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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov finds 7 out 10 voters, and 4 out 10 Tories don’t Mrs Ma

SystemSystem Posts: 12,259
edited September 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov finds 7 out 10 voters, and 4 out 10 Tories don’t Mrs May to fight the next general election

YouGov poll for The Sunday times finds 7 out 10 voters, and 4 out 10 Tories don't want Mrs May to fight the next general election.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    The crosby story isn't new info. We talked about it on here at the time.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,338
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The crosby story isn't new info. We talked about it on here at the time.

    Yes, but this is it being leaked in its entirety, previously we only knew it existed, but not what it specifically said.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,657
    Interesting that more voters want May to fight the next general election than go now, though most still want a new Tory leader in place by then
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,401
    6 out of 10 Tories want May to fight the next election? Gluttons for punishment!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,764
    May has got to go.

    When she finally does go and people look back, they will realise just how cosmically bad she is.

    For now, some weird spell of inertia captivates the Tory party.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,338
    I'm assuming those voters that want Mrs May to fight the next election contains a big chunk of Labour and Lib Dem supporters.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The crosby story isn't new info. We talked about it on here at the time.

    Did we?

    Smacks of desperate aftertiming from a guy who is now basically unemployable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,657
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm assuming those voters that want Mrs May to fight the next election contains a big chunk of Labour and Lib Dem supporters.

    Not when 60% of Tories want her to fight the next general election
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,837
    Jonathan said:

    When she finally does go and people look back, they will realise just how cosmically bad she is.

    Don't tempt fate. The final two could be Rees-Mogg and Priti Patel.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited September 2017
    I guess the question is

    'How dumb are Tory MPs?'

    Do they believe what is in the papers?
    Do they allow 'opinion formers' to manipulate them?
    Are they keen on quick and long term trip to powerless obscurity?

    If they can answer yes to these three questions, then there may be an overloaded postman in Westminster. If they can't, another weeks headlines are destined for the recycle bin or chippie.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,657
    edited September 2017
    Jonathan said:

    May has got to go.

    When she finally does go and people look back, they will realise just how cosmically bad she is.

    For now, some weird spell of inertia captivates the Tory party.

    Will they? When faced with Boris v Corbyn at the next general election some may look back with nostalgia
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,338
    Pong said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The crosby story isn't new info. We talked about it on here at the time.

    Did we?

    Smacks of desperate aftertiming from a guy who is now basically unemployable.
    Yes we did.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,657
    williamglenn said:

    Jonathan said:

    When she finally does go and people look back, they will realise just how cosmically bad she is.

    Don't tempt fate. The final two could be Rees-Mogg and Priti Patel.
    Those 2 will more likely be the frontrunners for next Tory opposition leader
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,338
    Don't assume 60% of Tories want Mrs May to fight the next election.

    Whilst 40% might want her to fight the next election, of that 60% might include a significant chunk of Don't Knows.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    The most important thing is keeping the old commie out of No.10 for as long as possible. I despise May for blowing her shot at a historic landslide, but I'd rather have a thousand years of May than a single day of Jeremy-fecking-Corbyn!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,401
    williamglenn said:

    Jonathan said:

    When she finally does go and people look back, they will realise just how cosmically bad she is.

    Don't tempt fate. The final two could be Rees-Mogg and Priti Patel.
    You have answered my question of why 6 out of 10 Tories want May to fight the next election. It's not that party members want Rees-Mogg. They think other members might select him. Even May is a better prospect.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited September 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Don't assume 60% of Tories want Mrs May to fight the next election.

    Whilst 40% might want her to fight the next election, of that 60% might include a significant chunk of Don't Knows.

    I think we have enough experience of her to know that she isn't a good campaigner as the front man for a national campaign facing daily TV, electors, crowds and reporters. She may well be very good in a low key Maidenhaed election, but that isn't the same thing. She isn't a free thinking natural debater, she has a rather wooden personality on TV. Lightness and positivity do not radiate freely from her.

    I would find it astonishing if she leads the Tory party into an election again.

    So saying, as you need to dissolve parliament to hold an election, we come back to the fixed term parliament act. Was there a sunset clause in the fixed term parliament act? Something tells me at the back of my head that there was, but I am not sure.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Antifa

    Whenever I read that, I first think it stands for "AntiFatcha"

    Maybe it does.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,338
    philiph said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Don't assume 60% of Tories want Mrs May to fight the next election.

    Whilst 40% might want her to fight the next election, of that 60% might include a significant chunk of Don't Knows.

    I think we have enough experience of her to know that she isn't a good campaigner as the front man for a national campaign facing daily TV, electors, crowds and reporters. She may well be very good in a low key Maidenhaed election, but that isn't the same thing. She isn't a free thinking natural debater, she has a rather wooden personality on TV. Lightness and positivity do not radiate freely from her.

    I would find it astonishing if she leads the Tory party into an election again.

    So saying, as you need to dissolve parliament to hold an election, we come back to the fixed term parliament act. Was there a sunset clause in the fixed term parliament act? Something tells me at the back of my head that there was, but I am not sure.
    If we want an election before 2022 we will need a vote in Parliament.

    The sunset clause will now kick in after that election.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,090
    There is nothing surprising in these figures. Only 23% want her to go now and with Brexit she is in as strong a position as ever.

    But she will not lead into the 2022 election. Sometime between August 2019 and spring 2020 she will stand down or be pushed
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Latest German polls:

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,338
    I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Jonathan said:

    May has got to go.

    When she finally does go and people look back, they will realise just how cosmically bad she is.

    For now, some weird spell of inertia captivates the Tory party.

    I don't think it is blindness to her imperfections that is the problem, it's the fact that there is no alternative. If you think she is useless, imagine what Fox or Davis or Johnson would be like.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,090
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.

    And why would any conservative want to take on Brexit. Still stick to my Autumn 2019 to Spring 2020.

    Her biggest failure is her inability to express herself well and I do not believe she can do anything about that
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,338
    “The stakes are very high for her,” one David Davis ally said. “If she has one more fumble she’s finished. She’s a wasting asset who’s chained to a radiator in Number 10.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/02/long-can-theresa-may-hang-pms-supporters-will-remind-mps-real/
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    FF43 said:

    6 out of 10 Tories want May to fight the next election? Gluttons for punishment!

    May's situation is very similar to Corbyn's. She appeals to quite a lot of people, but not enough to win. But her rivals don't appeal to anyone.

  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.

    To be replaced by whom? For what purpose? In what way will transferring the leadership either help the party or the reputation of the next leader, who would then be tarnished with the unavoidable messiness of the Brexit deal?

    Far better for both the party and the leadership hopefuls to let May draw off all the poison of Brexit so the next leader won't be immediately toxified by it.

