Categories
Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The evening must read
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The evening must read
Must read by ConHome's @wallaceme on what went wrong with the CON GE17 campaign. In 2 words "totally unprepared" https://t.co/OIecudAySo
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
The third of the trilogy!!
2010-2015-2017!!!
3-0
3-0
3-0!!!!
2022 next !!!!!
A swing of 0.2% would give the Conservatives 323 seats; a swing of 0.5% 328 seats; a swing of 1% 335 seats.
It would seem CCHQ was looking to replay 2015 in very different circumstances. It wasn't just getting the same people back together, but dealing with 2 new leaders as well as Brexit.
In the end, it was a failure to define WHY an election was necessary and WHAT were the advantages of voting Tory.
The only answers were to keep JC out.
And yes I know they won most votes and seats, before anyone tells me.
https://twitter.com/SKalyvas/status/859059501256900609
2. Tory contacts think Richard Leonard would boost Ruth's chances of becoming FM
The Labour campaign centrally was a bit lashed together at last minute, but the distinctive feature was spontaneous ground level activism. Momentum turned out the canvassers in droves, and for Flint and Kendall as well as the Jezziah. Coupled with Union activists on secondment it allowed a lot more off the cuff, organic campaigning.
PB Tories mocked the lack of Labour targetting, and doing rallies in safe seats, but their targetting was far worse and did not capture the spirit of the times.
I reckon there is a permanent advantage to Labour from having 3 times the membership, younger membership and union organosers on tap. Corbyn never stops campaigning, and loves grass roots issues, he understands pavement politics. He is not copying the remote Tory style of ignoring the voters except at election times.
Surbiton asked Richard N.
"For someone who was so pro-Remain, you have had a radical change of heart. Could it be that your leader is now pro-Leave ?"
I am sure Richard can answer for himself but it is clear that his attitude is that the people have spoken and we now need to get the very best deal for the UK. There are a number of other former Remainers who feel the same.
Richard has made clear on a number of occasions that he regrets the result and would rather we had voted to stay in but he is now moving on and exploring how best to make it all work. It is an admirable position.
Leonard becoming Lab leader would shatter the Radical Independence Campaign as a whole much of lefties peel off independence for Corbynism in Scotland.
1 The Tories complete failure to offer any goodies in the manifesto. Whereas in 2015 they promised an inheritance tax cut, the triple lock and a care costs cap if you got dementia in 2017 they offered the dementia tax, an end to the triple lock and an end to free school lunches.
2 Theresa May's lack of charisma. Before 2017 you have you have to go back to 1992 to find a general election when the less charismatic party leader won most seats and Major ran a far more effective campaign than May focused on the threat of tax rises from Kinnock and taking to his soap box. Plus of course although she won most seats May lost her majority.
The late contracts given to key figures in the Tory campaign are all very interesting but it was the above 2 factors which led to the failure to produce an outright Tory win
I am fond of both Greece and my own country, but both are living beyond their means and focussing on history.
David Allen Green likens being a Briton to being an Aston Villa supporter, watching dross, and booing at the whistle, but still a supporter. As a Leicester fan, I sympathise, we have been there too:
https://twitter.com/JackofKent/status/904630367612805120
You do make a valid point on targeting and campaigning but the whole reason May called a general election was to increase her majority which was why seats like Ilford North (which I campaigned in), Birmingham Erdington, Barrow and Furness, Mansfield etc were targeted (and indeed a handful like the latter were actually gained from Labour, some of which I even phoned). If the Tories had been focused on seats they already held like Peterborough, Canterbury, Keighley, Bristol North West etc they lost from Labour they would have lowered their chance of increasing their majority even with a slightly better campaign. Next time the latter will be the Tories focus, not the former (apart from a few Labour seats with very small majorities like Barrow) and the Tories will be aiming for any majority, however small, not a landslide.
Here in Epping Forest we are also holding more regular action days at least monthly to keep a presence outside of election time too
Last year, the amount of crimes in Leipzig rose by 15,000 to 88,615 according to newspaper reports citing official crime statistics.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4854912/Fury-German-police-tell-women-jog-pairs.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/05/police-missed-chance-strangle-2011-riots-infancy/
The FTPA was built for and only matters in a period of a Hung Parliament. Like 2010. Or now. The FTPA means that if in a couple of years and a couple of by-elections the Tories now can't just cut and run for another election - the Labour Party could threaten to vote against the election and demand a shot at power without an election. That couldn't happen pre-FTPA.
Edit: and JRM to the 1850s!
All produced by Branson's son!
Grrrrrr!
Edit: and I think they're going to mention one of the deaths. They haven't mentioned the three poor engineers who died earlier in the program. Engineers don't matter, obviously ...
Their super amazing kettling tactics just about work against majority peaceful protest who've pre-arranged with the police as to where they would be. Hee haw use against majority violent rioters who don't stay in one place.
