Turns out David Davis is not the consummate deal-maker he thought he was. What a surprise!
Turns out that Eurocrats care more for their pet undemocratic project than the people of Europe. What a surprise!
In fairness that wasn't a surprise. Its why we left. Which makes moaning about it now seem a tad childish.
Absolutely. Davis has not exactly been highly rated on PB boards. His Cameron era sulk was ridiculous.
The man's an over promoted idiot. It's....suboptimal.
David Davis is the only prominent Leave campaigner who has "owned" Brexit and tried to make a success of it. Not one other of them has stepped up to the plate. I respect him for that, even if I suspect his willingness to take it on was due to an unwarranted belief in his powers of negotiation. He seems pretty disillusioned however.
I agree. Tho I'm not sure if "disillusioned" is quite the right word, I think he's more tired and disappointed that he's negotiating with an entity, the EU, which is not acting in good faith, and is incapable of compromise and concession even when some actors within it (like Barnier) see that this must happen.
It's the problem of the 27+1. There are 27 countries which all want whatever they can get out of Brexit (including many different things), and a Commission which, in part, seeks to punish the UK simply for Brexiting. How do you negotiate with that?
Possibly so. How many kinds of cheese does Europe have? If the EU Council and Commission didn't herd the cats for us, we would be negotiating in 28 dimensions. On the whole it seems a good arrangement.
To be fair your source is now rather out of date. In the modern climate of the last few years extremist has been used more and more as a synonym for potential terrorist. Wrongly perhaps but I can see why the correction was felt necessary.
I agree there are some fairly loose synonyms there (nut, fiend, visionary); I'm sure we can all choose the definitions we'd prefer to be applied to ourselves and to our opponents!
So would you rather be called a fanatic or an extremist? There are very different meanings and implications for the two words.
A film fanatic or a film extremist? A football fanatic or a football extremist?
More apposite perhaps:
A political fanatic (which I would suggest includes quite a few of us here) or a political extremist?
One can be a fanatic and still be part of the mainstream. By the very nature of the word in its basic meaning the same does not apply to an extremist.
It's all about context; I don't think most people would see much difference between an ISIS fanatic and an ISIS extremist & would consider both not part of the mainstream. I would differentiate between a political fanatic and someone fanatical about politics (I don't think I'm either but others may disagree).
9,938 = fanatical
The first step is to acknowledge that you have a problem...
Hey, a goodly portion of these posts wouldn't have been about politics (an even greater portion if pointing & laughing at idiots can also be discounted).
Turns out David Davis is not the consummate deal-maker he thought he was. What a surprise!
Turns out that Eurocrats care more for their pet undemocratic project than the people of Europe. What a surprise!
In fairness that wasn't a surprise. Its why we left. Which makes moaning about it now seem a tad childish.
Absolutely. Davis has not exactly been highly rated on PB boards. His Cameron era sulk was ridiculous.
The man's an over promoted idiot. It's....suboptimal.
David Davis is the only prominent Leave campaigner who has "owned" Brexit and tried to make a success of it. Not one other of them has stepped up to the plate. I respect him for that, even if I suspect his willingness to take it on was due to an unwarranted belief in his powers of negotiation. He seems pretty disillusioned however.
Michael Gove stepped up to the plate and ran for the leadership to be PM. Andrea Leadsome stepped up to the plate and ran for the leadership to be PM. Boris Johnson stepped up to the plate and became Foreign Secretary. Liam Fox stepped up to the plate and became International Trade Secretary. What he's done since I'm not so sure about.
Who precisely was a prominent Leave campaigner who didn't step up to the plate?
All the above except Fox who is simply deluded. I am talking about putting the effort in to make Brexit a success. Only Davis is doing that, albeit without much to show for it so far. Which is possibly why the others are not investing.
If we had a small recession after Brexit before bouncing back quickly to growth and surpassing the pre-recession peak, would PB's Remainers still class that as trashing the economy?
Elliot. Its what happens next that's the concern. We have to be able to trade on day 1 after we leave, yet when real and practical issues are raised its always thrown back as "we're Britain" or "in 5 years...". Forget 5 years down the line and look 5 days down the line.
Without being a member of the EEA the EU will impose a hard border. What we do on our side is irrelevant - they will stop and check all trucks crossing their border. The delay not only adds massive cost it physically stops trade. Our trucks can't cross the channel to then recross loaded with car parts or food or that fitness tracker I've ordered from Amazon that they're sending me (with free shipping!) from Italy.
What are the realities here? Our port operators say it will take years to install the infrastructure needed for full customs checks. HMRC say it needs 5 years for a computer system to handle "no deal" customs checks. Our big logistics operators are increasingly concerned. I work in the food industry which is now trying to work out what the hell to do with the worst case scenario we're now facing. And thats just one industry - most others are built on easy free unimpeded access to and from European suppliers and factories. The EU will impose a hard border if we leave the single market on day 1.
So in an economy with inflation once again outstripping wages, with 1/3 of households having £0 in the bank, with personal debt north of £200bn and an immediate sharp economic shock brewing with no deal brexit, you will have to excuse me if I - a leave voter BTW - take your dismissive comments about the economy under advisement.
I'm not predicting that would be the result. I am just asking whether Remainers whether they would view such an eventuality as catastrophic or not.
Mistake. I really don't see us getting anyone better. And the risk is that we have another terrible start to the next campaign whilst someone learns the squad.
Mistake. I really don't see us getting anyone better. And the risk is that we have another terrible start to the next campaign whilst someone learns the squad.
Why are there any negotiations if the EU is not going to make any concessions, nor is it expecting the UK to make any concessions.
I agree. Whatever is going on it is not negotiating. One side is saying "tell me what you're going to give me and then I'll tell you what you'll get for it". The other side is saying "let's talk about both sides of that deal" when it should be saying "fuck off".
+1
As a professional negotiator of 25 years (and someone who had to play poker against the Shells and BPs and State Oil Companies of this world, mostly whilst holding an 8 high) and whose negotiating skills helped take a company from start-up to the edge of the FTSE100 in six years - I just despair at the awfulness of the Brexit process. From both sides.
