Some very encouraging local election results for Labour yesterday especially in Scotland.I'm on TMay going next year but she's like a clingon on a hairy arse and could drop off at any time.I still think when the Tory polling hits low to mid 30s on a regular basis expect the Tory default psyche to go from complacency to a full-blown panic attack.She might just make Christmas,the time when non-performing Premier League managers are given the push.I find the 9-2 about a Jan to March 2018 departure v. tempting and the Morgan Stanley report hints at 2018 as well. The polls between now and then will bear close examination.Once the Tory share hits 35% and less, and the trend is clearly down,TMay is a dead parrot.
Yet no poll has the Tories anywhere near 35% or less, the Tory poll range is 38 to 42% currently though I agree Labour could overtake the SNP next time or at least ensure they only have a minority of seats
Give it time, Hyufd, give it time. The silly season is barely over.
What it shows is firstly there is still a big anti Corbyn vote regardless of what the Tories do and second the collapse of UKIP and the continued flatlining of the LDs means both main parties are likely to be near 40% for some time
My crystal ball is as cloudy as yours today, Hyufd, but on the whole I think I'd be feeling a bit more comfortable if I held a red party-membership card rather than a blue one.
The short-term boost to the economy from a sharp devaluation of the £ will be wearing off soon, inflation is creeping up, and as for the Brexit negotiations..... Could be a tough winter, but we'll see.
The Tories have won most seats in 3 consecutive general elections, at most they have 1 more win in them and if they do it will largely be down to Corbyn as 1992 was largely down to Kinnock
Yet no poll has the Tories anywhere near 35% or less, the Tory poll range is 38 to 42% currently though I agree Labour could overtake the SNP next time or at least ensure they only have a minority of seats
I agree up to a point. I think political opinion has been roughly frozen since the election - Labour got a modest extra surge from small-m momentum, but otherwise most people have put politics on hold while they enjoy their holidays and idly wait to see what emerges from the Brexit mess. I wouldn't describe it as a success for May or a failure for Corbyn, more a holding pattern. It is, after all, just 3 months since the election! (Feels more like a year, doesn't it?)
Normally one would expect some serious mid-term problems in a year or so. Brexit makes predictions based on past experience difficult to judge, though - people will see politics mainly through the prism of whether negotiators are being seen to be doing a good job for Britain. The Tories might be doing quite well, or really awfully. Who knows?
Pretty much yes, and whilst Brexit could make the Tories unpopular, similarly people will look at labour and Corbyn in a way they didn't at the last election (ie as a potential government, rather than just a safe protest vote).
Not sure why Brexit should make the Cons unpopular. A majority of people voted for it.
Lab, meanwhile, need to create enough confusion so as to appeal to Brexiters and Remainers, which I think they are sort of doing (whether by luck or design...).
Meanwhile, sadly, the only confusion the Cons are creating is between hard and harder Brexit with nary a glance towards the 48%.
How's the punting going? Been slack around here but the NH starts to crank up a gear soon, and I'm really looking forward to the new season. Seen any interesting juveniles.
(Horses, that is. Ahem.)
Are we talking juvenile hurdlers or promising 2-y-o ? If the former, no, not really as anything that wins a Class 4 or lower handicap over a mile and a quarter as a 3-y-o "could" be a Triumph Hurdle prospect for next year.
As for 2-y-o this season, plenty who look good and run well on debut but don't always go on. I was at Sandown at the back end of July and saw one called BOLD REASON, from the Gosden yard, run fourth in a 7-furlong maiden. He was my paddock pick that night and will learn a lot from the experience. Probably no world beater.
Like you, I always like a good maiden in the autumn (Ahem).
I've always thought the difference a jockey makes is fairly marginal - most can boot home the best horse if they are on it -
Eh??
Mick Kinane on Grand Lodge in the St. James's Palace Stakes Lester on Royal Academy at the Breeders' Cup John Francome on Sea Pigeon in the Champion Hurdle Luke Harvey on Cool Ground in the Welsh National etc...etc
Lol! I won't argue, but just for fun, check out Mick Kinane on Rock Of Gibraltar in the Breeders Cup. He certainly made a difference that day!
And as for Leg-Lock Luke....well!
sorry as to Mick Kinane on RoG in the Breeders Cup well yes! Not anyone's finest hour; many a jock told to keep handy ends out with the washing for far too long...
Mr. Topping, the Government will struggle because those opposed to leaving the EU will be against them, and those against the particular type of departure we have will also be unhappy or opposed.
Think there might be fewer refuseniks for this and future votes than Article 50. Be surprise if any Tory (excepting Clarke) or DUPer votes against the 2nd reading. And no more than 5 for the 3rd reading. Given 5-10 Labour MPs will join the govt vote and 15 or so probably abstain, it'll be a clear majority.
How's the punting going? Been slack around here but the NH starts to crank up a gear soon, and I'm really looking forward to the new season. Seen any interesting juveniles.
(Horses, that is. Ahem.)
Are we talking juvenile hurdlers or promising 2-y-o ? If the former, no, not really as anything that wins a Class 4 or lower handicap over a mile and a quarter as a 3-y-o "could" be a Triumph Hurdle prospect for next year.
As for 2-y-o this season, plenty who look good and run well on debut but don't always go on. I was at Sandown at the back end of July and saw one called BOLD REASON, from the Gosden yard, run fourth in a 7-furlong maiden. He was my paddock pick that night and will learn a lot from the experience. Probably no world beater.
Like you, I always like a good maiden in the autumn (Ahem).
I've always thought the difference a jockey makes is fairly marginal - most can boot home the best horse if they are on it -
Eh??
Mick Kinane on Grand Lodge in the St. James's Palace Stakes Lester on Royal Academy at the Breeders' Cup John Francome on Sea Pigeon in the Champion Hurdle Luke Harvey on Cool Ground in the Welsh National etc...etc
Lol! I won't argue, but just for fun, check out Mick Kinane on Rock Of Gibraltar in the Breeders Cup. He certainly made a difference that day!
And as for Leg-Lock Luke....well!
sorry as to Mick Kinane on RoG in the Breeders Cup well yes! Not anyone's finest hour; many a jock told to keep handy ends out with the washing for far too long...
Not sure what his instructions were but I was told O'Brien nearly punched his lights out after the race! I doubt Kinane did it on purpose. Missing the break at Santa Anita is often terminal, but the horse was so good he could have made the ground up down the back and still had enough in reserve to win. He opted instead for a sprint down the home straight and nearly got there, but there was one too good for him.
Just a bad day at the office. O'Brien didn't sack him. Says everything.
Surely by far the largest grouping in the Commons is the careerists. Almost all MPs ultimately belong to this grouping although some eccentrics who have very safe seats personally and no ministerial prospects are more sanguine about the consequences for their colleagues than others.
In some ways the tiny majority that the government enjoys limits the scope for the token protest on their side. Everyone, even bone heads like Peter Bone, is very aware that the government has no room for manoeuvre. I agree with Alastair that this means they will fight for what they want internally (such as more control of the Ministerial discretion) but then support the group decision...
I think that unlikely in the case of the Withdrawal Bill. Unamended, there's no way that (say) Ken Clarke or Dominic Grieve will vote for it; I would expect extensive amendments to be voted through. Likewise, Leadsom's Jacobite changes to Commons rules will probably struggle to gain acceptance.
In themselves, these might be small defeats, but they will both encourage, and grant further opportunities for, further opposition.
I wonder, though, whether the Bill isn't designed to accommodate some concessions. Some of the measures seem so OTT as to be more or less indefensible. It's possible to think that actually we're NOT going to have a very rough ride in the Commons - the swing votes will be the Dealers (as Alastair's excellent analysis impliicitly identifies), and the Bill perhaps quite cleverly sets up some deals for them. Perhaps they'll feel that if the Henry VIII excesses are watered down and some special causes addressed, honour is satisfied and they can vote the rest through.
I'll admit to similar thoughts - though my view is that they were actually hoping to get away with it (Leadsom's egregious attempt to rig the committee system suggests as much).
There is certainly a tendency in politics to meet utterly unreasonable proposals half way, and think that you've achieved something. In this case the government's majority is possibly small enough that the Dealers alone won't be able to deliver what they want. I guess much might depend on the attitude of the Labour leavers.
The David Lammy report is interesting but seems to lack coherence. But that might be the BBC report of it.
BAME kids are more likely to be in the prison system and they're more likely to come from one-parent families. Not sure that the Authorities can force couples to stay together.
They tend to get longer sentences because they're less likely to take the advice of their solicitors. Not sure that's the fault of the solicitors.
The report seems to blame racism for everything. That may be a factor, but association doesn't prove causation. Still this is 'social' science not real science, so what do I know?
Whether he is right or not (and indeed whether the characterisation of his view is accurate) doesn't really matter. Much of the reports recommendations are sensible reforms of benefit to the whole criminal justice system in any event.
Some very encouraging local election results for Labour yesterday especially in Scotland.I'm on TMay going next year but she's like a clingon on a hairy arse and could drop off at any time.I still think when the Tory polling hits low to mid 30s on a regular basis expect the Tory default psyche to go from complacency to a full-blown panic attack.She might just make Christmas,the time when non-performing Premier League managers are given the push.I find the 9-2 about a Jan to March 2018 departure v. tempting and the Morgan Stanley report hints at 2018 as well. The polls between now and then will bear close examination.Once the Tory share hits 35% and less, and the trend is clearly down,TMay is a dead parrot.
Yet no poll has the Tories anywhere near 35% or less, the Tory poll range is 38 to 42% currently though I agree Labour could overtake the SNP next time or at least ensure they only have a minority of seats
Give it time, Hyufd, give it time. The silly season is barely over.
What it shows is firstly there is still a big anti Corbyn vote regardless of what the Tories do and second the collapse of UKIP and the continued flatlining of the LDs means both main parties are likely to be near 40% for some time
My crystal ball is as cloudy as yours today, Hyufd, but on the whole I think I'd be feeling a bit more comfortable if I held a red party-membership card rather than a blue one.
The short-term boost to the economy from a sharp devaluation of the £ will be wearing off soon, inflation is creeping up, and as for the Brexit negotiations..... Could be a tough winter, but we'll see.
The Tories have won most seats in 3 consecutive general elections, at most they have 1 more win in them and if they do it will largely be down to Corbyn as 1992 was largely down to Kinnock
Well you pays your penny..... Mine's on Labour most seats next time round. Strikes me as a knocking good bet at evens, but plenty of time for events to change all that.
Not sure what his instructions were but I was told O'Brien nearly punched his lights out after the race! I doubt Kinane did it on purpose. Missing the break at Santa Anita is often terminal, but the horse was so good he could have made the ground up down the back and still had enough in reserve to win. He opted instead for a sprint down the home straight and nearly got there, but there was one too good for him.
Just a bad day at the office. O'Brien didn't sack him. Says everything.
I think Ryan Moore has a higher percentage of rides not go well than you might expect but he has a high percentage that go incredibly well so it's a case of taking the rough with the smooth.
The worst ride I ever saw was Fallon's on BOSRA SHAM in the 1997 Eclipse. I was also at Lingfield on the day of the BALLINGER RIDGE incident in 2004. Fallon was lucky to get out of the track alive.
Surely by far the largest grouping in the Commons is the careerists. Almost all MPs ultimately belong to this grouping although some eccentrics who have very safe seats personally and no ministerial prospects are more sanguine about the consequences for their colleagues than others.
In some ways the tiny majority that the government enjoys limits the scope for the token protest on their side. Everyone, even bone heads like Peter Bone, is very aware that the government has no room for manoeuvre. I agree with Alastair that this means they will fight for what they want internally (such as more control of the Ministerial discretion) but then support the group decision...
I think that unlikely in the case of the Withdrawal Bill. Unamended, there's no way that (say) Ken Clarke or Dominic Grieve will vote for it; I would expect extensive amendments to be voted through. Likewise, Leadsom's Jacobite changes to Commons rules will probably struggle to gain acceptance.
In themselves, these might be small defeats, but they will both encourage, and grant further opportunities for, further opposition.
