Just a thought - what would happen if May called a pre-emptive confidence vote? (she can of course do that simply by getting 48 supportive MPs to write letters). That would be the obvious step if it was believed that a faction was holding on to 48 opposition letters waiting to deploy at a moment of their choosing.
Is that not what John Major did? My vague recollection was that that was not particularly successful in holding the party together albeit it did leave him as leader.
Just a thought - what would happen if May called a pre-emptive confidence vote? (she can of course do that simply by getting 48 supportive MPs to write letters). That would be the obvious step if it was believed that a faction was holding on to 48 opposition letters waiting to deploy at a moment of their choosing.
She’d technically win but be fatally damaged by the number who voted against her.
But you and the Osbornites are arguing that she is fatally damaged already! Better to be fatally damaged without risk of a challenge for several months/years.
- They dont have the numbers, hence the noise. - Shapps leading a challenge doesn't add to its credibility.....
They do have the numbers, which is why Theresa May can't sack anyone despite the siren calls of her dimmer supporters. What they do not have is an agreed successor, which is why the Prime Minister is safe for as long as she wants to hang on.
Tosh, I'm afraid.
If they had the numbers to get rid of her, the letters would have gone in. Instead of this hilarious botched Shapp's attempt.
No. The problem is the Davis supporters want Davis, not Boris, and vice versa. Add in the Gove, Hammond, Hunt, Mogg and Rudd supporters and you see the problem. They can get shot of May but cannot be sure of the right successor.
- They dont have the numbers, hence the noise. - Shapps leading a challenge doesn't add to its credibility.....
They do have the numbers, which is why Theresa May can't sack anyone despite the siren calls of her dimmer supporters. What they do not have is an agreed successor, which is why the Prime Minister is safe for as long as she wants to hang on.
Tosh, I'm afraid.
If they had the numbers to get rid of her, the letters would have gone in. Instead of this hilarious botched Shapp's attempt.
No. The problem is the Davis supporters want Davis, not Boris, and vice versa. Add in the Gove, Hammond, Hunt, Mogg and Rudd supporters and you see the problem. They can get shot of May but cannot be sure of the right successor.
Just a thought - what would happen if May called a pre-emptive confidence vote? (she can of course do that simply by getting 48 supportive MPs to write letters). That would be the obvious step if it was believed that a faction was holding on to 48 opposition letters waiting to deploy at a moment of their choosing.
Is that not what John Major did? My vague recollection was that that was not particularly successful in holding the party together albeit it did leave him as leader.
Just a thought - what would happen if May called a pre-emptive confidence vote? (she can of course do that simply by getting 48 supportive MPs to write letters). That would be the obvious step if it was believed that a faction was holding on to 48 opposition letters waiting to deploy at a moment of their choosing.
Is that not what John Major did? My vague recollection was that that was not particularly successful in holding the party together albeit it did leave him as leader.
- They dont have the numbers, hence the noise. - Shapps leading a challenge doesn't add to its credibility.....
They do have the numbers, which is why Theresa May can't sack anyone despite the siren calls of her dimmer supporters. What they do not have is an agreed successor, which is why the Prime Minister is safe for as long as she wants to hang on.
Tosh, I'm afraid.
If they had the numbers to get rid of her, the letters would have gone in. Instead of this hilarious botched Shapp's attempt.
No. The problem is the Davis supporters want Davis, not Boris, and vice versa. Add in the Gove, Hammond, Hunt, Mogg and Rudd supporters and you see the problem. They can get shot of May but cannot be sure of the right successor.
Sounds like they need a contest involving AV...
Well the Tory leadership is conducted under a form of quasi AV
The problem for the party is that, thanks to May's incompetence, this all takes place in the context of what is already a minority government. Would Nadine even take the whip if Boris becomes leader? Would it mean much if she did? I am not sure that a Boris led party would have a majority in the Commons even with DUP support.
The Tories need a leader which all the factions can just about live with to keep this show on the road through very difficult times. Its a depressing thought but they may conclude that that is May. What a mess.
- They dont have the numbers, hence the noise. - Shapps leading a challenge doesn't add to its credibility.....
They do have the numbers, which is why Theresa May can't sack anyone despite the siren calls of her dimmer supporters. What they do not have is an agreed successor, which is why the Prime Minister is safe for as long as she wants to hang on.
Tosh, I'm afraid.
If they had the numbers to get rid of her, the letters would have gone in. Instead of this hilarious botched Shapp's attempt.
No. The problem is the Davis supporters want Davis, not Boris, and vice versa. Add in the Gove, Hammond, Hunt, Mogg and Rudd supporters and you see the problem. They can get shot of May but cannot be sure of the right successor.
Then they don't actually have the numbers committed to ousting her. They have what we call in politics 'expressions of support'.
What they have is a few people committed, led by someone with little credibility and no parliamentary following.
- They dont have the numbers, hence the noise. - Shapps leading a challenge doesn't add to its credibility.....
They do have the numbers, which is why Theresa May can't sack anyone despite the siren calls of her dimmer supporters. What they do not have is an agreed successor, which is why the Prime Minister is safe for as long as she wants to hang on.
Tosh, I'm afraid.
If they had the numbers to get rid of her, the letters would have gone in. Instead of this hilarious botched Shapp's attempt.
No. The problem is the Davis supporters want Davis, not Boris, and vice versa. Add in the Gove, Hammond, Hunt, Mogg and Rudd supporters and you see the problem. They can get shot of May but cannot be sure of the right successor.
Sounds like they need a contest involving AV...
Well the Tory leadership is conducted under a form of quasi AV
Perhaps we need refreshing via an AV thread extolling the virtues of a superior system of resolving difficult elections?
- They dont have the numbers, hence the noise. - Shapps leading a challenge doesn't add to its credibility.....
They do have the numbers, which is why Theresa May can't sack anyone despite the siren calls of her dimmer supporters. What they do not have is an agreed successor, which is why the Prime Minister is safe for as long as she wants to hang on.
Tosh, I'm afraid.
