This is when "secular liberals" decide for themselves based on their own instints that "there was no way Morsi was going to submit himself to the will of the people in four years. "
I am not defending or excusing the overthrow of the democratically elected Morsi government. That was not the question.
The question was whether there would be civil war in Egypt. I said I didn;t think there would be, because there weren't sufficient people willing to go to war for the return of the Morsi government. I stand by that argument.
There may be civil war if there are no new elections, but that is a separate issue.Personally I very much doubt the army can hold onto power if there are not new elections.
Avery. You've just scored a hit at the Edinburgh fringe. I gave them your line about the mime version of the Vagina Monologue and they're calling for an encore.....
Tim I have no wish to discuss anything with you, I was just pointing out the hypocrisy of you attacking Richard Dodd for doing what you do all day every day.
I'm commenting on real economic and political policy, doddy was commenting on a speech that wasn't made. You remind me of the simpleton who used to post as Maggie Thatcher Fan, any relation?
Plus, there are certain differences between the two main parties. The bastions of Labour strength are health and education, which are soft, cuddly areas. For the Conservatives, the bastions are defence and law & order. Nobody's against educating children or healing the sick, but some are against certain aspects (or all) of the military/police.
In addition, Labour does delight in smearing (cf red rag, Draper/McBride, Alistair Campbell, Gordon Brown). The Conservatives are not saints but indulge in it less frequently.
Putting the IPSOS into the Lebo & Norpoth model gives a forecast for 2015.
Tory vote lead 6.4% Tory seat lead 43
And, still not an absolute majority. In 2010, Tories led Labour by 50 seats.
When you say rather loosely 'in 2010' is this before, after, or during the General Election? I think we should be told.
For a Governing party to be 10% adrift, with their Opposition struggling to break 40%, mid-term, as the country starts pulling out of a recession is by no means forlorn.
It's also worth bearing in mind the LD's won't be able to savage the Tories in quite the same way during the GE campaign.
Anyway, sorry to say that as a left-leaner I think EdM is pretty hopeless to be honest. He might be worse than Gordon Brown but I'm not sure that's actually possible.
LD's savaged the Tories in 2010 ? Which election did you follow ? The Lib Dems lost 5 seats !
Ed Miliband's best quality is his integrity and his courage. There is nothing false about him and this means that the right leaning press has to be especially venal in its attacks on him. The attacks concentrate upon his appearance and his perceived failure to come up with a raft of policies at this stage in the political cycle.
Cameron on the other hand has become Crosby's conduit and he is in danger of looking like a headless chicken as he dances around announcing measures designed only to make headlines.
I am not surprised that the Tories are the most disliked of all the parties.The austerity measures have affected the living standards of many people.the so called NHS reforms have created a sense of insecurity about a facet of life which is so important to everyone.
In the end voters will try to preserve the important things in life and no amount of unfair braying by the likes of the Evening Standard will alter the final result.
Is Tim related to Gerald Warner? On reading the Warner column in last week's Scotland on Sunday I realised it was the same guff Tim regurgitates on here day in and day out.
The truth that dare not speak its name is that Egypt probably wants to be a free, modern, prosperous secular state free of all the religious b*llocks that have dogged many countries in region for so long.
Why did the Muslim Brotherhood win the election then? The chances of the military holding free and fair elections look vanishingly slim now.
AIUI, the situation was as follows:
The Muslim Brotherhood had been around for decades, and spoke for large parts of the population. At times they were violently suppressed.
The Mubarak regime suppressed all other opposition groups as well, the only official party being the National Democratic Party. Some made deals with the Mubarak regime and NDP in order to survive. This was a period of infrequent and heavily biased, rigged elections.
After Mubrak's sudden downfall in 2011, the MB were the predominant organised group that was untarnished by Mubarak's regime. The MB played a significant part in the protests that led to the transition. The military lead the coup, and military man Tantawi is put in power
Violent protests in November 2011 leads Tantawi to call for speeded-up elections, with many details left to be decided. This does not give rival parties much time to organise on a large scale; indeed, Egyptian politics is beguiled by a plethora of small, disorganised parties, many of which do not operate on a national scale.
Morsi very narrowly wins the 2012 presidential election. Aided by many issue, including disquiet after el-Shater was barred from standing. Islamic-leaning parties win the majority of the vote.
Morsi starts ruling for the MB, not the general population. The new constitution is apparently a mess, although is accepted by a referendum on a low turnout. Persecution of ethnic minorities increases. Tourism plummets further. The economy slows.