I wonder, though, whether the Bill isn't designed to accommodate some concessions. Some of the measures seem so OTT as to be more or less indefensible. It's possible to think that actually we're NOT going to have a very rough ride in the Commons - the swing votes will be the Dealers (as Alastair's excellent analysis impliicitly identifies), and the Bill perhaps quite cleverly sets up some deals for them. Perhaps they'll feel that if the Henry VIII excesses are watered down and some special causes addressed, honour is satisfied and they can vote the rest through.
I'll admit to similar thoughts - though my view is that they were actually hoping to get away with it (Leadsom's egregious attempt to rig the committee system suggests as much).
There is certainly a tendency in politics to meet utterly unreasonable proposals half way, and think that you've achieved something. In this case the government's majority is possibly small enough that the Dealers alone won't be able to deliver what they want. I guess much might depend on the attitude of the Labour leavers.
Today's Times quoted Grieve as saying he'd vote for despite parts being "monstrous" while Clarke said he was "minded to" providing he received certain private assurances.
This is the way it's going to get done. @SouthamObserver et al will huff and puff while, behind the scenes sausages will be made in the traditional manner
Not sure what his instructions were but I was told O'Brien nearly punched his lights out after the race! I doubt Kinane did it on purpose. Missing the break at Santa Anita is often terminal, but the horse was so good he could have made the ground up down the back and still had enough in reserve to win. He opted instead for a sprint down the home straight and nearly got there, but there was one too good for him.
Just a bad day at the office. O'Brien didn't sack him. Says everything.
I think Ryan Moore has a higher percentage of rides not go well than you might expect but he has a high percentage that go incredibly well so it's a case of taking the rough with the smooth.
The worst ride I ever saw was Fallon's on BOSRA SHAM in the 1997 Eclipse. I was also at Lingfield on the day of the BALLINGER RIDGE incident in 2004. Fallon was lucky to get out of the track alive.
For the past few years I have concentrated for betting purposes on the All Weather. I emphasise 'for betting'. The racing is awful, Buggins Turn rules and some of the riding....!
In decades of following National Hunt, I have rarely felt moved to criticise a jockey. Instead, the more I got to know the sport the more impressed I became at theit skill and horsemanship. It was the reverse with the AW. I seethe, on a regular basis. Obviously it has more than its share of Non-Triers (look at the prize money....can you blame them?) and you have to allow for that but even so the number of times first prize goes to a horse that was palpably not the best is quite astonishing. I'm not talking about B Ridge type fiascos here. I have in mind sheer misjudgement, and not always by the the young or journeymen jocks.
Jamie Spencer is my pet hate. Loves to come with a dash at the finish. Looks great, and praise is heaped upon him when it works, but would the horse not have won just as easy under a more normal ride? And when he just fails to get up, nobody seems to mention it. Wonder why?
Having said all that, I do find the AW lucrative - small fields, small pool of horses and trainers, standard surface, highly visible form.
Some very encouraging local election results for Labour yesterday especially in Scotland.I'm on TMay going next year but she's like a clingon on a hairy arse and could drop off at any time.I still think when the Tory polling hits low to mid 30s on a regular basis expect the Tory default psyche to go from complacency to a full-blown panic attack.She might just make Christmas,the time when non-performing Premier League managers are given the push.I find the 9-2 about a Jan to March 2018 departure v. tempting and the Morgan Stanley report hints at 2018 as well. The polls between now and then will bear close examination.Once the Tory share hits 35% and less, and the trend is clearly down,TMay is a dead parrot.
Yet no poll has the Tories anywhere near 35% or less, the Tory poll range is 38 to 42% currently though I agree Labour could overtake the SNP next time or at least ensure they only have a minority of seats
Give it time, Hyufd, give it time. The silly season is barely over.
What it shows is firstly there is still a big anti Corbyn vote regardless of what the Tories do and second the collapse of UKIP and the continued flatlining of the LDs means both main parties are likely to be near 40% for some time
My crystal ball is as cloudy as yours today, Hyufd, but on the whole I think I'd be feeling a bit more comfortable if I held a red party-membership card rather than a blue one.
The short-term boost to the economy from a sharp devaluation of the £ will be wearing off soon, inflation is creeping up, and as for the Brexit negotiations..... Could be a tough winter, but we'll see.
Politics seems very polarised to me right now. As both parties veer to their extremes, there are fewer positive reasons to vote for either one. There is a large anti-Corbyn sentiment built into the Tory vote and it's hard to see how that changes while he remains in charge; while May's embrace of the Brexit right will drive many in the centre to hold their noses and vote for Corbyn Labour. Again, it's hard to see how that changes. With Labour recovering in Scotland, there is an opportunity for the party to build its seat numbers next time around - but whether that takes them above the Tory number is open to question.
Sunil's recent foray into Scotland (Glasgow/Edinburgh/Loch Lomond/Queensferry/Ayr) has secretly converted him into something of a Remainer, despite his continued public insistence on "52% Leave, 48% Remain".
Some very encouraging local election results for Labour yesterday especially in Scotland.I'm on TMay going next year but she's like a clingon on a hairy arse and could drop off at any time.I still think when the Tory polling hits low to mid 30s on a regular basis expect the Tory default psyche to go from complacency to a full-blown panic attack.She might just make Christmas,the time when non-performing Premier League managers are given the push.I find the 9-2 about a Jan to March 2018 departure v. tempting and the Morgan Stanley report hints at 2018 as well. The polls between now and then will bear close examination.Once the Tory share hits 35% and less, and the trend is clearly down,TMay is a dead parrot.
Scotland is looking ever-more promising for Labour. It could well be the biggest party there after the next general election.
If so, it'll be entirely down to Jezza. SLab have had so many Damascene conversions, I've heard that they've a mass application in for honorary Syrian citizenship.
Your application in the post?
Nope - but the Tories are doing all they can to persuade me to use my vote to keep them out in the Labour marginal where I live.
Surely by far the largest grouping in the Commons is the careerists. Almost all MPs ultimately belong to this grouping although some eccentrics who have very safe seats personally and no ministerial prospects are more sanguine about the consequences for their colleagues than others.
In some ways the tiny majority that the government enjoys limits the scope for the token protest on their side. Everyone, even bone heads like Peter Bone, is very aware that the government has no room for manoeuvre. I agree with Alastair that this means they will fight for what they want internally (such as more control of the Ministerial discretion) but then support the group decision...
I think that unlikely in the case of the Withdrawal Bill. Unamended, there's no way that (say) Ken Clarke or Dominic Grieve will vote for it; I would expect extensive amendments to be voted through. Likewise, Leadsom's Jacobite changes to Commons rules will probably struggle to gain acceptance.
In themselves, these might be small defeats, but they will both encourage, and grant further opportunities for, further opposition.
I wonder, addressed, honour is satisfied and they can vote the rest through.
I'll admit to similar thoughts - though my view is that they were actually hoping to get away with it (Leadsom's egregious attempt to rig the committee system suggests as much).
There is certainly a tendency in politics to meet utterly unreasonable proposals half way, and think that you've achieved something. In this case the government's majority is possibly small enough that the Dealers alone won't be able to deliver what they want. I guess much might depend on the attitude of the Labour leavers.
Today's Times quoted Grieve as saying he'd vote for despite parts being "monstrous" while Clarke said he was "minded to" providing he received certain private assurances.
This is the way it's going to get done. @SouthamObserver et al will huff and puff while, behind the scenes sausages will be made in the traditional manner
You get me wrong. I expect the Brexit Bill to become law pretty much as it is and for almost no Tories to end up rebelling as the party before country ethos is immensely powerful on the Blue benches.
Excellent article from Alastair, which identifies the tribes (perhaps too strong a word because, as he himself points out, the groupings are more fluid and less clearly defined that that implies). My only other reservation would be this assertion: "All of which implies that the Government is going to struggle seriously to get Brexit through in the way that it wants". I disagree: I think the government will get Brexit through more or less in the way that it wants - at least as far as parliament is concerned; the EU is another matter - but it will take a lot longer than the government would like.
Alistair - The prejudice in your piece against the SNP is almost comic. Apparantly the SNP, despite a consistent 30 year record of being pro-European, really don't care about Brexit because of the "other priorities" to cause "maximum disruption".
In reality looking at Europe in its widest sense, European Union, Council of Europe, EFTA etc the SNP is now probably the best connected of all of the Westminster parties - certainly the one with the most European allies - the Labour leadership isn't trusted, the Tories have none and the Liberals don't count.
Best to leave your bias on the cutting room floor when you are writing an opinion piece. This silly nonsense will certainly inform how I regard other contributions from you which touch on Scotland.
Some very encouraging local election results for Labour yesterday especially in Scotland.I'm on TMay going next year but she's like a clingon on a hairy arse and could drop off at any time.I still think when the Tory polling hits low to mid 30s on a regular basis expect the Tory default psyche to go from complacency to a full-blown panic attack.She might just make Christmas,the time when non-performing Premier League managers are given the push.I find the 9-2 about a Jan to March 2018 departure v. tempting and the Morgan Stanley report hints at 2018 as well. The polls between now and then will bear close examination.Once the Tory share hits 35% and less, and the trend is clearly down,TMay is a dead parrot.
Yet no poll has the Tories anywhere near 35% or less, the Tory poll range is 38 to 42% currently though I agree Labour could overtake the SNP next time or at least ensure they only have a minority of seats
Give it time, Hyufd, give it time. The silly season is barely over.
What it shows is firstly there is still a big anti Corbyn vote regardless of what the Tories do and second the collapse of UKIP and the continued flatlining of the LDs means both main parties are likely to be near 40% for some time
My crystal ball is as cloudy as yours today, Hyufd, but on the whole I think I'd be feeling a bit more comfortable if I held a red party-membership card rather than a blue one.
The short-term boost to the economy from a sharp devaluation of the £ will be wearing off soon, inflation is creeping up, and as for the Brexit negotiations..... Could be a tough winter, but we'll see.
Politics seems very polarised to me right now. As both parties veer to their extremes, there are fewer positive reasons to vote for either one. There is a large anti-Corbyn sentiment built into the Tory vote and it's hard to see how that changes while he remains in charge; while May's embrace of the Brexit right will drive many in the centre to hold their noses and vote for Corbyn Labour. Again, it's hard to see how that changes. With Labour recovering in Scotland, there is an opportunity for the party to build its seat numbers next time around - but whether that takes them above the Tory number is open to question.
My view is much more simplistic, Southam.
It's all going to be about Brexit for years to come, and as the full implications become increasingly apparent, the Government will get the blame, fairly or not. Corbyn will have to be trying very hard to lose and on the evidence of the 2017 GE, he won't.
Alistair - The prejudice in your piece against the SNP is almost comic. Apparantly the SNP, despite a consistent 30 year record of being pro-European, really don't care about Brexit because of the "other priorities" to cause "maximum disruption".
In reality looking at Europe in its widest sense, European Union, Council of Europe, EFTA etc the SNP is now probably the best connected of all of the Westminster parties - certainly the one with the most European allies - the Labour leadership isn't trusted, the Tories have none and the Liberals don't count.
Best to leave your bias on the cutting room floor when you are writing an opinion piece. This silly nonsense will certainly inform how I regard other contributions from you which touch on Scotland.
Alastair has a brilliant record on Scotland and the SNP.
He predicted the SNP Tsunami back in 2014, he also predicted the SNP would lose their majority last year at 8/1 when PB Nats were lobbing abuse at him for making such a forecast.
He also predicted Salmond and Robertson would lose their seats this year, when you said they wouldn't.
Excellent article from Alastair, which identifies the tribes (perhaps too strong a word because, as he himself points out, the groupings are more fluid and less clearly defined that that implies). My only other reservation would be this assertion: "All of which implies that the Government is going to struggle seriously to get Brexit through in the way that it wants". I disagree: I think the government will get Brexit through more or less in the way that it wants - at least as far as parliament is concerned; the EU is another matter - but it will take a lot longer than the government would like.
I think that's about right. But there's a "Be careful what you wish for" issue for th Government. The more they get it all throughout unamended, the more they absolutely own it. If problems arise - and who is brave enough to predict their absence? - then it won't be possible to say "That's because you wouldn't let us do..."
As a partisan observer who is also in an idiosyncratic way patriotic (I don't care about the national anthem and such, but I want our country to thrive and be happy in an improving wider world), I'm a bit torn - I would like things to go really well, and the Government to get the blame for it going badly . Confusing, and perhaps not unique.
