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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: August 22nd 2013
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: August 22nd 2013
2010: Con 1,502 (27%), Lab 2,756 (49%), Eng Dems 1,415 (25%)
2011: Con 831 (21%), Lab 2,205 (55%), Ind 416 (10%), Eng Dems 574 (14%)
2012: Con 954 (30%), Lab 2,269 (70%)
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The great sporting news just keeps on coming ;-)
Great Britain showjumpers win European Championship gold,first time in 24 years
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/equestrian/23804968
and latest
HOCKEY England women reach EuroHockey final with 3-2 penalty shootout victory over the Netherlands after their match finished 1-1
England women in final for first time since early 1990's.
Shame about those swimmers, eh?
Has generated over 2000 comments so safe to say he's stirring things up, LOL;
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100231060/are-atheists-mentally-ill/
It's elected by 3rds. The seat up now was won by a Tory but the last time the ward was contested Labour won it.
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2013/08/22/polling-chart-of-the-year/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
My sources tell me that overnight it will be announced that Luis Suarez has signed a new four year contract with Liverpool.
But, but the big news, it has a release clause allowing him to leave if a champions league club makes a bid of 60m
Neil yes ;-)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/swimming/23592744
So the seat up for re-election was the Tory elected in 2010, but in 2012, a Labour councillor was elected in the same ward.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10260698/David-Cameron-goes-topless-on-Polzeath-beach-in-Cornwall.html
You're a hard man. I maintain that GB has a swim team to be proud of.
My sources tell me that overnight it will be announced that Luis Suarez has signed a new four year contract with Liverpool.
Oh sweet lord you've done it now.
it's either
1) Suarez has handed in a transfer request
2) Madrid have offered 30m and Benzema
At least it shows I read the articles :-)
very refreshing after a hard day pointing at squid.
Foptastic.
Don't rise to it, Tim, he only does it to wind you up.
A property company run by the Labour Party has paid no tax in eight years, despite earning millions of pounds in rental revenues, the Daily Telegraph can reveal.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10260728/Labours-property-firm-paid-no-tax-for-eight-years.html
Incompetence or something else?
You decide
Last week,we had labour on immigration
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2390992/Chris-Bryant-MP-admits-Labour-Party-let-immigrants-ditching-worker-controls.html?amp;ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
and now Europe -
Front of the FT - Miliband urged to ‘lance the EU boil’ by committing to referendum
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/83749/the_financial_times_friday_23rd_august_2013.html
Where tories go,labour follow ;-)
http://www.itv.com/news/2013-08-22/big-ron-enters-the-celebrity-big-brother-house/
Or make money in a property boom.
http://thelincolnite.co.uk/2013/07/by-election-confirmed-after-lincoln-councillor-leaves-office/
The councillor who was a former Tory leader of the City Council was kicked out after failing to show up for any meetings for six months. He had been a councillor for Bracebridge for 8 years.
Edit: five candidates for the by-election. Tory, Labour, Lib Dem, UKIP and Trade Union Socialist Coalition.
I can no longer back high-speed rail. There are better ways to spend £50bn than on one line
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-23797072
Edit: I'm not trying to get excited about this show.
Success = Performance minus anticipation and all that jazz
Yes, Mandelson himself had already revealed that Labour backed it in the first place for political reasons with no idea whether it was going to be worth it or not.
Will Ed Miliband use party conference to execute U-turn over EU referendum?
"A Labour Party spokesman declined to say why it did not cut its administrative costs.
He said: “The Labour Party is a not for profit organisation,"
The not for profit party who ran the country in the same way.
There could be 100 overs tomorrow to make up for today's truncated proceedings.
Yes and we now know that support was total nonsense and the whole thing was a prop for their electioneering.
tim and others: the Ipsos-Mori issues poll is not good news for Labour
Mark Senior and others: the Ipsos-Mori issues poll is not good news for Liberal Democrats
"It's the economy, stupid."
If people are happy with the economy, they will not be keen on a change of government. (Or at least, not wish to see the Conservatives defeated.) Saying you are worried about immigration in the abstract is one thing, worrying about your personal economic position is another. If people feel more confident about their circumstances, they may wish for greater controls on immigration, but they will vote for the party they think delivered it. Which, in this case, in the Conservatives.
Lincoln 5 Con hold 5 Lab gain
Scarb Newby 5 Con gain 4 Ind hold 1 UKIP gain
Scarb Ramshill 5 Con hold 2 Lab gain 2 LD gain 1 UKIP gain
I think we should enshrine in law a once-a-decade (with fixed dates) vote on:
"Are you happy for the United Kingdom to remain a member of the European Union."
In this way, no one can 'game the date'. And British governments gain enormous negotiating power, especially as the referendum date nears - "Oh, I'm sorry M. Hollande, with the upcoming referendum, I daren't vote for this. What can you give me, that might make the British people like the EU more?"
I'm shocked Mandelson dared to admit it!
My dad has gone Kipper, but would vote to stay in in a referendum! I suppose it is the parallel of those ScotNats who would vote to stay in.
Nowt queerer than folk!
The monster's mouth narrowed into a malicious grin, and he began to speak in his heavy Transylvanian accent.
"Ah, my boy! I see you still haven't slimmed down yet! Why?" he asked, and he leaned across the desk menacingly.
"I tried, Lipo! Honest, I tried!" Fat Boy replied, quivering with fear!
"Trying is not good enough!" roared the monster, and quick as a flash he leapt out from his chair, grabbing Fat Boy in the process, and using his immense strength, flinging him onto the nearby couch! The Lipo-Suction Monster then leapt back behind the desk, opened a drawer and produced a massive hacksaw!