If they had the numbers to get rid of her, the letters would have gone in. Instead of this hilarious botched Shapp's attempt.
No. The problem is the Davis supporters want Davis, not Boris, and vice versa. Add in the Gove, Hammond, Hunt, Mogg and Rudd supporters and you see the problem. They can get shot of May but cannot be sure of the right successor.
Sounds like they need a contest involving AV...
Well the Tory leadership is conducted under a form of quasi AV
Perhaps we need refreshing via an AV thread extolling the virtues of a superior system of resolving difficult elections?
The problem for the party is that, thanks to May's incompetence, this all takes place in the context of what is already a minority government. Would Nadine even take the whip if Boris becomes leader? Would it mean much if she did? I am not sure that a Boris led party would have a majority in the Commons even with DUP support.
The Tories need a leader which all the factions can just about live with to keep this show on the road through very difficult times. Its a depressing thought but they may conclude that that is May. What a mess.
I think they already have decided that.
Shapps may even have have done a Purnell - putting his head above the parapet only to find his allies have evaporated.
The problem for the party is that, thanks to May's incompetence, this all takes place in the context of what is already a minority government. Would Nadine even take the whip if Boris becomes leader? Would it mean much if she did? I am not sure that a Boris led party would have a majority in the Commons even with DUP support.
The Tories need a leader which all the factions can just about live with to keep this show on the road through very difficult times. Its a depressing thought but they may conclude that that is May. What a mess.
Hague from the Lords to do Brexit and stand aside at the end of March 2019?
It's intriguing to see how the Conservative party has evolved following the vote to Leave. No doubt the more extreme the Brexit, the more that trend will continue.
It might be the one good thing to come out of Brexit: the fading to irrelevance of the nasty party for another generation.
Viewcode FPT: Hungary is frequently recommended for dental work, including implants - Rod Crosby here used them and I've seen other recommendations. They are highly-organised - you can have the initial consultation in London, and everything is apparently laid on for you, including flight and stay. Obviously DYOR but they're definitely an option to consider. One outfit have a frequent half-age ad in the Metro - I'm told this is the longest-established looking for UK business.
On topic, TM's polling looks not as bad as you might expect, with Tory voters largely loyal. The question is whether staggering on or having a divisive new leadership election will erode support more. It's genuinely unclear, but doesn't look very promising either way.
.
One thing that we should be very proud of in our EU membership is the way we have developed Eastern Europe as economically liberal democracies. Not perfect by a long way, but getting there.
It is rare to hear PB so united in extolling the virtues of cheap Eastern European labour undercutting British small business.
I would suggest this is part of "Cake and eat it" but dont think the icing sugar is good for my teeth.
Why? Is it eu membership that enables us to to Hungary to get our teeth fixed? (The answer is no, btw).
What we see in this is a desire for the benefits of globalisation, without the costs. Cake and eat it.
If we do not compete with cheap workers then we export the jobs.
Take Rod Crosby's Bratislavan dentistry. Cheaper than he could get in Liverpool and he was impressed with the quality too. I cannot help but wonder why Liverpool (not the wealthiest part of the UK) dentists could not do the work at the same price, thereby keeping the jobs and incomes in the local economy.
Dentistry in England has been substantially private for years, and this sort of restorative dentistry particularly so. It is not the fault of the NHS. Certainly premises, office and staff costs are higher here, as are wages, and probably taxes. Then there is the cost of CQC compliance and a host of other bits of our government bureaucracy. I suspect there is also an element of demand exceeding supply as trained restorative dentists are in shortage due to lack of interest in training. It is not just decayed teeth that are the British disease.
We may be poor up north but we are not yet at Eastern European levels!
It is very sensible to try to maximise the benefits of something and mitigate the costs. Take capitalism. We take the economic growth and minimise the bad effects with minimum wage and a welfare state. Some jobs are not exportable, like most retail work and construction jobs.
It's intriguing to see how the Conservative party has evolved following the vote to Leave. No doubt the more extreme the Brexit, the more that trend will continue.
It might be the one good thing to come out of Brexit: the fading to irrelevance of the nasty party for another generation.
Indeed. The fading of the facile extremist euro-liberalism that prioritises GDP growth above GDP per capita growth will be very pleasing.
Viewcode FPT: Hungary is frequently recommended for dental work, including implants - Rod Crosby here used them and I've seen other recommendations. They are highly-organised - you can have the initial consultation in London, and everything is apparently laid on for you, including flight and stay. Obviously DYOR but they're definitely an option to consider. One outfit have a frequent half-age ad in the Metro - I'm told this is the longest-established looking for UK business.
On topic, TM's polling looks not as bad as you might expect, with Tory voters largely loyal. The question is whether staggering on or having a divisive new leadership election will erode support more. It's genuinely unclear, but doesn't look very promising either way.
.
One thing that we should be very proud of in our EU membership is the way we have developed Eastern Europe as economically liberal democracies. Not perfect by a long way, but getting there.
It is rare to hear PB so united in extolling the virtues of cheap Eastern European labour undercutting British small business.
I would suggest this is part of "Cake and eat it" but dont think the icing sugar is good for my teeth.
Why? Is it eu membership that enables us to to Hungary to get our teeth fixed? (The answer is no, btw).
What we see in this is a desire for the benefits of globalisation, without the costs. Cake and eat it.
If we do not compete with cheap workers then we export the jobs.
Take Rod Crosby's Bratislavan dentistry. Cheaper than he could get in Liverpool and he was impressed with the quality too. I cannot help but wonder why Liverpool (not the wealthiest part of the UK) dentists could not do the work at the same price, thereby keeping the jobs and incomes in the local economy.
Dentistry in
We may be poor up north but we are not yet at Eastern European levels!
It is very sensible to try to maximise the benefits of something and mitigate the costs. Take capitalism. We take the economic growth and minimise the bad effects with minimum wage and a welfare state. Some jobs are not exportable, like most retail work and construction jobs.
I suspect that our dentistry will be competetive with european rivals when the devaluation takes €1 to £1.50 or so.
