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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The buzzword bingo on Theresa May’s Florence speech
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The buzzword bingo on Theresa May’s Florence speech
Ladbrokes have a market up on what Theresa May might say in her Florence speech tomorrow, and I get the feeling that this is another market that will help contribute to the Ladbrokes Christmas bonus fund.
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http://wapo.st/2wG1mnO and https://nyti.ms/2ydE7TA
http://wapo.st/2xS6vOH
https://nyti.ms/2ydmhzK
Mrs M's speech could be summarised thus: "Oh holy fuck! What have we done? Please help."
May has to choose between pleading, or cold threatening arrogance. My money would be on the latter. She has squared it with Boris, and the real target is surviving the Tory conference intact.
No, she won't say it. But boy do I want to back it.
https://twitter.com/AgentP22/status/910602227051646977
I suppose Tessy did kick the bottom out of that particular rusty bucket.
Hmm. I do quite like Global Trading Power, but a three word phrase is less likely than a shorter one. I've backed that, and Renaissance, both with tiny sums.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/09/the-european-court-of-justices-thirst-for-ever-more-power/
I'd start by crossing out everything that looks aimed at a domestic audience. This is not the party conference. Transitional arrangement, renaissance and bright future make some appeal. Perhaps Boris, if she starts by naming the Brexit team but she might say FS instead. It is a bit of fun but at the prices and stake limits, we are not going to get rich.
Is 'British Sea Power' in the list?
When I hear Florence speech I think of the Magic Roundabout.
1 fucking goal scored from those chances.
eg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qN_Oucipr8
If you ask Shadsy on Twitter he’ll price up that for you.
I'm afraid you're right, where are the real statesmen and women when we need them?
We're going to have 36 hours of speculation for what she is going to say.
And, hilariousy, she is then going to repeat the bones of the Lancaster House speech, with something on a two year transition - I reckon...
My sources tell me that it will be "Rocket Man Boris Johnson" who will be the first Brit to walk on the moon.
Sounds about right timing. Mistake was calling Article 50 before the German election given we knew nothing would happen between the two events.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/these-young-german-voters-explain-why-angela-merkel-is-on
The same official describes Merkel’s way of operating: “Merkel is a phenomenon. First, she breaks every big problem down into small parts. In this way she gets round some issues, and pushes others well into the future. It’s like an algorithm.
“Second, she turns everything into a process. She leads like a teacher: She hands out tasks, everyone has a place, and she knows everyone’s role. Once you’re in her process, it’s done. Third, she never loses her cool."
Another senior European diplomat said: “Merkel knows every dossier, in detail. She is the only leader at international meetings [e.g. G7, G20, NATO summits, European Councils] who could write a communique all by herself. She can change the words in a document because she understands the subtlety of their meaning.”
At least we still have Ascension Island...
After the election Merkel will have room to move if she wants to.
Morning all.
“It is the fundamental values that we share, values of fairness, justice and human rights, that have created the common cause between nations to act together in our shared interest and form the multilateral system."
“And it is this rules-based system which we have developed – including the institutions, the international frameworks of free and fair trade, agreements such as the Paris climate change accord, and laws and conventions like the non-proliferation treaty – which enables the global co-operation through which we can protect those values.”
In other instances Merkel has repeatedly reversed position. "There will be no bailout, no bailout, no bailout, no you can't have a bailout, take this bailout".
Where the Greeks wanted both the German money and to tell the Germans what to do, the Germans in this instance want our money. We are the creditors not the debtors. The whole dynamic is different but there is none so blind as those who will not see.
As for the police federation: she may have 'insulted' them, but it's certainly arguable that she was right, and that some home (office) truths needed to be said to them.
I think the speech will get sentiment back on track (oh look, they are making plans, they are engaging, they aren't being that dogmatic).
That said, sentiment only. I still don't see a workable post-March 2019 UK that doesn't involve staying as is for the subsequent 2-3 years at a minimum.
May telling similar "home truths" to the EU leaders is very possible. Will it be helpful? almost certainly not. May combines rigidity of thought with lack of people skills in a way that makes her particularly ill suited to the task of diplomatic negotiation.
@rosschawkins: V interesting looking at Labour’s nationalisation plans… investors wouldn’t necessarily get compensated for full market value of shares.
Amount investors get could depend on how Labour thinks companies have behaved since privatisation. How much they’ve invested etc
Party has said would force by law investors to swap shares for govt debt – water firms a priority
Fundamental shift on ownership obviously, but also basis on which we do business.
https://twitter.com/PeatWorrier/status/910765448672743424
We won't progress til she goes.
. Boris has same weakness.
If you find the machinations of Tory party politics still interesting, even now, you really deserve a political geek award. If you notice from this site the attritional effect of politics have driven many of us away, leaving mostly the hard core headbangers, or Mr Morris talking about F1.
At least I still have gigs. I saw the Mary Chain this week and realised why the gigs are better now than back in the day. The bands are older, sober, more professional, grateful still to be playing and that music from that era is great.
Those two would crucify Corbyn and McDonnell on the economy and win the Tories a landslide.
I watched Boris the other day....his eyes are dead, devoid of emotion. You see that look in psychiatric units, patients on lithium. Gordon Brown had a dead expression, but I kind of took that as him being blind. Boris? I dunno...it's quite unnerving....
Osborne can be exonerated, since we know he did all he could to warn Cameron that he was paying with fire. Whether today's Tory party would have him back, however, is very doubtful IMO.
By contrast, Welsh Water had the shareholders booted out in 2001 ... when Rhodri Morgan (RIP) ran Wales. WW funds itself entirely via debt.
So, what's the problem? Shares pay higher returns but are riskier than bonds. Corbyn seems to be struggling to reach a solution akin to WW but he's a less skilful politician than Morgan.
If the owners of the English water companies are gaming the system to obtain 10-15%/y returns on the equity, offset by very low-interest debt, why shouldn't shareholders or speculators carry the can? The rule for investors is caveat emptor.
However, there also seems to have been a regulatory failure as Thames Water's owners shouldn't be allowed to behave this way. The previous water regulator, i.e. of 20 yrs ago, sort of admitted this on the programme. Bottom line: water prices in Thames region are higher than they should be.
I don't currently own any shares but I have done in the past. If I owned shares in former nationalised industries and they were compulsorily converted into gilts, paying a lower, but safer return, I don't think I'd be outraged.
Mr. Eagles, only to people who think the Thracian shepherd made a good emperor.
Off topic but on today's news
After the recent death of a pedestrian by the cyclist the Govt is going to look at the law, even though the person was successfully prosecuted and I believe a total of 0.3 pedestrians are killed by cyclists a year!
I heard that in the Netherlands children are taught to open car doors using the hand furthest away from the door. This limits the amount you can open the door initially and forces you to turn around so you can see behind you.
Brilliant idea which would save the lives of many more cyclists and motor cyclists every year.
Doing so had never crossed my mind. I will try and remember to do so, but of course it is a habit you need to instil.
Priorities.
Blame Blair/Brown for not holding a referendum on the Lisbon treaty.
Brexit would have been avoided if those two shysters had stuck to their pledges.
The police federation speech was given to the wrong audience. It was insulting because her attacks were aimed at rank and file plods and plonks and not the chief officers (ACPO as was, or even, heaven forfend, the Home Secretary) who might be in a position to change policies. It's like haranguing the guard if there are no seats on a ram-packed train.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/this-is-mays-last-chance-toreassure-business-d0w60kwft