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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The numbers game. Alastair Meeks on the forthcoming Parliament
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The numbers game. Alastair Meeks on the forthcoming Parliamentary votes on Brexit
Picture credit: House of Commons twitter feed.
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For example, I doubt that either the "dealers" or the "no dealers" will break away from the pack. They will fight hard internally, but when there is a proposal on the table they'll back it.
Similarly Ken Clarke is an honourable and romantic Europhile with a passionate hatred of socialism in all it's forms. He's not going to undermine the party he has served his entire adult life.
(And I don't think it's correct to say Lucas put Euro principle before party - I would group her with the Lib Dems but she's not worthy of special consideration)
http://www.politico.eu/article/the-trumpability-index
All primary bills will go through at 2nd reading. The Tory-DUP numbers and abstentions from Labour Leavers will see to that.
It's how they get amended at committee and report stage that will be key.
http://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-push-to-ease-brexit-law-through-house-of-commons/
... the fate of a lot of people from mainland Europe will be hugely symbolic. Most of the EU citizens I have spoken to in Peterborough do not have a leftwing thought in their heads; they believe in a credo of self-reliance, hard work and home ownership. In a British context, these ideas are as Tory as they come. So how come so many Conservatives now want to slam the door on their most devout adherents?
And what of the economy? Peterborough is one of the largest urban centres of a region of England in which unemployment is below the national average; and in a city of nearly 300,000, a mere 1,770 people are currently claiming out-of-work benefits. Its successive waves of migration from the EU – first Poles, Latvians and Lithuanians, then Bulgarians and Romanians – have fed a job market in which most British people are barely interested. Nonetheless, all of us have come to expect the benefits: cut-price food; consumerism-on-tap; the confidence of knowing that an online click today means a delivery tomorrow; the idea that if the worst comes to the worst, some or other army of care workers will be there to look after us.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/07/europeans-british-dream-uk-immigration-future
https://twitter.com/LastQuake/status/906022812330082305/photo/1
they could just get off their arses and do the work themselves
In some ways the tiny majority that the government enjoys limits the scope for the token protest on their side. Everyone, even bone heads like Peter Bone, is very aware that the government has no room for manoeuvre. I agree with Alastair that this means they will fight for what they want internally (such as more control of the Ministerial discretion) but then support the group decision.
The Lords is another country but I think they will be cautious about blocking this Bill per se. I suspect that they will take some comfort from very close votes in the Commons to ask the Commons to think again on specific issues.
Its going to be a rough ride. The consequences of the disastrous election campaign goes on and on. And May is still there. Its surprising in many ways.
you want to take us back to 1910
the correct answer is to pay people correctly and force businesses to focus on productivity to keep costs down. That way GDP increases and we get away from an addiction to cheap labour.
some of us still want a high skill high wage economy
and then we make it worse by not building houses and infrastructure and crapping on our own people as a result.
And I seriously doubt the home office is trying to make it as hard as possible, it's just standardising the rules so that EU and non-EU people are treated the same.
I agree on the infrastructure. But that is not the EU's fault or the fault of immigrants. That is the fault of the UK government.
you dont have to get permission to run your business as long as its legal
you can set a company up for a pound and not the 25,000 minimum capital common in may EU countries
you dont need a notary to overcharge you for doing nothing
you can get a bank account easier than anywhere else and a loan
you dont have to grovel to inspecteur du travail or Arbeitsamt
I suggest a sense of perspective might help you, or maybe another holiday
@DavidL has it spot on
Another good article, Mr. Meeks. Dark and gloomy here.
Meanwhile, the stats in this story appear not to show bias, but that minorities commit more crime than white people. David 'black smoke' Lammy's answer appears to be to let people off prosecution minor crimes [instead completing a rehab course]. It's unclear if he wants this for everyone, or just people who aren't white.
More importantly, why is demographic over-representation of ethnic minorities horrendous, but over-representation of men, which occurs at a far larger scale, fine? Nobody gives a shit we have over 20 men imprisoned for every 1 woman, but when ethnic minorities comprise 14% of the population but 25% of the prison population something must be done. Indeed, there have been calls from some particularly limp-wristed bedwetters (Clegg) for even softer judicial 'punishments' for women, and just over a decade or so ago the Corston Report recommended not sending women to prison at all.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41191311
staring with Blair and running to the current day
Ive set up companies in France Germany and the Czech Republic
it;s extremely tedious, takes longer than the UK and most of all its very expensive.
then once youve set it up the cost of maintaining them is more onerous
The places with the highest house prices, and swamped infrastructure mostly voted Remain, as did people of working age who were most impacted by housing costs. These are the areas with highest private sector employment.
The Brexit vote was largely driven by austerity, which also explains why so many Kippers switched to Corbynism, and why the £350 million per week for the NHS resonated so well. It is also why Brexit will fail to cure the ills, austerity will worsen as we become the sick man of Europe again.
Likewise, Leadsom's Jacobite changes to Commons rules will probably struggle to gain acceptance.
