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SystemSystem Posts: 12,685
edited July 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest by-election results and summary for July

July 27th Local By-Election Summary Fallowfield on Manchester (Lab defence) Result: Labour 861 (77% +15% on last time), Green Party 105 (9% -13% on last time), Liberal Democrat 82 (7% +3% on last time), Conservative 72 (6% -4% on last time) Labour HOLD with a majority of 756 (68%) on a swing of 14% from Green to Labour

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Comments

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,092
    edited July 2017
    Thirst.

    Thanks, Harry.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Disjointed, chaotic, divided, sleazy Tories on the slide !
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    surbiton said:

    Disjointed, chaotic, divided, sleazy Tories on the slide !


    This is the Diane Abbott statistical analysis where increased vote share means 'on the slide'.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,386
    Knife attack in Germany - one dead:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40757119
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    Cheers for this, Mr. Hayfield.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    So as the storms of BREXIT and REMANIA vs LEAVISTAN rage on PB.com......in the real world.....nothing much has changed.....
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    felix said:

    surbiton said:

    Disjointed, chaotic, divided, sleazy Tories on the slide !


    This is the Diane Abbott statistical analysis where increased vote share means 'on the slide'.
    It is the swing that decides elections. Labour leads the Tories by almost 5% - just like the polls.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,703
    edited July 2017
    Worst month for LD’s for some time.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    New North Korean missile test:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40757780
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    felix said:

    surbiton said:

    Disjointed, chaotic, divided, sleazy Tories on the slide !


    This is the Diane Abbott statistical analysis where increased vote share means 'on the slide'.
    Closely allied to the Diane Abbott Psephological College, specialist subject "Is Jeremy a Remainer?"
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    surbiton said:

    felix said:

    surbiton said:

    Disjointed, chaotic, divided, sleazy Tories on the slide !


    This is the Diane Abbott statistical analysis where increased vote share means 'on the slide'.
    Labour leads the Tories by almost 5%
    Against a government this Disjointed, chaotic, divided, sleazy that's the best Labour can do?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,979
    Morris_Dancer said:

    New North Korean missile test:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40757780

    It really is only a matter of time before there is a war I am sad to say.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    Mr. Borough, perhaps. I wonder if China would instigate it.

    They wouldn't want US allies to have a direct border with China. An occupation and puppet regime that isn't crazy would suit them.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,092
    Morris_Dancer said:

    New North Korean missile test:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40757780

    They're getting quite an impressive number of tests done, which is a bad sign.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    rottenborough said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    New North Korean missile test:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40757780

    It really is only a matter of time before there is a war I am sad to say.
    There are several fault lines in that part of the world that could lead to war.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    Mr. Jessop, that's a good (and also bad) point.

    Mr. F, or, indeed, have (Yemen's not in great shape. Some tragic reports from ITV News there recently. Over a third of a million have cholera).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On Mr Scaramucci, I wonder just how desperate the White House would have to be to distract attention from something else by taking this course of action?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited July 2017
    It's oddly amusing watching the right lose control of brexit;

    "UK passengers on our clapped out privatised railway, are paying more and more to help keep fares down on other European railways."

    http://metro.co.uk/2017/07/28/cost-of-commuting-is-about-to-rocket-as-european-rail-owners-rob-passengers-6812282/#mv-b

    Reap, reap, reap, you're gonna reap just whaaat you sow.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    Pong said:

    It's oddly amusing watching the right lose control of brexit;

    http://metro.co.uk/2017/07/28/cost-of-commuting-is-about-to-rocket-as-european-rail-owners-rob-passengers-6812282/#mv-b

    Reap, reap, reap, you're gonna reap just whaaat you sow.

    Daft

    the blackmail is due to EU law letting state owned companies takeover UK rail franchises

    it has bugger all to do with brexit and everything to do with the open EU market
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Alanbrooke said:

    Pong said:

    It's oddly amusing watching the right lose control of brexit;

    http://metro.co.uk/2017/07/28/cost-of-commuting-is-about-to-rocket-as-european-rail-owners-rob-passengers-6812282/#mv-b

    Reap, reap, reap, you're gonna reap just whaaat you sow.

    Daft

    the blackmail is due to EU law letting state owned companies takeover UK rail franchises

    it has bugger all to do with brexit and everything to do with the open EU market
    "The Rail, Maritime and Transport union published a prediction"
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    FPT....
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: just seen the P2 results and am perplexed by Vettel being 2nd (to Ricciardo), yet his odds lengthening to 6.2. Hamilton was fifth, behind them and the two Finns, but remains scarcely above evens.

    It's only practice, but if it's moving the markets, doesn't that look a little peculiar?

    My early tip on Vettel (bouncing around odds of 4 to 5.2) was based on power mattering less in Hungary, and that tallies with Red Bull doing well (though Verstappen needs to find his feet), and McLaren likewise.

    So... why's Hamilton still seen as rock solid favourite? Surely it should be tighter? Or am I mad as a mongoose?

    The reason why Hamilton was down in fifth place is that, because of untimely red flags, he was unable to complete a fast lap on the supersofts. All those above him set their times on supersofts.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    Pong said:

    It's oddly amusing watching the right lose control of brexit;

    "UK passengers on our clapped out privatised railway, are paying more and more to help keep fares down on other European railways."

    http://metro.co.uk/2017/07/28/cost-of-commuting-is-about-to-rocket-as-european-rail-owners-rob-passengers-6812282/#mv-b

    Reap, reap, reap, you're gonna reap just whaaat you sow.

    What do our rail fares have to do with Brexit?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    Mr. G, cheers. I wasn't listening to it. Did he get a clear run in first practice?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    AlastairMeeks said:

    On Mr Scaramucci, I wonder just how desperate the White House would have to be to distract attention from something else by taking this course of action?

    Ignoring the possibility that they really, really, really are that dumb?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    ThreeQuidder said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Pong said:

    It's oddly amusing watching the right lose control of brexit;

    http://metro.co.uk/2017/07/28/cost-of-commuting-is-about-to-rocket-as-european-rail-owners-rob-passengers-6812282/#mv-b

    Reap, reap, reap, you're gonna reap just whaaat you sow.

    Daft

    the blackmail is due to EU law letting state owned companies takeover UK rail franchises

    it has bugger all to do with brexit and everything to do with the open EU market
    "The Rail, Maritime and Transport union published a prediction"
    there's nothing uniquely rail about it, the same situation exists in the utilities

    European companies with UK oligopolies routinely fleece their customers

    its why big corporates love the EU
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    edited July 2017
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. G, cheers. I wasn't listening to it. Did he get a clear run in first practice?

