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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast – Hurricanes, Trump’s approval rating, the EU withdrawal bill & Tory attempts to woo young voters
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Can I blame autocorrect?
Deepening uncertainties over the direction and timetable of Brexit negotiations may force Toyota (7203.T) to shift some UK production elsewhere if they are not addressed, the Japanese carmaker warned on Tuesday.
Faisal Islam? Mr 'impartial' himself?
They think it's all over...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41245719
@estwebber: Labour's Valerie Vaz says Andrea Leadsom has been "sent on in a bright outfit like that TV presenter from N Korea to tell us all is well"
Ri Chun-hee should feel mightily aggrieved
Every sentient being should hold him in contempt
For starters he didn't say that, he said that the people had had enough of experts from organisations with acronyms in their names saying they know what is best for everyone and who have been consistently wrong. And he seems to have been right about that, given the result, doesn't he? In fact we should recognise and revere him as an expert, surely?
Here we are, 1:05 in:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGgiGtJk7MA
But watch the whole thing, because you can tell from everything Islam says and everything he does, why you lost. Or rather you personally can't because the mindset which made you lose also makes you think that the sole reason you lost was yebbutbus.
And for the millionth bloody time, if you cannot distinguish between an expert and mystic Meg, how do you explain the fact that all the professors of economics in the world do not have their own LearJets?
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/01/michael-gove-was-accidentally-right-about-experts/
There should be a song about that...
"They fought the bus, and the bus won". [repeat]
Says a lot for the voters, doesn't it...
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/907669524421513216
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/907680313727504384
The case for Euroliberalism may be obvious to those who have done well out of it; but it is far from obvious to those who have lost out. The fact that those who have won seemed not only to care little for those who have lost, but failed even to make the case successfully vs an inanimate object sums up why the usual winners lost that referendum.
Brexit will not deliver £350m for the NHS
Brexit will not reduce hospital waiting times
Brexit will not create lots of new high skilled jobs in post industrial towns
Brexit will not lower their cost of living
All of the lies that bought their votes are turning to dust.
You might be right that they will blame the experts for the resulting mess, but they should reserve their contempt for Gove and his accomplices
Doesn't change the fact that Brexit is the greatest policy fuckup of my lifetime, nor dim my contempt for those who peddled it
You will think that they ought to have liked it, but there it is.
For years, there was public unhappiness at the EU. This crystallised when we were offered a referendum on the EU constitution at the 2005 election, and then denied it, when it was renamed the Lisbon Treaty. Your own side's bad faith undermined your cause.
There would never have been a referendum on EU membership if the public had been happy to be members of it.
Interesting thread.
Don't suppose the true beleeeeeeeavers on here will turn a hair as they lurch towards the rapture.
Why? Because they felt it threatened their power.
It's another thing to stand in a tin bath full of water on top of a mountain in a thunderstorm whilst waving a long steel rod and tinfoil hat whilst screaming "THOR IS A TWAT!"
Britain’s new chief trade deal negotiator has backed plans for the UK to scrap its local regulations in exchange for getting a free deal from other countries.
Crawford Falconer was appointed chief trade negotiation adviser by Liam Fox’s Department for International Trade last month after a lengthy and expensive selection process. Mr Falconer was a member of the The Legatum Institute think tank’s “special trade commission”, which drew up a report calling for Britain’s regulations to be “on the table” in negotiations with other countries.
The report, which bears Mr Falconer’s name, said the UK would have to leave the European Economic Area so that its regulations would be able to differ from those of the EU if required by the UK’s future trade partners. This approach would allow it to negotiate free trade deals with other countries that include services, the report said.
She's the gambling addict who's down to her last 2 quid on the second day of Cheltenham and has decided to throw it on a 50-1 shot.
You know that can be taken two ways, right?
Weren't we told some time ago, no deal was better than a bad deal?
However, my contempt for such irresponsible amateurism does not make me more relaxed about the present government's fixation on painstakingly finding the stupidest course of action and then heading directly for it at full pelt.