I genuinely don't know about Mrs May. On the one hand, it's not ideal to go through what will be a volatile few years with a leader with no vision. On the other, would the country forgive us for having a leadership election in the middle of Brexit?
We had a general election in the middle of Brexit.
Which is even more reason for not doing a leadership election too, not less.
No, it shows it really does not matter at all. We've also had the party conferences in the middle of Brexit. Of all the reasons for Theresa May continuing in post, the idea that there is no time to find a successor is the most fatuous.
We lost months in negotiating time due to the general election and are now a couple months behind schedule. We can't afford to take another two months for the Tories to indulge in blood letting and another two months for a new PM to get up to speed. I understand those that want Brexit to be a disaster are all up for that, but most of us actually want a decent deal. For all her flaws, May has both mastered the details and is pragmatic enough to find a middle path between the rabid sceptics and the no change at all brigade.
The problem for the party is that, thanks to May's incompetence, this all takes place in the context of what is already a minority government. Would Nadine even take the whip if Boris becomes leader? Would it mean much if she did? I am not sure that a Boris led party would have a majority in the Commons even with DUP support.
The Tories need a leader which all the factions can just about live with to keep this show on the road through very difficult times. Its a depressing thought but they may conclude that that is May. What a mess.
I think they already have decided that.
Shapps may even have have done a Purnell - putting his head above the parapet only to find his allies have evaporated.
Sorry Mike, but there just is no appetite for a change of Conservative Leader right now despite the demand for change being generated by the Westminster Lobby or the betting fraternity.
Not true. Tories I speak to all want her gone. There is a weird PB bubble that wants to keep her but most of the party knows her time is up, the issue is who replaces her. If it weren't for Corbyn the. I wouldn't mind us going into opposition to have 5 years of bloodletting but that is not an option.
Sorry Mike, but there just is no appetite for a change of Conservative Leader right now despite the demand for change being generated by the Westminster Lobby or the betting fraternity.
Not true. Tories I speak to all want her gone. There is a weird PB bubble that wants to keep her but most of the party knows her time is up, the issue is who replaces her. If it weren't for Corbyn the. I wouldn't mind us going into opposition to have 5 years of bloodletting but that is not an option.
At my branch meeting yesterday, the consensus was that she should stay. Our MP said there was no genuine appetite for a contest.
Sorry Mike, but there just is no appetite for a change of Conservative Leader right now despite the demand for change being generated by the Westminster Lobby or the betting fraternity.
Not true. Tories I speak to all want her gone. There is a weird PB bubble that wants to keep her but most of the party knows her time is up, the issue is who replaces her. If it weren't for Corbyn the. I wouldn't mind us going into opposition to have 5 years of bloodletting but that is not an option.
I hope you've fitted out your spare room for @Casino_Royale.
This seems to be inexorably leading to the principal architect of our national humiliation Boris Johnson being foisted on us by the votes of perhaps 1% of the population. Cameron's Faustian pact with UKIP is finally being cashed in.
When the next election comes I can't see anything other than Corbyn and McDonnell being swept to victory on a wave of revulsion.
- They dont have the numbers, hence the noise. - Shapps leading a challenge doesn't add to its credibility.....
They do have the numbers, which is why Theresa May can't sack anyone despite the siren calls of her dimmer supporters. What they do not have is an agreed successor, which is why the Prime Minister is safe for as long as she wants to hang on.
Tosh, I'm afraid.
If they had the numbers to get rid of her, the letters would have gone in. Instead of this hilarious botched Shapp's attempt.
No. The problem is the Davis supporters want Davis, not Boris, and vice versa. Add in the Gove, Hammond, Hunt, Mogg and Rudd supporters and you see the problem. They can get shot of May but cannot be sure of the right successor.
Then they don't actually have the numbers committed to ousting her. They have what we call in politics 'expressions of support'.
What they have is a few people committed, led by someone with little credibility and no parliamentary following.
If Theresa May believes that, she can sack Boris, Davis and the rest. She doesn't and hasn't.
- They dont have the numbers, hence the noise. - Shapps leading a challenge doesn't add to its credibility.....
They do have the numbers, which is why Theresa May can't sack anyone despite the siren calls of her dimmer supporters. What they do not have is an agreed successor, which is why the Prime Minister is safe for as long as she wants to hang on.
Tosh, I'm afraid.
If they had the numbers to get rid of her, the letters would have gone in. Instead of this hilarious botched Shapp's attempt.
No. The problem is the Davis supporters want Davis, not Boris, and vice versa. Add in the Gove, Hammond, Hunt, Mogg and Rudd supporters and you see the problem. They can get shot of May but cannot be sure of the right successor.
Then they don't actually have the numbers committed to ousting her. They have what we call in politics 'expressions of support'.
What they have is a few people committed, led by someone with little credibility and no parliamentary following.
If Theresa May believes that, she can sack Boris, Davis and the rest. She doesn't and hasn't.
Now that is quite a different issue.
The plotters don't have the numbers to bring May down through proper channels.
Mr. Charles, I don't get involved trying to edit Wikipedia. It's of some use as a resource but cannot be taken as gospel, and those who think it can should get hold of some primary sources and do some reading.
Although now you've mentioned it, I may blog about the error.
I dunno. I'd really, really like to see dna testing of classical era remains, if we had any. More recent dna would be highly questionable, because the Macedonians could argue that they have sat tight all along whereas the Greeks of Greece were displaced by mass movements of populations between then and now, so if there is a mismatch that's because Macedonians are Greek and Greeks aren't. I think this case was made by a German scholar some time back and is now discredited, but dna could revive it. All the names are as Greek as Macgregor is Scottish - Alexander, Philip, Olympias, Neoptolemos - and had been for some time (Philip was Philip II, Alexander was Alexander III). The Greeks were unashamedly hostile to and contemptuous of barbarians (meaning everyone who is not Greek) and untroubled by rules about racism, so Athenians like Demosthenes had every reason to call Alexander barbarian even if he was nothing of the sort.
