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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Safe for now – but for how long?
Napoleon famously demanded that his generals be lucky. It’s a wonderful attribute to have but the emperor really should have been more specific. What’s important is being lucky at the right time. On that score, Theresa May has fallen short and it will cost her her premiership.
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Corbyn had grown into his role over the last two years and the last one in particular. He looks comfortable in a suit, indeed quite dapper, and his style has softened to a more subtle one. This works well as he comes across as a genial old prophet. He has retained his stubbiness but is unfailingly polite when attacked, and listens before replying. British people like that. We like his amiable eccentricities and enthusiasms.
The cult and football chant do seem to slightly embarrass Corbyn, but he manages it with reasonable modesty. Once again his personal self effacement contrasts well with May's claim of "Strong and Stable", which sounds very un-British in its arrogance and autocracy.
It is said that important people talk of ideas, and unimportant people of people. This is where the Tories are holed below the waterline. They concentrate on attacking the people on the Labour front bench (when not briefing against each other) while Labour has the philosophical field of ideas for themselves.
The Tories are a void of ideas, and what few they have are an incoherent mix of measures pinched from other parties. May cannot repair this, and Tories need to resolve their battle of ideas before they can function again. The reason for a leadership contest being necessary is not just to clear out the zombie of May, but to resolve their intellectual deficit. They need a better plan than being the party of anti-Corbyn.
A plan for Brexit and for Britain is going to be a bodged job under May, and everyone can see that, not least the EU, but also the British electorate.
" Oh Jeremy Corbyn" started as a football chant (at Tranmere it became a theme) but soon the crowd will be booing the blue team off with a chant of "you don't know what you're doing".
"Just the usual combination of ambition and lack of self assessment"
A smart lady and a masterful put-down. Definitely one to watch.
The 2017 election will need further analysis, but for me summed up by two clips. Mrs May canvassing in Scotland:
https://youtu.be/XFbEB-k6TmA
And Jeremy Corbyn at Tranmere. This day changed the campaign, with the youthful enthusiasm going viral:
https://youtu.be/F1F-LSTethE
Doesn't mean that you are wrong of course. She was fatally damaged by her inability to campaign in the GE. This conference showed that she hasn't really learned from those failures.
strong and stable government
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article169399036/Jeder-dritte-Bundesbuerger-fuer-vorzeitigen-Abgang-Merkels.html
My own assessment is that he would do enormous damage to the British state, which if he gains control of (ie through a majority government stuffed with his fellow travellers), would simply be reorientated to promote the aims of international socialism. The damage would be lasting and terrible.
His actual ideas are more eccentric populism than genuine socialism. It is Robin Hood. Take from the rich and give to the poor. These economics have been discredited over and over again. The tax reciepts would just diminish. The cost of borrowing would spiral out of control. How is it ever going to be different this time around?
People have been duped. They are desperate and have succumbed to delusions in the face of an existential crisis. But the problem is that the capitalist system has been mismanaged, not that it is flawed in its own right. The ideology of neoliberalism needs to be reversed. Stronger governments. More international co-operation. Better regulation of business. Fairer taxes.
That is the answer, not a unilateral declaration of international socialism. People are not willing to give up their cheap imported food, iphones and foreign holidays. They expect efficient public services and demand more and more all the time.
http://www.independent.ie/entertainment/music/music-news/u2-havent-wrote-any-masterpieces-for-a-band-that-fkin-big-with-all-the-fkin-stuff-theyve-got-they-should-be-writing-masterpieces-liam-gallagher-36202471.html
It allows all other Tory MPs to witch-hunt very quickly, the content is rather leakable, and stops anything getting real momentum.
Pride, One, Angel of Harlem, When Love Comes To Town, and anything from The Joshua Tree are bona fide masterpieces.
Hold Me, Thrill Me, Kiss Me, Kill Me another seminal song
And about 90% of people in relationships in the last 30 years have sung With Or Without You at their other halves.
