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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn now takes over the favourite slot in the next PM betting
Oddschecker
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Brave.....
And since the last GE, its long been my strongly held view that the SNP would definitely abstain or vote against a contrived confidence motion to force another GE anytime soon. And so I always thought that the Government held a much stronger hand as a minority Government, with or without that drawn out deal with the DUP. If anything, it annoys me that the SNP chose to snip from the sidelines rather than seek that kind of extra investment deal for Scotland when there was no chance in hell that they were going to help instigate another snap GE. But as always with the SNP, their natural instinct was to push grudge and grievance politics instead of putting the interests of Scotland first.
Jeremy Corbyn is a lay for me. He might be the next but one but he's unlikely to be next.
If you do want someone to back, Michael Gove at 40/1 looks worth considering. He's got the experience and stature, and his Conservative rivals' missteps may improve his chances by default. Since he's holidayed with the editor of the Evening Standard, he might well have newspaper backing at the right moment.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2017/08/31/20002-20170831ARTFIG00377-sondage-les-francais-favorables-a-une-courte-majorite-a-la-reforme-du-code-du-travail.php
CGT call for day of action on 12 september
VW diesel scappage - £6k in UK , £9k in Germany
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41114738
some animals are more equal than others
What these schemes all have in common is that they are all wretched value for money compared to scrapping my car privately and buying something 2-3 years old.
So I don't think I'll be taking this up.
That's a depressing headline to see.
F1: first practice should kick off in about 80 minutes.
After all the disparaging of the standard of cricket in the 2nd division by the London based media, I have to admit I am highly amused by Essex, who have been also-rans for years, won the 2nd division by a fairly narrow margin, and lost their most prolific bowler in the close season, absolutely walloping every side in Division 1. Even allowing for the inspired signing of Simon Harmer, it's been brilliant to watch.
Sturgeon meanwhile, is busy trying to reinvent the party as a responsible government, not a great deal of confidence in its own recent history from even their own supporters. (Know I shouldn't comment, but Sturgeon is normally very good at dress and make-up, saw her interview on BBC Scotland news last night and she had so much dark round her eyes, I immediately thought she was practicing for Halloween)
As a regular at Chelmsford I think the availablity of Cook, plus the signing of Neil Wagner were significant contributory factors, and to a lesser extent Mohammed Amir.
Until now we’ve been lucky with injuries, too.
But, he is easily the cleverest and most able of everyone in the cabinet. Just look at how he makes a big impact in weeks wherever he goes. Education, Justice, Environment..
However, given the rules of the Tory party do not require an alternative to come forward before she is defenestrated, that is irrelevant. While it means she is likely to stay as long as she is a useful human shield against the problems we face, it also means she will be quickly disposed of when that no longer applies, and they feel a gamble can be taken on somebody else, potentially someone either quite junior or a backbencher with ministerial experience who will not be tainted by her government. Given that Corbyn looks to be going nowhere and the putative successors, Macdonnell, Starmer and Thornberry are all even weaker candidates than him, they may feel they don't need a real heavyweight.
At the moment, therefore, I am wondering if Crabb might be value again. He's a former mid-ranking minister, he's clearly ambitious and he's well thought of. If he's spending time building up contacts on the backbenches rather than working on his troubled marriage he could be dangerous in a leadership contest, especially as neither Johnson nor Hammond seem likely to do well even if they stand but they have effective locks on the usual route to the top.
A Gove vs Crabb runoff might be interesting. Of course, if Osborne hadn't had multiple hissy fits...
Certainly next PM Corbyn is no bet for me. If May stays to the next election it will be 2022, and by then Corbyn will be 73. For all his energy and his physical fitness, I don't think he will stay that long.
When he's right (as at Justice) that arrogance can actually be a positive force - when not, as at Education, utterly divisive.
Trying to do all of them at once on tight budgets in short timeframes without proper quality control at a time of massively rising pupil numbers was fucking insane.
From an economic point of view it is always better value to buy a nearly new car.
The only exception to this is if you want to buy a Dacia.
Not sure he really has the stature and temprement to become PM. He is more of a thinker.
There were also some imbecilities - shutting down the national strategies website (an excellent and developing resource for lesson planning, which saved an enormous amount of time and duplicated effort, particularly for primary school teachers) was simply stupid.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/may-is-not-mad-to-think-she-can-carry-on-sblr5tdvd
Is an Astra estate - at £17k - really worth over TWICE the price? Whats the actual difference?
I can understand paying more for a Volvo or Mazda, but most of the european mass market cars being turned out are terrible value for money.
At the end of the day, that's all that matters for you, isn't it ?
I think the Tories best area (Facing Labour) was the East Midlands, I wonder if Labour may well miss Carwyn in Wales now.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/01/theresa-may-needs-look-like-plausible-leader-stay-means-cabinet/
More pertinently, why would she remain PM and deny a successor the greatest boost of all - being the actual PM for a few months so people don't have to imagine them in the role?
He has hinted at retiring at 70, or at least considering it. I wouldn't put it past him to be someone who walks away even when there is a good chance of being PM.
Thornberry on these numbers has an implied chance of being PM of 1.5% (if I have done my early morning maths correctly).
Really? 1.5%. She is favoured by Red Len and is 2nd in Shad Cabinet (as she is First Sec of State or whatever it is called).
Yes, he was London Mayor but I'd question what he actually achieved. He suited the mood of London and at a time of great uncertainty and anxiety (2008), he was the embodiment of hope and confidence.
