It is not a different poll.It is the same poll and the Holyrood ratings which show the SNP at 42 per cent and Labour and Tory 17, yes 17 points, behind at 25 per cent!!! I would say that is a great poll for the SNP after 10 years, yes 10 years, in Government.
There have been three real Scottish polls since the election (Panelbase in the Sunday Times, Survation in the Mail and now YouGov in The Times).
All three have shown SNP support increasing since the election and winning more seats of all the other parties. The Panelbase poll was hidden for a week by the ST, The Mail published the figures in 2pt type and todays Times "forgot" to publish the Westminster ratings.
I would have expected Pol Betting posters to be wise to the machinations of the deadwood press in Scotland but apparantly not.. However, biased coverage doesn't change the reality that the SNP vote on three polls (all rebased on the General Election) is on the up.
It will take more than the embittered Grant Shapps to remove May -although go she will before the next election. She has been lucky. She was lucky that a pygmy like Grant Shapps tried to topple her. A political crisis will be her downfall and the most likely crisis will be the loss of a by election in a safe Tory seat. The Eastbourne by election in 1990 led to Thatcher's downfall within a month. May's equivalent of Eastbourne will come.
It is of course bad news for Labour because if there is one thing that Labour wants more than anything is to face May at the next election.
It will take more than the embittered Grant Shapps to remove May -although go she will before the next election. She has been lucky. She was lucky that a pygmy like Grant Shapps tried to topple her. A political crisis will be her downfall and the most likely crisis will be the loss of a by election in a safe Tory seat. The Eastbourne by election in 1990 led to Thatcher's downfall within a month. May's equivalent of Eastbourne will come.
It is of course bad news for Labour because if there is one thing that Labour wants more than anything is to face May at the next election.
I doubt Shapps did this of his own accord. He was the pit canary, sent in by more powerful forces to judge whether the time is yet right for a full-frontal assault, and to remind Theresa that her days are limited.
Shapps appears to have enough chutzpah to think he is important enough to start the ball rolling!
It will take more than the embittered Grant Shapps to remove May -although go she will before the next election. She has been lucky. She was lucky that a pygmy like Grant Shapps tried to topple her. A political crisis will be her downfall and the most likely crisis will be the loss of a by election in a safe Tory seat. The Eastbourne by election in 1990 led to Thatcher's downfall within a month. May's equivalent of Eastbourne will come.
It is of course bad news for Labour because if there is one thing that Labour wants more than anything is to face May at the next election.
It will take more than the embittered Grant Shapps to remove May -although go she will before the next election. She has been lucky. She was lucky that a pygmy like Grant Shapps tried to topple her. A political crisis will be her downfall and the most likely crisis will be the loss of a by election in a safe Tory seat. The Eastbourne by election in 1990 led to Thatcher's downfall within a month. May's equivalent of Eastbourne will come.
It is of course bad news for Labour because if there is one thing that Labour wants more than anything is to face May at the next election.
I doubt Shapps did this of his own accord. He was the pit canary, sent in by more powerful forces to judge whether the time is yet right for a full-frontal assault, and to remind Theresa that her days are limited.
Shapps appears to have enough chutzpah to think he is important enough to start the ball rolling!
If he did act alone I suspect it was out of sheer panic. He knows his constituency, and dozens like it, will fall to Jezza if the Theresa problem isn't fixed, and it will soon reach the point where the damage is irreversible. Time is running out.
Just to get this right - you are quite happy with the projections below as long as Ms Davidsons declining popularity is declining slower than Ms Sturgeon's popularity while the Prime Minster unpopularity in Scotland is at recoird levels.
List of predicted seat changes
Seat County/Area Predicted Change MP as at 2017 Angus Tayside NAT gain from CON : Kirstene Hair Ayr Carrick Lanark NAT gain from CON : Bill Grant Caithness Highland NAT gain from LIB : Jamie Stone Dunb East Glasgow NAT gain from LIB : Jo Swinson Edinb Wst Edinburgh NAT gain from LIB : Christine Jardine Gordon Grampian NAT gain from CON : Colin Clark Ochil hire Central NAT gain from CON : Luke Graham Stirling Central NAT gain from CON : Stephen Kerr
In reality I would expect the SNP to win very few of those seats and would probably lose all their Glasgow seats to Labour - plus quite a few others in the Central Belt.