Disquiet leads the army to step in once more, and Morsi is overthrown.
Basically, it is a mess. The sad fact is that Egypt worked better under Mubarak and the NDP for most of the time than it did under Morsi.
I cannot see a democratic way out of this - democracy sadly fails in such circumstances. Instead of a sudden, rushed route to democracy as there was in 2011-12, there need to be much more caution and thought. I support democracy, but rushing things might make things even worse.
Hopefully US coverage of the Egypt situation will improve next week with the launch of Al Jazeera America next Tuesday. They have undertaken a pretty successful talent search from CNN, MsNBC and CNBC among others.
All the shows on Current TV, the ultra liberal channel founded by Al Gore bought by Al Jazeera, are currently telling each other how great a ride it's been etc, as it disappears to make way for the new channel. All the programs are scrambling to find new outlets.
Current TV is not in HD at present which makes it hard to watch - hopefully they'll fix that soon.
''Any old dictator can hold elections. There is no way the army can hold free and fair elections that the Muslim Bortherhood might win''.
You are correct of course.
Strangely, I have a bit more confidence in the army than you on the basis of 'once overthrown, twice shy'.
However, you may very well be right that any elections the army did hold would not be free and fair, and if that is the case then civil war may well be a very serious threat down the line.
The question raised was whether civil war was imminent, however, and I said I didn't think it was. And I still don;t think it is.
One of the things that strikes me is that if the 2015 contest is virtually no change overall (at least between Con and lab) we should expect some two-way traffic in seats between the two main parties...
Which seats are possible Tory gains from Labour? Hampstead & Kilburn?
Why H&K when there are others ? Bangladeshi born candidate perhaps ?
My friend Monte Carlo (after 10000 runs) is now saying:-
Chance of hung parliament 80% Chance of Tory Majority 20% Chance of Labour majority 0% Chance the Tories lead in seats 93% Chance Labour lead in seats 7% Chance the Tories lead in votes 99.94%
Anyone seen Hunchman? I moved heavily into cash over the last two weeks, partly due to hunchman's posts. Normally, I don't follow the advice of random chaps on the internet, but I dunno, he had some persuasive points.
By the way, someone downthread said that hunchman recommended buying gold. Not true. I asked him if he thought gold stocks had turned the corner, and he replied yes. However, he doesn't seem to like gold in the med to longterm, and was recommending money market as the only safe haven.
Nasdaq and ftse currently down 1.8%, Tokyo closed 1.7% down, Russia over 2% down.
Egypt's political situation is a nigh on perfect example of the Alien versus Predator scenario (whoever wins, we lose). The army's killing large numbers of mostly unarmed civilians, but Morsi was hardly a model democrat. It's a little reported (think I caught a brief mention on Sky) fact that the Coptic Christians have again been attacked by the Muslim Brotherhood.
One of the things that strikes me is that if the 2015 contest is virtually no change overall (at least between Con and lab) we should expect some two-way traffic in seats between the two main parties...
Which seats are possible Tory gains from Labour? Hampstead & Kilburn?
Why H&K when there are others ? Bangladeshi born candidate perhaps ?
That perhaps, plus it was very close last time, and Glenda's personal vote evaporates...?
Egypt's political situation is a nigh on perfect example of the Alien versus Predator scenario (whoever wins, we lose). The army's killing large numbers of mostly unarmed civilians, but Morsi was hardly a model democrat. It's a little reported (think I caught a brief mention on Sky) fact that the Coptic Christians have again been attacked by the Muslim Brotherhood.
Under Saddam Hussain, Jews and Christians were safe as many of them would testify. So, he should have been allowed to stay. Why should a massacre or two matter ?
Mr. Surbiton, you appear to have ignored almost everything I wrote, such as "The army's killing large numbers of mostly unarmed civilians..." and "...whoever wins, we lose..."
Obviously I'm not condoning mass slaughter, but this isn't a one-sided story.
My friend Monte Carlo (after 10000 runs) is now saying:-
Chance of hung parliament 80% Chance of Tory Majority 20% Chance of Labour majority 0% Chance the Tories lead in seats 93% Chance Labour lead in seats 7% Chance the Tories lead in votes 99.94%
This one has to be preserved. It gives the impression of Southam's US election prediction.
This one is as believeable as Nate Silver's 2010 prediction.
