When people say we'll be worse off if we leave the EU, they should clarify whether they expect GDP per head to fall year on year after we leave, or whether they mean that it will rise less rapidly than would otherwise have been the case.
We will have even fewer public services and the quality of provision will get worse. There will be less public and private investment in infrastructure and wages growth will be lower than it otherwise would have been. Jobs and tax revenues that might have been created in the UK will be created elsewhere instead. It will be a drip, drip, drip - not a big bang.
Shhhh. Listen. Did you hear that? £100m not being invested in the UK.
That Janan Ganesh article (for it is he) is fascinating.
[snip]
Has he imagined a future where Britain thrives? Where it deepens and strengthens its global trading relationships, adopts a more flexible approach to regulation and has a well-structured immigration policy focussed on attracting the best talent from around the world?
Nope. He is counting all of the (imagined) lost opportunities, and discounting any new ones.
[snip]
While a more globally connected Britain is possible, and can certainly be imagined, it is unlikely to happen in practice and there is no reason to believe it will. Leaving aside argument and rhetoric and go to the concrete, the here and now, the tyre hitting the road, Brexit is a disconnection. We have rejected the EU system without an alternative system. The EU won't allow us to trade with them in an integrated way unless we do it on their rules. Otherwise it undermines the system and potentially damages the interests of its members.
Third countries already deal with the EU on their system and don't particularly want us to do something different. There was a survey of US companies about what they would be looking for in US/UK trade deal and, by far, the top two wants was for the UK to stay in the EU Single Market and Customs Union. They had structured their investments on that assumption and they didn't see any upside to changing it. Mr Abe was saying something similar to Mrs May in Tokyo last week.
We can either go along with the EU system as rule takers and keep many of our current relationships going at some level or we reject the EU system and the Ganesh scenario kicks in. There isn't a likely scenario where we are ahead of where we are now, but if we go for the second we will probably go backwards a fair bit. We're already seeing the government taking the first approach with the so called "copycat trade deals". This isn't simply a matter of not having the time and resources to go bespoke. The UK is unlikely to get as good a deal as it currently enjoys through the EU, if it goes it alone.
The point is that, having decided to leave the EU, we have a genuine choice: (1) Throw our lot in with those we have just rejected, take their rules and minimise the damage of Brexit. or (2) Go it alone with reduced connections not just with the EU (our main relationship) but with third countries as well, with a significant hit to our economy. Or possibly something between the two. Opinion polls show the Conservatives are approximately divided between the two options. The country as a whole favours mitigation.
"Global Britain" isn't a choice now we have rejected EU membership.
First, it wasn't the best paper, it was the first one on Google. As I also said, it seems immigration is neutral towards productivity but you keep on banging on about it.
Secondly, businesses want cheap, competent labour. Often ideally, I would imagine, English-speaking. Nor can they all invest in training and arguably why should they beyond a basic level. This workforce is not being provided by our education system. That is the issue; if it was being provided then our productivity would increase.
Do you have any evidence it is education that is the issue?
If I was to rank productivity issues I'd rank it last out of:
1: The internet being a massive distracting time waster (how many post here while they're supposed to be working)? 2: Consciously choosing less productive (but better quality) options. 3: A lack of investment in machinery. 4: Education.
This very good article pretty much explains why I voted Remain and why there is unlikely to be a substantial shift in public opinion for a number of years:
The yearning for British failure among some Remainers is very revealing.
Lets look at some economic facts:
When did the UK last have a trade surplus month ? 1998 When did UK industrial output peak ? 2000 When did UK government debt as a % of GDP start increasing ? 2002 When did home ownerships level start falling in the UK ? 2003
When did declinism begin ?
And one more:
When did UK productivity start its stagnation ? 2006
Declinism was a cause of the Leave vote, not a consequence.
And do you think Leaving will halt it?
It gives us opportunities to address it. Whether we seize those opportunities or let them slide through our fingers is very much up to us and those we elect. The last point may be a problem of course. Are there any adults in the room?
We already have those opportunities. We are not the only EU member state with high levels of immigration. We do seem to be the only one with a serious productivity problem.
We do not have the right to control the flow of unskilled and semi-skilled labour from the EU. This has consequences.
We have exactly the same rights as other EU member states that have high levels of immigration but do not have our productivity problems.
That Janan Ganesh article (for it is he) is fascinating.
[snip]
Has he imagined a future where Britain thrives? Where it deepens and strengthens its global trading relationships, adopts a more flexible approach to regulation and has a well-structured immigration policy focussed on attracting the best talent from around the world?
Nope. He is counting all of the (imagined) lost opportunities, and discounting any new ones.
[snip]
While a more globally connected Britain is possible, and can certainly be imagined, it is unlikely to happen in practice and there is no reason to believe it will. Leaving aside argument and rhetoric and go to the concrete, the here and now, the tyre hitting the road, Brexit is a disconnection. We have rejected the EU system without an alternative system. The EU won't allow us to trade with them in an integrated way unless we do it on their rules. Otherwise it undermines the system and potentially damages the interests of its members.
Third countries already deal with the EU on their system and don't particularly want us to do something different. There was a survey of US companies about what they would be looking for in US/UK trade deal and, by far, the top two wants was for the UK to stay in the EU Single Market and Customs Union. They had structured their investments on that assumption and they didn't see any upside to changing it. Mr Abe was saying something similar to Mrs May in Tokyo last week.
We can either go along with the EU system as rule takers and keep many of our current relationships going at some level or we reject the EU system and the Ganesh scenario kicks in. There isn't a likely scenario where we are ahead of where we are now, but if we go for the second we will probably go backwards a fair bit. We're already seeing the government taking the first approach with the so called "copycat trade deals". This isn't simply a matter of not having the time and resources to go bespoke. The UK is unlikely to get as good a deal as it currently enjoys through the EU, if it goes it alone.
