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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories remain on 28pc with ComRes online while LAB extends

SystemSystem Posts: 12,250
edited August 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories remain on 28pc with ComRes online while LAB extends lead

EdM has his worst ever good LAB leader ratings from ComRes but his net only 1% down on Cameron pic.twitter.com/tWIwcvnzoz

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Hhmmmm
  • Blofelds_CatBlofelds_Cat Posts: 154
    Barely disguised glee in the Smithson household.

    I think I would be quite good at being PM.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    UKIP about 7% higher than with other pollsters, Cons about 4% lower (Lab 1%).

    Is that a prompting difference? Anything else to it?
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    So keeping Ed off the air , no major speeches at all. and the poll goes up slightly.. gonna be fun when the election campaigns start..maybe a paper bag will do the trick
  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    Labour yet again in the 36-40% bracket. Red Ed's leadership qualities or lack of are surely now priced in. Looks like the crossover Lib Dem limpets are going to vote Labour no mater what. Looks like no matter what the Conservatives say or who they hire, they cannot crack the Labour bracket.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Labour have at last found the magic bullet that will lead to election victory ... Keep Ed off the air, no speeches..no public appearances..no policy statements..Looking good for the Reds ..
    Now what was the leaders name again?..
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited August 2013
    Interesting comment on the Com Res poll from Anthony Wells:

    The rest of the poll has lots of my beloved agree/disagree statements, but of particular interest is one that was a repeat from way back in 2009. Back then 58% of people agreed that citizens of other EU countries should have the right to live and work in the UK, four years on, with immigration within the European Union having become more of an issue, that figure has dropped to 23%, with 57% disagreeing that EU citizens should have the right to live and work here.

    tim will no doubt dismiss the poll as a rogue.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,423
    edited August 2013
    Is there a book open anywhere for who the prime suspect is for who greased the breaks? ;)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,047
    What should encourage Labour is that Ed's ratings have every possibility of improving. He's still relatively unknown. Cameron's by contrast are only likely to go down. If voters don't like him now they never will.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    This poll is a very cold bath for the conservatives.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Roger "Ed is unknown" that is a statement of the bleeding obvious...Can't wait until his magnetic, charming personality is unleashed on an unsuspecting voting public..along with a few policies...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,845
    Roger said:

    What should encourage Labour is that Ed's ratings have every possibility of improving. He's still relatively unknown. Cameron's by contrast are only likely to go down. If voters don't like him now they never will.

    I'm not sure that's a valid conclusion. Voters are very fickle, as can be seen by the gradual change.

    It's interesting to see that most of Ed's decline during the period shown was down to 'Don't knows' moving to 'disagree'. Cameron's 'Don't knows' have been much more stable. This is almost certainly due to the fact that Ed had just become leader at the start of the tables, when he was a relatively unknown quantity.

    It might be interesting to see similar charts for a similar three-year period after Cameron was elected leader (or perhaps another set of him against Brown after Brown became PM). I.e. the honeymoon periods for new leaders.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Anyone else still waiting for Ladbrokes to settle the 'Paxman's beard on Aug 16th' market? It was full beard, right? He hasn't shaved that I can see. Come on Shadsy...
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    How large a group was the "don't know, won't say"?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Swift. Decisive. Ruthless.

    @Andrew_ComRes
    ComRes for IoS/SM has Ed M net leader ratings down to worst ever -28, down from -11 in May http://ht.ly/o1d6B
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    @Jonathan - Found any links for the absurd straw man argument you tried to introduce earlier? That being that supporters of fracking say it is zero-risk, free and unlimited. Or have you, uncharacteristcally showing a little wisdom, shelved that one?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    New ComRes poll has UKIP on 19% tonight. Four party politics is here to stay.

    Mike Smithson fails to mention UKIP keeps up momentum, I wonder why?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,314
    ComRes/The Sunil on Sunday:

    Labour 37
    Coalition 36
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    SeanT said:

    Something for everyone here. Disastrous polls for Miliband, but calamitous polls for the Tories, consistent support for UKIP, so all parties can.... oh, wait, the Lib Dems, uniquely, can take no solace at all.

    Funny that goes unmentioned.

    If you are in UKIP surely its excellent, no publicity for months and still 19.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited August 2013
    ComRes don't prompt for UKIP!

    "Q.3 If there was a general election tomorrow, would you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or some other party?"

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/SM_IoS_Political_Poll_August_2013.pdf

    http://www.comres.co.uk/poll-digest/10/public-poll-methodology.htm
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,011
    Ed has got a very long way indeed to go until he plumbs the depths of awfulness set by Gordon Brown and Michael Foot.

    All three parties, in my view, have capable leaders and that surely is the point beyond which their prime importance ends. When you have a capable leader then policy becomes the most important thing. (Of course there's a loop here in that leaders influence policy etc, but hey).

    Labour definitely lack a bit in terms of policy at the moment. Beyond actual current government policy the other two parties do too maybe.

