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Our survey. Over half of Party member respondents think May should quit as leader before 2022. https://t.co/jVsJ3RQYVy

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TheScreamingEagles

Primus inter pares.

The Times said Mrs May wants to make Boris party chairman.

TheScreamingEagles

If she's losing ConHome members then perhaps she's not so bad.

philiph

Even Boris wouldn't start a leadership bid against her in the next 15 months.

NickPalmer

Boris would clearly be a better fit as party chair than Foreign Secretary. But it would effectively signal the end of the idea that he can handle a Ministerial role - and, by implication, a Prime Ministerial role. In careerist terms he'd be better off resigning and active as loyal Brexit opposition, keeper of the flame, etc.

DavidL

The only way I see her leading the Tories into the next election is if the government were to fall quite soon and unexpectedly so that there was no chance to change things. And even then....

If the government remains in office (albeit not really in power) until 2022 she will not be the leader. At the moment that looks the most likely scenario to me but I can understand why Corbyn wants to believe otherwise.

Casino_Royale

It's hard to know what to think of May pulling out of that TV debate.

Had she gone, I think she'd have been outshone by Corbyn, and she might even have performed very poorly, and I'm not sure how that'd have been any better for her, since she'd have looked like she was being led by Corbyn in any event.

Charles

@Ishmael_Z FPT

I put it down to the vile 'flu that I am struggling with. It's why I'm on here not working.

Sean_F

FPT, London seats, I expect that the Conservatives would hold the crucial three in Barnet, plus Harrow East, given big Jewish and aspirational Hindu populations. I think that Westminster and City of London, Putney and Richmond would be very shaky.

One oddity of the London results is that Labour led the Conservatives by 55% to 33% this year, compared to 49% to 31% in 1997, but the Conservatives won twice as many seats as in 1997. This reflects the absolutely enormous votes won by Labour in places that are already safe for them.

philiph

DavidL said:

The only way I see her leading the Tories into the next election is if the government were to fall quite soon and unexpectedly so that there was no chance to change things. And even then....

If the government remains in office (albeit not really in power) until 2022 she will not be the leader. At the moment that looks the most likely scenario to me but I can understand why Corbyn wants to believe otherwise.

It is consistent with his relationship with reality over the last 45 years?

HYUFD

As the poll confirms most Tory members want May to stay for now but leave before 2022 after Brexit.

That would then clear the way for Boris or JRM to succeed her as suggested by Survation yesterday and call a general election in 2020
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4848070/Claims-25-Tory-MPs-want-out.html

DecrepitJohnL

TheScreamingEagles said:

Primus inter pares.

The Times said Mrs May wants to make Boris party chairman.

Who leaked it? Boris presumably, in which case he is staying at the Foreign Office. The PM can't sack anyone with more than a handful of backbench followers. She needs to find someone willing to be kicked upstairs.

DavidL

philiph said:

DavidL said:

The only way I see her leading the Tories into the next election is if the government were to fall quite soon and unexpectedly so that there was no chance to change things. And even then....

If the government remains in office (albeit not really in power) until 2022 she will not be the leader. At the moment that looks the most likely scenario to me but I can understand why Corbyn wants to believe otherwise.

It is consistent with his relationship with reality over the last 45 years?

Totally.

Sean_F

Casino_Royale said:

It's hard to know what to think of May pulling out of that TV debate.

Had she gone, I think she'd have been outshone by Corbyn, and she might even have performed very poorly, and I'm not sure how that'd have been any better for her, since she'd have looked like she was being led by Corbyn in any event.

It's better to take part and lose, than not to take part at all.

Sandpit

philiph said:

Even Boris wouldn't start a leadership bid against her in the next 15 months.

She's safe until Brexit is sorted, right now there's no obvious single successor and a full contest in the middle of the Brexit negotiations isn't going to happen as no-one is going to want such a politically difficult job that has a high short-term risk attached.

I reckon May offers her resignation in the summer of 2019, for a long contest over the summer (as happened in 2005) and the new PM being in place by conference season. Election probably pencilled in for spring 2020.

DavidL

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

It's hard to know what to think of May pulling out of that TV debate.

Had she gone, I think she'd have been outshone by Corbyn, and she might even have performed very poorly, and I'm not sure how that'd have been any better for her, since she'd have looked like she was being led by Corbyn in any event.

It's better to take part and lose, than not to take part at all.

I think that is the lesson of 2017. We now have leadership debates come what may (sorry).

HYUFD

Sean_F said:

FPT, London seats, I expect that the Conservatives would hold the crucial three in Barnet, plus Harrow East, given big Jewish and aspirational Hindu populations. I think that Westminster and City of London, Putney and Richmond would be very shaky.

One oddity of the London results is that Labour led the Conservatives by 55% to 33% this year, compared to 49% to 31% in 1997, but the Conservatives won twice as many seats as in 1997. This reflects the absolutely enormous votes won by Labour in places that are already safe for them.

Or more to the point London is now a safe Labour city apart from a few suburban parts and some of the wealthiest bits of the inner city

By contrast the Tories won more seats than Labour in the Midlands and Scotland in total contrast to 1997 while Labour did not win a single seat in Essex either

philiph

Sandpit said:

philiph said:

Even Boris wouldn't start a leadership bid against her in the next 15 months.

She's safe until Brexit is sorted, right now there's no obvious single successor and a full contest in the middle of the Brexit negotiations isn't going to happen as no-one is going to want such a politically difficult job that has a high short-term risk attached.

I reckon May offers her resignation in the summer of 2019, for a long contest over the summer (as happened in 2005) and the new PM being in place by conference season. Election probably pencilled in for spring 2020.

There is only one problem with this scenario.

