen. The political question is more about avoiding the damage that'll come from it.
At least all the guilty Tories could take their turn at being the most despised politician in Britain.
Mind you, dealing with the post Brexit environment isn`s going to be a doddle either, since the present set of Conservatives are set on trashing the economy.
I think the Tories are best hoping for something to turn up and accepting the next little period will be tough for them. On the bright side, expectations for Brexit in the media are now so low they've a decent chance of exceeding them!
I still think Tories have a decent shot at holding onto power - the public aren't sold on Corbyn.
A new PM would inherit a pretty horrendous situation.
The DUP might come back and ask for more money. They'd have to make promises in the leadership campaign to the membership on Brexit which might well turn out not to be implementable in practice.
We may expect them to do it better, but no magical Brexit deal will be forthcoming anytime soon.
Which specific policies do you expect to be dropped or introduced, given that much of the manifesto has already been ditched in just 4 months?
She needs a reshuffle to bring in the next generation and then time to mature as potential leadership candidates. Someone untainted can then lead the party into 2022.
A Lib Dem friend I used to agree with a lot on politics horrified that I would support Corbyn.
What the Conservative Party needs is to replace every last one of its MPs.
Time is now running very very short for this reshuffle to bring on new talent into senior positions with credible leadership prospects three years hence.
If these changes do not take place before Christmas, and the govt staggers on in pathetic aimlessness well then, this Tory activist is in oh, ffs, PM, just GO and let’s be done with you.
The main gains for Labour in this poll have come from the SNP and the LDs not the Tories
He can only be president twice consecutively, hence the Medvedev 'premiership', so I'm wondering if she's going to be his glove puppet this time around.
Mind you, Putin must be getting a bit long in the tooth. Sooner or later he'll have to hand over to the next czar.
But your point is a fundamentally different one from the original objection, which was that (1) Scotland was used as a guinea pig for the policy and (2) that the Tories paid the price for doing so. In reality, this retrofitted myth has been built into a left critique of the Tory years well after the event.
Leave of course won the referendum by 4%.
Bless...
Sorry, Mr Herdson, but your Conservative Party is irretrievably tainted by May. She taints and corrupts the lot of you.
The only exception, just possibly, is TSE.
The party members will decide. They won't accept another stitchup. And they'll go for the most rightwing option available.
Whoever appeals to your execution consultant mate will get the gig and be foisted on the country.
Leadsom would have beaten May.
Next time around, she (or similar), will.
https://twitter.com/MichaelH14/status/920401189623169025
So there is no panacea at present and the Mogg has a chance if he decided to run
We will ask for an extension to Article 50.
The "no deal" brigade have been busted. When they say "no deal", they mean "apart from the deals that keep the planes flying and so on and so forth..."
Our team are so crap, there is no chance of us negotiating such a "no deal" in the time left.
There will be a vote in Parliament to ask for an extension which the Government will lose.
And Universal Credit is one such policy where most people from all parties agree with the concept, but for some reason the Tories seem determined to deny the effects. A phone line to beg for money when penniless that costs 55p a minute isn't just stupid, its cruel. Making people wait at least 6 weeks - longer than any employer - for UC in arrears because "its like being in work" is utterly stupid when no-one in the world of work gets paid 6 weekly. Had they set it to 4 weeks they might at least have had some cover...
The evidence on UC is clear and unambiguous - it creates a wall of debt that cripples the already poor, and is driving a wave of evictions and emergency housing needs that have councils crapping themselves as UC heads in their direction. We the taxpayer pay to mop up the mess in human lives destroyed by this absurd rule, it actually COSTS us money yet the Tory MP sheep bleat out "how would Labour pay for cutting the time" as if there are no on-costs and that human life and dignity has no value.
A new leader could grab the policy and make immediate changes. There, a starter for 10.
Excuse me asking but has no one noticed that we apparently have 101% of people voting in this hypothetical referendum? Is this a way for Remain to make sure they win by fixing the result?
The electorate might give a new leader a fair wind. The eurocrats won't care. They swallowed half the rebate and gave nothing back when Blair was PM. When Cameron was holding an In/Out vote they offered peanuts and claimed they were watermelons. When May offered a conciliatory tone at Florence they just wanted to know about the money.
Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean it'd be a mistake to axe May earlier than most would have expected. The problem is that the likeliest successors all look rubbish, and what interesting talent there is languishes on the backbenches because May is too weak to demote ministers and promote fresh blood.
Mr. P, and what will the EU demand for that?
OK So they've changed it to freephone (And thats no bad thing) - but using the HEARTLESS 55p line as part of your argument is tribal tripe.
Leadsom still shouldn't have said it, of course.
He has flapped around and shown a total lack of understanding of how trade agreements work. I wonder, before he took his job, if he'd ever even read through a single (simple) agreement. (Forget NAFTA, which takes 32 separate PDFs before appendices.)
And his tweet about the UK being able to sign an FTA with Israel post Brexit demonstrated extraordinary ignorance of the EU's existing agreements.
Could we please give Kwasi Kwarteng the job instead. He's 10x smarter, less arrogant, and understands the world of business and finance. (And he's a Leaver.)
Go ask anyone who isn't a git whether setting a chargeable phone number for people who are penniless makes any kind of sense.
On issues like UC I don't give a toss about party politics, I just want to the destruction of people's lives to stop. And if that is the Tories stopping the roll-out to fix it then fantastic. They won't though, it costs too much money apparently.
The rise and emboldening of the SJW-class is one of the most annoying aspects of Corbo's leadership.
This piece by the always excellent Tom Clark has written this which seems very plausible.
The seven steps from a “no-deal” Brexit to Jeremy Corbyn’s Britain.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the-seven-steps-from-the-no-deal-brexit-to-jeremy-corbyns-britain
The gov't tagging on a local rate phoneline for issues is not a deliberate act of cruelty though.
Not gunships btw, Lancasters. The Boche still build quite a lot of cars downstream of the Möhne Dam.
Corbyn has simply neutralised Brexit by accepting it to focus on attacking austerity, zero hours contracts, housing, students loan costs etc