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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Whatever happened to the summer LAB leadership contest which looked all set to be an annual fixture?
One of the things about running a website about political betting is that we need events on which we can risk our money. Summer is generally a quiet time particularly in August but over the past couple of years we have had the spectacle of a Labour leadership contest both of which were won by Mr Corbyn. In August 2016, as well, we were less than three months away from the US presidential election.
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"Mr Medvedev also warned that new steps would follow aimed at removing President Trump - whom he described as a "non-systemic player" - from power."
(BBC)
Revenge, it is often said, is a dish best served cold, and the membership, who were mostly ignored by the MP's in favour of the rich and powerful backers and friends, except when there was a requirement to get the foot soldiers out on the streets, door knocking and canvassing, are now making it clear that whoever holds the short, curlies and other dangly bits, controls who gets back into the best club in London.
That it was May actually saving Corbyn by calling a totally unnecessary GE and kyboshing the "Return of the Chicken Coup Plotters" makes the dish, oh! so much tastier for the membership.
Asked whether his political philosophy was closer to President Maduro's or Tony Blair's, Mr Williamson declined to answer but said: "When a government is doing good things, as they certainly were under Hugo Chavez...that's surely a good thing that we should celebrate."
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-40810341
The PLP are too busy singing the chorus to "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn" to depose him. Or attempt to. In fairness, they are hobbled by a demented rulebook. They could always split. The question is whether their love of the Labour brand exceeds their loathing of the far left.
Mr. Root, the far left abuse?
While Welsh First Minister Carwyn Jones was able to attend Ms Sturgeon sent her deputy John Swinney to represent Scotland instead.
Mr Swinney then made matters worse by not wearing a poppy like most of the other distinguished guests and instead putting an SNP lapel badge on his jacket.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/836255/Passchendaele-battle-2017-commemorations-Jeremy-Corbyn-Nicola-Sturgeon-holiday
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/benefits-sanction-resulted-in-my-brother-david-clapson-s-death-says-gill-thompson-as-she-pleads-for-a6911386.html
"He's a far left friend of Hamas!"
"Yes, but he lost the election by a smaller margin than we expected."
That should not be interpreted as me being a supporter of Hamas' miltary activities.
Describing yourself as a friend of a group that has thrown political opponents and homosexuals from rooftops, and which denies the right of Israel to exist, less so.
And in reply to Square Root, I wouldn't interrupt a holiday to go to an event about Paschendaele either. It was a tragic waste, but a very long time ago, and I rreally wonder if next year when we've celebrated the centenary of the end of WW1, it isn't time to move on from it.
A new body called the UK Trade Remedies Organisation will be set up to tackle allegations of unfair competition and investigate complaints.
The online advert for a digital design lead said the organisation needs to be up and running by October 2018 - ahead of the UK's exit in March 2019.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-40803267
Thank heavens for Donald Trump and his ability to create news and turn into into a thread about him serving a full term.
You are right about the Labour Party being revitalised. Jezza did well. Much better than expected, but I'm sure that, like Mr Micawber, the majority of members are operating on a "something will turn up" basis, rather than being active supporters of their leader.
Also interesting to note that the law firm instructed by the family is Leigh Day, who are still under investigation and have had their senior partner struck off for their behaviour in suing British soldiers.
For Lab, they all knew Jezza was useless to start with.
Still, there is a whole world out there for market making as the wider PB market matures. Perhaps it is a good time to really get under the skin of the German election in this lull before events bring new markets online?
First, thanks for the kind comments about my piece on the London elections from yesterday morning. I think it a little narcissistic to comment on your own thread but those received were interesting and I should point out the piece was started about 10 days after the GE when Labour's position looked stronger than it does now.
It will be interesting to see if those who turned out in such numbers for Labour in London in June will do so for the local contests next year but the notion that boroughs such as Croydon, Merton, Redbridge and Enfield are now beyond the reach of the Conservatives shows how far London has moved in the last 20 years (I remember the first Labour win in Croydon as being a political earthquake).
I'll try and do a refresher in the autumn and another next spring. It will be fascinating to see if we have any early autumn by-elections in London - those we've had have tended to be in strong Labour areas (St Helier in Merton) and tell us nothing.