    Yes, he got a clear run in first practice on the softs, finished 3rd behind Ricciardo and Raikkonen. He was initially leading in the 2nd practice on the softs, until others started switching to supersofts.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Scott_P said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    On Mr Scaramucci, I wonder just how desperate the White House would have to be to distract attention from something else by taking this course of action?

    Ignoring the possibility that they really, really, really are that dumb?
    Everything is possible but generally I try to credit people with minimal intelligence. This level of stupidity fails the sniff test.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited July 2017
    Alanbrooke said:

    Pong said:

    It's oddly amusing watching the right lose control of brexit;

    http://metro.co.uk/2017/07/28/cost-of-commuting-is-about-to-rocket-as-european-rail-owners-rob-passengers-6812282/#mv-b

    Reap, reap, reap, you're gonna reap just whaaat you sow.

    Daft

    the blackmail is due to EU law letting state owned companies takeover UK rail franchises

    it has bugger all to do with brexit and everything to do with the open EU market
    In post Brexit Nirvana are we going to ban foreign ownership of UK businesses?

    Have you gone all Corbynite in your dotage?
  • AllanAllan Posts: 262
    Sean_F said:

    rottenborough said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    New North Korean missile test:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40757780

    It really is only a matter of time before there is a war I am sad to say.
    There are several fault lines in that part of the world that could lead to war.

    The worrying part is why China has not stopped these actions by North Korea.
  • AllanAllan Posts: 262
    OldKingCole said:

    Worst month for LD’s for some time.

    But the Lib Dem fightback is underway. Or so they said.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Pong said:

    It's oddly amusing watching the right lose control of brexit;

    http://metro.co.uk/2017/07/28/cost-of-commuting-is-about-to-rocket-as-european-rail-owners-rob-passengers-6812282/#mv-b

    Reap, reap, reap, you're gonna reap just whaaat you sow.

    Daft

    the blackmail is due to EU law letting state owned companies takeover UK rail franchises

    it has bugger all to do with brexit and everything to do with the open EU market
    In post Brexit Nirvana are we going to ban foreign ownership of UK businesses?

    Have you gone all Corbynite in your dotage?
    Pointing out that brexit didnt create the current market structures that let big corporates exert their pricing power isnt an issue of foreign ownership

    its and issue of lack of competition

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Let's take a break from Brexit and point and laugh at the Saffers.

    Look!! 51/6 ha ha ha ha ha ha.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,816
    edited July 2017
    Sean_F said:

    rottenborough said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    New North Korean missile test:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40757780

    It really is only a matter of time before there is a war I am sad to say.
    There are several fault lines in that part of the world that could lead to war.

    At my Admiralty Board interview they asked me what, in my opinion, would be the next flashpoint for a war. I said, at random, the Spratly Islands. That was in 1988. I expect I"ll be right eventually.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,263
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Pong said:

    It's oddly amusing watching the right lose control of brexit;

    http://metro.co.uk/2017/07/28/cost-of-commuting-is-about-to-rocket-as-european-rail-owners-rob-passengers-6812282/#mv-b

    Reap, reap, reap, you're gonna reap just whaaat you sow.

    Daft

    the blackmail is due to EU law letting state owned companies takeover UK rail franchises

    it has bugger all to do with brexit and everything to do with the open EU market
    In post Brexit Nirvana are we going to ban foreign ownership of UK businesses?

    Have you gone all Corbynite in your dotage?
    That seems more like Macron's latest idea:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/27/france-nationalises-strategic-shipyard-emmanuel-macron

    He obviously has something against Italian ownership of French business.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Pong said:

    It's oddly amusing watching the right lose control of brexit;

    "UK passengers on our clapped out privatised railway, are paying more and more to help keep fares down on other European railways."

    http://metro.co.uk/2017/07/28/cost-of-commuting-is-about-to-rocket-as-european-rail-owners-rob-passengers-6812282/#mv-b

    Reap, reap, reap, you're gonna reap just whaaat you sow.

    What the article says is that fares will rise next year by the August RPI figure. This always happens, and happens independently of whether the owner is British, European or based on one of the Galilean moons of Jupiter. The rest is borderline-racist topspin.Your comment is therefore spot on except for the "right", "lose control of" and "brexit" bits, and the ironic amusement fail.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    Mr. Allan, entirely possible that China can't stop them.

    Hasn't Kim Jong-un gotten rid of most of the (relative) doves with Chinese ties?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    F1: again, might be wrong, but Ladbrokes has No Safety Car at 1.83. I'm not putting any more down, but if you haven't bet yet, that just looks too long to me.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    rottenborough said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    New North Korean missile test:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40757780

    It really is only a matter of time before there is a war I am sad to say.
    There are several fault lines in that part of the world that could lead to war.

    At my Admiralty Board interview they asked me what, in my opinion, would be the next flashpoint for a war. I said, at random, the Spratly Islands. That was in 1988. I expect I"ll be right eventually.
    Taiwan is another possibility.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited July 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Pong said:

    It's oddly amusing watching the right lose control of brexit;

    "UK passengers on our clapped out privatised railway, are paying more and more to help keep fares down on other European railways."

    http://metro.co.uk/2017/07/28/cost-of-commuting-is-about-to-rocket-as-european-rail-owners-rob-passengers-6812282/#mv-b

    Reap, reap, reap, you're gonna reap just whaaat you sow.

    What the article says is that fares will rise next year by the August RPI figure. This always happens, and happens independently of whether the owner is British, European or based on one of the Galilean moons of Jupiter. The rest is borderline-racist topspin.Your comment is therefore spot on except for the "right", "lose control of" and "brexit" bits, and the ironic amusement fail.
    Yep. It is just good old tabloid xenophobia, it has a long and glorious history completely unrelated to Brexit.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    rottenborough said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    New North Korean missile test:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40757780

    It really is only a matter of time before there is a war I am sad to say.
    There are several fault lines in that part of the world that could lead to war.

    At my Admiralty Board interview they asked me what, in my opinion, would be the next flashpoint for a war. I said, at random, the Spratly Islands. That was in 1988. I expect I"ll be right eventually.
    Taiwan is another possibility.
    I'm not sure the Americans would be able to do anything before it was all over.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,436
    Alanbrooke said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Pong said:

    It's oddly amusing watching the right lose control of brexit;

    http://metro.co.uk/2017/07/28/cost-of-commuting-is-about-to-rocket-as-european-rail-owners-rob-passengers-6812282/#mv-b

    Reap, reap, reap, you're gonna reap just whaaat you sow.