Mistake. I really don't see us getting anyone better. And the risk is that we have another terrible start to the next campaign whilst someone learns the squad.
To be fair, there's not much of a squad to learn. They don't exactly need the full set of Topps cards....
Turns out David Davis is not the consummate deal-maker he thought he was. What a surprise!
Turns out that Eurocrats care more for their pet undemocratic project than the people of Europe. What a surprise!
In fairness that wasn't a surprise. Its why we left. Which makes moaning about it now seem a tad childish.
Actually, it does seem to have come as a surprise to most Leavers that the EU won't immediately smilingly agree to all of Britain's wishlist. The idea that they had their own priorities seems to have been a sensational revelation to nearly all of them, up to and including those now responsible for negotiating Britain's exit.
So now that the master of distraction has got the cable news channels wound up for the next 24 hours, what’s today’s real news story?
Well seeing as we've had "calm before the storm", some pointed tweets about North Korea, and rumours of big military meetings, it might be a distraction from the preparation for a bloody huge war.
If we had a small recession after Brexit before bouncing back quickly to growth and surpassing the pre-recession peak, would PB's Remainers still class that as trashing the economy?
Elliot. Its what happens next that's the concern. We have to be able to trade on day 1 after we leave, yet when real and practical issues are raised its always thrown back as "we're Britain" or "in 5 years...". Forget 5 years down the line and look 5 days down the line.
Without being a member of the EEA the EU will impose a hard border. What we do on our side is irrelevant - they will stop and check all trucks crossing their border. The delay not only adds massive cost it physically stops trade. Our trucks can't cross the channel to then recross loaded with car parts or food or that fitness tracker I've ordered from Amazon that they're sending me (with free shipping!) from Italy.
What are the realities here? Our port operators say it will take years to install the infrastructure needed for full customs checks. HMRC say it needs 5 years for a computer system to handle "no deal" customs checks. Our big logistics operators are increasingly concerned. I work in the food industry which is now trying to work out what the hell to do with the worst case scenario we're now facing. And thats just one industry - most others are built on easy free unimpeded access to and from European suppliers and factories. The EU will impose a hard border if we leave the single market on day 1.
So in an economy with inflation once again outstripping wages, with 1/3 of households having £0 in the bank, with personal debt north of £200bn and an immediate sharp economic shock brewing with no deal brexit, you will have to excuse me if I - a leave voter BTW - take your dismissive comments about the economy under advisement.
I'm not predicting that would be the result. I am just asking whether Remainers whether they would view such an eventuality as catastrophic or not.
The EU is playing hardball because they want us to accept EEA/EFTA status (still paying money, staying in Single Market, probably accepting some kind of modified FoM), as the only alternative to Apocalypse.
The question is how hard the EU will push this, because there is a serious danger they will go too far and the Brits will think *fuck it*, rather than *OK this'll do for now*.
Presumably the French won't be ready for a hard border either on day 1 of a no deal scenario
The EU is playing hardball because they want us to accept EEA/EFTA status (still paying money, staying in Single Market, probably accepting some kind of modified FoM), as the only alternative to Apocalypse.
The question is how hard the EU will push this, because there is a serious danger they will go too far and the Brits will think *fuck it*, rather than *OK this'll do for now*.
Very true. A lot of people I speak to have swallowed the idea that if we don't get what we like we tell the EU to go and bollocks and that we carry on as normal. When you start explaining the real and practical issues that make the "fuck it" option rather problematic, they simply can't comprehend that such a massive problem is realistic.
A hard brexit will be a cathartic experience for a great many people. Which is why I am calling it an extinction level event for the politicians and parties who would be seen as responsible for it. Its all very well convincing people that well sir, there's nothing on Earth like a genuine, bona-fide, electrified, six-car monorail, but when they not only don't get a monorail but suffer the personal effects of an economy that suffers a crippling shock that takes away their standard of living, they'll be looking for someone to blame.
So now that the master of distraction has got the cable news channels wound up for the next 24 hours, what’s today’s real news story?
The alarming story that some of Trump's own cabinet seem to think he is unravelling and could start a nuclear war?
Looking more and more likely that the 25th Amendment could end all this. If Pence calls for it to be invoked he could find the votes he needs to become POTUS himself.
If we had a small recession after Brexit before bouncing back quickly to growth and surpassing the pre-recession peak, would PB's Remainers still class that as trashing the economy?
Elliot. Its what happens next that's the concern. We have to be able to trade on day 1 after we leave, yet when real and practical issues are raised its always thrown back as "we're Britain" or "in 5 years...". Forget 5 years down the line and look 5 days down the line.
Without being a member of the EEA the EU will impose a hard border. What we do on our side is irrelevant - they will stop and check all trucks crossing their border. The delay not only adds massive cost it physically stops trade. Our trucks can't cross the channel to then recross loaded with car parts or food or that fitness tracker I've ordered from Amazon that they're sending me (with free shipping!) from Italy.
What are the realities here? Our port operators say it will take years to install the infrastructure needed for full customs checks. HMRC say it needs 5 years for a computer system to handle "no deal" customs checks. Our big logistics operators are increasingly concerned. I work in the food industry which is now trying to work out what the hell to do with the worst case scenario we're now facing. And thats just one industry - most others are built on easy free unimpeded access to and from European suppliers and factories. The EU will impose a hard border if we leave the single market on day 1.
So in an economy with inflation once again outstripping wages, with 1/3 of households having £0 in the bank, with personal debt north of £200bn and an immediate sharp economic shock brewing with no deal brexit, you will have to excuse me if I - a leave voter BTW - take your dismissive comments about the economy under advisement.
I'm not predicting that would be the result. I am just asking whether Remainers whether they would view such an eventuality as catastrophic or not.
The EU is playing hardball because they want us to accept EEA/EFTA status (still paying money, staying in Single Market, probably accepting some kind of modified FoM), as the only alternative to Apocalypse.
The question is how hard the EU will push this, because there is a serious danger they will go too far and the Brits will think *fuck it*, rather than *OK this'll do for now*.
Presumably the French won't be ready for a hard border either on day 1 of a no deal scenario
A good point. I suspect they are similarly lacking in infrastructure.