It is eminently sensible, obvious that TM can not lead into the next election.

The problem? As it is sensible the chances of it occurring in the Tory party are minimal - they give the impression that they are better at self destructive regicide than successful regicide these days.

Sean_F

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

FPT, London seats, I expect that the Conservatives would hold the crucial three in Barnet, plus Harrow East, given big Jewish and aspirational Hindu populations. I think that Westminster and City of London, Putney and Richmond would be very shaky.

One oddity of the London results is that Labour led the Conservatives by 55% to 33% this year, compared to 49% to 31% in 1997, but the Conservatives won twice as many seats as in 1997. This reflects the absolutely enormous votes won by Labour in places that are already safe for them.

Or more to the point London is now a safe Labour city apart from a few suburban parts and some of the wealthiest bits of the inner city

By contrast the Tories won more seats than Labour in the Midlands and Scotland in total contrast to 1997 while Labour did not win a single seat in Essex either

The size of the Labour vote in places like Haringey, Islington, Newham, Hackney is staggering.

GIN1138

Looks like the situation is as it was since June - Theresa stays as PM for now (to oversee Brexit) but leaves before 2022?

Nothing is changing anytime soon.

Wonder what would happen to Theresa if WWIII broke out?

FF43

Casino_Royale said:

It's hard to know what to think of May pulling out of that TV debate.

Had she gone, I think she'd have been outshone by Corbyn, and she might even have performed very poorly, and I'm not sure how that'd have been any better for her, since she'd have looked like she was being led by Corbyn in any event.

If you don't attend a public debate you (1) have something to hide or (2) you are taking the public for granted. Neither is a good look for a candidate. In Mrs May's case it was a bit of both.

619

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

It's hard to know what to think of May pulling out of that TV debate.

Had she gone, I think she'd have been outshone by Corbyn, and she might even have performed very poorly, and I'm not sure how that'd have been any better for her, since she'd have looked like she was being led by Corbyn in any event.

It's better to take part and lose, than not to take part at all.

It fed into the 'avoiding the electorate' and 'arrogantly taking the electorate for granted' way she conducted the last campaign. If she had done something to arrest those perceptions, it would have helped.

philiph

There is still so much that is not understood about 2017 election.

How much of the vote follows a positive campaign - not JC or Labour but the positive message?
How much follows the 'free' we can afford to give it to you message?
How much, if at all, of the Tory vote was lost as it was a big majority or landslide. Nailed On.?
How many votes did Momentum add to Labour with campaign effort and ground game?
What did Brexit do to votes?
How different was 2017 from 2015, 2010 or 2020 - 22? And why?

philiph

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:

It's hard to know what to think of May pulling out of that TV debate.

Had she gone, I think she'd have been outshone by Corbyn, and she might even have performed very poorly, and I'm not sure how that'd have been any better for her, since she'd have looked like she was being led by Corbyn in any event.

If you don't attend a public debate you (1) have something to hide or (2) you are taking the public for granted. Neither is a good look for a candidate. In Mrs May's case it was a bit of both.

But Dave managed it?

HYUFD

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

FPT, London seats, I expect that the Conservatives would hold the crucial three in Barnet, plus Harrow East, given big Jewish and aspirational Hindu populations. I think that Westminster and City of London, Putney and Richmond would be very shaky.

One oddity of the London results is that Labour led the Conservatives by 55% to 33% this year, compared to 49% to 31% in 1997, but the Conservatives won twice as many seats as in 1997. This reflects the absolutely enormous votes won by Labour in places that are already safe for them.

Or more to the point London is now a safe Labour city apart from a few suburban parts and some of the wealthiest bits of the inner city

By contrast the Tories won more seats than Labour in the Midlands and Scotland in total contrast to 1997 while Labour did not win a single seat in Essex either

The size of the Labour vote in places like Haringey, Islington, Newham, Hackney is staggering.

Yes the increased ethnic minority population in London, the movement of many of the white working class and lower middle class to Kent and Essex and the fact most Londoners rent have all boosted the Labour vote there

FF43

Having seen part of the David Davis' interview with Andrew Marr, I wonder how much he is enjoying the job. He seems slightly hysterical, rather than projecting the calm confidence he is clearly aiming for. The main takeaway is that he is under time pressures and he is trying to stall.

TOPPING

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:

It's hard to know what to think of May pulling out of that TV debate.

Had she gone, I think she'd have been outshone by Corbyn, and she might even have performed very poorly, and I'm not sure how that'd have been any better for her, since she'd have looked like she was being led by Corbyn in any event.

If you don't attend a public debate you (1) have something to hide or (2) you are taking the public for granted. Neither is a good look for a candidate. In Mrs May's case it was a bit of both.

3) you are frit

Richard_Nabavi

Boris would be a headache for Theresa May even if she wasn't in a precarious position herself. What to do about him? His performance as Foreign Secretary might charitably be described as in line with expectations; certainly he has only confirmed the widespread doubts about his seriousness. A powerful party leader would by now have called his bluff, but we don't have a powerful party leader. Meanwhile we could do with a Foreign Secretary who is not regarded as a joke or worse by the EU governments we need to do a deal with, and we could also do with a reshuffle which allows some new talent room to develop.

Go for it, Mrs May. I really don't think you've got much to lose at this stage.

Nigelb

TOPPING said:

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:

It's hard to know what to think of May pulling out of that TV debate.

Had she gone, I think she'd have been outshone by Corbyn, and she might even have performed very poorly, and I'm not sure how that'd have been any better for her, since she'd have looked like she was being led by Corbyn in any event.

If you don't attend a public debate you (1) have something to hide or (2) you are taking the public for granted. Neither is a good look for a candidate. In Mrs May's case it was a bit of both.

