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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After another stormy period punters make it a 56% chance that
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After another stormy period punters make it a 56% chance that Trump won’t survive a full first term
Returning once again to what continues to be the biggest political betting market in the UK at the moment – is Trump going to complete a full first term?
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Arpaio is probably a lot nastier than you think he is, because it is difficult to compress the scale of it into a couple of paragraphs.
I’d say he’s 80/20 to complete the term, so remaining is value. There’s also other bets around on departure date that have “2020 or later” as an option, which will pay out more than a year earlier.
Perhaps the discussion point of the day, at least according to LBC, was or were May's comments on executive pay. It's interesting to see a Conservative Party Prime Minister being as strongly criticised as May was by that arch-Lefty Sam Bowman from that group of Trots known as the Adam Smith Institute.
Bowman's not unreasonable point was that private companies could pay their CEOs what ever they liked and that was an integral part of capitalism. He was less able to defend the pay rise of the head of British Gas especially with 16% price rises in the pipeline (so to speak) and spluttered something about the wholesale price of gas.
May's remarks seem to channel her inner Ed Miliband as it's exactly the kind of well-meaning but impractical proposal he would put forward. Naming and shaming and registers shout nothing more than impotence and there's a wider question about our economic culture.
"Who will speak for the capitalists ?" I mused. Not, I seems, Theresa May's Conservatives.
Personally I think that the market has this wrong, and he's much more likely to survive until the end of the current term than the odds imply. However, it's rather a long time to tie up your money for a shortish-odds bet.
https://twitter.com/phoenixnewtimes/status/901263384087334914
Queensferry Crossing comes in £245 million under budget. That’s more than 18%!
https://thoughtcontrolscotland.com/2017/08/27/queensferry-crossing-comes-in-245-million-under-budget/
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28074021/market?marketId=1.129097136
There’s certainly a huge space in the centre ground of US politics, with the Republicans becoming dominated at the grass roots by the crazies and the Democrats appearing to be doubling down on identity politics and not understanding why they lost to Trump in the first place.
Bowman's argument was that successful CEOs were of huge value to companies and he cited the example of the departure of the CEO of Burberry where the announcement caused the share price to fall sharply. His argument was the value the CEO brought to the company in terms of the share price far outweighed the actual pecuniary value of any salary.
It was an interesting argument and equated successful CEOs to Premier League footballers where the very best could command astronomical fees based on the fact they could win trophies which would enhance the value of the club.
Shouldn't capitalism be about encouraging and rewarding success ? It certainly used to be. The mood is not strong for capitalism at the moment - whether it's the "magic money tree" or Government intervention on executive pay, there's a sense capitalism and the economic culture isn't working for many if not most people.
This says it all, I think, about Trump, his`power base' and Arpaio :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkghtyxZ6rc
However with austerity, falling wages etc resentment has grown. What needs to be emphasised is that it is capitalism which ultimately pays wages and provides funds for public services and public sector workers and Boris may be best able to combine a strong defence of capitalism with a gradual easing of austerity
The Democrats simply need to ensure the GOP is seen to be tied to Trump. It will be very hard for the GOP to disassociate themselves from Trump even if they obstruct some of his ideas in the House and Congress. The chaos works to the Democrats' advantage though with Kelly now as Chief of Staff that advantage will end.
The other aspect is to challenge Trump in 2019-20 on his pledges and promises from 2016. What has he achieved - where is the Wall, where are the jobs, has he brought security and prosperity ? Challenge him on his record and he will have nowhere to hide.
The Labour policy change on leaving the EU can be seen in a similar vein - the 2021-22 campaign will all be about challenging the Conservatives on the post-referendum and A50 pledges and plans.
Genuinely think you can use the word "evil" to describe him without being hyperbolic.
There is the counter argument that (1) many people are confusing the value of their roles with the value of themselves and (2) as @Ishmael_Z has eloquently pointed out above, with the massive crossover holdings of different companies, this is now effectively a cartel. Indeed it's worse than that because shareholder votes on pay are as I understand it not binding, so if you wish to veto a pay offer the only way to do it is to pass a motion dismissing the officer in question or even the whole board.
The example of CEO departure causing share price to plummet is interesting. However, was it because the CEO was good, or because change = uncertainty and markets hate uncertainty? Or some mixture of both? Did Fred Goodwin or Andy Hornby earn the vast packages they were granted? No. They bankrupted their companies, and went very close to bankrupting the whole country and indeed the whole planet. Clearly while they were paid vast sums for their roles, the money paid was out of all proportion to their actual performance.
As for the second the obvious way to deal with it is to make shareholder votes binding and say one shareholder, one vote. That would I see a rapid change I think.
If Adam Smith wanted to deflect attention from corporate pay, they might point out similar problems exist in the public sector. To take only one particularly dreadful example, is Mr Mark James, CEO of that mighty seat of government Carmarthenshire County Council, where his tenure has been pockmarked by two police investigations, a ruling by the Auditor General for Wales that his pension arrangements and an indemnity to fight a libel action were unlawful, and a vicious campaign against a local blogger who had the temerity to film him addressing the council, really worth £185,365 per annum not including pension?