Second, it would be good if those who contribute daily or regularly actually tried writing a thread of their own. A number of people always seem to have something to say so why not put up a topic. I'd make three points:
1) Don't make it a party political polemic or rant.
2) Put in at least two 1980s pop references.
3) Put in at least one reference to either Kylie Minogue or Star Trek. I did toy with "there's more chance of Labour winning Westminster than the Romulans conquering the Federation" but as I already had Kylie (so to speak), I felt it superfluous.
On the header, well yes, it's been a frenetic political period since 2014 (two GEs and two huge referenda plus a US election) and I suspect all those actively involved will welcome a period of calm.
It gives us all an opportunity to think beyond the baseline and consider other topics.
There are big questions about how we live and how we want to live and what kind of people and society we want to be which don't get much airing (usually because they are challenging and there are no easy answers).
https://tinyurl.com/y8lluoov
This isn't the sort of things that people like us do! he's behaving like an uneducated oaf, the man is uncouth. Yes, and that's possibly why so many voted for him. He's doing what it said on the tin - behaving like a spoilt business tycoon with no moderating voices around him.
So here's a clue to the hysterics. Don't react as if every detail is infamy.
I may be a bad person, but I suspect that if the Hillary camp had been offered bad stuff on Trump by the Russians, they'd have jumped at the chance. They'd have done a better job at hiding it, though. And of course, she knows how to behave.
"There are big questions about how we live and how we want to live and what kind of people and society we want to be which don't get much airing (usually because they are challenging and there are no easy answers)."
Indeed... and what are those big questions? My starters for 10, expressed as issues rather than questions:
- governance in an increasingly interdependent world
- the moral hazard of state welfare (and state underwriting of financial institutions)
- the relative rewards for capital and labour in an increasingly automated world
- can Leoinid Slutsky take City straight back into the premiership?
OK, the last one was a question, but it's much the most critical.
North Korea is a problem which directly concerns Japan, South Korea an other pro-Washington states in Asia and none will welcome a deterioration in Sino-American relations but Trumps' tweets on China aren't encouraging.
The one encouraging (and concerning) sign is the rise of the civilian (and non-civilian) military within the Trump Administration. I suspect that with Kelly and McMaster calling the shots (so to speak), there will be a settling down but it will mark a divergence from traditional civilian-run party-led Governments and the emergence of a more technocratic non-partisan administration.
I wonder how long the Telegraph will keep up its very pro-Brexit line. The written press is one of Brexit's last lines of defence.
When you understand that the world isn't binary, and there are many degrees of grey between the black and white proposals she insists are the only choices, you write her off as an just another ill informed vessel.
Trump isn't likely to be a good president. On that we agree. He could learn by listening to wiser counsel - we can only hope so. However , some of the criticism verges on the hysterical, because it concerns his uncouth manner rather than the crime. And being uncouth will make him a special target for some.
I'd be interested in what the Russians thought they had on Hillary. it wouldn't be her table manners.
Both teachers, so presumably jobs are reasonably secure.
Best of luck with your purchasers, Mr P.
The British state is steaming towards its third disaster in 15 years, after the Iraq war and the financial crisis.
Mind you my onward purchase is such a bargain I daren't post it up here
For Immigration, I suspect NI will remain a free EU movement area like other anomalies in and around the EU, but extension of that to the mainland will be controlled at Ports and Airports (as is largely is now - you cannot travel without ID). Both sides would not want a hard border, so it might be less contentious than it currently appears.
I suspect that the UK govt will allow NI greater freedom to harmonise certain rules with the EU, via the Stormont assembly when it is re-established also. But this will depend on whether the NI politicians can agree to sensible terms for doing so. If they can't then the situation does become much more difficult.
"This generation of mostly former public schoolboys didn’t want Brussels running Britain. That was their caste’s prerogative."
That being said, he is more a reversion to how things were done a while ago. The promotion of friends and family (being the only ones that could be trusted) and the by-passing of the traditional Government machine have been seen before. It is the mark of the populist outsider who is deeply distrusting of Government and prefers instead to have less experienced but more personally "known" people to deal with.
Oddly enough, I see shades (but only shades) of how the Third Reich functioned as a Government in Trump's behaviour. I'm not for a nanosecond suggesting any ideological similarities but the practice of moving favour from person to person and keeping everyone off balance and vying for that favour is basically how the Reich operated in Government.