The thing about any FTA we agree with the Americans is that it will be dictated by them. Our choice will be to accept or reject. That's it. And the same essentially applies to any FTA we do with any major economy. And no-one is going to finalise anything with us until our relationship with the EI is finalised.
I don't like making connections between immigration and productivity because I believe the answer to increased productivity lies in our education system and that is independent of immigration.
But for those who say that immigration negatively affects productivity, here is a paper that says that it actually increases it. Take away the immigration and you take away that increase. Would lower immigration motivate schools to upskill their students in the face of pressure from business for plentiful, competent labour? Well first, that's a huge leap, and second, surely government policy has been trying to do that for decades, and hence I don't think the two things should be conflated.
Productivity has little to do with education and more to do with technology and choice.
The easy go to answer is to say that education is the panacea but it is not, the reality is that technology (which develops through education of course) is what makes the real difference. The reality is that virtually the entire workforce is not going to return to education and it is machinery rather than schools that drive a lot of productivity growth.
Some of the stagnating productivity is currently deliberate and is to improve service which can't be measured via productivity figures. 20 years ago if I wanted a coffee I'd go to a kettle, boil some water, add a teaspoon of instant coffee and some milk and job done. 10 years ago if I wanted a coffee I'd go to the nearby Subway and they'd put a cup under their machine, press a button and out would pop a latte. Now if I want a coffee I order a coffee and a barista steams milk and makes a fresh coffee.
Which of those is productive? The most productive coffee is for me to make instant myself. The least productive is paying a barista to steam milk by hand. But the intangible quality and service is what is getting paid for despite it being terribly unproductive.
The fact is we pay for the luxury of unproductive choices because we can afford to. It would be far cheaper to get a machine that does coffees and skip the barista and it would be cheaper still to get a kettle. But we decide we can afford to pay a barista because we enjoy the experience.
First, it wasn't the best paper, it was the first one on Google. As I also said, it seems immigration is neutral towards productivity but you keep on banging on about it.
Secondly, businesses want cheap, competent labour. Often ideally, I would imagine, English-speaking. Nor can they all invest in training and arguably why should they beyond a basic level. This workforce is not being provided by our education system. That is the issue; if it was being provided then our productivity would increase.
Do you have any evidence it is education that is the issue?
If I was to rank productivity issues I'd rank it last out of:
1: The internet being a massive distracting time waster (how many post here while they're supposed to be working)? 2: Consciously choosing less productive (but better quality) options. 3: A lack of investment in machinery. 4: Education.
I hate those nespresso machines, and the coffee they produce and there's even a nespresso shop in London, god help us.
As for productivity, you highlight an interesting point, and yes I have my car washed by a team of (probably) Latvians rather than in the BP car wash. But the fact remains that the UK's productivity lags well behind our neighbours' and we would do a lot better if we could improve it.
Indeed car washing is another great example. The idea of paying someone to wash your car by hand was alien for the vast majority 20 years ago, either you washed your own car or went through the automatic car wash. Now so many get their cars washed by hand. We could up our productivity by using automatic car washes but the less productive hand washes are perceived to be better.
Yes we could do better if we improve it and we should try. But there are many intangibles like service and quality that can't be measured in these aggregate statistics.
It's very possible that the rise of AI and automation sweeps away decades of assumptions about the economic importance of low-skilled mass immigration very quickly in the coming years.
Of course, that will pose other big challenges. Both for us domestically, but also for nations that currently export people.
First, it wasn't the best paper, it was the first one on Google. As I also said, it seems immigration is neutral towards productivity but you keep on banging on about it.
Secondly, businesses want cheap, competent labour. Often ideally, I would imagine, English-speaking. Nor can they all invest in training and arguably why should they beyond a basic level. This workforce is not being provided by our education system. That is the issue; if it was being provided then our productivity would increase.
You started the argument about productivity and migration by posting the link to the paper. I merely commented on how poor it was. Its interesting to note you've changed your tune from it does have an impact to actually it doesn't..
Equally businesses don't necessarily want cheap competent labour. I may be the exception (but taking to my colleagues I'm not). What I want competent labour that allows me to make a profit its unlikely to be the cheapest...
First, it wasn't the best paper, it was the first one on Google. As I also said, it seems immigration is neutral towards productivity but you keep on banging on about it.
Secondly, businesses want cheap, competent labour. Often ideally, I would imagine, English-speaking. Nor can they all invest in training and arguably why should they beyond a basic level. This workforce is not being provided by our education system. That is the issue; if it was being provided then our productivity would increase.
Do you have any evidence it is education that is the issue?
If I was to rank productivity issues I'd rank it last out of:
1: The internet being a massive distracting time waster (how many post here while they're supposed to be working)? 2: Consciously choosing less productive (but better quality) options. 3: A lack of investment in machinery. 4: Education.
"I voted Brexit to ban the internet."
Or perhaps we should blow it up?
Who said anything about banning the internet? Are you that antithetical to serious debate?
When people say we'll be worse off if we leave the EU, they should clarify whether they expect GDP per head to fall year on year after we leave, or whether they mean that it will rise less rapidly than would otherwise have been the case.
We will have even fewer public services and the quality of provision will get worse. There will be less public and private investment in infrastructure and wages growth will be lower than it otherwise would have been. Jobs and tax revenues that might have been created in the UK will be created elsewhere instead. It will be a drip, drip, drip - not a big bang.
Shhhh. Listen. Did you hear that? £100m not being invested in the UK.
I keep coming back to it, but as a business we will not invest as much in our UK operation once we are out of the single market. It makes no sense to do so as we will be servicing a country of 65 million people from our London office in future, not an economic area of 450 million. Instead, we'll grow our US and Asian operations, and look to open an office inside the single market to take advantage of European opportunities. We are but a tiny cog in the UK economy - albeit a pretty fast-growing and well-paying one - but if that is how we think, you can bet your bottom dollar many others will as well. We will not be laying people off, it's just we will not be employing them at the rate we otherwise would have done. And the upshot of this is fewer jobs and less government income.