The problem for the party is that, thanks to May's incompetence, this all takes place in the context of what is already a minority government. Would Nadine even take the whip if Boris becomes leader? Would it mean much if she did? I am not sure that a Boris led party would have a majority in the Commons even with DUP support.
The Tories need a leader which all the factions can just about live with to keep this show on the road through very difficult times. Its a depressing thought but they may conclude that that is May. What a mess.
Hague from the Lords to do Brexit and stand aside at the end of March 2019?
It's a good rule of thumb that when people start proposing peers from the Lords, they've let their enthusiasm run ahead of them. Unless the Lords is reformed on a democratic basis, there will never again be a PM sitting in the Upper Chamber. Douglas-Home proved that (as, less obviously, did Halifax in 1940, who when the discussions on the succession to Chamberlain were ongoing recognised that were he chosen, he'd have to return to the Commons, either through a special Act of Parliament or by having his peerage put into abeyance).
However, welshowl does touch on an opportunity. Hague could not be PM from the Lords but he could be Foreign Secretary.
Is that good or bad for Gove? Or just that Cummings realised that if he couldn't get to the bloody point in 10,000-word blog posts, 140 characters would never cut it?
"UK cities refusing to reveal extent of pseudo-public space
City administrations in Manchester, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Glasgow and seven others decline to outline the spread of privately owned public areas, or their secret prohibitions – which may include protesting or taking photos"
Brexitter ------------ New words by Sunil, original music by Almond & Ball.
Friday morning going slow I'm watching the election show Lots of Ladbrokes slips on the floor Memories of the night before Out knocking up and having fun Now I've stopped reading The Sun Waiting for the results to show But why I voted no one knows
Voting, polling Blogging, trolling And now I'm all alone In Brexit Land My only home
I think it's time to write a thread To vent the bemusement in my head Spent my money on online bookies Got nowt here but all the cookies Clean my suit and my rosette Election promises to forget Start campaigning all over again Kid myself I'm having fun
Voting, polling Blogging, trolling And now I'm all alone In Brexit Land My only home
Looking out from my worldview I've really nothing else to do Seems like I have started fretting Let's read Political Betting Forget The Mirror and The Times The battle bus with such great lines Look around and I can see A thousand punters just like me
Voting, polling Blogging, trolling And now I'm all alone In Brexit Land My only home
Voting, polling Blogging, trolling And now I'm all alone In Brexit Land My only home
Mr. Z, your Demosthenes comment, which is accurate, is support against Alexander being Greek.
After Alexander died, his secretary, Eumenes, was a very capable commander. But he was never able to vie for the regency or, later, kingship as he was Greek and the Macedonians wouldn't've accepted his leadership.
It's intriguing to see how the Conservative party has evolved following the vote to Leave. No doubt the more extreme the Brexit, the more that trend will continue.
It might be the one good thing to come out of Brexit: the fading to irrelevance of the nasty party for another generation.
I hope you're right: I'd be delighted if the opposition faded to irrelevance for another generation.
In process terms the rebels need 15% of the parliamentary party, 48, to send letters to the chairman of the 1922 committee demanding a confidence vote on the Prime Minister. The Times report linked to above says that there are at least 30 names.
Yes, but given that it's Shapps, how many MPs are there?
Regarding the discussion earlier this morning on the nature of the Conservative party, a brilliant letter in today's Guardian from Neville Westerman should be required reading...
"It is a matter of historical record that the Conservatives voted against universal health in 1948, as they voted against universal dole and universal pensions in 1909, and universal education in 1870. I remember the vicious and dishonest hostility against the NHS by the Tory party and media in 1948, which was very similar to the present attitude of the US Republicans. But Jeremy Hunt declared to conference that Conservatives have always supported the NHS. What percentage of Tory members could be so ignorant as to believe that Jeremy had any intention to speak the truth? The success of the Tory party to gain power has largely been based on its eagerness to tell blatant lies. Tory policy for 150 years has been largely inhumane, devoid of compassion, and opposed to the welfare state, but defended by lying, their “not-so-secret” weapon. When Boris Johnson reveals himself as an untrustworthy liar within his own party, that makes him the members’ favourite MP to be our PM."
Mr. Z, your Demosthenes comment, which is accurate, is support against Alexander being Greek.
After Alexander died, his secretary, Eumenes, was a very capable commander. But he was never able to vie for the regency or, later, kingship as he was Greek and the Macedonians wouldn't've accepted his leadership.
It is, but its reliability is questionable.
I really, really don't know what the answer is. DNA from that period is relatively unique, and as Mt Pelister has no permanent glaciers we are unlikely to find another Otzi (who died of having an arrow fired at him).
May is lucky to be facing Shapps. Very weak this morning.
The Napoleon of modern politics? Weak, vacillating, brutal, arrogant, egotistical, ambitious and incompetent, but thrashing everyone around her because remarkably they are even more useless?
A little unfair, I feel.
Napoleon was a proven winner who reshaped Europe. And May isn’t.
Regarding the discussion earlier this morning on the nature of the Conservative party, a brilliant letter in today's Guardian from Neville Westerman should be required reading...
"It is a matter of historical record that the Conservatives voted against universal health in 1948, as they voted against universal dole and universal pensions in 1909, and universal education in 1870. I remember the vicious and dishonest hostility against the NHS by the Tory party and media in 1948, which was very similar to the present attitude of the US Republicans. But Jeremy Hunt declared to conference that Conservatives have always supported the NHS. What percentage of Tory members could be so ignorant as to believe that Jeremy had any intention to speak the truth? The success of the Tory party to gain power has largely been based on its eagerness to tell blatant lies. Tory policy for 150 years has been largely inhumane, devoid of compassion, and opposed to the welfare state, but defended by lying, their “not-so-secret” weapon. When Boris Johnson reveals himself as an untrustworthy liar within his own party, that makes him the members’ favourite MP to be our PM."
Mr. Z, nationality is about more than DNA. It's about culture, history and so on.
The only reason anyone claims Alexander was Greek is because Greeks want, understandably, one of history's greatest figures to be seen as one of their own.