A really fascinating Panorama special about John Redwood's leadership challenge in 1995 (including a cameo in the audience from Daniel Hannan).
With hindsight, the Conservative party and the country would probably been better off if he'd won and then gone down to a crushing defeat against Blair.
It's all going to be about Brexit for years to come, and as the full implications become increasingly apparent, the Government will get the blame, fairly or not. Corbyn will have to be trying very hard to lose and on the evidence of the 2017 GE, he won't.
Evens is a cracking price.
I'd also add the Conservatives will have been in power since 2010 and memories of the past Labour Government will be fading. In truth, the Conservatives have had four configurations in Government since 2010:
Coalition (2010-15) Cameron Majority (2015-16) May Majority (2016-17) May Minority (2017-)
It may seem we've had a lot of changes in Government even though we haven't. The ability of governing parties to re-invent themselves in Government is not to be underestimated. I could easily envisage a post-2019 re-launch of the Conservative Party in Government with a new leader and much-changed Cabinet trying to convince people it's a shiny new Government which needs our support.
It will also try to distance itself from the failings of the previous configurations and claim it has no record to defend.
It's all going to be about Brexit for years to come, and as the full implications become increasingly apparent, the Government will get the blame, fairly or not. Corbyn will have to be trying very hard to lose and on the evidence of the 2017 GE, he won't.
Evens is a cracking price.
I'd also add the Conservatives will have been in power since 2010 and memories of the past Labour Government will be fading. In truth, the Conservatives have had four configurations in Government since 2010:
Coalition (2010-15) Cameron Majority (2015-16) May Majority (2016-17) May Minority (2017-)
It may seem we've had a lot of changes in Government even though we haven't. The ability of governing parties to re-invent themselves in Government is not to be underestimated. I could easily envisage a post-2019 re-launch of the Conservative Party in Government with a new leader and much-changed Cabinet trying to convince people it's a shiny new Government which needs our support.
It will also try to distance itself from the failings of the previous configurations and claim it has no record to defend.
And you wouldn't want to back Labour Most Seats at evens now?
For the past few years I have concentrated for betting purposes on the All Weather. I emphasise 'for betting'. The racing is awful, Buggins Turn rules and some of the riding....!
In decades of following National Hunt, I have rarely felt moved to criticise a jockey. Instead, the more I got to know the sport the more impressed I became at theit skill and horsemanship. It was the reverse with the AW. I seethe, on a regular basis. Obviously it has more than its share of Non-Triers (look at the prize money....can you blame them?) and you have to allow for that but even so the number of times first prize goes to a horse that was palpably not the best is quite astonishing. I'm not talking about B Ridge type fiascos here. I have in mind sheer misjudgement, and not always by the the young or journeymen jocks.
Jamie Spencer is my pet hate. Loves to come with a dash at the finish. Looks great, and praise is heaped upon him when it works, but would the horse not have won just as easy under a more normal ride? And when he just fails to get up, nobody seems to mention it. Wonder why?
Having said all that, I do find the AW lucrative - small fields, small pool of horses and trainers, standard surface, highly visible form.
I made serious money in the 1990s following the Equitrack at Lingfield. It was a licence to print money - the form stood up well and if you had a 5-furlong race, simply back who was drawn in stall one and you could start to form an orderly queue.
I would imagine Southwell now is similar - the only Fibresand surface so if your horse likes it they can run consistently well there. My other observation is form doesn't or didn't always transfer across the Polytrack venues so horses who ran well at Chelmsford didn't always produce the same level of form at LIngfield or Kempton - not sure if that is still the case.
Wolverhampton is Tapeta now, isn't it so that's another surface to consider.
A good article from Alastair. What jumps out of the page is the sheer logical absurdity of the positions of almost all of the various factions, who persist in the bizarre and destructive delusion that the nature of Brexit is something which can unilaterally be determined in Westminster, and that there is going to be some choice of alternative deals which we can select at our leisure - including, by some as.yet unknowable mechanism, the option of pretending that the referendum and the triggering of Article 50 never happened.
Mind you, the converse delusion seems to exist on the continent. Unfortunately, that makes it worse, not better.
A really fascinating Panorama special about John Redwood's leadership challenge in 1995 (including a cameo in the audience from Daniel Hannan).
With hindsight, the Conservative party and the country would probably been better off if he'd won and then gone down to a crushing defeat against Blair.
Seems to me you are a bit over cheery about Labour prospects in Scotland on the basis of the local by election results.
You have to remember these are comparisons are with May this year which was Labour's worst results for a century at knocking on 20 per cent. In the three by elections since the Election their vote has been up by 4,2 and 10 per cent respectively which is an average of 5 per cent or just a bit less than the Corbyn "surge" into third place in the General Election.
The SNP vote has been up 6 and then down 8 and 8 or down an average of 3 per cent which is quite a bit less than their fall from grace during the General Election campaign.
The Tories are up 7 and then down 2 in each of yesterday's contests which is up 1 per cent or on average a bit less that their increase from locals to Generals.
This analysis would be supported by the detail of Labour's best result in Cardonald. Yes it is much better than this years locals but much worse than 2012, which was an election where the SNP were narrowly ahead of Labour across Scotland.
My conclusion would be that not much had changed since the General Election. The SNP are probably ahead across the country, Labour have probably improved modestly and the Tories may be starting on a downward incline.
I would be surprised if the first real Scottish opinion poll post election doesn't confirm something of the sort ie SNP in the lead, Labour into second and Tories now in third.
Sunil's recent foray into Scotland (Glasgow/Edinburgh/Loch Lomond/Queensferry/Ayr) has secretly converted him into something of a Remainer, despite his continued public insistence on "52% Leave, 48% Remain".
A really fascinating Panorama special about John Redwood's leadership challenge in 1995 (including a cameo in the audience from Daniel Hannan).
With hindsight, the Conservative party and the country would probably been better off if he'd won and then gone down to a crushing defeat against Blair.
But the Tories DID suffer a crushing defeat against Blair
Yes but they didn't learn any lessons from it. The chronology could have gone something like:
Redwood becomes PM Blair wins crushing victory Conservatives abandon experiment with extreme Euroscepticism and revert to a mainstream credible leader
The whole politics of the Blair era would have been fundamentally different. He would have had some serious opposition, and the undercurrents that led to the disaster of Brexit would never have happened.
You don't surprise me. Can think of many reasons why that should be so.
Form does NOT xfer across the tracks.
Wolverhampton is a great track - very fair test of a horse and form is reliable.
Lingfield is notoriously difficult to ride. Chelmsford is a sluggish surface and the short home straight makes it difficult for horses to win from the back.
Newcastle is strange, particularly the straight mile. I think jockeys haven't figured out how to ride it yet. I certainly haven't figured out how to bet there!
Oh, and for today, since you ask (not sure if prices still available....)
All at Newcastle (so light stakes)
2.15 Mcvicar at 12/1 2.50 Isstoora at 7/2 5.10 Fikhaar at 7/1
F1: interesting response to a tweet of mine suggested that the delay to a McLaren engine announcement is because the FIA wants Toro Rosso to have Honda engines, and the team isn't keen. The FIA is reluctant to force Honda out.
I don't think Martin Pipe made many friends in the racing community when he started out, and arguably throughout his career, but his methods were certainly effective.
Martin Pipe wrote a foreword to the Dorothy Paget book in which he described his own methods: Back in Dorothy’s racing days, the modern techniques I was able to introduce to the sport in the 1980s with such spectacular success were not available. There were no blood tests, tracheal washes, weighing machines, and I am sure she would have appreciated my scientific approach to training. My methods meant I was able to detect potential problems with the horses before they ran, rather than after they had disappointed on the racecourse, while interval training meant that the horses were fitter than ever before.
Sharpe, Graham; Colley, Declan. Dorothy Paget: The Eccentric Queen of the Sport of Kings
It has also been reported that Pipe employed a private handicapper to place horses where they could win. Pipe was a true pioneer but given his success at the bottom, his record in Graded and championship races was disappointing. His son, David, has far fewer winners but does about as well at the top level.
Hello from a regular lurker and, before Brexit mania took hold, occasional poster.
It's becoming clear that the UK has three options
1) To crash out of the EU without a deal; 2) To accept a transitional period whose length and terms will be dictated entirely by the EU; 3) To withdraw article 50 and stay in.
The chances of 3 are remote, so that leaves 1 and 2.
The humiliation (not to mention chaos in the case of option 1) inherent in both of these options will undoubtedly lead to the collapse of the government. And this will result in an election which, in all probability, will propel Corbyn into No 10.
Alistair - The prejudice in your piece against the SNP is almost comic. Apparantly the SNP, despite a consistent 30 year record of being pro-European, really don't care about Brexit because of the "other priorities" to cause "maximum disruption".
In reality looking at Europe in its widest sense, European Union, Council of Europe, EFTA etc the SNP is now probably the best connected of all of the Westminster parties - certainly the one with the most European allies - the Labour leadership isn't trusted, the Tories have none and the Liberals don't count.
Best to leave your bias on the cutting room floor when you are writing an opinion piece. This silly nonsense will certainly inform how I regard other contributions from you which touch on Scotland.
SCREAMING EAGLES Alastair has a brilliant record on Scotland and the SNP.
He predicted the SNP Tsunami back in 2014, he also predicted the SNP would lose their majority last year at 8/1 when PB Nats were lobbing abuse at him for making such a forecast.
SCREAMING EAGLES
I don't recall lobbing abuse at anyone - not even at the Tory boys on PB. None of that excuses his petty bias against the Nats as displayed in his article. It does him no credit.
A really fascinating Panorama special about John Redwood's leadership challenge in 1995 (including a cameo in the audience from Daniel Hannan).
With hindsight, the Conservative party and the country would probably been better off if he'd won and then gone down to a crushing defeat against Blair.
But the Tories DID suffer a crushing defeat against Blair
Yes but they didn't learn any lessons from it. The chronology could have gone something like:
Redwood becomes PM Blair wins crushing victory Conservatives abandon experiment with extreme Euroscepticism and revert to a mainstream credible leader
The whole politics of the Blair era would have been fundamentally different. He would have had some serious opposition, and the undercurrents that led to the disaster of Brexit would never have happened.
Except of course there is nothing at all extreme about Euroscepticism in spite of your efforts to make it appear so. It is a mainstream view with very wide support and would not have gone away simply because Blair won in 97. This is the mistake you Eurofanatics make all the time. You think being Eurosceptic is extreme when in fact it is your position that is the extreme one.
A good article from Alastair. What jumps out of the page is the sheer logical absurdity of the positions of almost all of the various factions, who persist in the bizarre and destructive delusion that the nature of Brexit is something which can unilaterally be determined in Westminster, and that there is going to be some choice of alternative deals which we can select at our leisure - including, by some as.yet unknowable mechanism, the option of pretending that the referendum and the triggering of Article 50 never happened.
Mind you, the converse delusion seems to exist on the continent. Unfortunately, that makes it worse, not better.
Fortunately March 2019 can't be put off forever.
"Just" 18 more months before Brexit will mean Brexit.
Today's Times quoted Grieve as saying he'd vote for despite parts being "monstrous" while Clarke said he was "minded to" providing he received certain private assurances.
This is the way it's going to get done. @SouthamObserver et al will huff and puff while, behind the scenes sausages will be made in the traditional manner
The trouble is Charles that the Government are using the opportunity of the Brexit bill to make a power grab that should not be allowed to stand. It is Parliament that needs to decide these matters NOT the executive. It is notable that it is not just Europhiles that are 'huffing and puffing' about this. Owen Patterson, one of the most dedicated Eurosceptics in Parliament, has also attacked these plans.
Hello from a regular lurker and, before Brexit mania took hold, occasional poster.
It's becoming clear that the UK has three options
1) To crash out of the EU without a deal; 2) To accept a transitional period whose length and terms will be dictated entirely by the EU; 3) To withdraw article 50 and stay in.
The chances of 3 are remote, so that leaves 1 and 2.
The humiliation (not to mention chaos in the case of option 1) inherent in both of these options will undoubtedly lead to the collapse of the government. And this will result in an election which, in all probability, will propel Corbyn into No 10.