    I don't pretend to keep up to date with all party policies, but the one 'change' that I can think of that will (definitely!!-hah, you say) be delivered is the EU referendum if the Tories form a majority government. Given that all three parties are actually proposing a change of government it'd be nice if there were some actual certainties in all this.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes

    ComRes for IoS/SM: 67% say firms shd be able to favour Brits over other EU citizens "even if UK forced to leave EU" http://ht.ly/o1drB

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Voters oppose free movement of EU workers

    Voters have turned against the principle of free movement of workers in the European Union over the past four years, according to a ComRes poll for tomorrow’s The Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror.

    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2013/08/17/voters-oppose-free-movement-of-eu-workers/
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    The Ukipper @TheUkipper

    UKIP at 25% in Wales. (Comres Poll)

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    This passed to me this instant:
    UKIP at 25% in Wales. (Comres Poll)

    Must be the language. :)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    I thought tonight was going to be night of that outlier when the great crossover would have taken place. Well, never mind.

    I repeat as others have also said the same thing: Labour 29% [ from 2010 ] + LD 8% from 2010 gives 37%. Tories start at 37% and will lose 3% to UKIP. So, for the Tories to take a lead of 8% on Labour, they need to take 11% of the LD's. If that is case, the LD's will end up at just 5%.

    LD's will get about 15% in the next election. Labour will get, at least 35%., UKIP 6%. That leaves the Tories at 37%. That is the very best the Tories can hope for.

    Labour majority party ! If UKIP gets 8%, then Ed will be at No.10 without any help.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited August 2013
    Q6. David Cameron is turning out to be a good PM? (p.58)

    UKIP: +14% / -73%
    Don't Know: +20% / -44%
    LD: +29% / -52%
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    By the poll tonight on EU immigration,labours immigration speech last week must have worked ;-)
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    @surbiton
    LD's will get about 15% in the next election. Labour will get, at least 35%., UKIP 6%. That leaves the Tories at 37%. That is the very best the Tories can hope for.

    Cloud cukoo land figures by a wishful thinker.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    Something for everyone here. Disastrous polls for Miliband, but calamitous polls for the Tories, consistent support for UKIP, so all parties can.... oh, wait, the Lib Dems, uniquely, can take no solace at all.

    Funny that goes unmentioned.

    If you are in UKIP surely its excellent, no publicity for months and still 19.
    Yep, great poll for them, I was just focussing on the poor LDs being stuck on a wretched 8, because, weirdly, OGH does not see this catastrophe as being noteworthy.
    The Lib Dems on 8 is dire been in government has its compensations for the individuals with a minesterial seat.

    However they seem remarkably calm that they may be facing a rout in 2015, especially outside the south.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MikeK said:

    This passed to me this instant:
    UKIP at 25% in Wales. (Comres Poll)

    Must be the language. :)

    subsample, m'dear
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    anotherDave said:

    Q6. David Cameron is turning out to be a good PM? (p.58)

    UKIP: +14% / -73%
    Don't Know: +20% / -44%

    Do you really think these kippers will go back to the Tories under Dave or will they stay at home ?

    The Tories are between a rock and a hard place. They need gimmicks to prove how "tough" they are on immigrants to bring some kippers back. But it pisses off many centrists including many ethnic voters who might have voted for them.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    ComRes

    Q.6 Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?
    Ed Miliband is right to accept that the last Labour government made major mistakes on immigration
    Base: All respondents:

    Agree: 76
    Disagree: 8
    DK: 16

    Q.6 Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?
    It is wrong for firms to recruit from overseas while a million young people in Britain are unemployed
    Base: All respondent

    Agree: 74
    Disagree:14
    DK: 14

    Q.6 Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?
    Businesses cannot be blamed for hiring foreign workers because too many British workers are lazy
    Base: All respondents

    Agree: 35 (Cons & LDs mostly)
    Disagree: 48 (Lab & UKIP mostly)
    DK: 17

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,845
    surbiton said:

    anotherDave said:

    Q6. David Cameron is turning out to be a good PM? (p.58)

    UKIP: +14% / -73%
    Don't Know: +20% / -44%

    Do you really think these kippers will go back to the Tories under Dave or will they stay at home ?

    The Tories are between a rock and a hard place. They need gimmicks to prove how "tough" they are on immigrants to bring some kippers back. But it pisses off many centrists including many ethnic voters who might have voted for them.
    That's the problem with this talk - many will not be 'kippers'. They have been asked a question in a poll, and currently their answer is for UKIP. They are not members, and some will not have seen the full gamut of their policies, which may convince them either way.

    I am amongst those who think that the polling for UKIP in a GE is way off. I expect them to do very well in the Euros, though.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,037
    Evening all :)

    So we accept this poll as gospel yet ICM has the LDs at 14% and UKIP at 10% so that's a huge discrepancy.

    Somebody is wrong somewhere.
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    Yep, the public are stubbornly immune to the "narrative" that the Tories and their media have been desperately trying to construct.

