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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » September 2017 and Third Quarter Local By-Election Summary

September 2017 Monthly Summary Labour 18,824 votes (36.73% +8.66% on last time) winning 13 seats (+2 seats on last time) Conservatives 14,074 votes (27.46% -4.34% on last time) winning 10 seats (-7 seats on last time) Liberal Democrats 5,041 votes (9.84% +1.53% on last time) winning 3 seats (+1 seat on last time) Green Party 4,420 votes (8.62% +0.31% on last time) winning 2 seats (+2 seats on last time) Scottish National Party 3,345 votes (6.53% +3.23% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) Independent candidates 3,132 votes (6.11% +0.39% on last time) winning 3 seats (+2 seats on last time) United Kingdom Independence Party 1,156 votes (2.26% -10.75% on last time) winning 0 seats (-1 on last time) Other Party candidates 983 votes (1.92% +0.44% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) Local Independent candidates 278 votes (0.54% +0.54% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) Labour lead of 4,750 votes (9.27%) on a swing of 6.5% from Con to Lab

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IanB2

First!

Danny565

FPT:

GIN1138 said:

Aren't we almost at the tenth anniversary of El Gord blowing up his Premiership?

Think is was around 6th October 2007 when he chickened out of having an election?

It was indeed 6 October: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7031749.stm

Atleast one good thing that's come out of the last few months is that poor Brown can give some comfort to his tormented soul now: he can stop regretting not calling that snap election.

GIN1138

Third (rate) like the knock off gear the Tories brought for their 1970's style "retro" set...

tlg86

FPT:

SeanT said:

The fall in the £ and the coming slowdown/recession is killing off the immigration debate, anyway. The numbers are dropping fast.

Wrong.

Ishmael_Z

SeanT said:

Paging Mr Nabavi, Paging Mr Nabavi

How do I put my assets somewhere safe, so that Labour party can't devour them?

My London home is my home, so it will just have to ride out the storm. But I have a lot of liquid cash sploshing around. WTF do I do with it in a way that protects it?

If it's as much as it sounds, you can't beat giving some of it to a professional for him to tell you what to do with the rest.

For instance, http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/money_and_tax/tax/income_tax/artists_exemption_from_income_tax.html

I have no idea whether this might apply to you, but worth a look and a talk to someone who knows.

Casino_Royale

Feels about right.

GIN1138

Danny565 said:

FPT:

GIN1138 said:

Aren't we almost at the tenth anniversary of El Gord blowing up his Premiership?

Think is was around 6th October 2007 when he chickened out of having an election?

It was indeed 6 October: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7031749.stm

Atleast one good thing that's come out of the last few months is that poor Brown can give some comfort to his tormented soul now: he can stop regretting not calling that snap election.

Well we all said at the time the error wasn't calling off the election... It was letting those "princes" of the Labour Psrty build up the speculation in the first place....

welshowl

FPT

@ Sean T

One thing, unless the Tories agree to an election, there won't be one I believe. Does not the FTPA require a two thirds super majority? So at present Corbyn would be in Govt on 262 plus 35 SNP plus 4 Plaid 12 Lib Dems, 1 Green, 1 Lady Harmon and 10 DUP (however unlikely) plus the Speaker = 326 v 317 meaning only the Libs or DUP abstaining is enough to out vote him if all the Tories are against. At the least at present, the wilder fringes of the programme would not see the light of day. Now the Tories, or enough of them, might decide an election is needed whatever and come 2020 (four and a half years mind) one happens anyway, but it's not exactly "like for like swap Govt replacement".

At the least you have some time if you wish to rearrange your affairs

dr_spyn

Spain playing hard ball with Catalonia.

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/915928962479640576

Slackbladder

dr_spyn said:

Spain playing hard ball with Catalonia.

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/915928962479640576

Another situation where no one is looking good.

Big_G_NorthWales

Politics is a mess. Split between remain and leave, left and right, north v south, young v old and everyone seems to think their own narrow view will prevail.

With Brexit the country is divided but on balance the electorate just want to get on with it

I have no idea if Theresa will survive and maybe for her and her husbands piece of mine a sensible retirement would be fair to both. However, there is no one to unite the party or country on Brexit and I think Boris has made himself so unpopular with MP's he will struggle to get to the last two.

If there has to be a leadership election I hope there will be a good number standing with proper hustings. Whoever succeeds May, if they do, needs to be able to hold the party together, succeed in Brexit, and bat away Corbyn , all in an 18 month time scale.

In all honesty who would want it other than Boris

SandyRentool

dr_spyn said:

Spain playing hard ball with Catalonia.

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/915928962479640576

If they don't declare UDI, it will be a case of The Dog that Didn't Barca

(I'll get my coat)

Big_G_NorthWales

SandyRentool said:

dr_spyn said:

Spain playing hard ball with Catalonia.

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/915928962479640576

If they don't declare UDI, it will be a case of The Dog that Didn't Barca

(I'll get my coat)

That is really good - fair play

SandyRentool

On topic, the Kipper collapse is making the Tories look better than they really are doing.

TOPPING

SeanT said:

Ishmael_Z said:

SeanT said:

Paging Mr Nabavi, Paging Mr Nabavi

How do I put my assets somewhere safe, so that Labour party can't devour them?

My London home is my home, so it will just have to ride out the storm. But I have a lot of liquid cash sploshing around. WTF do I do with it in a way that protects it?

If it's as much as it sounds, you can't beat giving some of it to a professional for him to tell you what to do with the rest.

For instance, http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/money_and_tax/tax/income_tax/artists_exemption_from_income_tax.html

I have no idea whether this might apply to you, but worth a look and a talk to someone who knows.

Ta. It is a lot of cash. I keep it liquid coz taxman. But even after his depradations there will be v hefty amounts. I am bewildered as to what to do with it, too be honest.