Except your three options are not 'clear' at all. There are certainly other alternatives which are just as likely.
Indian woman divorce husband because dem no get toilet
Serena Williams don born her first pickin
Hurricane Irma don affect 1.2m people - Red Cross
Italy dey investigate how malaria kill girl
Kenya: Police don arrest 'car thieves' wey naked for street
Why China dey chop African Donkey
North Korea: Nine West African countries fit suffer if...
Japan: Princess wan marry ordinary man
Ghana import 30 million condoms but dem no use am
Togo: Why people no want Faure Gnassingbé
Ghana: Pickins don get gambling problem
New Lassa fever drug don land! But...
Nigeria: More strike dey come
Japan: 'North Korea no get bright future'
2018 World Cup: South Africa and Senegal go replay
Transfer window go dey close before new season
US Open 2017: Fresh faces for di finals
Fascinating language.
Past and future look to be indicated by auxiliaries don and go, not sure there's a passive as such as it seems to be indicated by dey.
You're right though it's fascinating and I'd love to know how it developed. Is it "English" or something so different it's another language that just has certain mutual intelligibility with English. Is this vaguely like Spanish sounds to the Portuguese or Danes to Swedes?
Alistair - The prejudice in your piece against the SNP is almost comic. Apparantly the SNP, despite a consistent 30 year record of being pro-European, really don't care about Brexit because of the "other priorities" to cause "maximum disruption".
In reality looking at Europe in its widest sense, European Union, Council of Europe, EFTA etc the SNP is now probably the best connected of all of the Westminster parties - certainly the one with the most European allies - the Labour leadership isn't trusted, the Tories have none and the Liberals don't count.
Best to leave your bias on the cutting room floor when you are writing an opinion piece. This silly nonsense will certainly inform how I regard other contributions from you which touch on Scotland.
SCREAMING EAGLES Alastair has a brilliant record on Scotland and the SNP.
He predicted the SNP Tsunami back in 2014, he also predicted the SNP would lose their majority last year at 8/1 when PB Nats were lobbing abuse at him for making such a forecast.
SCREAMING EAGLES
I don't recall lobbing abuse at anyone - not even at the Tory boys on PB. None of that excuses his petty bias against the Nats as displayed in his article. It does him no credit.
It was one of your fellow Nats that lobbing turnips at Alastair, not you.
F1: interesting response to a tweet of mine suggested that the delay to a McLaren engine announcement is because the FIA wants Toro Rosso to have Honda engines, and the team isn't keen. The FIA is reluctant to force Honda out.
Mr Dancer,
In the deep and dark recesses of my memory, I seem to recall that Red Bull have (had?) a veto on other teams getting Renault engines, and that they were remarkably unkeen for McLaren to get them. Is that memory correct, and have things changed in the last couple of years (perhaps following the Red Bull / Renault acrimony)?
I don't think Martin Pipe made many friends in the racing community when he started out, and arguably throughout his career, but his methods were certainly effective.
Martin Pipe wrote a foreword to the Dorothy Paget book in which he described his own methods: Back in Dorothy’s racing days, the modern techniques I was able to introduce to the sport in the 1980s with such spectacular success were not available. There were no blood tests, tracheal washes, weighing machines, and I am sure she would have appreciated my scientific approach to training. My methods meant I was able to detect potential problems with the horses before they ran, rather than after they had disappointed on the racecourse, while interval training meant that the horses were fitter than ever before.
Sharpe, Graham; Colley, Declan. Dorothy Paget: The Eccentric Queen of the Sport of Kings
It has also been reported that Pipe employed a private handicapper to place horses where they could win. Pipe was a true pioneer but given his success at the bottom, his record in Graded and championship races was disappointing. His son, David, has far fewer winners but does about as well at the top level.
Pipe revolutionised training methods. What was radical then is routine now. He seems never to have been loved by the racing Establishment. Not sure why. Prejudice? Punters loved him though, and he is a well-loved and respected figure in the sport these days.
Today's Times quoted Grieve as saying he'd vote for despite parts being "monstrous" while Clarke said he was "minded to" providing he received certain private assurances.
This is the way it's going to get done. @SouthamObserver et al will huff and puff while, behind the scenes sausages will be made in the traditional manner
The trouble is Charles that the Government are using the opportunity of the Brexit bill to make a power grab that should not be allowed to stand. It is Parliament that needs to decide these matters NOT the executive. It is notable that it is not just Europhiles that are 'huffing and puffing' about this. Owen Patterson, one of the most dedicated Eurosceptics in Parliament, has also attacked these plans.
I don't think that the government is trying to make a power grab. I think they are trying to cut out one highly dangerous area of uncertainty and complication in what is already a highly uncertain and complicated negotiation. Not having to worry about being harried at the rear by MPs would undoubtedly be convenient for that.
That's not to say that they are right on the principle, but I think that is their motivation.
Give it time, Hyufd, give it time. The silly season is barely over.
What it shows is firstly there is still a big anti Corbyn vote regardless of what the Tories do and second the collapse of UKIP and the continued flatlining of the LDs means both main parties are likely to be near 40% for some time
My crystal ball is as cloudy as yours today, Hyufd, but on the whole I think I'd be feeling a bit more comfortable if I held a red party-membership card rather than a blue one.
The short-term boost to the economy from a sharp devaluation of the £ will be wearing off soon, inflation is creeping up, and as for the Brexit negotiations..... Could be a tough winter, but we'll see.
Politics seems very polarised to me right now. As both parties veer to their extremes, there are fewer positive reasons to vote for either one. There is a large anti-Corbyn sentiment built into the Tory vote and it's hard to see how that changes while he remains in charge; while May's embrace of the Brexit right will drive many in the centre to hold their noses and vote for Corbyn Labour. Again, it's hard to see how that changes. With Labour recovering in Scotland, there is an opportunity for the party to build its seat numbers next time around - but whether that takes them above the Tory number is open to question.
My view is much more simplistic, Southam.
It's all going to be about Brexit for years to come, and as the full implications become increasingly apparent, the Government will get the blame, fairly or not. Corbyn will have to be trying very hard to lose and on the evidence of the 2017 GE, he won't.
Evens is a cracking price.
Yes, PM Jezza looks nailed on to me. Now the Labour Party have realized that his campaigning skills are a huge asset they'll do the following: let Jezza rally the faithful, spread optimism and sunshine and hover up the vital 'acne vote', while harder heads behind the scenes will formulate a Leftist programme for government. Theresa has lost the centrists and Remainers, and the ever-unreliable hard Right will peel off and they become disgruntled with Brexit and the world. Jezza holds all the cards.
A really fascinating Panorama special about John Redwood's leadership challenge in 1995 (including a cameo in the audience from Daniel Hannan).
With hindsight, the Conservative party and the country would probably been better off if he'd won and then gone down to a crushing defeat against Blair.
But the Tories DID suffer a crushing defeat against Blair
True, though it would likely have been even more crushing under Redwood. Not sure how that would have benefited the Tories. Certainly, some would have blamed Redwood and the Tory right but the Euro and council results from 1994 and 1995 were unprecedentedly awful for the Tories so that argument is difficult to sustain. The best that could be said would be that he'd have failed to engineer a recovery (or that such a recover was trivial) - Major did in fact oversee a mild recovery in year-to-year Tory fortunes in 1996 and 1997; it's just that these were overshadowed by the crushing defeats that came with them due to the lag of the electoral cycle.
In any case, would things have been much different other than starting 1997-2001 with even fewer MPs, against even more LD and Lab ones? Hague would probably have still become leader on a thin mandate, following the Tory left reacting against a Redwood leadership and hence being similarly discredited. His effectiveness would likely have been little different and his broad strategy largely the same for the same reasons: try to tack to the centre because ultimately that's where elections are won; get overwhelmed by Blair; retreat to the safe ground to preserve what was already there. The 2001 election might have produced more Tory gains as the targetting might have been less ambitious but the overall outcome would still likely have been a Lab majority of 150+. None of the main leadership candidates in 1997 had a majority of less than 5k and so would likely have survived an even heavier Tory defeat. Possibly Portillo's return might have been different and with the numbers so close, perhaps the 2001 election might have excluded IDS from the leadership but it's at best doubtful - and if he was excluded, it'd have been to either a Portillo who was by 2001 distrusted because of his abandoning the True Faith of the Thatcherites, or to Clarke, whose pro-Euro stance could have caused all sorts of problems.
Whatever, I can't see the benefits of Major losing in 1995 - which is ultimately the conclusion that Tory MPs came to. Whatever his faults, he was the only person who could bridge the faultlines of the day.
Give it time, Hyufd, give it time. The silly season is barely over.
What it shows is firstly there is still a big anti Corbyn vote regardless of what the Tories do and second the collapse of UKIP and the continued flatlining of the LDs means both main parties are likely to be near 40% for some time
My crystal ball is as cloudy as yours today, Hyufd, but on the whole I think I'd be feeling a bit more comfortable if I held a red party-membership card rather than a blue one.
The short-term boost to the economy from a sharp devaluation of the £ will be wearing off soon, inflation is creeping up, and as for the Brexit negotiations..... Could be a tough winter, but we'll see.
Politics seems very polarised to me right now. As both parties veer to their extremes, there are fewer positive reasons to vote for either one. There is a large anti-Corbyn sentiment built into the Tory vote and it's hard to see how that changes while he remains in charge; while May's embrace of the Brexit right will drive many in the centre to hold their noses and vote for Corbyn Labour. Again, it's hard to see how that changes. With Labour recovering in Scotland, there is an opportunity for the party to build its seat numbers next time around - but whether that takes them above the Tory number is open to question.
My view is much more simplistic, Southam.
It's all going to be about Brexit for years to come, and as the full implications become increasingly apparent, the Government will get the blame, fairly or not. Corbyn will have to be trying very hard to lose and on the evidence of the 2017 GE, he won't.
Evens is a cracking price.
Jezza holds all the cards.
Except the ability to control the date of the election.
A really fascinating Panorama special about John Redwood's leadership challenge in 1995 (including a cameo in the audience from Daniel Hannan).
With hindsight, the Conservative party and the country would probably been better off if he'd won and then gone down to a crushing defeat against Blair.
Alistair - The prejudice in your piece against the SNP is almost comic. Apparantly the SNP, despite a consistent 30 year record of being pro-European, really don't care about Brexit because of the "other priorities" to cause "maximum disruption".
In reality looking at Europe in its widest sense, European Union, Council of Europe, EFTA etc the SNP is now probably the best connected of all of the Westminster parties - certainly the one with the most European allies - the Labour leadership isn't trusted, the Tories have none and the Liberals don't count.
Best to leave your bias on the cutting room floor when you are writing an opinion piece. This silly nonsense will certainly inform how I regard other contributions from you which touch on Scotland.
Morning Nicola
Eck wants a quick word...
Alex Salmond has become the first major SNP figure to admit that an independent Scotland might have a future outside the EU.
Mr Salmond’s conversion is a remarkable turnaround. In January he publicly dismissed suggestions that the party might move away from full EU membership and embrace the Efta model instead.
His change of heart was being interpreted as a way of testing the water before the SNP conference without tying the party leadership to anything definite.
Alistair - The prejudice in your piece against the SNP is almost comic. Apparantly the SNP, despite a consistent 30 year record of being pro-European, really don't care about Brexit because of the "other priorities" to cause "maximum disruption".
In reality looking at Europe in its widest sense, European Union, Council of Europe, EFTA etc the SNP is now probably the best connected of all of the Westminster parties - certainly the one with the most European allies - the Labour leadership isn't trusted, the Tories have none and the Liberals don't count.
Best to leave your bias on the cutting room floor when you are writing an opinion piece. This silly nonsense will certainly inform how I regard other contributions from you which touch on Scotland.
SCREAMING EAGLES Alastair has a brilliant record on Scotland and the SNP.
He predicted the SNP Tsunami back in 2014, he also predicted the SNP would lose their majority last year at 8/1 when PB Nats were lobbing abuse at him for making such a forecast.
SCREAMING EAGLES
I don't recall lobbing abuse at anyone - not even at the Tory boys on PB. None of that excuses his petty bias against the Nats as displayed in his article. It does him no credit.