    Ed, of course, just chilled whilst the Tories were running round like madmen trying to gain the upper hand. Probably laughing at them.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    So we accept this poll as gospel yet ICM has the LDs at 14% and UKIP at 10% so that's a huge discrepancy.

    Somebody is wrong somewhere.

    True but the Labour % per cent seems very consistent in all polls 36 to 40.



  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    So we accept this poll as gospel yet ICM has the LDs at 14% and UKIP at 10% so that's a huge discrepancy.

    Somebody is wrong somewhere.

    UKIP is over-estimated and LD's under-estimated.

    It would be interesting to see the distribution of LD voters. What do the local by-elections tell us.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited August 2013
    surbiton said:

    anotherDave said:

    Q6. David Cameron is turning out to be a good PM? (p.58)

    UKIP: +14% / -73%
    Don't Know: +20% / -44%

    Do you really think these kippers will go back to the Tories under Dave or will they stay at home ?

    The Tories are between a rock and a hard place. They need gimmicks to prove how "tough" they are on immigrants to bring some kippers back. But it pisses off many centrists including many ethnic voters who might have voted for them.
    A majority of voters are anti-immigration. Not just UKIP supporters.

    q.6 All citizens of other European Union countries should have the right to live and work in the UK. (p.62)

    Con: +21% / -61%
    Lab: +26% / -58%
    LD: +45% / -34%
    UKIP: +5% / -86%
    Don't Know: +22% / -41%
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited August 2013
    The last topic by @david_herdson was, looking back, excellent in many ways. It was thought provoking and so it encouraged some educational and non-partisan comments; it also unusually stayed on topic right to the end. Thanks again David.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    @JosiasJessop

    "That's the problem with this talk - many will not be 'kippers'. They have been asked a question in a poll, and currently their answer is for UKIP. They are not members, and some will not have seen the full gamut of their policies, which may convince them either way."

    One of the most stupid paragraphs I've ever read. Do you expect only UKIP members will vote for that party at the GE. If you think that, then you can say that only Tory members will vote Tory, etc. Ridiculous!

    UKIP will gain ever more members and adherents, so don't think you can put the clock back.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited August 2013
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    So we accept this poll as gospel yet ICM has the LDs at 14% and UKIP at 10% so that's a huge discrepancy.

    Somebody is wrong somewhere.


    Why throw out all the polling when you can simply use the all polls average which gives a good picture of what's happening.


    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

    The tories were unquestionably doing better after May with a blatantly obvious correlation. Recently they started banging on about immigration again which always runs the danger of giving the kippers a boost.

    If the tory spin machine still hasn't learned from the May local election results and Eastleigh precisely what happens when they bang on about core kipper issues, then they never will.

    They'll find out yet again if the swivel-eyed loons decide to bang on about floods of Romanians and Bulgarians.



  • NextNext Posts: 826
    COMedy RESults
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,854
    richardDodd said:

    Roger "Ed is unknown" that is a statement of the bleeding obvious...Can't wait until his magnetic, charming personality is unleashed on an unsuspecting voting public..along with a few policies...

    You mean like Attlee? Vs Churchill.
    Just think what he could have done if he'd been better known and up against someone like Cameron!
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    I'm quite amused that the link to UKIP's website on google says this:

    "Libertarian, non-racist party seeking Britain's withdrawal from the European Union"

    Actually calling itself a "non-racist" party is surely akin to a person who, perhaps after expressing some borderline racist views, likes to point out that they "have black friends"

    And similar, I feel, to the "United People's Party" who contested the by-election the other night; I think they describe themselves as "non-xenophobic"
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,845
    MikeK said:

    @JosiasJessop

    "That's the problem with this talk - many will not be 'kippers'. They have been asked a question in a poll, and currently their answer is for UKIP. They are not members, and some will not have seen the full gamut of their policies, which may convince them either way."

    One of the most stupid paragraphs I've ever read. Do you expect only UKIP members will vote for that party at the GE. If you think that, then you can say that only Tory members will vote Tory, etc. Ridiculous!

    UKIP will gain ever more members and adherents, so don't think you can put the clock back.

    You miss my point: referring to people who answer 'UKIP' to a polling question as 'kippers' is blatantly false. In the same way calling people who answer 'Conservative' are all 'Tories', or people who answer 'Labour' 'Labourites'.

    If it was that simple, then polling and politics would be much simpler.

    The majority will be non-members, will owe no particular allegiance to UKIP, and can probably be won back by the Conservatives (and the other parties) with effort. Especially as the new UKIP base level has yet to be determined.

    UKIP's entire effort should be towards keeping as many of the people who answer 'UKIP' in polling questions within their tent. That is not a done deal.