''Under Saddam Hussain, Jews and Christians were safe as many of them would testify. So, he should have been allowed to stay. Why should a massacre or two matter ? ''
Morsi very narrowly wins the 2012 presidential election. Aided by many issue, including disquiet after el-Shater was barred from standing. Islamic-leaning parties win the majority of the vote. Morsi starts ruling for the MB, not the general population. The new constitution is apparently a mess, although is accepted by a referendum on a low turnout. Persecution of ethnic minorities increases. Tourism plummets further. The economy slows.
Part of the problem here is the fashion for "democracies" based around a strong President. The outcome of a Presidential election is necessarily a binary affair, whereas a Parliamentary election can be more messy - reflecting real complexity in public opinion.
Transposing to the British political scene, it is quite likely that the Tories would have won a UK Presidential election in 2010, giving them much more freedom then they have with the Coalition following a Hung Parliament.
Also, with a Parliamentary system, an unpopular political leader can be forced to resign, and yet the government continue - as with Thatcher's defenestration. With a Presidency it is very hard to force the President out without a coup.
Basically, if Morsi had been a Prime Minister at the head of a Muslim Brotherhood government drawn from the legislature, then there is a decent chance the protests earlier in the year would have lead to his resignation, and replacement by a Muslim Brotherhood PM who was more willing to bend to opposition public opinion.
''Under Saddam Hussain, Jews and Christians were safe as many of them would testify. So, he should have been allowed to stay. Why should a massacre or two matter ? ''
You support the war in Iraq?
Knew there'd be one somewhere.
I certainly did not support the war in Iraq. I resigned from the Labour Party and have in this website referred to Blair as a war criminal many times.
The point I was making is that apologists for the Military dictators are coming up with excuses why the killing was justified.
My friend Monte Carlo (after 10000 runs) is now saying:-
Chance of hung parliament 80% Chance of Tory Majority 20% Chance of Labour majority 0% Chance the Tories lead in seats 93% Chance Labour lead in seats 7% Chance the Tories lead in votes 99.94%
Egypt's political situation is a nigh on perfect example of the Alien versus Predator scenario (whoever wins, we lose). The army's killing large numbers of mostly unarmed civilians, but Morsi was hardly a model democrat. It's a little reported (think I caught a brief mention on Sky) fact that the Coptic Christians have again been attacked by the Muslim Brotherhood.
Under Saddam Hussain, Jews and Christians were safe as many of them would testify. So, he should have been allowed to stay. Why should a massacre or two matter ?
Iraq is not Egypt, and Mubarak, for all his legion faults, was not as mad as Saddam.
For instance the 1979 Egypt-Israel peace process was heeded by both sides during all of Mubarak's time in power, with one or two minor exceptions. Things have shifted slightly for the worse since 2011 in that regard.
The plight of the Christians and other minorities in Egypt since 2011 should not be ignored.
I have my suspicions that the situation in Egypt would be much worse today if it were not for the ongoing Syrian crisis, which is sucking up fighters. Egypt's future could depend to a certain degree on what happens in Syria.
I thought that was the PB Tory argument against a house price bubble ten years ago. But now the same people are arguing it should be done again, this time with taxpayer subsidies, 0.5% interest rates falling real wages and devaluation of sterling
Oh dear, tim, the PB Lefties are not very good at reading the economy are they.
Housing price bubbles are caused by excessive credit supply. This was the case during the early noughties credit bubble blown up by Brown.
When such bubbles burst the inevitable consequence is a rapid fall in real wages and standards of living
Mervyn King politely described the consequences Labour's mismanagement of the economy when he spoke in Belfast in January of this year:
the inevitable correction of exuberance on the part of borrowers and lenders, the conditions for which were created by the failure to tackle the global imbalances that left most major countries with unsustainable exchange rates, unsustainable paths of consumption, saving and borrowing, and unsustainably low long-term real interest rates
In the current state of the economy under Osborne, there is the opposite of a credit supply bubble. Government, the wider public sector, financial institutions, private sector enterprises and households have all be deleveraging. In the housing and mortgage market, existing borrowers have been paying down loans faster than new borrowers have been taking them out.
Real wages are only now beginning to recover as a lagging response to GDP growth.
Sterling was devalued by Brown by over 20% in response to the financial crisis. Under Osborne Sterling has remained stable or grown in value slightly (3%).
The stimulus being provided by Osborne to the housing and mortgage finance markets is designed to halt a decline in credit supply, to mitigate barriers to house purchase imposed on first time buyers by credit constraint, to reverse a decline in housing construction and to stimulate liquidity and sales in the housing sales market.
