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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meet the ex-chief of staff to the BrexSec now the de facto Brexit opposition leader
Past time for sensible MPs in all parties to admit Brexit is a catastrophe, come together In new party if need be, and reverse it #euref19
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But if it did, it would presumably be likely to more votes off Labour and the LibDems (and maybe the SNP in Scotland) than the Conservatives and, in an FPTP system, therefore probably end up helping Brexit rather than harming it?
https://twitter.com/JulieOwenMoylan/status/895253468339949568
In reality, nothing is going to come of this, and in a week's time everybody will have forgotten about it. More important things will be happening, like a few local council by-elections on 17th August. They will overshadow the new party in focus and importance; we won't even need to have a nuclear war to make us forget about it.
HAHAHAHAHAHA
But, a man who calls for Boris Johnson to be jailed, challenges Isabel Oakeshott to testify against him in court, threatens to grind his opponents into the dust, calls Brexiters jihadis, wants Miriam Gonzalez Durantez as foreign secretary, and worries that the photo the Guardian used of him makes him look fat, all in less than 24 hours isn't going to be taken seriously in debate.
More seriously, maybe the guy ..... an insider .....has just had enough. And as OGH writes, August is traditionally politically quiet, and this one, as far as UK is concerned, especially so. As a consequence Mr C’s presumably informed voice is likely to be heard and his remarks thought about, although CR is right; good thoughts they may be but it’s easy to have too much of a good thing.
who's going to view him as reliable ?
Most people will be reading about Diana or Fat Boy Kim
Yesterdays Sun was all about Sarah harding
One of the commenters (JJ?) noted that many of the anti-establishment pundits and politicos now find themselves in the awkward position of supporting the government, which doesn't make for good copy/entertaining outrage.
Doesn't mean they are right now or that they were right then... but we may see some of the Brexit media/thinkers watering down support, or perhaps saying - well I wanted this sort of Brexit and now the govt has messed it up.
A better avenue might be a cross-party pledge for MPs which places conditions on Brexit...
But while Brexiteers are divided - so too are Remainers I think - there isn't an agreed strategy for how to oppose... is it another referendum that's needed? Or a transition period? etc.
https://twitter.com/jonnymorris1973/status/894845014383243264
Such is the personal nature of some of his tweets, it's clear he had some serious falling outs with leading Tory figures.
If he'd had a key policy role, was previously a Brexiter, or was a waverer, or even a neutral, who'd had a Damascene conversion whilst at DexEU, and now calmly but quietly killed with the facts, I'd agree it'd could be very damaging.
But, his twitter feed is just ranting and goading.
rich
Never mind Mr Chapman. Will North Korea be another August disaster?
Being prepared to lie without shame does not mean smarter...
As Mike said, the significance of Chapman's role in the opposition is the combination of his previous role in DexEU and his journalistic skills. His remark calling on MPs to label Brexit the catastrophe for the UK that it is were even reported in China.
A little balance - noting that to avoid giving the impression that he is a recanting Brexiteer due to his Davis role - would be fair to those who bet based on information provided on this blog
Cameron should never have got us into the situation where such things mattered. What we need is some way of getting out of the mess.
The leaks from Chapman are embarrassing but shouldn't really surprise us. We know there all kinds of issues that need to be dealt with to make Brexit go smoothly.
I think it's understandable that Cabinet seem to be coming round to the transition period plan - it must be scary to keep hearing of new problems.
He presented Animal Magic in the 70's and 80's.
On the one hand - it does seem as though Trump has taken a more provocative stance than the US normally does. On the other - China supported sanctions, which could be a good sign.
In terms of British political implications - Corbyn would probably oppose an invasion/military action against N. Korea, but I imagine most of his party would be fine with it given sufficient provocation.
May of course will support Trump - but I would imagine that being the more popular position amongst the public providing there was sufficient provocation.
"It requires the most cautious steering to refrain, on the one side from alarming popular prejudicies, and on the other from leaving the government in the same imbecile state in which we found it"
Plus ca change, plus c'est le meme chose
Remain lost
Mr. Pulpstar, although we disagree on the EU, I think it's worth remembering the majority of Remain voters do accept the result even if they would've preferred it go the other way.
What we're seeing/hearing from both sides is a vocal minority at the extreme edges get disproportionately more airtime. Votes should be settled on the issue itself. The idiotic conduct of some on either side (such as the baffling stupidity of Cameron forbidding departure planning or May not doing nearly enough, then triggering Article 50 and then, with the clock ticking, having an unnecessary election) does not alter the issue itself.
I agree, however, that a risk is being utterly ignored by those advocating a new party to stop our departure, or who want the Commons to just rescind Article 50. If people learn the lesson that their votes can be ignored by those they elect, that could not only heighten disengagement but lead to the formation of more extreme parties. The only way our position can be changed in a morally acceptable, as well as legally correct, way is to have either another referendum [that itself would be controversial] or a General Election.
The squawking of the likes of Single Source Oakeshott is funny but a sideshow. Leavers who fancy themselves as thoughtful should be urgently asking themselves why they are so utterly unpersuasive. The answers are obvious, but perhaps some Leavers are getting to a point where they can start to consider the unpalatable truths about their campaign and the catastrophic consequences that they have for the nature of the Brexit terms that will be secured.
Watching him twist on that hook wouldn't make up for the deaths of all my friends in Seoul, but it would be amusing.
Debate doesn't end because we had a vote - the same would have been true if Leave had won. At least with the way the referendum turned out we've all had a chance to see what Brexit means in practice. It will never again be able to be sold as a catch-all easy fix for everything under the sun.
