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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A move against TMay needs to happen in next few days if a succ
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A move against TMay needs to happen in next few days if a successor is in place by Christmas
The only question being asked that matters in British – nay European – politics tonight: does Mrs May survive?
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And I'll repost what I posted on the last thread.
I’ve heard from reliable sources some of the ex cabinet ministers trying to oust Mrs May are Leavers.
They think she’s too weak and damaged to deliver a proper Brexit and will be bullied by the cabinet Remainers into giving a BINO.
and of the Cameroons...
The decision to support the removal of Mrs May has nothing to do with Brexit.
It is solely about stopping Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.
It is awkward decision for many on the Cameroon wing of the party, but the conclusion is Boris is too damaged to replace her.
Ed Vaizey is merely the start.
More Brexit masturbation at the expense of housing, wages, et al is the quickest way to PM Corbyn.
"Uncovering the abyss
Kazuo Ishiguro, a Nobel laureate for these muddled times
Dealing in self-deception and distortion, his works chime in an era of “alternative facts”
https://www.economist.com/blogs/prospero/2017/10/uncovering-abyss
Dave is backing Mrs May.
The others think it'll be one of Fallon, Hunt, Rudd, and Hammond.
But I'm not sure Boris will make it to the final two.
Oh, dear!
Mrs May undoubtedly regrets her stupidity and gracelessness in sacking Mr Osborne now.
If it's true Davis is out - then who is left? Fox? Patel? Gove?
But Boris shot his own feet off in 2016 by withdrawing. What I want to know, as a member of the electorate that will decide the next PM is this: if Boris wasn't putting himself forward in 2016 (for undisclosed reasons), what is so fundamentally different in Boris the candidate being right for PM in 2017? If Boris really has ambitions for the top job, he needs a very convincing answer to that question.
And Gove would also need to have a convincing answer as to why he would support him this time.
I really don't think a year as Foreign Secretary is any answer.
Is Boris REALLY a candidate this time around? How?
I'll be going to the poor house if Boris or JRM win.
Oh, dear!
https://youtu.be/Lr7bKYMuerA?t=68
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/five-former-cabinet-ministers-join-plot-to-force-theresa-may-to-quit-a3651546.html
Otherwise green with big wins on Hunt or Rory Stewart. Was green on Boris but laying at 6.2 seems value given he can't have had the votes to get to final 2 last time and has surely pissed off a few since then.
lol so true.
Boris must have known without Gove support (or with Gove in race) he couldn't get enough MPs to make final two. I agree little has changed since last year - if anything I would imagine a few are furious with his undermining of May.
I can't imagine there wouldn't be a leave candidate - but if you think May is too soft on Brexit - surely Boris is still a big risk... he nearly came down for Remain and there is at least a suspicion he doesn't believe in Brexit...
I would still suggest the best way to handle this is have Davis as a caretaker and then have someone like Stewart or Mercer take over. Of course the claim would come back that neither of them have any great experience with high office. The obvious response to that is neither has Corbyn.
It did live up to the hype.
I must admit all the responses I have been seeing on the forums back that up. These are fanatical fans of the original and are coming out saying this is easily as good if not better. I am hoping to see it this weekend.
I've had £10 on Hunt at 100/1 (Hills) as next PM because he seems to be quietly manoeuvering. Fallon I can't see, nor Rudd who seems out of her depth. Hammond needs more time to be proved right about Brexit but he doesn't have it.
Sadly John there will never be enough time in the eyes of brexiteers for Hammond to be proved right as however much the economy continues its southward course they will never attribute it to brexit.
Hammond would be the obvious choice but no-one likes him.
I'm not sure Fallon is even in the betting. I'd imagine he is the leader Corbyn would most like because his cuts neutralise defence as an election issue. He just seems over-promoted as a reward for the dead cat attacks in 2015.
The other factor is how the big Tory donors react.I think the Tories very own Feldman,not Marti or any relation to him,may represent the Tories' wallet.Money talks,as they say.
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/916008183759495168
An interesting point to include.
https://labourlist.org/2017/09/revealed-the-key-marginals-where-labour-will-pick-candidates-before-christmas/
I don't think anyone has gone from Health to PM, generally it is a career killer. Ken Clarke was one of the few survivors.
However, Health Secretaries get hated by the usual suspects. It's part of the job spec, and there's no getting round it. Therefore choosing him as leader would mean losing votes we don't need to lose.
On present trends, Momentum could unseat IDS, Johnson and Rudd.
If they wish to make their next leader Momentum-proof, south-west Surrey is one answer I suppose.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/05/emmanuel-macron-sparks-furore-telling-protesting-workers-stop/
have to agree, I used to own the factory !
France has resisted every effort at reform, and it's brought successive administrations to a halt. Will Macron succeed where Sarkozy and even Hollande failed?
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Ed Vaizey is a staunch remainer - and he is the one who has gone public?
Arlene might feel the opportunity is there to raise the stakes, that's assuming the deal survives whatever challenges are coming..