    Daft

    the blackmail is due to EU law letting state owned companies takeover UK rail franchises

    it has bugger all to do with brexit and everything to do with the open EU market
    "The Rail, Maritime and Transport union published a prediction"
    there's nothing uniquely rail about it, the same situation exists in the utilities

    European companies with UK oligopolies routinely fleece their customers

    its why big corporates love the EU
    Are service and price noticeably worse on franchise operated by state owned entities? Presumably they won bids over private sector players, so the UK taxpayer has benefited.

    More importantly, would you ban - say - Deutsche Bahn from running a UK rail line post Brexit?

    Or, to put it another way, what has any of this got to do with Brexit in the first place?
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    AlastairMeeks said:

    On Mr Scaramucci, I wonder just how desperate the White House would have to be to distract attention from something else by taking this course of action?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NoemQ3uz890
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited July 2017
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Scott_P said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    On Mr Scaramucci, I wonder just how desperate the White House would have to be to distract attention from something else by taking this course of action?

    Ignoring the possibility that they really, really, really are that dumb?
    Everything is possible but generally I try to credit people with minimal intelligence. This level of stupidity fails the sniff test.
    I wonder if there is some value either in a 2018 departure at 4.4 last I looked, or at least the evens on not lasting the fullterm.

    He really is demonstrating what a carcrash populism is. Populism is destru tive but is particularly prone to self destruction when it reaches the point of contact with reality.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Pong said:

    It's oddly amusing watching the right lose control of brexit;

    "UK passengers on our clapped out privatised railway, are paying more and more to help keep fares down on other European railways."

    http://metro.co.uk/2017/07/28/cost-of-commuting-is-about-to-rocket-as-european-rail-owners-rob-passengers-6812282/#mv-b

    Reap, reap, reap, you're gonna reap just whaaat you sow.

    What the article says is that fares will rise next year by the August RPI figure. This always happens, and happens independently of whether the owner is British, European or based on one of the Galilean moons of Jupiter. The rest is borderline-racist topspin.Your comment is therefore spot on except for the "right", "lose control of" and "brexit" bits, and the ironic amusement fail.
    Yep. It is just good old tabloid xenophobia, it has a long and glorious history completely unrelated to Brexit.
    I genuinely cannot tell whether that is ironically intended, but it seems to me to be literally true, except for "good old" and "glorious".
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    rottenborough said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    New North Korean missile test:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40757780

    It really is only a matter of time before there is a war I am sad to say.
    There are several fault lines in that part of the world that could lead to war.

    At my Admiralty Board interview they asked me what, in my opinion, would be the next flashpoint for a war. I said, at random, the Spratly Islands. That was in 1988. I expect I"ll be right eventually.
    Taiwan is another possibility.
    I think Taiwan is the 21st Century Danzig corridor.

    China is too strong for the Americans to stop now.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    Mr. Royale, the Danzig corridor?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Royale, the Danzig corridor?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_Corridor
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    Mr. Royale, ah, cheers.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    rottenborough said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    New North Korean missile test:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40757780

    It really is only a matter of time before there is a war I am sad to say.
    There are several fault lines in that part of the world that could lead to war.

    At my Admiralty Board interview they asked me what, in my opinion, would be the next flashpoint for a war. I said, at random, the Spratly Islands. That was in 1988. I expect I"ll be right eventually.
    As it was the "next" flashpoint for war back in 1988 you are already permanently wrong, though.

    The correct and only winning answer, depending on when in 1988 your Board was would have been the Nagorno-Karabakh War or the Mauritania–Senegal Border War.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Royale, the Danzig corridor?

    Don't ask. It's centuries too late for you.

    It's so recent it doesn't actually class as "history".
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    Mr. M, my slightly longer original reply (which had a hint as to my next, historical, blog) did include the phrase 'so recent it's practically current events'.

    But I do read modern history. I've read a couple of chapters on King John already today.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Fundraising email from ReadyForMogg.org all excited because "The odds of Jacob Rees-Mogg becoming the next Conservative Party leader have been slashed from 66/1 to 9/1." I was thinking that this measure of progress looks amateurish, but thinking about it what else can they do? Commission some polling and publish or not depending how it looks, I suppose.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Fundraising email from ReadyForMogg.org all excited because "The odds of Jacob Rees-Mogg becoming the next Conservative Party leader have been slashed from 66/1 to 9/1." I was thinking that this measure of progress looks amateurish, but thinking about it what else can they do? Commission some polling and publish or not depending how it looks, I suppose.

    Dear Geoffrey,

    The odds of Jacob Rees-Mogg becoming the next Conservative Party leader have been slashed from 66/1 to 9/1. We are on a path to victory, and that’s thanks to you.

    You are the Moggmentum for this campaign. When you share something on Facebook, tell a friend, or make a donation you are moving our campaign forward.

    Our next step is to recruit volunteers and begin to organise a ground campaign.

    People are already signing up, will you join them?

    DONATE ON OUR CROWDPAC PAGE

    We really appreciate your support. We won’t regularly pester you for donations, but we need your help right now to build on this great start.

    Will you step up and help us reach our goal by donating today?

    DONATE ON OUR CROWDPAC PAGE

    With your continued support, WE’LL be ready… when HE is ready.

    Sincerely,

    Sam Frost,
    Founder, Ready for Rees-Mogg
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    F1: Hulkenberg's seemingly getting a 5 place grid penalty for a gearbox change.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    rottenborough said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    New North Korean missile test:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40757780

    It really is only a matter of time before there is a war I am sad to say.
    There are several fault lines in that part of the world that could lead to war.

    At my Admiralty Board interview they asked me what, in my opinion, would be the next flashpoint for a war. I said, at random, the Spratly Islands. That was in 1988. I expect I"ll be right eventually.
    Taiwan is another possibility.
    I think Taiwan is the 21st Century Danzig corridor.

    China is too strong for the Americans to stop now.
    How? I don't see the Americans judging it worth starting an armed conflict with China over.

    The US need to accept that China will be the hegemonic military power in the South China Sea and the Western Pacific. They could only contest it at a cost unacceptable to the American public.

    They should learn from Britain's example in the Western Hemisphere in the late 19th century.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,320
    Have been away for the last few days. I presume it's been thrashed out and solved on here how we will both end freedom of movement in March 2019 and also have a transitional deal ending no later than 2022.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    RoyalBlue said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    rottenborough said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    New North Korean missile test:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40757780

    It really is only a matter of time before there is a war I am sad to say.
    There are several fault lines in that part of the world that could lead to war.

    At my Admiralty Board interview they asked me what, in my opinion, would be the next flashpoint for a war. I said, at random, the Spratly Islands. That was in 1988. I expect I"ll be right eventually.
    Taiwan is another possibility.
    I think Taiwan is the 21st Century Danzig corridor.