    Again, I've go no love for the loser May. But I'll be damned if we lose the country to Momentum just because some Tories want her out immediately due to personal dislike.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,090
    Recidivist said:

    FF43 said:

    6 out of 10 Tories want May to fight the next election? Gluttons for punishment!

    May's situation is very similar to Corbyn's. She appeals to quite a lot of people, but not enough to win. But her rivals don't appeal to anyone.

    There are several labour MPs who would appeal more than Corbyn, Thornberry on the left, Starmer and Cooper.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,338
    edited September 2017
    It looks like the government might not have the votes for its planned Henry VIII clauses.

    If Mrs May loses parliamentary votes on something that fundamental then she's a goner.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,837
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It looks like the government might not have the votes for its planned Henry VIII clauses.

    If Mrs May loses parliamentary votes on something that fundamental then she's a goner.

    If she can't get that bill through then surely Brexit is a goner too?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,338
    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.

    To be replaced by whom? For what purpose? In what way will transferring the leadership either help the party or the reputation of the next leader, who would then be tarnished with the unavoidable messiness of the Brexit deal?

    Far better for both the party and the leadership hopefuls to let May draw off all the poison of Brexit so the next leader won't be immediately toxified by it.

    Again, I've go no love for the loser May. But I'll be damned if we lose the country to Momentum just because some Tories want her out immediately due to personal dislike.
    Because I, and many others, have no faith in Mrs May being able to deliver a decent Brexit, a bad Brexit increases the chances of Corbyn as PM, that's why she needs to go.

    Just look at her attempted power grab with the Henry VIII clauses.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,338
    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It looks like the government might not have the votes for its planned Henry VIII clauses.

    If Mrs May loses parliamentary votes on something that fundamental then she's a goner.

    If she can't get that bill through then surely Brexit is a goner too?
    Nah, it just means we fall out the EU with a very hard Brexit and a legal minefield in the UK come March 2019, which will enrich the legal profession, so it ain't all bad.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,090
    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It looks like the government might not have the votes for its planned Henry VIII clauses.

    If Mrs May loses parliamentary votes on something that fundamental then she's a goner.

    If she can't get that bill through then surely Brexit is a goner too?
    The problem is that any failure to deliver on Brexit will see a huge backlash against those scheming to prevent the democratic vote of the people
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.

    To be replaced by whom? For what purpose? In what way will transferring the leadership either help the party or the reputation of the next leader, who would then be tarnished with the unavoidable messiness of the Brexit deal?

    Far better for both the party and the leadership hopefuls to let May draw off all the poison of Brexit so the next leader won't be immediately toxified by it.

    Again, I've go no love for the loser May. But I'll be damned if we lose the country to Momentum just because some Tories want her out immediately due to personal dislike.
    Labour will win next time with or without May.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,764
    May and her administration are incompetent. We're at crucial moment. We need better people than this.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.

    To be replaced by whom? For what purpose? In what way will transferring the leadership either help the party or the reputation of the next leader, who would then be tarnished with the unavoidable messiness of the Brexit deal?

    Far better for both the party and the leadership hopefuls to let May draw off all the poison of Brexit so the next leader won't be immediately toxified by it.

    Again, I've go no love for the loser May. But I'll be damned if we lose the country to Momentum just because some Tories want her out immediately due to personal dislike.
    Because I, and many others, have no faith in Mrs May being able to deliver a decent Brexit, a bad Brexit increases the chances of Corbyn as PM, that's why she needs to go.

    Just look at her attempted power grab with the Henry VIII clauses.
    Are any of the likely candidates really going to be able to deliver a "decent" Brexit? It's largely out of our hands - we either accede to the EU's demands and avoid an immediate crisis at the price of being humiliated, or we don't and crash out in chaos.

    For the record, I'd prefer the humiliation! But neither of these outcomes is going to be a vote winner whoever carries it through...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,657
    edited September 2017
    AndyJS said:

    Latest German polls:

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    The FDP in 3rd on 10% in the latest poll, in the poll before that the AfD in 3rd on 11% and Die Linke in 4th in both on 9%. Looks tight for third but the CDU has a lead of 10%+ over the SPD and unless Merkel completely blows the debate tomorrow she will be back as Chancellor
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It looks like the government might not have the votes for its planned Henry VIII clauses.

    If Mrs May loses parliamentary votes on something that fundamental then she's a goner.

    If she can't get that bill through then surely Brexit is a goner too?
    The problem is that any failure to deliver on Brexit will see a huge backlash against those scheming to prevent the democratic vote of the people
    More likely a huge backlash against the incompetents who are supposed to be running the country.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Benpointer said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.

    To be replaced by whom? For what purpose? In what way will transferring the leadership either help the party or the reputation of the next leader, who would then be tarnished with the unavoidable messiness of the Brexit deal?

    Far better for both the party and the leadership hopefuls to let May draw off all the poison of Brexit so the next leader won't be immediately toxified by it.

    Again, I've go no love for the loser May. But I'll be damned if we lose the country to Momentum just because some Tories want her out immediately due to personal dislike.
    Labour will win next time with or without May.
    That's about 90% likely, yes. So clearly the best strategy is to put off doomsday as long as possible (all the way up to 2022 if we can), slot in a young leader untarnished by Brexit in 2021, and fight on as fresh a platform as we can.

    But change leaders and risk and election now? Hell no!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.

    To be replaced by whom? For what purpose? In what way will transferring the leadership either help the party or the reputation of the next leader, who would then be tarnished with the unavoidable messiness of the Brexit deal?

    Far better for both the party and the leadership hopefuls to let May draw off all the poison of Brexit so the next leader won't be immediately toxified by it.

    Again, I've go no love for the loser May. But I'll be damned if we lose the country to Momentum just because some Tories want her out immediately due to personal dislike.
    Because I, and many others, have no faith in Mrs May being able to deliver a decent Brexit, a bad Brexit increases the chances of Corbyn as PM, that's why she needs to go.

    Just look at her attempted power grab with the Henry VIII clauses.
    Are any of the likely candidates really going to be able to deliver a "decent" Brexit? It's largely out of our hands - we either accede to the EU's demands and avoid an immediate crisis at the price of being humiliated, or we don't and crash out in chaos.

    For the record, I'd prefer the humiliation! But neither of these outcomes is going to be a vote winner whoever carries it through...
    Very well put.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,657
    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.

    To be replaced by whom? For what purpose? In what way will transferring the leadership either help the party or the reputation of the next leader, who would then be tarnished with the unavoidable messiness of the Brexit deal?

    Far better for both the party and the leadership hopefuls to let May draw off all the poison of Brexit so the next leader won't be immediately toxified by it.

    Again, I've go no love for the loser May. But I'll be damned if we lose the country to Momentum just because some Tories want her out immediately due to personal dislike.
    Because I, and many others, have no faith in Mrs May being able to deliver a decent Brexit, a bad Brexit increases the chances of Corbyn as PM, that's why she needs to go.

