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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting sentiment is moving away from David Davis for next

SystemSystem Posts: 11,687
edited July 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting sentiment is moving away from David Davis for next CON leader but he’s still favourite

David Davis slipping sharply in next CON leader betting. Charts via @betdatapolitics pic.twitter.com/akvBtxiW2U

Read the full story here


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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,315
    edited July 2017
    Just look at Jacob - and first by the way
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Just look at Jacob - and first by the way

    Anyone betting on Jacob is cream crackers,
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,315
    Just caught up on Diane Abbott on ITV re police number. It is getting hideously embarrassing and she is shadow home secretary
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Davis Johnson Rees Mogg Hammond Rudd.

    LOL!!!!!!
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,315
    edited July 2017

    Just look at Jacob - and first by the way

    Anyone betting on Jacob is cream crackers,
    Joint second favourite

    My post in the previous thread:

    Good discussion with Jacob Rees Mogg and Caroline Flint with Boulton on Sky and remarkable agreement between them. We tend to have sub titles on sometimes in our old age and it was hilarious when Jacob responded to Boulton re Heseltine and Blair interventions in Latin and the sub titles couldn't handle it.

    It may be unlikely but Jacob is getting a cult following (where have we heard that before)
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,315
    Roger said:

    Davis Johnson Rees Mogg Hammond Rudd.

    LOL!!!!!!

    Politics is fun Roger
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
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    dodradedodrade Posts: 595

    Just look at Jacob - and first by the way

    Anyone betting on Jacob is cream crackers,
    Joint second favourite

    My post in the previous thread:

    Good discussion with Jacob Rees Mogg and Caroline Flint with Boulton on Sky and remarkable agreement between them. We tend to have sub titles on sometimes in our old age and it was hilarious when Jacob responded to Boulton re Heseltine and Blair interventions in Latin and the sub titles couldn't handle it.

    It may be unlikely but Jacob is getting a cult following (where have we heard that before)
    I thought it was the Speaker's job he really wanted?
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Roger said:

    Davis Johnson Rees Mogg Hammond Rudd.

    LOL!!!!!!

    Politics is fun Roger
    Are they looking for a leader or doing a remake of 'One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest?
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,315
    dodrade said:

    Just look at Jacob - and first by the way

    Anyone betting on Jacob is cream crackers,
    Joint second favourite

    My post in the previous thread:

    Good discussion with Jacob Rees Mogg and Caroline Flint with Boulton on Sky and remarkable agreement between them. We tend to have sub titles on sometimes in our old age and it was hilarious when Jacob responded to Boulton re Heseltine and Blair interventions in Latin and the sub titles couldn't handle it.

    It may be unlikely but Jacob is getting a cult following (where have we heard that before)
    I thought it was the Speaker's job he really wanted?
    He did but he is being talked up by many and really Speaker rather than PM
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,315
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Davis Johnson Rees Mogg Hammond Rudd.

    LOL!!!!!!

    Politics is fun Roger
    Are they looking for a leader or doing a remake of 'One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest?
    Who knows anything these days. Vince coming out in support of Hammond and hitting out at Corbyn's Venezuela economics was a surprise but welcome
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    isamisam Posts: 40,931
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,325
    Jacob's Technicolour Dream Chart
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited July 2017

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Davis Johnson Rees Mogg Hammond Rudd.

    LOL!!!!!!

    Politics is fun Roger
    Are they looking for a leader or doing a remake of 'One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest?
    Who knows anything these days. Vince coming out in support of Hammond and hitting out at Corbyn's Venezuela economics was a surprise but welcome
    Why on earth would you be surprised that someone who happily went into government with the Tories for 5 years, vocally supporting most of that government's flagship policies, would prefer a Tory leader over Labour?

    Where PBers got this idea of Cable being a "leftie" from is beyond me.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    OT I was shooting an Opel 4x4 commercial in Spain with a male and a female model and after shooting for three days the male somehow discovered that the girl was being paid twice as much as he was. (Quite simply she had a better agent).

    Nonetheless knowing he had us over a barrel he said he wouldn't continue unless he got the same as her. The production company were scared shi*less. I asked if I could speak to him that evening. They said I could but it wouldn't do any good. He and his agent were adamant.

    I met him that night and told him that I would re shoot all his scenes and he could go back to Paris. At six o'clock the following morning he apologised.

    It seems good negotiators are hard to come by........

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/20/ten-female-presenters-considering-suing-bbc-pay-dispute/
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,289

    Just look at Jacob - and first by the way

    Anyone betting on Jacob is cream crackers,
    Indeed. It would be the Tories' final detachment from reality.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,325
    Danny565 said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Davis Johnson Rees Mogg Hammond Rudd.

    LOL!!!!!!

