Next GE - if May and Corbyn are still leaders who will win
Corbyn 40 - May 39%
Should the tories copy labour's soft Brexit vow to keep UK in the EU single market
Yes 49% No 27% Dn 24%
Is it good or bad to leave the EU with no deal
Bad 58% Good 28% DN 14%
Is May bluffing when she says she could walk away with no Brexit deal
Yes 46% No 18% DN 36%
Clear evidence of a shift towards a softer Brexit
Or at least a transition period, ask voters if they want free movement left uncontrolled permanently and you would get a different idea
I have little doubt the transition period will be as things are now but the issue is how long. Legal opinion is that much more than two years would be challlenged in the ECJ as it would be seen as a mechanism to avoid Brexit
I expect there will be a transition period now agreed by May and Davis with the EU to be about 2 years maximum, though Labour will push for a longer transition period than that and maybe even a permanent one. That will be the key issue concerning Brexit at the next general election
Nobel Peace Prize Committee should take back Aung San Suu Kyi's award. She is orchestrating or certainly overlooking genocide.
The Nobel Peace prize has been beyond satire since Kissinger won it.
Burma is a complex place politically. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi does not have sole contol. She has a tiger to ride.
That argument runs hollow. It has been said that if she does something, she will be removed from power.
What sort of power has she got then that she cannot stop genocide ?
When I was last in Burma she was still under house arrest, and it was a military police state. It was about the only time that I have travelled solo in a police state, and a rather unnerving experience, with spies and informers everywhere.
You cannot divorce a country from its history, and the last century in Burma has been very bloody. I am not unsympathetic to the religious minorities in Burma, and my oldest Burmese friend is a Muslim who spent 7 years in the Jungle as punishment for his participation in the 1988 student protests.
Burma is a lovely country, and these are delightful people, but with a very dark history.
Indeed it is. However, tying patriotism in with membership of a particular religion is a recipe for disaster. Our own history has shown that. Moving from a Police State to a functioning democracy is hard and involves many compromises. It also requires heroes of the liberation to speak out and lead as Mandela did.
It is worth remembering where Daw Aung San Suu Kyi gets her authority, and also why this is vulnerable. Her father Aung San is recognised by the Burmese as the founder of the nation as well as its armed forces. He fought the British and British Indian colonial armies his whole life, and Burmese Muslims are seen as colonists.
Survation had only Boris taking the Tories higher than May in last month's Survation, will be interesting to see if they have a similar poll tomorrow.
UKIP are on 4% in that Survation, they got 1% at the general election so if the Tories squeeze UKIP they are on 41% then they just need 1% from Labour to be level pegging
You are back to hoping Le Pen wins the first round !
Next GE - if May and Corbyn are still leaders who will win
Corbyn 40 - May 39%
Should the tories copy labour's soft Brexit vow to keep UK in the EU single market
Yes 49% No 27% Dn 24%
Is it good or bad to leave the EU with no deal
Bad 58% Good 28% DN 14%
Is May bluffing when she says she could walk away with no Brexit deal
Yes 46% No 18% DN 36%
Clear evidence of a shift towards a softer Brexit
Or at least a transition period, ask voters if they want free movement left uncontrolled permanently and you would get a different idea
I have little doubt the transition period will be as things are now but the issue is how long. Legal opinion is that much more than two years would be challlenged in the ECJ as it would be seen as a mechanism to avoid Brexit
I think it has become to gather speed. There will be either:
Survation had only Boris taking the Tories higher than May in last month's Survation, will be interesting to see if they have a similar poll tomorrow.
UKIP are on 4% in that Survation, they got 1% at the general election so if the Tories squeeze UKIP they are on 41% then they just need 1% from Labour to be level pegging
You are back to hoping Le Pen wins the first round !
Which she did on the basis of departements and regions won (not that I was particularly hoping for it)
Macron of course has gone from winning more than 60% of the vote in the runoff to a 57% disapproval rating in the space of under 3 months!
Nobel Peace Prize Committee should take back Aung San Suu Kyi's award. She is orchestrating or certainly overlooking genocide.