In themselves, these might be small defeats, but they will both encourage, and grant further opportunities for, further opposition.
as ever you agitprop the extremes and call it normality
just about every who wants to restrict immigration on PB wants controlled immigration which matches the needs of the country and not a ban
and while you waltz around in London lalal land which could of course be different I can assure you up here in the Midlands I am not being pushed about by self-starting, hard-working european entrepreneurs chasing my company;s business
The fact some Labour and UKIP Leave voters having voted on referendum day to regain sovereignty and control of UK borders then voted for Corbyn on general election day to protest against austerity does not change that, especially as Corbyn had committed to Brexit and even leaving the single market to end free movement anyway
In a word, anyone....?
As for extremes - it's not me saying that the only reason we have high levels of EU immigration is because middle class English people want servants :-D
As for the english middle classes looking servants, thats not extreme that's just common sense :-)
With one seat counting this morning, a net five losses for the Conservatives (six actual losses, three to Labour, two to the Greens and one to the LDs offset by a gain from the LDs)
Net three gains for Labour, two gains for the Greens and no change for the LDs.
Small turnouts generally as you'd expect - a couple of headlines, a poor LD result in Colchester confirming how far the party has sunk there since Bob Russell lost the seat offset by a nice gain not too far away in Ely.
In my "manor", to use the expression, a solid LAB hold in South Norwood, a seat which has been a marginal in past Croydon contests. A swing of about 5% to Labour since 2014 suggesting Labour will likely retain control of Croydon next year. Good upswing in the LD vote in a seat the party once worked quite hard.
Sorry, more than one word..
"How lower carbon emissions can cure Alzheimer's."
"Removing Nelson's column is what Diana would have wanted."
"Worst winter storm for a century predicted following refusal to return Elgin Marbles."
How's the punting going? Been slack around here but the NH starts to crank up a gear soon, and I'm really looking forward to the new season. Seen any interesting juveniles.
(Horses, that is. Ahem.)
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/905935451504205830
The polls between now and then will bear close examination.Once the Tory share hits 35% and less, and the trend is clearly down,TMay is a dead parrot.
As for 2-y-o this season, plenty who look good and run well on debut but don't always go on. I was at Sandown at the back end of July and saw one called BOLD REASON, from the Gosden yard, run fourth in a 7-furlong maiden. He was my paddock pick that night and will learn a lot from the experience. Probably no world beater.
Like you, I always like a good maiden in the autumn (Ahem).
It's clear some see Boris's bonhomie and silliness as a way of re-connecting with the voters and a way of ensuring continued Conservative Government. The fact Boris has no ideological consistency and is arguably even more of an interventionist than May won't matter as long as he delivers election success.
None of it matters - all that matters is keeping the Conservative Party in Government. Out of Government (as we saw in the Blair years), the Conservative Party is of little use to anyone.
Fraid the flat will always be for me a way to pass the time until the real stuff gets going again. I note your paddock pick though, and will look out for it.
Btw, Richard Johnson is riding out of his skin at the moment. I've always thought the difference a jockey makes is fairly marginal - most can boot home the best horse if they are on it - but I've seen him steal a few this year and he seems rejuvenated.
Whatever he's on, I want some....in more ways than one.
Excellent night thanks. Saw John le Carre talk about his and George Smiley's life. What a patriot Smiley was. What a good believer in Europe also.
It will always be Johnson's misfortune to have been in the same era as AP McCoy but he is a fine rider. I saw him get BRAAVOS home at Southwell on Wednesday and that was a superb ride out of the top drawer.
Mick Kinane on Grand Lodge in the St. James's Palace Stakes
Lester on Royal Academy at the Breeders' Cup
John Francome on Sea Pigeon in the Champion Hurdle
Luke Harvey on Cool Ground in the Welsh National
etc...etc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33WvP8EA22A
He was riding a finish on the way to the start. And what a field that was - Lady Rebeccah, Le Coudray, Paddy's Return....Ah, they don't make stayers like they used to.
And as for Leg-Lock Luke....well!
BAME kids are more likely to be in the prison system and they're more likely to come from one-parent families. Not sure that the Authorities can force couples to stay together.
They tend to get longer sentences because they're less likely to take the advice of their solicitors. Not sure that's the fault of the solicitors.
The report seems to blame racism for everything. That may be a factor, but association doesn't prove causation. Still this is 'social' science not real science, so what do I know?
Your application in the post?
The short-term boost to the economy from a sharp devaluation of the £ will be wearing off soon, inflation is creeping up, and as for the Brexit negotiations..... Could be a tough winter, but we'll see.
After reading the Guardian report of his speech which did quote him, I will give Lammy credit for being a little more nuanced than the BBC report. But he does start off by assuming the cause of the problem. My scientific hackles always rise at that. Scientists are sometimes biased too, but usually not so blatantly.
https://www.ft.com/content/d16bb47c-93ba-11e7-bdfa-eda243196c2c
Normally one would expect some serious mid-term problems in a year or so. Brexit makes predictions based on past experience difficult to judge, though - people will see politics mainly through the prism of whether negotiators are being seen to be doing a good job for Britain. The Tories might be doing quite well, or really awfully. Who knows?