    Just look at her attempted power grab with the Henry VIII clauses.
    Are any of the likely candidates really going to be able to deliver a "decent" Brexit? It's largely out of our hands - we either accede to the EU's demands and avoid an immediate crisis at the price of being humiliated, or we don't and crash out in chaos.

    For the record, I'd prefer the humiliation! But neither of these outcomes is going to be a vote winner whoever carries it through...
    Most likely it will be a year or two transition then full Brexit, out of the single market and an end to free movement. The new Tory Leader will likely call a general in 2020 to either back that or Labour's plan to stay in the single market for 4-5+ years post Brexit with free movement continuing unchecked throughout
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,657
    edited September 2017
    Benpointer said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.

    To be replaced by whom? For what purpose? In what way will transferring the leadership either help the party or the reputation of the next leader, who would then be tarnished with the unavoidable messiness of the Brexit deal?

    Far better for both the party and the leadership hopefuls to let May draw off all the poison of Brexit so the next leader won't be immediately toxified by it.

    Again, I've go no love for the loser May. But I'll be damned if we lose the country to Momentum just because some Tories want her out immediately due to personal dislike.
    Labour will win next time with or without May.
    Really? They could only tie the Tories on 42% each in the latest poll from ICM last week
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    blueblue said:

    Benpointer said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.

    To be replaced by whom? For what purpose? In what way will transferring the leadership either help the party or the reputation of the next leader, who would then be tarnished with the unavoidable messiness of the Brexit deal?

    Far better for both the party and the leadership hopefuls to let May draw off all the poison of Brexit so the next leader won't be immediately toxified by it.

    Again, I've go no love for the loser May. But I'll be damned if we lose the country to Momentum just because some Tories want her out immediately due to personal dislike.
    Labour will win next time with or without May.
    That's about 90% likely, yes. So clearly the best strategy is to put off doomsday as long as possible (all the way up to 2022 if we can), slot in a young leader untarnished by Brexit in 2021, and fight on as fresh a platform as we can.

    But change leaders and risk and election now? Hell no!
    Yes I agree, from a Tory perspective that would be madness (so not totally impossible lol!). They have somehow painted themselves into a corner now - May can stay for just as long as she likes and I suspect she's stubborn enough to fight the next election.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.

    To be replaced by whom? For what purpose? In what way will transferring the leadership either help the party or the reputation of the next leader, who would then be tarnished with the unavoidable messiness of the Brexit deal?

    Far better for both the party and the leadership hopefuls to let May draw off all the poison of Brexit so the next leader won't be immediately toxified by it.

    Again, I've go no love for the loser May. But I'll be damned if we lose the country to Momentum just because some Tories want her out immediately due to personal dislike.
    Because I, and many others, have no faith in Mrs May being able to deliver a decent Brexit, a bad Brexit increases the chances of Corbyn as PM, that's why she needs to go.

    Just look at her attempted power grab with the Henry VIII clauses.
    Are any of the likely candidates really going to be able to deliver a "decent" Brexit? It's largely out of our hands - we either accede to the EU's demands and avoid an immediate crisis at the price of being humiliated, or we don't and crash out in chaos.

    For the record, I'd prefer the humiliation! But neither of these outcomes is going to be a vote winner whoever carries it through...
    Most likely it will be a year or two transition then full Brexit, out of the single market and an end to free movement. The new Tory Leader will likely call a general in 2020 to either back that or Labour's plan to stay in the single market for 4-5+ years post Brexit with free movement continuing unchecked throughout
    That sounds like a decent plan on paper, but I'm afraid that in that circumstance we'd lose, and maybe lose badly. They don't call me blueblue for nothing!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,371
    Am I the only one who remembers Mike's thread from March this year?

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/03/30/can-we-end-this-snap-election-speculation-tmay-like-dave-before-simply-does-not-have-the-power-to-call-one/
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,090
    Benpointer said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.

    To be replaced by whom? For what purpose? In what way will transferring the leadership either help the party or the reputation of the next leader, who would then be tarnished with the unavoidable messiness of the Brexit deal?

    Far better for both the party and the leadership hopefuls to let May draw off all the poison of Brexit so the next leader won't be immediately toxified by it.

    Again, I've go no love for the loser May. But I'll be damned if we lose the country to Momentum just because some Tories want her out immediately due to personal dislike.
    Labour will win next time with or without May.
    I admire your confidence - nothing today is as certain as you see it
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm assuming those voters that want Mrs May to fight the next election contains a big chunk of Labour and Lib Dem supporters.

    I would like Mrs.May to fight the next election since she is the Prime Minister.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,764
    The question is who in the Tory party is best placed to form a half decent administration. Someone who can pull in talent and organise.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    edited September 2017
    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.

    To be replaced by whom? For what purpose? In what way will transferring the leadership either help the party or the reputation of the next leader, who would then be tarnished with the unavoidable messiness of the Brexit deal?

    Far better for both the party and the leadership hopefuls to let May draw off all the poison of Brexit so the next leader won't be immediately toxified by it.

    Again, I've go no love for the loser May. But I'll be damned if we lose the country to Momentum just because some Tories want her out immediately due to personal dislike.
    Labour will win next time with or without May.
    Really? They could only tie the Tories on 42% each in the latest poll from ICM last week
    I base my assertion on the natural long terms swings between the main parties of this country that seem to have been fairly consistent for the past 200 years, with a few exceptions.

    Once the party of government starts losing seats it seldom recovers until after a period of opposition.

    I'd bet Labour would gain >5% during any election campaign, thay have the ground game, better social media tactics and (excuse the pun) momentum on their side.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,090
    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It looks like the government might not have the votes for its planned Henry VIII clauses.

    If Mrs May loses parliamentary votes on something that fundamental then she's a goner.

    If she can't get that bill through then surely Brexit is a goner too?
    The problem is that any failure to deliver on Brexit will see a huge backlash against those scheming to prevent the democratic vote of the people
    More likely a huge backlash against the incompetents who are supposed to be running the country.
    Not if the EU are seen to be the cause
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited September 2017
    Jonathan said:

    May has got to go.

    When she finally does go and people look back, they will realise just how cosmically bad she is.

    For now, some weird spell of inertia captivates the Tory party.

    Watching her hang on by the nail on her right index finger is the only thing that's making politics during the Brexit debacle bearable. Cheer up and listen to this in German......

    https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=lena+99+luftbaloons&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b&gfe_rd=cr&dcr=0&ei=biarWdLWLqHA8gfw-rSQBw
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/marrshow/status/904052946446540800
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,381
    williamglenn said:

    Jonathan said:

    When she finally does go and people look back, they will realise just how cosmically bad she is.

    Don't tempt fate. The final two could be Rees-Mogg and Priti Patel.
    In an ideal world.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.

