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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the end the GOP, not the Democrats, will determine Trump’s future
The American left seems unable to come to terms with Trump and doesn’t know how to deal with him. It’s his own side he should be worried about says Keiran Pedley
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Dems must gain N.J governorship as Christie is more unpopular than Trump.
I am not sure I would prefer Pence to Trump. Kasich, yes, but he lost to Trump last time and it would be unusual for a defeated primary candidate to unseat the incumbent president - and as we saw with Romney, Clinton and Dole, it's still rarer for them to win (Reagan was a notable recent sort-of exception). Also he will be 67 and while age was not a factor for Trump, Clinton and Sanders he will find it hard to convincingly suggest he offers a break with the past.
A fresh face might do it though, and arguably the one to watch as she dances in the media spotlight is Nikki Haley. I have often tipped her as a future president and if she is seen to handle North Korea more deftly than Trump she will surely enter the frame.
The Democrats are still having a nervous breakdown. Last time was meant to be their moment. They would win the Presidency, the House and the Senate, the first time they would have had more than two terms since the Roosevelt/Truman hegemony of 1933-53. Instead they lost the lot to a reality TV star who comes across as a less stable version of Jeremy Clarkson. That was pretty humiliating. We went literally overnight from talking about the death of the Republicans to the death of the Democrats - almost as happened here with Corbyn. They are still shocked and do not know how to respond - 'if we lose like that then, how can we win, ever?' They're wrong - no party which wins the popular vote five elections in six is dead - but people who thought Hilary Clinton was a good candidate after eight years of Obama are clearly not possessed of intelligence or good judgement. They also have the problem that the nature of American democracy leaves them leaderless at present so there is nobody to tel them hard truths and turn things around.
I think 'e.g. Neo-Nazis' should be 'i.e. Neo-Nazis.'
And Mr P is right. Trump won’t be impeached, not this side of the next elections anyway. Who was it said ‘don’t get mad, get even’? And getting even means NOT reacting hysterically to everything; it means planning and preparing.
The Dems don’t seem to have learned the lesson that Bernie Sanders, and IMHO, Trump taught them. There’s an appetite for change, and it isn’t being satisfied.
What is true is that they probably won't get the Senate back, so Trump won't get impeached unless at least some Republicans vote to do it. This probably won't happen, but whether the Dems end up needing to flip one or half a dozen makes a material difference.
PS I guess it's easy to be nonchalant about two crazy people goading each other about nuclear weapons when you've got a continent between you and the warring parties but nobody outside Kim Kong Un's inner circle knows how much of a risk Trump is creating.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-40887900
When the visionary entrepreneur Jamshedji Tata was planning the iron and steel works he believed could be the backbone of Indian industrialisation way back in the late 19th Century, he touted the idea around the finance houses of London. None wanted to invest.
"As a desperate venture," the Times reported in 1921. "The iron and steel project was offered to the Indian public and to everyone's amazement the sum needed was subscribed in a few days."
Tata's evolution has come full circle over the past century.
As the owner of Jaguar Land Rover and Corus Steel, it is now the largest industrial employer in the UK...
It turned out not to be true.
I largely agree with this. Also worth noting Trump inherited a hospital pass on the North Korea situation.
There is a genuine and continuing division in the party between the more conservative and more radical wings, which was exemplified by the Clinton/Saunders nomination battle. Clinton didn't reunite the party behind her candidacy, and there isn't yet an obvious candidate who will provide that leadership this time around.
Kieran's case is perhaps a bit pessimistic, but it's notable that the Republicans national fundraising is currently way ahead of the Democrats.
1) Her party had held the presidency for 8 years
2) She's not very good at politics.
A normal, competent politician won't have a problem getting the party behind them after 3 to 4 years of Trump.
Syria could justifiably be called a hospital pass, NK not so much.
The US is not a failed state, of course; but it is drifting towards a situation in which there will be no common demos. Over 50% of Republicans now believe that Trump should have the right to postpone the 2020 election. Think about that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_Republican_primary,_2016
Odd that.
Right now, Trump's options are for a massive regional war, or peace at the cost of letting a lunatic leader of a despotic regime get nuclear weapons *and* letting every tyrant in the world know that even the US won't lift a finger if you get nukes, drastically increasing the future prospects of a nuclear war.
When you chuck in what's happening in places like Baltimore and Chicago and issues like health the US whilst far from a failed state seems to fail as a state to deal with very serious problems.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/tory-rees-mogg-toys-with-leadership-pdgt9qfvr
Even taking it at face value, 6,000 = 0.0018% of the population
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tees-40915617
I think you can draw a distinction between someone who tries to change policy (e.g. presumably the motive of this case in Charlotteville) vs. someone who is trying to overthrow the state or society itself.
In my mind the former is an (alleged) murderer, the second is a terrorist.
There ues nothing to talk about in any case. Everything that needed to be said on Nazism has already been said. Nazism is the Political equivalent of smallpox. Don't let them march. Don't accept them as one side of an argument.
But if they cross the boundary into inciting (or committing) criminal offenses then crack down on them.
I'm not sure that the counter-protesters are helpful though - if they didn't turn up then pretty much everyone would ignore the few idiots who march.
Whatever one thinks of Obama, he was on the side of blue collar white America (or at least appeared to be). Bernie also is. The rest of the Dems? Not even close. They seem more concerned with Transgender rights (something which affects maybe 20,000 Americans) than with ensuring that there are enough jobs being created in blue collar America. Whether that is true or not, it is the impression they give. The Dems have pandered to Generation Tumblr and now have no natural base given that blue collar whites are apparently all Nazis.
How do you work that out??
