This is a market for mainly laying, not backing (in conjunction with the next Conservative leader market).
Jeremy Corbyn is a lay for me. He might be the next but one but he's unlikely to be next.
If you do want someone to back, Michael Gove at 40/1 looks worth considering. He's got the experience and stature, and his Conservative rivals' missteps may improve his chances by default. Since he's holidayed with the editor of the Evening Standard, he might well have newspaper backing at the right moment.
He looks like a gimp, is a massive drama queen and enjoys plotting and leaking far too much.
But, he is easily the cleverest and most able of everyone in the cabinet. Just look at how he makes a big impact in weeks wherever he goes. Education, Justice, Environment..
He's a 40/1 shot. Considering that any replacement for Theresa May as Prime Minister from within the Conservative party needs to have unquestionable experience and a public profile, that is surely too long a price. He's on a very short list of conceivables.
I think he'd be a dismal choice but none of the options for the Conservatives look exactly compelling (and if any of them did, they'd already be in the post).
I think 40/1 is indeed a good tip.
He is surely amongst the 5 people who could feasibly take over the role at a moments notice:
Hammond Davis Boris Gove Lord Hague (at a real push as caretaker)
I'd add Amber Rudd to that list. She's probably the closest thing that the Conservatives currently have to a unity candidate.
I typed Rudd but then demurred - I don't think she has quite the stature necessary.
That said, I haven't a clue what she stands for - which means you're likely entirely correct about her being a unity candidate.
Hague is an intriguing suggestion. He's been reasonably sane on the referendum while still trying to argue the UK's case in negotiations. I've been promoting (tongue in cheek) Ken Clarke as the caretaker leader but perhaps Hague could really do the job.
According to the Guardian "British pensioners who have retired to other EU countries will continue to have their healthcare paid for by the NHS post-Brexit, after a deal in principle was agreed by negotiators in Brussels.”
Also 'Other areas of agreement included protection for “frontier workers”, those who live in one EU member state and work in another. This would include people who live in the UK and commute to Europe, or Britons settled in one country, for example Germany, who commute to work in another, say Luxembourg.
Also, professional qualifications would be recognised across the bloc after Brexit, allowing lawyers, doctors, accountants, seafarers, train drivers and others who have moved to or from the UK to another EU country to work under their existing credentials.’
Agreement on recognizing EU and EEA professional qualifications is an interesting concession. It is a major bureaucratic barrier dropped that would permenantly advantage Greek or Polish NHS staff over non EU applicants. Getting professional registration otherwise often takes 6 months or more. Presumably it applies across other trades like building too.
I note the word used is ‘moved’, although the implication is that one can still move.
This is a market for mainly laying, not backing (in conjunction with the next Conservative leader market).
Jeremy Corbyn is a lay for me. He might be the next but one but he's unlikely to be next.
If you do want someone to back, Michael Gove at 40/1 looks worth considering. He's got the experience and stature, and his Conservative rivals' missteps may improve his chances by default. Since he's holidayed with the editor of the Evening Standard, he might well have newspaper backing at the right moment.
He looks like a gimp, is a massive drama queen and enjoys plotting and leaking far too much.
But, he is easily the cleverest and most able of everyone in the cabinet. Just look at how he makes a big impact in weeks wherever he goes. Education, Justice, Environment..
He's a 40/1 shot. Considering that any replacement for Theresa May as Prime Minister from within the Conservative party needs to have unquestionable experience and a public profile, that is surely too long a price. He's on a very short list of conceivables.
I think he'd be a dismal choice but none of the options for the Conservatives look exactly compelling (and if any of them did, they'd already be in the post).
I think 40/1 is indeed a good tip.
He is surely amongst the 5 people who could feasibly take over the role at a moments notice:
Hammond Davis Boris Gove Lord Hague (at a real push as caretaker)
I'd add Amber Rudd to that list. She's probably the closest thing that the Conservatives currently have to a unity candidate.
I typed Rudd but then demurred - I don't think she has quite the stature necessary.
That said, I haven't a clue what she stands for - which means you're likely entirely correct about her being a unity candidate.
Hague is an intriguing suggestion. He's been reasonably sane on the referendum while still trying to argue the UK's case in negotiations. I've been promoting (tongue in cheek) Ken Clarke as the caretaker leader but perhaps Hague could really do the job.
I would have thought he might have become the unity candidate last year, if he had still been in the Commons.
But we haven't had a PM in the Lords since 1963, and not one who stayed there since 1902. So realistically, he's out.
This is a market for mainly laying, not backing (in conjunction with the next Conservative leader market).
Jeremy Corbyn is a lay for me. He might be the next but one but he's unlikely to be next.
If you do want someone to back, Michael Gove at 40/1 looks worth considering. He's got the experience and stature, and his Conservative rivals' missteps may improve his chances by default. Since he's holidayed with the editor of the Evening Standard, he might well have newspaper backing at the right moment.
He looks like a gimp, is a massive drama queen and enjoys plotting and leaking far too much.
But, he is easily the cleverest and most able of everyone in the cabinet. Just look at how he makes a big impact in weeks wherever he goes. Education, Justice, Environment..
He's a 40/1 shot. Considering that any replacement for Theresa May as Prime Minister from within the Conservative party needs to have unquestionable experience and a public profile, that is surely too long a price. He's on a very short list of conceivables.
I think he'd be a dismal choice but none of the options for the Conservatives look exactly compelling (and if any of them did, they'd already be in the post).
I think 40/1 is indeed a good tip.
He is surely amongst the 5 people who could feasibly take over the role at a moments notice:
Hammond Davis Boris Gove Lord Hague (at a real push as caretaker)
I'd add Amber Rudd to that list. She's probably the closest thing that the Conservatives currently have to a unity candidate.
I typed Rudd but then demurred - I don't think she has quite the stature necessary.
That said, I haven't a clue what she stands for - which means you're likely entirely correct about her being a unity candidate.
Hague is an intriguing suggestion. He's been reasonably sane on the referendum while still trying to argue the UK's case in negotiations. I've been promoting (tongue in cheek) Ken Clarke as the caretaker leader but perhaps Hague could really do the job.
More than capable - and I suspect he has a sense of duty that would ensure he took the post of it was in the offing.
According to the Guardian "British pensioners who have retired to other EU countries will continue to have their healthcare paid for by the NHS post-Brexit, after a deal in principle was agreed by negotiators in Brussels.”
Also 'Other areas of agreement included protection for “frontier workers”, those who live in one EU member state and work in another. This would include people who live in the UK and commute to Europe, or Britons settled in one country, for example Germany, who commute to work in another, say Luxembourg.
Also, professional qualifications would be recognised across the bloc after Brexit, allowing lawyers, doctors, accountants, seafarers, train drivers and others who have moved to or from the UK to another EU country to work under their existing credentials.’
Agreement on recognizing EU and EEA professional qualifications is an interesting concession. It is a major bureaucratic barrier dropped that would permenantly advantage Greek or Polish NHS staff over non EU applicants. Getting professional registration otherwise often takes 6 months or more. Presumably it applies across other trades like building too.
I note the word used is ‘moved’, although the implication is tyhat one can still move.
Yes, the detail will matter. Surely those already with professional registration couldn't have it removed anyway.
This is a market for mainly laying, not backing (in conjunction with the next Conservative leader market).
Jeremy Corbyn is a lay for me. He might be the next but one but he's unlikely to be next.
If you do want someone to back, Michael Gove at 40/1 looks worth considering. He's got the experience and stature, and his Conservative rivals' missteps may improve his chances by default. Since he's holidayed with the editor of the Evening Standard, he might well have newspaper backing at the right moment.
He looks like a gimp, is a massive drama queen and enjoys plotting and leaking far too much.
But, he is easily the cleverest and most able of everyone in the cabinet. Just look at how he makes a big impact in weeks wherever he goes. Education, Justice, Environment..
He's a 40/1 shot. Considering that any replacement for Theresa May as Prime Minister from within the Conservative party needs to have unquestionable experience and a public profile, that is surely too long a price. He's on a very short list of conceivables.
I think he'd be a dismal choice but none of the options for the Conservatives look exactly compelling (and if any of them did, they'd already be in the post).
I think 40/1 is indeed a good tip.
He is surely amongst the 5 people who could feasibly take over the role at a moments notice:
Hammond Davis Boris Gove Lord Hague (at a real push as caretaker)
I'd add Amber Rudd to that list. She's probably the closest thing that the Conservatives currently have to a unity candidate.
I typed Rudd but then demurred - I don't think she has quite the stature necessary.