    Politics is fun Roger
    Are they looking for a leader or doing a remake of 'One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest?
    Who knows anything these days. Vince coming out in support of Hammond and hitting out at Corbyn's Venezuela economics was a surprise but welcome
    Why on earth would you be surprised that someone who happily went into government with the Tories for 5 years, vocally supporting most of that government's flagship policies, would prefer a Tory leader over Labour?

    Where PBers got this idea of Cable being a "leftie" from is beyond me.
    He was a Lab councillor in Glasgow way back when
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Jonathan said:
    Is Karen Bradley really being talked up as a potential leadership candidate?!?

    I just had to search her name to remind myself who she was.
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    It's a choice of evils if ever the was one.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited July 2017
    Roger said:

    OT I was shooting an Opel 4x4 commercial in Spain with a male and a female model and after shooting for three days the male somehow discovered that the girl was being paid twice as much as he was. (Quite simply she had a better agent).

    Nonetheless knowing he had us over a barrel he said he wouldn't continue unless he got the same as her. The production company were scared shi*less. I asked if I could speak to him that evening. They said I could but it wouldn't do any good. He and his agent were adamant.

    I met him that night and told him that I would re shoot all his scenes and he could go back to Paris. At six o'clock the following morning he apologised.

    It seems good negotiators are hard to come by........

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/20/ten-female-presenters-considering-suing-bbc-pay-dispute/

    None of that nonsense will be needed now...

    https://m.slashdot.org/story/328943

    The machines are coming for their jobs.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    edited July 2017
    How long before crossover occurs with Davis/Hammond/Boris and JRM? ;)
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822

    Just look at Jacob - and first by the way

    Anyone betting on Jacob is cream crackers,
    Anyone betting on Corbyn at this point in 2015 would've been a cream cracker... And now look where we are. ;)
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    How much is the BBC paying Katya Adler?

    I think she's excellent.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited July 2017

    Roger said:

    OT I was shooting an Opel 4x4 commercial in Spain with a male and a female model and after shooting for three days the male somehow discovered that the girl was being paid twice as much as he was. (Quite simply she had a better agent).

    Nonetheless knowing he had us over a barrel he said he wouldn't continue unless he got the same as her. The production company were scared shi*less. I asked if I could speak to him that evening. They said I could but it wouldn't do any good. He and his agent were adamant.

    I met him that night and told him that I would re shoot all his scenes and he could go back to Paris. At six o'clock the following morning he apologised.

    It seems good negotiators are hard to come by........

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/20/ten-female-presenters-considering-suing-bbc-pay-dispute/

    None of that nonsense will be needed now...

    https://m.slashdot.org/story/328943

    The machines are coming for their jobs.
    Very interesting. Very brilliant. Not quite perfect but I'm glad I'm not just starting out. Creativity is being replaced by tricks
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,481
    @jdportes: UK beginning to accept administrative & political reality. One of the more minor concessions that will be required...

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/888138846088638465
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    Danny565 said:

    How much is the BBC paying Katya Adler?

    I think she's excellent.

    Is she one of the ten apparently planning to sue the BBC? :D

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/20/ten-female-presenters-considering-suing-bbc-pay-dispute/
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    isamisam Posts: 40,931

    @jdportes: UK beginning to accept administrative & political reality. One of the more minor concessions that will be required...

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/888138846088638465

    Didn't even know OJ was here!
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Roger said:

    OT I was shooting an Opel 4x4 commercial in Spain with a male and a female model and after shooting for three days the male somehow discovered that the girl was being paid twice as much as he was. (Quite simply she had a better agent).

    Nonetheless knowing he had us over a barrel he said he wouldn't continue unless he got the same as her. The production company were scared shi*less. I asked if I could speak to him that evening. They said I could but it wouldn't do any good. He and his agent were adamant.

    I met him that night and told him that I would re shoot all his scenes and he could go back to Paris. At six o'clock the following morning he apologised.

    It seems good negotiators are hard to come by........

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/20/ten-female-presenters-considering-suing-bbc-pay-dispute/

    None of that nonsense will be needed now...

    https://m.slashdot.org/story/328943

    The machines are coming for their jobs.
    Every part done in camera.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCmhR2JK1VE
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    isam said:

    @jdportes: UK beginning to accept administrative & political reality. One of the more minor concessions that will be required...

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/888138846088638465

    Didn't even know OJ was here!
    :D
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    The betting market movements on the next CON leader seem to me a reflection that Theresa May is more secure than she was a week or two back.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,481
    Looks like Phil Hammond has got a two year transition deal devised, and crucially everyone in the cabinet is backing him

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/888147234969313281
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    The betting market movements on the next CON leader seem to me a reflection that Theresa May is more secure than she was a week or two back.