The chance of these proposals - or any other boundary changes - going through a hung parliament is nil. The next election will be fought in the existing constituencies.
To be clear you mean the 2022 election will be fought on 2001 boundaries.
A good point. I suspect they are similarly lacking in infrastructure.
Meaning that we could spend billions on our side, and still find Kent gridlocked because the French will process everything at a snail's pace.
Before the Single Market the French ALWAYS used to do everything at snails pace. And will again. Because en coulez vous. This was is and will be where WTO Brexit falls apart. The EU requires a hard border. The French will be delighted to apply this requirement.
Obama and Clinton ended the US funding contribution to UNESCO in 2011 for the same reason. They will still be an associate member - still not paying in.
I haven't come across 'convential' medicines before. Are these dispensed by nuns?
You know that Ernesto Bertarelli's not inconsiderable fortune was based on his grandfather driving a horse and cart around the convents of Northern Italy to collect urine?
The EU is playing hardball because they want us to accept EEA/EFTA status (still paying money, staying in Single Market, probably accepting some kind of modified FoM), as the only alternative to Apocalypse.
The question is how hard the EU will push this, because there is a serious danger they will go too far and the Brits will think *fuck it*, rather than *OK this'll do for now*.
Very true. A lot of people I speak to have swallowed the idea that if we don't get what we like we tell the EU to go and bollocks and that we carry on as normal
= the source of the 74% "no deal" supporters, is my guess.
Turns out David Davis is not the consummate deal-maker he thought he was. What a surprise!
Turns out that Eurocrats care more for their pet undemocratic project than the people of Europe. What a surprise!
In fairness that wasn't a surprise. Its why we left. Which makes moaning about it now seem a tad childish.
Absolutely. Davis has not exactly been highly rated on PB boards. His Cameron era sulk was ridiculous.
The man's an over promoted idiot. It's....suboptimal.
David Davis is the only prominent Leave campaigner who has "owned" Brexit and tried to make a success of it. Not one other of them has stepped up to the plate. I respect him for that, even if I suspect his willingness to take it on was due to an unwarranted belief in his powers of negotiation. He seems pretty disillusioned however.
I agree. Tho I'm not sure if "disillusioned" is quite the right word, I think he's more tired and disappointed that he's negotiating with an entity, the EU, which is not acting in good faith, and is incapable of compromise and concession even when some actors within it (like Barnier) see that this must happen.
It's the problem of the 27+1. There are 27 countries which all want whatever they can get out of Brexit (including many different things), and a Commission which, in part, seeks to punish the UK simply for Brexiting. How do you negotiate with that?
Possibly so. How many kinds of cheese does Europe have? If the EU Council and Commission didn't herd the cats for us, we would be negotiating in 28 dimensions. On the whole it seems a good arrangement.
It is very striking that the EU27 governments, European parliament and council of ministers have held solidarity very well. Our government cannot even manage unity within the 22 members of the cabinet. That is where the indecision lies.
Turns out David Davis is not the consummate deal-maker he thought he was. What a surprise!
Turns out that Eurocrats care more for their pet undemocratic project than the people of Europe. What a surprise!
In fairness that wasn't a surprise. Its why we left. Which makes moaning about it now seem a tad childish.
Absolutely. Davis has not exactly been highly rated on PB boards. His Cameron era sulk was ridiculous.
The man's an over promoted idiot. It's....suboptimal.
David Davis is the only prominent Leave campaigner who has "owned" Brexit and tried to make a success of it. Not one other of them has stepped up to the plate. I respect him for that, even if I suspect his willingness to take it on was due to an unwarranted belief in his powers of negotiation. He seems pretty disillusioned however.
I agree. Tho I'm not sure if "disillusioned" is quite the right word, I think he's more tired and disappointed that he's negotiating with an entity, the EU, which is not acting in good faith, and is incapable of compromise and concession even when some actors within it (like Barnier) see that this must happen.
It's the problem of the 27+1. There are 27 countries which all want whatever they can get out of Brexit (including many different things), and a Commission which, in part, seeks to punish the UK simply for Brexiting. How do you negotiate with that?
Possibly so. How many kinds of cheese does Europe have? If the EU Council and Commission didn't herd the cats for us, we would be negotiating in 28 dimensions. On the whole it seems a good arrangement.
It is very striking that the EU27 governments, European parliament and council of ministers have held solidarity very well. Our government cannot even manage unity within the 22 members of the cabinet. That is where the indecision lies.
Wasn’t the Danish finance minister talking about moving on just a few days ago?
It is very striking that the EU27 governments, European parliament and council of ministers have held solidarity very well. Our government cannot even manage unity within the 22 members of the cabinet. That is where the indecision lies.
I'm not sure that holding solidly to a bonkers position is something to be proud of.
Turns out David Davis is not the consummate deal-maker he thought he was. What a surprise!
Turns out that Eurocrats care more for their pet undemocratic project than the people of Europe. What a surprise!
In fairness that wasn't a surprise. Its why we left. Which makes moaning about it now seem a tad childish.
Actually, it does seem to have come as a surprise to most Leavers that the EU won't immediately smilingly agree to all of Britain's wishlist. The idea that they had their own priorities seems to have been a sensational revelation to nearly all of them, up to and including those now responsible for negotiating Britain's exit.
Only a surprise to gullible idiot Leavers.
As I said, nearly all of them.
Which in reality means some of them, or at least a couple, or that bloke you met down the pub who had had one too many.
The EU is playing hardball because they want us to accept EEA/EFTA status (still paying money, staying in Single Market, probably accepting some kind of modified FoM), as the only alternative to Apocalypse.
The question is how hard the EU will push this, because there is a serious danger they will go too far and the Brits will think *fuck it*, rather than *OK this'll do for now*.
Very true. A lot of people I speak to have swallowed the idea that if we don't get what we like we tell the EU to go and bollocks and that we carry on as normal
= the source of the 74% "no deal" supporters, is my guess.
As 48% voted Remain, and little sign of real polling shift, clearly the 74% majority for No Deal just shows that they did not understand the options. Not very promising for a further referendum!