My impression was that the Tories thought they had the election in the bag, so they might as well get a mandate to do dour, unpleasant things that they thought necessary - tax rises, scrapping the triple lock, dementia tax, school lunches all came under the heading of clearing the decks to give Hammong space to restructure public finances. By the time they realised they were in a horse-race, it was too late to adjust.
There was talk of the Tories taking Leicester West, and as a Kendall fan I followed that one closely. Liz had her troops well marshalled and out in strength, but the Tories hardly showed.
I watched Don Valley too, because of TP, but while he put in the effort, he seemed to have thin support, while Flint had the numbers.
The Tories have stopped publishing membership numbers,but the last one was 130 000 and falling, while LDs are at 100 000 and rising. It is very possible that within the next year we have crossover. Labour, Green, SNP, and LDs are all younger healthier memberships. Members does not equal votes of course, but is a matter of consequence.
The Tory reliance on call centres, bussed in activists, and Facebook adds circulating in a bubble are why they got it so wrong. David Herdsons Tuesday wobble from canvassing his own patch was the first real indication of what was to happen 2 days later. Street level intelligence and feedback was severely lacking.
At the next election the Tory canvassers are going to be sparser and older. They will not get the youth vote, as they have nothing to offer them.
Corbyn certainly was a better campaigner than May and had more goodies in his manifesto on ending tuition fees, increasing public sector pay etc though he was more effective at maximising the vote from the left inclined than winning many swing voters given the Tories still won more votes.
Your final paragraph is correct, May wanted a mandate to take difficult unpopular decisions forgetting that if all you propose are difficult unpopular decisions voters may not want to give you that mandate in the first place
So, next time, can we please get both strategy and execution right?
Here in Epping Forest, which is similarly blue at parliamentary elections, Tory activists were sent to Ilford North, Enfield North and Thurrock which were much more marginal.
Leicester West was not even in the top 75 Tory target seats so I doubt much effort was put in there, though Don Valley as you say may have seen more activity.
One of the biggest rises in Tory membership in recent decades was under Hague and fat lot of good it did them, in 2005 Labour membership was far lower than in 2017 and yet Labour won almost 100 more seats in 2005 than it did in 2017.
There is nothing wrong with call centres as such, it helped win Copeland and a few other seats like Mansfield, Stoke South and Walsall North although I agree it can only go hand in hand with boots on the ground and not replace it.
The Tories almost never win the youth vote, even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock won it, so they are not something to be too concerned about, where they need to focus on is the 40 to 50 year olds, they will be the key to getting any form of Tory majority next time
May had and has zero understanding of why Osborne and Cameron were successful. Sadly for them she is not alone.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/905177562384654336
That the Conservatives managed to go backwards against someone who, by any standard, is the most unsuitable figure to have been proposed as a prospective PM by any major party in modern times is a matter of deep shame and concern, but it doesn't alter the relative merits of the two candidates for the job.
Snip @foxinsoxuk
The Tory reliance on call centres, bussed in activists, and Facebook adds circulating in a bubble are why they got it so wrong. David Herdsons Tuesday wobble from canvassing his own patch was the first real indication of what was to happen 2 days later. Street level intelligence and feedback was severely lacking.
Do find the use of call centres rather bewildering.
Most young people don't have landlines/ don't answer their parents' (as they know it won't be for them), and block/ignore unknown numbers.
It seems to be a way of ensuring you won't contact anyone under 40 at all.
Are any of these ever going to reach a conclusion?
She wasn't grovelling to anyone, why would she when she had such delusions of grandeur she thought campaigning on a "vote for Me" platform rather than "vote Conservative" was a good idea? Could you just identify a couple of the relevant "hard right zanies" and name three policies which had the intention or effect of "grinding the bastards (i.e. the non-super-rich) into the dust" so that we can see what you are on about?
Osborne's inheritance tax cut was actually more regressive than the proposed dementia tax but far more appealing to voters who might vote Tory
Double or quits would either restore her credibility, or get her out of the bottomless pit of Brexit.
I can see why it looks attractive to her.
What's more, she'd be right to consider this possibility. As political punters, we do need to bear in mind the possibility that things could collapse suddenly and there would be no time for the Conservatives to change leader. More likely 2018 than this Autumn, though.
It is no surprise the Tories remained confident of victory right up to 10 pm. They were primarily canvassing their own supporters.
In any case, a large part of the Conservatives' problem was failure to get their vote out in full.
Also. it was the Labour leadership who were surprised. There were many at grass roots level who detected something was afoot.
"calm down, dear"
Your interpretation of information can be a little excitable.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/13/guest-slot-the-impact-of-leaving-the-eu-on-londons-technology-start-up-scene/
Maybe it is more accurate to say that politicians on both sides were surprised.
WTO Brexit incoming...
However, as far as the EU is concerned there are too many who think we should tip toe around their feelings
The really important movement in conservative thinking since the election has been on austerity.
First the DUP deal, now the public sector pay cap.
Freed from the shackles of austerity, I suspect the conservatives think they can run a *very* different - and far more successful - election campaign.
They might be right.