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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In head-to-heads Johnson comfortably beats main contenders in latest YouGov CON members’ poll
Good YouGov infographic from its CON members' poll for the Times. The top 3 in head to heads pic.twitter.com/D5LTJKPhxG
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Salmond's two constituencies were next door to each other, and indeed had a small overlap IIRC. Davidson's problem is that if she is to be installed as an MP there is nowhere in Scotland where a by-election could realistically be engineered and the Tories would have a 90% plus chance of holding the seat. That would mean a safe seat having to be found for her somewhere in middle England, where an ageing centrist incumbent is willing to make way (incidentally I could envisage my own MP Soames in Mid Sussex making way for her in return for a peerage). But that would reflect exceptionally badly on both the Scottish Tories and Davidson herself....and of course there's no guarantee either of winning the by-election or the leadership contest. I don't think there's any realistic way around Davidson stepping down as an MSP and standing as an MP at the next GE.
Comment re labour
"The many are for the feudal."
Brilliant
https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3045998-AIBU-to-think-the-singing-of-the-Jeremy-Corbyn-song-was-quite-sweet?pg=1
"I find all that uncritical adulation a bit creepy not to say Trumpesque."
"I found it all creepy and culty. I also looked at some MPs joining in the singing and thought it showed just what they will do for power."
"It made me want to puke tbh. I have to switch over when I see his face."
"I am deeply uncomfortable that JC does not seem to be truly committed to routing out antisemitism in his party. The platitudes about racism being unacceptable ring rather hollow when you look at the fact that he was absent from the Labour Friends of Israel meeting. Given all of the very real problems his party has had with antisemitism, why would you skip it?"
"One line chanted over and over by a bunch of idiots isn't "singing". It's at best toe-curlingly awful, at worst fucking creepy.
Personality cult is about right - all the swivel eyed hard left wingers are throwing everything they can at this man who has neither the skills nor personality to lead a Scout troop never mind the country."
"The many are for the feudal."
LOL!
Baroness Davidson, First Lord of the Treasury has a nice ring to it.
I didn't mention Mr Osborne, and I've said countless times he's not coming back, his political career is over.
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/913705930046525441
But you're right, Labour need to face the same reality.
The electorate was longing for the Tories to promise them something other than a kick in the teeth - they believed Corbyn's insane pledges fgs, just because they wanted them to be true.
He is inches away from Downing Street unless they get their act together in next couple of years.
That policy would have won a huge number of middle aged waverers, which as has to be repeated is why Tories didn't win (not the yuff surge).
Why on earth would anyone consider it acceptable to install such a hugely polluting device in a house in a densely populated city? On some measures wood fires are more polluting than coal, and far more so than standard gas/electric central heating. It is pure selfishness, against the spirit of the original clean air acts and strange that no-one has acted on this sooner.
Edit - the growing popularity of wood burning stoves is reportedly also causing increasing problems of deforestation across the UK
There are many problems for the Withdrawal Bill (and in particular the Henry VIII provisions), but this isn't the most important. The most important is the lack of a majority in the House of Commons for the Government.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Sir-Edrics-Kingdom-Thaddeus-White-ebook/dp/B0757PMR7F
Mr. Borough, indeed. It's an alarming situation.
If the contest is in 2022, then Jo Swinson would be a very attractive option.
What we need is a set of matchups against the Moggster to see the true colours of the Tory rank and file.
Plus I want him to resign from the cabinet before anyone else does.
In a binary choice, the "anti-" vote becomes more powerful and translates more directly into the opposing realistic choice. The Lib Dems do well when there's a cosy general consensus. Regardless of Damien Green's dreams, people won't waste a vote on continental beige when they're worried about deranged socialism or baby-eating Tories.
It's not the Parliament Act that's giving the Government that headache though.
Seek to amend it, almost certainly, but rejecting it means we leave the EU with no deal.
The Lib Dems neither achieve the Venezuelan paradise, nor prevent it.
"We've got Paddy Paddy Paddy Paddy Ashdown in the Lords, in the Lords"
Only one nation I think Davidson wants to lead - and that is Scotland.
The Conservatives can't afford to write off roughly half the electorate for the indefinite future. So what's their strategy going to be to get these people - many of whom are actively horrified at what the Conservatives are currently doing - to consider voting for them?
It may not work, of course - getting a good deal depends on what the other side want - but it's a perfectly reasonable aim.
Theresa May might yet negotiate a deal that isn't completely catastrophic. It's still not going to enthuse Remain voters.
I don't think the Conservatives have begun to realise how strategically awful their position is.