Well you and your missus had better pronto create your maximum ISAs allowable. After a few years it will be a decent amount of money tax free.

Until Jezza changes the law retrospectively to tax unrealised profits held within ISAs at 95%, that is, obvs.

anothernick

Big_G_NorthWales said:

PWhoever succeeds May, if they do, needs to be able to hold the party together, succeed in Brexit, and bat away Corbyn , all in an 18 month time scale.

Piece of cake.

tpfkar

Slackbladder said:

dr_spyn said:

Spain playing hard ball with Catalonia.

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/915928962479640576

Another situation where no one is looking good.

It seems like one of those situations where all the armchair experts are saying how badly Spain / the EU / the police are handling things, but very quiet on exactly what they would do instead. It strikes me that the risks and downsides to any course of action are significant, so much easier to retreat to comfort zone of criticism.

Mexicanpete

SeanT said:

Ishmael_Z said:

SeanT said:

Paging Mr Nabavi, Paging Mr Nabavi

How do I put my assets somewhere safe, so that Labour party can't devour them?

My London home is my home, so it will just have to ride out the storm. But I have a lot of liquid cash sploshing around. WTF do I do with it in a way that protects it?

If it's as much as it sounds, you can't beat giving some of it to a professional for him to tell you what to do with the rest.

For instance, http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/money_and_tax/tax/income_tax/artists_exemption_from_income_tax.html

I have no idea whether this might apply to you, but worth a look and a talk to someone who knows.

Ta. It is a lot of cash. I keep it liquid coz taxman. But even after his depradations there will be v hefty amounts. I am bewildered as to what to do with it, too be honest.

I understood, reading your posts from years gone by that you were an advocate of distributing wealth amongst the ladies of South East Asia.

A worthy and charitable endeavour, no doubt!

TOPPING

@SeanT

oh, and - IANAIRE but I'm pretty sure the IR is better at finding large lumps of cash held by individuals than those individuals are at hiding it. You know...death...taxes...etc..

Scott_P

@tamcohen: Most MPs I've spoken to want PM to stay on. But those who say she could resign put timescale at anything from days to after Xmas

Fenster

SeanT said:

Ishmael_Z said:

SeanT said:

Paging Mr Nabavi, Paging Mr Nabavi

How do I put my assets somewhere safe, so that Labour party can't devour them?

My London home is my home, so it will just have to ride out the storm. But I have a lot of liquid cash sploshing around. WTF do I do with it in a way that protects it?

If it's as much as it sounds, you can't beat giving some of it to a professional for him to tell you what to do with the rest.

For instance, http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/money_and_tax/tax/income_tax/artists_exemption_from_income_tax.html

I have no idea whether this might apply to you, but worth a look and a talk to someone who knows.

Ta. It is a lot of cash. I keep it liquid coz taxman. But even after his depradations there will be v hefty amounts. I am bewildered as to what to do with it, too be honest.

I know someone locally who got busted with 3kg of cocaine a few weeks back. He'd just come back from another holiday to Miami, had his Audi RS8 seized and may lose his home.

He doesn't work, is on bail. And is 22 years old.

Why the govt doesn't want a piece of the drug market is beyond me.

Seriously big money involved. Even for dumb street idiots like him, probably looking at a ten year stretch.

Slackbladder

SandyRentool said:

On topic, the Kipper collapse is making the Tories look better than they really are doing.

As is the lib dem non-revival for both other parties.

TGOHF

Scott_P said:

@tamcohen: Most MPs I've spoken to want PM to stay on. But those who say she could resign put timescale at anything from days to after Xmas

She may be crap but she's not daft - she should go before the weekend.

Slackbladder

Fenster said:

SeanT said:

Ishmael_Z said:

SeanT said:

Paging Mr Nabavi, Paging Mr Nabavi

How do I put my assets somewhere safe, so that Labour party can't devour them?

My London home is my home, so it will just have to ride out the storm. But I have a lot of liquid cash sploshing around. WTF do I do with it in a way that protects it?

If it's as much as it sounds, you can't beat giving some of it to a professional for him to tell you what to do with the rest.

For instance, http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/money_and_tax/tax/income_tax/artists_exemption_from_income_tax.html

I have no idea whether this might apply to you, but worth a look and a talk to someone who knows.

Ta. It is a lot of cash. I keep it liquid coz taxman. But even after his depradations there will be v hefty amounts. I am bewildered as to what to do with it, too be honest.

I know someone locally who got busted with 3kg of cocaine a few weeks back. He'd just come back from another holiday to Miami, had his Audi RS8 seized and may lose his home.

He doesn't work, is on bail. And is 22 years old.

Why the govt doesn't want a piece of the drug market is beyond me.

Seriously big money involved. Even for dumb street idiots like him, probably looking at a ten year stretch.

You really think the government should be in the business of selling crack? That would be taking nationalisation a bit far.

TOPPING

TGOHF said:

Scott_P said:

@tamcohen: Most MPs I've spoken to want PM to stay on. But those who say she could resign put timescale at anything from days to after Xmas

She may be crap but she's not daft - she should go before the weekend.

as I said fpt - at this point, to indulge in a leadership election taking any time at all would be a gross dereliction of the duty the government owes to the country. We have a Brexit to do. The country would rightly not forgive them.

The Brexit negotiations will set the terms of our relationship with the EU for generations to come and to jeopardise achieving as good an outcome as possible of those negotiations would be near-criminal.

Mexicanpete

TGOHF said:

Scott_P said:

@tamcohen: Most MPs I've spoken to want PM to stay on. But those who say she could resign put timescale at anything from days to after Xmas

She may be crap but she's not daft - she should go before the weekend.