Trump is the baddy because he's crass and offensive
So far apart from shooting his mouth off he has actually done very little
Angela Merkels car industry has killed more people so far this year than Trump but that's ok because she isnt rude about it.
Terrorism is more than just committing murder in a spectacular and public way. For example I don't think people talk about Hungerford or Dunblane as acts of terrorism.
It's also worth noting that the UK government for decades referred to the PIRA as "murderers" rather than "terrorists" because they didn't want to legitimise their campaign. I think referring to the Charlotteville (alleged) murderer as a "terrorist" gives him a status he doesn't deserve.
like the Dutch and their eggs
try following whats actually happening instead of being duped by a reality TV star
What the Democrats do need is a fresh face that they can coalesce around... plenty of time for someone to emerge yet. In the meantime, they should not push for impeachment too hard - Pence as POTUS would be a bigger challenge for them to overcome in 2020.
The balance might literally reverse overnight.
he said hed build a wall between the US and mexico, not a stone has been turned
and it NK's case NK is in the driving seat Trumps simply reacting
so far the only thing he has actually done is bomb the Syrians for using chemical weapons
do you disagree with that ?
Saunders is even touted as the front runner :
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/7/5/15802616/bernie-sanders-2020
Of course, it's hard to blame the EU for the North Korea crisis... Surely Merkel must be behind it somehow?!
The IRA were obviously terrorists by any normal definition. The difference with Hungerford or Dunblane is whether the goal is *political*.
Now, for all I know you may be right that it's practically useful when trying to prevent terrorism not to call terrorists terrorists, or to call non-terrorists terrorists for that matter, but that doesn't change the actual meaning of the word.
If we erase the past that's unacceptable to modern sensibilities then we're not going to have many statues, or buildings, left.
I had noticed that he had made two major efforts to ban immigration from certain countries that were struck down by the courts, and tried to repeal Obamacare only to be blocked by John McCain's cunning manoeuvres in the Senate.
It's not altogether his fault he's achieved nothing.
Incidentally did anyone else spot a parallel between Corbyn's education policies and Trump's wall? Both were policies that were badly thought through and essentially reduced to slogans. However, the key point is that the huge costs would all be borne by other people - turning them into naked if implausible bribes.
And what about Arlington?
Edit - meant Washington and Lee. Too early in the morning.
Europe wont be touched by a NK\USA showdown, but youre happy for 1million plus europeans to die each decade
as I said you go for the pantomime baddy not the atcual killer
While it's right that the Dems do need to come up with something along the lines of a new economic and social compact for middle-America, there's no excusing actual Nazis or Klan members with tales of blue collar dislocation. It's racism pure and simple.
I doubt Hilary would have had any hesitation in sending North Korea back to the stone age if it had attacked US territory or in threatening to do so before hand.
Though that would have been cheered by many as an example of a 'strong woman leader'.
People will support or criticize the same action depending on whether it is done by 'our side' or 'their side'.
That fear then provokes changes of behaviour and potentially limits our freedom. It's irrational because you are more likely to die in a car accident or from air pollution but it's hard not to feel the effects.
Terrorists deliberately set out to destablise society by spreading terror.
One point: the current emboldening of neo-Nazis surely would not have happened if Donald Trump had not been elected. While I agree that not all or even most Trump supporters are sympathetic to them, far too many are. The Alt-Right movement has been supremely relaxed about being associated with such people. We are seeing the consequences.
It is reasonable to expect those who wish to be considered part of decent society to make a stand. It seems that the Alt-Righters are choosing to go the other way.
This may yet cross the Atlantic. UKIP may well elect a new leader who would make a crusade against Islam their USP. It could easily find a ready audience in post-Brexit Britain.
https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/896650543988326400
And there is nothing ironic about a company founded in 1937 Germany by the Deutsche Arbeitsfront trade union (check out the swastika on their flag) causing industrial scale loss of life by poison gas in the 2010s. No sirree.
Agree,Why the hell in the last year the removal of confederate statues,this was only going to cause more divide in a already divided America.
My point stands, though, and yours only strengthens it. If we remove every statue and building and name from the modern world which is connected to terrible deeds, what would be left?
It's ironic we get the "What did the Romans ever do for us?" line, when they also crucified large numbers of people, had an economy built on slavery, and partook in the odd spot of genocide.
Imposing modern norms on the past is a form of ignorant revisionism that's particularly repulsive.
It's definitely all Angela Merkel's fault though!
that's a bit closer to home
where's the outrage ?
I really don't know what the solution to NK is but I am glad I am not in SK at the moment. Incredibly one of my daughter's friends is going to SK for an Erasmus year shortly. I am really glad my daughter is going to Holland instead. All she has to watch out for there is the eggs (and the German cars, natch).
OTH, I do broadly agree with wider sentiment about the stupidity of trying to re-write history and removal of historic statues does seem perverse - better to provide comprehensive information about the subject's achievements, good and bad.
(On the other, other hand how many statues of Adolf Hitler still exist? And would anyone argue for their retention? That's my problem - too many hands!)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_particulate_filter#History
What does your unforced error say your attitude to history, science, and the truth, would you say?
I don't see how the current Dems can beat Trump, he's running rings around them at the moment.
If you go to Gori in Georgia, you will find a lot of statues of Joseph Stalin. For years, Croatia was not considered for EU membership because they refused to hand over war criminals who Croats considered heros.
It's very difficult to tell people what they should think of their own people. Was the statue of Robert E Lee causing any harm? Probably not.
Calling non-terrorists "terrorists" cheapens the word - reducing its impact when it is needed - and ironically helps the actual terrorists by spreading fear generally. It's the same way that the press refers to everything as a "tragedy" or a "catastrophe" when they are simply not - it limits our linguist options.
If not that statue, then something else would have sufficed