It was one of your fellow Nats that lobbing turnips at Alastair, not you.
Alistair - The prejudice in your piece against the SNP is almost comic. Apparantly the SNP, despite a consistent 30 year record of being pro-European, really don't care about Brexit because of the "other priorities" to cause "maximum disruption".
In reality looking at Europe in its widest sense, European Union, Council of Europe, EFTA etc the SNP is now probably the best connected of all of the Westminster parties - certainly the one with the most European allies - the Labour leadership isn't trusted, the Tories have none and the Liberals don't count.
Best to leave your bias on the cutting room floor when you are writing an opinion piece. This silly nonsense will certainly inform how I regard other contributions from you which touch on Scotland.
SCREAMING EAGLES Alastair has a brilliant record on Scotland and the SNP.
He predicted the SNP Tsunami back in 2014, he also predicted the SNP would lose their majority last year at 8/1 when PB Nats were lobbing abuse at him for making such a forecast.
SCREAMING EAGLES
I don't recall lobbing abuse at anyone - not even at the Tory boys on PB. None of that excuses his petty bias against the Nats as displayed in his article. It does him no credit.
It was one of your fellow Nats that lobbing turnips at Alastair, not you.
Fine Screaming - clarification accepted - but it still does not explain Alastair's silly bias against the SNP in this article today
Give it time, Hyufd, give it time. The silly season is barely over.
What it shows is firstly there is still a big anti Corbyn vote regardless of what the Tories do and second the collapse of UKIP and the continued flatlining of the LDs means both main parties are likely to be near 40% for some time
My crystal ball is as cloudy as yours today, Hyufd, but on the whole I think I'd be feeling a bit more comfortable if I held a red party-membership card rather than a blue one.
The short-term boost to the economy from a sharp devaluation of the £ will be wearing off soon, inflation is creeping up, and as for the Brexit negotiations..... Could be a tough winter, but we'll see.
Politics seems very polarised to me right now. As both parties veer to their extremes, there are fewer positive reasons to vote for either one. There is a large anti-Corbyn sentiment built into the Tory vote and it's hard to see how that changes while he remains in charge; while May's embrace of the Brexit right will drive many in the centre to hold their noses and vote for Corbyn Labour. Again, it's hard to see how that changes. With Labour recovering in Scotland, there is an opportunity for the party to build its seat numbers next time around - but whether that takes them above the Tory number is open to question.
My view is much more simplistic, Southam.
It's all going to be about Brexit for years to come, and as the full implications become increasingly apparent, the Government will get the blame, fairly or not. Corbyn will have to be trying very hard to lose and on the evidence of the 2017 GE, he won't.
Evens is a cracking price.
Yes, PM Jezza looks nailed on to me. Now the Labour Party have realized that his campaigning skills are a huge asset they'll do the following: let Jezza rally the faithful, spread optimism and sunshine and hover up the vital 'acne vote', while harder heads behind the scenes will formulate a Leftist programme for government. Theresa has lost the centrists and Remainers, and the ever-unreliable hard Right will peel off and they become disgruntled with Brexit and the world. Jezza holds all the cards.
"Optimism and sunshine"
That's all too true. Conservative Party politics is nothing but doom and gloom at the moment, and there is certainly room for Labour to spread some (however false) optimism about the future. It might be "things can only get better" all over again.
Give it time, Hyufd, give it time. The silly season is barely over.
What it shows is firstly there is still a big anti Corbyn vote regardless of what the Tories do and second the collapse of UKIP and the continued flatlining of the LDs means both main parties are likely to be near 40% for some time
My crystal ball is as cloudy as yours today, Hyufd, but on the whole I think I'd be feeling a bit more comfortable if I held a red party-membership card rather than a blue one.
The short-term boost to the economy from a sharp devaluation of the £ will be wearing off soon, inflation is creeping up, and as for the Brexit negotiations..... Could be a tough winter, but we'll see.
Politics seems very polarised to me right now. As both parties veer to their extremes, there are fewer positive reasons to vote for either one. There is a large anti-Corbyn sentiment built into the Tory vote and it's hard to see how that changes while he remains in charge; while May's embrace of the Brexit right will drive many in the centre to hold their noses and vote for Corbyn Labour. Again, it's hard to see how that changes. With Labour recovering in Scotland, there is an opportunity for the party to build its seat numbers next time around - but whether that takes them above the Tory number is open to question.
My view is much more simplistic, Southam.
It's all going to be about Brexit for years to come, and as the full implications become increasingly apparent, the Government will get the blame, fairly or not. Corbyn will have to be trying very hard to lose and on the evidence of the 2017 GE, he won't.
Evens is a cracking price.
Yes, PM Jezza looks nailed on to me. Now the Labour Party have realized that his campaigning skills are a huge asset they'll do the following: let Jezza rally the faithful, spread optimism and sunshine and hover up the vital 'acne vote', while harder heads behind the scenes will formulate a Leftist programme for government. Theresa has lost the centrists and Remainers, and the ever-unreliable hard Right will peel off and they become disgruntled with Brexit and the world. Jezza holds all the cards.
I don't disagree with the probability of your assessment... But it was only three months that we though Theresa was nailed on for a 100 seat majority.
Give it time, Hyufd, give it time. The silly season is barely over.
What it shows is firstly there is still a big anti Corbyn vote regardless of what the Tories do and second the collapse of UKIP and the continued flatlining of the LDs means both main parties are likely to be near 40% for some time
My crystal ball is as cloudy as yours today, Hyufd, but on the whole I think I'd be feeling a bit more comfortable if I held a red party-membership card rather than a blue one.
The short-term boost to the economy from a sharp devaluation of the £ will be wearing off soon, inflation is creeping up, and as for the Brexit negotiations..... Could be a tough winter, but we'll see.
Politics seems very polarised to me right now. As both parties veer to their extremes, there are fewer positive reasons to vote for either one. There is a large anti-Corbyn sentiment built into the Tory vote and it's hard to see how that changes while he remains in charge; while May's embrace of the Brexit right will drive many in the centre to hold their noses and vote for Corbyn Labour. Again, it's hard to see how that changes. With Labour recovering in Scotland, there is an opportunity for the party to build its seat numbers next time around - but whether that takes them above the Tory number is open to question.
My view is much more simplistic, Southam.
It's all going to be about Brexit for years to come, and as the full implications become increasingly apparent, the Government will get the blame, fairly or not. Corbyn will have to be trying very hard to lose and on the evidence of the 2017 GE, he won't.
Evens is a cracking price.
Yes, PM Jezza looks nailed on to me. Now the Labour Party have realized that his campaigning skills are a huge asset they'll do the following: let Jezza rally the faithful, spread optimism and sunshine and hover up the vital 'acne vote', while harder heads behind the scenes will formulate a Leftist programme for government. Theresa has lost the centrists and Remainers, and the ever-unreliable hard Right will peel off and they become disgruntled with Brexit and the world. Jezza holds all the cards.
A week is a long time in politics, five years is even longer. I doubt Corbyn will last five more years and I can't see the Tories going early. I'd think its less than evens Corbyn will even be around next election.
The David Lammy report is interesting but seems to lack coherence. But that might be the BBC report of it.
BAME kids are more likely to be in the prison system and they're more likely to come from one-parent families. Not sure that the Authorities can force couples to stay together.
They tend to get longer sentences because they're less likely to take the advice of their solicitors. Not sure that's the fault of the solicitors.
The report seems to blame racism for everything. That may be a factor, but association doesn't prove causation. Still this is 'social' science not real science, so what do I know?
BAME kids are more likely to be involved in crime than white kids anywhere they live in the world. Maybe it isn't all down to racism.
Yet no poll has the Tories anywhere near 35% or less, the Tory poll range is 38 to 42% currently though I agree Labour could overtake the SNP next time or at least ensure they only have a minority of seats
I agree up to a point. I think political opinion has been roughly frozen since the election - Labour got a modest extra surge from small-m momentum, but otherwise most people have put politics on hold while they enjoy their holidays and idly wait to see what emerges from the Brexit mess. I wouldn't describe it as a success for May or a failure for Corbyn, more a holding pattern. It is, after all, just 3 months since the election! (Feels more like a year, doesn't it?)
Normally one would expect some serious mid-term problems in a year or so. Brexit makes predictions based on past experience difficult to judge, though - people will see politics mainly through the prism of whether negotiators are being seen to be doing a good job for Britain. The Tories might be doing quite well, or really awfully. Who knows?
Agreed. We really don't have much of a compass these days. I'm sure "it's the economy stupid" has not lost its primacy deep down but it's not the be all and end all as it usually is.
It's about perceptions, if the Govt is seen to be buggering up Brexit they will suffer, the Opposition usually gets a free pass for opposing of course, and still mostly will, but they might not get 100% free ride given the nature of the beast. If things fail and the perception is it's the EU's bloody mindedness, well Juncker and Barnier might be the pantomime villains in the eyes of the electorate (they have potential!), and the Govt prospers.
Give it time, Hyufd, give it time. The silly season is barely over.
What it shows is firstly there is still a big anti Corbyn vote regardless of what the Tories do and second the collapse of UKIP and the continued flatlining of the LDs means both main parties are likely to be near 40% for some time
My crystal ball is as cloudy as yours today, Hyufd, but on the whole I think I'd be feeling a bit more comfortable if I held a red party-membership card rather than a blue one.
The short-term boost to the economy from a sharp devaluation of the £ will be wearing off soon, inflation is creeping up, and as for the Brexit negotiations..... Could be a tough winter, but we'll see.
Politics seems very polarised to me right now. As both parties veer to their extremes, there are fewer positive reasons to vote for either one. There is a large anti-Corbyn sentiment built into the Tory vote and it's hard to see how that changes while he remains in charge; while May's embrace of the Brexit right will drive many in the centre to hold their noses and vote for Corbyn Labour. Again, it's hard to see how that changes. With Labour recovering in Scotland, there is an opportunity for the party to build its seat numbers next time around - but whether that takes them above the Tory number is open to question.
My view is much more simplistic, Southam.
It's all going to be about Brexit for years to come, and as the full implications become increasingly apparent, the Government will get the blame, fairly or not. Corbyn will have to be trying very hard to lose and on the evidence of the 2017 GE, he won't.
Evens is a cracking price.
Yes, PM Jezza looks nailed on to me. Now the Labour Party have realized that his campaigning skills are a huge asset they'll do the following: let Jezza rally the faithful, spread optimism and sunshine and hover up the vital 'acne vote', while harder heads behind the scenes will formulate a Leftist programme for government. Theresa has lost the centrists and Remainers, and the ever-unreliable hard Right will peel off and they become disgruntled with Brexit and the world. Jezza holds all the cards.
Nah. People will hold their nose and vote Tory to keep the nutter out.
The David Lammy report is interesting but seems to lack coherence. But that might be the BBC report of it.
BAME kids are more likely to be in the prison system and they're more likely to come from one-parent families. Not sure that the Authorities can force couples to stay together.
They tend to get longer sentences because they're less likely to take the advice of their solicitors. Not sure that's the fault of the solicitors.
The report seems to blame racism for everything. That may be a factor, but association doesn't prove causation. Still this is 'social' science not real science, so what do I know?
BAME kids are more likely to be involved in crime than white kids anywhere they live in the world. Maybe it isn't all down to racism.
Not true, especially with the Minority element. There are many minority ethnicities that are less likely to be involved in crime across the world - in the UK for instance the Chinese minority is less likely to be involved in crime than whites.
Alistair - The prejudice in your piece against the SNP is almost comic. Apparantly the SNP, despite a consistent 30 year record of being pro-European, really don't care about Brexit because of the "other priorities" to cause "maximum disruption".
In reality looking at Europe in its widest sense, European Union, Council of Europe, EFTA etc the SNP is now probably the best connected of all of the Westminster parties - certainly the one with the most European allies - the Labour leadership isn't trusted, the Tories have none and the Liberals don't count.
Best to leave your bias on the cutting room floor when you are writing an opinion piece. This silly nonsense will certainly inform how I regard other contributions from you which touch on Scotland.
Morning Nicola
Eck wants a quick word...
Alex Salmond has become the first major SNP figure to admit that an independent Scotland might have a future outside the EU.