If she was going to fall on her sword without persuasion she would have gone in June. It may well be that the pressure becomes overpowering over the coming days and weeks but she doesn't strike me as a quitter.

dr_spyn

Why is Nick Clegg so unwilling to push for a Lib Dem revival?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41510253#

He couldn't work with Brown, and wants people to back Corbyn, has he found a job as a stand up comic?

OldKingCole

Whoops!!! Error.

Britain Elects says Eight council by-elections today: four Tory defences, two Labour, one Lib Dem, one UKIP.

williamglenn

TOPPING said:

The Brexit negotiations will set the terms of our relationship with the EU for generations to come and to jeopardise achieving as good an outcome as possible of those negotiations would be near-criminal.

One of the political mistakes in the handling of the financial crisis was the lack of people being seen to pay the price. Maybe Brexit should lead to some kind of judicial reckoning?

chrisoxon

williamglenn said:

TOPPING said:

The Brexit negotiations will set the terms of our relationship with the EU for generations to come and to jeopardise achieving as good an outcome as possible of those negotiations would be near-criminal.

One of the political mistakes in the handling of the financial crisis was the lack of people being seen to pay the price. Maybe Brexit should lead to some kind of judicial reckoning?

If you're dreaming of seeing Johnson, Gove, and Davis strung up by piano wire you're going to be disappointed.

surbiton

I think we could be looking at an unlikely hero to save us from Brexit.

If we come to a situation when a second referendum is put forward, Jeremy Corbyn could sway enough Labour Leave voters to Remain.

I also think JC could get some changes in FoM and could present that to the country much like Harold Wilson did in 1975.

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

Cheers for this, Mr. Hayfield.

surbiton

Slackbladder said:

Fenster said:

SeanT said:

Ishmael_Z said:

SeanT said:

Paging Mr Nabavi, Paging Mr Nabavi

How do I put my assets somewhere safe, so that Labour party can't devour them?

My London home is my home, so it will just have to ride out the storm. But I have a lot of liquid cash sploshing around. WTF do I do with it in a way that protects it?

If it's as much as it sounds, you can't beat giving some of it to a professional for him to tell you what to do with the rest.

For instance, http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/money_and_tax/tax/income_tax/artists_exemption_from_income_tax.html

I have no idea whether this might apply to you, but worth a look and a talk to someone who knows.

Ta. It is a lot of cash. I keep it liquid coz taxman. But even after his depradations there will be v hefty amounts. I am bewildered as to what to do with it, too be honest.

I know someone locally who got busted with 3kg of cocaine a few weeks back. He'd just come back from another holiday to Miami, had his Audi RS8 seized and may lose his home.

He doesn't work, is on bail. And is 22 years old.

Why the govt doesn't want a piece of the drug market is beyond me.

Seriously big money involved. Even for dumb street idiots like him, probably looking at a ten year stretch.

You really think the government should be in the business of selling crack? That would be taking nationalisation a bit far.

With or without VAT ?

Slackbladder

surbiton said:

I think we could be looking at an unlikely hero to save us from Brexit.

If we come to a situation when a second referendum is put forward, Jeremy Corbyn could sway enough Labour Leave voters to Remain.

I also think JC could get some changes in FoM and could present that to the country much like Harold Wilson did in 1975.

such a move would also save the country from Jeremy Corbyn....

Fenster

Slackbladder said:

Fenster said:

SeanT said:

Ishmael_Z said:

SeanT said:

Paging Mr Nabavi, Paging Mr Nabavi

How do I put my assets somewhere safe, so that Labour party can't devour them?

My London home is my home, so it will just have to ride out the storm. But I have a lot of liquid cash sploshing around. WTF do I do with it in a way that protects it?

If it's as much as it sounds, you can't beat giving some of it to a professional for him to tell you what to do with the rest.

For instance, http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/money_and_tax/tax/income_tax/artists_exemption_from_income_tax.html

I have no idea whether this might apply to you, but worth a look and a talk to someone who knows.

Ta. It is a lot of cash. I keep it liquid coz taxman. But even after his depradations there will be v hefty amounts. I am bewildered as to what to do with it, too be honest.

I know someone locally who got busted with 3kg of cocaine a few weeks back. He'd just come back from another holiday to Miami, had his Audi RS8 seized and may lose his home.

He doesn't work, is on bail. And is 22 years old.

Why the govt doesn't want a piece of the drug market is beyond me.

Seriously big money involved. Even for dumb street idiots like him, probably looking at a ten year stretch.

You really think the government should be in the business of selling crack? That would be taking nationalisation a bit far.

Just a mad, mad world when you can get so rich so quickly from selling coke.

It's not even anywhere near as good as it was 10 years back!

Slackbladder

surbiton said:

Slackbladder said:

Fenster said:

SeanT said:

Ishmael_Z said:

SeanT said:

Paging Mr Nabavi, Paging Mr Nabavi

How do I put my assets somewhere safe, so that Labour party can't devour them?

My London home is my home, so it will just have to ride out the storm. But I have a lot of liquid cash sploshing around. WTF do I do with it in a way that protects it?

If it's as much as it sounds, you can't beat giving some of it to a professional for him to tell you what to do with the rest.

For instance, http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/money_and_tax/tax/income_tax/artists_exemption_from_income_tax.html

I have no idea whether this might apply to you, but worth a look and a talk to someone who knows.

Ta. It is a lot of cash. I keep it liquid coz taxman. But even after his depradations there will be v hefty amounts. I am bewildered as to what to do with it, too be honest.

I know someone locally who got busted with 3kg of cocaine a few weeks back. He'd just come back from another holiday to Miami, had his Audi RS8 seized and may lose his home.

He doesn't work, is on bail. And is 22 years old.

Why the govt doesn't want a piece of the drug market is beyond me.

Seriously big money involved. Even for dumb street idiots like him, probably looking at a ten year stretch.