She's got a PMQs on Wednesday, it could be brutal, she could me monstered by Jeremy Corbyn, which is like being savaged by a dead gnat.
Assuming no events dear boy, the Sunday morning thread is just for you.
His argument falls flat on his own lack of achievement over the last two decades.
As I've said a few days ago we do need not only steady leadership right now but non-factional independent of thought leadership. And the Tories fundamental problem is that shit as May is the others jostling for position are just as shit. A Brexit Secretary who talks up a tough negotiation from a position of massive weakness and folds at the first opportunity. A chancellor not in command of the economy inside the cabinet never mind in the country. A foreign secretary who thinks foreign types should all give glorious Britannia what we deserve. A loon from the middle ages who looks at the way the Saudis treat women and thinks "good idea".
A party full of genuine politicians would recognise their weakness and look to a way to stymie the bleeding - May must go, but the replacement is there only to provide a steady platform for Brexit and to allow the next generation to come forward. But the once ruthlessly effective Tories can't even see that, because of course they are ok no one will support Labour policies except the ones they are forced to steal because most people support them.
So fine. Leave her be. Maybe it's time for the Tories to divorce into their respective corners and stop pretending they actually have anything in common any more. The great realignment of parties is overdue anyway, perhaps that's the reason to leave May in place - damage the party so massively that a split becomes inevitable
Reform the Lords, cut the number of MPs in half, remove either County or District Councils would save us a fortune and give these idiots less places to hide.
F1: quite a few penalties. Grid mostly good, Stroll could be in a better position, though.
An unnamed source said: “Corbyn is beginning to be taken seriously in Brussels. People didn’t quite know what he wants or what he thinks but that is changing.”
Staying in Customs Union and Single Market, while establishing the residency of our EU migrants does work as a solution, and sorts the NI border too.
Kipper apoplexy guaranteed though.
May has never been a sympathetic character. Much too robotic for that. Always a politician and never a person. That McDonnell Corbyn and McClusky have got away with painting themselves as the cuddly alternative is testament to that.
Well now we've seen her as a human being with human frailties. A vulnerable woman but a trouper who carried on when most of us would have thrown in the towel. Sort out Brexit this could be the making of her.
You are right to point out that there's a lopsided gender split here which might lead to us not giving sufficient weight to (if there is one) a feminine perspective where that differs substantially from the masculine.
One wonders how she got so far in politics on so little ability. Tories fantasised about having Maggie back. They didnt get it.
One good thing is that the next big female Tory will not be endlessly measured against Maggie, but rather the much lower benchmark of May.
Labour and Corbyn should be out of sight and they are not. The audience in question time were far from Corbyn friendly and the various vox pops have shown considerable support for May
I have no idea how this pans out and to be honest neither has anyone else. Politics has never been so unpredictable
She has variable judgement and a weak team around her. Nothing about this week changes that. So we may find ourselves here again and again.
If she had not called that election, the cough would not have mattered.
It is curious that both Labour and the Conservatives are from time to time posing with policies which they have lifted straight from the Liberal Democrats, and even from the old Liberal Party. They do this, not because they believe in these policies, but because they know that they are inherently reasonable and attractive. They do it to entice electors to lend them their votes - so that they can impose their own unattractive agenda.
So a shake up of the moribund party structure? Yes, indeed, yes please! The sooner the better, Mr Pioneers. Liberal-minded people need to come together under the Lib Dem banner, and leave the hard-liners to argue for the extreme policies that they really want to implement.
And the first step in this process is to change the voting system, so that electors have a real say in who represents them. That is what we really mean when we talk about "taking back control".
This place is full of people who live in echo chambers, mainly egotistical, opinionated men. You know a few women who don't rate May, I'd suggest based on previous predictions your compass isn't very accurate.
"Staying in Customs Union and Single Market."
The Kippers won't mind that - it's what goes with it. The EU are adamant that that FOM, making our own laws etc is wedded to this, therefore you can't have one without the other. It means not leaving the EU in any form whatsoever. I'm sure Starmer will describe it as a price worth paying, but the intention is never to leave.