The next general election is also likely to be in 2020 now
While he is really loathsome towards other human beings, what got me was the sheer pointlessness of that one. It suggests that that he's not doing all these things because he believes it will help, or that it will make him popular - it seems it really is because he and his men are cruel bastards who enjoy inflicting needless suffering because they can.
Now to Britain and you now seem to think the next GE will be 2020. The timetable is we leave the EU, May is let go with much grateful thinks and the new leader, with the help of some tax cuts here and there, goes to the country on the "Global Britain" platform in 2020. It's cynical and if I can see it so can anyone and everyone else.
It's about the only hope the Conservatives have and all they can go on is the A50 Treaty as the domestic record will look uninspiring after a decade in office. Today's performance by May suggests the current Conservative line is still Miliband-lite.
The issue of senior public sector pay is more relevant and you can look at the remuneration package of the CEX of Surrey County Council if you want another example. John O is a member of that Council - would he stand up and tell the rest of the Conservative Group how much David McNulty's successor should be paid ? How would David Hodge react if Theresa May ordered him to reduce the salary package ? What right has Government to interfere in such matters in the public sector ?
Ditto with the quangocrats and council leaders, who screw up, get fired, paid off (12 months’ notice) then reappear somewhere else in short order to screw up again.
Why is it cynical? Once we have completed Brexit voters can either vote for that or for whatever Corbyn's position of the day on Brexit is in 2020. Given the financial situation Brown left the country in in 2010 compared to today whatever the result of the next general election there is much the Tories can take credit for
https://twitter.com/ClatchardCraig/status/901751398257360897
I have no objection to fair remuneration based on merit in public or private sector. I insist on it myself! What bothers me is that a great many crooks, chancers and failures are being paid vast sums that they are not earning and that they effectively award themselves via huge pay rises there is no effectual way of blocking while others suffer the consequences of their failures. That is wrong, and it needs changing.
And I could have mentioned university Vice Chancellors - is the Vice Chancellor of the University of Bolton worth £220,000 a year and other benefits totalling £1 million? Clearly not. But that's what he's taking.
As for here, I hope you'll allocate a small part of that credit to the Coalition as well. Oborne in the Mail on Saturday was ringing alarm bells on banking and no one can be anything other than worried about levels of consumer and personal debt. For all the brave talk about bringing the public finances under control, the odd small surplus swallow doesn't make a summer and big challenges such as the finding of adult social care aren't going to go away.
I can only hope the CoE reminds the PM and the Party Chairman of the folly of unaffordable tax cuts as election bribes.
And thanks for letting me know about the show; it might be interesting.
The Coalition of course can claim some credit too, May did try and tackle adult social care but in a politically inept way, only a cross-party commission can only ever get a longer term plan implemented on that.
Tax cuts which grow the economy and increase tax revenues are not unaffordable, it depends on their impact
That was the level that caused newspapers to write "Carter is fucked" articles back in the 70s
I agree on the cross-party commission to tackle adult social care but there are many other non-political experts who need to be involved. I do think it needs to be taken out of the party political battleground and perhaps needs to look at a wider remit of how the elderly are to be valued and treated in our society.
We'll agree to disagree on tax cuts.
Loads of Blair and Ali Campbell.... Feel like getting out the champagne and party poppers and partying like it's 1997
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwWfE4DAyao
The ex-leader of a party whose sock puppets have at various times described the new bridge as a vanity project & waste of money wouldn't be my first choice though.
I think that's a valid argument.
* Correction I misread the Wikipedia article. The bid was £830 million. It was a bit over budget.
The only possible future president I can see amongst the current crop of Democrats is Congressman Joseph P Kennedy, Bobby Kennedy's grandson but he needs to get elected Senator or Governor first, 2020 is too early for him.
I agree on the wider remit of elderly care, personally I favour using National Insurance to pay for it and giving tax breaks to children who help their elderly parents but the whole issue needs looking at
https://wingsoverscotland.com/storming-the-nation/
Evening Malc?
It is quite correct to say that success should be financially rewarded. But it should not be up to the officers of a company to make that judgement, but the owners. At the moment it is not. That is not capitalism, it is cronyism.
I am off to bed, but I hope that gives you something to ponder.
Good night everyone.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/27/exclusive-eu-could-open-brexit-climbdown-trade-talks-amid-revolt/
Tells you what a piece of shit Trump is
Its a veey sensible approach. Much better for the economy than the Tories approach
This position puts Paris at odds with hardliners in Brussels and Michel Barnier...
So the soft line is three years with everything as it is today?
So much for Meeks and his 'German car manufacturers' bullshit the other day. Reality is hitting the EU27 like anyone with a brain knew it would.