The chance of these proposals - or any other boundary changes - going through a hung parliament is nil. The next election will be fought in the existing constituencies.
To be clear you mean the 2022 election will be fought on 2001 boundaries.
Pass legislation to redraw boundaries on the basis of the status quo ante, using the electoral data from the recent GE. Would probably go through on the nod. Or risk a massive to do, with the risk of it failing. Simples.
Turns out David Davis is not the consummate deal-maker he thought he was. What a surprise!
Turns out that Eurocrats care more for their pet undemocratic project than the people of Europe. What a surprise!
In fairness that wasn't a surprise. Its why we left. Which makes moaning about it now seem a tad childish.
Absolutely. Davis has not exactly been highly rated on PB boards. His Cameron era sulk was ridiculous.
The man's an over promoted idiot. It's....suboptimal.
David Davis is the only prominent Leave campaigner who has "owned" Brexit and tried to make a success of it. Not one other of them has stepped up to the plate. I respect him for that, even if I suspect his willingness to take it on was due to an unwarranted belief in his powers of negotiation. He seems pretty disillusioned however.
I agree. Tho I'm not sure if "disillusioned" is quite the right word, I think he's more tired and disappointed that he's negotiating with an entity, the EU, which is not acting in good faith, and is incapable of compromise and concession even when some actors within it (like Barnier) see that this must happen.
It's the problem of the 27+1. There are 27 countries which all want whatever they can get out of Brexit (including many different things), and a Commission which, in part, seeks to punish the UK simply for Brexiting. How do you negotiate with that?
Possibly so. How many kinds of cheese does Europe have? If the EU Council and Commission didn't herd the cats for us, we would be negotiating in 28 dimensions. On the whole it seems a good arrangement.
It is very striking that the EU27 governments, European parliament and council of ministers have held solidarity very well. Our government cannot even manage unity within the 22 members of the cabinet. That is where the indecision lies.
Wasn’t the Danish finance minister talking about moving on just a few days ago?
Yes, and for that reason I do not think it will happen: because it would seriously fuck up some EU economies as well, including Ireland, Holland, Denmark. And 3.5 million EU citizens in the UK, and their relatives at home. And all the many EU businesses that export to the UK, and use London for so many reasons, and so on and so forth.
There will probably be a fudge, and a transition deal, and we will get a kind of EEA status with some fig leaves to say it's real Brexit not EEA. It will be tolerable but unideal.
That said, the risk of a Catastrophic Brexit is not insignificant. 10%? 20%? And, as I say, if it happens it will probably happen because the EU overplays an already strong hand.
Ironically the EU fudging the rules is the thing that so many hard Brexit supporters feel so aggrieved about. Will be funny if thats the thing that saves us.
I'm not so convinced that we will be saved in this way. The powers that be have to look at the integrity of the whole in the long term, not just a short term bit of pain. A slowdown in exports to the EU will hit some like Holland, but on the flip side BMW will throw a bucket of money at Nedcar to make more MINI vehicles displaced out of Cowley.
Genuine question though - are our nutters likely to accept any kind of fudged figleaf deal? We absolutely won't get EEA access without £ and an element of free movement, which would surely be politically impossible for the current government to accept.
Turns out David Davis is not the consummate deal-maker he thought he was. What a surprise!
Turns out that Eurocrats care more for their pet undemocratic project than the people of Europe. What a surprise!
In fairness that wasn't a surprise. Its why we left. Which makes moaning about it now seem a tad childish.
Absolutely. Davis has not exactly been highly rated on PB boards. His Cameron era sulk was ridiculous.
The man's an over promoted idiot. It's....suboptimal.
David Davis is the only prominent Leave campaigner who has "owned" Brexit and tried to make a success of it. Not one other of them has stepped up to the plate. I respect him for that, even if I suspect his willingness to take it on was due to an unwarranted belief in his powers of negotiation. He seems pretty disillusioned however.
I agree. Tho I'm not sure if "disillusioned" is quite the right word, I think he's more tired and disappointed that he's negotiating with an entity, the EU, which is not acting in good faith, and is incapable of compromise and concession even when some actors within it (like Barnier) see that this must happen.
It's the problem of the 27+1. There are 27 countries which all want whatever they can get out of Brexit (including many different things), and a Commission which, in part, seeks to punish the UK simply for Brexiting. How do you negotiate with that?
Possibly so. How many kinds of cheese does Europe have? If the EU Council and Commission didn't herd the cats for us, we would be negotiating in 28 dimensions. On the whole it seems a good arrangement.
It is very striking that the EU27 governments, European parliament and council of ministers have held solidarity very well. Our government cannot even manage unity within the 22 members of the cabinet. That is where the indecision lies.
Wasn’t the Danish finance minister talking about moving on just a few days ago?
Ironically the EU fudging the rules is the thing that so many hard Brexit supporters feel so aggrieved about. Will be funny if thats the thing that saves us.
THE EU will fudge a deal to save us is just the latest iteration of "BMW will force Angela Merkel to give us a great deal"
Great piece from Stephen Bush. For all the guff the Tories do about "the will of the people", the type of Brexit they're pursuing is not even the type of Brexit that the average Leave voter wants:
Irish authorities are bracing to lose out in the race to host the European Banking Authority and the European Medicines Agency following the U.K.’s departure from the European Union, a person familiar with the matter said.
Dublin is viewed as having little chance of winning either organization, which are being forced from London after Brexit, in part due to Ireland’s lack of natural geographical allies, the person said, who asked not to be named as deliberations are private. Frankfurt is viewed as one of the leading candidates for the EBA, while Amsterdam and Copenhagen are among the leading contenders for the EMA, the person said.
Great piece from Stephen Bush. For all the guff the Tories do about "the will of the people", the type of Brexit they're pursuing is not even the type of Brexit that the average Leave voter wants:
Yawn - one more article to add to the very long list of commentators saying that we can have whatever we want without bothering to enquire whether the EU is willing to agree to it.
Turns out David Davis is not the consummate deal-maker he thought he was. What a surprise!
Turns out that Eurocrats care more for their pet undemocratic project than the people of Europe. What a surprise!