"No, please!" whimpered Fat Boy pathetically. "Please, don't!"
But the monster was adamant to teach him a lesson! He leapt back towards the couch and proceeded to hack off Fat Boy's pseudo-feminine man-boobs! Mutilated and bleeding, Fat Boy begged for mercy. But the Lipo-Suction Monster next did something that even Fat Boy swore was just a myth: he extended his twelve-inch long proboscis, and used it to puncture the poor lad's blubbery abdominal region! And then to suck hard!
"Nooooooooo!" Fat Boy screamed, as he felt the monster guzzle up his precious life-fat, and within moments he was just a sack of skin and bones, fat-less it has to be admitted, but unfortunately life-less too. Letting out a satisfied belch and a soft, low growl of contentment once he had drained every last drop of his victim's, er, "load", the Lipo-Suction Monster then left the doctor's surgery.
Disclaimer: I wrote the original draft of this as a teenager (some twenty-odd years ago) in a school rough-book
If being outside the EU turned out to be a mistake, then I suspect we'd see a referendum again. Plus - of course - the world's most embarrassing and one-sided re-entry negotiations. (Most likely, if the Eurozone was a huge success and we were outside it, we would simply be very integrated members of the EEA.)
Labour 577 (38.6%)
Conservative 480 (32.2%)
UKIP 345 (23.1%)
Lib Dem 75 (5%)
TUSC 14 (0.9%)
2 spoilt votes
He wants a better deal on Europe, but wanTs to stay in.
It is not terribly logical, but that is voters for you!
Lab 1165 LD 261 UKIP 231 Con 225 Ind 106 Eng Dem 98 TUSC 72
Full result then was Con 651 Lab 613 UKIP 425 LD 67 Ind 47
A terr-rrible night for the blues .
The more I look at this alleged attack the more it militarily at least makes sense. In Damascus insurgents have, since late July, have been very busy in the areas where the chemical attacks (multiple) have been reported as occurring. Regime forces have been unable to boot them out and in fact the insurgent have made it a hot zone. With Assad;s forces stretched he is not able to truly attack on the ground in more than a couple of areas at once so a convenient way of reversing things in the Eastern Damascus suburb is to clear it by range firepower or a whiff of gas.
The chemical attack did have all the signs of a classic Warsaw Pact move, as it was followed up by heavy conventional shelling and air strikes though not quite so much ground activity.
Assad's forces have worked a scorched earth policy plenty in this war as a way of emptying the civilian population they see as supporting insurgents as well as the insurgents themselves so on that score its likely to have a measure of partial success that may allow ground troops to get in there and hold the space without actually shooting it out or just leave it a no mans land. To that the end the international community doesn't have the balls anyway is the calculation.
Here's the question that many still ask, did these attacks happen?
Who would know until soil and body samples etc get taken? Chances are the Israelis and US do as both have very large ears on Syria and that scale of weapons strike wouldn't be random. Assad's forces keep the special weapons fairly tightly within the control of particular units who are extensively monitored in their communications. Heavy rocket launches, though the methodology of these alleged attacks may not have involved such delivery tools, are completely monitorable from the moment these things heat up in their launch stands.
Thus there is every chance that the two nations above will already know from intelligence what went down.
Can someone just say "Ed is crap" and make these local election results go away for the PB Hodges?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Australian_federal_election,_2013
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_parliamentary_election,_2013
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article3850574.ece
Australia: 7th September
Norway: 9th September
Germany: 22nd September
Austria: 29th September
Makes ya proud don't it...not surprising some in Middle East still put the British down as being sly dogs that you have to watch...It wouldn't take a genius to work out where the British would have best physical access to fibre trunk cables, which ones would be most useful and also easiest to agree with the carriers to utilise the Glimerglass technology upon.
Australia: 7th September
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_federal_election,_2013
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Australian_federal_election,_2013
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_(Australia)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Labor_Party
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_system_of_Australia
Australia uses the Westminster system to form governments and instant-runoff voting (AV, basically) for elections to its federal parliament. Consequently parties have coalesced into the Australian Labor Party and a coalition of Liberal parties, with Greens, etc making up the field.
Although the involuntary replacement of Labor leader (and PM) Julia Gillard by previous PM Kevin Rudd closed the gap, the opposition coalition of Liberal parties still retain a small lead. Should that lead be reflected at the election then Liberal leader Tony Abbott will lead the next Australian federal government. Too close to call, shading Liberal.
Norway: 9th September
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_parliamentary_election,_2013
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Norway
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Norway
Norway uses the Westminster system to form governments and party-list PR to elect its unicameral parliament (Storting). Predictably Norwegian politics is fragmented, with many parties of various red, green and blue hue. The two biggest are the Labour party (Arbeiderpartiet) and Conservative party (Høyre), with Labour leader Jens Stoltenberg as the incumbent prime minister, but neither are big enough to gain a majority and coalitions are the norm.
Current polling would give parties of the right enough seats for a majority in the Storting and form a government, but the parties of the left are nowhere near this. So although the makeup of the final coalition is not known, and barring an unlikely red-blue grand coalition, it seems certain that Erna Solberg, the Conservative leader, will be the Prime Minister after the election in her capacity of leader of the largest right-wing party. Con win, albeit shared.
There y'go. Now, where are the betting sites that'll let me slap £5 on Solberg?
Latest YouGov / The Sun results 22nd August - Con 32%, Lab 39%, LD 11%, UKIP 10%; APP -29