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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why people voted Labour or Tory at the general election
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Just imagine if Corbyn or Momentum are allowed to present the same manifesto again, especially up against a new Conservative Leader in a post Brexit era.. Something that the PCP are no doubt pondering right now....
You are wrong to immediately assume that the Labour party will automatically be more electable, or even more likely to become the largest party in a post Corbyn era when its equally obvious that neither May, Davis, Johnson or Hammont will be their opponents at the next GE.
Up to a point, Lord Copper - Corbyn was also a strong motivator of Labour voters (13%, third highest) - so maybe the two go hand in hand - Labour voters rally round a leader who motivates Tories to vote against him......
I think we can file the rest of the hypothesis ('all things being equal') under 'wild speculation'.......
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/886385153563426817
And literally untrue – surely one of Labour's core values is to stand up for minorities of various sorts.
* https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/23/no-religion-outnumber-christians-england-wales-study
I think a pattern is emerging.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-40622273
I wonder if as many as 24.5% of respondents would go for that?
58% don't want to be in the Single Market, 27% do.....
Where else will the Conservative Party find its new leader if not from the senior members of the Cabinet? It is in government so does not have the luxury of promoting a promising junior minister straight into Number 10. The last few leaders to take over in government were Jim Callaghan (Chancellor and former Home and Foreign Secretary), Gordon Brown (Chancellor) and John Major (Foreign Secretary and former Chancellor). And because Theresa May is too weak to reshuffle the Cabinet, its senior members are likely to be the same in two years time as now.
The only ways the Conservatives escape is if a deal is stitched up where Amber Rudd finds a safe seat -- probably Maidenhead where Theresa May will be standing down, or the Chancellor falls on his sword because he suddenly realises that he too works in the overpaid public sector where even a woman can carry a red box, thus enabling a reshuffle.
Ayn Rand
Suggests Brexit not that significant for Labour voters?
And also that the manifesto and policies were a clear positive for Labour.
Logically then they should keep them for next time around.
Remaining in the customs union is utterly pointless if we have left the SM, which is why even the EEA members are not members of the customs union. The fact that EEA members are not in the CU, yet somehow manage to trade effectively with the EU without massive problems at their borders, demonstrates quote clearly that being outside the CU is not going to create unsolvable logistical problems after Brexit.
BTW the wording in the poll is completely incorrect and misleading.
The shenanigans at the moment are pathetic.. the greasy pole and all that.
https://www.gov.uk/government/history/past-prime-ministers
Quite surprised the anti-Labour reason is 1 point ahead of the anti-Conservative reason.
F1: I'm afraid my tip isn't the most thrilling: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/united-kingdom-pre-race-2017.html
On the plus side, I did have an 8 winner (effectively, it was 26 each way for pole for Raikkonen) pre-practice.
I cannot see May enjoying the conference season. Surely she is toasted enough already?
Blair got this
Cameron got this
May, Corbyn not so much.
The Labour party takes action against prominent members who express/endorse antisemitic views, such as Ken Livingstone and Naz Shah.
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/napoleons-army-may-have-suffered-from-the-greatest-wardrobe-malfunction-in-history-92535444/
In any case, the EU27 will be making the decisions - the 4 freedoms are fundamental to the EU (and EEA membership) and all 4 need to be accepted without caveats for a soft Brexit.
The seeds for Brexit were sown in autumn 1992 when the UK crashed out of the EEM. Its economy has not been fit to join the Euro (i.e. worse than Spain et al) and hence the UK has been on the outer fringe of the EU ever since. Look at how many Spanish companies now run or sell services to the UK - BAA/BA/CAF/Santander.
It made a change from the grim misery and support for the establishment offered by the other parties and by Labour in 2015.
I'm beginning to realise the penny will never drop for you poor souls.
"Mrs May is still in office because her party fears what it might do to itself in a chaotic and vicious Tory leadership contest. There is no widely agreed candidate to replace her as prime minister. There is no name that could be put to the cabinet and receive overwhelming support as the next occupant of Number 10."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/16/theresa-may-could-still-have-a-future---as-a-human-sponge
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4027310/delusional-tony-blair-slammed-for-claiming-eu-wants-to-do-a-deal-on-migrants-to-block-brexit/
The polling is saying is that Brexit wasn't the main issue for Labour voters..
Doesn't mean they don't care about it.
Tbh that doesn't surprise me that much. If you really hated brexit you'd vote lib dems and the election didn't really focus all that much on Brexit.
In which case I prefer the workers Brexit to the bosses Brexit.
What stands out for me is how much of the Conservative vote was anti-Labour or anti-Corbyn. The equivalent among Labour supporters is much lower. Labour have serious brand problems.
https://twitter.com/KateHoeyMP/status/886214644389621760
It doesn't matter so much what people think now; it will matter hugely come 2019, when the bad news facing us will be all too clear.
Indeed I was thinking yeterday that the middle class's traditional support for the Tories rests principally on trusting their safer hands on the economy and otherwise wanting to be left alone. Consequently the Tories get in when they focus in economic competence, and get turfed out whenever Tories delude themselves that the support they get indicates desire for all the other Tory-political stuff, which in reality few people want. Labour and Tory being pretty much level in middle class support right now is striking.
The Tories' biggest problem right now is that their political obsession with the EU has once again led them to wander away from managing the economy.
Corbyn's Labour do better in real campaigns. Outside of the campaign polls flatter the Tories.
Would be rather ironic if you started to draw comfort from the polls that deceived you so recently.
Would you buy a reformed CAP from Mr Blair?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/06/theresa-may-rip-up-human-rights-laws-impede-new-terror-legislation
So, I voted for the anti-Brexit, Rupa Huq, in Ealing Central and Acton (with apologies to Topping and Nunu).
One reason exam pass rates went up year on year is that teachers and pupils became far more sophisticated in exam technique. We coffin-dodgers were expected to learn maths, say, or history, and then answer whatever questions were thrown at us.
These days, teachers teach narrowly to the test and pupils are drilled into how to analyse questions to provide exactly what is demanded -- even if they know nothing. If the question is about triangles but you can remember neither geometry nor trigonometry, then before skipping to the next question, at least draw a flaming triangle because there will be 1 or 2 marks (out of 20) for that tiny part of the full, correct answer.
But I think there is an anti-labour vote that's solid regardless of the leader.