You really think the government should be in the business of selling crack? That would be taking nationalisation a bit far.

With or without VAT ?

Oh without, gotta make it as cheap as possible as your in competition with the cartels...

anothernick

surbiton said:

I think we could be looking at an unlikely hero to save us from Brexit.

If we come to a situation when a second referendum is put forward, Jeremy Corbyn could sway enough Labour Leave voters to Remain.

I also think JC could get some changes in FoM and could present that to the country much like Harold Wilson did in 1975.

A possible scenario certainly.

If the Tories collapse and Corbyn takes over with a clear prospect of being able to sell any deal to the HoC I think the EU will negotiate more seriously.

Jonathan

Remainers gave a unique moment to grab the Tory party. Leave leaders are damaged, especially Boris . A remainer needs to tack towards a soft Brexit position to get the job. Once secure, they can tack back.

Mexicanpete

surbiton said:

I think we could be looking at an unlikely hero to save us from Brexit.

If we come to a situation when a second referendum is put forward, Jeremy Corbyn could sway enough Labour Leave voters to Remain.

I also think JC could get some changes in FoM and could present that to the country much like Harold Wilson did in 1975.

Nice idea, but Corbyn is no Harold Wilson, although both would probably be grateful for the distinction.

Wilson was a pragmatist Corbyn a clown!

surbiton

welshowl said:

FPT

@ Sean T

One thing, unless the Tories agree to an election, there won't be one I believe. Does not the FTPA require a two thirds super majority? So at present Corbyn would be in Govt on 262 plus 35 SNP plus 4 Plaid 12 Lib Dems, 1 Green, 1 Lady Harmon and 10 DUP (however unlikely) plus the Speaker = 326 v 317 meaning only the Libs or DUP abstaining is enough to out vote him if all the Tories are against. At the least at present, the wilder fringes of the programme would not see the light of day. Now the Tories, or enough of them, might decide an election is needed whatever and come 2020 (four and a half years mind) one happens anyway, but it's not exactly "like for like swap Govt replacement".

At the least you have some time if you wish to rearrange your affairs

Labour will govern as a minority. Put forward a Queen's speech. Both winning the QS and losing it, will be a win for Labour. It can show that it was prepared to legislate what it promised.

AlastairMeeks

Jonathan said:

Remainers gave a unique moment to grab the Tory party. Leave leaders are damaged, especially Boris . A remainer needs to tack towards a soft Brexit position to get the job. Once secure, they can tack back.

The Leavers are in the majority in the party at large. Have you not noticed how insanely antagonistic they are to any conceivable candidate who supported Remain? They're not going to accept a soft Brexit delivered by any of them.

RobD

We need a version with our Dave

https://fyiaka411.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/bush-miss-me-yet-billboard-021020104.jpg

Jonathan

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

Remainers gave a unique moment to grab the Tory party. Leave leaders are damaged, especially Boris . A remainer needs to tack towards a soft Brexit position to get the job. Once secure, they can tack back.

The Leavers are in the majority in the party at large. Have you not noticed how insanely antagonistic they are to any conceivable candidate who supported Remain? They're not going to accept a soft Brexit delivered by any of them.

MPs choose who gets on the ballot.

surbiton

Mexicanpete said:

surbiton said:

I think we could be looking at an unlikely hero to save us from Brexit.

If we come to a situation when a second referendum is put forward, Jeremy Corbyn could sway enough Labour Leave voters to Remain.

I also think JC could get some changes in FoM and could present that to the country much like Harold Wilson did in 1975.

Nice idea, but Corbyn is no Harold Wilson, although both would probably be grateful for the distinction.

Wilson was a pragmatist Corbyn a clown!

Even Nick Clegg likes him.

Casino_Royale

If i detect it's just core Remainers looking to ditch May, I will smell a rat and start to tack back to her.

logical_song

Fenster said:

Slackbladder said:

Fenster said:

SeanT said:

Ishmael_Z said:

SeanT said:

Paging Mr Nabavi, Paging Mr Nabavi

How do I put my assets somewhere safe, so that Labour party can't devour them?

My London home is my home, so it will just have to ride out the storm. But I have a lot of liquid cash sploshing around. WTF do I do with it in a way that protects it?

If it's as much as it sounds, you can't beat giving some of it to a professional for him to tell you what to do with the rest.

For instance, http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/money_and_tax/tax/income_tax/artists_exemption_from_income_tax.html

I have no idea whether this might apply to you, but worth a look and a talk to someone who knows.

Ta. It is a lot of cash. I keep it liquid coz taxman. But even after his depradations there will be v hefty amounts. I am bewildered as to what to do with it, too be honest.

I know someone locally who got busted with 3kg of cocaine a few weeks back. He'd just come back from another holiday to Miami, had his Audi RS8 seized and may lose his home.

He doesn't work, is on bail. And is 22 years old.

Why the govt doesn't want a piece of the drug market is beyond me.

Seriously big money involved. Even for dumb street idiots like him, probably looking at a ten year stretch.

You really think the government should be in the business of selling crack? That would be taking nationalisation a bit far.

Just a mad, mad world when you can get so rich so quickly from selling coke.

It's not even anywhere near as good as it was 10 years back!

Classic Coke?

Casino_Royale

SeanT said:

Ishmael_Z said:

SeanT said:

Paging Mr Nabavi, Paging Mr Nabavi

How do I put my assets somewhere safe, so that Labour party can't devour them?

My London home is my home, so it will just have to ride out the storm. But I have a lot of liquid cash sploshing around. WTF do I do with it in a way that protects it?

If it's as much as it sounds, you can't beat giving some of it to a professional for him to tell you what to do with the rest.

For instance, http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/money_and_tax/tax/income_tax/artists_exemption_from_income_tax.html

I have no idea whether this might apply to you, but worth a look and a talk to someone who knows.