What's wrong with being honest and stating ... "I disagree with the nation's verdict, I don't accept it, and we've no intention of leaving the EU."
"Her problem is a bit deeper. I don't think she has any core beliefs."
Spot on, she stand for nothing. Recent results have shown the public is tired of nodding dogs, she needs to explain who she is and what she stands for.
Massive gender gap still in voting intention (via YouGov, today):
Men: Con 45 Lab 36 (Con +9)
Women: Lab 47 Con 35 (Lab +12)
21-point differential overall.
The polls were wrong last time on two main points. Jezza reckoned on getting previous non voters to vote. He also concentrated on domestic bread and butter issues like austerity. This worked on a higher proportion of kippers than pundits expected. He largely ignored Brexit in an election fought on that issue.
Brexit is not making progress, storm clouds are gathering and we have an autumn budget brewing. I cannot see it getting better for May. They are selling managerialism but by a manager who no one thinks is up to the job.
The first rule of sales is to believe in the product. You cannot sell something that you believe is rubbish, and May is rubbish.
The nightmare for the Tories is an unexpected government collapse that provokes another sudden election with May in charge. That would put Jezza in no 10.
She has one thing left to do politically, securing her reputation and legacy. Until that is done she won't want to go. Policies are merely tools for repairing that reputation.
She's not a bad person, but will never get to be a great leader in the way she wants. Those that get to the very top, like Thatcher, Attlee and Blair all want power to do something.
Proof, were it needed, that women love spending other people's money
On re-reading, my previous comment might be confusing.
Basically, the EU are saying we can only stay in the common market if we obey all the rules. That means staying in the EU without changes. Does Keir believe we can negotiate access without this? I personally find this posturing insulting to my intelligence, but perhaps I'm being touchy?
Mrs Fox certainly is, though generally not taken with politics, as is Fox Jr's girlfriend. Granny fox voted Leave, and I posted here how several of my female work colleagues were voting Leave.
It may well be that you have me confused with another PB poster.
As TSE points out, Labour has a massive polling lead amongst women.
Why have we been fed anti-EU propaganda by the mass media for the last 40 years? Because the EU was big enough and strong enough to stand up for us against the vested interests that control the mass media, and seek to control even more of it.
But if course it was just a cough and bad luck. I've often wondered at the good luck, good medicine and fortitude leaders have to so rarely seem to be ill during a campaign, when they cannot hideaway. I'm wiped out by colds a couple of times a year.
However, some sympathy for her doesn't mean her position is not incredibly weak. Perhaps she can regain some authority if she sticks it out, and if she can manage that we'll done her - Corbyn managed it after all - but at present it's clear her cabinet are briefing against each other and her on preparation for a future contest, but she has no power to discipline them, which hinders how much she can recover.
The question is: Can they deliver a better deal than the Tories?
I believe they can. They are not hemmed in by the same red lines*, and do not have to answer to a europhobic constituency in their party. The EU is more likely to find the Labour parties Europhile instincts more to their taste.
*Neither immigration nor European Courts would be non negotiatable for example.
Access to the single market is the same. Politically, it cannot be allowed otherwise the Germans will ask why are we contributing billions annually for this privilege. The rest of the so-called advantages are froth.
Anyone who says we can negotiate full access to the common market and leave the EU is therefore lying. Why are they saying it then? Because they're frit of stating outright they disagree with democracy. At least the Liberals are honest.
Not sure how many more unitaries are on the horizon though, it can be a complicated process
But, I could see the Tories down to 200 seats or so.
A thoughtful and well-argued piece as always, David, for which many thanks. I'm not a Conservative so have no insight into how Party members feel or think about the current leadership. Historically, there has been a residual loyalty toward the incumbent even when said leader's position has become untenable but with a much reduced membership maybe that no longer applies.
To state the obvious, it's the drip-drip of speculation, debate and gossip that does the damage. Parties which appear disunited rarely prosper and the perception of a Party or Government devouring itself from within isn't electorally appealing.