I hate those nespresso machines, and the coffee they produce and there's even a nespresso shop in London, god help us.
As for productivity, you highlight an interesting point, and yes I have my car washed by a team of (probably) Latvians rather than in the BP car wash. But the fact remains that the UK's productivity lags well behind our neighbours' and we would do a lot better if we could improve it.
Indeed car washing is another great example. The idea of paying someone to wash your car by hand was alien for the vast majority 20 years ago, either you washed your own car or went through the automatic car wash. Now so many get their cars washed by hand. We could up our productivity by using automatic car washes but the less productive hand washes are perceived to be better.
Yes we could do better if we improve it and we should try. But there are many intangibles like service and quality that can't be measured in these aggregate statistics.
It's very possible that the rise of AI and automation sweeps away decades of assumptions about the economic importance of low-skilled mass immigration very quickly in the coming years.
This very good article pretty much explains why I voted Remain and why there is unlikely to be a substantial shift in public opinion for a number of years:
The yearning for British failure among some Remainers is very revealing.
Lets look at some economic facts:
When did the UK last have a trade surplus month ? 1998 When did UK industrial output peak ? 2000 When did UK government debt as a % of GDP start increasing ? 2002 When did home ownerships level start falling in the UK ? 2003
When did declinism begin ?
And one more:
When did UK productivity start its stagnation ? 2006
Declinism was a cause of the Leave vote, not a consequence.
And do you think Leaving will halt it?
It gives us opportunities to address it. Whether we seize those opportunities or let them slide through our fingers is very much up to us and those we elect. The last point may be a problem of course. Are there any adults in the room?
We already have those opportunities. We are not the only EU member state with high levels of immigration. We do seem to be the only one with a serious productivity problem.
We do not have the right to control the flow of unskilled and semi-skilled labour from the EU. This has consequences.
We have exactly the same rights as other EU member states that have high levels of immigration but do not have our productivity problems.
Other countries can use language skills to create an artificial barrier that encourages the employment of local people before migrants. Sadly everyone can speak English so we can't use the Dutch / French approach of not fluent enough....
I hate those nespresso machines, and the coffee they produce and there's even a nespresso shop in London, god help us.
As for productivity, you highlight an interesting point, and yes I have my car washed by a team of (probably) Latvians rather than in the BP car wash. But the fact remains that the UK's productivity lags well behind our neighbours' and we would do a lot better if we could improve it.
Indeed car washing is another great example. The idea of paying someone to wash your car by hand was alien for the vast majority 20 years ago, either you washed your own car or went through the automatic car wash. Now so many get their cars washed by hand. We could up our productivity by using automatic car washes but the less productive hand washes are perceived to be better.
Yes we could do better if we improve it and we should try. But there are many intangibles like service and quality that can't be measured in these aggregate statistics.
It's very possible that the rise of AI and automation sweeps away decades of assumptions about the economic importance of low-skilled mass immigration very quickly in the coming years.
Of course, that will pose other big challenges. Both for us domestically, but also for nations that currently export people.
I've never assumed low-skilled mass immigration was a good idea. We have enough of our own low-skilled people we can employ.
However I think actually the rise of AI and automation may oddly enough sweep away centuries of assumptions of the importance of education etc - oddly enough we may end up in a situation with two big extremes with very few doing very highly technical jobs . . . and a lot of people in service jobs where a human touch is simply appreciated rather than being strictly necessary.
First, it wasn't the best paper, it was the first one on Google. As I also said, it seems immigration is neutral towards productivity but you keep on banging on about it.
Secondly, businesses want cheap, competent labour. Often ideally, I would imagine, English-speaking. Nor can they all invest in training and arguably why should they beyond a basic level. This workforce is not being provided by our education system. That is the issue; if it was being provided then our productivity would increase.
You started the argument about productivity and migration by posting the link to the paper. I merely commented on how poor it was. Its interesting to note you've changed your tune from it does have an impact to actually it doesn't..
Equally businesses don't necessarily want cheap competent labour. I may be the exception (but taking to my colleagues I'm not). What I want competent labour that allows me to make a profit its unlikely to be the cheapest...
Not at all - DavidL said that immigration negatively affected productivity. I googled and found that one paper said that not only does it not negatively affect productivity, it increases productivity in the native workforce.
And I thought we were talking about the fruit pickers and baristas that was depressing the wages apparently of the less well-educated. Not some techno high-flyers who are employable anywhere.
First, it wasn't the best paper, it was the first one on Google. As I also said, it seems immigration is neutral towards productivity but you keep on banging on about it.
Secondly, businesses want cheap, competent labour. Often ideally, I would imagine, English-speaking. Nor can they all invest in training and arguably why should they beyond a basic level. This workforce is not being provided by our education system. That is the issue; if it was being provided then our productivity would increase.
Do you have any evidence it is education that is the issue?
If I was to rank productivity issues I'd rank it last out of:
1: The internet being a massive distracting time waster (how many post here while they're supposed to be working)? 2: Consciously choosing less productive (but better quality) options. 3: A lack of investment in machinery. 4: Education.
"I voted Brexit to ban the internet."
Or perhaps we should blow it up?
Who said anything about banning the internet? Are you that antithetical to serious debate?
You said the internet was the biggest barrier to increased productivity. So I suggested a couple of alternatives (banning, blowing up) to remove that barrier.
And I must away now for a bit, team. Will read back and answer all the mad Brexiters on my return.
I was explaining my view of the overall economic effects on the UK economy. Let me make it simple for you
I understood it perfectly, and you were simply wrong
There is no scenario where an increase in non-tariff barriers has a beneficial effect on any timescale
Our non-EU trade will always be a fraction of our EU trade. That is a matter of Geography, not politics
Um. Our non-EU trade - or at least the important bit which is the exports - is already larger than our EU trade. Only 44% of UK goods and services exports went to the EU in 2016.
This very good article pretty much explains why I voted Remain and why there is unlikely to be a substantial shift in public opinion for a number of years:
The yearning for British failure among some Remainers is very revealing.