    To be replaced by whom? For what purpose? In what way will transferring the leadership either help the party or the reputation of the next leader, who would then be tarnished with the unavoidable messiness of the Brexit deal?

    Far better for both the party and the leadership hopefuls to let May draw off all the poison of Brexit so the next leader won't be immediately toxified by it.

    Again, I've go no love for the loser May. But I'll be damned if we lose the country to Momentum just because some Tories want her out immediately due to personal dislike.
    Because I, and many others, have no faith in Mrs May being able to deliver a decent Brexit, a bad Brexit increases the chances of Corbyn as PM, that's why she needs to go.

    Just look at her attempted power grab with the Henry VIII clauses.
    Are any of the likely candidates really going to be able to deliver a "decent" Brexit? It's largely out of our hands - we either accede to the EU's demands and avoid an immediate crisis at the price of being humiliated, or we don't and crash out in chaos.

    For the record, I'd prefer the humiliation! But neither of these outcomes is going to be a vote winner whoever carries it through...
    Sounds about right to me also, but I reckon that the Government will spit the dummy, and we get WTO Brexit.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,401
    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.

    To be replaced by whom? For what purpose? In what way will transferring the leadership either help the party or the reputation of the next leader, who would then be tarnished with the unavoidable messiness of the Brexit deal?

    Far better for both the party and the leadership hopefuls to let May draw off all the poison of Brexit so the next leader won't be immediately toxified by it.

    Again, I've go no love for the loser May. But I'll be damned if we lose the country to Momentum just because some Tories want her out immediately due to personal dislike.
    Because I, and many others, have no faith in Mrs May being able to deliver a decent Brexit, a bad Brexit increases the chances of Corbyn as PM, that's why she needs to go.

    Just look at her attempted power grab with the Henry VIII clauses.
    Are any of the likely candidates really going to be able to deliver a "decent" Brexit? It's largely out of our hands - we either accede to the EU's demands and avoid an immediate crisis at the price of being humiliated, or we don't and crash out in chaos.

    For the record, I'd prefer the humiliation! But neither of these outcomes is going to be a vote winner whoever carries it through...
    And people say Brexit is boring. As a Confucianist I say these are interesting times.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It looks like the government might not have the votes for its planned Henry VIII clauses.

    If Mrs May loses parliamentary votes on something that fundamental then she's a goner.

    If she can't get that bill through then surely Brexit is a goner too?
    The problem is that any failure to deliver on Brexit will see a huge backlash against those scheming to prevent the democratic vote of the people
    More likely a huge backlash against the incompetents who are supposed to be running the country.
    Not if the EU are seen to be the cause
    As has been said many times before, the EU's stance has been entirely predictable. Of course the Mail and hard core leavers will blame the EU but I suspect many who voted leave and nearly all remain voters will blame our UK government.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It looks like the government might not have the votes for its planned Henry VIII clauses.

    If Mrs May loses parliamentary votes on something that fundamental then she's a goner.

    If she can't get that bill through then surely Brexit is a goner too?
    The problem is that any failure to deliver on Brexit will see a huge backlash against those scheming to prevent the democratic vote of the people
    More likely a huge backlash against the incompetents who are supposed to be running the country.
    Not if the EU are seen to be the cause
    The Tories will try to pin the collapse on the EU, but I cannot see them getting it to stick.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,090
    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It looks like the government might not have the votes for its planned Henry VIII clauses.

    If Mrs May loses parliamentary votes on something that fundamental then she's a goner.

    If she can't get that bill through then surely Brexit is a goner too?
    The problem is that any failure to deliver on Brexit will see a huge backlash against those scheming to prevent the democratic vote of the people
    More likely a huge backlash against the incompetents who are supposed to be running the country.
    Not if the EU are seen to be the cause
    As has been said many times before, the EU's stance has been entirely predictable. Of course the Mail and hard core leavers will blame the EU but I suspect many who voted leave and nearly all remain voters will blame our UK government.
    Not as simple as that - depends on the narrative but I can understand you expressing your desired outcome
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,837
    edited September 2017
    Would buy a used trade deal off this man?

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/09/02/trump-plans-withdrawal-from-south-korea-trade-deal
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Nobel Peace Prize Committee should take back Aung San Suu Kyi's award. She is orchestrating or certainly overlooking genocide.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    foxinsoxuk said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.

    To be replaced by whom? For what purpose? In what way will transferring the leadership either help the party or the reputation of the next leader, who would then be tarnished with the unavoidable messiness of the Brexit deal?

    Far better for both the party and the leadership hopefuls to let May draw off all the poison of Brexit so the next leader won't be immediately toxified by it.

    Again, I've go no love for the loser May. But I'll be damned if we lose the country to Momentum just because some Tories want her out immediately due to personal dislike.
    Because I, and many others, have no faith in Mrs May being able to deliver a decent Brexit, a bad Brexit increases the chances of Corbyn as PM, that's why she needs to go.

    Just look at her attempted power grab with the Henry VIII clauses.
    Are any of the likely candidates really going to be able to deliver a "decent" Brexit? It's largely out of our hands - we either accede to the EU's demands and avoid an immediate crisis at the price of being humiliated, or we don't and crash out in chaos.

    For the record, I'd prefer the humiliation! But neither of these outcomes is going to be a vote winner whoever carries it through...
    Sounds about right to me also, but I reckon that the Government will spit the dummy, and we get WTO Brexit.
    Sadly I agree that looks most likely. Who then in the Tory party will want to take over from May to fight a GE on the back of rock hard Brexit? Nope, they'll let May lose that one, and let Labour deal with the post-Brexit mess.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    williamglenn said:

    Would buy a used trade deal off this man?

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/09/02/trump-plans-withdrawal-from-south-korea-trade-deal

    Trump's trade deal is simple: America First.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,657
    edited September 2017
    blueblue said:

    HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.

    To be replaced by whom? For what purpose? In what way will transferring the leadership either help the party or the reputation of the next leader, who would then be tarnished with the unavoidable messiness of the Brexit deal?

    Far better for both the party and the leadership hopefuls to let May draw off all the poison of Brexit so the next leader won't be immediately toxified by it.

    Again, I've go no love for the loser May. But I'll be damned if we lose the country to Momentum just because some Tories want her out immediately due to personal dislike.
    Because I, and many others, have no faith in Mrs May being able to deliver a decent Brexit, a bad Brexit increases the chances of Corbyn as PM, that's why she needs to go.

    Just look at her attempted power grab with the Henry VIII clauses.
    Are any of the likely candidates really going to be able to deliver a "decent" Brexit? It's largely out of our hands - we either accede to the EU's demands and avoid an immediate crisis at the price of being humiliated, or we don't and crash out in chaos.