That said, I haven't a clue what she stands for - which means you're likely entirely correct about her being a unity candidate.
Hague is an intriguing suggestion. He's been reasonably sane on the referendum while still trying to argue the UK's case in negotiations. I've been promoting (tongue in cheek) Ken Clarke as the caretaker leader but perhaps Hague could really do the job.
More than capable - and I suspect he has a sense of duty that would ensure he took the post of it was in the offing.
Wow. He claims did offer Associate Membership to the UK.
So we can be fairly sure that was one thing that wasn't on the table!
Seriously, I don't know why anyone would bother listening to Verhofstadt. He has about the same grasp of reality as Juncker without the excuse of a large intake of alcohol to explain his delusions.
This is a market for mainly laying, not backing (in conjunction with the next Conservative leader market).
Jeremy Corbyn is a lay for me. He might be the next but one but he's unlikely to be next.
If you do want someone to back, Michael Gove at 40/1 looks worth considering. He's got the experience and stature, and his Conservative rivals' missteps may improve his chances by default. Since he's holidayed with the editor of the Evening Standard, he might well have newspaper backing at the right moment.
He looks like a gimp, is a massive drama queen and enjoys plotting and leaking far too much.
But, he is easily the cleverest and most able of everyone in the cabinet. Just look at how he makes a big impact in weeks wherever he goes. Education, Justice, Environment..
He's a 40/1 shot. Considering that any replacement for Theresa May as Prime Minister from within the Conservative party needs to have unquestionable experience and a public profile, that is surely too long a price. He's on a very short list of conceivables.
I think he'd be a dismal choice but none of the options for the Conservatives look exactly compelling (and if any of them did, they'd already be in the post).
I think 40/1 is indeed a good tip.
He is surely amongst the 5 people who could feasibly take over the role at a moments notice:
Hammond Davis Boris Gove Lord Hague (at a real push as caretaker)
I'd add Amber Rudd to that list. She's probably the closest thing that the Conservatives currently have to a unity candidate.
The Tories poll worse under Rudd than under May with Survation against Corbyn
This is a market for mainly laying, not backing (in conjunction with the next Conservative leader market).
Jeremy Corbyn is a lay for me. He might be the next but one but he's unlikely to be next.
If you do want someone to back, Michael Gove at 40/1 looks worth considering. He's got the experience and stature, and his Conservative rivals' missteps may improve his chances by default. Since he's holidayed with the editor of the Evening Standard, he might well have newspaper backing at the right moment.
He looks like a gimp, is a massive drama queen and enjoys plotting and leaking far too much.
But, he is easily the cleverest and most able of everyone in the cabinet. Just look at how he makes a big impact in weeks wherever he goes. Education, Justice, Environment..
He's a 40/1 shot. Considering that any replacement for Theresa May as Prime Minister from within the Conservative party needs to have unquestionable experience and a public profile, that is surely too long a price. He's on a very short list of conceivables.
I think he'd be a dismal choice but none of the options for the Conservatives look exactly compelling (and if any of them did, they'd already be in the post).
I think 40/1 is indeed a good tip.
He is surely amongst the 5 people who could feasibly take over the role at a moments notice:
Hammond Davis Boris Gove Lord Hague (at a real push as caretaker)
I'd add Amber Rudd to that list. She's probably the closest thing that the Conservatives currently have to a unity candidate.
I typed Rudd but then demurred - I don't think she has quite the stature necessary.
That said, I haven't a clue what she stands for - which means you're likely entirely correct about her being a unity candidate.
Hague is an intriguing suggestion. He's been reasonably sane on the referendum while still trying to argue the UK's case in negotiations. I've been promoting (tongue in cheek) Ken Clarke as the caretaker leader but perhaps Hague could really do the job.
He has no interest in the job understandably having been trounced at the 2001 general election when he last did it
Indeed and Boris at least has the executive experience of running a city of 8 million people
Do you think he ran London well ?
Spare me all the usual guff about how he got re-elected and how many votes he got. I'm a Londoner - apart from the bikes, there's very little evidence Boris was ever Mayor at all.
He was all gimmicks - he milked the Olympics for which most of the work had been done in the Livingstone era and played for the cameras but in so many other areas, he did nothing.
Did he fight Theresa May over the closure of local Police stations in places like East Ham and Epping ? I don't recall.
Without in any way disagreeing with your comments on Boris - please name me one big, tangible achievement that Corbyn has to show for 34 years as an MP.
You see my points?
It's well known how much I loathe Corbyn. Boris at least has a sense of humour. However, all my reasons for hating Corbyn apply equally to him, apart from the one about stupidity - whatever else he is, Boris Johnson is certainly not stupid.
That said, knowing that Corbyn is far more successful electorally than numerous deserving candidates, I do genuinely worry that Boris might win an election and be PM. The only thing that stands in the way is his lack of support in the PCP, which may stop him getting to the last two (and that's the real reason he was forced out last time, whatever he says in public).
If Boris continues to top the polls as most favoured next Tory leader he will get to the final 2 with Davis (Tory MPs want to keep their seats above all) and Gove will be on board this time with a promise of a big job, Boris I think will then narrowly win with members, especially if it is after Davis has completed Brexit talks are talks
Of course he'd win among the members. We all know that. I just very much doubt if he would get to that stage of the ballot. He'll have to show far more skill and success as a top politician to convince the backbenchers he's fit to be PM.
But that also depends on who else is standing. If the Remainers coalesced around one candidate, oddly that would improve his chances.
It will have to be a Leave this time and as the next Tory leader automatically becomes PM someone with a big Cabinet post
There was nothing wrong with right to buy in principle just the revenues raised should have been used to build new homes
But they weren't, were they, therefore entirely screwed up in practice.
Agreed. That was one of the big shortcomings with Thatcherism generally - many capital items were sold and the money treated solely as income (the nationalised industries spring to mind).
Based on a tiny sample, it looks like the safe, grey, middle candidate -- supported as much for who they are not, rather than who they are -- is favoured to take over in government as prime minister, so John Major (not Hestletine) or Theresa May (not Boris or Gove). I'd imagine that favours Philip Hammond and Amber Rudd if Theresa May resigns, and even more so if May is forced to stand down.
Boris's main hope is that if Labour has a huge poll lead, he might be seen as a vote-winner and MPs hold their noses to save their seats. Otherwise, Boris is disliked by many MPs and what is worse, distrusted, and much of his "joke" support has leached away to Jacob Rees-Mogg. Gove and Davis probably have too many enemies and no compensatory qualities like Boris.
If the contest is towards the end of the Brexit negotiations, that will probably favour Hammond rather than Davis if, as I expect, the final package looks a lot like Hammond's and the Treasury's position.
This is a market for mainly laying, not backing (in conjunction with the next Conservative leader market).
Jeremy Corbyn is a lay for me. He might be the next but one but he's unlikely to be next.
If you do want someone to back, Michael Gove at 40/1 looks worth considering. He's got the experience and stature, and his Conservative rivals' missteps may improve his chances by default. Since he's holidayed with the editor of the Evening Standard, he might well have newspaper backing at the right moment.
He looks like a gimp, is a massive drama queen and enjoys plotting and leaking far too much.
But, he is easily the cleverest and most able of everyone in the cabinet. Just look at how he makes a big impact in weeks wherever he goes. Education, Justice, Environment..
He's a 40/1 shot. Considering that any replacement for Theresa May as Prime Minister from within the Conservative party needs to have unquestionable experience and a public profile, that is surely too long a price. He's on a very short list of conceivables.
I think he'd be a dismal choice but none of the options for the Conservatives look exactly compelling (and if any of them did, they'd already be in the post).
I think 40/1 is indeed a good tip.
He is surely amongst the 5 people who could feasibly take over the role at a moments notice:
Hammond Davis Boris Gove Lord Hague (at a real push as caretaker)
I'd add Amber Rudd to that list. She's probably the closest thing that the Conservatives currently have to a unity candidate.
I typed Rudd but then demurred - I don't think she has quite the stature necessary.
That said, I haven't a clue what she stands for - which means you're likely entirely correct about her being a unity candidate.
Hague is an intriguing suggestion. He's been reasonably sane on the referendum while still trying to argue the UK's case in negotiations. I've been promoting (tongue in cheek) Ken Clarke as the caretaker leader but perhaps Hague could really do the job.
He has no interest in the job understandably having been trounced at the 2001 general election when he last did it
At least Hague in 2001 did what TMay failed to do on June 8th end up with a net increase in number of CON MPs
There was nothing wrong with right to buy in principle just the revenues raised should have been used to build new homes
But they weren't, were they, therefore entirely screwed up in practice.
