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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The BES polling chart that surely means that GE2017 was TMay’s
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The BES polling chart that surely means that GE2017 was TMay’s first and last election as leader
How voters learned to like JC and dislike TMay. From BBC commissioned academic study of what happened at GE2017. https://t.co/CdPw6Vn8tz pic.twitter.com/MWwDSSXR34
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Like they did in 2005 with David Davis.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/04/the-polling-that-should-worry-mrs-may-and-all-tories/
For example, the Conservatives lead Labour by more than 40 percentage points among those most in favour of full control of immigration, with Labour having a similar lead among those wanting complete access to the single market.
In effect this meant the Tories were the party of hard Brexit, while Labour was the party of soft Brexit.
The Lib Dems were not the first choice for those favouring a soft Brexit - possibly because of the lingering effects of coalition government, a perception of ineffective leadership and a realisation that they could not win in most seats.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40630242
Our pre-election survey, carried out in April and May, found that the Conservatives enjoyed a healthy lead over Labour of 41% to 27%.
But by the last three days of the campaign, our daily panel put the two main parties neck and neck.
Overall, 19% of voters switched parties between the April/May survey and the election.
This is similar to the amount of "churn" we saw in 2015, when 17% of voters switched parties, and slightly less than at the 2010 and 2005 elections.
But the significant difference in 2017 was that the flow was overwhelmingly in one direction.
In 2015, Labour and the Conservatives both won about a quarter of these late-switching voters - effectively cancelling each other out.
However, in 2017 Labour won 54% of switchers, compared with 19% for the Conservatives.
Additionally, Labour won more than half of those who hadn't made up their minds before the campaign.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40630242
1. A new leader untainted by Brexit.
2. Brexit to have happened.
3. Some credible, popular policies.
4. Jeremy Corbyn in charge of Labour.
If they get these they win next time.
'Patrick, listen to me, we are about to lose this fucking election'
The Conservative MP Nicky Morgan has asked the Bank of England to provide comprehensive details of the City’s readiness for a hard Brexit
So the voters are more volatile, but at the same time, some allegiances are shifting permanently. I don't think that middle class Conservatives who switched to Labour over Brexit are coming back, nor do I think right wing working class voters will be returning to Labour.
He also created a vacancy for TMay to fill, after misrepresenting her ability by leaving her in the HO for years because he couldn't be arsed to move her.
How could you forget the Indyref?
Also, I think Cameron did put the effort in, he simply drastically misunderstood the electorate. Said it at the time, but using a term like 'Little England' in a campaign where most of the voters are English is bloody stupid (despite the giggling glee of some Remain supporters), as was Obama's 'back of the queue' nonsense.
In some ways I think the leadership ratings are both examples of over-egging a message. Theresa May is clearly a reasonably rational, level-headed administrator, Corbyn is clearly a reasonably calm, pleasant exponent of his views. By portraying them as a champion of incredible strength and a terror-loving villain from Central Casting, the Tory campaign came to seem increasingly incredible, which then rubbed off on everything else they said.
Which is good. The idea that no message can ever be over-exaggerated (and Labour has done it often enough) does real harm to British politics. Love live nuance!
It was the allegations that he told Dave he wouldn't campaign for Leave or attack his fellow Tories during the campaign.
If that had been the case, he wouldn't have tried for a renegotiation or held a referendum.
I'm always gratified by the certainty so many on here seem to have about future events. The next election is (probably) the thick end of five years away yet SO already says the Conservatives have won.
Astounding.
What does for Governments isn't Oppositions generally but the perception the Government has stopped governing and is more interested in other pursuits such as internecine conflict or has simply lost control of events. The Callaghan and Major Governments, albeit under very different circumstances, reached a point of political collapse.
The Brown Government didn't but the cumulative damage of the worst financial crisis since the 1930s did for them.
The view I have of the current Government is the archetypal ferrets in the sack. May's authority was shattered by her failed political gamble - her attempts to try to impose some form of authority now look sad and desperate. The contenders jockey for influence and there are clear factions.
Now, I don't care about the Conservative Party - they could disband tomorrow and do us all a favour - but I do care about the governance of the country and while some so-called "experts" on here seem to think all is going swimmingly with the A50 negotiations, the furore over when Freedom of Movement will end is symptomatic of a Cabinet not all singing from the same hymn sheet.