Ta. It is a lot of cash. I keep it liquid coz taxman. But even after his depradations there will be v hefty amounts. I am bewildered as to what to do with it, too be honest.

Give us a tenner.

AlastairMeeks

Jonathan said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

Remainers gave a unique moment to grab the Tory party. Leave leaders are damaged, especially Boris . A remainer needs to tack towards a soft Brexit position to get the job. Once secure, they can tack back.

The Leavers are in the majority in the party at large. Have you not noticed how insanely antagonistic they are to any conceivable candidate who supported Remain? They're not going to accept a soft Brexit delivered by any of them.

MPs choose who gets on the ballot.

Leaver MPs have the numbers to get a Leaver candidate on the ballot.

Jonathan

The model is there. Get their man on the final two, make sure the Brexiteer is flawed. Force them to withdraw.

Verulamius

Slackbladder said:

surbiton said:

Slackbladder said:

Fenster said:

SeanT said:

Ishmael_Z said:

SeanT said:

Paging Mr Nabavi, Paging Mr Nabavi

How do I put my assets somewhere safe, so that Labour party can't devour them?

My London home is my home, so it will just have to ride out the storm. But I have a lot of liquid cash sploshing around. WTF do I do with it in a way that protects it?

If it's as much as it sounds, you can't beat giving some of it to a professional for him to tell you what to do with the rest.

For instance, http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/money_and_tax/tax/income_tax/artists_exemption_from_income_tax.html

I have no idea whether this might apply to you, but worth a look and a talk to someone who knows.

Ta. It is a lot of cash. I keep it liquid coz taxman. But even after his depradations there will be v hefty amounts. I am bewildered as to what to do with it, too be honest.

I know someone locally who got busted with 3kg of cocaine a few weeks back. He'd just come back from another holiday to Miami, had his Audi RS8 seized and may lose his home.

He doesn't work, is on bail. And is 22 years old.

Why the govt doesn't want a piece of the drug market is beyond me.

Seriously big money involved. Even for dumb street idiots like him, probably looking at a ten year stretch.

You really think the government should be in the business of selling crack? That would be taking nationalisation a bit far.

With or without VAT ?

Oh without, gotta make it as cheap as possible as your in competition with the cartels...

Medical - exempt supply?

Slackbladder

Verulamius said:

Slackbladder said:

surbiton said:

Slackbladder said:

Fenster said:

SeanT said:

Ishmael_Z said:

SeanT said:

Paging Mr Nabavi, Paging Mr Nabavi

How do I put my assets somewhere safe, so that Labour party can't devour them?

My London home is my home, so it will just have to ride out the storm. But I have a lot of liquid cash sploshing around. WTF do I do with it in a way that protects it?

If it's as much as it sounds, you can't beat giving some of it to a professional for him to tell you what to do with the rest.

For instance, http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/money_and_tax/tax/income_tax/artists_exemption_from_income_tax.html

I have no idea whether this might apply to you, but worth a look and a talk to someone who knows.

Ta. It is a lot of cash. I keep it liquid coz taxman. But even after his depradations there will be v hefty amounts. I am bewildered as to what to do with it, too be honest.

I know someone locally who got busted with 3kg of cocaine a few weeks back. He'd just come back from another holiday to Miami, had his Audi RS8 seized and may lose his home.

He doesn't work, is on bail. And is 22 years old.

Why the govt doesn't want a piece of the drug market is beyond me.

Seriously big money involved. Even for dumb street idiots like him, probably looking at a ten year stretch.

You really think the government should be in the business of selling crack? That would be taking nationalisation a bit far.

With or without VAT ?

Oh without, gotta make it as cheap as possible as your in competition with the cartels...

Medical - exempt supply?

Probably yep.

Morris_Dancer

Catalan Parliament is suspended:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41514398

TOPPING

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

Remainers gave a unique moment to grab the Tory party. Leave leaders are damaged, especially Boris . A remainer needs to tack towards a soft Brexit position to get the job. Once secure, they can tack back.

The Leavers are in the majority in the party at large. Have you not noticed how insanely antagonistic they are to any conceivable candidate who supported Remain? They're not going to accept a soft Brexit delivered by any of them.

One of the big myths about the election was that May wanted a large majority to be able to sideline the Brexit headbangers, whereas she wanted it to pursue a hard Brexit unimpeded.

Mexicanpete

surbiton said:

Mexicanpete said:

surbiton said:

I think we could be looking at an unlikely hero to save us from Brexit.

If we come to a situation when a second referendum is put forward, Jeremy Corbyn could sway enough Labour Leave voters to Remain.

I also think JC could get some changes in FoM and could present that to the country much like Harold Wilson did in 1975.

Nice idea, but Corbyn is no Harold Wilson, although both would probably be grateful for the distinction.

Wilson was a pragmatist Corbyn a clown!

Even Nick Clegg likes him.

I am not sure I understood Clegg's thought process. Was he suggesting join Labour to stop hard Brexit, but if you don't like Corbyn, join the Tories to stop hard Brexit? Err yeah, ok?

CarlottaVance

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/joemurphylondon/status/915924398795890688

i) Osborne...
ii).....

bigjohnowls

Casino_Royale said:

If i detect it's just core Remainers looking to ditch May, I will smell a rat and start to tack back to her.

Good TM is fantastic news for Corbyn

TOPPING

Casino_Royale said:

If i detect it's just core Remainers looking to ditch May, I will smell a rat and start to tack back to her.

= the parlous state of the Conservative Party in one PB post.

RobD

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

If i detect it's just core Remainers looking to ditch May, I will smell a rat and start to tack back to her.

= the parlous state of the Conservative Party in one PB post.

It’s a sorry state of affairs. Talk about bring between a rock and a hard place.