Agreed. That was one of the big shortcomings with Thatcherism generally - many capital items were sold and the money treated solely as income (the nationalised industries spring to mind).
This is a market for mainly laying, not backing (in conjunction with the next Conservative leader market).
Jeremy Corbyn is a lay for me. He might be the next but one but he's unlikely to be next.
If you do want someone to back, Michael Gove at 40/1 looks worth considering. He's got the experience and stature, and his Conservative rivals' missteps may improve his chances by default. Since he's holidayed with the editor of the Evening Standard, he might well have newspaper backing at the right moment.
He looks like a gimp, is a massive drama queen and enjoys plotting and leaking far too much.
But, he is easily the cleverest and most able of everyone in the cabinet. Just look at how he makes a big impact in weeks wherever he goes. Education, Justice, Environment..
He's a 40/1 shot. Considering that any replacement for Theresa May as Prime Minister from within the Conservative party needs to have unquestionable experience and a public profile, that is surely too long a price. He's on a very short list of conceivables.
I think he'd be a dismal choice but none of the options for the Conservatives look exactly compelling (and if any of them did, they'd already be in the post).
I think 40/1 is indeed a good tip.
He is surely amongst the 5 people who could feasibly take over the role at a moments notice:
Hammond Davis Boris Gove Lord Hague (at a real push as caretaker)
I'd add Amber Rudd to that list. She's probably the closest thing that the Conservatives currently have to a unity candidate.
I typed Rudd but then demurred - I don't think she has quite the stature necessary.
That said, I haven't a clue what she stands for - which means you're likely entirely correct about her being a unity candidate.
Hague is an intriguing suggestion. He's been reasonably sane on the referendum while still trying to argue the UK's case in negotiations. I've been promoting (tongue in cheek) Ken Clarke as the caretaker leader but perhaps Hague could really do the job.
More than capable - and I suspect he has a sense of duty that would ensure he took the post of it was in the offing.
Can one resign (or renounce) a life peerage?
Not sure. But he could always be upgraded to a hereditary peerage and then he would have the right to stand for the Commons (like Ancram and Thurso).
Based on a tiny sample, it looks like the safe, grey, middle candidate -- supported as much for who they are not, rather than who they are -- is favoured to take over in government as prime minister, so John Major (not Hestletine) or Theresa May (not Boris or Gove). I'd imagine that favours Philip Hammond and Amber Rudd if Theresa May resigns, and even more so if May is forced to stand down.
Boris's main hope is that if Labour has a huge poll lead, he might be seen as a vote-winner and MPs hold their noses to save their seats. Otherwise, Boris is disliked by many MPs and what is worse, distrusted, and much of his "joke" support has leached away to Jacob Rees-Mogg. Gove and Davis probably have too many enemies and no compensatory qualities like Boris.
If the contest is towards the end of the Brexit negotiations, that will probably favour Hammond rather than Davis if, as I expect, the final package looks a lot like Hammond's and the Treasury's position.
Only if MPs decide now members decide and that boosts Boris plus Hammond and Rudd both poll worse than May v Corbyn while Boris does fractionally better than May and of course Churchill like Boris was not grey when WW2 broke out and he became leader and Brexit is another big issue and Leavers will want a true Brexiteer to ensure 'Brexit means Brexit'
There was nothing wrong with right to buy in principle just the revenues raised should have been used to build new homes
But they weren't, were they, therefore entirely screwed up in practice.
Agreed. That was one of the big shortcomings with Thatcherism generally - many capital items were sold and the money treated solely as income (the nationalised industries spring to mind).
Indeed and Boris at least has the executive experience of running a city of 8 million people
Do you think he ran London well ?
Spare me all the usual guff about how he got re-elected and how many votes he got. I'm a Londoner - apart from the bikes, there's very little evidence Boris was ever Mayor at all.
He was all gimmicks - he milked the Olympics for which most of the work had been done in the Livingstone era and played for the cameras but in so many other areas, he did nothing.
Did he fight Theresa May over the closure of local Police stations in places like East Ham and Epping ? I don't recall.
Without in any way disagreeing with your comments on Boris - please name me one big, tangible achievement that Corbyn has to show for 34 years as an MP.
You see my points?
It's well known how much I loathe Corbyn. Boris at least has a sense of humour. However, all my reasons for hating Corbyn apply equally to him, apart from the one about stupidity - whatever else he is, Boris Johnson is certainly not stupid.
That said, knowing that Corbyn is far more successful electorally than numerous deserving candidates, I do genuinely worry that Boris might win an election and be PM. The only thing that stands in the way is his lack of support in the PCP, which may stop him getting to the last two (and that's the real reason he was forced out last time, whatever he says in public).
If Boris continues to top the polls as most favoured next Tory leader he will get to the final 2 with Davis (Tory MPs want to keep their seats above all) and Gove will be on board this time with a promise of a big job, Boris I think will then narrowly win with members, especially if it is after Davis has completed Brexit talks are talks
Of course he'd win among the members. We all know that. I just very much doubt if he would get to that stage of the ballot. He'll have to show far more skill and success as a top politician to convince the backbenchers he's fit to be PM.
But that also depends on who else is standing. If the Remainers coalesced around one candidate, oddly that would improve his chances.
It will have to be a Leave this time and as the next Tory leader automatically becomes PM someone with a big Cabinet post
There is no law of physics that says it has to be a Leaver. Indeed, once we have actually left the Leavers will probably move on from it and be less concerned about positions on Europe, especially now it is becoming clear that the UK government expect no deal from these talks.
The MPs, on the other hand, will be looking for a credible PM. And however you cut it, that ain't Boris.
This is a market for mainly laying, not backing (in conjunction with the next Conservative leader market).
Jeremy Corbyn is a lay for me. He might be the next but one but he's unlikely to be next.
If you do want someone to back, Michael Gove at 40/1 looks worth considering. He's got the experience and stature, and his Conservative rivals' missteps may improve his chances by default. Since he's holidayed with the editor of the Evening Standard, he might well have newspaper backing at the right moment.
He looks like a gimp, is a massive drama queen and enjoys plotting and leaking far too much.
But, he is easily the cleverest and most able of everyone in the cabinet. Just look at how he makes a big impact in weeks wherever he goes. Education, Justice, Environment..
He's a 40/1 shot. Considering that any replacement for Theresa May as Prime Minister from within the Conservative party needs ost).
I think 40/1 is indeed a good tip.
He is surely amongst the 5 people who could feasibly take over the role at a moments notice:
Hammond Davis Boris Gove Lord Hague (at a real push as caretaker)
I'd add Amber Rudd to that list. She's probably the closest thing that the Conservatives currently have to a unity candidate.
I typed Rudd but then demurred - I don't think she has quite the stature necessary.
That said, I haven't a clue what she stands for - which means you're likely entirely correct about her being a unity candidate.
Hague is an intriguing suggestion. He's the job.
He has no interest in the job understandably having been trounced at the 2001 general election when he last did it
At least Hague in 2001 did what TMay failed to do on June 8th end up with a net increase in number of CON MPs
I was an activist in both campaigns, 2001 was abysmal we were crushed getting just 31% of the vote and little more than 160 seats in 2015 May got 42% (more than any other Tory leader I have campaigned for and 318 seats). In 2001 I campaigned in Braintree where Labour won by 350 by 2017 that was an 18000 Tory win.
Hague was the worst Tory leader since WW2, he is a brilliant orator like Foot but both were hopeless at crafting an electorally appealing message and winning votes and seats
This is a market for mainly laying, not backing (in conjunction with the next Conservative leader market).
Jeremy Corbyn is a lay for me. He might be the next but one but he's unlikely to be next.
If you do want someone to back, Michael Gove at 40/1 looks worth considering. He's got the experience and stature, and his Conservative rivals' missteps may improve his chances by default. Since he's holidayed with the editor of the Evening Standard, he might well have newspaper backing at the right moment.
He looks like a gimp, is a massive drama queen and enjoys plotting and leaking far too much.
But, he is easily the cleverest and most able of everyone in the cabinet. Just look at how he makes a big impact in weeks wherever he goes. Education, Justice, Environment..
He's a 40/1 shot. Considering that any replacement for Theresa May as Prime Minister from within the Conservative party needs to have unquestionable experience and a public profile, that is surely too long a price. He's on a very short list of conceivables.
I think he'd be a dismal choice but none of the options for the Conservatives look exactly compelling (and if any of them did, they'd already be in the post).
I think 40/1 is indeed a good tip.