He wasn't. He thrashed the Greeks and had hegemony over most of them. Later, the only Greek playing on the main board of the Diadochi was Eumenes (mentioned above). All the rest were Macedonian.
Greece was a collection of city states, but most people would never guess the Macedonian capital's name (Pella). Macedon was a kingdom, not just a city-state. It and Epirus were heavily influenced by Hellenic culture, but they were less Greek than the cities on the west coast of Asia Minor.
May is lucky to be facing Shapps. Very weak this morning.
The Napoleon of modern politics? Weak, vacillating, brutal, arrogant, egotistical, ambitious and incompetent, but thrashing everyone around her because remarkably they are even more useless?
A little unfair, I feel.
Napoleon was a proven winner who reshaped Europe. And May isn’t.
She might reshape Europe.
If Brexit turns out to be a disaster, we might eventually rejoin the EU as a fully integrated member, with the Euro, Schengen, and a EU Army.
She could be delivering on the hopes of Jacques Delors
Regarding the discussion earlier this morning on the nature of the Conservative party, a brilliant letter in today's Guardian from Neville Westerman should be required reading...
"It is a matter of historical record that the Conservatives voted against universal health in 1948, as they voted against universal dole and universal pensions in 1909, and universal education in 1870. I remember the vicious and dishonest hostility against the NHS by the Tory party and media in 1948, which was very similar to the present attitude of the US Republicans. But Jeremy Hunt declared to conference that Conservatives have always supported the NHS. What percentage of Tory members could be so ignorant as to believe that Jeremy had any intention to speak the truth? The success of the Tory party to gain power has largely been based on its eagerness to tell blatant lies. Tory policy for 150 years has been largely inhumane, devoid of compassion, and opposed to the welfare state, but defended by lying, their “not-so-secret” weapon. When Boris Johnson reveals himself as an untrustworthy liar within his own party, that makes him the members’ favourite MP to be our PM."
- They dont have the numbers, hence the noise. - Shapps leading a challenge doesn't add to its credibility.....
They do have the numbers, which is why Theresa May can't sack anyone despite the siren calls of her dimmer supporters. What they do not have is an agreed successor, which is why the Prime Minister is safe for as long as she wants to hang on.
Tosh, I'm afraid.
If they had the numbers to get rid of her, the letters would have gone in. Instead of this hilarious botched Shapp's attempt.
No. The problem is the Davis supporters want Davis, not Boris, and vice versa. Add in the Gove, Hammond, Hunt, Mogg and Rudd supporters and you see the problem. They can get shot of May but cannot be sure of the right successor.
Then they don't actually have the numbers committed to ousting her. They have what we call in politics 'expressions of support'.
What they have is a few people committed, led by someone with little credibility and no parliamentary following.
If Theresa May believes that, she can sack Boris, Davis and the rest. She doesn't and hasn't.
The Plotters all know that in a show of strength, May may decide to have a "Night of the Long Knives", has happened before in the Tories! And Oh Dear! No more ministerial cars or red boxes or civil servants at your beck and call....
48 MPs to get a recall doesn't seem a high threshold in the circumstances. They don't need a common cause or plan for the succession. Only that 48 individuals want change.
If they can't get rid of a useless leader even under a cloak of anonymity, or manage a conference without bits of their slogan falling off the wall and a stupid prankster holding up the proceedings, the adage "couldn't organise a piss-up in a brewery" might literally be the situation for the Conservative Party. Prospects of them delivering the successful Brexit they promised are dim indeed.
One of May's problems is that she enjoys delivering "tough" messages so much, she doesn't think through the impact of them. Because all she cares about is being seen to be as hard-as-nails fighter, whilst actually being quite sensitive and fragile herself, and is emotionally imperceptive to others.
I think this is crucial to understanding her. There must be some childhood/upbringing thing going on here.
Now, that doesn't mean she doesn't have a point. But it's when and how she makes it that's important. That's a key skill of a politician.
For example, many (still) haven't forgiven her for her "nasty party" speech in 2002. Why? Because she gave our enemies a name for our branding problem, which has been used as a stick to beat us with ever since.
Someone more politically savvy wouldn't have made the same mistake.
She thinks she's way better than she is, she (probably inadvertently) f*cks people off, she doesn't apologise, then doesn't have the people skills to rebuild those relationships, and gets upset when it all falls down around her.
Regarding the discussion earlier this morning on the nature of the Conservative party, a brilliant letter in today's Guardian from Neville Westerman should be required reading...
"It is a matter of historical record that the Conservatives voted against universal health in 1948, as they voted against universal dole and universal pensions in 1909, and universal education in 1870. I remember the vicious and dishonest hostility against the NHS by the Tory party and media in 1948, which was very similar to the present attitude of the US Republicans. But Jeremy Hunt declared to conference that Conservatives have always supported the NHS. What percentage of Tory members could be so ignorant as to believe that Jeremy had any intention to speak the truth? The success of the Tory party to gain power has largely been based on its eagerness to tell blatant lies. Tory policy for 150 years has been largely inhumane, devoid of compassion, and opposed to the welfare state, but defended by lying, their “not-so-secret” weapon. When Boris Johnson reveals himself as an untrustworthy liar within his own party, that makes him the members’ favourite MP to be our PM."
Mr. Z, nationality is about more than DNA. It's about culture, history and so on.
The only reason anyone claims Alexander was Greek is because Greeks want, understandably, one of history's greatest figures to be seen as one of their own.
He wasn't. He thrashed the Greeks and had hegemony over most of them. Later, the only Greek playing on the main board of the Diadochi was Eumenes (mentioned above). All the rest were Macedonian.
Greece was a collection of city states, but most people would never guess the Macedonian capital's name (Pella). Macedon was a kingdom, not just a city-state. It and Epirus were heavily influenced by Hellenic culture, but they were less Greek than the cities on the west coast of Asia Minor.
Don't wanna get into etymology, but there are possible Greek derivations of Pella. Also, place names like Corinth and Tiryns are definitely Pelasgian, not Greek, but you wouldn't call the cities non-Greek.