In fairness that wasn't a surprise. Its why we left. Which makes moaning about it now seem a tad childish.
Absolutely. Davis has not exactly been highly rated on PB boards. His Cameron era sulk was ridiculous.
The man's an over promoted idiot. It's....suboptimal.
David Davis is the only prominent Leave campaigner who has "owned" Brexit and tried to make a success of it. Not one other of them has stepped up to the plate. I respect him for that, even if I suspect his willingness to take it on was due to an unwarranted belief in his powers of negotiation. He seems pretty disillusioned however.
I agree. Tho I'm not sure if "disillusioned" is quite the right word, I think he's more tired and disappointed that he's negotiating with an entity, the EU, which is not acting in good faith, and is incapable of compromise and concession even when some actors within it (like Barnier) see that this must happen.
It's the problem of the 27+1. There are 27 countries which all want whatever they can get out of Brexit (including many different things), and a Commission which, in part, seeks to punish the UK simply for Brexiting. How do you negotiate with that?
Possibly so. How many kinds of cheese does Europe have? If the EU Council and Commission didn't herd the cats for us, we would be negotiating in 28 dimensions. On the whole it seems a good arrangement.
It is very striking that the EU27 governments, European parliament and council of ministers have held solidarity very well. Our government cannot even manage unity within the 22 members of the cabinet. That is where the indecision lies.
Wasn’t the Danish finance minister talking about moving on just a few days ago?
I'm curious a) how many people on here have a job and b) how many of those are involved in trade ie buying and selling things.
It seems that not many have the foggiest idea how it actually works.
The bigger picture extends to the idiots that represent us, clueless. In sport the senior people have mostly been in and around the game for decades, most politicians have no idea how business works.
Great piece from Stephen Bush. For all the guff the Tories do about "the will of the people", the type of Brexit they're pursuing is not even the type of Brexit that the average Leave voter wants:
As far as what the average voter wants out of Brexit, the ask from the EU27 is simple: control over immigration and an end to the free movement of people, without economic dislocation.
The EU always havers, and can-kicks, and bickers, and then emerges with last minute consignments of fudge signed off at 4am, which are then acclaimed as a triumph. It's what they do.
They will string this out for as long as they can (because they rightly think this puts more pressure on us, economically and politically) but in the end fudging is in the eurocratic DNA, and I suspect that's what will happen.
You still think someone else will rescue you from your vote
Great piece from Stephen Bush. For all the guff the Tories do about "the will of the people", the type of Brexit they're pursuing is not even the type of Brexit that the average Leave voter wants:
Yawn - one more article to add to the very long list of commentators saying that we can have whatever we want without bothering to enquire whether the EU is willing to agree to it.
I never understand what you mean when you make comments like this. No-one is saying we can control what the EU agrees to, but we can certainly control what we ourselves bid for.
The point is that the Tories are bidding for a "Dan Hannan Brexit" (emphasis on free trade deals and "sovereignty", apparently with no intention of reducing immigration numbers), when the average Leave voter couldn't give a stuff about doing trade deals with the rest of the world and has probably never even heard of the European Court of Justice, but primarily just wants less immigration.
Turns out David Davis is not the consummate deal-maker he thought he was. What a surprise!
Turns out that Eurocrats care more for their pet undemocratic project than the people of Europe. What a surprise!
In fairness that wasn't a surprise. Its why we left. Which makes moaning about it now seem a tad childish.
Absolutely. Davis has not exactly been highly rated on PB boards. His Cameron era sulk was ridiculous.
The man's an over promoted idiot. It's....suboptimal.
David Davis is the only prominent Leave campaigner who has "owned" Brexit and tried to make a success of it. Not one other of them has stepped up to the plate. I respect him for that, even if I suspect his willingness to take it on was due to an unwarranted belief in his powers of negotiation. He seems pretty disillusioned however.
Michael Gove stepped up to the plate and ran for the leadership to be PM. Andrea Leadsome stepped up to the plate and ran for the leadership to be PM. Boris Johnson stepped up to the plate and became Foreign Secretary. Liam Fox stepped up to the plate and became International Trade Secretary. What he's done since I'm not so sure about.
Who precisely was a prominent Leave campaigner who didn't step up to the plate?
Great piece from Stephen Bush. For all the guff the Tories do about "the will of the people", the type of Brexit they're pursuing is not even the type of Brexit that the average Leave voter wants:
As far as what the average voter wants out of Brexit, the ask from the EU27 is simple: control over immigration and an end to the free movement of people, without economic dislocation.
That’s exactly what HMG is trying to achieve.
Eh? I don't think even Brexiteers deny that completely breaking from the Single Market and Customs Union is going to cause economic dislocation/disruption - whether the disruption will be worth it is where they differ.
Great piece from Stephen Bush. For all the guff the Tories do about "the will of the people", the type of Brexit they're pursuing is not even the type of Brexit that the average Leave voter wants:
As far as what the average voter wants out of Brexit, the ask from the EU27 is simple: control over immigration and an end to the free movement of people, without economic dislocation.
That’s exactly what HMG is trying to achieve.
Eh? I don't think even Brexiteers deny that completely breaking from the Single Market and Customs Union is going to cause economic dislocation/disruption - whether the disruption will be worth it is where they differ.
Well they are trying to minimise that disruption by pushing for a comprehensive FTA.
Ironically the EU fudging the rules is the thing that so many hard Brexit supporters feel so aggrieved about. Will be funny if thats the thing that saves us.
THE EU will fudge a deal to save us is just the latest iteration of "BMW will force Angela Merkel to give us a great deal"
How's that one working out?
Strangely enough, I think Merkel is the one holding up the progress. The political landscape in Germany is possibly such that she wants to make sure Germans are not on the hook for the expansion eastwards in the 2000's - hence the statement that 'What was agreed by 28 should be paid by 28'. They weren't talking about the budget to 2021 (which we would certainly agree)- they were quite possibly talking about the nett contributions made by the EU to less developed members, and the potential bail out losses coming down the track.
I don't think the government can agree to anything beyond 2021 that isn't directly tied to a program in which we will actively participate - Erasmus, Open Skies, Horizon, ESA - that others from outside the 27 also participate in (EFTA/Israel/Non EU Eastern Europeans/Turkey etc). That would be politically untenable.