Most Governments fail because the relationship between 10 and 11 Downing Street fails or fractures. I suspect we will discover in time the Cameron-Osborne relationship failed just as the Blair-Brown, Thatcher-Lawson and Thatcher-Howe relationships ultimately broke down. The May-Hammond relationship looks disjointed and to be honest if he wants to run the country he shouldn't wait until the Prime Minister is up a Swiss mountain but actively stand against her and argue for his "soft" or "transition-heavy" Brexit.
He won't because he knows he won't win and as TSE frequently tells us, he (or she) who wields the knife never gets to wear the crown (ok, Thatcher did).
Thus we have within the Cabinet what we have had since 23/6/16 - the general agreement is we want to leave the EU (well, 52% do but that's enough apparently) but there is huge disagreement over how and on what terms we will leave. That debate and discussion never got going in the long months of the May tenure - indeed, the whole line seemed to be "trust me, I'll sort it out". People like that because it stops them having to think or do anything but it's time we lost and wasted and now we're seeing the fruits of that indecision.
Jezza is one small step from No. 10.
She wouldn't have lost Dave's majority within a year for starters.
come to terms with it
#spineless
Remain was lost on the playing fields of Eton
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-manufacturing-july-industry-exports-economy-brexit-eu-leave-survey-a7870311.html
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/87967/ken-livingstone-blames-us-and-‘establishment-elite
I still get the sense of a fin-de-siècle splurge of economic activity and spending before what many think will be a sharp slowdown immediately before and during the end of the A50 process. People are spending it while they have it because they don't think they'll have it in the future and the perpetuation of historically low interest rates encourages borrowing to spend and consume which is good for the economy in the short term but does nothing for our obscene levels of personal and consumer debt about which no one seems that bothered.
For those who think Brexit is the greatest thing that has ever happened and will lead to decades of unparalleled prosperity, all good news is of course great news.
[For those unaware, a 0.1% rise in inflation months ago was reported as a spike by Sky News].
And while I'm here it's always depressing to see Amber Rudd in the news, I honestly do not think she has a bloody clue about technology and security.
The second paragraph quoted here shows she is clueless.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/08/to-find-out-why-people-value-whatsapp-encryption-rudd-should-talk-to-her-own-colleagues.html
The focus now should be on trying to find someone suitable to take over from her.
One for the counterfactual buffs is what would the Britain of 2017 look like if there had been no world wars in the 20th Century ? Just a thought.
The history of the 21st Century will profoundly affect the Britain in which we live - try to imagine life in 2117 Britain - not easy, is it ?
https://stephenwilliamsmp.wordpress.com/2017/07/31/liberal-democrats-111-mps-so-far-but-where-next/
RPI has far more impact on people than CPI but the media rarelt quote the RPI.
(Inflation linked gilts are linked to RPI, many company pensions are linked to RPI, rail fares are linked to RPI etc.)
Plus GDP should be quoted as GDP per head of the population.
I'll be surprised if the Silicon Valley executives can keep a straight face whilst listening to Rudd.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Liberal_Democrat_MPs
Conservative PMs lose their jobs over Europe. That is not how it works. A number of MPS, I think 35, have to write a letter asserting no confidence. There is then a confidence vote. If the leader loses they are out and cannot be a candidate in the ensuing election. There is no mechanism to 'actively stand against her'. The 1975 leadership election was in fact called by Heath. Hugh Fraser and Thatcher stood against him. In the second round, whe he was eliminated, there were four candidates. We hear this crown thing a lot but AFAIK the only individual to whom it actually applies is Heseltine.
Cameron also lost because of Europe of course.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/40776162
She's a good TV performer maybe, but her understanding of any brief seems to be puddle deep, and yet nobody seems to notice. She just doesn't seem to do research - a purely political animal.
It all went wrong after 2012, when the car was unreliable but very quick. They went for a different suspension approach which lost them performance, then switched to Honda, which proved about as wise as accepting an offer of a handjob from Edward Scissorhands.
When I was down at the Test I noticed that notwithstanding these figures the south side of the Thames seems to be as covered with cranes as ever.