Also, how do I get you to rise to the bait if "relatively unique" and firing arrows in one short post doesn't cut it?
The Conservative party is divided between those who think that Theresa May is NBG and should go and those who think that Theresa May is NBG and must stay.
The first group is correct. She can't do the job any more and that is decisive. The Tories need to find someone around whom they can more or less unite. Everything else is going to have to be left for now. In descending order, the options seem to be Michael Gove, Amber Rudd, David Davis and Jeremy Hunt.
He's unsuitable in almost every other way, but the Conservatives should go for Michael Gove.
- They dont have the numbers, hence the noise. - Shapps leading a challenge doesn't add to its credibility.....
They do have the numbers, which is why Theresa May can't sack anyone despite the siren calls of her dimmer supporters. What they do not have is an agreed successor, which is why the Prime Minister is safe for as long as she wants to hang on.
Tosh, I'm afraid.
If they had the numbers to get rid of her, the letters would have gone in. Instead of this hilarious botched Shapp's attempt.
No. The problem is the Davis supporters want Davis, not Boris, and vice versa. Add in the Gove, Hammond, Hunt, Mogg and Rudd supporters and you see the problem. They can get shot of May but cannot be sure of the right successor.
Then they don't actually have the numbers committed to ousting her. They have what we call in politics 'expressions of support'.
What they have is a few people committed, led by someone with little credibility and no parliamentary following.
If Theresa May believes that, she can sack Boris, Davis and the rest. She doesn't and hasn't.
No, because if she did that, she'd ensure by that act that they did have the numbers.
The Conservative party is divided between those who think that Theresa May is NBG and should go and those who think that Theresa May is NBG and must stay.
The first group is correct. She can't do the job any more and that is decisive. The Tories need to find someone around whom they can more or less unite. Everything else is going to have to be left for now. In descending order, the options seem to be Michael Gove, Amber Rudd, David Davis and Jeremy Hunt.
He's unsuitable in almost every other way, but the Conservatives should go for Michael Gove.
The Conservative party is divided between those who think that Theresa May is NBG and should go and those who think that Theresa May is NBG and must stay.
The first group is correct. She can't do the job any more and that is decisive. The Tories need to find someone around whom they can more or less unite. Everything else is going to have to be left for now. In descending order, the options seem to be Michael Gove, Amber Rudd, David Davis and Jeremy Hunt.
He's unsuitable in almost every other way, but the Conservatives should go for Michael Gove.
The Conservative party is divided between those who think that Theresa May is NBG and should go and those who think that Theresa May is NBG and must stay.
The first group is correct. She can't do the job any more and that is decisive. The Tories need to find someone around whom they can more or less unite. Everything else is going to have to be left for now. In descending order, the options seem to be Michael Gove, Amber Rudd, David Davis and Jeremy Hunt.
He's unsuitable in almost every other way, but the Conservatives should go for Michael Gove.
All the candidates that you mention are deeply flawed, but not as flawed as May.
Brexit needs a true believer, and being PM means cabinet experience. Gove, Davis, Patel in probably that order.
The Conservative party is divided between those who think that Theresa May is NBG and should go and those who think that Theresa May is NBG and must stay.
The first group is correct. She can't do the job any more and that is decisive. The Tories need to find someone around whom they can more or less unite. Everything else is going to have to be left for now. In descending order, the options seem to be Michael Gove, Amber Rudd, David Davis and Jeremy Hunt.
He's unsuitable in almost every other way, but the Conservatives should go for Michael Gove.
The Conservative party is divided between those who think that Theresa May is NBG and should go and those who think that Theresa May is NBG and must stay.
The first group is correct. She can't do the job any more and that is decisive. The Tories need to find someone around whom they can more or less unite. Everything else is going to have to be left for now. In descending order, the options seem to be Michael Gove, Amber Rudd, David Davis and Jeremy Hunt.
He's unsuitable in almost every other way, but the Conservatives should go for Michael Gove.
Personally I agree. He is the clearest and most radical thinker currently active in UK politics. But he is also extremely marmite. Would he have a working majority that he could rely on in the Commons? For all his intellect I fear the Tories need a less divisive figure than Gove.
The Conservative party is divided between those who think that Theresa May is NBG and should go and those who think that Theresa May is NBG and must stay.
The first group is correct. She can't do the job any more and that is decisive. The Tories need to find someone around whom they can more or less unite. Everything else is going to have to be left for now. In descending order, the options seem to be Michael Gove, Amber Rudd, David Davis and Jeremy Hunt.
He's unsuitable in almost every other way, but the Conservatives should go for Michael Gove.
Personally I agree. He is the clearest and most radical thinker currently active in UK politics. But he is also extremely marmite. Would he have a working majority that he could rely on in the Commons? For all his intellect I fear the Tories need a less divisive figure than Gove.
Surely there is no unity candidate. Like Labour, the Tories need to choose their side and stick to it.
The Conservative party is divided between those who think that Theresa May is NBG and should go and those who think that Theresa May is NBG and must stay.
The first group is correct. She can't do the job any more and that is decisive. The Tories need to find someone around whom they can more or less unite. Everything else is going to have to be left for now. In descending order, the options seem to be Michael Gove, Amber Rudd, David Davis and Jeremy Hunt.
He's unsuitable in almost every other way, but the Conservatives should go for Michael Gove.
Personally I agree. He is the clearest and most radical thinker currently active in UK politics. But he is also extremely marmite. Would he have a working majority that he could rely on in the Commons? For all his intellect I fear the Tories need a less divisive figure than Gove.
Candidates who should be rapidly discounted: Philip Hammond, Boris Johnson and Incitatus (aka Jacob Rees-Mogg). Whatever their other virtues, none of them could unite the Conservative party.
Regarding the discussion earlier this morning on the nature of the Conservative party, a brilliant letter in today's Guardian from Neville Westerman should be required reading...