    China is too strong for the Americans to stop now.
    How? I don't see the Americans judging it worth starting an armed conflict with China over.

    The US need to accept that China will be the hegemonic military power in the South China Sea and the Western Pacific. They could only contest it at a cost unacceptable to the American public.

    They should learn from Britain's example in the Western Hemisphere in the late 19th century.
    The USA will certainly fight, if Taiwan is attacked. Taiwan would be no pushover, militarily, in any case.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited July 2017
    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    rottenborough said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    New North Korean missile test:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40757780

    It really is only a matter of time before there is a war I am sad to say.
    There are several fault lines in that part of the world that could lead to war.

    At my Admiralty Board interview they asked me what, in my opinion, would be the next flashpoint for a war. I said, at random, the Spratly Islands. That was in 1988. I expect I"ll be right eventually.
    Taiwan is another possibility.
    I think Taiwan is the 21st Century Danzig corridor.

    China is too strong for the Americans to stop now.
    How? I don't see the Americans judging it worth starting an armed conflict with China over.

    The US need to accept that China will be the hegemonic military power in the South China Sea and the Western Pacific. They could only contest it at a cost unacceptable to the American public.

    They should learn from Britain's example in the Western Hemisphere in the late 19th century.
    The USA will certainly fight, if Taiwan is attacked. Taiwan would be no pushover, militarily, in any case.
    I'm sure the Taiwanese are excellent man for man but scale does count in the end. The Chinese must outnumber them 20 to 1 on any type of equipment or personnel.

    I don't thing the US would be able to intervene in time to affect the outcome. I also don't think the Taiwanese would fancy an endless futile guerilla war against the PRC.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,603
    SandyRentool said:

    Knife attack in Germany - one dead:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40757119

    We haven't had a mentally disturbed man doing this for a while in Germany. The quotes form the police reporting on the incident are just weird.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    RoyalBlue said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    rottenborough said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    New North Korean missile test:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40757780

    It really is only a matter of time before there is a war I am sad to say.
    There are several fault lines in that part of the world that could lead to war.

    At my Admiralty Board interview they asked me what, in my opinion, would be the next flashpoint for a war. I said, at random, the Spratly Islands. That was in 1988. I expect I"ll be right eventually.
    Taiwan is another possibility.
    I think Taiwan is the 21st Century Danzig corridor.

    China is too strong for the Americans to stop now.
    How? I don't see the Americans judging it worth starting an armed conflict with China over.

    The US need to accept that China will be the hegemonic military power in the South China Sea and the Western Pacific. They could only contest it at a cost unacceptable to the American public.

    They should learn from Britain's example in the Western Hemisphere in the late 19th century.
    The USA will certainly fight, if Taiwan is attacked. Taiwan would be no pushover, militarily, in any case.
    I'm sure the Taiwanese are excellent man for man but scale does count in the end. The Chinese must outnumber them 20 to 1 on any type of equipment or personnel.

    I don't thing the US would be able to intervene in time to affect the outcome. I also don't think the Taiwanese would fancy an endless futile guerilla war against the PRC.
    Taiwan has 300,000 men under arms, and 3m reserves. They are very well-equipped. 100 miles of water separate them from China. A seaborne assault in the face of those forces, supported by US carrier groups, would be an almost certain disaster.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    rottenborough said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    New North Korean missile test:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40757780

    It really is only a matter of time before there is a war I am sad to say.
    There are several fault lines in that part of the world that could lead to war.

    At my Admiralty Board interview they asked me what, in my opinion, would be the next flashpoint for a war. I said, at random, the Spratly Islands. That was in 1988. I expect I"ll be right eventually.
    Taiwan is another possibility.
    I think Taiwan is the 21st Century Danzig corridor.

    China is too strong for the Americans to stop now.
    How? I don't see the Americans judging it worth starting an armed conflict with China over.

    The US need to accept that China will be the hegemonic military power in the South China Sea and the Western Pacific. They could only contest it at a cost unacceptable to the American public.

    They should learn from Britain's example in the Western Hemisphere in the late 19th century.
    The USA will certainly fight, if Taiwan is attacked. Taiwan would be no pushover, militarily, in any case.
    I'm not so sure. It could be like France 1940.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,263
    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    rottenborough said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    New North Korean missile test:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40757780

    It really is only a matter of time before there is a war I am sad to say.
    There are several fault lines in that part of the world that could lead to war.

    At my Admiralty Board interview they asked me what, in my opinion, would be the next flashpoint for a war. I said, at random, the Spratly Islands. That was in 1988. I expect I"ll be right eventually.
    Taiwan is another possibility.
    I think Taiwan is the 21st Century Danzig corridor.

    China is too strong for the Americans to stop now.
    How? I don't see the Americans judging it worth starting an armed conflict with China over.

    The US need to accept that China will be the hegemonic military power in the South China Sea and the Western Pacific. They could only contest it at a cost unacceptable to the American public.

    They should learn from Britain's example in the Western Hemisphere in the late 19th century.
    The USA will certainly fight, if Taiwan is attacked. Taiwan would be no pushover, militarily, in any case.
    I'm not so sure. It could be like France 1940.
    Or it could be like Greece 1940.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    rottenborough said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    New North Korean missile test:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40757780

    It really is only a matter of time before there is a war I am sad to say.
    There are several fault lines in that part of the world that could lead to war.

    At my Admiralty Board interview they asked me what, in my opinion, would be the next flashpoint for a war. I said, at random, the Spratly Islands. That was in 1988. I expect I"ll be right eventually.
    Taiwan is another possibility.
    I think Taiwan is the 21st Century Danzig corridor.

    China is too strong for the Americans to stop now.
    How? I don't see the Americans judging it worth starting an armed conflict with China over.

    The US need to accept that China will be the hegemonic military power in the South China Sea and the Western Pacific. They could only contest it at a cost unacceptable to the American public.

    They should learn from Britain's example in the Western Hemisphere in the late 19th century.
    The USA will certainly fight, if Taiwan is attacked. Taiwan would be no pushover, militarily, in any case.
    I'm sure the Taiwanese are excellent man for man but scale does count in the end. The Chinese must outnumber them 20 to 1 on any type of equipment or personnel.

    I don't thing the US would be able to intervene in time to affect the outcome. I also don't think the Taiwanese would fancy an endless futile guerilla war against the PRC.
    Taiwan has 300,000 men under arms, and 3m reserves. They are very well-equipped. 100 miles of water separate them from China. A seaborne assault in the face of those forces, supported by US carrier groups, would be an almost certain disaster.
    The Chinese have spent billions developing weapons specifically to destroy the US aircraft carriers. In any case, they won't give the Americans time to actually reach the battlefield. A not insignificant minority of the Taiwanese actually favour reunification, and I just don't see there being the will for a drawn-out conflict when PRC troops have landed.