TOPPING

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

If i detect it's just core Remainers looking to ditch May, I will smell a rat and start to tack back to her.

= the parlous state of the Conservative Party in one PB post.

It’s a sorry state of affairs. Talk about bring between a rock and a hard place.

tbf @Casino is pretty flaky; it was only a few weeks ago that he was packing his bags in advance of Labour forming a govt after the GE result was announced.

RobD

Morris_Dancer said:

Catalan Parliament is suspended:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41514398

We seem to be approaching a denouement in this saga...

bigjohnowls

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

If i detect it's just core Remainers looking to ditch May, I will smell a rat and start to tack back to her.

= the parlous state of the Conservative Party in one PB post.

+1

surbiton

Am I the only one who wants Theresa May to stay as PM ?

david_herdson

Jonathan said:

The model is there. Get their man on the final two, make sure the Brexiteer is flawed. Force them to withdraw.

No-one who gave the faintest sniff of going back on Brexit could win. A flawed Brexiteer would still beat an unrepentent Remainer.

Stark_Dawning

CarlottaVance said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/joemurphylondon/status/915924398795890688

i) Osborne...
ii).....

That link is dead. Presumably the omnipotent Osborne struck it down lest his dastardly plan be exposed to the light of day.

RobD

TOPPING said:

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

If i detect it's just core Remainers looking to ditch May, I will smell a rat and start to tack back to her.

= the parlous state of the Conservative Party in one PB post.

It’s a sorry state of affairs. Talk about bring between a rock and a hard place.

tbf @Casino is pretty flaky; it was only a few weeks ago that he was packing his bags in advance of Labour forming a govt after the GE result was announced.

I’m coming round to the view a period of renewal is in order. None of the big names in the Cabinet really inspire confidence. Although I don’t live in the UK, so I won’t feel the effects of the glorious socialist revolution that is apparently coming your way

Casino_Royale

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

Remainers gave a unique moment to grab the Tory party. Leave leaders are damaged, especially Boris . A remainer needs to tack towards a soft Brexit position to get the job. Once secure, they can tack back.

The Leavers are in the majority in the party at large. Have you not noticed how insanely antagonistic they are to any conceivable candidate who supported Remain? They're not going to accept a soft Brexit delivered by any of them.

Not true, actually. I could back Hunt.

But I couldn't back Osborne.

Basically, I'd have to be convinced it was a Remainer looking to make a success of Brexit for the right reasons, and not a Remain-plot.

Casino_Royale

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

If i detect it's just core Remainers looking to ditch May, I will smell a rat and start to tack back to her.

= the parlous state of the Conservative Party in one PB post.

No, look at Jonathan's post downthread.

Why would Leavers back a Tory candidate with hidden skulduggery at work?

If it was a Remainer looking to unite the party, and deliver a safe, credible Brexit, in earnest, then that's different.

murali_s

So, about 12 months behind schedule, the Tories have started tearing chunks out of each other.

Couldn't happen to the nicer bunch!! LOL!!

anothernick

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

If i detect it's just core Remainers looking to ditch May, I will smell a rat and start to tack back to her.

= the parlous state of the Conservative Party in one PB post.

It’s a sorry state of affairs. Talk about bring between a rock and a hard place.

And it's entirely their own fault. This disaster has come about through political missteps over many years, but particularly by Cameron and May.

bigjohnowls

surbiton said:

Am I the only one who wants Theresa May to stay as PM ?

No most Lab supporters want to see her clinging on as she is a complete disaster

Most sensible Tory MPs see her as a least bad option

Most hard Brexiteers panic as per Casinos post

RobD

murali_s said:

So, about 12 months behind schedule, the Tories have started tearing chunks out of each other.

Couldn't happen to the nicer bunch!! LOL!!

You lot had your turn over the last few years, it’s only fair we have a go

PAW

SeanT - people with money are preyed upon by lawyers and accountants with tax avoiding schemes - don't invest in anything that could attract HMRC's SI. My accountant tried to steer me that way, but I don't mind paying tax so no sale. There was another investor in one of the well known film industry schemes whose suicide was reported last week.

Casino_Royale

TOPPING said:

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

If i detect it's just core Remainers looking to ditch May, I will smell a rat and start to tack back to her.

= the parlous state of the Conservative Party in one PB post.

It’s a sorry state of affairs. Talk about bring between a rock and a hard place.

tbf @Casino is pretty flaky; it was only a few weeks ago that he was packing his bags in advance of Labour forming a govt after the GE result was announced.

I'm not flaky at all.

But, it is a Corbyn administration that could cause me to re-evaluate my options.

DecrepitJohnL

surbiton said:

Am I the only one who wants Theresa May to stay as PM ?

Well, there's you, the bookmakers, and whoever subs the MP's column in the Maidenhead Gazette. Oh, and anyone in the Cabinet who thinks they'd have a better shot at the succession in 2019.

welshowl

surbiton said:

welshowl said:

FPT

@ Sean T

One thing, unless the Tories agree to an election, there won't be one I believe. Does not the FTPA require a two thirds super majority? So at present Corbyn would be in Govt on 262 plus 35 SNP plus 4 Plaid 12 Lib Dems, 1 Green, 1 Lady Harmon and 10 DUP (however unlikely) plus the Speaker = 326 v 317 meaning only the Libs or DUP abstaining is enough to out vote him if all the Tories are against. At the least at present, the wilder fringes of the programme would not see the light of day. Now the Tories, or enough of them, might decide an election is needed whatever and come 2020 (four and a half years mind) one happens anyway, but it's not exactly "like for like swap Govt replacement".

At the least you have some time if you wish to rearrange your affairs

Labour will govern as a minority. Put forward a Queen's speech. Both winning the QS and losing it, will be a win for Labour. It can show that it was prepared to legislate what it promised.