"It is a matter of historical record that the Conservatives voted against universal health in 1948, as they voted against universal dole and universal pensions in 1909, and universal education in 1870. I remember the vicious and dishonest hostility against the NHS by the Tory party and media in 1948, which was very similar to the present attitude of the US Republicans. But Jeremy Hunt declared to conference that Conservatives have always supported the NHS. What percentage of Tory members could be so ignorant as to believe that Jeremy had any intention to speak the truth? The success of the Tory party to gain power has largely been based on its eagerness to tell blatant lies. Tory policy for 150 years has been largely inhumane, devoid of compassion, and opposed to the welfare state, but defended by lying, their “not-so-secret” weapon. When Boris Johnson reveals himself as an untrustworthy liar within his own party, that makes him the members’ favourite MP to be our PM."
Convenient misunderstanding of the nature of being an opposition, there.
Nonsense, oppositions do not have to oppose measures they support!
Of course they do because in aggregate, despite one measure here or there, they believe that the country would be better off with them in government, rather than in opposition. Hence it is their duty to oppose everything the government says or does (I would say perhaps with the exception of national emergencies).
It's why I don't think Jezza should be criticised for when he opposes measures he is known to support.
Regarding the discussion earlier this morning on the nature of the Conservative party, a brilliant letter in today's Guardian from Neville Westerman should be required reading...
"It is a matter of historical record that the Conservatives voted against universal health in 1948, as they voted against universal dole and universal pensions in 1909, and universal education in 1870. I remember the vicious and dishonest hostility against the NHS by the Tory party and media in 1948, which was very similar to the present attitude of the US Republicans. But Jeremy Hunt declared to conference that Conservatives have always supported the NHS. What percentage of Tory members could be so ignorant as to believe that Jeremy had any intention to speak the truth? The success of the Tory party to gain power has largely been based on its eagerness to tell blatant lies. Tory policy for 150 years has been largely inhumane, devoid of compassion, and opposed to the welfare state, but defended by lying, their “not-so-secret” weapon. When Boris Johnson reveals himself as an untrustworthy liar within his own party, that makes him the members’ favourite MP to be our PM."
Regarding the discussion earlier this morning on the nature of the Conservative party, a brilliant letter in today's Guardian from Neville Westerman should be required reading...
"It is a matter of historical record that the Conservatives voted against universal health in 1948, as they voted against universal dole and universal pensions in 1909, and universal education in 1870. I remember the vicious and dishonest hostility against the NHS by the Tory party and media in 1948, which was very similar to the present attitude of the US Republicans. But Jeremy Hunt declared to conference that Conservatives have always supported the NHS. What percentage of Tory members could be so ignorant as to believe that Jeremy had any intention to speak the truth? The success of the Tory party to gain power has largely been based on its eagerness to tell blatant lies. Tory policy for 150 years has been largely inhumane, devoid of compassion, and opposed to the welfare state, but defended by lying, their “not-so-secret” weapon. When Boris Johnson reveals himself as an untrustworthy liar within his own party, that makes him the members’ favourite MP to be our PM."
Can we hire SpaceX to launch the current Conservative leaders and the main contenders into space? They'd be much more useful up there than they are down here.
Idiots, no-hopers, fools and plotters, one and all.
The Conservatives really need to look wider, even if it means choosing someone who has not held office.
The Conservative party is divided between those who think that Theresa May is NBG and should go and those who think that Theresa May is NBG and must stay.
The first group is correct. She can't do the job any more and that is decisive. The Tories need to find someone around whom they can more or less unite. Everything else is going to have to be left for now. In descending order, the options seem to be Michael Gove, Amber Rudd, David Davis and Jeremy Hunt.
He's unsuitable in almost every other way, but the Conservatives should go for Michael Gove.
Personally I agree. He is the clearest and most radical thinker currently active in UK politics. But he is also extremely marmite. Would he have a working majority that he could rely on in the Commons? For all his intellect I fear the Tories need a less divisive figure than Gove.
Candidates who should be rapidly discounted: Philip Hammond, Boris Johnson and Incitatus (aka Jacob Rees-Mogg). Whatever their other virtues, none of them could unite the Conservative party.
Hammond has been an enormous disappointment. JRM is a joke figure. Boris...I don't know. He dominated the Conference as if he was already leader. My suspicion is that is where the Tories will end up. Gove would be much better.
Can we hire SpaceX to launch the current Conservative leaders and the main contenders into space? They'd be much more useful up there than they are down here.
Idiots, no-hopers, fools and plotters, one and all.
The Conservatives really need to look wider, even if it means choosing someone who has not held office.
Comments
Everything that cheers Remainers makes goes on to dash their hopes.
Every single idiot in this plot makes a cliff edge Brexit more likely.
The Tories need a leader which all the factions can just about live with to keep this show on the road through very difficult times. Its a depressing thought but they may conclude that that is May. What a mess.
What they have is a few people committed, led by someone with little credibility and no parliamentary following.
That’s your fix for the year
Shapps may even have have done a Purnell - putting his head above the parapet only to find his allies have evaporated.
Putting together the pre-qualifying tosh now.
It might be the one good thing to come out of Brexit: the fading to irrelevance of the nasty party for another generation.
Charles Walker, of 1922 committee, tells Telegraph the plot will fizzle out.
It is very sensible to try to maximise the benefits of something and mitigate the costs. Take capitalism. We take the economic growth and minimise the bad effects with minimum wage and a welfare state. Some jobs are not exportable, like most retail work and construction jobs.
Strange that back in the days when Labourites would be slagging off Shapps on a daily basis Tory loyalists would defend him 100%.
Betting PostF1: pre-qualifying ramble is up here, containing not one but two tips: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/japan-pre-qualifying-2017.html
We battle on!
Shapps is noise. That actually might be a signal.
When the next election comes I can't see anything other than Corbyn and McDonnell being swept to victory on a wave of revulsion.
The plotters don't have the numbers to bring May down through proper channels.
However, welshowl does touch on an opportunity. Hague could not be PM from the Lords but he could be Foreign Secretary.
