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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest by-election results and summary for July
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest by-election results and summary for July
July 27th Local By-Election Summary Fallowfield on Manchester (Lab defence) Result: Labour 861 (77% +15% on last time), Green Party 105 (9% -13% on last time), Liberal Democrat 82 (7% +3% on last time), Conservative 72 (6% -4% on last time) Labour HOLD with a majority of 756 (68%) on a swing of 14% from Green to Labour
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Thanks, Harry.
This is the Diane Abbott statistical analysis where increased vote share means 'on the slide'.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40757119
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40757780
They wouldn't want US allies to have a direct border with China. An occupation and puppet regime that isn't crazy would suit them.
Mr. F, or, indeed, have (Yemen's not in great shape. Some tragic reports from ITV News there recently. Over a third of a million have cholera).
"UK passengers on our clapped out privatised railway, are paying more and more to help keep fares down on other European railways."
http://metro.co.uk/2017/07/28/cost-of-commuting-is-about-to-rocket-as-european-rail-owners-rob-passengers-6812282/#mv-b
Reap, reap, reap, you're gonna reap just whaaat you sow.
the blackmail is due to EU law letting state owned companies takeover UK rail franchises
it has bugger all to do with brexit and everything to do with the open EU market
European companies with UK oligopolies routinely fleece their customers
its why big corporates love the EU
Have you gone all Corbynite in your dotage?
its and issue of lack of competition
Look!! 51/6 ha ha ha ha ha ha.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/27/france-nationalises-strategic-shipyard-emmanuel-macron
He obviously has something against Italian ownership of French business.
Hasn't Kim Jong-un gotten rid of most of the (relative) doves with Chinese ties?
More importantly, would you ban - say - Deutsche Bahn from running a UK rail line post Brexit?
Or, to put it another way, what has any of this got to do with Brexit in the first place?
He really is demonstrating what a carcrash populism is. Populism is destru tive but is particularly prone to self destruction when it reaches the point of contact with reality.
China is too strong for the Americans to stop now.
The correct and only winning answer, depending on when in 1988 your Board was would have been the Nagorno-Karabakh War or the Mauritania–Senegal Border War.
It's so recent it doesn't actually class as "history".
But I do read modern history. I've read a couple of chapters on King John already today.
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The US need to accept that China will be the hegemonic military power in the South China Sea and the Western Pacific. They could only contest it at a cost unacceptable to the American public.
They should learn from Britain's example in the Western Hemisphere in the late 19th century.
I don't thing the US would be able to intervene in time to affect the outcome. I also don't think the Taiwanese would fancy an endless futile guerilla war against the PRC.
On a related topic, I think the plan to sail HMS Queen Elizabeth through the disputed South China Sea waters is idiotic. How is it remotely in our national interest to provoke Beijing?
9.2% it says 'ere
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2015/01/26/2003610092
Presumably some of the US dollars are in anti-anti-aircraft carrier assets.
If I were the Politburo, I would order it as a complete surprise. If they have a taste for historical anniversaries, they can't do much better than 2019, 70 years after the declaration of the PRC. It will also underline the USA's decline in the penultimate year of Trump's presidency.
Hopefully I'm totally and utterly wrong!
total bastarrds
The Chinese leadership is very frustrated by Taiwan. Not one of them thinks it is anything other than a part of China by right. What the Taiwanese think is irrelevant. Claims to sovereignty through popular will are meaningless as far as they are concerned.But they really don't want to have to take Taiwan by force.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2017/jul/28/trojan-horse-affair-remaining-disciplinary-proceedings-dropped-teachers-birmingham-schools
How exactly do you do that as a surprise attack?
They have been planning for invasion for 70 years now. As well as the small percentage who favour re-unification, there are a much bigger percentage who consider themselves Taiwanese. They are prepared for a guerrilla war in the cities and in the mountains (the highest peak East of the Himalayas is on Taiwan). They are well-armed and have conscription. Any invasion would be bloody and protracted. Wouldn't fancy a battle in the back alleys of Taipei or in the rainforest. If invasion was easy, it would have happened long ago.