Lets look at some economic facts:
When did the UK last have a trade surplus month ? 1998 When did UK industrial output peak ? 2000 When did UK government debt as a % of GDP start increasing ? 2002 When did home ownerships level start falling in the UK ? 2003
When did declinism begin ?
And one more:
When did UK productivity start its stagnation ? 2006
Declinism was a cause of the Leave vote, not a consequence.
And do you think Leaving will halt it?
It gives us opportunities to address it. Whether we seize those opportunities or let them slide through our fingers is very much up to us and those we elect. The last point may be a problem of course. Are there any adults in the room?
We already have those opportunities. We are not the only EU member state with high levels of immigration. We do seem to be the only one with a serious productivity problem.
We do not have the right to control the flow of unskilled and semi-skilled labour from the EU. This has consequences.
We have exactly the same rights as other EU member states that have high levels of immigration but do not have our productivity problems.
Other countries can use language skills to create an artificial barrier that encourages the employment of local people before migrants. Sadly everyone can speak English so we can't use the Dutch / French approach of not fluent enough....
Unemployment levels in Germany are low, immigration is high, wages have grown faster than in the UK and productivity is better.
I was explaining my view of the overall economic effects on the UK economy. Let me make it simple for you
I understood it perfectly, and you were simply wrong
There is no scenario where an increase in non-tariff barriers has a beneficial effect on any timescale
Our non-EU trade will always be a fraction of our EU trade. That is a matter of Geography, not politics
Um. Our non-EU trade - or at least the important bit which is the exports - is already larger than our EU trade. Only 44% of UK goods and services exports went to the EU in 2016.
Trade is a two way street. The things we buy are just as important.
First, it wasn't the best paper, it was the first one on Google. As I also said, it seems immigration is neutral towards productivity but you keep on banging on about it.
Secondly, businesses want cheap, competent labour. Often ideally, I would imagine, English-speaking. Nor can they all invest in training and arguably why should they beyond a basic level. This workforce is not being provided by our education system. That is the issue; if it was being provided then our productivity would increase.
You started the argument about productivity and migration by posting the link to the paper. I merely commented on how poor it was. Its interesting to note you've changed your tune from it does have an impact to actually it doesn't..
Equally businesses don't necessarily want cheap competent labour. I may be the exception (but taking to my colleagues I'm not). What I want competent labour that allows me to make a profit its unlikely to be the cheapest...
Not at all - DavidL said that immigration negatively affected productivity. I googled and found that one paper said that not only does it not negatively affect productivity, it increases productivity in the native workforce.
And I thought we were talking about the fruit pickers and baristas that was depressing the wages apparently of the less well-educated. Not some techno high-flyers who are employable anywhere.
I think we can safely say that you failed to prove your first point.
On your second one there is a reason why Lidl and Aldi pay more than the minimum wage.....
First, it wasn't the best paper, it was the first one on Google. As I also said, it seems immigration is neutral towards productivity but you keep on banging on about it.
Secondly, businesses want cheap, competent labour. Often ideally, I would imagine, English-speaking. Nor can they all invest in training and arguably why should they beyond a basic level. This workforce is not being provided by our education system. That is the issue; if it was being provided then our productivity would increase.
Do you have any evidence it is education that is the issue?
If I was to rank productivity issues I'd rank it last out of:
1: The internet being a massive distracting time waster (how many post here while they're supposed to be working)? 2: Consciously choosing less productive (but better quality) options. 3: A lack of investment in machinery. 4: Education.
"I voted Brexit to ban the internet."
Or perhaps we should blow it up?
Who said anything about banning the internet? Are you that antithetical to serious debate?
You said the internet was the biggest barrier to increased productivity. So I suggested a couple of alternatives (banning, blowing up) to remove that barrier.
And I must away now for a bit, team. Will read back and answer all the mad Brexiters on my return.
No I said the internet is the biggest reason productivity is not what it could be. Do you have any evidence its not?
I asked if you had any evidence that education was our issue twice and both times you just make silly throw away remarks so I'm guessing no is the answer.
First, it wasn't the best paper, it was the first one on Google. As I also said, it seems immigration is neutral towards productivity but you keep on banging on about it.
Secondly, businesses want cheap, competent labour. Often ideally, I would imagine, English-speaking. Nor can they all invest in training and arguably why should they beyond a basic level. This workforce is not being provided by our education system. That is the issue; if it was being provided then our productivity would increase.
You started the argument about productivity and migration by posting the link to the paper. I merely commented on how poor it was. Its interesting to note you've changed your tune from it does have an impact to actually it doesn't..
Equally businesses don't necessarily want cheap competent labour. I may be the exception (but taking to my colleagues I'm not). What I want competent labour that allows me to make a profit its unlikely to be the cheapest...
Also, the biggest factor by a long chalk when it comes to productivity is the size of the market. That is why US companies do so well, and why German ones tend to be the most productive in Europe. If you are selling jam to 300 million people you can buy bigger equipment, get cheaper raw materials and use your staff more efficiently than if your home market is only 50 million.
I was explaining my view of the overall economic effects on the UK economy. Let me make it simple for you
I understood it perfectly, and you were simply wrong
There is no scenario where an increase in non-tariff barriers has a beneficial effect on any timescale
Our non-EU trade will always be a fraction of our EU trade. That is a matter of Geography, not politics
Um. Our non-EU trade - or at least the important bit which is the exports - is already larger than our EU trade. Only 44% of UK goods and services exports went to the EU in 2016.
Trade is a two way street. The things we buy are just as important.
Yep and if we look at overall trade instead of just imports the EU is still less than 50%
In 2015 Total trade with the EU was worth around £520 billion. At the same time total non EU trade was worth around £534 billion.
Mr. Eagles, as others have suspected, but it's an unforgivable sin to launch a campaign without being prepared. Not to mention being bloody stupid.