    On a related topic, I think the plan to sail HMS Queen Elizabeth through the disputed South China Sea waters is idiotic. How is it remotely in our national interest to provoke Beijing?
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    RoyalBlue said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    rottenborough said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    New North Korean missile test:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40757780

    It really is only a matter of time before there is a war I am sad to say.
    There are several fault lines in that part of the world that could lead to war.

    At my Admiralty Board interview they asked me what, in my opinion, would be the next flashpoint for a war. I said, at random, the Spratly Islands. That was in 1988. I expect I"ll be right eventually.
    Taiwan is another possibility.
    I think Taiwan is the 21st Century Danzig corridor.

    China is too strong for the Americans to stop now.
    How? I don't see the Americans judging it worth starting an armed conflict with China over.

    The US need to accept that China will be the hegemonic military power in the South China Sea and the Western Pacific. They could only contest it at a cost unacceptable to the American public.

    They should learn from Britain's example in the Western Hemisphere in the late 19th century.
    The USA will certainly fight, if Taiwan is attacked. Taiwan would be no pushover, militarily, in any case.
    I'm sure the Taiwanese are excellent man for man but scale does count in the end. The Chinese must outnumber them 20 to 1 on any type of equipment or personnel.

    I don't thing the US would be able to intervene in time to affect the outcome. I also don't think the Taiwanese would fancy an endless futile guerilla war against the PRC.
    Taiwan has 300,000 men under arms, and 3m reserves. They are very well-equipped. 100 miles of water separate them from China. A seaborne assault in the face of those forces, supported by US carrier groups, would be an almost certain disaster.
    The Chinese have spent billions developing weapons specifically to destroy the US aircraft carriers. In any case, they won't give the Americans time to actually reach the battlefield. A not insignificant minority of the Taiwanese actually favour reunification, and I just don't see there being the will for a drawn-out conflict when PRC troops have landed.

    On a related topic, I think the plan to sail HMS Queen Elizabeth through the disputed South China Sea waters is idiotic. How is it remotely in our national interest to provoke Beijing?
    Define "not insignificant minority"

    9.2% it says 'ere

    http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2015/01/26/2003610092
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    RoyalBlue said:



    The Chinese have spent billions developing weapons specifically to destroy the US aircraft carriers. In any case, they won't give the Americans time to actually reach the battlefield. A not insignificant minority of the Taiwanese actually favour reunification, and I just don't see there being the will for a drawn-out conflict when PRC troops have landed.

    On a related topic, I think the plan to sail HMS Queen Elizabeth through the disputed South China Sea waters is idiotic. How is it remotely in our national interest to provoke Beijing?

    US spend 588 bn, China 162 bn it says here. http://www.globalfirepower.com/defense-spending-budget.asp

    Presumably some of the US dollars are in anti-anti-aircraft carrier assets.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Ishmael_Z said:

    RoyalBlue said:



    The Chinese have spent billions developing weapons specifically to destroy the US aircraft carriers. In any case, they won't give the Americans time to actually reach the battlefield. A not insignificant minority of the Taiwanese actually favour reunification, and I just don't see there being the will for a drawn-out conflict when PRC troops have landed.

    On a related topic, I think the plan to sail HMS Queen Elizabeth through the disputed South China Sea waters is idiotic. How is it remotely in our national interest to provoke Beijing?

    US spend 588 bn, China 162 bn it says here. http://www.globalfirepower.com/defense-spending-budget.asp

    Presumably some of the US dollars are in anti-anti-aircraft carrier assets.
    That 162bn goes a lot further in China. They will also be more willing to suffer casualties than the Americans.

    If I were the Politburo, I would order it as a complete surprise. If they have a taste for historical anniversaries, they can't do much better than 2019, 70 years after the declaration of the PRC. It will also underline the USA's decline in the penultimate year of Trump's presidency.

    Hopefully I'm totally and utterly wrong!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,603
    It appears the German "robber" is from the UAE.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    Great Ormond Street

    total bastarrds
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    The Chinese have two strategic goals. One is to push the Americans out of the Yellow, East and South China seas, ie beyond Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines and Indonesia. That's the main reason why they tolerate North Korea.The other objective is to ensure it can never be blockaded at the Malacca Straight, so they are investing in land trade routes, particularly of energy through Russia and Burma.

    The Chinese leadership is very frustrated by Taiwan. Not one of them thinks it is anything other than a part of China by right. What the Taiwanese think is irrelevant. Claims to sovereignty through popular will are meaningless as far as they are concerned.But they really don't want to have to take Taiwan by force.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,603
    FFS.....

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2017/jul/28/trojan-horse-affair-remaining-disciplinary-proceedings-dropped-teachers-birmingham-schools
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    RoyalBlue said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    rottenborough said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    New North Korean missile test:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40757780

    It really is only a matter of time before there is a war I am sad to say.
    There are several fault lines in that part of the world that could lead to war.

    At my Admiralty Board interview they asked me what, in my opinion, would be the next flashpoint for a war. I said, at random, the Spratly Islands. That was in 1988. I expect I"ll be right eventually.
    Taiwan is another possibility.
    I think Taiwan is the 21st Century Danzig corridor.

    China is too strong for the Americans to stop now.
    How? I don't see the Americans judging it worth starting an armed conflict with China over.

    The US need to accept that China will be the

    They should learn from Britain's example in the Western Hemisphere in the late 19th century.
    The USA will certainly fight, if Taiwan is attacked. Taiwan would be no pushover, militarily, in any case.
    I'm sure the Taiwanese are excellent man for man but scale does count in the end. The Chinese must outnumber them 20 to 1 on any type of equipment or personnel.

    I don't thing the US would be able to intervene in time to affect the outcome. I also don't think the Taiwanese would fancy an endless futile guerilla war against the PRC.
    Taiwan has 300,000 men under arms, and 3m reserves. They are very well-equipped. 100 miles of water separate them from China. A seaborne assault in the face of those forces, supported by US carrier groups, would be an almost certain disaster.
    The Chinese have spent billions developing weapons specifically to destroy the US aircraft carriers. In any case, they won't give the Americans time to actually reach the battlefield. A not insignificant minority of the Taiwanese actually favour reunification, and I just don't see there being the will for a drawn-out conflict when PRC troops have landed.