We've been hearing lots of Remoaners rescinding invitations because people had the audacity to vote leave. Imagine you're a leaver and you know williamglenn.
It would be infuriating.
They are also a dynamic, tolerant open democratic society, who operate under the Rule of Law.
https://medium.com/@charlesarthur/charlie-gard-facts-medicine-and-right-wing-fictions-e4b933ed8c12
But such a shift doesn't seem to be happening. In fact it becomes less likely, the clearer it becomes that China is going down the authoritarian route rather than liberalising, that tolerance for local pockets of autonomy and democracy (as in Hong Kong) is very limited, so that One Country Two Systems will not be worth whatever paper it is written on, and that the measures of suppression they are prepared to employ in Tibet and Xinjiang against groups who do not identify as patriots of Chinese nationality are increasingly extreme.
Fascinating article on El Reg: "China crams spyware on phones in Muslim-majority province; On-the-spot checks by cops to ensure creepy mass surveillance tool is installed". Complete with pictures of policemen at a checkpoint inspecting phones to ensure people have put on their "Clean Internet" software, that not only blocks specific websites, but also searches a phone's file storage for "illegal" images and can prevent the installation of other applications. It keeps a copy of chat records and Wi-Fi logins and sends them, along with phone-specific IMEI and SIM details, to a government server.
Since not all Taiwanese will be good Chinese patriots, even if reunion did get through an election or referendum, this is what all Taiwanese people would have to put up with once Beijing takes control. It is, therefore, what a majority of Taiwanese would have to be prepared vote for. Not imminently likely.
A Taiwanese graduate student in the UK I knew about ten years ago was genuinely scared (physically fearful, they would shake or cry to talk about it) that if the KMT won another election that they might try to sneak Taiwan back into Beijing's sphere via the backdoor, and without the scrutiny an in-out referendum would require. This is one reason there has been such ferocious opposition in Taiwan to apparently basic steps easing trade and migration (even if just to the levels you might expect between two mutually wary states, which you might think would be the end-game of the pro-independence movement) - a fear that it's a ratchet effect, an irreversible step towards co-dependency, from which further integration will inevitably follow. She said several times, very seriously, that she would kill herself if Taiwan were to become part of China. And I believe it. I also believe there are thousands of others who would be very prepared to die, but not as quietly or bloodlessly as her.
Good result for Skaramoosh
Oh, wait...
https://twitter.com/mcelarier/status/891033256631705600
https://twitter.com/mike_blackley/status/890846308008853504
It is a tragedy not just that they lost their child but also there was a complete breakdown of trust between them and those supposedly caring for their child.
The most twattish and traitorous comment you've made yet.
Go and see a shrink.
In what way did GOSH act without compassion? Did you read the article that I linked to?
Any death is sad, and a child's death much more so, but this child would have died 8 months ago without the expertise of the neonatologists and geneticists there.
Their decision was made easier by the fact that stones were thrown through the windows of their house barely 24 hours after the referendum, and that their six-year-old daughter came home in tears after being told in the playground by a classmate that she would soon have to “go home”."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/28/brexit-the-eu-nationals-exiting-britain-a-bit-of-me-is-dying-but-i-cant-stay
- the development of experimental treatment for rare disorders is slowed by the shortage of suitable candidates;
- the parents were willing, indeed eager*, for such a trial,
- the child was a goner either way,
- there were risks of causing harm (e.g. prolonging suffering) but it is difficult to know if a child with such neurological defects is "suffering" in the sense an adult does, nor can we quantify just how bad the treatment's effects might be (this is one of the reasons for wanting to do the research),
- these potential risks should be set against the potential benefits to future patients from what might be learned by undertaking "treatment".
If there was high-quality research value to be had from such a trial, even if it was extremely unlikely to benefit the child directly, and provided there were procedures in place to minimise harm if the effects turned out to be catastrophic, there seems to be a prima facie social argument for going ahead with "treatment".
* One of the things that undermines this argument is the likelihood that the parents' consent was not fully informed, that they would be doing it in the hope of a massively unlikely miracle rather than simply to ensure their child's death might benefit others in some way.