The one thing he did was centralise far more power into the Mayor's office than Ken Livingstone so Boris effectively ran the Police and Transport for London where he met his match in the late Bob Crow. I've seen him at GLA Question Time and time and again he displayed a lack of interest or knowledge of the detail of his brief and retreated into bluster at such opportunities. He either thinks or believes a self-deprecating joke or a turn of phrase will successfully cover his ignorance - it may do as Mayor it wouldn't as Prime Minister.
He would be the antithesis of May just as Major was in his way the antithesis of Thatcher and Brown that of Blair. Whether that's what you need as distinct from what you like is another question.
As regards the financing deals, these offer a 'discount' on the (inflated) new price, but then they tend to make it up through higher interest rates than you would get from a cash loan from the bank. Also you are tied up to the deal as you don't really own the car, so you have to think about dilapidations, excess mileage, etc etc.
They seem to work for a lot of people who are just happy to sign up and pay the monthly payment, but as far as I can tell you could buy a nearly new car, get a 3% loan from the bank, pay less than the monthly payment you would be paying on a new car, and own the car yourself and its resale value.
The only exception to this is the Dacia model, which turns the whole industry on its head.
Note that the Witham consituency also has a large Tory voting rural-ish area. Hence Priti Patel’s vote.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-41120828
My point was not that he should be leader - I certainly don't want him as PM, and I wouldn't vote for him in a general election. My point is that Labour can hardly criticise him or claim he won't be successful politically given their current leader is a sort of less impressive version of the same thing.
Still I have taken a nibble at 66 on Ladbrokes.
The interesting thing to me is why Renault are the only car manufacturer so far to have made this proposition work. There is serious design, industrialisation and marketing behind it.
If we're talking about "character" and "suitability", it becomes a lot more subjective. I suspect the world won't end if either or indeed both Corbyn and Johnson become Prime Minister and I suspect the nature of the job will temper them in ways they won't appreciate.
I think you can say (and many on here do) that Corbyn has been consistent in his views on a range of issues. You couldn't say the same about Boris - I've seen newly-landed fish on a riverbank which haven't flipped and flopped as much as Boris. It depends if that consistency is something you consider important in a Prime Minister.
Spare me all the usual guff about how he got re-elected and how many votes he got. I'm a Londoner - apart from the bikes, there's very little evidence Boris was ever Mayor at all.
He was all gimmicks - he milked the Olympics for which most of the work had been done in the Livingstone era and played for the cameras but in so many other areas, he did nothing.
Did he fight Theresa May over the closure of local Police stations in places like East Ham and Epping ? I don't recall.
Corbyn is a man with a self-declared 'not a total pacifist, but with a low threshold for violence,' who shares a platform with terrorists.
He is an anti-fascist who makes common cause with Holocaust Deniers.
He is the man who campaigns against welfare cuts to be elected leader, yet promises to keep them in his election manifesto.
He is the serial rebel who sacks people for disloyalty.
He promises to 'deal with' student debts - then admits he wouldn't.
He is the Brexiteer turned Remainer who wants to leave the Single Market because of democracy, until he doesn't.
While very often his changes can be justified because of other events - Trident, where his party overruled him, for example - I think it's rather stretching it to say he's been 'consistent.' He has always, so far as I can judge, done what his target audience wanted him to do. That means he flip-flops or goes with the Scott Fitzgerald artistry, while claiming he isn't doing it because above all they like principled politicians.
If he reminds me of any fictional figure it's Roy Bland - as a good socialist he's following the money, and as a good capitalist he's sticking with the revolution.
You see my points?
It's well known how much I loathe Corbyn. Boris at least has a sense of humour. However, all my reasons for hating Corbyn apply equally to him, apart from the one about stupidity - whatever else he is, Boris Johnson is certainly not stupid.
That said, knowing that Corbyn is far more successful electorally than numerous deserving candidates, I do genuinely worry that Boris might win an election and be PM. The only thing that stands in the way is his lack of support in the PCP, which may stop him getting to the last two (and that's the real reason he was forced out last time, whatever he says in public).
I think he'd be a dismal choice but none of the options for the Conservatives look exactly compelling (and if any of them did, they'd already be in the post).
But that also depends on who else is standing. If the Remainers coalesced around one candidate, oddly that would improve his chances.
@ydoethur Scott Fitzgerald artistry?
F Scott Fitzgerald.
Roy Bland uses it to explain his contradictions, which is why I was thinking of it.
Also 'Other areas of agreement included protection for “frontier workers”, those who live in one EU member state and work in another. This would include people who live in the UK and commute to Europe, or Britons settled in one country, for example Germany, who commute to work in another, say Luxembourg.
Also, professional qualifications would be recognised across the bloc after Brexit, allowing lawyers, doctors, accountants, seafarers, train drivers and others who have moved to or from the UK to another EU country to work under their existing credentials.’
Which is good news for the NHS!
See https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/31/brexit-healthcare-deal-is-good-news-for-pensioners
He is surely amongst the 5 people who could feasibly take over the role at a moments notice:
Hammond
Davis
Boris
Gove
Lord Hague (at a real push as caretaker)
What it takes is for the government to collapse before a leadership contest. That is quite possible and in such adverse circumstances Labour would be favourites, hence Jezza. Collapses happen suddenly and rarely give time for an orderly transition. Alternatively May may merely survive.
Odd that, what with them being so keen on the EU.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14934241.SNP_spent_less_on_EU_vote_than_it_did_fighting_a_by_election_in_Glenrothes/
And there may be drizzle, which would seal it.
Ferrari have (surprisingly ?) don't seem to have brought the expected new engine to Monza, so his race tip looks pretty decent as well.
That said, I haven't a clue what she stands for - which means you're likely entirely correct about her being a unity candidate.
(Alonso - and Honda - are thinking of Singapore.)