    For the record, I'd prefer the humiliation! But neither of these outcomes is going to be a vote winner whoever carries it through...
    Most likely it will be a year or two transition then full Brexit, out of the single market and an end to free movement. The new Tory Leader will likely call a general in 2020 to either back that or Labour's plan to stay in the single market for 4-5+ years post Brexit with free movement continuing unchecked throughout
    That sounds like a decent plan on paper, but I'm afraid that in that circumstance we'd lose, and maybe lose badly. They don't call me blueblue for nothing!
    If Corbyn goes into the next general election promising uncontrolled free movement for probably the whole of the next Parliament Labour Leavers in the North and Midlands who stuck with him last time may start to have second thoughts, working class Labour voters voting Leave were mainly doing so to reduce immigration
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,090
    If 70% of all voters do not want Theresa May to take the conservatives into the next GE it is more than probable that a considerable majority want to see a leader who can take on and beat Corbyn
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It looks like the government might not have the votes for its planned Henry VIII clauses.

    If Mrs May loses parliamentary votes on something that fundamental then she's a goner.

    If she can't get that bill through then surely Brexit is a goner too?
    The problem is that any failure to deliver on Brexit will see a huge backlash against those scheming to prevent the democratic vote of the people
    More likely a huge backlash against the incompetents who are supposed to be running the country.
    Not if the EU are seen to be the cause
    As has been said many times before, the EU's stance has been entirely predictable. Of course the Mail and hard core leavers will blame the EU but I suspect many who voted leave and nearly all remain voters will blame our UK government.
    Not as simple as that - depends on the narrative but I can understand you expressing your desired outcome
    Well, I am sure there is some of that :wink:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,657
    edited September 2017
    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.

    To be replaced by whom? For what purpose? In what way will transferring the leadership either help the party or the reputation of the next leader, who would then be tarnished with the unavoidable messiness of the Brexit deal?

    Far better for both the party and the leadership hopefuls to let May draw off all the poison of Brexit so the next leader won't be immediately toxified by it.

    Again, I've go no love for the loser May. But I'll be damned if we lose the country to Momentum just because some Tories want her out immediately due to personal dislike.
    Labour will win next time with or without May.
    Really? They could only tie the Tories on 42% each in the latest poll from ICM last week
    I base my assertion on the natural long terms swings between the main parties of this country that seem to have been fairly consistent for the past 200 years, with a few exceptions.

    Once the party of government starts losing seats it seldom recovers until after a period of opposition.

    I'd bet Labour would gain >5% during any election campaign, thay have the ground game, better social media tactics and (excuse the pun) momentum on their side.
    The Tories won a general election in 1992 after 13 years in power, having lost seats in 1987 and during a recession as enough voters did not want Kinnock as PM, Corbyn may have the same problem
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,090
    Benpointer said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.

    To be replaced by whom? For what purpose? In what way will transferring the leadership either help the party or the reputation of the next leader, who would then be tarnished with the unavoidable messiness of the Brexit deal?

    Far better for both the party and the leadership hopefuls to let May draw off all the poison of Brexit so the next leader won't be immediately toxified by it.

    Again, I've go no love for the loser May. But I'll be damned if we lose the country to Momentum just because some Tories want her out immediately due to personal dislike.
    Because I, and many others, have no faith in Mrs May being able to deliver a decent Brexit, a bad Brexit increases the chances of Corbyn as PM, that's why she needs to go.

    Just look at her attempted power grab with the Henry VIII clauses.
    Are any of the likely candidates really going to be able to deliver a "decent" Brexit? It's largely out of our hands - we either accede to the EU's demands and avoid an immediate crisis at the price of being humiliated, or we don't and crash out in chaos.

    For the record, I'd prefer the humiliation! But neither of these outcomes is going to be a vote winner whoever carries it through...
    Sounds about right to me also, but I reckon that the Government will spit the dummy, and we get WTO Brexit.
    Sadly I agree that looks most likely. Who then in the Tory party will want to take over from May to fight a GE on the back of rock hard Brexit? Nope, they'll let May lose that one, and let Labour deal with the post-Brexit mess.
    Again drawing conclusions on speculation. No one can say how this will pan out. You seem to be carried away on the idea labour with Corbyn will win the next GE no matter how matters develop.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    surbiton said:

    Nobel Peace Prize Committee should take back Aung San Suu Kyi's award. She is orchestrating or certainly overlooking genocide.

    The Nobel Peace prize has been beyond satire since Kissinger won it.

    Burma is a complex place politically. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi does not have sole contol. She has a tiger to ride.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,090
    surbiton said:

    Nobel Peace Prize Committee should take back Aung San Suu Kyi's award. She is orchestrating or certainly overlooking genocide.

    We agree on this Surby. Indeed I just said that to my wife and also reflected on how Bercow's sycophant speech to her in the House of Parliament now looks.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.

    To be replaced by whom? For what purpose? In what way will transferring the leadership either help the party or the reputation of the next leader, who would then be tarnished with the unavoidable messiness of the Brexit deal?

    Far better for both the party and the leadership hopefuls to let May draw off all the poison of Brexit so the next leader won't be immediately toxified by it.

    Again, I've go no love for the loser May. But I'll be damned if we lose the country to Momentum just because some Tories want her out immediately due to personal dislike.
    Because I, and many others, have no faith in Mrs May being able to deliver a decent Brexit, a bad Brexit increases the chances of Corbyn as PM, that's why she needs to go.

    Just look at her attempted power grab with the Henry VIII clauses.
    Are any of the likely candidates really going to be able to deliver a "decent" Brexit? It's largely out of our hands - we either accede to the EU's demands and avoid an immediate crisis at the price of being humiliated, or we don't and crash out in chaos.

    For the record, I'd prefer the humiliation! But neither of these outcomes is going to be a vote winner whoever carries it through...
    Sounds about right to me also, but I reckon that the Government will spit the dummy, and we get WTO Brexit.
    Sadly I agree that looks most likely. Who then in the Tory party will want to take over from May to fight a GE on the back of rock hard Brexit? Nope, they'll let May lose that one, and let Labour deal with the post-Brexit mess.
    Again drawing conclusions on speculation. No one can say how this will pan out. You seem to be carried away on the idea labour with Corbyn will win the next GE no matter how matters develop.
    I am not really 'carried away' with it Big_G, it's just what I think is most likely to happen. Equally you think there will be a big backlash against the EU if we drop out with a hard Brexit. Neither of us knows, we could both be right, we could both be wrong.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,401
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It looks like the government might not have the votes for its planned Henry VIII clauses.

    If Mrs May loses parliamentary votes on something that fundamental then she's a goner.