    And it will not be a done deal as long as UKIppers such as yourself and others are so stupidly aggressive.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Also, both the UKIP link and the BNP link on google have sub-links to the Woolwich killing. Do UKIP need to posture in the style of the UPP/BNP to attract supporters?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,037
    Of even more amusement - the combined Con/UKIP share so beloved of Sunil (make sure those trains are on time tomorrow, my friend):

    ICM: 42%
    IPSOS-MORI: 41%
    YouGov (latest): 45%
    Populus (latest): 44%
    ComRes: 47%

    Plenty of variety, volatility, variability and vagaries on offer there.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited August 2013
    Diana trending on twitter for some strange reason.
    James Manning ‏@JamesManning4 4h

    'Scotland Yard assessing new information relating to the death of Princess Diana'. <-- *Daily Express explodes* </p>
    How will Desmond cover this we wonder? ;)

    LOL
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Mick_Pork said:

    Diana trending on twitter for some strange reason.

    James Manning ‏@JamesManning4 4h

    'Scotland Yard assessing new information relating to the death of Princess Diana'. <-- *Daily Express explodes* </p>
    How will Desmond cover this we wonder? ;)

    LOL

    Princess Diana death: Police probe sensational claim she was killed by the SAS

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/princess-diana-death-police-probe-2179191#ixzz2cGBlgFUI
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    edited August 2013
    Blair didn't take long to make an impact as Leader of The Opposition, he didn't need 2 years for the public to recognise him as an exceptional politician. Ed M is not in Blair's class. Blair did more to damage the Tories as an electoral force than any other Labour leader, and too may of the current Labour supporters forget his strengths. Blair convinced floating voters, and Tory voters that he was a PM in waiting. 1997 was followed by another crushing GE victory in 2002. Cameron had a mountain to climb to turn the Tories round from 165 seats in 1997 & 166 in 2001, to 198 in 2005.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited August 2013
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Diana trending on twitter for some strange reason.

    James Manning ‏@JamesManning4 4h

    'Scotland Yard assessing new information relating to the death of Princess Diana'. <-- *Daily Express explodes* </p>
    How will Desmond cover this we wonder? ;)

    LOL
    Princess Diana death: Police probe sensational claim she was killed by the SAS

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/princess-diana-death-police-probe-2179191#ixzz2cGBlgFUI
    The seven-page hand-written letter – a copy of which has been seen by the Sunday People – also makes allegations over Soldier N’s behaviour towards his wife and her family following the collapse of the couple’s marriage.
    If the Sunday Peephole beat the Sunday sExpress to this one Desmond will NOT be a happy bunny. That's his story they are treading on.

    This should prove hilarious.


  • NextNext Posts: 826
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Diana trending on twitter for some strange reason.

    James Manning ‏@JamesManning4 4h

    'Scotland Yard assessing new information relating to the death of Princess Diana'. <-- *Daily Express explodes* </p>
    How will Desmond cover this we wonder? ;)

    LOL
    Princess Diana death: Police probe sensational claim she was killed by the SAS

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/princess-diana-death-police-probe-2179191#ixzz2cGBlgFUI


    What part of "Rest in Peace" do they not understand.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Next said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Diana trending on twitter for some strange reason.

    James Manning ‏@JamesManning4 4h

    'Scotland Yard assessing new information relating to the death of Princess Diana'. <-- *Daily Express explodes* </p>
    How will Desmond cover this we wonder? ;)

    LOL
    Princess Diana death: Police probe sensational claim she was killed by the SAS

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/princess-diana-death-police-probe-2179191#ixzz2cGBlgFUI
    What part of "Rest in Peace" do they not understand.

    The part where it sells shitloads of papers.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,314
    stodge said:

    Of even more amusement - the combined Con/UKIP share so beloved of Sunil (make sure those trains are on time tomorrow, my friend):

    ICM: 42%
    IPSOS-MORI: 41%
    YouGov (latest): 45%
    Populus (latest): 44%
    ComRes: 47%

    Plenty of variety, volatility, variability and vagaries on offer there.

    All in the low-to-mid 40s.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    I think Omnium is correct that all the parties have reasonably competent leaders, though leaders who aren't highly rated by the public, and that's making the leadership ratings less significant - you just don't meet voters who say "I'm going to vote to stop X" about any of the three. The Tories were convinced that they were onto a winner with the "Miliband is silent and weak" theme and they played it non-stop for a month, to no effect whatever. I wonder if they'll keep trying, or switch to something else?

    A more general point is that we all overestimate the effect of any political event. Miliband is hit by an egg - does he gain credit for stoicism or derision for the incident? Neither, people don't care. Bryant makes a shaky speech on an issue many people do care about, do the public rejoice or recoil? Neither, they don't notice. The same goes for gaffes by the other parties. Perhaps we should all just shut up until about April 2015?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,037
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    stodge said:

    Of even more amusement - the combined Con/UKIP share so beloved of Sunil (make sure those trains are on time tomorrow, my friend):

    ICM: 42%
    IPSOS-MORI: 41%
    YouGov (latest): 45%
    Populus (latest): 44%
    ComRes: 47%

    Plenty of variety, volatility, variability and vagaries on offer there.