Mr Salmond’s conversion is a remarkable turnaround. In January he publicly dismissed suggestions that the party might move away from full EU membership and embrace the Efta model instead.
His change of heart was being interpreted as a way of testing the water before the SNP conference without tying the party leadership to anything definite.
You are not suggesting that any interpretation in the "Tartan Times" should be treated seriously. This is a rag which a few weeks back had to issue a grovelling apology to Salmond - probably the most literate Scottish politician since Donald Dewar- for an article claiming he had never read a book!
I was at the Business for Scotland dinner last night (as was Nicola Sturgeon) and heard Salmond deliver a brilliant speech of Scotland and EFTA pointing out,inter alia,that the Scottish Government paper "Scotland's European Future" has suggested this last December as a way out for Scotland of being force fed full English Brexit.
The David Lammy report is interesting but seems to lack coherence. But that might be the BBC report of it.
BAME kids are more likely to be in the prison system and they're more likely to come from one-parent families. Not sure that the Authorities can force couples to stay together.
They tend to get longer sentences because they're less likely to take the advice of their solicitors. Not sure that's the fault of the solicitors.
The report seems to blame racism for everything. That may be a factor, but association doesn't prove causation. Still this is 'social' science not real science, so what do I know?
BAME kids are more likely to be involved in crime than white kids anywhere they live in the world. Maybe it isn't all down to racism.
Not true, especially with the Minority element. There are many minority ethnicities that are less likely to be involved in crime across the world - in the UK for instance the Chinese minority is less likely to be involved in crime than whites.
Oh yeah you're right. I thought BAME stood for Black and Middle Eastern, but I checked and it is Black and Minority Ethnic.
So yes Chinese kids often do well and better than white kids no question. Black kids though very rarely if ever do.
The David Lammy report is interesting but seems to lack coherence. But that might be the BBC report of it.
BAME kids are more likely to be in the prison system and they're more likely to come from one-parent families. Not sure that the Authorities can force couples to stay together.
They tend to get longer sentences because they're less likely to take the advice of their solicitors. Not sure that's the fault of the solicitors.
The report seems to blame racism for everything. That may be a factor, but association doesn't prove causation. Still this is 'social' science not real science, so what do I know?
BAME kids are more likely to be involved in crime than white kids anywhere they live in the world. Maybe it isn't all down to racism.
Not true, especially with the Minority element. There are many minority ethnicities that are less likely to be involved in crime across the world - in the UK for instance the Chinese minority is less likely to be involved in crime than whites.
Oh yeah you're right. I thought BAME stood for Black and Middle Eastern, but I checked and it is Black and Minority Ethnic.
So yes Chinese kids often do well and better than white kids no question. Black kids though very rarely if ever do.
Culture and socioeconomic background is far more important than crude binary ethnic divisions but too politically unfashionable.
The David Lammy report is interesting but seems to lack coherence. But that might be the BBC report of it.
BAME kids are more likely to be in the prison system and they're more likely to come from one-parent families. Not sure that the Authorities can force couples to stay together.
They tend to get longer sentences because they're less likely to take the advice of their solicitors. Not sure that's the fault of the solicitors.
The report seems to blame racism for everything. That may be a factor, but association doesn't prove causation. Still this is 'social' science not real science, so what do I know?
BAME kids are more likely to be involved in crime than white kids anywhere they live in the world. Maybe it isn't all down to racism.
Not true, especially with the Minority element. There are many minority ethnicities that are less likely to be involved in crime across the world - in the UK for instance the Chinese minority is less likely to be involved in crime than whites.
Oh yeah you're right. I thought BAME stood for Black and Middle Eastern, but I checked and it is Black and Minority Ethnic.
Corbyn has shown an ability to compromise with reality, even when it clashes with his long-held personal views, most recently with Labour's move to a clear "soft Brexit" line. The government's positions, on the other hand, become more and more unreal.
Corbyn's Labour Party is now much more closely aligned with the view of business and industry than May's Tories - such is the topsy-turvy world that Cameron's referendum has created!
I don't think Martin Pipe made many friends in the racing community when he started out, and arguably throughout his career, but his methods were certainly effective.
Martin Pipe wrote a foreword to the Dorothy Paget book in which he described his own methods: Back in Dorothy’s racing days, the modern techniques I was able to introduce to the sport in the 1980s with such spectacular success were not available. There were no blood tests, tracheal washes, weighing machines, and I am sure she would have appreciated my scientific approach to training. My methods meant I was able to detect potential problems with the horses before they ran, rather than after they had disappointed on the racecourse, while interval training meant that the horses were fitter than ever before.
Sharpe, Graham; Colley, Declan. Dorothy Paget: The Eccentric Queen of the Sport of Kings
It has also been reported that Pipe employed a private handicapper to place horses where they could win. Pipe was a true pioneer but given his success at the bottom, his record in Graded and championship races was disappointing. His son, David, has far fewer winners but does about as well at the top level.
I think his methods as you - and he - say were revolutionary; no one had thought of interval training before - the most sophisticated it got was the swimming pool at Nicky Henderson's.
I think again as you say he hoovered up the lower class races but for the top quality races and animals the methods were less effective. You could beat (in several senses) an ordinary horse into winning low grade races (as indeed he won many such, and many in quick succession) but at the top end such methods fall down.
The David Lammy report is interesting but seems to lack coherence. But that might be the BBC report of it.
BAME kids are more likely to be in the prison system and they're more likely to come from one-parent families. Not sure that the Authorities can force couples to stay together.
They tend to get longer sentences because they're less likely to take the advice of their solicitors. Not sure that's the fault of the solicitors.
The report seems to blame racism for everything. That may be a factor, but association doesn't prove causation. Still this is 'social' science not real science, so what do I know?
BAME kids are more likely to be involved in crime than white kids anywhere they live in the world. Maybe it isn't all down to racism.
Not true, especially with the Minority element. There are many minority ethnicities that are less likely to be involved in crime across the world - in the UK for instance the Chinese minority is less likely to be involved in crime than whites.
Oh yeah you're right. I thought BAME stood for Black and Middle Eastern, but I checked and it is Black and Minority Ethnic.
So yes Chinese kids often do well and better than white kids no question. Black kids though very rarely if ever do.
Culture and socioeconomic background is far more important than crude binary ethnic divisions but too politically unfashionable.
Can you expand on this? I'm not really sure what you mean here.
You think it will all be done and dusted by March 2019?
Actual exit yes. There will be a transition probably but come March 2019 we're out.
Legally out, but still chained to the negotiating table trying to hammer out a long term deal.
And that's the best case scenario.
Yes it's going to be a pain. But we regain sovereignty to make our own decisions, particularly of our borders and we're not going to be gradually subsumed into a European superstate.
Labour and Labour MPs in Leave areas have to be very careful indeed how they vote if they want to keep their seats. In the end this is the crucial factor.
The David Lammy report is interesting but seems to lack coherence. But that might be the BBC report of it.
BAME kids are more likely to be in the prison system and they're more likely to come from one-parent families. Not sure that the Authorities can force couples to stay together.
They tend to get longer sentences because they're less likely to take the advice of their solicitors. Not sure that's the fault of the solicitors.
The report seems to blame racism for everything. That may be a factor, but association doesn't prove causation. Still this is 'social' science not real science, so what do I know?
BAME kids are more likely to be involved in crime than white kids anywhere they live in the world. Maybe it isn't all down to racism.
Not true, especially with the Minority element. There are many minority ethnicities that are less likely to be involved in crime across the world - in the UK for instance the Chinese minority is less likely to be involved in crime than whites.
Oh yeah you're right. I thought BAME stood for Black and Middle Eastern, but I checked and it is Black and Minority Ethnic.
So yes Chinese kids often do well and better than white kids no question. Black kids though very rarely if ever do.
Culture and socioeconomic background is far more important than crude binary ethnic divisions but too politically unfashionable.
Having skim-read the Lammy Report, it seems pretty nuanced to me.
Despite what some headlines imply, it doesn't blame everything on racism. For example, it concludes that CPS decisions to prosecute are "broadly proportionate", that juries don't discriminate on the basis of race, and that in the main, sentencing decisions don't very markedly across ethnic groups on a like for like basis (except in drugs cases). It points out that a major reason for ethnic minority defendants getting longer sentences is due to their failure to plead guilty at an early stage.
It does point, correctly, to a lack of trust between some ethnic minority groups, and the Criminal Justice System. I'm not at all sure that simply getting more judges and magistrates from ethnic minority backgrounds would erode that distrust, though. I don't think black and Asian professional people are likely to be more trusted than white professional people who administer justice.
You think it will all be done and dusted by March 2019?
Actual exit yes. There will be a transition probably but come March 2019 we're out.
Legally out, but still chained to the negotiating table trying to hammer out a long term deal.
And that's the best case scenario.
Yes it's going to be a pain. But we regain sovereignty to make our own decisions, particularly of our borders and we're not going to be gradually subsumed into a European superstate.
Who is 'we'? The most concrete border question thrown up by Brexit doesn't appear to be one the UK government has much control over.
Give it time, Hyufd, give it time. The silly season is barely over.
What it shows is firstly there is still a big anti Corbyn vote regardless of what the Tories do and second the collapse of UKIP and the continued flatlining of the LDs means both main parties are likely to be near 40% for some time
My crystal ball is as cloudy as yours today, Hyufd, but on the whole I think I'd be feeling a bit more comfortable if I held a red party-membership card rather than a blue one.
The short-term boost to the economy from a sharp devaluation of the £ will be wearing off soon, inflation is creeping up, and as for the Brexit negotiations..... Could be a tough winter, but we'll see.
Politics seems very polarised to me right now. As both parties veer to their extremes, there are fewer positive reasons to vote for either one. There is a large anti-Corbyn sentiment built into the Tory vote and it's hard to see how that changes while he remains in charge; while May's embrace of the Brexit right will drive many in the centre to hold their noses and vote for Corbyn Labour. Again, it's hard to see how that changes. With Labour recovering in Scotland, there is an opportunity for the party to build its seat numbers next time around - but whether that takes them above the Tory number is open to question.
My view is much more simplistic, Southam.
It's all going to be about Brexit for years to come, and as the full implications become increasingly apparent, the Government will get the blame, fairly or not. Corbyn will have to be trying very hard to lose and on the evidence of the 2017 GE, he won't.
Evens is a cracking price.
Yes, PM Jezza looks nailed on to me. Now the Labour Party have realized that his campaigning skills are a huge asset they'll do the following: let Jezza rally the faithful, spread optimism and sunshine and hover up the vital 'acne vote', while harder heads behind the scenes will formulate a Leftist programme for government. Theresa has lost the centrists and Remainers, and the ever-unreliable hard Right will peel off and they become disgruntled with Brexit and the world. Jezza holds all the cards.
"Optimism and sunshine"
That's all too true. Conservative Party politics is nothing but doom and gloom at the moment, and there is certainly room for Labour to spread some (however false) optimism about the future. It might be "things can only get better" all over again.
Labour and Labour MPs in Leave areas have to be very careful indeed how they vote if they want to keep their seats. In the end this is the crucial factor.
You think it will all be done and dusted by March 2019?
Actual exit yes. There will be a transition probably but come March 2019 we're out.
Legally out, but still chained to the negotiating table trying to hammer out a long term deal.
And that's the best case scenario.
Yes it's going to be a pain. But we regain sovereignty to make our own decisions, particularly of our borders and we're not going to be gradually subsumed into a European superstate.
Who is 'we'? The most concrete border question thrown up by Brexit doesn't appear to be one the UK government has much control over.
"we" is the British people obviously.
And we'll no longer be subjected to this sort of thing which is clearly against the wishes of the population:
Give it time, Hyufd, give it time. The silly season is barely over.
What it shows is firstly there is still a big anti Corbyn vote regardless of what the Tories do and second the collapse of UKIP and the continued flatlining of the LDs means both main parties are likely to be near 40% for some time
My crystal ball is as cloudy as yours today, Hyufd, but on the whole I think I'd be feeling a bit more comfortable if I held a red party-membership card rather than a blue one.
The short-term boost to the economy from a sharp devaluation of the £ will be wearing off soon, inflation is creeping up, and as for the Brexit negotiations..... Could be a tough winter, but we'll see.