Washington isn't going to play those games and as the GOP has failed to control Trump, the military (in the shape of Kelly and McMaster) have taken over. The one area where Trump lacks influence is with the military in terms of not having within his immediate circle a military man so he has had to go beyond and Kelly has come in to restore order to the West Wing and McMaster has slowly edged out the Trump sycophants and now runs the NSC in a much more organised way.
Again, oddly enough, in the day to day functioning of Government, Trump is becoming largely irrelevant and we're seeing the evolution of a more technocratic administration which will, I think, serve America and the world well in the months to come.
I really struggle to understand this assumption that asking people to vote again would result in the "correct" outcome.
My guess is that LEAVE would win by an even bigger margin than 2016.
A second referendum would only come about in circumstances where Brexit had already failed, and already been seen to fail. That's why a second referendum is unwinnable for Leave.
I thought "no deal is better than a bad deal" was reasonable.
You've learned absolutely nothing over the past 2-3 years have you?
Certainly Kelly and McMaster seem to be in the ascendant, but it will be interesting to watch how long McMaster in particular lasts, as he has steadily been removing Trump loyalists from the NSC...
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/08/a-national-security-council-staffer-is-forced-out-over-a-controversial-memo/535725/
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/08/hr-mcmaster-cleans-house-at-the-national-security-council/535767/
Sooner or later, I expect Trump to see this him getting above himself (there are plenty in the White House who will drip that poison in his ear), and fire him.
In the Trump universe, subservience is all. Those who forget that don't last.
I think that our behaviour and total lack of preparedness have severely diminished our reputation as a competent nation and having a buffoon as Foreign Sec is not exactly helpful either.
Meanwhile, if anyone is interested in sensible discussion, let me know
The UK isn't giving in to the EU's every demand but that's different to not being prepared...
On your other points: I don't think there's any problem in commenting on your own thread if you are asked direct questions by commenters or once everyone else has had a fair chance to say their piece.
Headers can provoke but they must also inform. Great provocation requires great information. (Equally, posters who are greatly provoked should always consider whether the problem is theirs rather than the header writer's, and what information has been given along with the provocation.)
One of the pleasures of writing headers is sneaking in cultural references and seeing whether they are spotted.
https://twitter.com/martinselmayr/status/893039226572427264
It might have the side benefit of forcing the Conservatives to alight on a single position on the Brexit negotiations. For a government, more than one position is no better than none.
I was concerned my piece was by definition London-centric and some of the regulars make a point of saying they don't live in "that London". Fine - the truth is the London local and Mayoral contests (though in the case of Newham contest is probably overstating it) will be reported as being of national relevance and the Conservatives still hold 21 seats in the capital - no one is saying that London will follow Liverpool and Manchester and eliminate all Conservative MPs but it may become more like Birmingham with the Conservatives reduced to the leafiest fringes)
1) They lost and lost badly, and ended up with nothing;
2) They have, however, done much less badly than expected due to some fancy footwork at the last minute, so they can pass it off as a triumph;
3) They have no clue what to do next and are vaguely hoping that events will go their way;
4) They will survive, to fight back at some unspecified future date, but as the alternative was with hindsight never likely unless they did something ultra-cretinous like surrender/disband that doesn't leave them much further forward;
5) All informed opinion is thinking radical changes are needed but the ones who messed up so spectacularly are digging their heels in and ignoring reality.
The question is, will Brexit then turn into Barbarossa (with us as the Wehrmacht)?
One of the most surreal moments on here was when a poster told me that the dementia tax would be unpopular with Northern voters because they wouldn't want to lose all the equity in their £450,000 ex-council three bed semi.
What was really surreal was that he meant it.
Better the devil you know, I guess.
But, Greater London Conservatives seem destined to become like New York Republicans, capable of winning here and there, but operating in an overwhelmingly left wing environment.
Dunkirk was an existential crisis for the country and (probably) Europe too - very hard to exaggerate it's significance or the sacrifices of so many. 2017 GE, was just a minor feck-up where LAbour did a better and the Tories worse than most expected.
(Apols, I appreciate I am taking your post too seriously but seeing the film last week made a deep impresion on my perception of Dunkirk. Any attempt to parallel it into Con/Lab or Brexit terms is at risk of diminishing Dunkirk.)