    All in the low-to-mid 40s.
    That's a big difference across the polls from 41 to 47. Let's hope Epping to Ongar doesn't have the same cavalier attitude to its timetable tomorrow as Mrs Stodge will be most displeased.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,314
    stodge said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    stodge said:

    Of even more amusement - the combined Con/UKIP share so beloved of Sunil (make sure those trains are on time tomorrow, my friend):

    ICM: 42%
    IPSOS-MORI: 41%
    YouGov (latest): 45%
    Populus (latest): 44%
    ComRes: 47%

    Plenty of variety, volatility, variability and vagaries on offer there.

    All in the low-to-mid 40s.
    That's a big difference across the polls from 41 to 47. Let's hope Epping to Ongar doesn't have the same cavalier attitude to its timetable tomorrow as Mrs Stodge will be most displeased.
    What cavalier attitude, Mr Stodge?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,037
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    stodge said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    stodge said:

    Of even more amusement - the combined Con/UKIP share so beloved of Sunil (make sure those trains are on time tomorrow, my friend):

    ICM: 42%
    IPSOS-MORI: 41%
    YouGov (latest): 45%
    Populus (latest): 44%
    ComRes: 47%

    Plenty of variety, volatility, variability and vagaries on offer there.

    All in the low-to-mid 40s.
    That's a big difference across the polls from 41 to 47. Let's hope Epping to Ongar doesn't have the same cavalier attitude to its timetable tomorrow as Mrs Stodge will be most displeased.
    What cavalier attitude, Mr Stodge?
    An attitude that sees no difference between 41 and 47. In polling terms, that's a yawning chasm. It's also interesting to note that it's ICM (the so-called Gold Standard) that has the lowest Con-UKIP share.

  • NextNext Posts: 826
    NickPalmer said:

    I think Omnium is correct that all the parties have reasonably competent leaders, though leaders who aren't highly rated by the public, and that's making the leadership ratings less significant - you just don't meet voters who say "I'm going to vote to stop X" about any of the three. The Tories were convinced that they were onto a winner with the "Miliband is silent and weak" theme and they played it non-stop for a month, to no effect whatever. I wonder if they'll keep trying, or switch to something else?

    A more general point is that we all overestimate the effect of any political event. Miliband is hit by an egg - does he gain credit for stoicism or derision for the incident? Neither, people don't care. Bryant makes a shaky speech on an issue many people do care about, do the public rejoice or recoil? Neither, they don't notice. The same goes for gaffes by the other parties. Perhaps we should all just shut up until about April 2015?

    "Miliband is silent and weak"

    I think you'll find that's a fact, not a theme.

    Oh, and can you get tim to shut up till April 2015...?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,953
    stodge said:

    Of even more amusement - the combined Con/UKIP share so beloved of Sunil (make sure those trains are on time tomorrow, my friend):

    ICM: 42%
    IPSOS-MORI: 41%
    YouGov (latest): 45%
    Populus (latest): 44%
    ComRes: 47%

    Plenty of variety, volatility, variability and vagaries on offer there.

    If one firm produced the five figures above in answer to a question, from five one-thousand respondent surveys, and the true figure was 44%, they would all be within the margin of error.

    As it is, they were produced on different days using different methodologies so you'd expect some variance anyway.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,550
    Good to see the Thatcher program again tonight.

    You can see how the underlying themes of today politics have developed.

    The various strands of then conservative thinking are clearly displayed, including the hatred for Thatcher. I wonder whether this program had an impact on conservative poling at the time it was originally shown in 1993?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,314
    stodge said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    stodge said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    stodge said:

    Of even more amusement - the combined Con/UKIP share so beloved of Sunil (make sure those trains are on time tomorrow, my friend):

    ICM: 42%
    IPSOS-MORI: 41%
    YouGov (latest): 45%
    Populus (latest): 44%
    ComRes: 47%

    Plenty of variety, volatility, variability and vagaries on offer there.

    All in the low-to-mid 40s.
    That's a big difference across the polls from 41 to 47. Let's hope Epping to Ongar doesn't have the same cavalier attitude to its timetable tomorrow as Mrs Stodge will be most displeased.
    What cavalier attitude, Mr Stodge?
    An attitude that sees no difference between 41 and 47. In polling terms, that's a yawning chasm. It's also interesting to note that it's ICM (the so-called Gold Standard) that has the lowest Con-UKIP share.

    Check your PB/Vanilla inbox, Mr Stodge.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Amazing.
    Sky News ‏@SkyNews 14m

    SUNDAY PEOPLE FRONT PAGE: Jaws off Cornwall #skypapers pic.twitter.com/QXKeyQHohD
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    All too predictable.
    Sky News ‏@SkyNews 3m

    SUNDAY EXPRESS FRONT PAGE: SAS link to Diana's death #skypapers pic.twitter.com/JEzG3cVvhH
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    David Cameron, eh. What priorities and judgement the man has.

    After leaving Britain early, Mr Cameron became the first world leader to visit Egypt since President Hosni Mubarak was toppled.

    Mr Cameron is still taking a large delegation from business and industry, including eight representatives of defence firms attempting to secure contracts in the Gulf states. Among them are: Ian King, chief executive of BAE Systems; Alastair Bisset, group international director at QinetiQ; and Rob Watson, regional director of Rolls-Royce.