    The key determinant of who is next Tory leader is when the contest occurs. If it is pre Brexit then it would be because the progress is looking very poor indeed. This may necessitate a firm believer, but is unlikely to be DD or BoJo as they would be heavily tarred by things going badly. JRM fits the bill here. Less likely would be a continuity Remain candidate, which is where Hammond comes in.

    If the contest is post Brexit, we are not in Kansas anymore, and whether someone believes in Brexit or not becomes obsolete.

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,325
    edited July 2017
    dr_spyn said:
    "Poetry has been Bury Bury good to me"

    Seen at Bury tram station.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,481
    Can't see free movement continuing until after the next general election.

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/888149907948933121
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,481
    The British cabinet has accepted that free movement of people for up to four years after Britain leaves the EU will be part of a Brexit transition deal, according to a senior source.

    As the EU chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, underlined the need for clarity on the British side at the end of the latest round of exit negotiations, soft Brexiters in the cabinet are now confident they have achieved a consensus about an “off the shelf” transition deal.

    The claim that a collective view has been reached comes after weeks of a brutal briefing war over competing visions of Brexit since the general election wiped out Theresa May’s majority, culminating in the prime minister’s admonition this week that there is “no such thing as an unsackable minister”, and sowing confusion in Brussels about the reliability of the British negotiating position.

    But as David Davis concluded Brexit talks in Brussels on Thursday, the senior cabinet source told the Guardian that the mood has shifted significantly and that ministers now hoped to agree a deal as soon as possible to give certainty to British business.

    “If you ask business when they want to see it agreed, they’d say tomorrow,” the source said, adding that such a deal could last up to four years – but more likely three – and could be expected to involve continued free movement of people.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/20/cabinet-accepts-brexit-transition-will-mean-years-of-free-movement?CMP=share_btn_tw
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Boring

    We won. LAB lost

    Fack off Labour
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079

    the source said, adding that such a deal could last up to four years – but more likely three – and could be expected to involve continued free movement of people.

    Ten years it is then. :)
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,481

    the source said, adding that such a deal could last up to four years – but more likely three – and could be expected to involve continued free movement of people.

    Ten years it is then. :)
    Best make it 25 years so we can get it sorted out properly.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,631
    I missed this comment from Trump about Macron...
    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/07/anything-you-can-do-trump-can-do-better/534360/
    “He’s a great guy. Smart. Strong. Loves holding my hand.” And then: “People don’t realize he loves holding my hand.” And yet again: “I think he is going to be a terrific president of France. But he does love holding my hand.”

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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,826
    @Richard_Tyndall

    ...I am happy to report that the tests, whilst very uncomfortable, have shown no signs of the dreaded cancer and there will be further examinations to see if I have kidney stones...

    Excellent! You’ll be up and around in no time. And perhaps one day you and I shall meet on the field of battle and I will destroy you for the glory of the Sontaran Empire. Now try and get some rest.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Merton - St Helier by-election

    Lab 1508
    Con 318
    LD 98
    Green 61
    UKIP 15


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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    I have always been a strong believer in BBC impartiality but after seeing Suzanne Evans on Newsnight I'm having to reconsider. Why would someone put her on other than to prove how vacuous and absurd the Leave case is?

    Come on BBC pull your socks up. Your slip is showing (excuse the tangled metafor but that's what Susanne Evans does to you)
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    isamisam Posts: 40,931
    Roger said:

    I have always been a strong believer in BBC impartiality but after seeing Suzanne Evans on Newsnight I'm having to reconsider. Why would someone put her on other than to prove how vacuous and absurd the Leave case is?

    Come on BBC pull your socks up. Your slip is showing (excuse the tangled metafor but that's what Susanne Evans does to you)

    Phuckin ell!
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    isamisam Posts: 40,931
    Looks like Portillo gets paid more than Liz for TW!

    https://twitter.com/bbcthisweek/status/888169593453391874
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    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    Green is First Sec and effectively DPM right now and seems the best value here, but only as a trading bet. The likelihood is the next CON leader is a fair few years away; too long to tie up your money.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Whissendine (Rutland) : Ind gain from LD
    Staffordshire Moorlands, Leek East: Lab gain from Con
    Rutland Ketton: Con hold
    Wealden, Chiddingly and East Hoathly: Con hold
    Stockton-on-Tees, Billingham North: Lab hold
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Eden, Alston Moor: Lab gain from LD (who didn't field a candidate)
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,004
    Now: it's gone pretty much unnoticed on here, but the first bit of Brexit negotiations has actually gone quite well for us.

    Do you remember how there was going to be no discussion of trade until after the Exit Bill had been agreed? Well, you know what, the Exit Bill has not been agreed, and there have been quite substantive discussions about trade.