Unlike Brown who allowed excessive credit supply to pump up a bubble at the top of the cycle, thereby causing the housing bubble to burst, Osborne is providing temporary stimulus at the bottom of the cycle. thereby causing a declining and stagnant market to stabilise and return to beneficial growth.
Mori is pretty good for Labour, though they'll be hoping Ed can regain his lead over Cameron in personal ratings sooner rather than later.
The figures above (and those Tim posted about 2010 Lib Dems) showing just how toxic the Tory brand is could indeed be decisive. Don't underestimate just how motivated (and tactically inclined) the anti-Tory coalition in Britain is, whether they're convinced by Ed or not.
Not the first time, incidentally, that the Tories and their media outriders have tried to create a "we're on the march, Miliband is in trouble" narrative out of thin air, only for the reality of polling to slap them in the face like a wet fish. PBTories have been like hyperactive kids for the last few days.
Morsi very narrowly wins the 2012 presidential election. Aided by many issue, including disquiet after el-Shater was barred from standing. Islamic-leaning parties win the majority of the vote. Morsi starts ruling for the MB, not the general population. The new constitution is apparently a mess, although is accepted by a referendum on a low turnout. Persecution of ethnic minorities increases. Tourism plummets further. The economy slows.
Part of the problem here is the fashion for "democracies" based around a strong President. The outcome of a Presidential election is necessarily a binary affair, whereas a Parliamentary election can be more messy - reflecting real complexity in public opinion.
Transposing to the British political scene, it is quite likely that the Tories would have won a UK Presidential election in 2010, giving them much more freedom then they have with the Coalition following a Hung Parliament.
Also, with a Parliamentary system, an unpopular political leader can be forced to resign, and yet the government continue - as with Thatcher's defenestration. With a Presidency it is very hard to force the President out without a coup.
Basically, if Morsi had been a Prime Minister at the head of a Muslim Brotherhood government drawn from the legislature, then there is a decent chance the protests earlier in the year would have lead to his resignation, and replacement by a Muslim Brotherhood PM who was more willing to bend to opposition public opinion.
Yep, but religious fundamentalism plays a big role as well, especially as it sees itself above public opinion. "The public are wrong, the ancient book I have in my hand says so."
Cheshire Farmer.. I know its difficult for you.. but please stop lying.. I was asking when the speech was going tp be made..no dscussion or comment about content.. as it never took place. Now where did Dave go on his date night.?
Egypt's political situation is a nigh on perfect example of the Alien versus Predator scenario (whoever wins, we lose). The army's killing large numbers of mostly unarmed civilians, but Morsi was hardly a model democrat. It's a little reported (think I caught a brief mention on Sky) fact that the Coptic Christians have again been attacked by the Muslim Brotherhood.
Under Saddam Hussain, Jews and Christians were safe as many of them would testify. So, he should have been allowed to stay. Why should a massacre or two matter ?
There were only 34 Jews left in Iraq by 2003 not even a subsample. Perhaps asking the Kurds or the Marsh Arabs might be a more reliable opinion poll
And even those 34 weren't very safe. For comparison, in 1900 there were 50,000 Jews in Baghdad alone.
The history of Jewish persecution in Iraq is long and exceptionally sad. The Palestinians are not the only group forcefully dispossessed of their lands in the region.
My friend Monte Carlo (after 10000 runs) is now saying:-
Chance of hung parliament 80% Chance of Tory Majority 20% Chance of Labour majority 0% Chance the Tories lead in seats 93% Chance Labour lead in seats 7% Chance the Tories lead in votes 99.94%
Osborne is pumping th bubble from historically high unaffordable house prices now.
More dual income families, longer working lives, decreased tax rate for lower earners, lower long term interest rates reducing monthly repayments. There is no magical reason why a particular wage - mortgage level should be taken as crucial.
Avery. You've just scored a hit at the Edinburgh fringe. I gave them your line about the mime version of the Vagina Monologue and they're calling for an encore.....
Read the links I posted up thread, this house price tactic is politics not economics.
tim, you appear to be trying to present changes in 10 year bond yields as a response to a government policy announced some months ago. I'm not sure what you're practicing but I dont think it's good politics or good economics.
Yet Osborne boasted growth was established in 2010 And you want to blame Labour for his house price pumping using the taxpayer? Read the links I posted up thread, this house price tactic is politics not economics.
No.
I want to blame Labour for the unprecedented mess that they left for the Tories to clean up. I expect George Osborne to do a much better job than Gordon Brown managed at putting us on a sound financial footing, and I expect him to do it in a way that socialist simpletons won't understand. I expect you to be one of those simpletons and I expect you to inexorably and repetitively attack him for his methods.