3) you are frit

In the words of a political musical I can thoroughly recommend...
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don't get a win unless you play in the game...

williamglenn

FF43 said:

Having seen part of the David Davis' interview with Andrew Marr, I wonder how much he is enjoying the job. He seems slightly hysterical, rather than projecting the calm confidence he is clearly aiming for. The main takeaway is that he is under time pressures and he is trying to stall.

That's what I thought too. It looked like a classic display of someone under pressure becoming a self-parody.

Ishmael_Z

Charles said:

@Ishmael_Z FPT

I put it down to the vile 'flu that I am struggling with. It's why I'm on here not working.

Sorry to hear that.

What a result, GB 1 2 3 and 4 in a sport far more important than any ball related activity.

The other good but was that either Mark Todd or Andrew Nicholson was in the commentary box on Saturday and was asked what do you think of the positions in the bottom half of this list and said sorry, I can't read it without my glasses. Pretty cool to be old enough to say that (they are 56 and 61 respectively) and still at the absolute top of a white knuckle sport.

FF43

philiph said:

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:

It's hard to know what to think of May pulling out of that TV debate.

Had she gone, I think she'd have been outshone by Corbyn, and she might even have performed very poorly, and I'm not sure how that'd have been any better for her, since she'd have looked like she was being led by Corbyn in any event.

If you don't attend a public debate you (1) have something to hide or (2) you are taking the public for granted. Neither is a good look for a candidate. In Mrs May's case it was a bit of both.

But Dave managed it?

True. Cameron got away with it and that undoubtedly encouraged May to do the same. Thing is, Milliband is a poor public speaker while Corbyn turned out to be surprisingly good, while May, we know, is hopeless and Cameron can be good on his on-days.

HYUFD

Richard_Nabavi said:

Boris would be a headache for Theresa May even if she wasn't in a precarious position herself. What to do about him? His performance as Foreign Secretary might charitably be described as in line with expectations; certainly he has only confirmed the widespread doubts about his seriousness. A powerful party leader would by now have called his bluff, but we don't have a powerful party leader. Meanwhile we could do with a Foreign Secretary who is not regarded as a joke or worse by the EU governments we need to do a deal with, and we could also do with a reshuffle which allows some new talent room to develop.

Go for it, Mrs May. I really don't think you've got much to lose at this stage.

Given Boris leads the polls with the public and Tories though to succeed May she cannot sack him, party chairman plus DPM is as far as she can go.

Personally I would keep him in post, he had a successful visit to Nigeria last week and Hunt would be more effective as party chairman in driving through the changes needed before the next election

FF43

Richard_Nabavi said:

Boris would be a headache for Theresa May even if she wasn't in a precarious position herself. What to do about him? His performance as Foreign Secretary might charitably be described as in line with expectations; certainly he has only confirmed the widespread doubts about his seriousness. A powerful party leader would by now have called his bluff, but we don't have a powerful party leader. Meanwhile we could do with a Foreign Secretary who is not regarded as a joke or worse by the EU governments we need to do a deal with, and we could also do with a reshuffle which allows some new talent room to develop.

Go for it, Mrs May. I really don't think you've got much to lose at this stage.

Impeccable logic. We might as well have a Foreign Minister that promotes our interests rather than actively sabotaging them and Boris will plot anyway.

philiph

williamglenn said:

FF43 said:

Having seen part of the David Davis' interview with Andrew Marr, I wonder how much he is enjoying the job. He seems slightly hysterical, rather than projecting the calm confidence he is clearly aiming for. The main takeaway is that he is under time pressures and he is trying to stall.

That's what I thought too. It looked like a classic display of someone under pressure becoming a self-parody.

Has he ever been a good TV performer / interviewee?

I thought it was one of the reasons he lost to DC in the leadership contest years ago.

AlastairMeeks

Theresa May needs to do something that will make the public revise the opinion that they've already formed of her. Since the opinion that they've formed of her is that she's too awkward, slow-thinking and out-of-touch, it's going to need to be pretty spectacular.

Nigelb

AlastairMeeks said:

Theresa May needs to do something that will make the public revise the opinion that they've already formed of her. Since the opinion that they've formed of her is that she's too awkward, slow-thinking and out-of-touch, it's going to need to be pretty spectacular.

I'm afraid Strictly is out of the question.

Richard_Tyndall

AlastairMeeks said:

Theresa May needs to do something that will make the public revise the opinion that they've already formed of her. Since the opinion that they've formed of her is that she's too awkward, slow-thinking and out-of-touch, it's going to need to be pretty spectacular.

I don't think it is possible as I believe the public perception of her is accurate.

AlastairMeeks

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Theresa May needs to do something that will make the public revise the opinion that they've already formed of her. Since the opinion that they've formed of her is that she's too awkward, slow-thinking and out-of-touch, it's going to need to be pretty spectacular.

I don't think it is possible as I believe the public perception of her is accurate.

One of those rare occasions where I agree with you!

AlastairMeeks

Nigelb said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Theresa May needs to do something that will make the public revise the opinion that they've already formed of her. Since the opinion that they've formed of her is that she's too awkward, slow-thinking and out-of-touch, it's going to need to be pretty spectacular.

I'm afraid Strictly is out of the question.

Great British Bake Off is more Mrs May's style, I'd have thought.

SouthamObserver

williamglenn said:

FF43 said:

Having seen part of the David Davis' interview with Andrew Marr, I wonder how much he is enjoying the job. He seems slightly hysterical, rather than projecting the calm confidence he is clearly aiming for. The main takeaway is that he is under time pressures and he is trying to stall.