    Meanwhile, the Defence minister Gerald Howarth is in Abu Dhabi, where he is leading Britain's biggest ever delegation to an international arms fair. More than 100 UK firms are showcasing their products at the International Defence Exhibition and Conference, which is aimed at governments in the Middle East and North Africa.
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    How many weapons that Cameron flogged to Egypt are now killing innocent people, I wonder.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,061
    Good evening, everyone.

    Not sure I'm convinced by this poll. I think the gap's a shade narrower.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Verulamius said:

    Good to see the Thatcher program again tonight.

    You can see how the underlying themes of today politics have developed.

    The various strands of then conservative thinking are clearly displayed, including the hatred for Thatcher. I wonder whether this program had an impact on conservative poling at the time it was originally shown in 1993?

    Tonight was the first time I saw this program. The distain, fear and hatred for Thatcher from the Tory bigwigs was so palpable one could seem to smell it coming through the screen.
    It's one of the reasons for the increasing loss of membership for that party, why it will never win a GE again in it's present form and why more and more people are, finally, turning to UKIP.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,061
    Mr. K, the documentary's 20 years old. How many of the aforementioned bigwigs are still playing a role in politics?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Can anyone on PB throw some light on this impending bill? This is the first time I've heard of it.
    http://services.parliament.uk/bills/2013-14/nationalservice.html
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. K, the documentary's 20 years old. How many of the aforementioned bigwigs are still playing a role in politics?

    True Mr Dancer, but the stench lingers and is entrenched in the Tory party, alas.

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    First the CIA acknowledges Area 51, now we've got new claims Diana was murdered.

    Has anyone heard from Tapestry recently? I fear for his well-being. He may have spontaneously combusted.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Has the Telegraph morphed into the Express??

    A Diana story on page 1????
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    richardDodd said:

    Labour have at last found the magic bullet that will lead to election victory ... Keep Ed off the air, no speeches..no public appearances..no policy statements..Looking good for the Reds ..
    Now what was the leaders name again?..

    David something?
    No, it is Len isn't it???

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,423
    To be fair to The Express, Scotland Yard investigating the possibility the Princess Diana was murdered by the SAS probably IS headline news!

    Doesn't make up for all the other 1,000 pointless Diana Headlines The Express has run in the past 16 years, though.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited August 2013
    The ComRes poll reports that those who agree that Ed M is 'turning out to be a good leader' has dropped 11 points since May, and those who disagree has risen 8 points, with the 'Don't knows' hardly changed.

    Meanwhile the Cameron figures have changed by just a net 2 points.

    Unless Mike has been looking at a very different set of media from those I've been following, I'm struggling to see how this 'doesn't fit the media narrative'.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Diana's story is grist to the mill for conspiracy theorists liek the JFK murder. I do believe she sadly died in a car crash because probably a driver driving well over the limit was driving too fast to lose chasing papparazzi.

    One incident that has never been cleared up was the one when she herself said from Dodi's yacht to newsmen below that she was going to make a significant announcement in two weeks time. This was reported in newspapers. She died in less than two weeks.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    This weekend, a YouGov poll for The Sunday Times finds that Labour, on 38%, has a six-point lead over the Tories, well below the 10 point or more lead it had earlier this year. Miliband’s rating remains poor, with 65% saying he is doing badly — his worst figure since April 2012.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    From the Sunday Times

    LABOUR is to go into the next election with a pledge to give the right to vote to 16- and 17-year-olds.

    The reform, drawn up by one of Ed Miliband’s key lieutenants, Sadiq Khan, would be introduced in time for the 2020 election if Labour is returned to power in 2015.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    From the Sunday Times

    LABOUR is to go into the next election with a pledge to give the right to vote to 16- and 17-year-olds.

    The reform, drawn up by one of Ed Miliband’s key lieutenants, Sadiq Khan, would be introduced in time for the 2020 election if Labour is returned to power in 2015.

    A great opportunity for Cammo to outflank him by pledging to give votes to 5-year olds.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,423
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    From the Sunday Times

    LABOUR is to go into the next election with a pledge to give the right to vote to 16- and 17-year-olds.

    The reform, drawn up by one of Ed Miliband’s key lieutenants, Sadiq Khan, would be introduced in time for the 2020 election if Labour is returned to power in 2015.

    I read recently that more young people than ever are tending to favour the Tories?

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Front of the sunday times - labour will drop voting age to 16

    http://politicshome.com/uk/article/83588/the_sunday_times_sunday_18th_august_2013.html
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    However, pollsters warned the change may not help Labour. Peter Kellner, president of YouGov, said young people showed a “sort of unrooted social liberalism” but were not necessarily left wing.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    surbiton said:

    Diana's story is grist to the mill for conspiracy theorists liek the JFK murder. I do believe she sadly died in a car crash because probably a driver driving well over the limit was driving too fast to lose chasing papparazzi.