He is surely amongst the 5 people who could feasibly take over the role at a moments notice:
Hammond Davis Boris Gove Lord Hague (at a real push as caretaker)
I'd add Amber Rudd to that list. She's probably the closest thing that the Conservatives currently have to a unity candidate.
I typed Rudd but then demurred - I don't think she has quite the stature necessary.
That said, I haven't a clue what she stands for - which means you're likely entirely correct about her being a unity candidate.
Hague is an intriguing suggestion. He's been reasonably sane on the referendum while still trying to argue the UK's case in negotiations. I've been promoting (tongue in cheek) Ken Clarke as the caretaker leader but perhaps Hague could really do the job.
He has no interest in the job understandably having been trounced at the 2001 general election when he last did it
At least Hague in 2001 did what TMay failed to do on June 8th end up with a net increase in number of CON MPs
Had he not left the Commons, Baron Hague might be in with a decent shout of a second term as Tory leader. As it is, it seems exceedingly unlikely.
This is a market for mainly laying, not backing (in conjunction with the next Conservative leader market).
Jeremy Corbyn is a lay for me. He might be the next but one but he's unlikely to be next.
If you do want someone to back, Michael Gove at 40/1 looks worth considering. He's got the experience and stature, and his Conservative rivals' missteps may improve his chances by default. Since he's holidayed with the editor of the Evening Standard, he might well have newspaper backing at the right moment.
He looks like a gimp, is a massive drama queen and enjoys plotting and leaking far too much.
But, he is easily the cleverest and most able of everyone in the cabinet. Just look at how he makes a big impact in weeks wherever he goes. Education, Justice, Environment..
He's a 40/1 shot. Considering that any replacement for Theresa May as Prime Minister from within the Conservative party needs to have unquestionable experience and a public profile, that is surely too long a price. He's on a very short list of conceivables.
I think he'd be a dismal choice but none of the options for the Conservatives look exactly compelling (and if any of them did, they'd already be in the post).
I think 40/1 is indeed a good tip.
He is surely amongst the 5 people who could feasibly take over the role at a moments notice:
Hammond Davis Boris Gove Lord Hague (at a real push as caretaker)
I'd add Amber Rudd to that list. She's probably the closest thing that the Conservatives currently have to a unity candidate.
I typed Rudd but then demurred - I don't think she has quite the stature necessary.
That said, I haven't a clue what she stands for - which means you're likely entirely correct about her being a unity candidate.
Hague is an intriguing suggestion. He's been reasonably sane on the referendum while still trying to argue the UK's case in negotiations. I've been promoting (tongue in cheek) Ken Clarke as the caretaker leader but perhaps Hague could really do the job.
He has no interest in the job understandably having been trounced at the 2001 general election when he last did it
At least Hague in 2001 did what TMay failed to do on June 8th end up with a net increase in number of CON MPs
Two, I think. George Osborne and Bob Spink. Hardly a resounding success.
Indeed and Boris at least has the executive experience of running a city of 8 million people
Do you think he ran London well ?
Spare me all the usual guff about how he got re-elected and how many votes he got. I'm a Londoner - apart from the bikes, there's very little evidence Boris was ever Mayor at all.
He was all gimmicks - he milked the Olympics for which most of the work had been done in the Livingstone era and played for the cameras but in so many other areas, he did nothing.
Did he fight Theresa May over the closure of local Police stations in places like East Ham and Epping ? I don't recall.
Without in any way disagreeing with your comments on Boris - please name me one big, tangible achievement that Corbyn has to show for 34 years as an MP.
You see my points?
It's well known how much I loathe Corbyn. Boris at least has a sense of humour. However, all my reasons for hating Corbyn apply equally to him, apart from the one about stupidity - whatever else he is, Boris Johnson is certainly not stupid.
That said, knowing that Corbyn is far more successful electorally than numerous deserving candidates, I do genuinely worry that Boris might win an election and be PM. The only thing that stands in the way is his lack of support in the PCP, which may stop him getting to the last two (and that's the real reason he was forced out last time, whatever he says in public).
If Boris continues to top the polls as most favoured next Tory leader he will get to are talks
Of course he'd win among PM.
But that also depends on who else is standing. If the Remainers coalesced around one candidate, oddly that would improve his chances.
It will have to be a Leave this time and as the next Tory leader automatically becomes PM someone with a big Cabinet post
There is no law of physics that says it has to be a Leaver. Indeed, once we have actually left the Leavers will probably move on from it and be less concerned about positions on Europe, especially now it is becoming clear that the UK government expect no deal from these talks.
The MPs, on the other hand, will be looking for a credible PM. And however you cut it, that ain't Boris.
Tory members will demand a Leaver especially with a transition period to ensure free movement is ultimately ended. The MPs at the end of the day want to save their seats and beat Corbyn and however you cut it the only current Tory able to do that is probably Boris
Amber Rudd as a unity candidate? She's one of the most over-promoted members of the cabinet and will be distracted during a general election due to her occupying a marginal seat. Plus, she's the Home Secretary, she heads the department responsible for producing Government PR disasters on a regular basis - how is that meant to help?
Tory members will demand a Leaver especially with a transition period to ensure free movement is ultimately ended. The MPs at the end of the day want to save their seats and beat Corbyn and however you cut it the only current Tory able to do that is probably Boris
Merely because May didn't beat Corbyn harder than a dominatrix paid by the lash isn't a sign that he isn't a weak and implausible leader. It is merely a sign that she ran a dreadful campaign. There is good reason to think that a sober, serious candidate willing to meet voters and offer them a positive message could do rather better.
Boris vs Corbyn would be two cheeks of the same arse. Two vacillating and inept populists with a long track record of incompetence and failure going against each other to see who can make the most outlandish promises to the biggest rallies. The only party celebrating that would be the Yellows.
As for 'Tory members will demand a Leaver,' I disagree. I think they will demand quality ahead of what will be archaic principle.
Based on a tiny sample, it looks like the safe, grey, middle candidate -- supported as much for who they are not, rather than who they are -- is favoured to take over in government as prime minister, so John Major (not Hestletine) or Theresa May (not Boris or Gove). I'd imagine that favours Philip Hammond and Amber Rudd if Theresa May resigns, and even more so if May is forced to stand down.
Boris's main hope is that if Labour has a huge poll lead, he might be seen as a vote-winner and MPs hold their noses to save their seats. Otherwise, Boris is disliked by many MPs and what is worse, distrusted, and much of his "joke" support has leached away to Jacob Rees-Mogg. Gove and Davis probably have too many enemies and no compensatory qualities like Boris.
If the contest is towards the end of the Brexit negotiations, that will probably favour Hammond rather than Davis if, as I expect, the final package looks a lot like Hammond's and the Treasury's position.
Only if MPs decide now members decide and that boosts Boris plus Hammond and Rudd both poll worse than May v Corbyn while Boris does fractionally better than May and of course Churchill like Boris was not grey when WW2 broke out and he became leader and Brexit is another big issue and Leavers will want a true Brexiteer to ensure 'Brexit means Brexit'
The members will not get a vote if the takeover is in government and especially if the PM is forced out. I could be wrong but that is what will govern my betting. It may be that not even MPs are consulted if the Cabinet agrees on a successor -- think Howard. Incidentally, the men in grey suits will need to check their choice with the DUP or the government will fall: another reason for not letting it go to a vote.
If Brexit is smooth and Theresa May leads the party into a 2022 election, then everything will be different and the members will make the final choice, but for betting purposes, it is too remote to have any more than a blanket probability.
Hammond to beat Rudd, or Boris if Labour has a big lead.
Tory members will demand a Leaver especially with a transition period to ensure free movement is ultimately ended. The MPs at the end of the day want to save their seats and beat Corbyn and however you cut it the only current Tory able to do that is probably Boris
The election of Corbyn as leader of the Labour Party clearly demonstrated you can be leader of a major party without the slightest qualification or aptitude for the job. Unfortunately you are probably right about Johnson.
This is a market for mainly laying, not backing (in conjunction with the next Conservative leader market).
If you do want someone to back, Michael Gove at 40/1 looks worth considering. He's got the experience and stature, and his Conservative rivals' missteps may improve his chances by default. Since he's holidayed with the editor of the Evening Standard, he might well have newspaper backing at the right moment.
He looks like a gimp, is a massive drama queen and enjoys plotting and leaking far too much.
But, he is easily the cleverest and most able of everyone in the cabinet. Just look at how he makes a big impact in weeks wherever he goes. Education, Justice, Environment..
He's a 40/1 shot. Considering that any replacement for Theresa May as Prime Minister from within the Conservative party needs ost).