The Nobel Peace prize has been beyond satire since Kissinger won it.
Burma is a complex place politically. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi does not have sole contol. She has a tiger to ride.
That argument runs hollow. It has been said that if she does something, she will be removed from power.
What sort of power has she got then that she cannot stop genocide ?
When I was last in Burma she was still under house arrest, and it was a military police state. It was about the only time that I have travelled solo in a police state, and a rather unnerving experience, with spies and informers everywhere.
You cannot divorce a country from its history, and the last century in Burma has been very bloody. I am not unsympathetic to the religious minorities in Burma, and my oldest Burmese friend is a Muslim who spent 7 years in the Jungle as punishment for his participation in the 1988 student protests.
Burma is a lovely country, and these are delightful people, but with a very dark history.
Indeed it is. However, tying patriotism in with membership of a particular religion is a recipe for disaster. Our own history has shown that. Moving from a Police State to a functioning democracy is hard and involves many compromises. It also requires heroes of the liberation to speak out and lead as Mandela did.
It is worth remembering where Daw Aung San Suu Kyi gets her authority, and also why this is vulnerable. Her father Aung San is recognised by the Burmese as the founder of the nation as well as its armed forces. He fought the British and British Indian colonial armies his whole life, and Burmese Muslims are seen as colonists.
I agree with you. However, this is why it is even more powerful were she to speak out. She carries a moral authority which can not be gainsaid.
Remember it's less than 9 months since the Lancaster House Speech. For a hard Brexit, the edifice needs to withstand another 18 months without collapsing. It's just not going to happen.
Remember it's less than 9 months since the Lancaster House Speech. For a hard Brexit, the edifice needs to withstand another 18 months without collapsing. It's just not going to happen.
Soft Brexit means permanently uncontrolled free movement and 50 to 100 billion euros to the EU, that is not going to happen either
Remember it's less than 9 months since the Lancaster House Speech. For a hard Brexit, the edifice needs to withstand another 18 months without collapsing. It's just not going to happen.
Soft Brexit means permanently uncontrolled free movement and 50 to 100 billion euros to the EU, that is not going to happen either
And when you eliminate the impossible, what is left?
Remember it's less than 9 months since the Lancaster House Speech. For a hard Brexit, the edifice needs to withstand another 18 months without collapsing. It's just not going to happen.
Soft Brexit means permanently uncontrolled free movement and 50 to 100 billion euros to the EU, that is not going to happen either
And when you eliminate the impossible, what is left?
A 2 year transition period then we leave the single market and end free movement.
If and when Labour get back into power (and probably only once they have dumped Corbyn and got a leader like Umunna) we may return to the single market at least but in the meantime Brexit really will mean Brexit
I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.
To be replaced by whom? For what purpose? In what way will transferring the leadership either help the party or the reputation of the next leader, who would then be tarnished with the unavoidable messiness of the Brexit deal?
Far better for both the party and the leadership hopefuls to let May draw off all the poison of Brexit so the next leader won't be immediately toxified by it.
Again, I've go no love for the loser May. But I'll be damned if we lose the country to Momentum just because some Tories want her out immediately due to personal dislike.
Labour will win next time with or without May.
Really? They could only tie the Tories on 42% each in the latest poll from ICM last week
I base my assertion on the natural long terms swings between the main parties of this country that seem to have been fairly consistent for the past 200 years, with a few exceptions.
Once the party of government starts losing seats it seldom recovers until after a period of opposition.
I'd bet Labour would gain >5% during any election campaign, thay have the ground game, better social media tactics and (excuse the pun) momentum on their side.
The Tories won a general election in 1992 after 13 years in power, having lost seats in 1987 and during a recession as enough voters did not want Kinnock as PM, Corbyn may have the same problem
But the Tories lost 40 seats in 1992 compared with 1987.
I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.
To be replaced by whom? For what purpose? In what way will transferring the leadership either help the party or the reputation of the next leader, who would then be tarnished with the unavoidable messiness of the Brexit deal?
