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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay doesn’t need reminding. Within a month of making his CON
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay doesn’t need reminding. Within a month of making his CON 2003 conference speech to IDS was ousted.
According to the Indy 15 CON MPs have sent no confidence letter to the the Chair of the 1922 committee. This is part of the party’s formal process for ousting a leader. If 48 such letters are received then there would have to be a confidence vote amongst the parliamentary party.
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May should stick on safe ground and deliver her speech in a warehouse standing in front of a bus, rather than in a conference hall full of activists.
meanwhile EU sits on its hands and does nothing
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/diesel-affaere/kartellverdacht-daimler-und-vw-vollzogen-wohl-teilrueckzug-15119379.html
some animals are more equal than others
"The Labour leader said that after leaving the EU, there would still be European workers in Britain and vice versa. He added: "What there wouldn't be is the wholesale importation of underpaid workers from central Europe in order to destroy conditions, particularly in the construction industry.
What we wouldn't allow is this practice by agencies, who are quite disgraceful they way they do it - recruit a workforce, low paid - and bring them here in order to dismiss an existing workforce in the construction industry, then pay them low wages. It's appalling. And the only people who benefit are the companies."
https://twitter.com/newstatesman/status/889083270062907392
No. The Conservatives were undone by the fact that people expected to lose out under many of their proposals. Spelling out exactly how much they would lose out by would not have helped.
Yes, I'm sure there will be a huge amount of rallying round at the Conservative Conference, at least publicly. May is no IDS and I very much doubt her Conference speech will be as embarrassing.
The question then becomes whether enough letters will be received to trigger a No Confidence Vote. Had IDS performed well in October 2003, he might have been given another chance (he only lost 90-75) but his speech at the vote was a dud and he hadn't prepared properly. May won't make that mistake.
IF the vote is triggered, there are two possible outcomes - first, May wins and life goes on for now or she loses and the gates of Hell are opened (by which I mean nominations).
We go back to the 1990 scenario - Thatcher fell because poll showed the Party doing much better with Heseltine or Major in charge (enough to save dozens of marginal seats with an election within 18 months). Does such a difference exist now ? Would a Johnson, Davis, Gove or Leadsom-led Party be ten points in front of Labour now (four years plus away from an election at least) ?
A challenge therefore means a willingness to risk an election. I really can't see anyone in the Conservative party wanting to run that risk right now. May may decide this is not worth the candle and quit but I don't see her being challenged for some time to come.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/24/get-ready-die-video-shows-tv-producer-shocking-road-rage-incident/
IDS was a bit like Corbyn in that respect -- the party convinced itself IDS was electoral poison and disregarded any contrary evidence (and Michael Howard still lost).
So Conference is irrelevant.
Given that it appears you've forgetting the GE result, it's a big cheeky of you to accuse me of misremembering. Looks like you've started a debate that you don't want to finish - if that's the case it's very simple, don't reply to my posts.
Mr. F, there is something of 4th century BC Macedonian kingship about the Conservative Party.
Although at least Leadsom only said 'As a mother...' unlike Roxanne, who pre-emptively murdered Alexander's other two widows just in case either were pregnant.
The way he accepted his shellacking from the electorate was about the only thing he got right after between 1992 and 1997...
Not BoJo, not Davis, not Hammond, not the Moggster, certainly not Loathsome, and not even Priti.
That person is Jeremy Corbyn.
What would be interesting is how many PB Conservatives agree with me?
At the end of virtually every sentence the membership would rise to their feet and whoop, clap and cheer (like they do in the Senate when POTUS gives his address)
Was incredibly irritating... It was like a collective madness descended on the audience...
Very odd!
So much for "straight talking, honest politics".
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/macedonian-she-wolves.html
The Diadochi period is fascinating, but little known. Imagine 12 or so alpha males (and females) all battling for supremacy. Constantly shifting loyalties, battlefield clashes, assassination attempts, all with the ghost of Alexander the Great watching over proceedings.
Mr. F, Rome staggered on for a long old while in the West.
Cameron and Osborne's work in returning the Tories to something at least approaching sanity is not to be underrated.
Deja vu all over again!
That said, abdicating didn't exactly pay off for his wife and daughter (separate people) when they were captured far away and he then lacked the power to force their freedom. I forget what happened to them.
And I also don't expect May herself to quit, to decide she "just can't take it anymore" - for all her flaws, she's clearly a very resilient woman, she wouldn't have survived for nearly 20 years at the top of politics if she wasn't - and also, at the risk of sounding like Andrea Leadsom, it's not like May will have much else to occupy her life if she were to take early retirement. She will stay unless/until it's obvious Tory MPs are going to oust her IMO.
"I don't see why those that had the historical misfortune to be at university during the £9,000 period should be burdened excessively compared to those that went before or those that come after.
"I will deal with it."
He also said:
"Yes, there is a block of those that currently have a massive debt, and I’m looking at ways that we could reduce that, ameliorate that, lengthen the period of paying it off, or some other means of reducing that debt burden.”
Philip Hammond said he wanted to reduce the tax burden. Perhaps we should infer from that he promised to eliminate all taxes?
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39776803
Withdrawal from the Exchange Rate Mechanism so sterling no longer had to track the Euro.
Government deficit reduction.
Recovery in growth.
Reduced unemployment.
Winning the Gulf War.
She'll go Summer 2019. One way or another.
I was there and CCHQ had planted applauders all around the auditorium.
I had sore hands. I knew the whole thing was contrived.
1. We wouldn't have been in the ERM if it wasn't for Major and his europhile obsessive friends like Heseltine, Clarke, etc - Yes Black Wednesday turned out to be a tremendous success for UK PLC in the end but never forget it happened in spite of Major not because of him. And for thousands of people who were turfed out of their homes after his interest rate hikes it also came at a terrible price.
2. They bust the economy so the least they could do was clear up the mess.
3. Ditto.
4. Ditto.
5. It was hardly an even contest...
Major and his government was a disaster after 1992.
As you say, the juxtaposition is not helpful.
Women candidates were more likely to receive gendered abusive words like "witch".
Jeremy Corbyn was the politician who received the highest amount of abusive messages on Twitter during the campaign.
The overwhelming majority of insulting tweets were targeted at a relatively small number of prominent politicians.
When the findings were broken down by party and gender, male Conservative candidates were the group receiving the highest percentage of abuse in their Twitter mentions.
You weren't correcting me - you presented your relocation of events as established fact and kept on repeating it - offering no counter arguments as why the points I brought up were wrong. The difference between that the previous argument is that you provided a link to challenge my claim very quickly. Here you have simply spent time repeating your point and claiming that it is fact over and over again.
You seem to not understand that simply saying something is fact does not make it so.
Once HS2 is paid for there will be no money left for XRail2. Electrification is already being cancelled to make room for HS2 spending.
As for HS3 or trans-pennine electrification, don't hold your breath.
I suppose as shadow, it is just about ok as he is not as of now an actual minister.
Everybody wants "access" to SM (even Jezza, Britains original Brexiteer
Kinder, gentler politics!