    One incident that has never been cleared up was the one when she herself said from Dodi's yacht to newsmen below that she was going to make a significant announcement in two weeks time. This was reported in newspapers. She died in less than two weeks.

    This doesn't seem credible. Why would The Queen use the SAS to deal with Diana instead of just dropping her in the palace shark tank?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    Re the Diana story, I have got one question.

    What will this do to house prices?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,423
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Re the Diana story, I have got one question.

    What will this do to house prices?

    One day there will be an Express headlines that covers, Diana, House prices AND the weather.

    SUMMER FLOODS IN ALTHORP KNOCK DOWN HOUSE PRICES WHILE VISITOR NUMBERS TO DIANA'S SHRINE ARE WELL DOWN

    #ExpressHeaven

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Re the Diana story, I have got one question.

    What will this do to house prices?

    One day there will be an Express headlines that covers, Diana, House prices AND the weather.

    SUMMER FLOODS IN ALTHORP KNOCK DOWN HOUSE PRICES WHILE VISITOR NUMBERS TO DIANA'S SHRINE ARE WELL DOWN

    #ExpressHeaven

    There has to be an EU angle to this?

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,423
    edited August 2013
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Re the Diana story, I have got one question.

    What will this do to house prices?

    One day there will be an Express headlines that covers, Diana, House prices AND the weather.

    SUMMER FLOODS IN ALTHORP KNOCK DOWN HOUSE PRICES WHILE VISITOR NUMBERS TO DIANA'S SHRINE ARE WELL DOWN

    #ExpressHeaven

    There has to be an EU angle to this?

    SUMMER FLOODS IN ALTHORP KNOCK DOWN HOUSE PRICES WHILE VISITOR NUMBERS TO DIANA'S SHRINE ARE WELL DOWN - MEANWHILE EU DEMANDS DIANA'S GRAVE BE MADE PARIS TOURIST ATTRACTION TO HELP REVIVE THE FLAGGING ECONOMY OF THE GARLIC EATERS.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edmundintokyo said:

    surbiton said:

    Diana's story is grist to the mill for conspiracy theorists liek the JFK murder. I do believe she sadly died in a car crash because probably a driver driving well over the limit was driving too fast to lose chasing papparazzi.

    One incident that has never been cleared up was the one when she herself said from Dodi's yacht to newsmen below that she was going to make a significant announcement in two weeks time. This was reported in newspapers. She died in less than two weeks.

    This doesn't seem credible. Why would The Queen use the SAS to deal with Diana instead of just dropping her in the palace shark tank?
    Because the Queen's a 'goodie'. She would send Bond to eliminate the traitor.
    Only 'baddies' drop people into shark tanks, silly...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Hmm, rather than "another", the word "a" would be more accurate.

    Populus most recently showed the Conservatives closing the gap to 3%, and both MORI and ICM have had Ed Miliband with appalling leader ratings.

    But nevertheless, it is a useful corrective to received wisdom.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edmundintokyo said:

    surbiton said:

    Diana's story is grist to the mill for conspiracy theorists liek the JFK murder. I do believe she sadly died in a car crash because probably a driver driving well over the limit was driving too fast to lose chasing papparazzi.

    One incident that has never been cleared up was the one when she herself said from Dodi's yacht to newsmen below that she was going to make a significant announcement in two weeks time. This was reported in newspapers. She died in less than two weeks.

    This doesn't seem credible. Why would The Queen use the SAS to deal with Diana instead of just dropping her in the palace shark tank?
    Who is suggesting that ? She died sadly in a car crash perhaps as a result of negligence of one kind or another.

    My point was about her remarks to reporters from the yacht. I have always wondered what she was going to announce. I do not think that and her death was in any way connected.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    surbiton said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    surbiton said:

    Diana's story is grist to the mill for conspiracy theorists liek the JFK murder. I do believe she sadly died in a car crash because probably a driver driving well over the limit was driving too fast to lose chasing papparazzi.

    One incident that has never been cleared up was the one when she herself said from Dodi's yacht to newsmen below that she was going to make a significant announcement in two weeks time. This was reported in newspapers. She died in less than two weeks.

    This doesn't seem credible. Why would The Queen use the SAS to deal with Diana instead of just dropping her in the palace shark tank?
    Who is suggesting that ? She died sadly in a car crash perhaps as a result of negligence of one kind or another.

    My point was about her remarks to reporters from the yacht. I have always wondered what she was going to announce. I do not think that and her death was in any way connected.
    She was going to announce that the Royal Family are really Lizard people...
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    edited August 2013
    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    From the Sunday Times

    LABOUR is to go into the next election with a pledge to give the right to vote to 16- and 17-year-olds.

    The reform, drawn up by one of Ed Miliband’s key lieutenants, Sadiq Khan, would be introduced in time for the 2020 election if Labour is returned to power in 2015.

    I read recently that more young people than ever are tending to favour the Tories?