Shhhh! Don't talk about ratings - but you're right - with Corbyn's very strong ratings and Nicola's 20 point drop (compared to Ruth's 4) I suspect the VI numbers flatter to deceive......the surprise is, given May's atrocious ratings the Tories aren't doing worse....
Maybe the tories need to revisit that 'separate scottish party' idea before that changes.
Agree entirely - the Scottish conservative and UNIONIST Party must never again be seen as - or treated as - a London subsidiary.....and if they have different policies, why not? Much of Scottish domestic legislation is devolved in any case....
It will take more than the embittered Grant Shapps to remove May -although go she will before the next election. She has been lucky. She was lucky that a pygmy like Grant Shapps tried to topple her. A political crisis will be her downfall and the most likely crisis will be the loss of a by election in a safe Tory seat. The Eastbourne by election in 1990 led to Thatcher's downfall within a month. May's equivalent of Eastbourne will come.
It is of course bad news for Labour because if there is one thing that Labour wants more than anything is to face May at the next election.
Put bluntly, wrong.
Eastbourne was a factor but it was far from the only reason why Thatcher went. The collapse of the Thatcher-Howe relationship and his removal left her bereft of allies and allowed Howe and Lawson and others to act spurred on by Howe's brilliant demolition of Thatcher in his resignation speech to the Commons which was far more effective than that of LS Amery against Chamberlain in 1940.
Amery only quoted Cromwell, Howe used cricket - far more effective.
If May sacked Johnson how would he use his resignation speech ? He COULD produce a tour de force which would finish her or it might be a damp squib.
I suppose IF the Conservatives lost control of Wandsworth, Westminster, Hillingdon and Kensington and Chelsea next May, that could precipitate a crisis of sorts.
Just to get this right - you are quite happy with the projections below as long as Ms Davidsons declining popularity is declining slower than Ms Sturgeon's popularity while the Prime Minster unpopularity in Scotland is at recoird levels.
List of predicted seat changes
Seat County/Area Predicted Change MP as at 2017 Angus Tayside NAT gain from CON : Kirstene Hair Ayr Carrick Lanark NAT gain from CON : Bill Grant Caithness Highland NAT gain from LIB : Jamie Stone Dunb East Glasgow NAT gain from LIB : Jo Swinson Edinb Wst Edinburgh NAT gain from LIB : Christine Jardine Gordon Grampian NAT gain from CON : Colin Clark Ochil hire Central NAT gain from CON : Luke Graham Stirling Central NAT gain from CON : Stephen Kerr
In reality I would expect the SNP to win very few of those seats and would probably lose all their Glasgow seats to Labour - plus quite a few others in the Central Belt.
I was amazed at how close Labour came to regaining some of those Glascow seats in addition to the one(?) that they won. A couple were within a hundred votes I believe.
Indeed - the SNP majority in all their Glasgow seats was pretty narrow. I expect them to lose them all next time.
It is not a different poll.It is the same poll and the Holyrood ratings which show the SNP at 42 per cent and Labour and Tory 17, yes 17 points, behind at 25 per cent!!! I would say that is a great poll for the SNP after 10 years, yes 10 years, in Government.
There have been three real Scottish polls since the election (Panelbase in the Sunday Times, Survation in the Mail and now YouGov in The Times).
All three have shown SNP support increasing since the election and winning more seats of all the other parties. The Panelbase poll was hidden for a week by the ST, The Mail published the figures in 2pt type and todays Times "forgot" to publish the Westminster ratings.
I would have expected Pol Betting posters to be wise to the machinations of the deadwood press in Scotland but apparantly not.. However, biased coverage doesn't change the reality that the SNP vote on three polls (all rebased on the General Election) is on the up.
As any early election will demonstrate.
According to the article the poll was conducted between 2nd October and 5th October. Surely that makes it pretty new?
So it looks like the gloss has come off the SNP in Holyrood - but heh - bung a few more MPs Westminster's way.....(if the Glasgow seats hold out against Corbynmania - now 20 points ahead of Nicola.....)
It is not a different poll.It is the same poll and the Holyrood ratings which show the SNP at 42 per cent and Labour and Tory 17, yes 17 points, behind at 25 per cent!!! I would say that is a great poll for the SNP after 10 years, yes 10 years, in Government.