'We have to be careful about historical comparisons, but Albert Einstein during the 1930s was denounced by the German authorities for being wrong and his theories were denounced, and one of the reasons of course he was denounced was because he was Jewish.
'They got 100 German scientists in the pay of the government to say that he was wrong and Einstein said: 'Look, if I was wrong, one would have been enough.'''
I have no sympathy with Remainers who say they lost the Referendum because Leave lied on the side of a bus.
Politicians lie. It is the job of their opponents to expose the lies and convince the electorate of the truth.
It was the job of the Tories to demonstrate that Corbyn's promises were uncosted. It was the job of Remainers to demonstrate the benefits of the EU.
The Tories did not do it. Remainers did not do it. They failed and they lost. They only have themselves to blame.
Neither side is seriously negotiating, the EU because its hands are tied by plans agreed in advance and not easily ammended, and the UK because it is led by clowns thinking of their own leadership bids rather than the task in hand.
It will be at some point that UKhas fto choose between the EU27 deal, or WTO Brexit. The first is electoral suicide, whilst the WTO is the same.
The only thing I know about the Government's activities are a) the position papers, b) what various ministers say, and c) other stuff like leaked tweets.
From this I think that:
* The Government has unrealistic ambitions at painfree outcomes. It outlines scenarios without realistic appraisal of what will be needed to achieve them, and uses emotional language to describe them (eg "deep and special"). An example is the NI border, which imagined an open but electronically monitored border (using drones?)
* There are occasional outbursts from the other direction, which emotionally berate the EU ("stubborn") or, in that case of the rapidly-denied Twitter thing, actually troll it ("Please tell us the legal basis for this number")
In short, I think the Government is vacillating between two emotional states, is cting from the gut instead of thinking, and isn't in a fit state to do anything right now.
As a supplemental, I just did a quick speed-read of that Legatum Institute thingy and came away thinking that it was based more on an idealised future than a messy reality...and I don't think it's going to end happily, to be honest.
Happy to be contradicted, and I do hope I am wrong and this will end with shake-hands and an UK-EU Association Agreement, but I'm not sanguine.
There y'go. Serious question, serious answer. We good?
Correct. There is no appeal to authority in science or in politics.
Present the evidence, the data, the arguments and let people make up their own mind.
You don't say we must stay in the EU because All-Powerful All-Knowing Expert William Glenn says so.
You say we must stay in the EU because ... well, Remainers never actually did finish that sentence, so I don't know why.
People in Germany take Freedom of Movement for granted. The idea of passport control as you move across a European border is alien. He lives close to both France and Switzerland.
He reckons Angela Merkel let in large numbers of Syrian refugees because she wasn't willing to apply border controls against Austria. Once other countries knew Germany would take the refugees, it was easier to let them pass. He is relatively sanguine that the Syrians will integrate.
He thinks the EU won't reform, although it should, because there's no consensus on what that reform should be.
He thinks the SPD will join a CDU coalition if they reckon there's no viable alternative government. It's expected of them and they can rationalise it, even though it's not doing them any good from a partisan point of view.
Not sure why it needs a speech from the PM to state the obvious, though.
Worth a few quid as an outside chance as next leader, perhaps.
She now has a guaranteed majority on every committee scrutinising Brexit
Awesome!
https://twitter.com/LeaveHQ/status/907692456170409985
https://twitter.com/LeaveHQ/status/907692570167345152
https://twitter.com/LeaveHQ/status/907692638274539520
(Which isn't to say that he's not going a good job - but it's a completely different job).
What makes you so sure he isn't in with a shot Richard?
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/a-no-deal-brexit-might-not-be-as-bad-as-you-think
For all Miliband's faults, he understood Parly procedure. Probably because he didn't spend his entire career sniping from the back benches and preaching to choirs in Islington,
There cannot be many MPs in the house who have been on the losing side of a division as much as Corbo. Hard habit to break.