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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » EXCLUSIVE Support for a second Brexit vote is growing and Leav
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » EXCLUSIVE Support for a second Brexit vote is growing and Leavers should be nervous
As Tony Blair gave one of his characteristically unwelcome interventions in British politics last week many were asking why he bothers. With parties supporting Brexit winning more than 8 in 10 votes at the recent General Election you could be forgiven for assuming that the former PM’s calls for Brexit to be stopped will fall on deaf ears and the issue is settled.
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No one will change their mind until we start seeing and feeling real world impact... and I think that will take time to filter through.
We also have no idea how the negotiations are going or will go.
What we do know is that Cabinet is divided which increases the difficulty of sorting this out.
IMO the need for a transitional deal to buy time is greater than ever. But would the JRMs of this world would accept that?
TWBNB
http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/culture/andrew-neil-britain-s-most-feared-broadcaster-1-5108221
EU negotiations are sending anxious Remainers to Harley Street with ‘Brexit anxiety’
PSYCHOLOGISTS have coined the term “Brexit anxiety” after seeing a surge in anxious Remainers asking for help in the aftermath of Britain's decision to leave the EU.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/829442/brexit-anxiety-negotiations-theresa-may-donald-trump-eu-referendum-talks-michel-barnier
Well, it makes a change from 'Dementia cure' stories.....
No objections to seeing her face a few more times.
I doubt that brexitteers on PB would be willing to take to the streets and fight over Brexit.
"Some ministers wonder whether there is still a reluctance among senior civil servants to speak hard truths to the key British players. Others say that May’s lack of clubbability and reluctance to engage with other European leaders has meant she has not been confronted with the reality of the EU’s concerns. Yet most point to a lack of leadership – a weakened prime minister who, in the view of some inside Whitehall, is more reliant than ever on the right wing of her party for survival. Compromise has become a dangerous word. As far as some inside the machine can tell, she “remains on Plan A”, despite the hints of compromise from Davis and the chancellor, Philip Hammond."
"“If the government engineers a situation in which its negotiating position is the same as what parliament is looking for, that isolates the headbangers and those who won’t compromise,” said one senior Tory MP. “I would lay it out to other members of the cabinet who take a different view, and say, ‘look, sooner or later we will lose a vote in the Commons. The election result means you can’t have the Brexit you wanted.’"
"If we can’t do this in parliament, we will end up losing votes, confidence will be lost in the Conservative party, sooner or later something titanic will happen. We will have no credibility whatsoever and we will be thrown out in a 1997 situation.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/15/indecision-brexit-eu-negotiations-diplomats-no-compromise
Imo Cameron's no contingency planning is what has really weakened us.
He pulled the same trick on SIndy ref too. Grossly irresponsible.
Redistribution of wealth, innit.
Also, we don't know what the terms of "Remain after all" would be. In all likelihood they would be worse that what we currently have, yet alone Dave's deal, and if the rebate goes the obvious play is to make a big deal about voting for 'additional EU contributions from your taxes in a time of austerity'.
"Let's not give the EU another Xmillion a week and strip it from our NHS."
If the Tories can blow a 20%+ lead in 6 weeks, what makes you think a wafer thin margin for Remain in the latest polls (if, indeed, there really is one) would hold?
The lesson of GE2017 should be ringing loud in the ears of anyone wanting another/early vote on anything, but it isn't.
The headbangers have been ranting about the EU for 40 years, and when the rubber hits the road their grand plan for leaving is " "
Brexit will be lucky to hang on to the third of voters that Kieran suggests currently believe in it.
If you think politics is toxic now, just wait until the people are asked to vote on the same question for a second time.
This is all irrelevant.
Article 50 has been submitted, and cannot be withdrawn.
Oh and the money for the NHS was in a unicorns saddllebags! And ‘we didn’t mean it anyway!'
F1: my post-race analysis is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/united-kingdom-post-race-analysis-2017.html
If I had to choose between legal wrangling and staffing issues, I'd chose the latter every time...
At present I think they'd be well up for it. After another year of fractious negotiations with an indecisive partner, I'm not sure. There comes a point where someone says "I'm not really sure if I want to be with you" for the 177th time and gets the reply "well, push off then".
Without pragmatic and realistic answers to all these questions how does anyone think it is even remotely going to happen
(Note that’s labour with a small l!)
Incidentally, I’m becoming increasingly suspicious of our headline employment statistics. They really don’t seem to be related to what is actually happening.
Evidence?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/17/tory-party-reputation-new-leader
Phrase of the year is "we are where we are" and so with Brexit. We are in the middle of a rubber dinghy rapids ride and, sadly, we can't ask to be let off half way down.