Far better for both the party and the leadership hopefuls to let May draw off all the poison of Brexit so the next leader won't be immediately toxified by it.
Again, I've go no love for the loser May. But I'll be damned if we lose the country to Momentum just because some Tories want her out immediately due to personal dislike.
Labour will win next time with or without May.
Really? They could only tie the Tories on 42% each in the latest poll from ICM last week
I base my assertion on the natural long terms swings between the main parties of this country that seem to have been fairly consistent for the past 200 years, with a few exceptions.
Once the party of government starts losing seats it seldom recovers until after a period of opposition.
I'd bet Labour would gain >5% during any election campaign, thay have the ground game, better social media tactics and (excuse the pun) momentum on their side.
The Tories won a general election in 1992 after 13 years in power, having lost seats in 1987 and during a recession as enough voters did not want Kinnock as PM, Corbyn may have the same problem
But the Tories lost 40 seats in 1992 compared with 1987.
Yet they lost only 0.3% of voteshare, Labour's extra votes in 1992 came almost entirely from 1987 SDP voters
I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.
To be replaced by whom? For what purpose? In what way will transferring the leadership either help the party or the reputation of the next leader, who would then be tarnished with the unavoidable messiness of the Brexit deal?
Far better for both the party and the leadership hopefuls to let May draw off all the poison of Brexit so the next leader won't be immediately toxified by it.
Again, I've go no love for the loser May. But I'll be damned if we lose the country to Momentum just because some Tories want her out immediately due to personal dislike.
Labour will win next time with or without May.
Really? They could only tie the Tories on 42% each in the latest poll from ICM last week
I base my assertion on the natural long terms swings between the main parties of this country that seem to have been fairly consistent for the past 200 years, with a few exceptions.
Once the party of government starts losing seats it seldom recovers until after a period of opposition.
I'd bet Labour would gain >5% during any election campaign, thay have the ground game, better social media tactics and (excuse the pun) momentum on their side.
The Tories won a general election in 1992 after 13 years in power, having lost seats in 1987 and during a recession as enough voters did not want Kinnock as PM, Corbyn may have the same problem
But the Tories lost 40 seats in 1992 compared with 1987.
Yet they lost only 0.3% of voteshare, Labour's extra votes in 1992 came almost entirely from 1987 SDP voters
I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.
To be replaced by whom? For what purpose? In what way will transferring the leadership either help the party or the reputation of the next leader, who would then be tarnished with the unavoidable messiness of the Brexit deal?
Far better for both the party and the leadership hopefuls to let May draw off all the poison of Brexit so the next leader won't be immediately toxified by it.
Again, I've go no love for the loser May. But I'll be damned if we lose the country to Momentum just because some Tories want her out immediately due to personal dislike.
Labour will win next time with or without May.
Really? They could only tie the Tories on 42% each in the latest poll from ICM last week
I base my assertion on the natural long terms swings between the main parties of this country that seem to have been fairly consistent for the past 200 years, with a few exceptions.
Once the party of government starts losing seats it seldom recovers until after a period of opposition.
I'd bet Labour would gain >5% during any election campaign, thay have the ground game, better social media tactics and (excuse the pun) momentum on their side.
The Tories won a general election in 1992 after 13 years in power, having lost seats in 1987 and during a recession as enough voters did not want Kinnock as PM, Corbyn may have the same problem
But the Tories lost 40 seats in 1992 compared with 1987.
Yet they lost only 0.3% of voteshare, Labour's extra votes in 1992 came almost entirely from 1987 SDP voters
The Tory GB share dropped from 43.3% to 42.8%..
A 0.5% drop, negligible and of course it is a UK Parliament we elect not a GB Parliament
Comments
Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
Macron of course has gone from winning more than 60% of the vote in the runoff to a 57% disapproval rating in the space of under 3 months!
If and when Labour get back into power (and probably only once they have dumped Corbyn and got a leader like Umunna) we may return to the single market at least but in the meantime Brexit really will mean Brexit
Graham Brady's postman is going to get a hernia soon
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