I think 40/1 is indeed a good tip.
He is surely amongst the 5 people who could feasibly take over the role at a moments notice:
Hammond Davis Boris Gove Lord Hague (at a real push as caretaker)
I'd add Amber Rudd to that list. She's probably the closest thing that the Conservatives currently have to a unity candidate.
That said, I haven't a clue what she stands for - which means you're likely entirely correct about her being a unity candidate.
Hague is an intriguing suggestion. He's the job.
He has no interest in the job understandably having been trounced at the 2001 general election when he last did it
At least Hague in 2001 did what TMay failed to do on June 8th end up with a net increase in number of CON MPs
I was an activist in both campaigns, 2001 was abysmal we were crushed getting just 31% of the vote and little more than 160 seats in 2015 May got 42% (more than any other Tory leader I have campaigned for and 318 seats). In 2001 I campaigned in Braintree where Labour won by 350 by 2017 that was an 18000 Tory win.
Hague was the worst Tory leader since WW2, he is a brilliant orator like Foot but both were hopeless at crafting an electorally appealing message and winning votes and seats
The Braintree constituency is, as I said before, very different demographically from what it was in 2001 or 2005. the Tory majority was very similar in 2017 to that in 2015, and would, I suggest have been quite reasonable on current boundaries in 2010 or even 2005.
F1: bearing in mind those penalties, Force India are 7 for a double top 6 finish on the Ladbrokes Exchange. There's also 11 (also LadEx) for all Mercedes-powered cars to get points. The weak link there is clearly Williams, but you could hedge the bet by specifically betting on Stroll/Massa to not score.
Not tips, just some musing. Williams have been pretty poor lately.
Based on a tiny sample, it looks like the safe, grey, middle candidate -- supported as much for who they are not, rather than who they are -- is favoured to take over in government as prime minister, so John Major (not Hestletine) or Theresa May (not Boris or Gove). I'd imagine that favours Philip Hammond and Amber Rudd if Theresa May resigns, and even more so if May is forced to stand down.
Boris's main hope is that if Labour has a huge poll lead, he might be seen as a vote-winner and MPs hold their noses to save their seats. Otherwise, Boris is disliked by many MPs and what is worse, distrusted, and much of his "joke" support has leached away to Jacob Rees-Mogg. Gove and Davis probably have too many enemies and no compensatory qualities like Boris.
If the contest is towards the end of the Brexit negotiations, that will probably favour Hammond rather than Davis if, as I expect, the final package looks a lot like Hammond's and the Treasury's position.
Only if MPs decide now members decide and that boosts Boris plus Hammond and Rudd both poll worse than May v Corbyn while Boris does fractionally better than May and of course Churchill like Boris was not grey when WW2 broke out and he became leader and Brexit is another big issue and Leavers will want a true Brexiteer to ensure 'Brexit means Brexit'
The members will not get a vote if the takeover is in government and especially if the PM is forced out. I could be wrong but that is what will govern my betting. It may be that not even MPs are consulted if the Cabinet agrees on a successor -- think Howard. Incidentally, the men in grey suits will need to check their choice with the DUP or the government will fall: another reason for not letting it go to a vote.
If Brexit is smooth and Theresa May leads the party into a 2022 election, then everything will be different and the members will make the final choice, but for betting purposes, it is too remote to have any more than a blanket probability.
Hammond to beat Rudd, or Boris if Labour has a big lead.
I can't see the current Cabinet agreeing on a successor.
According to the Guardian "British pensioners who have retired to other EU countries will continue to have their healthcare paid for by the NHS post-Brexit, after a deal in principle was agreed by negotiators in Brussels.”
Also 'Other areas of agreement included protection for “frontier workers”, those who live in one EU member state and work in another. This would include people who live in the UK and commute to Europe, or Britons settled in one country, for example Germany, who commute to work in another, say Luxembourg.
Also, professional qualifications would be recognised across the bloc after Brexit, allowing lawyers, doctors, accountants, seafarers, train drivers and others who have moved to or from the UK to another EU country to work under their existing credentials.’
That is good news. The healthcare thing may be an issue, though, as much of the care is not necessarily related directly to healthcare. There are translators, home visits and other elements of social care that pensioners currently get in the same way that locals do in Spain and elsewhere. Will that continue? Hopefully, we will end up with the situation as it is now - and it will be extended to all, not just those currently domiciled.
Professional qualification recognition would certainly give EU citizens preferential treatment in the UK over other immigrants.
Something not accurate there or something missing. An independent didn't stand? A typo?
22% gone awol
The seat was a Labour gain from North Somerset First ( who did not stand this time). The Independent this time was a former Lib Dem councillor for the ward so the Lib Dem vote was split.
This is a market for mainly laying, not backing (in conjunction with the next Conservative leader market).
Jeremy Corbyn is a lay for me. He might be the next but one but he's unlikely to be next.
If you do want someone to back, Michael Gove at 40/1 looks worth considering. He's got the experience and stature, and his Conservative rivals' missteps may improve his chances by default. Since he's holidayed with the editor of the Evening Standard, he might well have newspaper backing at the right moment.
He looks like a gimp, is a massive drama queen and enjoys plotting and leaking far too much.
But, he is easily the cleverest and most able of everyone in the cabinet. Just look at how he makes a big impact in weeks wherever he goes. Education, Justice, Environment..
He's a 40/1 shot. Considering that any replacement for Theresa May as Prime Minister from within the Conservative party needs to have unquestionable experience and a public profile, that is surely too long a price. He's on a very short list of conceivables.
I think he'd be a dismal choice but none of the options for the Conservatives look exactly compelling (and if any of them did, they'd already be in the post).
I think 40/1 is indeed a good tip.
He is surely amongst the 5 people who could feasibly take over the role at a moments notice:
Hammond Davis Boris Gove Lord Hague (at a real push as caretaker)
I'd add Amber Rudd to that list. She's probably the closest thing that the Conservatives currently have to a unity candidate.
I typed Rudd but then demurred - I don't think she has quite the stature necessary.
That said, I haven't a clue what she stands for - which means you're likely entirely correct about her being a unity candidate.
Hague is an intriguing suggestion. He's been reasonably sane on the referendum while still trying to argue the UK's case in negotiations. I've been promoting (tongue in cheek) Ken Clarke as the caretaker leader but perhaps Hague could really do the job.
He has no interest in the job understandably having been trounced at the 2001 general election when he last did it
At least Hague in 2001 did what TMay failed to do on June 8th end up with a net increase in number of CON MPs
Something not accurate there or something missing. An independent didn't stand? A typo?
22% gone awol
The seat was a Labour gain from North Somerset First ( who did not stand this time). The Independent this time was a former Lib Dem councillor for the ward so the Lib Dem vote was split.
There is a confusion between multilateral and bilateral arrangements, not entirely of Andrew Neil's making. But yes, most trade bodies charge fees even if they tend to be smaller than the EU ones, including EFTA, ASEAN etc.
Based on a tiny sample, it looks like the safe, grey, middle candidate -- supported as much for who they are not, rather than who they are -- is favoured to take over in government as prime minister, so John Major (not Hestletine) or Theresa May (not Boris or Gove). I'd imagine that favours Philip Hammond and Amber Rudd if Theresa May resigns, and even more so if May is forced to stand down.
Boris's main hope is that if Labour has a huge poll lead, he might be seen as a vote-winner and MPs hold their noses to save their seats. Otherwise, Boris is disliked by many MPs and what is worse, distrusted, and much of his "joke" support has leached away to Jacob Rees-Mogg. Gove and Davis probably have too many enemies and no compensatory qualities like Boris.
If the contest is towards the end of the Brexit negotiations, that will probably favour Hammond rather than Davis if, as I expect, the final package looks a lot like Hammond's and the Treasury's position.
Only if MPs decide now members decide and that boosts Boris plus Hammond and Rudd both poll worse than May v Corbyn while Boris does fractionally better than May and of course Churchill like Boris was not grey when WW2 broke out and he became leader and Brexit is another big issue and Leavers will want a true Brexiteer to ensure 'Brexit means Brexit'
The members will not get a vote if the takeover is in government and especially if the PM is forced out. I could be wrong but that is what will govern my betting. It may be that not even MPs are consulted if the Cabinet agrees on a successor -- think Howard. Incidentally, the men in grey suits will need to check their choice with the DUP or the government will fall: another reason for not letting it go to a vote.
1. The Cabinet has no special role in selecting the Conservative Party leader and the rules won't be amended. Meaning even if the cabinet were to endorse a single candidate all it would take is a small group of MPs to nominate a challenger and it goes to a full membership vote. The only way to avoid a membership vote is if there is only a single nominated candidate, as happened when Howard was elected or when Leadsom withdrew in favour of May.