Take the point, but as long as a third of the HoC didn't want an election we'd effectively be in the realms of a "national Govt" given what could and couldn't get though HoC given the numbers as they are. Question is who is an acceptable de facto leader? Jezza might be a non starter.

Casino_Royale

bigjohnowls said:

surbiton said:

Am I the only one who wants Theresa May to stay as PM ?

No most Lab supporters want to see her clinging on as she is a complete disaster

Most sensible Tory MPs see her as a least bad option

Most hard Brexiteers panic as per Casinos post

Err.. I'm not panicking.

I'm just politically savvy.

murali_s

RobD said:

murali_s said:

So, about 12 months behind schedule, the Tories have started tearing chunks out of each other.

Couldn't happen to the nicer bunch!! LOL!!

You lot had your turn over the last few years, it’s only fair we have a go

True that!!

Unbelievably, JC is sleep-walking into number 10. Incredible stuff!!

AndyJS

21% of voters in the German election were 70 or older:

http://www.dw.com/en/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-german-electorate/a-40196296

Big_G_NorthWales

surbiton said:

Am I the only one who wants Theresa May to stay as PM ?

No - but as long as Philip agrees that she is OK to do so

Big_G_NorthWales

bigjohnowls said:

surbiton said:

Am I the only one who wants Theresa May to stay as PM ?

No most Lab supporters want to see her clinging on as she is a complete disaster

Most sensible Tory MPs see her as a least bad option

Most hard Brexiteers panic as per Casinos post

I second most sensible Tory MP's

TOPPING

Casino_Royale said:

TOPPING said:

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

If i detect it's just core Remainers looking to ditch May, I will smell a rat and start to tack back to her.

= the parlous state of the Conservative Party in one PB post.

It’s a sorry state of affairs. Talk about bring between a rock and a hard place.

tbf @Casino is pretty flaky; it was only a few weeks ago that he was packing his bags in advance of Labour forming a govt after the GE result was announced.

I'm not flaky at all.

But, it is a Corbyn administration that could cause me to re-evaluate my options.

How would you describe wanting to flee the country when one particular administration is democratically voted into government by the people of that country?

Mexicanpete

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

TOPPING said:

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

If i detect it's just core Remainers looking to ditch May, I will smell a rat and start to tack back to her.

= the parlous state of the Conservative Party in one PB post.

It’s a sorry state of affairs. Talk about bring between a rock and a hard place.

tbf @Casino is pretty flaky; it was only a few weeks ago that he was packing his bags in advance of Labour forming a govt after the GE result was announced.

I'm not flaky at all.

But, it is a Corbyn administration that could cause me to re-evaluate my options.

How would you describe wanting to flee the country when one particular administration is democratically voted into government by the people of that country?

Can I have Casino's ticket out when Boris becomes unelected PM in a week or two?

David_Evershed

What are the chances of a Civil War in Spain between the Catalans and Madrid?

Guardia Civilia versus the Catalans - a Civilia War?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Evershed, it's been reported Madrid sent the army in earlier to 'assist the Spanish police with logistics'.

If it were a war, it'd be pretty one-sided unless the people got involved. And maybe even then.

FF43

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

Remainers gave a unique moment to grab the Tory party. Leave leaders are damaged, especially Boris . A remainer needs to tack towards a soft Brexit position to get the job. Once secure, they can tack back.

The Leavers are in the majority in the party at large. Have you not noticed how insanely antagonistic they are to any conceivable candidate who supported Remain? They're not going to accept a soft Brexit delivered by any of them.

Conservative Party Leavers want a Brexit that means Brexit and they want a Brexit success. The two are incompatible. It's possible they will go for the outer space option, bitterly blaming the EU as they go. Before too long someone - maybe not them - will decide the mess needs sorting out and will do a deal with the EU on their terms. The rational thing would be to do the deal now, avoid the mess and declare semi-plausibly that Brexit was a success. (Perhaps even better - abandon a course of action that harms ourselves). This lot are in denial and aren't thinking straight.

David_Evershed

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Evershed, it's been reported Madrid sent the army in earlier to 'assist the Spanish police with logistics'.

If it were a war, it'd be pretty one-sided unless the people got involved. And maybe even then.

How about a guerilla war?

Yorkcity

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

TOPPING said:

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

If i detect it's just core Remainers looking to ditch May, I will smell a rat and start to tack back to her.

= the parlous state of the Conservative Party in one PB post.

It’s a sorry state of affairs. Talk about bring between a rock and a hard place.

tbf @Casino is pretty flaky; it was only a few weeks ago that he was packing his bags in advance of Labour forming a govt after the GE result was announced.

I'm not flaky at all.

But, it is a Corbyn administration that could cause me to re-evaluate my options.

How would you describe wanting to flee the country when one particular administration is democratically voted into government by the people of that country?

It is the Stephen Hendry , Frank Bruno , type syndrome they always say they are leaving when even a Blair Labour government is about to get elected.The threat of a windfall tax on the utilities and a minimum wage back in the day scared the shit out of them.

Theuniondivvie

Slackbladder said:

dr_spyn said:

Spain playing hard ball with Catalonia.

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/915928962479640576

Another situation where no one is looking good.

Still, after due consideration & mulling it over & looking at both sides, we can probably agree that the side smacking old ladies' heads is looking the worst.

SandyRentool

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Evershed, it's been reported Madrid sent the army in earlier to 'assist the Spanish police with logistics'.

If it were a war, it'd be pretty one-sided unless the people got involved. And maybe even then.

The Luftwaffe 'helped them with logistics' last time.

AlastairMeeks

FF43 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

Remainers gave a unique moment to grab the Tory party. Leave leaders are damaged, especially Boris . A remainer needs to tack towards a soft Brexit position to get the job. Once secure, they can tack back.

