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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Following her Boris paternity test joke Emily Thornberry becomes favourite to succeed Corbyn
In the last few days there’s been a move to Emily Thornberry in the LAB leadership betting where she’s now favourite almost across the board.
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And to go off-topic immediately, Sputnik 1 was launched sixty years ago today. Four years later a man flew in space, nine years later the US overtook the USSR in the space race, and twelve years later man walked on the Moon.
Since then access to space has revolutionised civilisation. And all thanks to a little bleeping satellite.
I disagree - he'll only go if his health fails and I reckon he's in quite good shape.
I suppose there's a first time for everything.
Emily Thornberry.
Prime Minister Emily Thornberry.
Just let that terrifying notion sink in.
This kneejerk reaction is pathetic.
Our flag and patron saint is honouring some Johnny Foreigner who never stepped foot in L’Angleterre.
Bloody foreigners not coming over here and stealing our patron saints and flags.
She's also full of confidence which is understandable when you look at the performance of Accrington Stanley's finest in Manchester ths week
Technical speech-making note: usually it's unwise to laugh at your own jokes, but in the clip she seems to pull it off, by making herself part of the fun, like equals chuckling together in a room rather than a lofty speaker haranguing the masses.
One of the less reported aspects of the Labour leadership election rule change is that it only applies to contests in which the incumbent is not taking part. That means to challenge a sitting Labour leader, the backing of 15% of MPs is still needed. That, in turn, makes an incumbent leader pretty hard to replace - especially one that might be in office. If the wrong leader is elected from Momentum Ltd's point of view, there is no easy way to make amends.
Labour don't have a great track record at electing women to leadership positions....
......and the song works. Oh, Em-ily-Thorn-Ber-ry
Make a witty crack about someone flaling around in government and all of a sudden you are leadership material.
Lady Nugee should push her posho credentials, as Cameron showed, the country likes a posho.
That said, she is probably Labour's most effective performer to any audience but the true believers, and a million times more comfortable in her own skin than is May.
She may not be as left wing as Jeremy - but she has shown rather more sense than other Labour MPs in backing him and trying to make the best of it.
Her past misteps are minor as you say.
My concern would be is that she is very obviously London + middle class - and so may struggle to get traction criticising the Tories on certain topics...
Re: Techies will continue to sneer.
Here's a novel idea: if you're going to make laws about something, either understand what it is you're making laws about, or find someone who does and get them to explain it to you. If you don't understand it, maybe you should wait to make a law about it until you do.
Note:
This applies on both sides of the Atlantic.
Jezza was very poor at first, but he improved with practice, something our current PM has not done. "She ain't no politician bruv".
Lady Nugee I put in the same bracket as George. No matter what they say, the smarminess comes across strongly.
I think rather than Rudd not understanding encryption its the Register that doesn't understand intelligence work.
Also if you read what she says, what they want the tech community to do is a bit more subtle than a straight backdoor into the encryption.
Some brilliant comments under that article from the tech community, who have of course been saying the same to several Home Secretaries over the years.
This from a woman who managed to blow a 20% lead in four weeks????
If May stays as leader then I don't think there will be an early GE. If she is replaced, then I think the parliamentary Tory party will not be able to hold together sufficiently to prevent an early election. That's why it is unlikely she will be replaced until after 2020. They'll just soldier on.
And dont think this doesnt continue to play against Labour. It is just this sort of attitude that lost parts of the North and the Midlands for them in June..
We’re seeing the same in the UK and the US, that the party that used to support the working man is being taken over by the “liberal” middle classes who find their own traditional voters to be, umm, how to say, deplorable.
But just because this is your preference doesn't mean you'd stop others, I imagine?
Bizarre.
It speaks volumes about PB that so many PG posters including OGH cant see this.
"I do feel that there is a sea of criticism for any of us who try and legislate in new areas, who will automatically be sneered at and laughed at for not getting it right..."
Surely 'getting it right' is a sine qua non for any legislation ?
Or perhaps she has picked up the idea of beta testing from the tech industry...
The other is that it is unthinkingly illiberal -- sure the bad guys watch videos of ISIL atrocities but hands up who watched 500 Americans get shot in Las Vegas. Clearly Rudd doesn't want to lock up everyone who has watched the news, but missions creep and the zeitgeist changes and suddenly we are tracking people who watch Jacob Rees-Mogg -- after all, he wants to replace the democratically-elected PM *and* he thinks gay people shouldn't drive Bentleys, or whatever it was.
