Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Picking up the pieces. Disintegrating Europe
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Picking up the pieces. Disintegrating Europe
EU: Support for Independence, Katapult poll of polls:
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Edit: and an excellent piece, thanks Alastair.
I note that in every case where separatist sentiment is surging (bar Sardinia), the secessionist part is at least as rich as its host
Interesting indeed. Someone yesterday was suggesting an impact of increased globilization wherein we still care, in identity terms, with our very immediate neighbours, but harder to identify with the larger national boundaries. If regions are wealthier and feel a lack of connection to the larger state like that, it would explain why they are more keen to break away.
But doesn't that line above contradict the bit immediately below, placing support for Venetian independence as part of the trend of 'strident nativism' of the poor and ill-educated? Do the poor and ill-educated make up the majority in a wealthy/average region? I guess with so many different areas no trend will be perfect in any case, too many local factors.
Some tough issues for the EU to grapple with in particular.
On the whole, small countries work best insofar as they have the power to influnce events - it's not accidental that Switzerland and the Scandinavian countries are top of most "nice to live in" lists, and some of the ex-Soviet and ex-Baltic small countries seem to be doing well. The two snags are that historically small countries got invaded by big ones (less common now) and globalisation makes it harder to control your fate (but this applies to medium-sized countries too).
Perhaps the long-term goal of the EU should be to hold the ring for the big stuff that needs a continent-wide negotiating punch, while leaving as much as possible to small countries regions that people readily identify with. In theory this is built into the subsidiarity principle, but in practice national governments have been able to block empowerment of the regions. Maybe Juncker should be positively encouraging Scottish and Cornish separatism...
https://www.geolsoc.org.uk/Plate-Tectonics/Chap4-Plate-Tectonics-of-the-UK/Caledonian-Orogeney
http://devonwindmills.co.uk/
It is true that many of the older countries were forged by war, conquest and colonialism. Now that those have gone, perhaps we can revert to older more local forms.
Also worth noting is that seccessionism is not just a European phenomenon. West Papua wants a referendum, and the Rohingya are not the only Myamarese people wanting autonomy, as indeed do the Sikhs, Sind, Mindanao etc etc.
Incidently the Iapetus was discovered and named by my tutor at Cardiff University, Rodney Gayer.
In the extremely unlikely event that she is still prime minister when the Commons vote on the Brexit deal, which may happen in 2019, she will resign within hours if she loses the vote.
The chance of her fighting the next general election is tiny in any scenario.
And what’s wrong with its traditional name in English, “Bohemia”, anyway?
The reunification of Germany, Vietnam, Yemen, all spring to mind. There is apparently a movement in Moldova to unify with Romania, and Greek Cypriots wanted to join Greece in the sixties. Newfoundland joined Canada in 1947, after being a separate Dominion. Any other postwar voluntary mergers?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-41541063
Sikkim joined India in the Seventies too.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/27/banned-west-papua-independence-petition-un
In the case of European secessionist movements, the EU is surely part of the reason why they feel so secure. Why cling to Spain for safety, when you can cling to the EU? It is not as though most of the continental European countries have a long history of consistent national identity. Take Veneto, for example. It was an independent state for centuries until 1797. Since then it has been ruled by Napoleon, by the Habsburgs, briefly independent again but allied with Sardinia, then under Austrian rule again, then briefly back under the nominal rule of the French, then part of Italy, was a battleground in the First World War, then under Fascist Italy, then a vassal state of the Nazis, then lost some bits to Yugoslavia, and finally joined the Italian republic. Culturally it has little in common with the Italian south. Given all this, and the economic and human-rights safety net of the EU, is it any wonder that secession doesn't seem an outlandish idea?
No wonder Victor Orban is keen to recognise Catalonia, for example. There are ample areas of Romania, Serbia or Slovakia where Hungarians are in a majority.
Historically, small border disputes in Eastern Europe have a habit of engulfing the entire continent in War.
The most ridiculous example of a territory that clearly does not belong to its present country is South Tyrol. An ancient entity, the Tyrol, was split, and the southern portion given to Italy as a war prize after WW1.
It is even today overwhelmingly German speaking. I would have thought if Catalonia does make it, South Tyrol will surely want to re-join the rest of the Tyrol in Austria
Almost beyond parody.
They live quietly in a little cottage and grow apples, with a little income from the mill, while I dash about doing animal welfare and political stuff and travelling constantly. Sneaking bits of us envy each other, I think. Happiness comes in various packages, doesn't it?
And the south has not much love for the north in return. Italian unification was not peaceful - certainly in the south, where a minor civil war happened - and has always had an element of something imposed by the French and their allies in Savoy. A coherent and effective Italian state barely emerged before two world wars engulfed it. Little wonder Italians are keen on the EU.
There’s also the Russia-Belarus “Union State” which Belarus’s Lukashenko hoped would be a resurrection of the Soviet Union, but which never really got anywhere either. (Although when we went to Russia last month the immigration form was a joint Russian Federation / Republic of Belarus one.)
Scotland score!!!!
Had to manage who worked with who in those days.
This story seems (ahem) somewhat interesting:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-41542875
https://twitter.com/ariztegui/status/917028283555991552
Will try and write the post-race ramble, having watched highlights.
Identity's a complicated beast, and not helped by cackhanded, narrow-minded, short-sighted and bloody idiotic constitutional tinkering.
Dominic Raab said while the UK had to "strive for the very best outcome" from Brexit negotiations, it had to "prepare for all eventualities".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41544588
Nae problemo.
A year ago, a friend and I left a referendum results party early and passed a lone Brexiteer MP, a young star occasionally tipped for the Tory leadership. Drunkenly bellowing at a friend, he roared with success. “Sterling falling? Who the fuck cares if sterling’s falling? You’ll be all right; I’ll be all right. It’s a revolution!”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/17/tory-party-reputation-new-leader
We're going to the qualifiers ...............................
The Tartan Army will be great for the tournament.
Would love to see Barry Bannan perform on the highest stage too.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/japan-post-race-analysis-2017.html
I think the point Richard is making is that people don't feel there is much downside in demanding new arrangements.
Now, the question is whether they feel that way because they are struggling with no healthcare, no food, and no hope. Or whether it's because they feel secure that the the top part of Maslow's hierarchy of needs will continue to be met irrespective of who the government it.
Let's not forget: people in "the West" live longer, are healthier, better educated and have more material needs met than at any time in human history. What they struggle with is that the traditional measure of worth in the eyes of others is their social status - usually determined by them being in a secure and specialised job.
That makes it different to all the other examples cited, including Trump, who not only scored a minority of the vote, but was nationally outpolled by Hillary.
https://twitter.com/CalumSteeleSPF/status/917085272831090694