The Leavers are in the majority in the party at large. Have you not noticed how insanely antagonistic they are to any conceivable candidate who supported Remain? They're not going to accept a soft Brexit delivered by any of them.

Conservative Party Leavers want a Brexit that means Brexit and they want a Brexit success. The two are incompatible. It's possible they will go for the outer space option, bitterly blaming the EU as they go. Before too long someone - maybe not them - will decide the mess needs sorting out and will do a deal with the EU on their terms. The rational thing would be to do the deal now, avoid the mess and declare semi-plausibly that Brexit was a success. (Perhaps even better - abandon a course of action that harms ourselves). This lot are in denial and aren't thinking straight.

The True beLeavers have moved on from "any Brexit is better than no Brexit" and are currently at "my Brexit would be better than this Brexit".

When it all goes horribly wrong, no doubt they will wallow in the illusion of "Brexit betrayed".

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Evershed, if it comes to that, nobody wins.

Elliot

FF43 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

Remainers gave a unique moment to grab the Tory party. Leave leaders are damaged, especially Boris . A remainer needs to tack towards a soft Brexit position to get the job. Once secure, they can tack back.

The Leavers are in the majority in the party at large. Have you not noticed how insanely antagonistic they are to any conceivable candidate who supported Remain? They're not going to accept a soft Brexit delivered by any of them.

Conservative Party Leavers want a Brexit that means Brexit and they want a Brexit success. The two are incompatible. It's possible they will go for the outer space option, bitterly blaming the EU as they go. Before too long someone - maybe not them - will decide the mess needs sorting out and will do a deal with the EU on their terms. The rational thing would be to do the deal now, avoid the mess and declare semi-plausibly that Brexit was a success. (Perhaps even better - abandon a course of action that harms ourselves). This lot are in denial and aren't thinking straight.

I was a reluctant Leaver, but are you seriously arguing it's impossible to be successful as a moderately largish country while being outside the EU?

Elliot

DecrepitJohnL said:

surbiton said:

Am I the only one who wants Theresa May to stay as PM ?

Well, there's you, the bookmakers, and whoever subs the MP's column in the Maidenhead Gazette. Oh, and anyone in the Cabinet who thinks they'd have a better shot at the succession in 2019.

I want Theresa May to stay in the medium term. Mainly because I feel that her replacement would inevitably mean a Corbyn majority.

nichomar

David_Evershed said:

What are the chances of a Civil War in Spain between the Catalans and Madrid?

Guardia Civilia versus the Catalans - a Civilia War?

None, but a military take over is quite likely and would be supported by most of the rest of the country

Casino_Royale

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

TOPPING said:

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

If i detect it's just core Remainers looking to ditch May, I will smell a rat and start to tack back to her.

= the parlous state of the Conservative Party in one PB post.

It’s a sorry state of affairs. Talk about bring between a rock and a hard place.

tbf @Casino is pretty flaky; it was only a few weeks ago that he was packing his bags in advance of Labour forming a govt after the GE result was announced.

I'm not flaky at all.

But, it is a Corbyn administration that could cause me to re-evaluate my options.

How would you describe wanting to flee the country when one particular administration is democratically voted into government by the people of that country?

Prudent.

AndyJS

Peter Hitchens:

"The Tory Party reminds me of those billionaires, unable to face death, who sought eternal youth with injections of monkey glands, or whatever it was. Aldous Huxley wrote an enjoyable novel about this, called ‘After Many a Summer’, whose end I will not reveal to you. But astute readers will have spotted that the phrase ‘after many a summer’ comes from Tennyson’s melancholy poem ‘Tithonus’, the lament of a character from Greek myth who sought to live forever, but omitted to check the small print.
It is many years now since I decided to stake all my influence, such as it was, on trying to get British patriots to abandon the Tory Party."

http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2017/10/zombie-toryism-what-have-we-done-to-deserve-this-.html

williamglenn

AlastairMeeks said:

When it all goes horribly wrong, no doubt they will wallow in the illusion of "Brexit betrayed".

There's a huge amount of latent acrimony that will come out when it all blows up. Imagine how angry ambitious young Leave MPs will be when they realise they may have prematurely aborted their political careers by parroting lies fed to them by the Brexiteer wing of the party.

rkrkrk

tlg86 said:

FPT:

SeanT said:

The fall in the £ and the coming slowdown/recession is killing off the immigration debate, anyway. The numbers are dropping fast.

Wrong.

The net migration numbers are falling. Partly driven by less immigration but also by emigration.

What I don't know is how stats deal with EU citizens becoming UK citizens whilst in the country.
Imagine a lot of those who have been here a while and want to stay will be doing this.


https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/24/net-migration-to-uk-drops-to-lowest-level-for-three-years

Yorkcity

SandyRentool said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Evershed, it's been reported Madrid sent the army in earlier to 'assist the Spanish police with logistics'.

If it were a war, it'd be pretty one-sided unless the people got involved. And maybe even then.

The Luftwaffe 'helped them with logistics' last time.

And the Mussolini air force, Britain and France stood aside.

rpjs

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Evershed, it's been reported Madrid sent the army in earlier to 'assist the Spanish police with logistics'.

If it were a war, it'd be pretty one-sided unless the people got involved. And maybe even then.

Agreed. The most the Catalans could field would be their Mossos d'Esquadra (literally "squaddies") regional police, and whether or not individual officers are pro- or anti- independence, I would imagine most would not be interested in taking part in a civil war. Police officers tend to be on the side of law and order.

Spain does not have conscription. I don't know if the Spanish Army recruits its units on a local basis like the British Army does, but even if there are Catalan-recruited units, I doubt that those who are in favour of independence would be likely to have signed up to join the army.

I think a worst case scenario could be some of the more extreme nationalists taking the ETA / IRA road, but I don't think Catalonia has any tradition of that.