That's what I thought too. It looked like a classic display of someone under pressure becoming a self-parody.

The Minister for Winging It.

He had years to learn how the EU works, how complex it would be to leave and what drives FTAs, but he could not be bothered to put in the effort.

philiph

AlastairMeeks said:

Theresa May needs to do something that will make the public revise the opinion that they've already formed of her. Since the opinion that they've formed of her is that she's too awkward, slow-thinking and out-of-touch, it's going to need to be pretty spectacular.

Resign at the end of the Brexit negotiations? That might show some self awareness and humility. Before then the cupboard looks bare!

MikeSmithson

On the TV debate JC only confirmed that he would be the LAB rep the day before. If May had gone it would have looked as though she was dancing to Corbyn's tune. Also these things require a huge amount of preparation which I assume she had not had. The decision on the day was probably the right one.

surbiton

Sandpit said:

philiph said:

Even Boris wouldn't start a leadership bid against her in the next 15 months.

She's safe until Brexit is sorted, right now there's no obvious single successor and a full contest in the middle of the Brexit negotiations isn't going to happen as no-one is going to want such a politically difficult job that has a high short-term risk attached.

I reckon May offers her resignation in the summer of 2019, for a long contest over the summer (as happened in 2005) and the new PM being in place by conference season. Election probably pencilled in for spring 2020.

Why should she ? She is like anyone else who wants to be PM.

SouthamObserver

HYUFD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Boris would be a headache for Theresa May even if she wasn't in a precarious position herself. What to do about him? His performance as Foreign Secretary might charitably be described as in line with expectations; certainly he has only confirmed the widespread doubts about his seriousness. A powerful party leader would by now have called his bluff, but we don't have a powerful party leader. Meanwhile we could do with a Foreign Secretary who is not regarded as a joke or worse by the EU governments we need to do a deal with, and we could also do with a reshuffle which allows some new talent room to develop.

Go for it, Mrs May. I really don't think you've got much to lose at this stage.

Given Boris leads the polls with the public and Tories though to succeed May she cannot sack him, party chairman plus DPM is as far as she can go.

Personally I would keep him in post, he had a successful visit to Nigeria last week and Hunt would be more effective as party chairman in driving through the changes needed before the next election

Agreed. The idea that Mrs May might put the country first by appointing a competent foreign secretary is ridiculous.

TheScreamingEagles

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Primus inter pares.

The Times said Mrs May wants to make Boris party chairman.

Who leaked it? Boris presumably, in which case he is staying at the Foreign Office. The PM can't sack anyone with more than a handful of backbench followers. She needs to find someone willing to be kicked upstairs.

Team May, as it said Sir Patrick was planning on standing down as Party Chairman, and only stayed on after the election to provide stability.

Richard_Tyndall

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Theresa May needs to do something that will make the public revise the opinion that they've already formed of her. Since the opinion that they've formed of her is that she's too awkward, slow-thinking and out-of-touch, it's going to need to be pretty spectacular.

I don't think it is possible as I believe the public perception of her is accurate.

One of those rare occasions where I agree with you!

We agree on far more things than you could ever imagine Alastair.

619

MikeSmithson said:

On the TV debate JC only confirmed that he would be the LAB rep the day before. If May had gone it would have looked as though she was dancing to Corbyn's tune. Also these things require a huge amount of preparation which I assume she had not had. The decision on the day was probably the right one.

Corbyn said no previously because May had said no though, and always said he would have said yes if she had agreed to do it, She should have agreed to it much before.

In retrospect, he was always going to go to it to make May look bad. And it worked.

surbiton

SouthamObserver said:

williamglenn said:

FF43 said:

Having seen part of the David Davis' interview with Andrew Marr, I wonder how much he is enjoying the job. He seems slightly hysterical, rather than projecting the calm confidence he is clearly aiming for. The main takeaway is that he is under time pressures and he is trying to stall.

That's what I thought too. It looked like a classic display of someone under pressure becoming a self-parody.

The Minister for Winging It.

He had years to learn how the EU works, how complex it would be to leave and what drives FTAs, but he could not be bothered to put in the effort.

There seems to be quite a few Tory cabinet ministers who don't do detail. Cameron was another one. But then you have May herself and spreadsheet Phil who have the reputation for detail.

Charles

Richard_Nabavi said:

Boris would be a headache for Theresa May even if she wasn't in a precarious position herself. What to do about him? His performance as Foreign Secretary might charitably be described as in line with expectations; certainly he has only confirmed the widespread doubts about his seriousness. A powerful party leader would by now have called his bluff, but we don't have a powerful party leader. Meanwhile we could do with a Foreign Secretary who is not regarded as a joke or worse by the EU governments we need to do a deal with, and we could also do with a reshuffle which allows some new talent room to develop.

Go for it, Mrs May. I really don't think you've got much to lose at this stage.

I haven't been paying much attention, but has he done anything majorly wrong vs not really getting a grip on the role (especially as the major issue - Brexit - has been carved out, and, inevitability, in a Pacific War we are bit players).

If Boris is as self-aware as some of his supporters claim, standing down to become Party Chairman with an air of studied neutrality and helping groom the next generation could be an interesting role (and position him for a behind the scenes role) vs being a failed leadership candidate

FF43

philiph said:

williamglenn said:

FF43 said:

Having seen part of the David Davis' interview with Andrew Marr, I wonder how much he is enjoying the job. He seems slightly hysterical, rather than projecting the calm confidence he is clearly aiming for. The main takeaway is that he is under time pressures and he is trying to stall.

That's what I thought too. It looked like a classic display of someone under pressure becoming a self-parody.

Has he ever been a good TV performer / interviewee?