I think she was amused by the OTT display and the caricature it presented of a certain type of voter. She's easily amused and she thought it would amuse others. I admit I smiled at it so it amused me. I also admit that revealed condescension and superiority on my part but so what. Tough.
There's only a problem if you want the vote of someone like the flag displayer and the Labour Party did. That is why she got into trouble.
The real problem is that if the likes of WhatsApp add some sort of capability to fetch retained messages from a device for the UK government, so that technically the message transport is still encrypted from end-to-end, they are likely to have to do something similar for other governments, or else. Indeed China is currently interfering with the use of WhatsApp as it shares similar views to our government about such services..
So the end point of the government's brilliant idea is likely to be a severe weakening of the security of messaging services, with them riddled with "lawful access" capabilities for governments. Bad guys will use non-compliant apps and services, and where necessary tunnel through the compliant services. That almost certainly happens today unless the bad guys are particularly dim.
He could be her Willie.
Getting JRM into the cabinet is a must.
I couldn't have friends who voted leave... NFW.....I just wouldn't want to mix with that kind of blinkered, narrow minded, bigoted person. They are not characteristics that induce me to friendship. After all that vote has caused me to move country, caused my wife immeasurable anxiety and grief and her parents too, and genuinely makes me worried for the prosperity of our country which I believe will be hit a lot harder than any socialist revival under Corbyn ever could. At least an attempt at socialist redistribution would be based on good intentions to help the disadvantaged. The basis of the leave vote was purely achieved by exploiting mean spirited nationalism and xenophobia.
I really do pity the pathetic, nationalist creatures that pervade this site..the Faragists, or old pbCOM Tories, blinkered in their irrational ideology that is utterly corrosive and damaging. I couldn't be friends with them, NFW...I wouldn't want to share a beer with them. Nope.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/915482489015091201
Seriously though, the HS (and the previous one, who got a promotion) just doesn't understand the issue at all. The HO really need to have a couple of IT advisors who can give them the other side of GCHQ’s and MI5’s views on encryption.
Because having sycophants around Mrs May helped in June.
It has been clear for some time that Thornberry is highly capable, but far from putting her in a strong position for a job that isn't available, her strength puts Labour in a strong position. Labour have got a capable leader and they have also got a credible and capable successor when the time comes. The Tories have got neither. The senior parliamentary Tory echelon is correctly viewed by most people as a shower of incompetents, backbiters and headbangers.
The only option for the Tories is to build up a third force that can take votes from Labour. This can't be the Liberal Democrats (discredited) or UKIP (U-who?). A far-right Brexitoid party is possible, perhaps with Boris in it. A far-left party or movement is just about possible. It's hard to envisage where an electoral one might come from, but an extra-parliamentary one perhaps with some friends who participate in elections could be on the cards. The losing by Labour of any electoral support will be welcome by the Tories. What is obvious is that a lot of marketing will be directed at young people. Labour's promise to abolish tuition fees and restore student grants was an enormous vote-winner.
A year or two down the line things will look different because the Tories will not just hand over, not when the economy could blow almost at any time.
As for the idea that Theresa May will be the Tory leader who contests the next election, that is just a fantasy. Within a year or two she will be out and forgotten.
Remind us again why you moved county?
Btw, the other day ISTR you mentioned that you'd happily pay more tax. HMRC will willingly accept overpayments, you know.
Everyone will just move to Signal as soon as WhatsApp gets compromised.
The key company is actually Apple, they’re seriously well resourced and have shown they’re prepared to put privacy concerns of their customers above government spying requests. cf the San Bernardino gunman’s iPhone.
Yes. A Corbyn-led government will destroy Labour as a party of government, possibly forever. There would be no way back for moderate Labour MPs whose future credibility will have been destroyed by their current Stockholm syndrome pyschosis.
Reducing this to some sort of 'lol Rudd doesn't understand encryption' argument is just juvenile.
Personally I doubt she'll make it to then.
Rudd my not understand encryption but based on the comments above I also don't think she can logically work through cause and effect and identify likely consequences of decisions...
Once the encryption genie left his bottle you can't go backwards...
She's not always my cup of tea, but I'd fancy her chances against the downbeat Tories at the moment.