Politics seems very polarised to me right now. As both parties veer to their extremes, there are fewer positive reasons to vote for either one. There is a large anti-Corbyn sentiment built into the Tory vote and it's hard to see how that changes while he remains in charge; while May's embrace of the Brexit right will drive many in the centre to hold their noses and vote for Corbyn Labour. Again, it's hard to see how that changes. With Labour recovering in Scotland, there is an opportunity for the party to build its seat numbers next time around - but whether that takes them above the Tory number is open to question.
My view is much more simplistic, Southam.
It's all going to be about Brexit for years to come, and as the full implications become increasingly apparent, the Government will get the blame, fairly or not. Corbyn will have to be trying very hard to lose and on the evidence of the 2017 GE, he won't.
Evens is a cracking price.
Yes, PM Jezza looks nailed on to me. Now the Labour Party have realized that his campaigning skills are a huge asset they'll do the following: let Jezza rally the faithful, spread optimism and sunshine and hover up the vital 'acne vote', while harder heads behind the scenes will formulate a Leftist programme for government. Theresa has lost the centrists and Remainers, and the ever-unreliable hard Right will peel off and they become disgruntled with Brexit and the world. Jezza holds all the cards.
I don't disagree with the probability of your assessment... But it was only three months that we though Theresa was nailed on for a 100 seat majority.
We live in strange times...
Exactly three months ago, Theresa still had her majority!
BAME kids are more likely to be involved in crime than white kids anywhere they live in the world. Maybe it isn't all down to racism.
Not true, especially with the Minority element. There are many minority ethnicities that are less likely to be involved in crime across the world - in the UK for instance the Chinese minority is less likely to be involved in crime than whites.
Oh yeah you're right. I thought BAME stood for Black and Middle Eastern, but I checked and it is Black and Minority Ethnic.
So yes Chinese kids often do well and better than white kids no question. Black kids though very rarely if ever do.
Culture and socioeconomic background is far more important than crude binary ethnic divisions but too politically unfashionable.
Can you expand on this? I'm not really sure what you mean here.
Firstly, one reason for the high BAME figure in prison is that the BAME is disproportionately skewed to lower social groups (and, notably, those ethnic minorities which have larger middle class elements have similarly smaller representation in prison): this is more a class question than it is a race one, though there is an element of race to it (see below).
And secondly, and relatedly, it's about attitude and social culture of the groups that the individuals who end up in prison belong to: attitude to the law, to authority, to education, to family and so on. There was an article on R4 about it this morning and one example it gave was that black teenagers hold notably less trust in the police and the judicial system than white teenagers of a similar background, leading them to tend not to engage with the system, not plead guilty and chalk up more procedural factors that increase their sentence. Where does that *greater* lack of trust come from. Experience may be a part of it - the police are not necessarily fully colour-blind yet - but my guess, and it is only a guess, is that it's more down to cultural attitudes which are reinforced within communities and which have a habit of producing feedback effects.
Indian woman divorce husband because dem no get toilet
Serena Williams don born her first pickin
...
Fascinating language.
Past and future look to be indicated by auxiliaries don and go, not sure there's a passive as such as it seems to be indicated by dey.
You're right though it's fascinating and I'd love to know how it developed. Is it "English" or something so different it's another language that just has certain mutual intelligibility with English. Is this vaguely like Spanish sounds to the Portuguese or Danes to Swedes?
I think the BBC Pidgin is meant to cover various pidgins spoken across West Africa, descended from 17th-18th century Guinea Coast Creole English from the time of the slave trade, so may be a little "watered down" (perhaps closer to standard English) for greater intelligibility across the region. Even Nigerian pidgin has various different dialects, and the Krio (think "creole") language in Sierra Leone is almost entirely incomprehensible to a native English speaker if you look up some clips of it on youtube or similar. It's interesting that pidgin is closely related to Caribbean creole (because of the slave trade) but also retains some remnants of Portuguese (whose links to the region came before its domination by the British).
For press conference, Princess Mako say di first thing wey make am fall for Kei Komuro, na di way im dey smile wey be like sun.
''Since I be pickin, na di time I don know say I no go get royal title when I marry," na wetin she talk.
''While I don work to help di Emperor and I do di work wey person from royal family suppose do well-well, e dey sweet me to do wetin l want do with my own life.''
Because obviously she didn't actually say those words. But then, and we forget this all too often, she didn't say the words that appeared in the standard English translation of the press conference either.
You think it will all be done and dusted by March 2019?
Actual exit yes. There will be a transition probably but come March 2019 we're out.
Legally out, but still chained to the negotiating table trying to hammer out a long term deal.
And that's the best case scenario.
Yes it's going to be a pain. But we regain sovereignty to make our own decisions, particularly of our borders and we're not going to be gradually subsumed into a European superstate.
Who is 'we'? The most concrete border question thrown up by Brexit doesn't appear to be one the UK government has much control over.
"we" is the British people obviously.
And we'll no longer be subjected to this sort of thing which is clearly against the wishes of the population:
No longer subjected to decisions of the British Prime Minister? If the point of Brexit is to take away executive power, this is a funny way to go about doing it.
You skirted around the question of Northern Ireland. What 'control' do 'we' gain?
Labour and Labour MPs in Leave areas have to be very careful indeed how they vote if they want to keep their seats. In the end this is the crucial factor.
Same goes for Tories in Remain areas....
Indeed. And data shown here recently suggests that Labour voters are less exercised about Brexit issues than Tory voters. The Tories are in the process of losing committed Remain voters and also soft Brexit voters.
BAME kids are more likely to be involved in crime than white kids anywhere they live in the world. Maybe it isn't all down to racism.
Not true, especially with the Minority element. There are many minority ethnicities that are less likely to be involved in crime across the world - in the UK for instance the Chinese minority is less likely to be involved in crime than whites.
Oh yeah you're right. I thought BAME stood for Black and Middle Eastern, but I checked and it is Black and Minority Ethnic.
So yes Chinese kids often do well and better than white kids no question. Black kids though very rarely if ever do.
Culture and socioeconomic background is far more important than crude binary ethnic divisions but too politically unfashionable.
Can you expand on this? I'm not really sure what you mean here.
Firstly, one reason for the high BAME figure in prison is that the BAME is disproportionately skewed to lower social groups (and, notably, those ethnic minorities which have larger middle class elements have similarly smaller representation in prison): this is more a class question than it is a race one, though there is an element of race to it (see below).
And secondly, and relatedly, it's about attitude and social culture of the groups that the individuals who end up in prison belong to: attitude to the law, to authority, to education, to family and so on. There was an article on R4 about it this morning and one example it gave was that black teenagers hold notably less trust in the police and the judicial system than white teenagers of a similar background, leading them to tend not to engage with the system, not plead guilty and chalk up more procedural factors that increase their sentence. Where does that *greater* lack of trust come from. Experience may be a part of it - the police are not necessarily fully colour-blind yet - but my guess, and it is only a guess, is that it's more down to cultural attitudes which are reinforced within communities and which have a habit of producing feedback effects.
There's also the question of foreign nationals. On a like for like basis, they are much more likely to get prison sentences than British nationals, because of the risk they'd abscond, if given a non-custodial sentence.
Comments
Lab, meanwhile, need to create enough confusion so as to appeal to Brexiters and Remainers, which I think they are sort of doing (whether by luck or design...).
Meanwhile, sadly, the only confusion the Cons are creating is between hard and harder Brexit with nary a glance towards the 48%.
Think there might be fewer refuseniks for this and future votes than Article 50. Be surprise if any Tory (excepting Clarke) or DUPer votes against the 2nd reading. And no more than 5 for the 3rd reading. Given 5-10 Labour MPs will join the govt vote and 15 or so probably abstain, it'll be a clear majority.
Just a bad day at the office. O'Brien didn't sack him. Says everything.
There is certainly a tendency in politics to meet utterly unreasonable proposals half way, and think that you've achieved something. In this case the government's majority is possibly small enough that the Dealers alone won't be able to deliver what they want.
I guess much might depend on the attitude of the Labour leavers.
The worst ride I ever saw was Fallon's on BOSRA SHAM in the 1997 Eclipse. I was also at Lingfield on the day of the BALLINGER RIDGE incident in 2004. Fallon was lucky to get out of the track alive.
This is the way it's going to get done. @SouthamObserver et al will huff and puff while, behind the scenes sausages will be made in the traditional manner
In decades of following National Hunt, I have rarely felt moved to criticise a jockey. Instead, the more I got to know the sport the more impressed I became at theit skill and horsemanship. It was the reverse with the AW. I seethe, on a regular basis. Obviously it has more than its share of Non-Triers (look at the prize money....can you blame them?) and you have to allow for that but even so the number of times first prize goes to a horse that was palpably not the best is quite astonishing. I'm not talking about B Ridge type fiascos here. I have in mind sheer misjudgement, and not always by the the young or journeymen jocks.
Jamie Spencer is my pet hate. Loves to come with a dash at the finish. Looks great, and praise is heaped upon him when it works, but would the horse not have won just as easy under a more normal ride? And when he just fails to get up, nobody seems to mention it. Wonder why?
Having said all that, I do find the AW lucrative - small fields, small pool of horses and trainers, standard surface, highly visible form.
Sunil's recent foray into Scotland (Glasgow/Edinburgh/Loch Lomond/Queensferry/Ayr) has secretly converted him into something of a Remainer, despite his continued public insistence on "52% Leave, 48% Remain".
Top stories:
Woman wan troway poo-poo, come trap for window
Indian woman divorce husband because dem no get toilet
Serena Williams don born her first pickin
Hurricane Irma don affect 1.2m people - Red Cross
Italy dey investigate how malaria kill girl
Kenya: Police don arrest 'car thieves' wey naked for street
Why China dey chop African Donkey
North Korea: Nine West African countries fit suffer if...
Japan: Princess wan marry ordinary man
Ghana import 30 million condoms but dem no use am
Togo: Why people no want Faure Gnassingbé
Ghana: Pickins don get gambling problem
New Lassa fever drug don land! But...
Nigeria: More strike dey come
Japan: 'North Korea no get bright future'
2018 World Cup: South Africa and Senegal go replay
Transfer window go dey close before new season
US Open 2017: Fresh faces for di finals
Fascinating language.
Alistair - The prejudice in your piece against the SNP is almost comic. Apparantly the SNP, despite a consistent 30 year record of being pro-European, really don't care about Brexit because of the "other priorities" to cause "maximum disruption".
In reality looking at Europe in its widest sense, European Union, Council of Europe, EFTA etc the SNP is now probably the best connected of all of the Westminster parties - certainly the one with the most European allies - the Labour leadership isn't trusted, the Tories have none and the Liberals don't count.
Best to leave your bias on the cutting room floor when you are writing an opinion piece. This silly nonsense will certainly inform how I regard other contributions from you which touch on Scotland.
It's all going to be about Brexit for years to come, and as the full implications become increasingly apparent, the Government will get the blame, fairly or not. Corbyn will have to be trying very hard to lose and on the evidence of the 2017 GE, he won't.
Evens is a cracking price.
He predicted the SNP Tsunami back in 2014, he also predicted the SNP would lose their majority last year at 8/1 when PB Nats were lobbing abuse at him for making such a forecast.
He also predicted Salmond and Robertson would lose their seats this year, when you said they wouldn't.
As a partisan observer who is also in an idiosyncratic way patriotic (I don't care about the national anthem and such, but I want our country to thrive and be happy in an improving wider world), I'm a bit torn - I would like things to go really well, and the Government to get the blame for it going badly
With hindsight, the Conservative party and the country would probably been better off if he'd won and then gone down to a crushing defeat against Blair.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37tS9ZYG7zU
Coalition (2010-15)
Cameron Majority (2015-16)
May Majority (2016-17)
May Minority (2017-)
It may seem we've had a lot of changes in Government even though we haven't. The ability of governing parties to re-invent themselves in Government is not to be underestimated. I could easily envisage a post-2019 re-launch of the Conservative Party in Government with a new leader and much-changed Cabinet trying to convince people it's a shiny new Government which needs our support.
It will also try to distance itself from the failings of the previous configurations and claim it has no record to defend.