"UK cities refusing to reveal extent of pseudo-public space
City administrations in Manchester, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Glasgow and seven others decline to outline the spread of privately owned public areas, or their secret prohibitions – which may include protesting or taking photos"
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/sep/26/its-really-shocking-uk-cities-refusing-to-reveal-extent-of-pseudo-public-space
Brexitter
------------
New words by Sunil, original music by Almond & Ball.
Friday morning going slow
I'm watching the election show
Lots of Ladbrokes slips on the floor
Memories of the night before
Out knocking up and having fun
Now I've stopped reading The Sun
Waiting for the results to show
But why I voted no one knows
Voting, polling
Blogging, trolling
And now I'm all alone
In Brexit Land
My only home
I think it's time to write a thread
To vent the bemusement in my head
Spent my money on online bookies
Got nowt here but all the cookies
Clean my suit and my rosette
Election promises to forget
Start campaigning all over again
Kid myself I'm having fun
Voting, polling
Blogging, trolling
And now I'm all alone
In Brexit Land
My only home
Looking out from my worldview
I've really nothing else to do
Seems like I have started fretting
Let's read Political Betting
Forget The Mirror and The Times
The battle bus with such great lines
Look around and I can see
A thousand punters just like me
Voting, polling
Blogging, trolling
And now I'm all alone
In Brexit Land
My only home
Voting, polling
Blogging, trolling
And now I'm all alone
In Brexit Land
My only home
(I'm waiting for Brexit
Or am I wasting time)
After Alexander died, his secretary, Eumenes, was a very capable commander. But he was never able to vie for the regency or, later, kingship as he was Greek and the Macedonians wouldn't've accepted his leadership.
Yes, but given that it's Shapps, how many MPs are there?
"It is a matter of historical record that the Conservatives voted against universal health in 1948, as they voted against universal dole and universal pensions in 1909, and universal education in 1870. I remember the vicious and dishonest hostility against the NHS by the Tory party and media in 1948, which was very similar to the present attitude of the US Republicans. But Jeremy Hunt declared to conference that Conservatives have always supported the NHS. What percentage of Tory members could be so ignorant as to believe that Jeremy had any intention to speak the truth? The success of the Tory party to gain power has largely been based on its eagerness to tell blatant lies. Tory policy for 150 years has been largely inhumane, devoid of compassion, and opposed to the welfare state, but defended by lying, their “not-so-secret” weapon. When Boris Johnson reveals himself as an untrustworthy liar within his own party, that makes him the members’ favourite MP to be our PM."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/05/reflections-on-a-shambolic-conference-for-the-conservatives
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/city-of-london-buoyed-by-being-picked-for-flotations-tgxwgzr6z?shareToken=950465ae88bb3d79b89b61f5955d724e
I really, really don't know what the answer is. DNA from that period is relatively unique, and as Mt Pelister has no permanent glaciers we are unlikely to find another Otzi (who died of having an arrow fired at him).
Napoleon was a proven winner who reshaped Europe. And May isn’t.
The only reason anyone claims Alexander was Greek is because Greeks want, understandably, one of history's greatest figures to be seen as one of their own.
He wasn't. He thrashed the Greeks and had hegemony over most of them. Later, the only Greek playing on the main board of the Diadochi was Eumenes (mentioned above). All the rest were Macedonian.
Greece was a collection of city states, but most people would never guess the Macedonian capital's name (Pella). Macedon was a kingdom, not just a city-state. It and Epirus were heavily influenced by Hellenic culture, but they were less Greek than the cities on the west coast of Asia Minor.
If Brexit turns out to be a disaster, we might eventually rejoin the EU as a fully integrated member, with the Euro, Schengen, and a EU Army.
She could be delivering on the hopes of Jacques Delors
If they can't get rid of a useless leader even under a cloak of anonymity, or manage a conference without bits of their slogan falling off the wall and a stupid prankster holding up the proceedings, the adage "couldn't organise a piss-up in a brewery" might literally be the situation for the Conservative Party. Prospects of them delivering the successful Brexit they promised are dim indeed.
as hard-as-nails fighter, whilst actually being quite sensitive and fragile herself, and is emotionally imperceptive to others.
I think this is crucial to understanding her. There must be some childhood/upbringing thing going on here.
Now, that doesn't mean she doesn't have a point. But it's when and how she makes it that's important. That's a key skill of a politician.
For example, many (still) haven't forgiven her for her "nasty party" speech in 2002. Why? Because she gave our enemies a name for our branding problem, which has been used as a stick to beat us with ever since.
Someone more politically savvy wouldn't have made the same mistake.
She thinks she's way better than she is, she (probably inadvertently) f*cks people off, she doesn't apologise, then doesn't have the people skills to rebuild those relationships, and gets upset when it all falls down around her.
She should just F Off, like her sign.
Also, how do I get you to rise to the bait if "relatively unique" and firing arrows in one short post doesn't cut it?
She’d be safe, she must bitterly regret sacking him now.
The first group is correct. She can't do the job any more and that is decisive. The Tories need to find someone around whom they can more or less unite. Everything else is going to have to be left for now. In descending order, the options seem to be Michael Gove, Amber Rudd, David Davis and Jeremy Hunt.
He's unsuitable in almost every other way, but the Conservatives should go for Michael Gove.
Brexit needs a true believer, and being PM means cabinet experience. Gove, Davis, Patel in probably that order.
There might be a launch of an Atlas V in a few minutes. Or not ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfBuVJLwsFs
Edit: and a couple of SpaceX launches coming this weekend.
Wouldn’t surprise me.
The Brexit team should have competent people from all parties in it to work out a position that more or less works, given all the constraints.
The domestic government can get on with building houses for our organs or whatever their policy is.
It's why I don't think Jezza should be criticised for when he opposes measures he is known to support.
Idiots, no-hopers, fools and plotters, one and all.
The Conservatives really need to look wider, even if it means choosing someone who has not held office.
A Tory to run the war/Brexit
Labour’s leader to run domestic affairs.
Sadly Jeremy Corbyn is no Clem Attlee.
And Mrs May is no Churchill, more a pound shop Lord Halifax.
We need to go out and sink a few beers.
A Tory majority.