    If she can't get that bill through then surely Brexit is a goner too?
    The problem is that any failure to deliver on Brexit will see a huge backlash against those scheming to prevent the democratic vote of the people
    More likely a huge backlash against the incompetents who are supposed to be running the country.
    Not if the EU are seen to be the cause
    As has been said many times before, the EU's stance has been entirely predictable. Of course the Mail and hard core leavers will blame the EU but I suspect many who voted leave and nearly all remain voters will blame our UK government.
    Not as simple as that - depends on the narrative but I can understand you expressing your desired outcome
    The narrative would be (a) to the British public - thanks to the skill and dedication of the Conservative government Brexit is a huge success and it's all the fault of the EU. (b) to the EU: we love you, we love you, we love you. Give us a trade deal. Pretty please? It's all your fault.

    Hmm, tricky. As far as the government is concerned Brexit has to be declared a success.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,090
    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.

    To be replaced by whom? For what purpose? In what way will transferring the leadership either help the party or the reputation of the next leader, who would then be tarnished with the unavoidable messiness of the Brexit deal?

    Far better for both the party and the leadership hopefuls to let May draw off all the poison of Brexit so the next leader won't be immediately toxified by it.

    Again, I've go no love for the loser May. But I'll be damned if we lose the country to Momentum just because some Tories want her out immediately due to personal dislike.
    Because I, and many others, have no faith in Mrs May being able to deliver a decent Brexit, a bad Brexit increases the chances of Corbyn as PM, that's why she needs to go.

    Just look at her attempted power grab with the Henry VIII clauses.
    Are any of the likely candidates really going to be able to deliver a "decent" Brexit? It's largely out of our hands - we either accede to the EU's demands and avoid an immediate crisis at the price of being humiliated, or we don't and crash out in chaos.

    For the record, I'd prefer the humiliation! But neither of these outcomes is going to be a vote winner whoever carries it through...
    Sounds about right to me also, but I reckon that the Government will spit the dummy, and we get WTO Brexit.
    Sadly I agree that looks most likely. Who then in the Tory party will want to take over from May to fight a GE on the back of rock hard Brexit? Nope, they'll let May lose that one, and let Labour deal with the post-Brexit mess.
    Again drawing conclusions on speculation. No one can say how this will pan out. You seem to be carried away on the idea labour with Corbyn will win the next GE no matter how matters develop.
    I am not really 'carried away' with it Big_G, it's just what I think is most likely to happen. Equally you think there will be a big backlash against the EU if we drop out with a hard Brexit. Neither of us knows, we could both be right, we could both be wrong.
    In the great tradition of PB we state our views and in the end come very much to the same conclusion
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,401
    surbiton said:

    Nobel Peace Prize Committee should take back Aung San Suu Kyi's award. She is orchestrating or certainly overlooking genocide.

    Sadly I think you are right.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,090
    FF43 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It looks like the government might not have the votes for its planned Henry VIII clauses.

    If Mrs May loses parliamentary votes on something that fundamental then she's a goner.

    If she can't get that bill through then surely Brexit is a goner too?
    The problem is that any failure to deliver on Brexit will see a huge backlash against those scheming to prevent the democratic vote of the people
    More likely a huge backlash against the incompetents who are supposed to be running the country.
    Not if the EU are seen to be the cause
    As has been said many times before, the EU's stance has been entirely predictable. Of course the Mail and hard core leavers will blame the EU but I suspect many who voted leave and nearly all remain voters will blame our UK government.
    Not as simple as that - depends on the narrative but I can understand you expressing your desired outcome
    The narrative would be (a) to the British public - thanks to the skill and dedication of the Conservative government Brexit is a huge success and it's all the fault of the EU. (b) to the EU: we love you, we love you, we love you. Give us a trade deal. Pretty please? It's all your fault.

    Hmm, tricky. As far as the government is concerned Brexit has to be declared a success.
    Agree with that though there will be many and various views of the success or otherwise
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,338
    edited September 2017
    May must go!

    From the most accurate pollster at the general election, in terms of VI

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/904105012342661120
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,837
    FF43 said:

    Hmm, tricky. As far as the government is concerned Brexit has to be declared a success.

    If declaring it a success is impossible, is it better for them to declare it a bit crap really but the best we could do, or to declare it an abject failure, draw a line under it and pretend it never happened?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    FF43 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It looks like the government might not have the votes for its planned Henry VIII clauses.

    If Mrs May loses parliamentary votes on something that fundamental then she's a goner.

    If she can't get that bill through then surely Brexit is a goner too?
    The problem is that any failure to deliver on Brexit will see a huge backlash against those scheming to prevent the democratic vote of the people
    More likely a huge backlash against the incompetents who are supposed to be running the country.
    Not if the EU are seen to be the cause
    As has been said many times before, the EU's stance has been entirely predictable. Of course the Mail and hard core leavers will blame the EU but I suspect many who voted leave and nearly all remain voters will blame our UK government.
    Not as simple as that - depends on the narrative but I can understand you expressing your desired outcome
    The narrative would be (a) to the British public - thanks to the skill and dedication of the Conservative government Brexit is a huge success and it's all the fault of the EU. (b) to the EU: we love you, we love you, we love you. Give us a trade deal. Pretty please? It's all your fault.

    Hmm, tricky. As far as the government is concerned Brexit has to be declared a success.
    Good point it will be a mighty tricky sell. Who'd be PM eh? No tory other than Theresa fancies it at the mo apparently.

    Anyway, I am off on a week's cruise tomorrow and as I am too tight to pay P&Os extortionate internet access charges, I'll be missing PB for a week...

    I wonder what you'll all be talking about by the time I get back? Er, let me see if I can guess...
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    May must go!

    From the most accurate pollster at the general election, in terms of VI

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/904105012342661120

    Platinum Standard.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,371
    edited September 2017
    Mrs May should have listened to Mike:
    Can we end this snap election speculation?
    - Mike Smithson, March 30th, 2017.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.

    To be replaced by whom? For what purpose? In what way will transferring the leadership either help the party or the reputation of the next leader, who would then be tarnished with the unavoidable messiness of the Brexit deal?

    Far better for both the party and the leadership hopefuls to let May draw off all the poison of Brexit so the next leader won't be immediately toxified by it.

    Again, I've go no love for the loser May. But I'll be damned if we lose the country to Momentum just because some Tories want her out immediately due to personal dislike.
    Because I, and many others, have no faith in Mrs May being able to deliver a decent Brexit, a bad Brexit increases the chances of Corbyn as PM, that's why she needs to go.

    Just look at her attempted power grab with the Henry VIII clauses.
    Are any of the likely candidates really going to be able to deliver a "decent" Brexit? It's largely out of our hands - we either accede to the EU's demands and avoid an immediate crisis at the price of being humiliated, or we don't and crash out in chaos.