Politics is getting toxic whatever happens with Brexit, Brexit is just a lightning rod for peoples anger. If it was possible to have a Brexit in line with the leave campaign (£350m per week for the NHS, regain control of immigration, control of laws, no economic impact, new trade deals, still able to retire in Spain etc), then it could defuse the situation. But as we all know the reality of Brexit is far more complicated than that. There will either be compromises with the EU (seen as betrayal of the leave vote) or a very hard no deal Brexit with associated economic harm at least for a while (that will be seen as the EU punishing us deserving retribution of some sort).
My own view is that the genie cannot be put back in the bottle and they have to get on with Brexit in much the way that they are doing. IE the decision has to be seen through. For now.
I think I'll watch Attack The Block today - the review looks good. Cheers!
People blame the Cons, or Dave for holding it and despite it delivering a decision I disagreed with, I cannot condemn them giving the public a say on the issue. Disagreeing with referendums in principle is another matter.
Equally, I wouldn't have a problem with another one. It is all democracy. Wanting fewer public votes, or just the ones that work out for you, does seem to be classic Brexiter cake and eat it strategy.
So if we discount the people and discount the politicians who makes the decisions ?
It could very well happen! Nobody knows what Britain's status will be in 2 years' time.
The backlash against Brexit as it turns to ashes in the mouths of the Leavers will be pretty unforgiving.
It's not perfect, and I wish there was more export activity (and less import activity), but the economy has defied naysayers over the years. How many recessions has Uncle Vince predicted since 2010?
** things such as:
The economy / stock market / house prices would collapse
Foreign workers would flee Britain
Millions of refugees would move unhindered to Britain
There would be attacks on foreigners living in Britain
A read back of the PB threads after the Leave vote shows Reaminers claiming those things were already happening. Some of whom really should be ashamed about the eagerness they were pedeling fake news.
1. Someone emerges as the dominant figure and subdues everyone else.
2. The squabbling continues indefinitely without resolution.
3. The recess makes everyone calm down and things proceed fairly peacefully.
4. Someone gets fed up and resigns.
5. Ultimately the Tories feel that the disruption of a leadership eleciton is less than the squabbles, and calls one to get a decisive leader.
1 seems unlikely - too many strong personalities who feel inches away from the top.
2 is possible but will ultimately lead to both a very messy Brexit and Tory catastophe.
3 is quite likely in the short term, but the Conference and the Brexit negotiations will reignite everything in Septembet/October.
4 seems plausible. Hammond's comments are brutally outspoken, and if people ignore him and just carry on briefing against him, it's easy to see him quitting. That almost certainly leads to 5.
5 - maybe.
Dunno. What do Conservatives here expect, or do they see other possibilities? Genuine question, with betting implications.
Perhaps May should demonstrate there is still life by sacking someone?
They know their only hope is to delay things and muddy the water. So they support everything the EU negotiators say, invent words like 'hard Brexit' and say we must have a plan that has been agreed by Uncle Tom Cobleigh and all.
It's transparent, it's predictable and it's a test for how genuine a democracy we are.
As an old git, I've seen these sort of shenanigans before. It's why politics has a bed name. Oh, for some honesty.
Sigh.
https://twitter.com/bethrigby/status/886849323002204162
The solution might have been some kind of threshold, so that it was clear that the result was the settled will of the people (a 52-48 result is not the settled will).
Personally, Osborne was right, a referendum was a "crazy idea".
That feels like it would work for all parties.
A) Brexit was always difficult /impossible given the two year process.
C) Vote Leave made impossible promises to win the vote
D) A serious lack of talent at the top of politics
E) Fundamental weaknesses in the UK position
All of the above or something else?
And Mr M, I’m delighted to see that your family members are now back in work. ‘For those who would work, ’tis hard to want. And wander for employ’ as a song has it.
The powers-that-be find this intolerable and delay by all means the opening of parliament. Using legal challenges, complaining that a politician lied and therefore it's invalid, predicting doom and disaster and demanding a re-run of the ballot.
Even when parliament is re-opened, using the HoL to stop all bills that haven't been gerrymandered, demanding that the minority parties have equal votes, and running scare stories on the BBC in the vain hope that we "will come to our senses." in essence making the country ungovernable
At the first bad opinion poll, the protests will reach a crescendo. We need a new GE to break the deadlock will go the cry.
Undemocratic? Not us?
A govt of national unity led by Hammond, Soubry, Chukka and Nikkla ? That would be quite a lot of "events"..
You're not up to date:
' Campaigners opposed to the HS2 high speed rail network have seized on claims the project will cost double the official estimate.
The claims HS2 will cost £111 billion, twice as much as the official £55.7 billion figure being used by Government and HS2 Ltd, were made in the Sunday Times newspaper.
The claims relate to an estimate prepared by Michael Byng which was commissioned by the Department for Transport. '
http://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/claims-hs2-cost-set-double-13338663