    On a related topic, I think the plan to sail HMS Queen Elizabeth through the disputed South China Sea waters is idiotic. How is it remotely in our national interest to provoke Beijing?
    Well, the Chinese would have send about ten times the number of soldiers that the Allies deployed during Operation Overlord, across 100 miles of sea, in the face of massive naval and air attacks.

    How exactly do you do that as a surprise attack?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    RoyalBlue said:

    On a related topic, I think the plan to sail HMS Queen Elizabeth through the disputed South China Sea waters is idiotic. How is it remotely in our national interest to provoke Beijing?

    Think of it more as a performance for their entertainment. Beijing will probably be studying Brexit 2016-2018 in great detail for lessons in how to peacefully bring a rogue offshore island to heel.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,672
    Re Taiwan:
    They have been planning for invasion for 70 years now. As well as the small percentage who favour re-unification, there are a much bigger percentage who consider themselves Taiwanese. They are prepared for a guerrilla war in the cities and in the mountains (the highest peak East of the Himalayas is on Taiwan). They are well-armed and have conscription. Any invasion would be bloody and protracted. Wouldn't fancy a battle in the back alleys of Taipei or in the rainforest. If invasion was easy, it would have happened long ago.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    dixiedean said:

    Re Taiwan:
    They have been planning for invasion for 70 years now. As well as the small percentage who favour re-unification, there are a much bigger percentage who consider themselves Taiwanese. They are prepared for a guerrilla war in the cities and in the mountains (the highest peak East of the Himalayas is on Taiwan). They are well-armed and have conscription. Any invasion would be bloody and protracted. Wouldn't fancy a battle in the back alleys of Taipei or in the rainforest. If invasion was easy, it would have happened long ago.

    An invasion of Taiwan is the stuff of novels. It's not achievable militarily, so long as the Taiwanese have no desire to unite with China.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,341
    williamglenn said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    On a related topic, I think the plan to sail HMS Queen Elizabeth through the disputed South China Sea waters is idiotic. How is it remotely in our national interest to provoke Beijing?

    Think of it more as a performance for their entertainment. Beijing will probably be studying Brexit 2016-2018 in great detail for lessons in how to peacefully bring a rogue offshore island to heel.
    God this is getting tedious.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    http://www.snafu-solomon.com/2017/07/breaking-n-korea-just-launched.html - hit japan?
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Mortimer said:

    williamglenn said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    On a related topic, I think the plan to sail HMS Queen Elizabeth through the disputed South China Sea waters is idiotic. How is it remotely in our national interest to provoke Beijing?

    Think of it more as a performance for their entertainment. Beijing will probably be studying Brexit 2016-2018 in great detail for lessons in how to peacefully bring a rogue offshore island to heel.
    God this is getting tedious.
    This is a revolutionary corruption of the word "getting" that I haven't encountered before.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,341
    edited July 2017
    GeoffM said:

    Mortimer said:

    williamglenn said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    On a related topic, I think the plan to sail HMS Queen Elizabeth through the disputed South China Sea waters is idiotic. How is it remotely in our national interest to provoke Beijing?

    Think of it more as a performance for their entertainment. Beijing will probably be studying Brexit 2016-2018 in great detail for lessons in how to peacefully bring a rogue offshore island to heel.
    God this is getting tedious.
    This is a revolutionary corruption of the word "getting" that I haven't encountered before.
    :)

    We've been hearing lots of Remoaners rescinding invitations because people had the audacity to vote leave. Imagine you're a leaver and you know williamglenn.

    It would be infuriating.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,672
    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    Re Taiwan:
    They have been planning for invasion for 70 years now. As well as the small percentage who favour re-unification, there are a much bigger percentage who consider themselves Taiwanese. They are prepared for a guerrilla war in the cities and in the mountains (the highest peak East of the Himalayas is on Taiwan). They are well-armed and have conscription. Any invasion would be bloody and protracted. Wouldn't fancy a battle in the back alleys of Taipei or in the rainforest. If invasion was easy, it would have happened long ago.

    An invasion of Taiwan is the stuff of novels. It's not achievable militarily, so long as the Taiwanese have no desire to unite with China.
    The only danger is if the PRC leadership believe their own propaganda about the feelings of the Taiwanese. That, or the economy tanking so badly that the regime itself is under threat and needs a massive distraction.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    Re Taiwan:
    They have been planning for invasion for 70 years now. As well as the small percentage who favour re-unification, there are a much bigger percentage who consider themselves Taiwanese. They are prepared for a guerrilla war in the cities and in the mountains (the highest peak East of the Himalayas is on Taiwan). They are well-armed and have conscription. Any invasion would be bloody and protracted. Wouldn't fancy a battle in the back alleys of Taipei or in the rainforest. If invasion was easy, it would have happened long ago.

    An invasion of Taiwan is the stuff of novels. It's not achievable militarily, so long as the Taiwanese have no desire to unite with China.
    The only danger is if the PRC leadership believe their own propaganda about the feelings of the Taiwanese. That, or the economy tanking so badly that the regime itself is under threat and needs a massive distraction.
    The moment the Taiwanese make moves to independence, the Chinese government will attack. Absolutely no doubt.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    FFS.....

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2017/jul/28/trojan-horse-affair-remaining-disciplinary-proceedings-dropped-teachers-birmingham-schools

    In other words, they are innocent in the eyes of British Law...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,672
    edited July 2017
    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    Re Taiwan:
    They have been planning for invasion for 70 years now. As well as the small percentage who favour re-unification, there are a much bigger percentage who consider themselves Taiwanese. They are prepared for a guerrilla war in the cities and in the mountains (the highest peak East of the Himalayas is on Taiwan). They are well-armed and have conscription. Any invasion would be bloody and protracted. Wouldn't fancy a battle in the back alleys of Taipei or in the rainforest. If invasion was easy, it would have happened long ago.

    An invasion of Taiwan is the stuff of novels. It's not achievable militarily, so long as the Taiwanese have no desire to unite with China.
    The only danger is if the PRC leadership believe their own propaganda about the feelings of the Taiwanese. That, or the economy tanking so badly that the regime itself is under threat and needs a massive distraction.
    The moment the Taiwanese make moves to independence, the Chinese government will attack. Absolutely no doubt.
    The Taiwanese understand that well enough. They are, and have been, de facto independent for 70 years, though.

    They are also a dynamic, tolerant open democratic society, who operate under the Rule of Law.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    foxinsoxuk said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    FFS.....