From an outside perspective, watching the Conservatives immolate will be great fun but of course it's far more serious and important than that. I'm not referring to the prospect of a Corbyn-led Government about which, actually, I'm fairly sanguine (I've no millions to transfer to Jersey, Canada or the Cayman Islands or wherever) but the sense that if we are reaching a point as in 1945 and 1979 when the model of governance is broken or appears broken, what are we doing to fix it ?
The crash of 2008 fatally undermined the centre-left's reputation for economic management which had supported such Governments for a decade but after a decade of "austerity" (however defined), the centre-right is in trouble too as people struggle along not making any meaningful progress and start asking why. Apart from asset values and those with money in the stock market, it's been hard going for millions of people - Corbyn offers a notion of an alternative and while we all know it lacks credibility (and many argued the same about monetarism once), it looks and sounds attractive.
"Neither immigration nor European Courts would be non negotiatable for example."
If so, will that not be seen as a defeat for the EU? People may even ask why it wasn't offered and been more acceptable if it had been offered when Cameron pretended to re-negotiate.
Hmm ... I may have answered my only question there.
One message of the last few years is that people are willing to vote for radicals, particularly when they feel under threat.
I think the bigger problem is that May has no answer to any of the perfectly decent questions you ask.
But, I think either Hunt and Gove would, not that they have the parliamentary numbers or direct mandate to do much with it, so I'd much prefer either to be PM.
https://twitter.com/jennifermerode/status/916580629902450689
FOM in search of work, but retrictions on claiming state aid, may well be viable from both sides, making for permanent CU.
The current Tory strategy is heading to rapid WTO hard Brexit. Either we start making proper plans for that, or we concede on FOM and European courts.
LINO? Yes, it would be seen that way by some.
Time for someone who is willing to try.
Do critics of neo liberalism dislike liberalism too? I genuinely don't know.
Labour and Corbyn should be out of sight and they are not. The audience in question time were far from Corbyn friendly and the various vox pops have shown considerable support for May
I have no idea how this pans out and to be honest neither has anyone else. Politics has never been so unpredictable
You contradict yourself. Counting on the polling, but saying things have never been so unpredictable.
The polls were wrong last time on two main points. Jezza reckoned on getting previous non voters to vote. He also concentrated on domestic bread and butter issues like austerity. This worked on a higher proportion of kippers than pundits expected. He largely ignored Brexit in an election fought on that issue.
Brexit is not making progress, storm clouds are gathering and we have an autumn budget brewing. I cannot see it getting better for May. They are selling managerialism but by a manager who no one thinks is up to the job.
The first rule of sales is to believe in the product. You cannot sell something that you believe is rubbish, and May is rubbish.
The nightmare for the Tories is an unexpected government collapse that provokes another sudden election with May in charge. That would put Jezza in no 10.
The real nightmare for the Tories is a Labour leader who galvanises the base as Corbyn does, while not frightening the floating voters, as Corbyn does. Luckily, they are not going to get one. But if Jezza did go and was replaced by someone like Emily Thornberry, I suspect we would be looking at a worse result for the Tories at the next GE than 1997.
Yes I would agree regarding Emily Thornberry , I was very impressed with her during the General Election campaign.
I find her very inconsistent. I've seen moments where she seems quick articulate and convincing, and others where she has bwen woeful.
When has she been woeful ?
You cannot expect me to recall on a tired Saturday morning specific dates and times, I think we can be permitted to speak generally? I can recall Corbyn making some decent points too, but would be hard pressed to come up with immediate examples.. In general impressions I have seen QT appeared appearances and interview clips where she came across very poorly, arrogant and unconvincing. But clearly she has some talent, so I don't know how much those were just off days
Yes that is fair enough.In my opinion she has been impressive , can not remember an embarrassing Abbot type occasion.
If you are unhappy with how things are, you vote for change, and don't spend too much time thinking about the detail of the only change on offer. History is full of such happenings.