Merkel and others must know this, so their end game could be one of three choices - No Deal (unlikely), A late compromise (much more likely), or possibly creating a pressure situation which brings a change of UK govt, with or without a delay to the 2019 deadline (unlikely but the 'remain' angle).
Yes, and for that reason I do not think it will happen: because it would seriously fuck up some EU economies as well, including Ireland, Holland, Denmark. And 3.5 million EU citizens in the UK, and their relatives at home. And all the many EU businesses that export to the UK, and use London for so many reasons, and so on and so forth.
There will probably be a fudge, and a transition deal, and we will get a kind of EEA status with some fig leaves to say it's real Brexit not EEA. It will be tolerable but unideal.
That said, the risk of a Catastrophic Brexit is not insignificant. 10%? 20%? And, as I say, if it happens it will probably happen because the EU overplays an already strong hand.
Ironically the EU fudging the rules is the thing that so many hard Brexit supporters feel so aggrieved about. Will be funny if thats the thing that saves us.
Nope, because Jacob Rees-Mogg will petition, he will sleep outside on the pavement if necessary, and he will bring all necessary pressure, together with the power of his mighty intellect to bear on the European Court of Justice to ensure that they uphold the rules and in their judgement they rule against the EU and for our demands.
I'm curious a) how many people on here have a job and b) how many of those are involved in trade ie buying and selling things.
It seems that not many have the foggiest idea how it actually works.
The bigger picture extends to the idiots that represent us, clueless. In sport the senior people have mostly been in and around the game for decades, most politicians have no idea how business works.
Your analogy assumes politics is just about business - it isn't.
Ironically the EU fudging the rules is the thing that so many hard Brexit supporters feel so aggrieved about. Will be funny if thats the thing that saves us.
THE EU will fudge a deal to save us is just the latest iteration of "BMW will force Angela Merkel to give us a great deal"
How's that one working out?
Merkel and others must know this, so their end game could be one of three choices - No Deal (unlikely), A late compromise (much more likely), or possibly creating a pressure situation which brings a change of UK govt, with or without a delay to the 2019 deadline (unlikely but the 'remain' angle).
A “late” deal would be of limited use to the U.K. as government and business would already have planned on “no deal” and a “change of government” would poison relations indefinitely.....its not just Britain running out of time.....
Turns out David Davis is not the consummate deal-maker he thought he was. What a surprise!
Turns out that Eurocrats care more for their pet undemocratic project than the people of Europe. What a surprise!
In fairness that wasn't a surprise. Its why we left. Which makes moaning about it now seem a tad childish.
Absolutely. Davis has not exactly been highly rated on PB boards. His Cameron era sulk was ridiculous.
The man's an over promoted idiot. It's....suboptimal.
David Davis is the only prominent Leave campaigner who has "owned" Brexit and tried to make a success of it. Not one other of them has stepped up to the plate. I respect him for that, even if I suspect his willingness to take it on was due to an unwarranted belief in his powers of negotiation. He seems pretty disillusioned however.
I agree. Tho I'm not sommission which, in part, seeks to punish the UK simply for Brexiting. How do you negotiate with that?
Possibly so. How many kinds of cheese does Europe have? If the EU Council and Commission didn't herd the cats for us, we would be negotiating in 28 dimensions. On the whole it seems a good arrangement.
It is very striking that the EU27 governments, European parliament and council of ministers have held solidarity very well. Our government cannot even manage unity within the 22 members of the cabinet. That is where the indecision lies.
Well that's where you're wrong. Britain has made generous and sensible offers. The indecision and confusion is now across the Channel.
"One source said Barnier had personally appeared open to agreement, but that he was being boxed in by what was described as a lack of flexibility by the EU27, who appeared unable to decide whether such a compromise was acceptable."
I'm curious a) how many people on here have a job and b) how many of those are involved in trade ie buying and selling things.
It seems that not many have the foggiest idea how it actually works.
The bigger picture extends to the idiots that represent us, clueless. In sport the senior people have mostly been in and around the game for decades, most politicians have no idea how business works.
Your analogy assumes politics is just about business - it isn't.
As electing a business with no political experience as POTUS demonstrates!
Ironically the EU fudging the rules is the thing that so many hard Brexit supporters feel so aggrieved about. Will be funny if thats the thing that saves us.
THE EU will fudge a deal to save us is just the latest iteration of "BMW will force Angela Merkel to give us a great deal"
How's that one working out?
Merkel and others must know this, so their end game could be one of three choices - No Deal (unlikely), A late compromise (much more likely), or possibly creating a pressure situation which brings a change of UK govt, with or without a delay to the 2019 deadline (unlikely but the 'remain' angle).
A “late” deal would be of limited use to the U.K. as government and business would already have planned on “no deal” and a “change of government” would poison relations indefinitely.....its not just Britain running out of time.....
If it's just one or two nations who are holding out on moving on, it might be that these are the nations most well suited to bearing any 'No Deal' costs I suppose. Their brinkmanship might well eventually scare the others.
IT's all speculation though as they are being more disciplined in public, and the European press isn't actually very probative.
Turns out David Davis is not the consummate deal-maker he thought he was. What a surprise!
Turns out that Eurocrats care more for their pet undemocratic project than the people of Europe. What a surprise!
In fairness that wasn't a surprise. Its why we left. Which makes moaning about it now seem a tad childish.
Absolutely. Davis has not exactly been highly rated on PB boards. His Cameron era sulk was ridiculous.
The man's an over promoted idiot. It's....suboptimal.
David Davis is the only prominent Leave campaigner who has "owned" Brexit and tried to make a success of it. Not one other of them has stepped up to the plate. I respect him for that, even if I suspect his willingness to take it on was due to an unwarranted belief in his powers of negotiation. He seems pretty disillusioned however.
I agree. Tho I'm not sommission which, in part, seeks to punish the UK simply for Brexiting. How do you negotiate with that?
Possibly so. How many kinds of cheese does Europe have? If the EU Council and Commission didn't herd the cats for us, we would be negotiating in 28 dimensions. On the whole it seems a good arrangement.