Morris their mindset was it was a forgone conclusion , not much preparation required.To be fair it was the same on here and I thought the same.
The problem wasn't the lack of preparation - Labour was similarly unprepared, as were the Scottish Tories. The problem was that so many seriously bad tactical and strategic errors were made during the campaign that they completely undermined the grand strategy. Lack of preparation was, for example, no excuse for writing the most unpopular manifesto in British history. Nor was it an excuse for airbrushing the economic achievements out of the campaign.
I don't disagree, but one of the advantages of calling a surprise election is in surprising the other side.
Mr. Eagles, as others have suspected, but it's an unforgivable sin to launch a campaign without being prepared. Not to mention being bloody stupid.
Morris their mindset was it was a forgone conclusion , not much preparation required.To be fair it was the same on here and I thought the same.
The problem wasn't the lack of preparation - Labour was similarly unprepared, as were the Scottish Tories. The problem was that so many seriously bad tactical and strategic errors were made during the campaign that they completely undermined the grand strategy. Lack of preparation was, for example, no excuse for writing the most unpopular manifesto in British history. Nor was it an excuse for airbrushing the economic achievements out of the campaign.
I don't disagree, but one of the advantages of calling a surprise election is in surprising the other side.
Hillary showing the classic example of the follies of an entirely data focused campaign, if it had been her husband he would have wowed the crowd naturally without all the forced theatrics
Hillary and Bill is rather like May and Boris you are either a natural charismatic campaigner or you are not, it can't be taught
I hate those nespresso machines, and the coffee they produce and there's even a nespresso shop in London, god help us.
As for productivity, you highlight an interesting point, and yes I have my car washed by a team of (probably) Latvians rather than in the BP car wash. But the fact remains that the UK's productivity lags well behind our neighbours' and we would do a lot better if we could improve it.
Indeed car washing is another great example. The idea of paying someone to wash your car by hand was alien for the vast majority 20 years ago, either you washed your own car or went through the automatic car wash. Now so many get their cars washed by hand. We could up our productivity by using automatic car washes but the less productive hand washes are perceived to be better.
Yes we could do better if we improve it and we should try. But there are many intangibles like service and quality that can't be measured in these aggregate statistics.
It's very possible that the rise of AI and automation sweeps away decades of assumptions about the economic importance of low-skilled mass immigration very quickly in the coming years.
I hate those nespresso machines, and the coffee they produce and there's even a nespresso shop in London, god help us.
As for productivity, you highlight an interesting point, and yes I have my car washed by a team of (probably) Latvians rather than in the BP car wash. But the fact remains that the UK's productivity lags well behind our neighbours' and we would do a lot better if we could improve it.
Indeed car washing is another great example. The idea of paying someone to wash your car by hand was alien for the vast majority 20 years ago, either you washed your own car or went through the automatic car wash. Now so many get their cars washed by hand. We could up our productivity by using automatic car washes but the less productive hand washes are perceived to be better.
Yes we could do better if we improve it and we should try. But there are many intangibles like service and quality that can't be measured in these aggregate statistics.
It's very possible that the rise of AI and automation sweeps away decades of assumptions about the economic importance of low-skilled mass immigration very quickly in the coming years.
Speaking on Russia-24, Nikita Isaev, leader of the far-right New Russia Movement, said the compromising material should be released in retaliation over the closure of several Russian diplomatic compounds across the US.
When asked whether Russia has such material, Mr Isaev, who is also director of the Russian Institute of Contemporary Economics, replied: "Of course we have it!”
Speaking on Russia-24, Nikita Isaev, leader of the far-right New Russia Movement, said the compromising material should be released in retaliation over the closure of several Russian diplomatic compounds across the US.
When asked whether Russia has such material, Mr Isaev, who is also director of the Russian Institute of Contemporary Economics, replied: "Of course we have it!”
Please not the footage of Trump and peeing hookers.
Speaking on Russia-24, Nikita Isaev, leader of the far-right New Russia Movement, said the compromising material should be released in retaliation over the closure of several Russian diplomatic compounds across the US.
When asked whether Russia has such material, Mr Isaev, who is also director of the Russian Institute of Contemporary Economics, replied: "Of course we have it!”
Please not the footage of Trump and peeing hookers.
Speaking on Russia-24, Nikita Isaev, leader of the far-right New Russia Movement, said the compromising material should be released in retaliation over the closure of several Russian diplomatic compounds across the US.
When asked whether Russia has such material, Mr Isaev, who is also director of the Russian Institute of Contemporary Economics, replied: "Of course we have it!”
Please not the footage of Trump and peeing hookers.
I DON'T WANT TO WRITE THAT THREAD.
The title writes itself: YELLOW IS THE NEW ORANGE.
Speaking on Russia-24, Nikita Isaev, leader of the far-right New Russia Movement, said the compromising material should be released in retaliation over the closure of several Russian diplomatic compounds across the US.
When asked whether Russia has such material, Mr Isaev, who is also director of the Russian Institute of Contemporary Economics, replied: "Of course we have it!”
Please not the footage of Trump and peeing hookers.
I DON'T WANT TO WRITE THAT THREAD.
The title writes itself: YELLOW IS THE NEW ORANGE.
Speaking on Russia-24, Nikita Isaev, leader of the far-right New Russia Movement, said the compromising material should be released in retaliation over the closure of several Russian diplomatic compounds across the US.
When asked whether Russia has such material, Mr Isaev, who is also director of the Russian Institute of Contemporary Economics, replied: "Of course we have it!”
Please not the footage of Trump and peeing hookers.
Speaking on Russia-24, Nikita Isaev, leader of the far-right New Russia Movement, said the compromising material should be released in retaliation over the closure of several Russian diplomatic compounds across the US.
When asked whether Russia has such material, Mr Isaev, who is also director of the Russian Institute of Contemporary Economics, replied: "Of course we have it!”
Please not the footage of Trump and peeing hookers.
I DON'T WANT TO WRITE THAT THREAD.
Is there anyone better qualified ?