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2017/jul/28/trojan-horse-affair-remaining-disciplinary-proceedings-dropped-teachers-birmingham-schools

    In other words, they are innocent in the eyes of British Law...
    Hardly surprising Operation Trojan Horse mostly failed, given the main evidence was shown to be a forgery.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Alanbrooke said:

    Great Ormond Street

    total bastarrds

    Really?

    https://medium.com/@charlesarthur/charlie-gard-facts-medicine-and-right-wing-fictions-e4b933ed8c12

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    dixiedean said:

    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    Re Taiwan:
    They have been planning for invasion for 70 years now. As well as the small percentage who favour re-unification, there are a much bigger percentage who consider themselves Taiwanese. They are prepared for a guerrilla war in the cities and in the mountains (the highest peak East of the Himalayas is on Taiwan). They are well-armed and have conscription. Any invasion would be bloody and protracted. Wouldn't fancy a battle in the back alleys of Taipei or in the rainforest. If invasion was easy, it would have happened long ago.

    An invasion of Taiwan is the stuff of novels. It's not achievable militarily, so long as the Taiwanese have no desire to unite with China.
    The only danger is if the PRC leadership believe their own propaganda about the feelings of the Taiwanese. That, or the economy tanking so badly that the regime itself is under threat and needs a massive distraction.
    The moment the Taiwanese make moves to independence, the Chinese government will attack. Absolutely no doubt.
    The Taiwanese understand that well enough. They are, and have been, de facto independent for 70 years, though.

    They are also a dynamic, tolerant open democratic society, who operate under the Rule of Law.
    I agree. I like Taiwan.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCBreaking: White House chief of staff Reince Priebus being replaced by General John Kelly, President Trump tweets bbc.in/2vf85ZB

    Good result for Skaramoosh

    Oh, wait...

    https://twitter.com/mcelarier/status/891033256631705600
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    I am sure Malky will be along in a moment...

    https://twitter.com/mike_blackley/status/890846308008853504
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Great Ormond Street

    total bastarrds

    Really?

    https://medium.com/@charlesarthur/charlie-gard-facts-medicine-and-right-wing-fictions-e4b933ed8c12

    The hospital have right on their side on the treatments but they allowed themselves to get into a confrontation with Charlie Gard's parents and lost any understanding or empathy for the position they were in.

    It is a tragedy not just that they lost their child but also there was a complete breakdown of trust between them and those supposedly caring for their child.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    williamglenn said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    On a related topic, I think the plan to sail HMS Queen Elizabeth through the disputed South China Sea waters is idiotic. How is it remotely in our national interest to provoke Beijing?

    Think of it more as a performance for their entertainment. Beijing will probably be studying Brexit 2016-2018 in great detail for lessons in how to peacefully bring a rogue offshore island to heel.
    Lol.

    The most twattish and traitorous comment you've made yet.

    Go and see a shrink.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    FF43 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Great Ormond Street

    total bastarrds

    Really?

    https://medium.com/@charlesarthur/charlie-gard-facts-medicine-and-right-wing-fictions-e4b933ed8c12

    The hospital have right on their side on the treatments but they allowed themselves to get into a confrontation with Charlie Gard's parents and lost any understanding or empathy for the position they were in.

    It is a tragedy not just that they lost their child but also there was a complete breakdown of trust between them and those supposedly caring for their child.
    How do you know? And anyway so what? You don't apparently think they should have changed anything they did out of understanding or empathy for the parents (and you are right), so your complaint is apparently a touchy-feeliness deficit on the part of GOSH. You have no more knowledge than I do of relations between the parents and the hospital.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    MyBurningEars said:

    It would be very convenient for the rest of the world if the people of Taiwan were to have a shift in opinion about their identity and futures. Perhaps reunion could be seen as a source of renewed prosperity if their economy hits the rails. Perhaps they will recognise that their culture is ultimately Chinese and their brothers lie over the strait.

    But such a shift doesn't seem to be happening. In fact it becomes less likely, the clearer it becomes that China is going down the authoritarian route rather than liberalising, that tolerance for local pockets of autonomy and democracy (as in Hong Kong) is very limited, so that One Country Two Systems will not be worth whatever paper it is written on, and that the measures of suppression they are prepared to employ in Tibet and Xinjiang against groups who do not identify as patriots of Chinese nationality are increasingly extreme.

    Fascinating article on El Reg: "China crams spyware on phones in Muslim-majority province; On-the-spot checks by cops to ensure creepy mass surveillance tool is installed". Complete with pictures of policemen at a checkpoint inspecting phones to ensure people have put on their "Clean Internet" software, that not only blocks specific websites, but also searches a phone's file storage for "illegal" images and can prevent the installation of other applications. It keeps a copy of chat records and Wi-Fi logins and sends them, along with phone-specific IMEI and SIM details, to a government server.

    Since not all Taiwanese will be good Chinese patriots, even if reunion did get through an election or referendum, this is what all Taiwanese people would have to put up with once Beijing takes control. It is, therefore, what a majority of Taiwanese would have to be prepared vote for. usly, that she would kill herself if Taiwan were to become part of China. And I believe it. I also believe there are thousands of others who would be very prepared to die, but not as quietly or bloodlessly as her.

    People have compared the situation in this part of the World to the years before the Pelopennesian War. Sparta (USA) was the existing Hegemon; Athens, (China) the rising power. But, Sparta's allies moved more closely to Sparta, as Athens rose, rather than going over to Athens, because they feared the new great power more than the existing one. So, maybe countries like South Korea, Japan, the Phillippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, will move closer to the USA, and perhaps (like Sparta's allies) seek a war before the strategic balance moves further against them.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    FF43 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Great Ormond Street

    total bastarrds

    Really?

    https://medium.com/@charlesarthur/charlie-gard-facts-medicine-and-right-wing-fictions-e4b933ed8c12

    The hospital have right on their side on the treatments but they allowed themselves to get into a confrontation with Charlie Gard's parents and lost any understanding or empathy for the position they were in.

    It is a tragedy not just that they lost their child but also there was a complete breakdown of trust between them and those supposedly caring for their child.
    I don't think that the case at all.

    In what way did GOSH act without compassion? Did you read the article that I linked to?

    Any death is sad, and a child's death much more so, but this child would have died 8 months ago without the expertise of the neonatologists and geneticists there.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited July 2017
    GeoffM said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Fundraising email from ReadyForMogg.org all excited because "The odds of Jacob Rees-Mogg becoming the next Conservative Party leader have been slashed from 66/1 to 9/1." I was thinking that this measure of progress looks amateurish, but thinking about it what else can they do? Commission some polling and publish or not depending how it looks, I suppose.

    Dear Geoffrey,

    The odds of Jacob Rees-Mogg becoming the next Conservative Party leader have been slashed from 66/1 to 9/1. We are on a path to victory, and that’s thanks to you.