    For the record, I'd prefer the humiliation! But neither of these outcomes is going to be a vote winner whoever carries it through...
    Sounds about right to me also, but I reckon that the Government will spit the dummy, and we get WTO Brexit.
    Sadly I agree that looks most likely. Who then in the Tory party will want to take over from May to fight a GE on the back of rock hard Brexit? Nope, they'll let May lose that one, and let Labour deal with the post-Brexit mess.
    Again drawing conclusions on speculation. No one can say how this will pan out. You seem to be carried away on the idea labour with Corbyn will win the next GE no matter how matters develop.
    I am not really 'carried away' with it Big_G, it's just what I think is most likely to happen. Equally you think there will be a big backlash against the EU if we drop out with a hard Brexit. Neither of us knows, we could both be right, we could both be wrong.
    In the great tradition of PB we state our views and in the end come very much to the same conclusion
    :lol: Always a pleasure debating (and sometimes even agreeing) with you Big_G!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,090
    Benpointer said:

    FF43 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It looks like the government might not have the votes for its planned Henry VIII clauses.

    If Mrs May loses parliamentary votes on something that fundamental then she's a goner.

    If she can't get that bill through then surely Brexit is a goner too?
    The problem is that any failure to deliver on Brexit will see a huge backlash against those scheming to prevent the democratic vote of the people
    More likely a huge backlash against the incompetents who are supposed to be running the country.
    Not if the EU are seen to be the cause
    As has been said many times before, the EU's stance has been entirely predictable. Of course the Mail and hard core leavers will blame the EU but I suspect many who voted leave and nearly all remain voters will blame our UK government.
    Not as simple as that - depends on the narrative but I can understand you expressing your desired outcome
    The narrative would be (a) to the British public - thanks to the skill and dedication of the Conservative government Brexit is a huge success and it's all the fault of the EU. (b) to the EU: we love you, we love you, we love you. Give us a trade deal. Pretty please? It's all your fault.

    Hmm, tricky. As far as the government is concerned Brexit has to be declared a success.
    Good point it will be a mighty tricky sell. Who'd be PM eh? No tory other than Theresa fancies it at the mo apparently.

    Anyway, I am off on a week's cruise tomorrow and as I am too tight to pay P&Os extortionate internet access charges, I'll be missing PB for a week...

    I wonder what you'll all be talking about by the time I get back? Er, let me see if I can guess...
    Hope you have a great cruise. Going ourselves in five weeks with Princes from Rome to the Aegean.

    We get 500 minutes internet between us but it is very expensive otherwise
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,401
    williamglenn said:

    FF43 said:

    Hmm, tricky. As far as the government is concerned Brexit has to be declared a success.

    If declaring it a success is impossible, is it better for them to declare it a bit crap really but the best we could do, or to declare it an abject failure, draw a line under it and pretend it never happened?
    Like John Major and the Poll Tax. "We made a mistake." Possible but hard to envisage. I think of it happened, a Labour government would more likely ring the changes.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    Survation.‏ @Survation 5m5 minutes ago
    More
    We have a new political poll out in tomorrow's MoS. LAB 43% (+2) CON 38% (nc) LD 7% (-1) UKIP 4% (-2*) Others 7% (+1) (chg since July 15th)

    OHHHHHH JEEEERRRREEEEMMMMY COOOOOORRRRBYN
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    foxinsoxuk said:

    surbiton said:

    Nobel Peace Prize Committee should take back Aung San Suu Kyi's award. She is orchestrating or certainly overlooking genocide.

    The Nobel Peace prize has been beyond satire since Kissinger won it.

    Burma is a complex place politically. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi does not have sole contol. She has a tiger to ride.
    That argument runs hollow. It has been said that if she does something, she will be removed from power.

    What sort of power has she got then that she cannot stop genocide ?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,090
    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    blueblue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm feeling quite confident about my bet that Mrs May will be gone by the start of the 2018 summer recess.

    To be replaced by whom? For what purpose? In what way will transferring the leadership either help the party or the reputation of the next leader, who would then be tarnished with the unavoidable messiness of the Brexit deal?

    Far better for both the party and the leadership hopefuls to let May draw off all the poison of Brexit so the next leader won't be immediately toxified by it.

    Again, I've go no love for the loser May. But I'll be damned if we lose the country to Momentum just because some Tories want her out immediately due to personal dislike.
    Because I, and many others, have no faith in Mrs May being able to deliver a decent Brexit, a bad Brexit increases the chances of Corbyn as PM, that's why she needs to go.

    Just look at her attempted power grab with the Henry VIII clauses.
    Are any of the likely candidates really going to be able to deliver a "decent" Brexit? It's largely out of our hands - we either accede to the EU's demands and avoid an immediate crisis at the price of being humiliated, or we don't and crash out in chaos.

    For the record, I'd prefer the humiliation! But neither of these outcomes is going to be a vote winner whoever carries it through...
    Sounds about right to me also, but I reckon that the Government will spit the dummy, and we get WTO Brexit.
    Sadly I agree that looks most likely. Who then in the Tory party will want to take over from May to fight a GE on the back of rock hard Brexit? Nope, they'll let May lose that one, and let Labour deal with the post-Brexit mess.
    Again drawing conclusions on speculation. No one can say how this will pan out. You seem to be carried away on the idea labour with Corbyn will win the next GE no matter how matters develop.
    I am not really 'carried away' with it Big_G, it's just what I think is most likely to happen. Equally you think there will be a big backlash against the EU if we drop out with a hard Brexit. Neither of us knows, we could both be right, we could both be wrong.
    In the great tradition of PB we state our views and in the end come very much to the same conclusion
    :lol: Always a pleasure debating (and sometimes even agreeing) with you Big_G!
    Thanks and we will still be here when you return no doubt going on and on and on about you know what
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,338
    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/904105012342661120
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    bigjohnowls said:

    Survation.‏ @Survation 5m5 minutes ago
    More
    We have a new political poll out in tomorrow's MoS. LAB 43% (+2) CON 38% (nc) LD 7% (-1) UKIP 4% (-2*) Others 7% (+1) (chg since July 15th)

    OHHHHHH JEEEERRRREEEEMMMMY COOOOOORRRRBYN

    Depending on the Scotland split, that's borderline Lab Maj territory.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,338
    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/904108248013340672
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    bigjohnowls said:

    Survation.‏ @Survation 5m5 minutes ago
    More
    We have a new political poll out in tomorrow's MoS. LAB 43% (+2) CON 38% (nc) LD 7% (-1) UKIP 4% (-2*) Others 7% (+1) (chg since July 15th)

    OHHHHHH JEEEERRRREEEEMMMMY COOOOOORRRRBYN

    YOOOU'RE NOOOT THE PEEE - EEEMMMMMMM!

    YOOOU'RE NOOOT THE PEEE - EEEMMMMMMM!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,657
    edited September 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    May must go!

    From the most accurate pollster at the general election, in terms of VI

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/904105012342661120

    Survation had only Boris taking the Tories higher than May in last month's Survation, will be interesting to see if they have a similar poll tomorrow.