Actually I've already written and published that thread.
Speaking on Russia-24, Nikita Isaev, leader of the far-right New Russia Movement, said the compromising material should be released in retaliation over the closure of several Russian diplomatic compounds across the US.
When asked whether Russia has such material, Mr Isaev, who is also director of the Russian Institute of Contemporary Economics, replied: "Of course we have it!”
Please not the footage of Trump and peeing hookers.
Iceland's foreign minister defied the funereal dirge about Britain's future trade prospects coming from Remainers, as he offered some cool-headed pragmatism. "Everyone wants to have a free trade deal with Britain," he said, explaining:
"You're the fifth largest economy in the world. Everyone wants to sell you goods and services, it's just as simple as that."
Mr Thordarson's observation shouldn't be a surprise, as Remainers have worked hard to make out that Britain's trading potential relies on it being part enmeshed in the European Union.
Iceland's foreign minister defied the funereal dirge about Britain's future trade prospects coming from Remainers, as he offered some cool-headed pragmatism. "Everyone wants to have a free trade deal with Britain," he said, explaining:
"You're the fifth largest economy in the world. Everyone wants to sell you goods and services, it's just as simple as that."
Mr Thordarson's observation shouldn't be a surprise, as Remainers have worked hard to make out that Britain's trading potential relies on it being part enmeshed in the European Union.
Makes sense - there will never be a better time to dictate terms to the UK than now. Every country in the world knows how important it will be politically for the government to get some FTAs signed quickly. But, clearly, no-one will finalise anything until the final provisions of the deal with the EU are known.
Speaking on Russia-24, Nikita Isaev, leader of the far-right New Russia Movement, said the compromising material should be released in retaliation over the closure of several Russian diplomatic compounds across the US.
When asked whether Russia has such material, Mr Isaev, who is also director of the Russian Institute of Contemporary Economics, replied: "Of course we have it!”
Please not the footage of Trump and peeing hookers.
I DON'T WANT TO WRITE THAT THREAD.
You're clearly bursting to.
Stop taking the piss.
Gives a whole new meaning to Churchill's dictum... "...I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma..."
Iceland's foreign minister defied the funereal dirge about Britain's future trade prospects coming from Remainers, as he offered some cool-headed pragmatism. "Everyone wants to have a free trade deal with Britain," he said, explaining:
"You're the fifth largest economy in the world. Everyone wants to sell you goods and services, it's just as simple as that."
Mr Thordarson's observation shouldn't be a surprise, as Remainers have worked hard to make out that Britain's trading potential relies on it being part enmeshed in the European Union.
Makes sense - there will never be a better time to dictate terms to the UK than now. Every country in the world knows how important it will be politically for the government to get some FTAs signed quickly. But, clearly, no-one will finalise anything until the final provisions of the deal with the EU are known.
Oh, yes ! Iceland ! That's what we have come down to. Quoting the foreign minister of a country with less population than London Boroughs of Barnet, Croydon or Ealing [ not put together ].
Iceland's foreign minister defied the funereal dirge about Britain's future trade prospects coming from Remainers, as he offered some cool-headed pragmatism. "Everyone wants to have a free trade deal with Britain," he said, explaining:
"You're the fifth largest economy in the world. Everyone wants to sell you goods and services, it's just as simple as that."
Mr Thordarson's observation shouldn't be a surprise, as Remainers have worked hard to make out that Britain's trading potential relies on it being part enmeshed in the European Union.
Makes sense - there will never be a better time to dictate terms to the UK than now. Every country in the world knows how important it will be politically for the government to get some FTAs signed quickly. But, clearly, no-one will finalise anything until the final provisions of the deal with the EU are known.
Yes they can really stiff us over by having free trade both ways.
How much is the import duty on Scotch whisky into Iceland ?
Iceland's foreign minister defied the funereal dirge about Britain's future trade prospects coming from Remainers, as he offered some cool-headed pragmatism. "Everyone wants to have a free trade deal with Britain," he said, explaining:
"You're the fifth largest economy in the world. Everyone wants to sell you goods and services, it's just as simple as that."
Mr Thordarson's observation shouldn't be a surprise, as Remainers have worked hard to make out that Britain's trading potential relies on it being part enmeshed in the European Union.
Makes sense - there will never be a better time to dictate terms to the UK than now. Every country in the world knows how important it will be politically for the government to get some FTAs signed quickly. But, clearly, no-one will finalise anything until the final provisions of the deal with the EU are known.
Yes they can really stiff us over by having free trade both ways.
How much is the import duty on Scotch whisky into Iceland ?
Iceland's foreign minister defied the funereal dirge about Britain's future trade prospects coming from Remainers, as he offered some cool-headed pragmatism. "Everyone wants to have a free trade deal with Britain," he said, explaining:
"You're the fifth largest economy in the world. Everyone wants to sell you goods and services, it's just as simple as that."
Mr Thordarson's observation shouldn't be a surprise, as Remainers have worked hard to make out that Britain's trading potential relies on it being part enmeshed in the European Union.
Makes sense - there will never be a better time to dictate terms to the UK than now. Every country in the world knows how important it will be politically for the government to get some FTAs signed quickly. But, clearly, no-one will finalise anything until the final provisions of the deal with the EU are known.
Oh, yes ! Iceland ! That's what we have come down to. Quoting the foreign minister of a country with less population than London Boroughs of Barnet, Croydon or Ealing [ not put together ].
Let's all laugh at tinpot countries, as Estonia takes over the EU Presidency from Malta.
Iceland's foreign minister defied the funereal dirge about Britain's future trade prospects coming from Remainers, as he offered some cool-headed pragmatism. "Everyone wants to have a free trade deal with Britain," he said, explaining:
"You're the fifth largest economy in the world. Everyone wants to sell you goods and services, it's just as simple as that."
Mr Thordarson's observation shouldn't be a surprise, as Remainers have worked hard to make out that Britain's trading potential relies on it being part enmeshed in the European Union.