I thought it was one of the reasons he lost to DC in the leadership contest years ago.

I suppose the issue, regardless of how well Davis negotiates, is that he will have to sell the result to the public. He won't inspire confidence if that interview is a guide. I thought the original idea was to put Boris Johnson into a sinecure at the FO on the understanding that he would use his charm to sell the Brexit deal. He seems to have no intention of doing that (or indeed anything that he is employed to do).

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/904697591060979712

HYUFD

FF43 said:

philiph said:

williamglenn said:

FF43 said:

Having seen part of the David Davis' interview with Andrew Marr, I wonder how much he is enjoying the job. He seems slightly hysterical, rather than projecting the calm confidence he is clearly aiming for. The main takeaway is that he is under time pressures and he is trying to stall.

That's what I thought too. It looked like a classic display of someone under pressure becoming a self-parody.

Has he ever been a good TV performer / interviewee?

I thought it was one of the reasons he lost to DC in the leadership contest years ago.

I suppose the issue, regardless of how well Davis negotiates, is that he will have to sell the result to the public. He won't inspire confidence if that interview is a guide. I thought the original idea was to put Boris Johnson into a sinecure at the FO on the understanding that he would use his charm to sell the Brexit deal. He seems to have no intention of doing that (or indeed anything that he is employed to do).

Boris will likely be leading the party and the country shortly after Brexit is completed so will be doing plenty of selling then

PClipp

AlastairMeeks said:

Nigelb said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Theresa May needs to do something that will make the public revise the opinion that they've already formed of her. Since the opinion that they've formed of her is that she's too awkward, slow-thinking and out-of-touch, it's going to need to be pretty spectacular.

I'm afraid Strictly is out of the question.

Great British Bake Off is more Mrs May's style, I'd have thought.

Great British Sell Off, perhaps. Or even Great British Give Away.

Charles

HYUFD said:

FF43 said:

philiph said:

williamglenn said:

FF43 said:

Having seen part of the David Davis' interview with Andrew Marr, I wonder how much he is enjoying the job. He seems slightly hysterical, rather than projecting the calm confidence he is clearly aiming for. The main takeaway is that he is under time pressures and he is trying to stall.

That's what I thought too. It looked like a classic display of someone under pressure becoming a self-parody.

Has he ever been a good TV performer / interviewee?

I thought it was one of the reasons he lost to DC in the leadership contest years ago.

I suppose the issue, regardless of how well Davis negotiates, is that he will have to sell the result to the public. He won't inspire confidence if that interview is a guide. I thought the original idea was to put Boris Johnson into a sinecure at the FO on the understanding that he would use his charm to sell the Brexit deal. He seems to have no intention of doing that (or indeed anything that he is employed to do).

Boris will likely be leading the party and the country shortly after Brexit is completed so will be doing plenty of selling then

Ok, I'll bite. What do you want to bet, on what odds?

Luckyguy1983

AlastairMeeks said:

Theresa May needs to do something that will make the public revise the opinion that they've already formed of her. Since the opinion that they've formed of her is that she's too awkward, slow-thinking and out-of-touch, it's going to need to be pretty spectacular.

As a marketer, I have to disagree. A good marketer does not try to change opinions, they work with the grain of opinion to sell a product. So what actually needs to happen is that situations must arise whereby being awkward, slow-thinking and out of touch are shown in a good light. As being 'real', thinking deeply before making a decision, and not being a slave to prevaling trends. The prospect of this is unlikely, but not impossible.

chrisoxon

MikeSmithson said:

On the TV debate JC only confirmed that he would be the LAB rep the day before. If May had gone it would have looked as though she was dancing to Corbyn's tune. Also these things require a huge amount of preparation which I assume she had not had. The decision on the day was probably the right one.

The issue was compounded by offering Amber Rudd for debate. If you're going to boycott a debate you don't send a substitute. As soon as they announced that Rudd was going to attend you could tell it was going to be a disaster and that she'd be rounded on for being there in place of a "chicken".

Luckyguy1983

Dupe

Richard_Nabavi

Luckyguy1983 said:

As a marketer, I have to disagree. A good marketer does not try to change opinions, they work with the grain of opinion to sell a product. So what actually needs to happen is that situations must arise whereby being awkward, slow-thinking and out of touch are shown in a good light. As being 'real', thinking deeply before making a decision, and not being a slave to prevaling trends. The prospect of this is unlikely, but not impossible.

The irony is that she threw away a position which did suit her perceived talents: holding the ship steady while Brexit was negotiated.

Luckyguy1983

chrisoxon said:

MikeSmithson said:

On the TV debate JC only confirmed that he would be the LAB rep the day before. If May had gone it would have looked as though she was dancing to Corbyn's tune. Also these things require a huge amount of preparation which I assume she had not had. The decision on the day was probably the right one.

The issue was compounded by offering Amber Rudd for debate. If you're going to boycott a debate you don't send a substitute. As soon as they announced that Rudd was going to attend you could tell it was going to be a disaster and that she'd be rounded on for being there in place of a "chicken".

It could only have worked if she'd been doing something very impactful instead.

Luckyguy1983

Richard_Nabavi said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

As a marketer, I have to disagree. A good marketer does not try to change opinions, they work with the grain of opinion to sell a product. So what actually needs to happen is that situations must arise whereby being awkward, slow-thinking and out of touch are shown in a good light. As being 'real', thinking deeply before making a decision, and not being a slave to prevaling trends. The prospect of this is unlikely, but not impossible.

The irony is that she threw away a position which did suit her perceived talents: holding the ship steady while Brexit was negotiated.

Yes. Which makes it quite hard to see her getting it back.