    This is good, because it suggests that despite all the headlines, the EU is prioritizing a trade deal, and the UK's strategy of "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" is working. My sources (well, source) tells me that we are very close on citizens rights, and Northern Ireland, and - while the devil is in the details - the broadest of outlines of an FTA have been agreed.

    I wouldn't pay any attention to the "Brexit Bill" discussions. The UK wants to demonstrate the EU didn't get everything it wanted; the EU wants to demonstrate that it "hangs tough". Truth be told, if there is a multi-year adjustment period, then any bill gets absorbed without complication in a series of decreasing payments.

    There is a single fly in this ointment, and that is that Liam Fox is the only dissenter in the cabinet. May, Hammond and the rest are broadly in agreement on the need for a 3-4 year adjustment period. (This covers a wide variety of views, of course. Some will accept limited ECJ rulings and FoM in this period, others insist we must be free sooner.) The exception is Liam Fox who has argued for a transition period "of two to four months".

    Now call my cynical, but I don't believe Dr Fox genuinely believes a three month transition is optimal. But he believes the only way to get his hands on the Crown is to be the "arch Leaver", with everyone else a traitor to the vote.

    It will be interesting to see how this develops.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,931
    edited July 2017
    .
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    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    Interesting analysis, especially your comments re background talks on trade. Obviously, the UK has clearly demonstrated that the Brexit bill legal basis is not strong and therefore it will be traded off against a trade deal - this is the obvious outcome. As long as the trade deal covers services, I think it can be managed.

    I think we can safely ignore Fox. Ultimately if the outcome is full Brexit, outside the SM and CU with an FTA, then people are going to be flexible as to how we get there.
    rcs1000 said:

    Now: it's gone pretty much unnoticed on here, but the first bit of Brexit negotiations has actually gone quite well for us.

    Do you remember how there was going to be no discussion of trade until after the Exit Bill had been agreed? Well, you know what, the Exit Bill has not been agreed, and there have been quite substantive discussions about trade.

    This is good, because it suggests that despite all the headlines, the EU is prioritizing a trade deal, and the UK's strategy of "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" is working. My sources (well, source) tells me that we are very close on citizens rights, and Northern Ireland, and - while the devil is in the details - the broadest of outlines of an FTA have been agreed.

    I wouldn't pay any attention to the "Brexit Bill" discussions. The UK wants to demonstrate the EU didn't get everything it wanted; the EU wants to demonstrate that it "hangs tough". Truth be told, if there is a multi-year adjustment period, then any bill gets absorbed without complication in a series of decreasing payments.

    There is a single fly in this ointment, and that is that Liam Fox is the only dissenter in the cabinet. May, Hammond and the rest are broadly in agreement on the need for a 3-4 year adjustment period. (This covers a wide variety of views, of course. Some will accept limited ECJ rulings and FoM in this period, others insist we must be free sooner.) The exception is Liam Fox who has argued for a transition period "of two to four months".

    Now call my cynical, but I don't believe Dr Fox genuinely believes a three month transition is optimal. But he believes the only way to get his hands on the Crown is to be the "arch Leaver", with everyone else a traitor to the vote.

    It will be interesting to see how this develops.

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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Amber's ticked back up to 7% I see. She's still my tip.
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    Can't see free movement continuing until after the next general election.

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/888149907948933121

    Don't see why not. Although 52% voted for Brexit, less than half of voters want an end to FOM.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Tonight's council by-election results:

    Lab: 4 (+2)
    Con: 3 (-1)
    Ind: 1 (+1)
    LDem: 0 (-2)

    Awaiting St Michaels (Knowsley): Lab defence.

    Sleazy, broken, divided, leaking Tories on the slide.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,708
    surbiton said:

    Tonight's council by-election results:

    Lab: 4 (+2)
    Con: 3 (-1)
    Ind: 1 (+1)
    LDem: 0 (-2)

    Awaiting St Michaels (Knowsley): Lab defence.

    Sleazy, broken, divided, leaking Tories on the slide.

    3 holds vs zero holds for the Lib Dems?
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Can't see free movement continuing until after the next general election.

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/888149907948933121

    'You've got a banana in your ear'

    'Sorry?'

    "I SAID YOU'VE GOT A BANANA IN YOUR EAR!'

    'Sorry I can't hear you. Ive got a banana in my ear'
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908

    Can't see free movement continuing until after the next general election.

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/888149907948933121

    Don't know how they know but I hope they do know.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    isam said:

    Looks like Portillo gets paid more than Liz for TW!

    https://twitter.com/bbcthisweek/status/888169593453391874

    You would expect that to be the case. What would be wrong is if AJ gets more than Leicester Liz.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Strong words from Portillo, describing John Nicolson as being like Lord Haw-Haw.
This discussion has been closed.