It is very striking that the EU27 governments, European parliament and council of ministers have held solidarity very well. Our government cannot even manage unity within the 22 members of the cabinet. That is where the indecision lies.
Well that's where you're wrong. Britain has made generous and sensible offers. The indecision and confusion is now across the Channel.
"One source said Barnier had personally appeared open to agreement, but that he was being boxed in by what was described as a lack of flexibility by the EU27, who appeared unable to decide whether such a compromise was acceptable."
Turns out David Davis is not the consummate deal-maker he thought he was. What a surprise!
Turns out that Eurocrats care more for their pet undemocratic project than the people of Europe. What a surprise!
In fairness that wasn't a surprise. Its why we left. Which makes moaning about it now seem a tad childish.
Absolutely. Davis has not exactly been highly rated on PB boards. His Cameron era sulk was ridiculous.
The man's an over promoted idiot. It's....suboptimal.
David Davis is the only prominent Leave campaigner who has "owned" Brexit and tried to make a success of it. Not one other of them has stepped up to the plate. I respect him for that, even if I suspect his willingness to take it on was due to an unwarranted belief in his powers of negotiation. He seems pretty disillusioned however.
I agree. Tho I'm not sommission which, in part, seeks to punish the UK simply for Brexiting. How do you negotiate with that?
Possibly so. How many kinds of cheese does Europe have? If the EU Council and Commission didn't herd the cats for us, we would be negotiating in 28 dimensions. On the whole it seems a good arrangement.
It is very indecision lies.
WellChannel.
"One source said Barnier had personally appeared open to agreement, but that he was being boxed in by what was described as a lack of flexibility by the EU27, who appeared unable to decide whether such a compromise was acceptable."
Our ministers are at each others throats, while the EU27 agree a collective position.
One of the difficulties the EU27 have is that our team are all over the place.
Car crash Brexit nailed on, as I have been saying for a year.
That tempting job in NZ gets more appealing, I want to be well clear as the airborne turd hits the fan!
Everyday I am thankful that our business is mostly online! The one challenge will be the travel, but I guess it will not affect our colleagues in Hong Kong and the US. Another reason to invest more in those places and less in the UK.
Ironically the EU fudging the rules is the thing that so many hard Brexit supporters feel so aggrieved about. Will be funny if thats the thing that saves us.
THE EU will fudge a deal to save us is just the latest iteration of "BMW will force Angela Merkel to give us a great deal"
How's that one working out?
The EU always havers, and can-kicks, and bickers, and then emerges with last minute consignments of fudge signed off at 4am, which are then acclaimed as a triumph. It's what they do.
They will string this out for as long as they can (because they rightly think this puts more pressure on us, economically and politically) but in the end fudging is in the eurocratic DNA, and I suspect that's what will happen.
This is what logic suggests. But these are not logical times.
speaking as someone who never had doubts about voting leave
According to remainers I am going to get exactly what I wanted to happen, ultra hard brexit followed by a far left Corbyn government. Sadly as remainers are almost always wrong I can't celebrate yet
If there are significant members of the cabinet, attempting to weaken the UK's position (not preparing for No Deal might be one part of that), It may be the risk that has to be taken.
Whether you're a remainer or a leaver, it helps nobody to have a cabinet that is working to undermine the purpose of the government's policy.
(Edit : I mean that partly in the sense that a poor fall out of the existing arrangements could happen by accident, just because the priorities of cabinet are split, and the EU might not be as unified at it appears either).
I'm curious a) how many people on here have a job and b) how many of those are involved in trade ie buying and selling things.
It seems that not many have the foggiest idea how it actually works.
The bigger picture extends to the idiots that represent us, clueless. In sport the senior people have mostly been in and around the game for decades, most politicians have no idea how business works.
I've spent the last 15 years working for major food manufacturers who also import ingredients and export products to greater and lesser extents. I've spent those 15 years working with major retailers and wholesalers up to CEO level.
And what the food industry collectively is saying is that a hard exit from the single market threatens both their ability to source ingredients / finished goods (we import 35% of food including food "made" in the UK), threatens the ability to supply supermarkets, threatens their source of labour, of transport, the already thin margins they make, and the financial ability of consumers to buy products where prices are already rising faster than wages.
I've been told several times on here by the happy-clappy end of the leaver community (I voted leave too remember) that all these fears are remoaner lies, usually followed by where we could be in 5 years. Its where we'll be in 5 days after a hard brexit that is focusing the minds of my industry, and with respect we know how things work.
If there are significant members of the cabinet, attempting to weaken the UK's position (not preparing for No Deal might be one part of that), It may be the risk that has to be taken.
Whether you're a remainer or a leaver, it helps nobody to have a cabinet that is working to undermine the purpose of the government's policy.
The clearest possible sign that Brexit is going badly is the ever-increasing level of paranoia that Leave supporters are demonstrating.
If there are significant members of the cabinet, attempting to weaken the UK's position (not preparing for No Deal might be one part of that), It may be the risk that has to be taken.
Whether you're a remainer or a leaver, it helps nobody to have a cabinet that is working to undermine the purpose of the government's policy.
The clearest possible sign that Brexit is going badly is the ever-increasing level of paranoia that Leave supporters are demonstrating.
You can call it paranoia - but its a realistic prospect, that a split cabinet becomes a distraction that creates an accidental no deal.
"The party's culture and media spokesman Pete Wishart last night confirmed the Nationalists would look to create a new Scottish public service broadcaster." - "There would also be serious concerns over the Scottish Government exerting political influence over the new broadcaster".
If there are significant members of the cabinet, attempting to weaken the UK's position (not preparing for No Deal might be one part of that), It may be the risk that has to be taken.
Whether you're a remainer or a leaver, it helps nobody to have a cabinet that is working to undermine the purpose of the government's policy.
The clearest possible sign that Brexit is going badly is the ever-increasing level of paranoia that Leave supporters are demonstrating.
You can call it paranoia - but its a realistic prospect, that a split cabinet becomes a distraction that creates an accidental no deal.