Makes sense - there will never be a better time to dictate terms to the UK than now. Every country in the world knows how important it will be politically for the government to get some FTAs signed quickly. But, clearly, no-one will finalise anything until the final provisions of the deal with the EU are known.
Yes they can really stiff us over by having free trade both ways.
How much is the import duty on Scotch whisky into Iceland ?
No idea at all.
How much Scotch whisky can we actually sell to Iceland?
How many FTAs provide for untrammelled free trade in both directions?
Iceland's foreign minister defied the funereal dirge about Britain's future trade prospects coming from Remainers, as he offered some cool-headed pragmatism. "Everyone wants to have a free trade deal with Britain," he said, explaining:
"You're the fifth largest economy in the world. Everyone wants to sell you goods and services, it's just as simple as that."
Mr Thordarson's observation shouldn't be a surprise, as Remainers have worked hard to make out that Britain's trading potential relies on it being part enmeshed in the European Union.
Makes sense - there will never be a better time to dictate terms to the UK than now. Every country in the world knows how important it will be politically for the government to get some FTAs signed quickly. But, clearly, no-one will finalise anything until the final provisions of the deal with the EU are known.
Yes they can really stiff us over by having free trade both ways.
How much is the import duty on Scotch whisky into Iceland ?
Iceland's foreign minister defied the funereal dirge about Britain's future trade prospects coming from Remainers, as he offered some cool-headed pragmatism. "Everyone wants to have a free trade deal with Britain," he said, explaining:
"You're the fifth largest economy in the world. Everyone wants to sell you goods and services, it's just as simple as that."
Mr Thordarson's observation shouldn't be a surprise, as Remainers have worked hard to make out that Britain's trading potential relies on it being part enmeshed in the European Union.
Makes sense - there will never be a better time to dictate terms to the UK than now. Every country in the world knows how important it will be politically for the government to get some FTAs signed quickly. But, clearly, no-one will finalise anything until the final provisions of the deal with the EU are known.
Oh, yes ! Iceland ! That's what we have come down to. Quoting the foreign minister of a country with less population than London Boroughs of Barnet, Croydon or Ealing [ not put together ].
Mr Thordason has been around Icelandic politics forever and was part of the Haarde government that spectacularly bankrupted Iceland. I know you shouldn't play the man, but I don't think he is particularly qualified to advise.
Iceland's foreign minister defied the funereal dirge about Britain's future trade prospects coming from Remainers, as he offered some cool-headed pragmatism. "Everyone wants to have a free trade deal with Britain," he said, explaining:
"You're the fifth largest economy in the world. Everyone wants to sell you goods and services, it's just as simple as that."
Mr Thordarson's observation shouldn't be a surprise, as Remainers have worked hard to make out that Britain's trading potential relies on it being part enmeshed in the European Union.
Makes sense - there will never be a better time to dictate terms to the UK than now. Every country in the world knows how important it will be politically for the government to get some FTAs signed quickly. But, clearly, no-one will finalise anything until the final provisions of the deal with the EU are known.
Oh, yes ! Iceland ! That's what we have come down to. Quoting the foreign minister of a country with less population than London Boroughs of Barnet, Croydon or Ealing [ not put together ].
Let's all laugh at tinpot countries, as Estonia takes over the EU Presidency from Malta.
Both big parties are seemingly intent on veering to their extremes.
On the basis of that poll if JRM gets enough MPs to get to the membership the next general election will be Mogg v Corbyn. A return to the 1950s or the 1970s the choice is yours!
Both big parties are seemingly intent on veering to their extremes.
On the basis of that poll if JRM gets enough MPs to get to the membership the next general election will be Mogg v Corbyn. A return to the 1950s or the 1970s the choice is yours!
Iceland's foreign minister defied the funereal dirge about Britain's future trade prospects coming from Remainers, as he offered some cool-headed pragmatism. "Everyone wants to have a free trade deal with Britain," he said, explaining:
"You're the fifth largest economy in the world. Everyone wants to sell you goods and services, it's just as simple as that."
Mr Thordarson's observation shouldn't be a surprise, as Remainers have worked hard to make out that Britain's trading potential relies on it being part enmeshed in the European Union.
Makes sense - there will never be a better time to dictate terms to the UK than now. Every country in the world knows how important it will be politically for the government to get some FTAs signed quickly. But, clearly, no-one will finalise anything until the final provisions of the deal with the EU are known.
Oh, yes ! Iceland ! That's what we have come down to. Quoting the foreign minister of a country with less population than London Boroughs of Barnet, Croydon or Ealing [ not put together ].
Mr Thordason has been around Icelandic politics forever and was part of the Haarde government that spectacularly bankrupted Iceland. I know you shouldn't play the man, but I don't think he is particularly qualified to advise.
A Haarde man is good to find.
He was not found to be negligent by the Althing investigation of the crisis (when other ministers were).
Iceland's foreign minister defied the funereal dirge about Britain's future trade prospects coming from Remainers, as he offered some cool-headed pragmatism. "Everyone wants to have a free trade deal with Britain," he said, explaining:
"You're the fifth largest economy in the world. Everyone wants to sell you goods and services, it's just as simple as that."
Mr Thordarson's observation shouldn't be a surprise, as Remainers have worked hard to make out that Britain's trading potential relies on it being part enmeshed in the European Union.
Makes sense - there will never be a better time to dictate terms to the UK than now. Every country in the world knows how important it will be politically for the government to get some FTAs signed quickly. But, clearly, no-one will finalise anything until the final provisions of the deal with the EU are known.
Oh, yes ! Iceland ! That's what we have come down to. Quoting the foreign minister of a country with less population than London Boroughs of Barnet, Croydon or Ealing [ not put together ].
Both big parties are seemingly intent on veering to their extremes.
On the basis of that poll if JRM gets enough MPs to get to the membership the next general election will be Mogg v Corbyn. A return to the 1950s or the 1970s the choice is yours!