2. The DUP deal is a parliamentary deal that was signed by the whips not the party leaders. "The agreement reached will remain in place for the length of the parliament and can be reviewed by mutual consent of both parties." It's in place for the duration of this Parliament regardless of who is the leader and can only be reviewed with consent of both parties. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/26/the-conservativedup-deal-what-it-says-and-what-it-means
There is a confusion between multilateral and bilateral arrangements, not entirely of Andrew Neil's making. But yes, most trade bodies charge fees even if they tend to be smaller than the EU ones, including EFTA, ASEAN etc.
The UK also wants a lot more from its relationship with the EU than a regular FTA. It is looking for a lot more integration than that.
This is a market for mainly laying, not backing (in conjunction with the next Conservative leader market).
Jeremy Corbyn is a lay for me. He might be the next but one but he's unlikely to be next.
If you do want someone to back, Michael Gove at 40/1 looks worth considering. He's got the experience and stature, and his Conservative rivals' missteps may improve his chances by default. Since he's holidayed with the editor of the Evening Standard, he might well have newspaper backing at the right moment.
He looks like a gimp, is a massive drama queen and enjoys plotting and leaking far too much.
But, he is easily the cleverest and most able of everyone in the cabinet. Just look at how he makes a big impact in weeks wherever he goes. Education, Justice, Environment..
He's a 40/1 shot. Considering that any replacement for Theresa May as Prime Minister from within the Conservative party needs to have unquestionable experience and a public profile, that is surely too long a price. He's on a very short list of conceivables.
I think he'd be a dismal choice but none of the options for the Conservatives look exactly compelling (and if any of them did, they'd already be in the post).
I think 40/1 is indeed a good tip.
He is surely amongst the 5 people who could feasibly take over the role at a moments notice:
Hammond Davis Boris Gove Lord Hague (at a real push as caretaker)
I'd add Amber Rudd to that list. She's probably the closest thing that the Conservatives currently have to a unity candidate.
I typed Rudd but then demurred - I don't think she has quite the stature necessary.
That said, I haven't a clue what she stands for - which means you're likely entirely correct about her being a unity candidate.
Hague is an intriguing suggestion. He's been reasonably sane on the referendum while still trying to argue the UK's case in negotiations. I've been promoting (tongue in cheek) Ken Clarke as the caretaker leader but perhaps Hague could really do the job.
He has no interest in the job understandably having been trounced at the 2001 general election when he last did it
At least Hague in 2001 did what TMay failed to do on June 8th end up with a net increase in number of CON MPs
But didn't become an elected PM.
I understand there is a use for the net gains, but not in comparing 2001 to 2017.
I'm quite surprised by the panic that seems to be on display from Brexit supporting journalists today. Surely an impasse in negotiations was to be expected?
1. The Cabinet has no special role in selecting the Conservative Party leader and the rules won't be amended. Meaning even if the cabinet were to endorse a single candidate all it would take is a small group of MPs to nominate a challenger and it goes to a full membership vote. The only way to avoid a membership vote is if there is only a single nominated candidate, as happened when Howard was elected or when Leadsom withdrew in favour of May.
2. The DUP deal is a parliamentary deal that was signed by the whips not the party leaders. "The agreement reached will remain in place for the length of the parliament and can be reviewed by mutual consent of both parties." It's in place for the duration of this Parliament regardless of who is the leader and can only be reviewed with consent of both parties. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/26/the-conservativedup-deal-what-it-says-and-what-it-means
We are not saying much that is different. I wrote Cabinet to avoid repeating men in grey suits. In practice, were the PM to fall, there would be an agreed successor (or a very limited contest that would be stopped before a membership vote by the loser withdrawing, as Leadsom did) which in practice means the next PM would be chosen by the Cabinet with input from the whips, and the 1922 and party chairs.
The DUP deal may be solid on paper but a couple of visits to John Major's dentist and the confidence vote is lost. It is as secure as the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.
Whatever happens in theory, I'm betting something like the above happens in practice. Hammond to beat Rudd, or Boris if there is a big Labour lead.
[inner quotes removed for length: has the limit dropped?]
There is a confusion between multilateral and bilateral arrangements, not entirely of Andrew Neil's making. But yes, most trade bodies charge fees even if they tend to be smaller than the EU ones, including EFTA, ASEAN etc.
The UK also wants a lot more from its relationship with the EU than a regular FTA. It is looking for a lot more integration than that.
The assumption which some people are making here that party members will back Boris is wrong, I think. He has had a chance to show himself a serious figure as Foreign Sec, and all he has done is confirm the already considerable doubts people had about him.
Going down the list of Conservatives in Mike's list of odds:
David Davis: Yep, a possibility, especially if its an early contest. By far the most serious and impressive of the key Leave figures and if he can pull off a decent deal with the EU, his reputation will improve dramatically. Of course, the converse is true as well. He's getting on a bit, though.
Phillip Hammond: Yep, a strong possibility, appealing to the grown-up wing of the party, but not exactly one to set the pulses racing. But then, do we want our pulses raced?
JRM: You cannot be serious
Boris: Nope
Amber Rudd: She's talented and feisty, came over notably well in the GE2017 campaign, and has navigated the treacherous post-referendum waters well . However, her tiny majority is a problem.
Ruth Davidson: Nope, not a candidate in any plausible scenario
Damian Green: Articulate and likeable, a possible unity candidate with few enemies, coming through like John Major as the unifying Stop XXX candidate. Might be worth a punt.
Andrea Leadsom: Who?
Michael Gove: Intriguing, high-risk. Probably not, but 40/1 is not too bad
Sajid Javid: Hard to see what his appeal would be compare with others already mentioned
I'm quite surprised by the panic that seems to be on display from Brexit supporting journalists today. Surely an impasse in negotiations was to be expected?
Barnier is in deeper shit that Davis
European jobs once lost dont come back that quickly
I'm quite surprised by the panic that seems to be on display from Brexit supporting journalists today. Surely an impasse in negotiations was to be expected?
Barnier is in deeper shit that Davis
European jobs once lost dont come back that quickly
The assumption which some people are making here that party members will back Boris is wrong, I think. He has had a chance to show himself a serious figure as Foreign Sec, and all he has done is confirm the already considerable doubts people had about him.
Going down the list of Conservatives in Mike's list of odds:
David Davis: Yep, a possibility, especially if its an early contest. By far the most serious and impressive of the key Leave figures and if he can pull off a decent deal with the EU, his reputation will improve dramatically. Of course, the converse is true as well. He's getting on a bit, though.
Phillip Hammond: Yep, a strong possibility, appealing to the grown-up wing of the party, but not exactly one to set the pulses racing. But then, do we want our pulses raced?
JRM: You cannot be serious
Boris: Nope
Amber Rudd: She's talented and feisty, came over notably well in the GE2017 campaign, and has navigated the treacherous post-referendum waters well . However, her tiny majority is a problem.
Ruth Davidson: Nope, not a candidate in any plausible scenario
Damian Green: Articulate and likeable, a possible unity candidate with few enemies, coming through like John Major as the unifying Stop XXX candidate. Might be worth a punt.
Andrea Leadsom: Who?
Michael Gove: Intriguing, high-risk. Probably not, but 40/1 is not too bad
Sajid Javid: Hard to see what his appeal would be compare with others already mentioned
There is a confusion between multilateral and bilateral arrangements, not entirely of Andrew Neil's making. But yes, most trade bodies charge fees even if they tend to be smaller than the EU ones, including EFTA, ASEAN etc.
The UK also wants a lot more from its relationship with the EU than a regular FTA. It is looking for a lot more integration than that.
But Europe is asking us to commit to paying before they even talk about a possible post Brexit arrangement - which is both unreasonable, and contrary to the terms of Article 50.
I don't think David Davis has ever given out the impression that we're not willing to talk about paying 'fees' for post Brexit benefits. Barnier is coming across as a Euro-Johnson. And Johnson, however much of a bragging Bufflehead he might be, is not negotiating on our behalf.
Andrew Neil, while perhaps eliding some of the detail, is essentially right.
How amusing that Neil, ex-editor of the Sunday Times, BBC Sunday Politics presenter, member of the MCC, refers to the 'UK establishment' in the 3rd party
Damian Green: Articulate and likeable, a possible unity candidate with few enemies, coming through like John Major as the unifying Stop XXX candidate. Might be worth a punt.
I'm quite surprised by the panic that seems to be on display from Brexit supporting journalists today. Surely an impasse in negotiations was to be expected?