With the utilities, then the public sector could own all new power generation capacity, for example, and a state-owned supplier could be established to sell us gas and leccy in competition with the private sector providers, until the latter give up because the vast majority switch to the publicly owned option. (Or not, as the case may be)
But I would ideally (ha!) like the Cons to be on the front foot and suggest it rather than have it forced upon them by economic circumstance.
I would also like a 17.2hh unicorn for Christmas pls.
Do people not remember what these looked like when they were in public hands, or did they only interview people in their twenties and thirties?
Brexit and Corbyn are two cheeks of the same arse.
Economic illiteracy dressed up as popular, sensible choices when they are anything but.
The Tories need to get the message out that Labour are also planning to implement the referendum and see us leave, so that alone is no reason to vote for them, and they need to argue that whether you were for leave or remain, the best leave option for the country is the one they can deliver - it might not be anything like what remainers want, but it will be more positive than Labour can offer. The LDs will face the regular 'don't waste your vote' approach.
I do struggle to see how the Tories can manage this though. If any Brexit is not deemed severe enough they lose swathes of votes anyway, and even if they attempt to say to remainers that 'you're getting Brexit one way or another, and ours is better than Labour's' in as positive a manner as they can, Labour can easily outdo them in that direction - they can just say they'd keep as close to the EU as possible.
I don't see a way for them to make the appeal they need. So they are stuck in trying to make sure it is at least not disastrous as far as most people are concerned, and then doing a better job pitching domestic plans than they were in 2017.
So if anyone tells you with great confidence what the future will bring, the only certainty is that they are wrong.
Mr. Eagles, you yourself said you supported us leaving the EU, with the somewhat Cameroon cop-out that you wanted to leave in a decade (when there would've been even more integration and difficulty in withdrawing). To condemn as equivalent to socialism those who advocate the same policy a few years earlier seems unreasonable.
And we have answered the question as to whether the young will bother to vote.
That 50% of people believe banks should be nationalised is also pretty insane.
My sense is that the Tory Eurosceptics are actually the most committed to Brexit of all the political tribes - more so than the hard left, most of whose more realistic policies could be done within the EU, and significantly, more so than the Kippers, who I think could easily morph into a kind of AfD style party whose agenda wasn't defined by leaving the EU.
When the ship of Brexit goes down, it will be the IDSs and Rees-Moggs who will be the last to see the writing on the wall.
Now, I have seen arguments advanced on here as to why it is a lot more complicated and costly than it might seem, and that state ownership has been badly done in the past. But I have never been surprised at high support for nationalisation in polls. I'll bet it was pretty high when Cameron won his majority, which if I am right is another reason why as an example of why Corbynism is popular it is misplaced.
I am surprised people want to nationalise travel agents though. What's that about? Boo f***ing hoo. I'm sorry, but that is such a whinge. It is also stupid beyond belief from the Europeans if that is the case, it's insulting to their intellect and reason, and I've no reason to believe they are so stupid. We're not a small country in European terms. They are many and we are but one, but he's telling me they don't care about what we might do about things, a highly populated, economically significant european power? They don't care about what Switzerland or other nations in Europe do? Nonsense. Ok, so they are saying 'just let them go' now, what of it? That's recognition that it would be absurd for them to do anything to get us to stay (it would encourage more disruption), and if we are to go back it will be by our choice, and them in the strong corner as a result.
Now they are privatised they are seen as unresponsive, overcharging bureaucracies which put the financial interests of the shareholders and directors ahead of consumers. And they are mostly owned by foreigners to boot.
Are the Tories really going to defend the behaviour of the owners of Thames Water for instance?
No thanks.
Mrs May's strategy so far is to deny those choices so she doesn't have to face up to them. That might get her through until March 2019, but it isn't a sustainable position. (Which is one reason why I think she might choose to go right after formal Brexit).
My central prediction is that we will end up with (3) pseudo-Brexit. But we are a long way from getting consensus for that position and in particular the Conservative Party is a long way from that consensus. It may not get there by 2022.
What we’re getting is a disorderly Brexit.
You Leavers have gone from there will be no economic hit to saying the economic hit will be worth it.
Corbynites make the same argument on things like nationalisation, there’ll be an economic hit but it’ll be worth it.
Is it likely that nationalised utilities will deliver lower prices?
Possibly, if the either the politicians game the price system after nationalisation in run-up to 2025 General Election ('look prices are down!!'). Or, it really is the case that pension funds fat-cats are creaming excessive profits.
They were crap then (I'm told), and they are crap now. Maybe the crap level has reduced, I don't know, but their service is crap, their prices are crap, they're just, well, you get it.