I call it paranoia when you and others suggest that significant members of the cabinet are attempting to weaken the UK's position. Throw a check on yourself and realise just how insulting and ridiculous it is to claim that only those fully signed up to Brexit have Britain's best interests in mind.
The problem with the new parliamentary boundaries is not so much te reduction of 50 seats but having to have constituency electorates within plus or minus 5% of the average instead of plus or minus 10%. Without flexibility this causes constituencies to be have unnatural boundaries in many cases.
Comments
As a professional negotiator of 25 years (and someone who had to play poker against the Shells and BPs and State Oil Companies of this world, mostly whilst holding an 8 high) and whose negotiating skills helped take a company from start-up to the edge of the FTSE100 in six years - I just despair at the awfulness of the Brexit process. From both sides.
https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/libdems/pages/8566/meta_images/original/key_battle-bus.jpg?1427691351
http://www.cityam.com/273738/london-retains-crown-top-spot-attracting-business-and
Edit: Trump of course not you Andy
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/10038528258
Just as long as they don’t have “chemicals”
A hard brexit will be a cathartic experience for a great many people. Which is why I am calling it an extinction level event for the politicians and parties who would be seen as responsible for it. Its all very well convincing people that well sir, there's nothing on Earth like a genuine, bona-fide, electrified, six-car monorail, but when they not only don't get a monorail but suffer the personal effects of an economy that suffers a crippling shock that takes away their standard of living, they'll be looking for someone to blame.
Looking more and more likely that the 25th Amendment could end all this. If Pence calls for it to be invoked he could find the votes he needs to become POTUS himself.
Otherwise he might find himself complimenting President Trump by accident
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernesto_Bertarelli
It must be a strange place, the Meekoverse.
It will be because Brexit is a shit idea, promoted by zealots, and implemented by idiots.
You voted for this shit show, not the EU.
https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/918482141117341696
Or risk a massive to do, with the risk of it failing.
Simples.
I'm not so convinced that we will be saved in this way. The powers that be have to look at the integrity of the whole in the long term, not just a short term bit of pain. A slowdown in exports to the EU will hit some like Holland, but on the flip side BMW will throw a bucket of money at Nedcar to make more MINI vehicles displaced out of Cowley.
Genuine question though - are our nutters likely to accept any kind of fudged figleaf deal? We absolutely won't get EEA access without £ and an element of free movement, which would surely be politically impossible for the current government to accept.
How's that one working out?
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/10/brexit-failing-because-its-being-negotiated-interests-conservative-party
Dublin is viewed as having little chance of winning either organization, which are being forced from London after Brexit, in part due to Ireland’s lack of natural geographical allies, the person said, who asked not to be named as deliberations are private. Frankfurt is viewed as one of the leading candidates for the EBA, while Amsterdam and Copenhagen are among the leading contenders for the EMA, the person said.
Failure to win either agency would also hurt the government’s effort to offset the impact of Brexit. With about 15 percent of its exports going to the U.K., Ireland is the EU nation most exposed to Brexit.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-09/ireland-said-to-brace-for-loss-in-fight-for-post-brexit-spoils
It seems that not many have the foggiest idea how it actually works.
The bigger picture extends to the idiots that represent us, clueless. In sport the senior people have mostly been in and around the game for decades, most politicians have no idea how business works.
As far as what the average voter wants out of Brexit, the ask from the EU27 is simple: control over immigration and an end to the free movement of people, without economic dislocation.
That’s exactly what HMG is trying to achieve.
The point is that the Tories are bidding for a "Dan Hannan Brexit" (emphasis on free trade deals and "sovereignty", apparently with no intention of reducing immigration numbers), when the average Leave voter couldn't give a stuff about doing trade deals with the rest of the world and has probably never even heard of the European Court of Justice, but primarily just wants less immigration.
I don't think the government can agree to anything beyond 2021 that isn't directly tied to a program in which we will actively participate - Erasmus, Open Skies, Horizon, ESA - that others from outside the 27 also participate in (EFTA/Israel/Non EU Eastern Europeans/Turkey etc). That would be politically untenable.
Merkel and others must know this, so their end game could be one of three choices - No Deal (unlikely), A late compromise (much more likely), or possibly creating a pressure situation which brings a change of UK govt, with or without a delay to the 2019 deadline (unlikely but the 'remain' angle).
On a personal level, Farage's Little Englanders taking over the country is something I will always regret.
The ship of state is truly a ship of fools.
One of the difficulties the EU27 have is that our team are all over the place.
Car crash Brexit nailed on, as I have been saying for a year.
That tempting job in NZ gets more appealing, I want to be well clear as the airborne turd hits the fan!
IT's all speculation though as they are being more disciplined in public, and the European press isn't actually very probative.
According to remainers I am going to get exactly what I wanted to happen, ultra hard brexit followed by a far left Corbyn government. Sadly as remainers are almost always wrong I can't celebrate yet
Whether you're a remainer or a leaver, it helps nobody to have a cabinet that is working to undermine the purpose of the government's policy.
(Edit : I mean that partly in the sense that a poor fall out of the existing arrangements could happen by accident, just because the priorities of cabinet are split, and the EU might not be as unified at it appears either).
And what the food industry collectively is saying is that a hard exit from the single market threatens both their ability to source ingredients / finished goods (we import 35% of food including food "made" in the UK), threatens the ability to supply supermarkets, threatens their source of labour, of transport, the already thin margins they make, and the financial ability of consumers to buy products where prices are already rising faster than wages.
I've been told several times on here by the happy-clappy end of the leaver community (I voted leave too remember) that all these fears are remoaner lies, usually followed by where we could be in 5 years. Its where we'll be in 5 days after a hard brexit that is focusing the minds of my industry, and with respect we know how things work.
"The party's culture and media spokesman Pete Wishart last night confirmed the Nationalists would look to create a new Scottish public service broadcaster." - "There would also be serious concerns over the Scottish Government exerting political influence over the new broadcaster".
Repeat ad nauseum until it all falls apart...
Drone strikes on terrorists, no can't agree to that. Totally debunked non-scientific medicine, yeah I'm on board...
Hammond more murine than ovine ...
https://twitter.com/wabbey/status/918494974894895106