    UKIP are on 4% in that Survation, they got 1% at the general election so if the Tories squeeze UKIP they are on 41% then they just need 1% from Labour to be level pegging
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    blueblue said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Survation.‏ @Survation 5m5 minutes ago
    More
    We have a new political poll out in tomorrow's MoS. LAB 43% (+2) CON 38% (nc) LD 7% (-1) UKIP 4% (-2*) Others 7% (+1) (chg since July 15th)

    OHHHHHH JEEEERRRREEEEMMMMY COOOOOORRRRBYN

    YOOOU'RE NOOOT THE PEEE - EEEMMMMMMM!

    YOOOU'RE NOOOT THE PEEE - EEEMMMMMMM!
    Yet
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    surbiton said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    surbiton said:

    Nobel Peace Prize Committee should take back Aung San Suu Kyi's award. She is orchestrating or certainly overlooking genocide.

    The Nobel Peace prize has been beyond satire since Kissinger won it.

    Burma is a complex place politically. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi does not have sole contol. She has a tiger to ride.
    That argument runs hollow. It has been said that if she does something, she will be removed from power.

    What sort of power has she got then that she cannot stop genocide ?
    When I was last in Burma she was still under house arrest, and it was a military police state. It was about the only time that I have travelled solo in a police state, and a rather unnerving experience, with spies and informers everywhere.

    You cannot divorce a country from its history, and the last century in Burma has been very bloody. I am not unsympathetic to the religious minorities in Burma, and my oldest Burmese friend is a Muslim who spent 7 years in the Jungle as punishment for his participation in the 1988 student protests.

    Burma is a lovely country, and these are delightful people, but with a very dark history.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,523
    foxinsoxuk said:

    surbiton said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    surbiton said:

    Nobel Peace Prize Committee should take back Aung San Suu Kyi's award. She is orchestrating or certainly overlooking genocide.

    The Nobel Peace prize has been beyond satire since Kissinger won it.

    Burma is a complex place politically. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi does not have sole contol. She has a tiger to ride.
    That argument runs hollow. It has been said that if she does something, she will be removed from power.

    What sort of power has she got then that she cannot stop genocide ?
    When I was last in Burma she was still under house arrest, and it was a military police state. It was about the only time that I have travelled solo in a police state, and a rather unnerving experience, with spies and informers everywhere.

    You cannot divorce a country from its history, and the last century in Burma has been very bloody. I am not unsympathetic to the religious minorities in Burma, and my oldest Burmese friend is a Muslim who spent 7 years in the Jungle as punishment for his participation in the 1988 student protests.

    Burma is a lovely country, and these are delightful people, but with a very dark history.
    Indeed it is. However, tying patriotism in with membership of a particular religion is a recipe for disaster.
    Our own history has shown that.
    Moving from a Police State to a functioning democracy is hard and involves many compromises. It also requires heroes of the liberation to speak out and lead as Mandela did.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,657
    edited September 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/904108248013340672

    Tory and Leave voters want to leave the single market straight away in 2019, though a plurality of all voters support a transition period
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,090
    Survation in Mail

    Next GE - if May and Corbyn are still leaders who will win

    Corbyn 40 - May 39%

    Should the tories copy labour's soft Brexit vow to keep UK in the EU single market

    Yes 49%
    No 27%
    Dn 24%

    Is it good or bad to leave the EU with no deal

    Bad 58%
    Good 28%
    DN 14%

    Is May bluffing when she says she could walk away with no Brexit deal

    Yes 46%
    No 18%
    DN 36%

    Clear evidence of a shift towards a softer Brexit
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,523
    blueblue said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Survation.‏ @Survation 5m5 minutes ago
    More
    We have a new political poll out in tomorrow's MoS. LAB 43% (+2) CON 38% (nc) LD 7% (-1) UKIP 4% (-2*) Others 7% (+1) (chg since July 15th)

    OHHHHHH JEEEERRRREEEEMMMMY COOOOOORRRRBYN

    YOOOU'RE NOOOT THE PEEE - EEEMMMMMMM!

    YOOOU'RE NOOOT THE PEEE - EEEMMMMMMM!
    Given the current shambles, I bet he's glad he isn't.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,090
    dixiedean said:

    blueblue said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Survation.‏ @Survation 5m5 minutes ago
    More
    We have a new political poll out in tomorrow's MoS. LAB 43% (+2) CON 38% (nc) LD 7% (-1) UKIP 4% (-2*) Others 7% (+1) (chg since July 15th)

    OHHHHHH JEEEERRRREEEEMMMMY COOOOOORRRRBYN

    YOOOU'RE NOOOT THE PEEE - EEEMMMMMMM!

    YOOOU'RE NOOOT THE PEEE - EEEMMMMMMM!
    Given the current shambles, I bet he's glad he isn't.
    I think lots of people are glad he isn't
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,657
    edited September 2017
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Survation in Mail

    Next GE - if May and Corbyn are still leaders who will win

    Corbyn 40 - May 39%

    Should the tories copy labour's soft Brexit vow to keep UK in the EU single market

    Yes 49%
    No 27%
    Dn 24%

    Is it good or bad to leave the EU with no deal

    Bad 58%
    Good 28%
    DN 14%

    Is May bluffing when she says she could walk away with no Brexit deal

    Yes 46%
    No 18%
    DN 36%

    Clear evidence of a shift towards a softer Brexit

    Or at least a transition period, ask voters if they want free movement left uncontrolled permanently and to pay 50-100 billion Euros to the EU and you would get a different answer
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,090
    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Survation in Mail

    Next GE - if May and Corbyn are still leaders who will win

    Corbyn 40 - May 39%

    Should the tories copy labour's soft Brexit vow to keep UK in the EU single market

    Yes 49%
    No 27%
    Dn 24%

    Is it good or bad to leave the EU with no deal

    Bad 58%
    Good 28%
    DN 14%

    Is May bluffing when she says she could walk away with no Brexit deal

    Yes 46%
    No 18%
    DN 36%

    Clear evidence of a shift towards a softer Brexit

    Or at least a transition period, ask voters if they want free movement left uncontrolled permanently and you would get a different idea
    I have little doubt the transition period will be as things are now but the issue is how long. Legal opinion is that much more than two years would be challlenged in the ECJ as it would be seen as a mechanism to avoid Brexit
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,523
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    dixiedean said:

    blueblue said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Survation.‏ @Survation 5m5 minutes ago
    More
    We have a new political poll out in tomorrow's MoS. LAB 43% (+2) CON 38% (nc) LD 7% (-1) UKIP 4% (-2*) Others 7% (+1) (chg since July 15th)

    OHHHHHH JEEEERRRREEEEMMMMY COOOOOORRRRBYN

    YOOOU'RE NOOOT THE PEEE - EEEMMMMMMM!

    YOOOU'RE NOOOT THE PEEE - EEEMMMMMMM!
    Given the current shambles, I bet he's glad he isn't.
    I think lots of people are glad he isn't
    Indeed.
This discussion has been closed.