CarlottaVance

TheScreamingEagles said:

If she's losing ConHome members then perhaps she's not so bad.

Not so long ago it was called UKIPHome....

Nigelb

TheScreamingEagles said:

If she's losing ConHome members then perhaps she's not so bad.

If she's losing *even* ConHome members, then she's not going to lead the Tories into the next election.

CarlottaVance

Point of clarification- is it a poll of CONHome members or Conservative members? The two are not the same....

geoffw

CarlottaVance said:

Point of clarification- is it a poll of CONHome members or Conservative members? The two are not the same....

"Our survey. Over half of Party member respondents think May should quit as leader before 2022."

TheScreamingEagles

CarlottaVance said:

Point of clarification- is it a poll of CONHome members or Conservative members? The two are not the same....

ConHome readers who are Conservative members.

AlastairMeeks

TheScreamingEagles said:

If she's losing ConHome members then perhaps she's not so bad.

https://tinyurl.com/y9ta3f3a

TheScreamingEagles

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If she's losing ConHome members then perhaps she's not so bad.

https://tinyurl.com/y9ta3f3a

Brilliant, I'm so using that in a future thread header.

williamglenn

A good piece on the German debate yesterday - https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-04/germany-s-boring-politics-are-a-sign-of-rare-strength

surbiton

geoffw said:

CarlottaVance said:

Point of clarification- is it a poll of CONHome members or Conservative members? The two are not the same....

"Our survey. Over half of Party member respondents think May should quit as leader before 2022."

I think she should lead the Tories in the next general election.

CarlottaVance

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

Point of clarification- is it a poll of CONHome members or Conservative members? The two are not the same....

ConHome readers who are Conservative members.

Thanks. So quite likely an unrepresentative sample. Representative of what goodness only knows.

DavidL

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If she's losing ConHome members then perhaps she's not so bad.

https://tinyurl.com/y9ta3f3a

LOL.

Jonathan

May is dead. It's only a question of how much damage they let her do to the country and her party from this state of inertia.

rkrkrk

williamglenn said:

A good piece on the German debate yesterday - https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-04/germany-s-boring-politics-are-a-sign-of-rare-strength

Interesting read - thanks. Doesn't sound like Brexit was a big topic of discussion.
I suppose that's not surprising... if say Spain was leaving - would we spend a long time discussing it? Probably not.... (Sexit? Spexit?)

MalcolmDunn

Not sure why the several posters here seem to dislike Conhome posters. The surveys tend to generate pretty accurate assessments of what happens in the party. Theresa May is going to have to show that she deserves the confidence of members.

rottenborough

Just reading the words "when IDS beat Ken Clarke" shows how far, and for how long, the Tories have lost their bearings completely thanks to the eurosceptic virus.

williamglenn

rkrkrk said:

if say Spain was leaving - would we spend a long time discussing it? Probably not.... (Sexit? Spexit?)

Something like that would probably have been the dream scenario for British Eurosceptics, even if it were only a small country like Malta leaving. They would have been able to agitate either for the UK to leave too, or to break the united front of the remaining EU.

chrisoxon

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

Point of clarification- is it a poll of CONHome members or Conservative members? The two are not the same....

ConHome readers who are Conservative members.

Thanks. So quite likely an unrepresentative sample. Representative of what goodness only knows.

The panel was within MOE of the 2005 leadership election result, and its findings on other issues have normally mirrored the results of polls conducted by pollsters. I wouldn't hold it up as unquestionable, but it is a lot more accurate than voodoo polls from local newspapers.

DavidL

Jonathan said:

May is dead. It's only a question of how much damage they let her do to the country and her party from this state of inertia.

This is the kind of discriminatory objectification against zombies up with we should not put.

rottenborough

No chance of any leadership challenge this autumn if there is major military action or even full war in Korea.

AlastairMeeks

rottenborough said:

No chance of any leadership challenge this autumn if there is major military action or even full war in Korea.

Why? We've changed Prime Minister in both World Wars and indeed in the run up to the first Gulf War.

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Borough, you could equally blame Clarke for his ridiculous desire to join the single currency.

david_herdson

On topic, I wouldn't be entirely sure that the decision will be referred to the party membership. If the Tories were in opposition then it would definitely go there (the Howard example was very much the exception in that instance), but in government there's a case to be made that the Magic Circle operates, if it can.

That, however, assumes that either one candidate is head and shoulders above the rest, which isn't currently the case, or that there is sufficient collegiality for other runners and riders to withdraw once a consensus is reached - which is a big but not impossible ask.

On balance, the likelihood is that a vote will go to the members but it's far from a certainty.

One thing I don't expect is a 'challenge' from Boris. Firstly, individuals can't challenge, as such - though they can lead calls for a VoNC, making it clear what they want the outcome to be (but crucially, while other MPs might go along with the Vote, they're not then obliged to stick with the challenger who'd by then be tainted with disloyalty, without the countering effect of the momentum a challenger had under the old rules). Besides, does Boris actually have all that many supporters these days?

Roger

Very rare that there is such unanimity on anything let alone leadership candidates but by my reckoning only Carlotta and me would like to see TM fighting the next election.

DavidL

Roger said:

Very rare that there is such unanimity on anything let alone leadership candidates but by my reckoning only Carlotta and me would like to see TM fighting the next election.

I think Surbiton was also in favour.

But I question his motives.

chrisoxon

david_herdson said:

On topic, I wouldn't be entirely sure that the decision will be referred to the party membership. If the Tories were in opposition then it would definitely go there (the Howard example was very much the exception in that instance), but in government there's a case to be made that the Magic Circle operates, if it can.