Barnier is in deeper shit that Davis
European jobs once lost dont come back that quickly
The percentage of our trade with Europe is how many times that of their trade with us ? You are whistling in the wind.
According to the Guardian "British pensioners who have retired to other EU countries will continue to have their healthcare paid for by the NHS post-Brexit, after a deal in principle was agreed by negotiators in Brussels.”
Also 'Other areas of agreement included protection for “frontier workers”, those who live in one EU member state and work in another. This would include people who live in the UK and commute to Europe, or Britons settled in one country, for example Germany, who commute to work in another, say Luxembourg.
Also, professional qualifications would be recognised across the bloc after Brexit, allowing lawyers, doctors, accountants, seafarers, train drivers and others who have moved to or from the UK to another EU country to work under their existing credentials.’
That is good news. The healthcare thing may be an issue, though, as much of the care is not necessarily related directly to healthcare. There are translators, home visits and other elements of social care that pensioners currently get in the same way that locals do in Spain and elsewhere. Will that continue? Hopefully, we will end up with the situation as it is now - and it will be extended to all, not just those currently domiciled.
Professional qualification recognition would certainly give EU citizens preferential treatment in the UK over other immigrants.
No-one generally gets translators in the Spanish system - they have to be paid for by the customer .. and rightly so.
Andrew Neil, while perhaps eliding some of the detail, is essentially right.
The key point he is right on is that this is not about the UK wanting special access to the EU market as some sort of one-sided request for a privilege, it's about the UK wanting a reciprocal deal whereby they get favourable access to the world's fifth or sixth largest economy. This needs to be reiterated again and again. Do they want this or not?
I'm quite surprised by the panic that seems to be on display from Brexit supporting journalists today. Surely an impasse in negotiations was to be expected?
Barnier is in deeper shit that Davis
European jobs once lost dont come back that quickly
The percentage of our trade with Europe is how many times that of their trade with us ? You are whistling in the wind.
not at all, Im quite happy to say that Barnier is playing hardball and isnt in a situation where there is no pain
his worst scenario is he ends up with nothing and looks like a tit
we go to WTO ,they do too and get nothing for their trouble. It hardly shows a Europe that is open for business - reputational risk sits on their side.
How amusing that Neil, ex-editor of the Sunday Times, BBC Sunday Politics presenter, member of the MCC, refers to the 'UK establishment' in the 3rd party
He's not wrong, mind.
And MCC membership does not make you establishment....
The key assumption of the markets appears to be that May will get away with her hubris because there is no obvious alternative who would be doing better.
However, given the rules of the Tory party do not require an alternative to come forward before she is defenestrated, that is irrelevant. While it means she is likely to stay as long as she is a useful human shield against the problems we face, it also means she will be quickly disposed of when that no longer applies, and they feel a gamble can be taken on somebody else, potentially someone either quite junior or a backbencher with ministerial experience who will not be tainted by her government. Given that Corbyn looks to be going nowhere and the putative successors, Macdonnell, Starmer and Thornberry are all even weaker candidates than him, they may feel they don't need a real heavyweight.
At the moment, therefore, I am wondering if Crabb might be value again. He's a former mid-ranking minister, he's clearly ambitious and he's well thought of. If he's spending time building up contacts on the backbenches rather than working on his troubled marriage he could be dangerous in a leadership contest, especially as neither Johnson nor Hammond seem likely to do well even if they stand but they have effective locks on the usual route to the top.
A Gove vs Crabb runoff might be interesting. Of course, if Osborne hadn't had multiple hissy fits...
Certainly next PM Corbyn is no bet for me. If May stays to the next election it will be 2022, and by then Corbyn will be 73. For all his energy and his physical fitness, I don't think he will stay that long.
Crabb nearly lost his seat last June with his majority a mere 300 compared with almost 5000 in 2015. He is not held in particular high regard by his constituents and will struggle to survive next time.
Corbyn is the only possible Labour option for next PM after May at the next general election so that is why he is favourite and of course let us not forget he got 60 fewer seats than the Tories at the last general election. Given the Tory successor to May is likely to be Davis or Boris, the former before Brexit talks have concluded and the latter after they are both goid value as they could become PM for a few months even if they lose the next general election
55 fewer seats actually after allowing for Bercow as Speaker.
Andrew Neil, while perhaps eliding some of the detail, is essentially right.
The key point he is right on is that this is not about the UK wanting special access to the EU market as some sort of one-sided request for a privilege, it's about the UK wanting a reciprocal deal whereby they get favourable access to the world's fifth or sixth largest economy. This needs to be reiterated again and again. Do they want this or not?
What if the other side is not so interested ? You are effectively saying that they should be interested because we are interested.
The assumption which some people are making here that party members will back Boris is wrong, I think. He has had a chance to show himself a serious figure as Foreign Sec, and all he has done is confirm the already considerable doubts people had about him.
Going down the list of Conservatives in Mike's list of odds:
David Davis: Yep, a possibility, especially if its an early contest. By far the most serious and impressive of the key Leave figures and if he can pull off a decent deal with the EU, his reputation will improve dramatically. Of course, the converse is true as well. He's getting on a bit, though.
Phillip Hammond: Yep, a strong possibility, appealing to the grown-up wing of the party, but not exactly one to set the pulses racing. But then, do we want our pulses raced?
JRM: You cannot be serious
Boris: Nope
Amber Rudd: She's talented and feisty, came over notably well in the GE2017 campaign, and has navigated the treacherous post-referendum waters well . However, her tiny majority is a problem.
Ruth Davidson: Nope, not a candidate in any plausible scenario
Damian Green: Articulate and likeable, a possible unity candidate with few enemies, coming through like John Major as the unifying Stop XXX candidate. Might be worth a punt.
Andrea Leadsom: Who?
Michael Gove: Intriguing, high-risk. Probably not, but 40/1 is not too bad
Sajid Javid: Hard to see what his appeal would be compare with others already mentioned
James Cleverly etc: Nope
Amongst longer shots: Consider Esther McVey
Not Rory?
It's a bit like your 50 best films. Always people miss out, disagree, etc.
Wot, no Kwasi, Nicks (Boles, Herbert), Raab, Eustice (super-marginal). Plus Neil O'Brien is a rising star.
I'm quite surprised by the panic that seems to be on display from Brexit supporting journalists today. Surely an impasse in negotiations was to be expected?
Barnier is in deeper shit that Davis
European jobs once lost dont come back that quickly
The percentage of our trade with Europe is how many times that of their trade with us ? You are whistling in the wind.
not at all, Im quite happy to say that Barnier is playing hardball and isnt in a situation where there is no pain
his worst scenario is he ends up with nothing and looks like a tit
we go to WTO ,they do too and get nothing for their trouble. It hardly shows a Europe that is open for business - reputational risk sits on their side.
Europe will be exactly in the same position as they are now vis-à-vis other countries. Only their relationship with the UK will be changing.
For us, it could be a change with every country. I am not sure we could set up the logistics to go WTO by March 2019.
What if the other side is not so interested ? You are effectively saying that they should be interested because we are interested.
Well, it's pretty obvious that they should, in their own interests, be keen on a trade deal with the world's fifth or sixth economy, which is on their doorstep and which is very happy to buy lots of stuff from them. If, however, they are not interested, then there's little to discuss and they don't get any dosh.
I'm quite surprised by the panic that seems to be on display from Brexit supporting journalists today. Surely an impasse in negotiations was to be expected?
Barnier is in deeper shit that Davis
European jobs once lost dont come back that quickly
The percentage of our trade with Europe is how many times that of their trade with us ? You are whistling in the wind.
not at all, Im quite happy to say that Barnier is playing hardball and isnt in a situation where there is no pain
his worst scenario is he ends up with nothing and looks like a tit
we go to WTO ,they do too and get nothing for their trouble. It hardly shows a Europe that is open for business - reputational risk sits on their side.
Europe will be exactly in the same position as they are now vis-à-vis other countries. Only their relationship with the UK will be changing.
For us, it could be a change with every country. I am not sure we could set up the logistics to go WTO by March 2019.
I guess youd better sell your business now and retire to Munich
Europe will be exactly in the same position as they are now vis-à-vis other countries. Only their relationship with the UK will be changing.
For us, it could be a change with every country. I am not sure we could set up the logistics to go WTO by March 2019.
There's still a sense of disbelief that there will be practical consequences and a hope that it'll be all right on the night. It's Brexit change denial.
Europe will be exactly in the same position as they are now vis-à-vis other countries. Only their relationship with the UK will be changing.