There have been three real Scottish polls since the election (Panelbase in the Sunday Times, Survation in the Mail and now YouGov in The Times).
All three have shown SNP support increasing since the election and winning more seats of all the other parties. The Panelbase poll was hidden for a week by the ST, The Mail published the figures in 2pt type and todays Times "forgot" to publish the Westminster ratings.
I would have expected Pol Betting posters to be wise to the machinations of the deadwood press in Scotland but apparantly not.. However, biased coverage doesn't change the reality that the SNP vote on three polls (all rebased on the General Election) is on the up.
As any early election will demonstrate.
According to the article the poll was conducted between 2nd October and 5th October. Surely that makes it pretty new?
So it looks like the gloss has come off the SNP in Holyrood - but heh - bung a few more MPs Westminster's way.....(if the Glasgow seats hold out against Corbynmania - now 20 points ahead of Nicola.....)
I doubt that the SNP would manage 35% at a Westminster election.
So it looks like the gloss has come off the SNP in Holyrood - but heh - bung a few more MPs Westminster's way.....(if the Glasgow seats hold out against Corbynmania - now 20 points ahead of Nicola.....)
I doubt that the SNP would manage 35% at a Westminster election.
FWIW in the most recent Westminster polling the SNP is actually polling over 40%:
Suffice to say the MSM as are many on this site only seem able to look at opinion polls through the prism of the SNP being a busted flush. I think given the Tories and Labor issues the SNP are as likely to strengthen their current support levels as lose them.
It will take more than the embittered Grant Shapps to remove May -although go she will before the next election. She has been lucky. She was lucky that a pygmy like Grant Shapps tried to topple her. A political crisis will be her downfall and the most likely crisis will be the loss of a by election in a safe Tory seat. The Eastbourne by election in 1990 led to Thatcher's downfall within a month. May's equivalent of Eastbourne will come.
It is of course bad news for Labour because if there is one thing that Labour wants more than anything is to face May at the next election.
It will take more than the embittered Grant Shapps to remove May -although go she will before the next election. She has been lucky. She was lucky that a pygmy like Grant Shapps tried to topple her. A political crisis will be her downfall and the most likely crisis will be the loss of a by election in a safe Tory seat. The Eastbourne by election in 1990 led to Thatcher's downfall within a month. May's equivalent of Eastbourne will come.
It is of course bad news for Labour because if there is one thing that Labour wants more than anything is to face May at the next election.
I doubt Shapps did this of his own accord. He was the pit canary, sent in by more powerful forces to judge whether the time is yet right for a full-frontal assault, and to remind Theresa that her days are limited.
Shapps appears to have enough chutzpah to think he is important enough to start the ball rolling!
If he did act alone I suspect it was out of sheer panic. He knows his constituency, and dozens like it, will fall to Jezza if the Theresa problem isn't fixed, and it will soon reach the point where the damage is irreversible. Time is running out.
I thought a journalist picked up the rumour about his politicking and asked him the direct question, giving him the choice between denial and his story then unravelling, or coming clean. So he was pushed into being the public figure rather than pushing for it?
There is a very obvious reason why a 17 pt lead is good news for the SNP in Holyrood ratings.
And that is they are now 18 month into their third term of office. A quick comparison with the similar period in first term (8pt lead over Labour YouGov Oct 2008), or a 3pt lead over Labour (YouGov Oct 2012) in their second term would tell you why. Their constituency rating at 42 per cent is very high and higher than in either of these comparable periods.
It is true that Sturgeon is now less popular than Salmond was. However she is light years more popular than May (-49%!!). And anybody in office who avoids a negative rating is doing reasonably well.
It is also the case that the declining positive popularity ratings of Ruth Davidson (+17),who has never run anything are only half of those on which Salmond finished after 7 years in office (+33).
It will take more than the embittered Grant Shapps to remove May -although go she will before the next election. She has been lucky. She was lucky that a pygmy like Grant Shapps tried to topple her. A political crisis will be her downfall and the most likely crisis will be the loss of a by election in a safe Tory seat. The Eastbourne by election in 1990 led to Thatcher's downfall within a month. May's equivalent of Eastbourne will come.
It is of course bad news for Labour because if there is one thing that Labour wants more than anything is to face May at the next election.