That, however, assumes that either one candidate is head and shoulders above the rest, which isn't currently the case, or that there is sufficient collegiality for other runners and riders to withdraw once a consensus is reached - which is a big but not impossible ask.

On balance, the likelihood is that a vote will go to the members but it's far from a certainty.

One thing I don't expect is a 'challenge' from Boris. Firstly, individuals can't challenge, as such - though they can lead calls for a VoNC, making it clear what they want the outcome to be (but crucially, while other MPs might go along with the Vote, they're not then obliged to stick with the challenger who'd by then be tainted with disloyalty, without the countering effect of the momentum a challenger had under the old rules). Besides, does Boris actually have all that many supporters these days?

I can't see it happening, the prize is simply too great, and it takes only a few MPs to get a challenger on the ballot. I think you'd see Peter Bone or Chris Chope getting themselves nominated to avoid a coronation, serving as a pre-emptive stalking horse to encourage a viable candidate to throw their hat in the ring.

OldKingCole

AlastairMeeks said:

rottenborough said:

No chance of any leadership challenge this autumn if there is major military action or even full war in Korea.

Why? We've changed Prime Minister in both World Wars and indeed in the run up to the first Gulf War.

A ‘full war’ in Korea won’t last long enough for anything much else to happen!

Casino_Royale

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

FPT, London seats, I expect that the Conservatives would hold the crucial three in Barnet, plus Harrow East, given big Jewish and aspirational Hindu populations. I think that Westminster and City of London, Putney and Richmond would be very shaky.

One oddity of the London results is that Labour led the Conservatives by 55% to 33% this year, compared to 49% to 31% in 1997, but the Conservatives won twice as many seats as in 1997. This reflects the absolutely enormous votes won by Labour in places that are already safe for them.

Or more to the point London is now a safe Labour city apart from a few suburban parts and some of the wealthiest bits of the inner city

By contrast the Tories won more seats than Labour in the Midlands and Scotland in total contrast to 1997 while Labour did not win a single seat in Essex either

My experience of my friends (at least four examples, all Russell Group university group graduates) is that they've all moved to the list since graduating, 15 years ago.

By that I mean: internationalist, pro-identity politics and pro-higher tax/public spending.

They all started as Conservatives. But, crucially, they all live in or very close to London.

CarlottaVance

DavidL said:

Roger said:

Very rare that there is such unanimity on anything let alone leadership candidates but by my reckoning only Carlotta and me would like to see TM fighting the next election.

I think Surbiton was also in favour.

But I question his motives.

And I expect May to step down in 2019.....Roger, finger on the pulse!

Casino_Royale

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:

It's hard to know what to think of May pulling out of that TV debate.

Had she gone, I think she'd have been outshone by Corbyn, and she might even have performed very poorly, and I'm not sure how that'd have been any better for her, since she'd have looked like she was being led by Corbyn in any event.

If you don't attend a public debate you (1) have something to hide or (2) you are taking the public for granted. Neither is a good look for a candidate. In Mrs May's case it was a bit of both.

Corbyn called her bluff, and she folded.

It was a snide move by him, but, she should have anticipated it.

JohnO

Assuming Theresa May survives party conference unscathed (I think she will) then she must conduct an extensive Ministerial reshuffle: she will be strong enough to do so.

Inter alia, this is what she should do. Sack around three Cabinet members, namely Johnson (or offer him a minor Department, which he will likely refuse), Truss and Leadsom. Jeremy Hunt should become Foreign Secretary. Esther McVeigh, Brandon Lewis, Anne Milton and Dominic Raab should join the cabinet. Rees-Mogg should be appointed a Minister of State in a middle ranking ministry.

Johnny Mercer and Tom Tugendhat should also go from the backbenches straight to Minister of State rank.

Three or four years from now, we should at last have a cadre of credible candidates for Prime Minister for the 2022 election.

Members of Political Betting, Other appointments will be laid before you.

But change has to happen now!

Casino_Royale

Richard_Nabavi said:

Boris would be a headache for Theresa May even if she wasn't in a precarious position herself. What to do about him? His performance as Foreign Secretary might charitably be described as in line with expectations; certainly he has only confirmed the widespread doubts about his seriousness. A powerful party leader would by now have called his bluff, but we don't have a powerful party leader. Meanwhile we could do with a Foreign Secretary who is not regarded as a joke or worse by the EU governments we need to do a deal with, and we could also do with a reshuffle which allows some new talent room to develop.

Go for it, Mrs May. I really don't think you've got much to lose at this stage.

We really dodged a bullet with Boris.

Can you imagine him as PM?

By contrast, I still wonder (with interest) what Michael Gove as PM might have been like.

It certainly wouldn't have been dull or lazy.

AlastairMeeks

chrisoxon said:

david_herdson said:

On topic, I wouldn't be entirely sure that the decision will be referred to the party membership. If the Tories were in opposition then it would definitely go there (the Howard example was very much the exception in that instance), but in government there's a case to be made that the Magic Circle operates, if it can.

That, however, assumes that either one candidate is head and shoulders above the rest, which isn't currently the case, or that there is sufficient collegiality for other runners and riders to withdraw once a consensus is reached - which is a big but not impossible ask.

On balance, the likelihood is that a vote will go to the members but it's far from a certainty.

One thing I don't expect is a 'challenge' from Boris. Firstly, individuals can't challenge, as such - though they can lead calls for a VoNC, making it clear what they want the outcome to be (but crucially, while other MPs might go along with the Vote, they're not then obliged to stick with the challenger who'd by then be tainted with disloyalty, without the countering effect of the momentum a challenger had under the old rules). Besides, does Boris actually have all that many supporters these days?