    You are the Moggmentum for this campaign. When you share something on Facebook, tell a friend, or make a donation you are moving our campaign forward.

    Our next step is to recruit volunteers and begin to organise a ground campaign.

    People are already signing up, will you join them?

    DONATE ON OUR CROWDPAC PAGE

    We really appreciate your support. We won’t regularly pester you for donations, but we need your help right now to build on this great start.

    Will you step up and help us reach our goal by donating today?

    DONATE ON OUR CROWDPAC PAGE

    With your continued support, WE’LL be ready… when HE is ready.

    Sincerely,

    Sam Frost,
    Founder, Ready for Rees-Mogg
    I'm all in favour of this type of voluntary redistribution from the wealthy but stupid. But Betfair is a more efficient means to the same end.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:

    rottenborough said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    New North Korean missile test:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40757780

    It really is only a matter of time before there is a war I am sad to say.
    There are several fault lines in that part of the world that could lead to war.

    At my Admiralty Board interview they asked me what, in my opinion, would be the next flashpoint for a war. I said, at random, the Spratly Islands. That was in 1988. I expect I"ll be right eventually.
    Taiwan is another possibility.
    I think Taiwan is the 21st Century Danzig corridor.

    China is too strong for the Americans to stop now.
    How? I don't see the Americans judging it worth starting an armed conflict with China over.

    The US need to accept that China will be the

    They should learn from Britain's example in the Western Hemisphere in the late 19th century.
    The USA will certainly fight, if Taiwan is attacked. Taiwan would be no pushover, militarily, in any case.
    I'm sure the Taiwanese are excellent man for man but scale does count in the end. The Chinese must outnumber them 20 to 1 on any type of equipment or personnel.

    On a related topic, I think the plan to sail HMS Queen Elizabeth through the disputed South China Sea waters is idiotic. How is it remotely in our national interest to provoke Beijing?
    Well, the Chinese would have send about ten times the number of soldiers that the Allies deployed during Operation Overlord, across 100 miles of sea, in the face of massive naval and air attacks.

    How exactly do you do that as a surprise attack?
    I don't think the Taiwanese are equivalent to the Wehrmacht and Waffen-SS of 1944, though.

    If China mounted a massive all-out effort, I think the US would be hammered in the locality, and Taiwan taken, albeit with tens of thousands of causalities. A lot of the Taiwanese strength is paper strength, and they wouldn't fight like the Japanese circa 1944-45.

    It's the economic and political fallout that stops China doing it.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    edited July 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    FF43 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Great Ormond Street

    total bastarrds

    Really?

    https://medium.com/@charlesarthur/charlie-gard-facts-medicine-and-right-wing-fictions-e4b933ed8c12

    The hospital have right on their side on the treatments but they allowed themselves to get into a confrontation with Charlie Gard's parents and lost any understanding or empathy for the position they were in.

    It is a tragedy not just that they lost their child but also there was a complete breakdown of trust between them and those supposedly caring for their child.
    How do you know? And anyway so what? You don't apparently think they should have changed anything they did out of understanding or empathy for the parents (and you are right), so your complaint is apparently a touchy-feeliness deficit on the part of GOSH. You have no more knowledge than I do of relations between the parents and the hospital.
    As far as Charlie Gard is concerned, there was nothing else they could, or rather should, do. But they have obligations to the parents too, who are very vulnerable and have to deal with the situation. Touchy-feeliness matters. A lot.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    "After living in Britain, most recently in the north-west since 1995, both will take up senior positions with a leading German hospital company, on more than double their UK salaries.

    Their decision was made easier by the fact that stones were thrown through the windows of their house barely 24 hours after the referendum, and that their six-year-old daughter came home in tears after being told in the playground by a classmate that she would soon have to “go home”."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/28/brexit-the-eu-nationals-exiting-britain-a-bit-of-me-is-dying-but-i-cant-stay
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Beverley_C said:

    "After living in Britain, most recently in the north-west since 1995, both will take up senior positions with a leading German hospital company, on more than double their UK salaries.

    Their decision was made easier by the fact that stones were thrown through the windows of their house barely 24 hours after the referendum, and that their six-year-old daughter came home in tears after being told in the playground by a classmate that she would soon have to “go home”."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/28/brexit-the-eu-nationals-exiting-britain-a-bit-of-me-is-dying-but-i-cant-stay

    Made up bollocks.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    FF43 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FF43 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Great Ormond Street

    total bastarrds

    Really?

    https://medium.com/@charlesarthur/charlie-gard-facts-medicine-and-right-wing-fictions-e4b933ed8c12

    The hospital have right on their side on the treatments but they allowed themselves to get into a confrontation with Charlie Gard's parents and lost any understanding or empathy for the position they were in.

    It is a tragedy not just that they lost their child but also there was a complete breakdown of trust between them and those supposedly caring for their child.
    How do you know? And anyway so what? You don't apparently think they should have changed anything they did out of understanding or empathy for the parents (and you are right), so your complaint is apparently a touchy-feeliness deficit on the part of GOSH. You have no more knowledge than I do of relations between the parents and the hospital.
    As far as Charlie Gard is concerned, there was nothing else they could, or rather should, do. But they have obligations to the parents too, who are very vulnerable and have to deal with the situation. Touchy-feeliness matters. A lot.
    Dealings between the parents and the hospital will have consisted of private face to face interviews which you weren't at.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/891045797353185280
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    FF43 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    FF43 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Great Ormond Street

    total bastarrds

    Really?

    https://medium.com/@charlesarthur/charlie-gard-facts-medicine-and-right-wing-fictions-e4b933ed8c12

    The hospital have right on their side on the treatments but they allowed themselves to get into a confrontation with Charlie Gard's parents and lost any understanding or empathy for the position they were in.

    It is a tragedy not just that they lost their child but also there was a complete breakdown of trust between them and those supposedly caring for their child.
    How do you know? And anyway so what? You don't apparently think they should have changed anything they did out of understanding or empathy for the parents (and you are right), so your complaint is apparently a touchy-feeliness deficit on the part of GOSH. You have no more knowledge than I do of relations between the parents and the hospital.
    As far as Charlie Gard is concerned, there was nothing else they could, or rather should, do. But they have obligations to the parents too, who are very vulnerable and have to deal with the situation. Touchy-feeliness matters. A lot.
    I know first hand that GOSH are very good at the touchy feely stuff too. There is only so far that you can go when dealing with denial of reality. They tried for months before it all went high profile legal.

    Worth noting that while parents can go to whatever media they choose, hospitals can only respond via their legal teams because of patient confidentiality.
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