It will take more than the embittered Grant Shapps to remove May -although go she will before the next election. She has been lucky. She was lucky that a pygmy like Grant Shapps tried to topple her. A political crisis will be her downfall and the most likely crisis will be the loss of a by election in a safe Tory seat. The Eastbourne by election in 1990 led to Thatcher's downfall within a month. May's equivalent of Eastbourne will come.
It is of course bad news for Labour because if there is one thing that Labour wants more than anything is to face May at the next election.
I doubt Shapps did this of his own accord. He was the pit canary, sent in by more powerful forces to judge whether the time is yet right for a full-frontal assault, and to remind Theresa that her days are limited.
Shapps appears to have enough chutzpah to think he is important enough to start the ball rolling!
If he did act alone I suspect it was out of sheer panic. He knows his constituency, and dozens like it, will fall to Jezza if the Theresa problem isn't fixed, and it will soon reach the point where the damage is irreversible. Time is running out.
I thought a journalist picked up the rumour about his politicking and asked him the direct question, giving him the choice between denial and his story then unravelling, or coming clean. So he was pushed into being the public figure rather than pushing for it?
He said on R4 that the Whips outed him to the Times and he wanted to do it privately....on R4, BBC1, BBCNews, SKY, LBC.....
Comments
It is not a different poll.It is the same poll and the Holyrood ratings which show the SNP at 42 per cent and Labour and Tory 17, yes 17 points, behind at 25 per cent!!! I would say that is a great poll for the SNP after 10 years, yes 10 years, in Government.
There have been three real Scottish polls since the election (Panelbase in the Sunday Times, Survation in the Mail and now YouGov in The Times).
All three have shown SNP support increasing since the election and winning more seats of all the other parties. The Panelbase poll was hidden for a week by the ST, The Mail published the figures in 2pt type and todays Times "forgot" to publish the Westminster ratings.
I would have expected Pol Betting posters to be wise to the machinations of the deadwood press in Scotland but apparantly not.. However, biased coverage doesn't change the reality that the SNP vote on three polls (all rebased on the General Election) is on the up.
As any early election will demonstrate.
Eastbourne was a factor but it was far from the only reason why Thatcher went. The collapse of the Thatcher-Howe relationship and his removal left her bereft of allies and allowed Howe and Lawson and others to act spurred on by Howe's brilliant demolition of Thatcher in his resignation speech to the Commons which was far more effective than that of LS Amery against Chamberlain in 1940.
Amery only quoted Cromwell, Howe used cricket - far more effective.
If May sacked Johnson how would he use his resignation speech ? He COULD produce a tour de force which would finish her or it might be a damp squib.
I suppose IF the Conservatives lost control of Wandsworth, Westminster, Hillingdon and Kensington and Chelsea next May, that could precipitate a crisis of sorts.
A new poll has been published which suggests the SNP will lose their pro-independence majority at the 2021 Scottish elections.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/916632566974828544
So it looks like the gloss has come off the SNP in Holyrood - but heh - bung a few more MPs Westminster's way.....(if the Glasgow seats hold out against Corbynmania - now 20 points ahead of Nicola.....)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41538762
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/search?updated-max=2017-09-19T15:22:00+01:00&max-results=10
Suffice to say the MSM as are many on this site only seem able to look at opinion polls through the prism of the SNP being a busted flush. I think given the Tories and Labor issues the SNP are as likely to strengthen their current support levels as lose them.
SNP 40 (+3)
Lab 30 (+3)
Tory 23 (-6)
LIB 5 (-2)
YouGov 2-5 Oct changes on 2017 result
There is a very obvious reason why a 17 pt lead is good news for the SNP in Holyrood ratings.
And that is they are now 18 month into their third term of office. A quick comparison with the similar period in first term (8pt lead over Labour YouGov Oct 2008), or a 3pt lead over Labour (YouGov Oct 2012) in their second term would tell you why. Their constituency rating at 42 per cent is very high and higher than in either of these comparable periods.
voting intentions are for political parties.....
With Labour up 3 points those SNP Glasgow seats may be on a shoogly peg....
It is also the case that the declining positive popularity ratings of Ruth Davidson (+17),who has never run anything are only half of those on which Salmond finished after 7 years in office (+33).
NEW THREAD
Carlotta
And neither Corbyn ot Davidson has run a tap. Sturgeon is in office like May.
If the SNP poll ratings weren't so positive then the establishment press would not go to such trouble in attempting to hide them from their readers.