    MORI has the 2010 vote among 18-24 as Con 30 Lab 31 LD 30, so that's substantially worse for Con and better for LD than overall (Con 37 Lab 30 LD 24). But turnout is only 44%, compared to 65% overall. I'd imagine turnout would be particularly low in the 16-18 range, so a modest Lab advantage like that won't really make a dent in the overall vote shares.

    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=2613

    IMHO low turnout is an argument _for_ lowering the minimum age: People don't vote until they're old enough to pay attention, so as long as they're old enough to make decisions independently from their parents (no problem there with 16-year-olds) you don't need an artificial restriction to prevent people who aren't ready to vote from voting.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited August 2013
    MikeK said:

    Can anyone on PB throw some light on this impending bill? This is the first time I've heard of it.
    http://services.parliament.uk/bills/2013-14/nationalservice.html

    It seems to be part of the "Alternative Queen's Speech".

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10133076/Conservative-MPs-launch-attempt-to-bring-back-death-penalty-privatise-the-BBC-and-ban-burka.html

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2013/06/the-alternative-queens-speech-the-full-list-of-40-rebel-bills.html

    Although Mr Cameron did once push some sort of Duke of Edinburgh Award version of national service.

    http://www.conservatives.com/News/News_stories/2010/04/Conservatives_launch_plans_for_a_National_Citizen_Service.aspx


  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    edited August 2013
    surbiton said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    surbiton said:

    Diana's story is grist to the mill for conspiracy theorists liek the JFK murder. I do believe she sadly died in a car crash because probably a driver driving well over the limit was driving too fast to lose chasing papparazzi.

    One incident that has never been cleared up was the one when she herself said from Dodi's yacht to newsmen below that she was going to make a significant announcement in two weeks time. This was reported in newspapers. She died in less than two weeks.

    This doesn't seem credible. Why would The Queen use the SAS to deal with Diana instead of just dropping her in the palace shark tank?
    Who is suggesting that ? She died sadly in a car crash perhaps as a result of negligence of one kind or another.

    My point was about her remarks to reporters from the yacht. I have always wondered what she was going to announce. I do not think that and her death was in any way connected.
    Sorry, my post should have been a reply to whoever posted the original story.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,423
    surbiton said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    surbiton said:

    Diana's story is grist to the mill for conspiracy theorists liek the JFK murder. I do believe she sadly died in a car crash because probably a driver driving well over the limit was driving too fast to lose chasing papparazzi.

    One incident that has never been cleared up was the one when she herself said from Dodi's yacht to newsmen below that she was going to make a significant announcement in two weeks time. This was reported in newspapers. She died in less than two weeks.

    This doesn't seem credible. Why would The Queen use the SAS to deal with Diana instead of just dropping her in the palace shark tank?
    Who is suggesting that ? She died sadly in a car crash perhaps as a result of negligence of one kind or another.

    My point was about her remarks to reporters from the yacht. I have always wondered what she was going to announce. I do not think that and her death was in any way connected.
    I assumed it was just another game she was playing with the media/Royal family.

    She played the game like no one before or since has ever done (even Campbell and Blair were amateurs at media manipulation next to Diana)

    Of course it was her un-doing in the end, by my god did she know how get attention...

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    edited August 2013
    MikeK said:

    Can anyone on PB throw some light on this impending bill? This is the first time I've heard of it.
    http://services.parliament.uk/bills/2013-14/nationalservice.html

    It's a Private Member's Bill (i.e. won't happen) by Phillip Hollobone. He's not published the text yet but it seems to be part of the right-wing package that some MPs suggested a while back:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1292279/Rebel-Tory-MPs-table-Bills-including-EU-exit-national-service.html

    At present, he doesn't seem to have given the Bill any text or referred to it on a website, so I am not sure his heart is in it. But perhaps it's all yet to come. The 2nd Reading is down for September 6, though I don't know if it will be reached.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,090
    UKIP and ComRes seem to be getting on nicely...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,423
    edited August 2013
    edmundintokyo said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    From the Sunday Times

    LABOUR is to go into the next election with a pledge to give the right to vote to 16- and 17-year-olds.

    The reform, drawn up by one of Ed Miliband’s key lieutenants, Sadiq Khan, would be introduced in time for the 2020 election if Labour is returned to power in 2015.

    I read recently that more young people than ever are tending to favour the Tories?

    MORI has the 2010 vote among 18-24 as Con 30 Lab 31 LD 30, so that's substantially worse for Con and better for LD than overall (Con 37 Lab 30 LD 24). But turnout is only 44%, compared to 65% overall. I'd imagine turnout would be particularly low in the 16-18 range, so a modest Lab advantage like that won't really make a dent in the overall vote shares.

    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=2613

    IMHO low turnout is an argument _for_ lowering the minimum age: People don't vote until they're old enough to pay attention, so as long as they're old enough to make decisions independently from their parents (no problem there with 16-year-olds) you don't need an artificial restriction to prevent people who aren't ready to vote from voting.
    I've always thought 16 is a fair age to vote to be honest.

    If your old enough to be sent to war and be killed your old enough to vote for the people who send you to war....

This discussion has been closed.