Both big parties are seemingly intent on veering to their extremes.
On the basis of that poll if JRM gets enough MPs to get to the membership the next general election will be Mogg v Corbyn. A return to the 1950s or the 1970s the choice is yours!
surely that's the 1750's in the case of Mogg.
Or even the 1550s (pre civil war and Glorious Revolution which were a bit too reformist for his tastes)
Both big parties are seemingly intent on veering to their extremes.
On the basis of that poll if JRM gets enough MPs to get to the membership the next general election will be Mogg v Corbyn. A return to the 1950s or the 1970s the choice is yours!
The Seventies were more fun, definitely!
Not if my mother is anything to go by, she almost got pneumonia waiting for a train in the late 1970s in the middle of winter because of strikes
Iceland's foreign minister defied the funereal dirge about Britain's future trade prospects coming from Remainers, as he offered some cool-headed pragmatism. "Everyone wants to have a free trade deal with Britain," he said, explaining:
"You're the fifth largest economy in the world. Everyone wants to sell you goods and services, it's just as simple as that."
Mr Thordarson's observation shouldn't be a surprise, as Remainers have worked hard to make out that Britain's trading potential relies on it being part enmeshed in the European Union.
Iceland's foreign minister defied the funereal dirge about Britain's future trade prospects coming from Remainers, as he offered some cool-headed pragmatism. "Everyone wants to have a free trade deal with Britain," he said, explaining:
"You're the fifth largest economy in the world. Everyone wants to sell you goods and services, it's just as simple as that."
Mr Thordarson's observation shouldn't be a surprise, as Remainers have worked hard to make out that Britain's trading potential relies on it being part enmeshed in the European Union.
Iceland's foreign minister defied the funereal dirge about Britain's future trade prospects coming from Remainers, as he offered some cool-headed pragmatism. "Everyone wants to have a free trade deal with Britain," he said, explaining:
"You're the fifth largest economy in the world. Everyone wants to sell you goods and services, it's just as simple as that."
Mr Thordarson's observation shouldn't be a surprise, as Remainers have worked hard to make out that Britain's trading potential relies on it being part enmeshed in the European Union.
These rankings are very deceptive. Our economy is less than 4% of global GDP.
Still bigger than India, Brazil, Australia, Indonesia, South Korea, Switzerland, Argentina, South Africa, Nigeria etc all of which are still independent nations
Comments
"Global Britain" isn't a choice now we have rejected EU membership.
If I was to rank productivity issues I'd rank it last out of:
1: The internet being a massive distracting time waster (how many post here while they're supposed to be working)?
2: Consciously choosing less productive (but better quality) options.
3: A lack of investment in machinery.
4: Education.
Maybe I too generously credited you with having more intelligence than you actually have.
Or perhaps we should blow it up?
Of course, that will pose other big challenges. Both for us domestically, but also for nations that currently export people.
Equally businesses don't necessarily want cheap competent labour. I may be the exception (but taking to my colleagues I'm not). What I want competent labour that allows me to make a profit its unlikely to be the cheapest...
https://twitter.com/verge/status/904628400748421122
However I think actually the rise of AI and automation may oddly enough sweep away centuries of assumptions of the importance of education etc - oddly enough we may end up in a situation with two big extremes with very few doing very highly technical jobs . . . and a lot of people in service jobs where a human touch is simply appreciated rather than being strictly necessary.
And I thought we were talking about the fruit pickers and baristas that was depressing the wages apparently of the less well-educated. Not some techno high-flyers who are employable anywhere.
And I must away now for a bit, team. Will read back and answer all the mad Brexiters on my return.
On your second one there is a reason why Lidl and Aldi pay more than the minimum wage.....
I asked if you had any evidence that education was our issue twice and both times you just make silly throw away remarks so I'm guessing no is the answer.
In 2015 Total trade with the EU was worth around £520 billion. At the same time total non EU trade was worth around £534 billion.
Scott is simply wrong.
Hillary and Bill is rather like May and Boris you are either a natural charismatic campaigner or you are not, it can't be taught
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-donald-trump-kompromat-nikita-isaev-new-russia-movement-state-tv-us-president-a7929966.html
A Russian politician has threatened to "hit Donald Trump with our Kompromat" on state TV.
Speaking on Russia-24, Nikita Isaev, leader of the far-right New Russia Movement, said the compromising material should be released in retaliation over the closure of several Russian diplomatic compounds across the US.
When asked whether Russia has such material, Mr Isaev, who is also director of the Russian Institute of Contemporary Economics, replied: "Of course we have it!”
I DON'T WANT TO WRITE THAT THREAD.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/01/15/want-to-bet-on-footage-of-that-golden-shower-appearing-on-a-porn-site-yes-wee-can/
Not in Kansas any more.. https://theskylive.com/voyager1-tracker only 19.34 light hours from home...
"You're the fifth largest economy in the world. Everyone wants to sell you goods and services, it's just as simple as that."
Mr Thordarson's observation shouldn't be a surprise, as Remainers have worked hard to make out that Britain's trading potential relies on it being part enmeshed in the European Union.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/05/iceland-has-exposed-remainers-gloom-wouldnt-want-trade-brexit/
https://mobile.twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/904993553511677952
"...I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma..."
JRM 22%
Davis 15%
Boris 7%
Raab 7%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/09/jacob-rees-mogg-tops-our-next-tory-leader-survey-of-conservative-opinion.html
How much is the import duty on Scotch whisky into Iceland ?
How much Scotch whisky can we actually sell to Iceland?
How many FTAs provide for untrammelled free trade in both directions?
https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/904616809772576768
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-mp-dismisses-malta-as-a-tiny-little-island_uk_5878bbc0e4b074eb45cd6ca5
https://twitter.com/SKalyvas/status/832208816410329089
He was not found to be negligent by the Althing investigation of the crisis (when other ministers were).
On the other had he is one of very few members of the Lords who was in care as a child, so perhaps brings something to that House. .
NEW THREAD