I would imagine Southwell now is similar - the only Fibresand surface so if your horse likes it they can run consistently well there. My other observation is form doesn't or didn't always transfer across the Polytrack venues so horses who ran well at Chelmsford didn't always produce the same level of form at LIngfield or Kempton - not sure if that is still the case.
Wolverhampton is Tapeta now, isn't it so that's another surface to consider.
Mind you, the converse delusion seems to exist on the continent. Unfortunately, that makes it worse, not better.
https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/905879953933262848
Seems to me you are a bit over cheery about Labour prospects in Scotland on the basis of the local by election results.
You have to remember these are comparisons are with May this year which was Labour's worst results for a century at knocking on 20 per cent. In the three by elections since the Election their vote has been up by 4,2 and 10 per cent respectively which is an average of 5 per cent or just a bit less than the Corbyn "surge" into third place in the General Election.
The SNP vote has been up 6 and then down 8 and 8 or down an average of 3 per cent which is quite a bit less than their fall from grace during the General Election campaign.
The Tories are up 7 and then down 2 in each of yesterday's contests which is up 1 per cent or on average a bit less that their increase from locals to Generals.
This analysis would be supported by the detail of Labour's best result in Cardonald. Yes it is much better than this years locals but much worse than 2012, which was an election where the SNP were narrowly ahead of Labour across Scotland.
My conclusion would be that not much had changed since the General Election. The SNP are probably ahead across the country, Labour have probably improved modestly and the Tories may be starting on a downward incline.
I would be surprised if the first real Scottish opinion poll post election doesn't confirm something of the sort ie SNP in the lead, Labour into second and Tories now in third.
Sunil's recent foray into Scotland (Glasgow/Edinburgh/Loch Lomond/Queensferry/Ayr) has secretly converted him into something of a Remainer, despite his continued public insistence on "52% Leave, 48% Remain".
Redwood becomes PM
Blair wins crushing victory
Conservatives abandon experiment with extreme Euroscepticism and revert to a mainstream credible leader
The whole politics of the Blair era would have been fundamentally different. He would have had some serious opposition, and the undercurrents that led to the disaster of Brexit would never have happened.
Briefly, because I have to go now....
You don't surprise me. Can think of many reasons why that should be so.
Form does NOT xfer across the tracks.
Wolverhampton is a great track - very fair test of a horse and form is reliable.
Lingfield is notoriously difficult to ride. Chelmsford is a sluggish surface and the short home straight makes it difficult for horses to win from the back.
Newcastle is strange, particularly the straight mile. I think jockeys haven't figured out how to ride it yet. I certainly haven't figured out how to bet there!
Oh, and for today, since you ask (not sure if prices still available....)
All at Newcastle (so light stakes)
2.15 Mcvicar at 12/1
2.50 Isstoora at 7/2
5.10 Fikhaar at 7/1
Atb
P
Back in Dorothy’s racing days, the modern techniques I was able to introduce to the sport in the 1980s with such spectacular success were not available. There were no blood tests, tracheal washes, weighing machines, and I am sure she would have appreciated my scientific approach to training. My methods meant I was able to detect potential problems with the horses before they ran, rather than after they had disappointed on the racecourse, while interval training meant that the horses were fitter than ever before.
Sharpe, Graham; Colley, Declan. Dorothy Paget: The Eccentric Queen of the Sport of Kings
It has also been reported that Pipe employed a private handicapper to place horses where they could win. Pipe was a true pioneer but given his success at the bottom, his record in Graded and championship races was disappointing. His son, David, has far fewer winners but does about as well at the top level.
It's becoming clear that the UK has three options
1) To crash out of the EU without a deal;
2) To accept a transitional period whose length and terms will be dictated entirely by the EU;
3) To withdraw article 50 and stay in.
The chances of 3 are remote, so that leaves 1 and 2.
The humiliation (not to mention chaos in the case of option 1) inherent in both of these options will undoubtedly lead to the collapse of the government. And this will result in an election which, in all probability, will propel Corbyn into No 10.
Alastair Meeks/
Alistair - The prejudice in your piece against the SNP is almost comic. Apparantly the SNP, despite a consistent 30 year record of being pro-European, really don't care about Brexit because of the "other priorities" to cause "maximum disruption".
In reality looking at Europe in its widest sense, European Union, Council of Europe, EFTA etc the SNP is now probably the best connected of all of the Westminster parties - certainly the one with the most European allies - the Labour leadership isn't trusted, the Tories have none and the Liberals don't count.
Best to leave your bias on the cutting room floor when you are writing an opinion piece. This silly nonsense will certainly inform how I regard other contributions from you which touch on Scotland.
SCREAMING EAGLES
Alastair has a brilliant record on Scotland and the SNP.
He predicted the SNP Tsunami back in 2014, he also predicted the SNP would lose their majority last year at 8/1 when PB Nats were lobbing abuse at him for making such a forecast.
SCREAMING EAGLES
I don't recall lobbing abuse at anyone - not even at the Tory boys on PB. None of that excuses his petty bias against the Nats as displayed in his article. It does him no credit.
ERG = a group of MPs for carrying-on an undertaking of great advantage but nobody to know who they are.
"Just" 18 more months before Brexit will mean Brexit.
Can't come soon enough.
"You are crap and without the EU you are useless" - a horrible message which failed.
You're right though it's fascinating and I'd love to know how it developed. Is it "English" or something so different it's another language that just has certain mutual intelligibility with English. Is this vaguely like Spanish sounds to the Portuguese or Danes to Swedes?
In the deep and dark recesses of my memory, I seem to recall that Red Bull have (had?) a veto on other teams getting Renault engines, and that they were remarkably unkeen for McLaren to get them. Is that memory correct, and have things changed in the last couple of years (perhaps following the Red Bull / Renault acrimony)?
That's not to say that they are right on the principle, but I think that is their motivation.
In any case, would things have been much different other than starting 1997-2001 with even fewer MPs, against even more LD and Lab ones? Hague would probably have still become leader on a thin mandate, following the Tory left reacting against a Redwood leadership and hence being similarly discredited. His effectiveness would likely have been little different and his broad strategy largely the same for the same reasons: try to tack to the centre because ultimately that's where elections are won; get overwhelmed by Blair; retreat to the safe ground to preserve what was already there. The 2001 election might have produced more Tory gains as the targetting might have been less ambitious but the overall outcome would still likely have been a Lab majority of 150+. None of the main leadership candidates in 1997 had a majority of less than 5k and so would likely have survived an even heavier Tory defeat. Possibly Portillo's return might have been different and with the numbers so close, perhaps the 2001 election might have excluded IDS from the leadership but it's at best doubtful - and if he was excluded, it'd have been to either a Portillo who was by 2001 distrusted because of his abandoning the True Faith of the Thatcherites, or to Clarke, whose pro-Euro stance could have caused all sorts of problems.
Whatever, I can't see the benefits of Major losing in 1995 - which is ultimately the conclusion that Tory MPs came to. Whatever his faults, he was the only person who could bridge the faultlines of the day.
Eck wants a quick word...
Alex Salmond has become the first major SNP figure to admit that an independent Scotland might have a future outside the EU.
Mr Salmond’s conversion is a remarkable turnaround. In January he publicly dismissed suggestions that the party might move away from full EU membership and embrace the Efta model instead.
His change of heart was being interpreted as a way of testing the water before the SNP conference without tying the party leadership to anything definite.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scotland-can-use-norway-model-says-salmond-pl739hlmc
Alastair Meeks/
Alistair - The prejudice in your piece against the SNP is almost comic. Apparantly the SNP, despite a consistent 30 year record of being pro-European, really don't care about Brexit because of the "other priorities" to cause "maximum disruption".
In reality looking at Europe in its widest sense, European Union, Council of Europe, EFTA etc the SNP is now probably the best connected of all of the Westminster parties - certainly the one with the most European allies - the Labour leadership isn't trusted, the Tories have none and the Liberals don't count.
Best to leave your bias on the cutting room floor when you are writing an opinion piece. This silly nonsense will certainly inform how I regard other contributions from you which touch on Scotland.
SCREAMING EAGLES
Alastair has a brilliant record on Scotland and the SNP.
He predicted the SNP Tsunami back in 2014, he also predicted the SNP would lose their majority last year at 8/1 when PB Nats were lobbing abuse at him for making such a forecast.
SCREAMING EAGLES
I don't recall lobbing abuse at anyone - not even at the Tory boys on PB. None of that excuses his petty bias against the Nats as displayed in his article. It does him no credit.
It was one of your fellow Nats that lobbing turnips at Alastair, not you. Fine Screaming - clarification accepted - but it still does not explain Alastair's silly bias against the SNP in this article today
That's all too true. Conservative Party politics is nothing but doom and gloom at the moment, and there is certainly room for Labour to spread some (however false) optimism about the future. It might be "things can only get better" all over again.
We live in strange times...
It's about perceptions, if the Govt is seen to be buggering up Brexit they will suffer, the Opposition usually gets a free pass for opposing of course, and still mostly will, but they might not get 100% free ride given the nature of the beast. If things fail and the perception is it's the EU's bloody mindedness, well Juncker and Barnier might be the pantomime villains in the eyes of the electorate (they have potential!), and the Govt prospers.
Mr. Jessop, yes, they do have a veto, but have also stated they don't have a problem with McLaren having a Renault engine.
And that's the best case scenario.
I was at the Business for Scotland dinner last night (as was Nicola Sturgeon) and heard Salmond deliver a brilliant speech of Scotland and EFTA pointing out,inter alia,that the Scottish Government paper "Scotland's European Future" has suggested this last December as a way out for Scotland of being force fed full English Brexit.
So yes Chinese kids often do well and better than white kids no question. Black kids though very rarely if ever do.
Corbyn has shown an ability to compromise with reality, even when it clashes with his long-held personal views, most recently with Labour's move to a clear "soft Brexit" line. The government's positions, on the other hand, become more and more unreal.
Corbyn's Labour Party is now much more closely aligned with the view of business and industry than May's Tories - such is the topsy-turvy world that Cameron's referendum has created!
I think again as you say he hoovered up the lower class races but for the top quality races and animals the methods were less effective. You could beat (in several senses) an ordinary horse into winning low grade races (as indeed he won many such, and many in quick succession) but at the top end such methods fall down.
Despite what some headlines imply, it doesn't blame everything on racism. For example, it concludes that CPS decisions to prosecute are "broadly proportionate", that juries don't discriminate on the basis of race, and that in the main, sentencing decisions don't very markedly across ethnic groups on a like for like basis (except in drugs cases). It points out that a major reason for ethnic minority defendants getting longer sentences is due to their failure to plead guilty at an early stage.
It does point, correctly, to a lack of trust between some ethnic minority groups, and the Criminal Justice System. I'm not at all sure that simply getting more judges and magistrates from ethnic minority backgrounds would erode that distrust, though. I don't think black and Asian professional people are likely to be more trusted than white professional people who administer justice.
And we'll no longer be subjected to this sort of thing which is clearly against the wishes of the population:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41172638
And secondly, and relatedly, it's about attitude and social culture of the groups that the individuals who end up in prison belong to: attitude to the law, to authority, to education, to family and so on. There was an article on R4 about it this morning and one example it gave was that black teenagers hold notably less trust in the police and the judicial system than white teenagers of a similar background, leading them to tend not to engage with the system, not plead guilty and chalk up more procedural factors that increase their sentence. Where does that *greater* lack of trust come from. Experience may be a part of it - the police are not necessarily fully colour-blind yet - but my guess, and it is only a guess, is that it's more down to cultural attitudes which are reinforced within communities and which have a habit of producing feedback effects.
My favourite was the very sweet interview with the Japanese princess:
For press conference, Princess Mako say di first thing wey make am fall for Kei Komuro, na di way im dey smile wey be like sun.
''Since I be pickin, na di time I don know say I no go get royal title when I marry," na wetin she talk.
''While I don work to help di Emperor and I do di work wey person from royal family suppose do well-well, e dey sweet me to do wetin l want do with my own life.''
Because obviously she didn't actually say those words. But then, and we forget this all too often, she didn't say the words that appeared in the standard English translation of the press conference either.
You skirted around the question of Northern Ireland. What 'control' do 'we' gain?