Mind you, Brexiteers should be less worried about his attacks and more that there's a lot of truth to them. As even Chapman's old boss admits, Brexit is an infinitely more complex task than it's supporters portrayed it as, especially as you have to prepare the country for the consequences of a deal you're having to try and shape it. As we saw with Cummings' recent intervention even a few ardent leavers are worried that a government not exactly brimming with the brightest and best aren't up to the task.
Seems a groundless fear in my view. If Alistair Campbell could get away with everything he did, then Brexit isn't going to register.
In all this excitement I kinda forgot...go ahead punks make my day and read some of Matthew Goodwin'ts Tweets on this.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/895527417120477184
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/895340082005200897
https://twitter.com/YesBrexit/status/895351945921269763
Goodwin focusses far too much on UKIP, in every respect.
The stuff he said about customs being a shambles... well that might count.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/02/exclusive-spies-civil-servants-leak-secrets-face-14-years-jail/
Who are you? I've never heard you? The people of Europe have never heard of you?
It's one of the factors that makes me think that for Brexit the party ain't over yet ...
https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/895539989790023680
1 : 230 : 15 : 49 : 30
Year Days Hrs Mins Secs
Looking through Chapman's twitter feed it looks to me like the disconsolate ranring of people who have rarely if ever been denied anything in life and who now cannot come to terms with the fact that they lost a democratic vote in 2016.
A50 means there is a deadline so the government can't obfuscate, draw up plans, call for reviews, or set up inquiries. It has to act and it has to act to a strict timetable. Of course a transition period gives some can-kicking wiggle room but this will be perceived as a failure (and of course betrayal by doltish Brexiters).
You may have won the battle for Brexit, but the Brexit that gets implemented will not be the one the cultists want, as there is no majority for it. People did not vote for impoverishment.
What a joke.
Think he must be a bit loopy. I thought some of the Remainers on here were a bit "odd" but this guy he making a complete laughing stock of himself TBH.
The idea that some self important twat on twitter is going to make a difference seems remarkably persistent.
If you hate Brexit and believe it is going to be a catastrophe you vote Liberal surely?
' Europe’s latest food scandal has deepened as Belgium accused the Dutch authorities of failing to sound the alarm after discovering eggs were being contaminated with a harmful insecticide as early as November last year.
The Belgian agriculture minister, Denis Ducarme, told a parliamentary hearing that his officials had obtained an internal Dutch document that reported “the observation of the presence of fipronil in Dutch eggs at the end of November 2016”.
“When a country like the Netherlands, one of the world’s biggest exporters of eggs, does not pass on this kind of information, that is a real problem,” Ducarme said. The minister suggested the evidence had only come to him “by chance”, rather than through official channels.
The insecticide scandal became public on 1 August when it was revealed that tests had found that fipronil, a toxic anti-lice agent, banned from use in the production of products for human consumption, had found its way into the food chain. '
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/09/contaminated-eggs-netherlands-failed-to-sound-alarm-says-belgium
Can anyone honestly see Corbyn and Macdonnell making a better fist of it? One is thick as five posts and the other is an unabashed Maoist. As for Starmer, he's good at words but he proved graphically and beyond doubt as DPP that he's not only dogmatic but hopelessly disorganised.
Vince Cable is 74 and appears to be rapidly disappearing up himself (oh for Danny Alexander to have survived 2015). Moreover the mighty rump of 13 MPs he leads has only two - Norman Lamb and Jo Swinson - who might be considered truly talented.
A national government would have to include the SNP, whose only interest at Westminster is screwing things up and causing trouble to further the cause of independence (not that this strategy has been noticeably successful).
So while we can mutter and grumble, the reality is there is no better option than May, Hammond and even Davis waiting to take over.
That's not a cheering thought.
https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/894740968112611328
If the Cons are not able to claim economic competency, and an argument can be made that they can't any more, then what do they have? They become like the three me-too Cons-lite Lab leadership campaigners who lost out to a radical leftist. Cons will likewise become radical rightist.
What is preventing a new party is the innate sense of loyalty of many Cons people. But we are by no means at the end of history with our two party system.
If someone presented me with an economically rigorous, socially liberal, non-bonkers, EU-friendly party run by sensible people, I would certainly take a look. I think it would draw support across all current party supporters.
Agree about Danny Alexander but even more so Steven Webb.
The really sad irony is if we had taken the same approach to EU law the French and Dutch did - ignoring it when it didn't suit us - there would be hardly any euroscepticism and we'd still be members. But if the EU had behaved more sensibly over the years, rather than appointing drunken expenses junkies and imposing arbitrary export bans on us, that would be true anyway.
If you want to keep the NHS in something like its current form, and you don't want Marxist control, then you vote Lib Dem. Most people don't.
TBH, while I do still wish we weren't leaving the EU, we are where we are and must go. Whats shocked me more is the bien pensant (sic) response to a democratic vote....
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-4776918/Two-men-playing-blind-man-s-bluff-cliff-edge.html
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/britain-no-regrets-brexit-polling-8882527
Take my position: I voted remain, but after the referendum I felt a quick, hard Brexit was far preferable to a long and lingering negotiation. I remain of that view.
But if there was to be another referendum, I would probably vote remain more strongly than my rather weak vote last time. The leavers in power have proved to be utterly incompetent and unfit for the task, yet alone the rest of the government and body politic.
If you want to look at the 'nasty party' image then try Osborne's decision to freeze for five years the income level at which tuition fees become repayable while increasing the debt at RPI+3% per year.
That decision will likely cost the average graduate £6,000.
Holland is a bit like that. They mass produce cheap food. As with all mass produced cheap food it is better not to focus on the details.
Probably hasn't killed nearly as many people as German cars anyway.
Is this NK standoff genuinely dangerous? What's the probability of action. Lots of hype in press makes it hard to judge.