I can't see it happening, the prize is simply too great, and it takes only a few MPs to get a challenger on the ballot. I think you'd see Peter Bone or Chris Chope getting themselves nominated to avoid a coronation, serving as a pre-emptive stalking horse to encourage a viable candidate to throw their hat in the ring.

The Conservative party doesn't have stalking horses any more. You can't win the raffle unless you buy a ticket at the outset.

Casino_Royale

AlastairMeeks said:

Theresa May needs to do something that will make the public revise the opinion that they've already formed of her. Since the opinion that they've formed of her is that she's too awkward, slow-thinking and out-of-touch, it's going to need to be pretty spectacular.

What she does is goes to ground for several months, before coming out with a (fairly) well-through set piece, which she then follows up in private again. Someone said she likes to be seen as a fighter, and I think that's true, but she doesn't exactly march to the sound of the guns.

I'm not sure what new tricks she has over and above those.

Casino_Royale

AlastairMeeks said:

Nigelb said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Theresa May needs to do something that will make the public revise the opinion that they've already formed of her. Since the opinion that they've formed of her is that she's too awkward, slow-thinking and out-of-touch, it's going to need to be pretty spectacular.

I'm afraid Strictly is out of the question.

Great British Bake Off is more Mrs May's style, I'd have thought.

She's a vicar's daughter. And I'm afraid she fits the stereotype.

Keeping your head down, and getting on with your homework to get the good grades, is all she's known all her life.

DavidL

OldKingCole said:

AlastairMeeks said:

rottenborough said:

No chance of any leadership challenge this autumn if there is major military action or even full war in Korea.

Why? We've changed Prime Minister in both World Wars and indeed in the run up to the first Gulf War.

A ‘full war’ in Korea won’t last long enough for anything much else to happen!

Quite. As Bob Dylan put it:
"Well, the whole thing started at 3 o'clock fast
It was all over by quarter past"

And he finished with:

"Half of the people can be part right all of the time
Some of the people can be all right part of the time
But all of the people can't be all right all of the time
I think Abraham Lincoln said that
"I'll let you be in my dreams if I can be in yours"
I said that."

Genius.

AlastairMeeks

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Boris would be a headache for Theresa May even if she wasn't in a precarious position herself. What to do about him? His performance as Foreign Secretary might charitably be described as in line with expectations; certainly he has only confirmed the widespread doubts about his seriousness. A powerful party leader would by now have called his bluff, but we don't have a powerful party leader. Meanwhile we could do with a Foreign Secretary who is not regarded as a joke or worse by the EU governments we need to do a deal with, and we could also do with a reshuffle which allows some new talent room to develop.

Go for it, Mrs May. I really don't think you've got much to lose at this stage.

We really dodged a bullet with Boris.

Can you imagine him as PM?

By contrast, I still wonder (with interest) what Michael Gove as PM might have been like.

It certainly wouldn't have been dull or lazy.

Boris Johnson is almost certainly the best choice for Prime Minister at present. The position requires very little administrative ability and a nimbleness about political positions that only he possesses is going to be required if anything is going to be salvaged from the Brexit wreckage.

His stint as Mayor was ideal training. Leave all the grunt work to bright underlings and personify the nation.

CarlottaVance

OldKingCole said:

AlastairMeeks said:

rottenborough said:

No chance of any leadership challenge this autumn if there is major military action or even full war in Korea.

Why? We've changed Prime Minister in both World Wars and indeed in the run up to the first Gulf War.

A ‘full war’ in Korea won’t last long enough for anything much else to happen!

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/904726283153805315

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Royale, I'll never get identity politics. It's ridiculous.

Casino_Royale

Charles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Boris would be a headache for Theresa May even if she wasn't in a precarious position herself. What to do about him? His performance as Foreign Secretary might charitably be described as in line with expectations; certainly he has only confirmed the widespread doubts about his seriousness. A powerful party leader would by now have called his bluff, but we don't have a powerful party leader. Meanwhile we could do with a Foreign Secretary who is not regarded as a joke or worse by the EU governments we need to do a deal with, and we could also do with a reshuffle which allows some new talent room to develop.

Go for it, Mrs May. I really don't think you've got much to lose at this stage.

I haven't been paying much attention, but has he done anything majorly wrong vs not really getting a grip on the role (especially as the major issue - Brexit - has been carved out, and, inevitability, in a Pacific War we are bit players).

If Boris is as self-aware as some of his supporters claim, standing down to become Party Chairman with an air of studied neutrality and helping groom the next generation could be an interesting role (and position him for a behind the scenes role) vs being a failed leadership candidate

I think our role in a Pacific War would be limited to sending a Trident sub and a destroyer. Which would be tokens.

The only military contribution we could usefully make would be through GCHQ/MI6 and, possibly, the SBS.

Casino_Royale

david_herdson said:

On topic, I wouldn't be entirely sure that the decision will be referred to the party membership. If the Tories were in opposition then it would definitely go there (the Howard example was very much the exception in that instance), but in government there's a case to be made that the Magic Circle operates, if it can.

That, however, assumes that either one candidate is head and shoulders above the rest, which isn't currently the case, or that there is sufficient collegiality for other runners and riders to withdraw once a consensus is reached - which is a big but not impossible ask.

On balance, the likelihood is that a vote will go to the members but it's far from a certainty.

One thing I don't expect is a 'challenge' from Boris. Firstly, individuals can't challenge, as such - though they can lead calls for a VoNC, making it clear what they want the outcome to be (but crucially, while other MPs might go along with the Vote, they're not then obliged to stick with the challenger who'd by then be tainted with disloyalty, without the countering effect of the momentum a challenger had under the old rules). Besides, does Boris actually have all that many supporters these days?

I think even Boris doubts himself.