I don't think that's true. Existing EU trade deals and WTO terms were agreed on the basis that access to the UK market was part of the deal. In particular, WTO tariff-rate quotas will have to be apportioned between the EU27 and the UK.
Europe will be exactly in the same position as they are now vis-à-vis other countries. Only their relationship with the UK will be changing.
For us, it could be a change with every country. I am not sure we could set up the logistics to go WTO by March 2019.
There's still a sense of disbelief that there will be practical consequences and a hope that it'll be all right on the night. It's Brexit change denial.
The assumption which some people are making here that party members will back Boris is wrong, I think. He has had a chance to show himself a serious figure as Foreign Sec, and all he has done is confirm the already considerable doubts people had about him.
Going down the list of Conservatives in Mike's list of odds:
David Davis: Yep, a possibility, especially if its an early contest. By far the most serious and impressive of the key Leave figures and if he can pull off a decent deal with the EU, his reputation will improve dramatically. Of course, the converse is true as well. He's getting on a bit, though.
Phillip Hammond: Yep, a strong possibility, appealing to the grown-up wing of the party, but not exactly one to set the pulses racing. But then, do we want our pulses raced?
JRM: You cannot be serious
Boris: Nope
Amber Rudd: She's talented and feisty, came over notably well in the GE2017 campaign, and has navigated the treacherous post-referendum waters well . However, her tiny majority is a problem.
Ruth Davidson: Nope, not a candidate in any plausible scenario
Damian Green: Articulate and likeable, a possible unity candidate with few enemies, coming through like John Major as the unifying Stop XXX candidate. Might be worth a punt.
Andrea Leadsom: Who?
Michael Gove: Intriguing, high-risk. Probably not, but 40/1 is not too bad
Sajid Javid: Hard to see what his appeal would be compare with others already mentioned
James Cleverly etc: Nope
Amongst longer shots: Consider Esther McVey
Not Rory?
It's a bit like your 50 best films. Always people miss out, disagree, etc.
Wot, no Kwasi, Nicks (Boles, Herbert), Raab, Eustice (super-marginal). Plus Neil O'Brien is a rising star.
Once shared a cab with Neil - an interesting chap who is clearly very capable. Not sure I even see him in the cabinet for another term, let alone the leadership.
Europe will be exactly in the same position as they are now vis-à-vis other countries. Only their relationship with the UK will be changing.
I don't think that's true. Existing EU trade deals and WTO terms were agreed on the basis that access to the UK market was part of the deal. In particular, WTO tariff-rate quotas will have to be apportioned between the EU27 and the UK.
Good grief Nabavi, dont go throwing common sense around
Europe will be exactly in the same position as they are now vis-à-vis other countries. Only their relationship with the UK will be changing.
I don't think that's true. Existing EU trade deals and WTO terms were agreed on the basis that access to the UK market was part of the deal. In particular, WTO tariff-rate quotas will have to be apportioned between the EU27 and the UK.
Good grief Nabavi, dont go throwing common sense around
Someone has to, and I seem to have drawn the short straw.
Comments
Mr. B, .......
I will therefore refrain from comment about the qualifying and race prospects....
But we haven't had a PM in the Lords since 1963, and not one who stayed there since 1902. So realistically, he's out.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/31/years-eu-bent-backwards-please-britain-now-ask-flexibility/amp/
Mr. B, I agree on prioritising Singapore. Be daft not to.
And, on the commentator's curse, don't worry about it. Whilst displeased, I've never bought into that sort of thing, so comment away.
https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/903379872340463616
Seriously, I don't know why anyone would bother listening to Verhofstadt. He has about the same grasp of reality as Juncker without the excuse of a large intake of alcohol to explain his delusions.
Boris's main hope is that if Labour has a huge poll lead, he might be seen as a vote-winner and MPs hold their noses to save their seats. Otherwise, Boris is disliked by many MPs and what is worse, distrusted, and much of his "joke" support has leached away to Jacob Rees-Mogg. Gove and Davis probably have too many enemies and no compensatory qualities like Boris.
If the contest is towards the end of the Brexit negotiations, that will probably favour Hammond rather than Davis if, as I expect, the final package looks a lot like Hammond's and the Treasury's position.
The MPs, on the other hand, will be looking for a credible PM. And however you cut it, that ain't Boris.
Hague was the worst Tory leader since WW2, he is a brilliant orator like Foot but both were hopeless at crafting an electorally appealing message and winning votes and seats
I know, let's use the magic government money tree to build council houses, flog them off and use the money to build more council houses!
©Ruth Davidson
Boris vs Corbyn would be two cheeks of the same arse. Two vacillating and inept populists with a long track record of incompetence and failure going against each other to see who can make the most outlandish promises to the biggest rallies. The only party celebrating that would be the Yellows.
As for 'Tory members will demand a Leaver,' I disagree. I think they will demand quality ahead of what will be archaic principle.
If Brexit is smooth and Theresa May leads the party into a 2022 election, then everything will be different and the members will make the final choice, but for betting purposes, it is too remote to have any more than a blanket probability.
Hammond to beat Rudd, or Boris if Labour has a big lead.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/trump-s-respect-for-voters-confounds-the-left-p7k7x8nkd
[paywall sadly]
Not tips, just some musing. Williams have been pretty poor lately.
Professional qualification recognition would certainly give EU citizens preferential treatment in the UK over other immigrants.
LAB: 36.4% (+21.7)
CON: 32.4% (+3.7)
LDEM: 16.4% (+4.1)
IND: 8.2% (+8.2)
UKIP: 6.7% (-14.6)
Ohhhh Jeeerrrremyyy Cooorrrbyn
Something not accurate there or something missing. An independent didn't stand? A typo?
22% gone awol
2. The DUP deal is a parliamentary deal that was signed by the whips not the party leaders. "The agreement reached will remain in place for the length of the parliament and can be reviewed by mutual consent of both parties." It's in place for the duration of this Parliament regardless of who is the leader and can only be reviewed with consent of both parties. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/26/the-conservativedup-deal-what-it-says-and-what-it-means
I understand there is a use for the net gains, but not in comparing 2001 to 2017.
The DUP deal may be solid on paper but a couple of visits to John Major's dentist and the confidence vote is lost. It is as secure as the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.
Whatever happens in theory, I'm betting something like the above happens in practice. Hammond to beat Rudd, or Boris if there is a big Labour lead.
[inner quotes removed for length: has the limit dropped?]
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/903558656930742272
Going down the list of Conservatives in Mike's list of odds:
David Davis: Yep, a possibility, especially if its an early contest. By far the most serious and impressive of the key Leave figures and if he can pull off a decent deal with the EU, his reputation will improve dramatically. Of course, the converse is true as well. He's getting on a bit, though.
Phillip Hammond: Yep, a strong possibility, appealing to the grown-up wing of the party, but not exactly one to set the pulses racing. But then, do we want our pulses raced?
JRM: You cannot be serious
Boris: Nope
Amber Rudd: She's talented and feisty, came over notably well in the GE2017 campaign, and has navigated the treacherous post-referendum waters well . However, her tiny majority is a problem.
Ruth Davidson: Nope, not a candidate in any plausible scenario
Damian Green: Articulate and likeable, a possible unity candidate with few enemies, coming through like John Major as the unifying Stop XXX candidate. Might be worth a punt.
Andrea Leadsom: Who?
Michael Gove: Intriguing, high-risk. Probably not, but 40/1 is not too bad
Sajid Javid: Hard to see what his appeal would be compare with others already mentioned
James Cleverly etc: Nope
Amongst longer shots: Consider Esther McVey
European jobs once lost dont come back that quickly
I don't think David Davis has ever given out the impression that we're not willing to talk about paying 'fees' for post Brexit benefits.
Barnier is coming across as a Euro-Johnson. And Johnson, however much of a bragging Bufflehead he might be, is not negotiating on our behalf.
Andrew Neil, while perhaps eliding some of the detail, is essentially right.
You are whistling in the wind.
his worst scenario is he ends up with nothing and looks like a tit
we go to WTO ,they do too and get nothing for their trouble. It hardly shows a Europe that is open for business - reputational risk sits on their side.
And MCC membership does not make you establishment....
Lay and you collect if TM is defenestered (highly likely) or Corbyn quits before the GE (perfectly possible.)
Now back to the decorating.
Wot, no Kwasi, Nicks (Boles, Herbert), Raab, Eustice (super-marginal). Plus Neil O'Brien is a rising star.
For us, it could be a change with every country. I am not sure we could set up the logistics to go WTO by March 2019.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkrdEmtii78
no deal affects both