Hang on are the Labour goons on here really complaining about a house price bubble?
Yes of course the Tory policy is bonkers trying to keep the bubble inflated, but it was under Labour that house prices tripled in a few years. If they let house prices fall then the banks would go bust and the taxpayer would be probably end up on the hook anyway.
The current policy is the wrong one, but it is in response to the complete mess in housing that Labour left behind with no real clear way out without a lot of pain.
Ricardohos, you are clearly rather slow on the uptake.
In the 2010 General Election, the Tories got 308 seats and Labour got 258 seats.
308 - 258 = 50.
Comprendo !
I know you seem a little excitable this afternoon, hopping like a gadfly across topics, slipping on facts and losing punctuation en route, but I was talking about mid-term polling versus GE results. Comprendo?
Bear in mind that the Conservatives gained 97 seats in 2010 (with the caveat about how you calculate those figures). To be where they are today following three tough years of attempting to drag the country out of the mire is by no means a forlorn position. As the Eurozone emerges from recession, growth improves and the housing market gains in strength the Conservative's meme will emerge strongly.
As a left-leaner I have a regrettable hunch (a la Michael Brunson 08th April 1992) that in 2015 the Conservatives might win outright.
I've always thought that a benevolent dictatorship is the best form of government. Unfortunately, dictators are virtually never benevolent.
The MB are in the majority, and probably feel that democracy was a route to the power unfairly denied them so far. So, of course, they'll govern on that basis. The Copts would support any government that left them alone, and the secularists seem to be disorganised.
Within Islam, there remains a major split; it's not long ago, that Shia GPs in Karachi were being assassinated by Sunni death squads, and in Iraq, they're getting on well together, aren't they?
I know very little about Egypt, or Islamic theology, but I can't even think of a simplistic solution.
We're very keen on exporting our way of thinking to other countries. When the Victorians did that, they were accused of being imperialistic. Now, it's regarded as being for their own good. I expect Cecil Rhodes believed that too.
Mr. CD13, Hiero of Syracuse could be cited as a benevolent dictator. Likewise the Golden Age emperors (though Marcus Aurelius loses much respect for his idiocy allowing Commodus to succeed him).
Hang on are the Labour goons on here really complaining about a house price bubble?
Yes of course the Tory policy is bonkers trying to keep the bubble inflated, but it was under Labour that house prices tripled in a few years. If they let house prices fall then the banks would go bust and the taxpayer would be probably end up on the hook anyway.
The current policy is the wrong one, but it is in response to the complete mess in housing that Labour left behind with no real clear way out without a lot of pain.
House prices weren't falling when the policy was announced and are rising at three times wages growth before the really mad bits click in.
Three times wages growth? What's that then three times zero? How does that compare to the absolutely enormous growth in house prices under Labour?
It's a bad policy since house prices need to fall, but the problem of the economy being based around debt and rising house prices was entirely created by Labour.
The Tories are running with since they don't want to be blamed for the whole thing collapsing (which it will eventually), but who can blame them when it is clearly Labour's fault.
In 97 houses were cheap, debt was low and the economy was growing, before Gordon "not quite the full ticket" Brown got his hands on the controls.
First the dip that didn't double Now he's wishing on a bubble Chances are slim We'll ever hear tim Accept that Labour caused this trouble
Yet Osborne boasted growth was eoustablished in 2010 And you want to blame Labour for his house price pumping using the taxpayer? Read the links I posted up thread, this house price tactic is politics not economics.
Thank you for the link you posted to Frances Coppola's blog. I was first directed there by our much missed House economist, Nicomachus, but had lost the link. So I am very pleased to be given it again.
You realise Frances is a professional singer and singing teacher, rather than an eocnomist don't you tim?
You can find this out by clicking the "About this blog" tab. Alternatively you can just read her article, "The illusory housing recovery".
She does appear to be out of tune with our George though.
"Bubble Boy" due to be repeated ad infinitum..is there a bookie around to take the numbers of repeats in the next few weeks..got to be some betting opportunity..
There has been an excellent 3 part story on Turkey on R4 recently. Seriously, it is worth a listen. One of the episodes focussed on the differences between the secular state in Attaturk Turkey and the situation in Egypt.
Apparently when the PM of Turkey went to Egypt he was, as an Islamist, extremely popular with the Muslim Brotherhood and their supporters but they simply did not get or relate to the need for a secular state. Events over the last few months have not only proved the PM right (although he has some problems of his own) but the wisdom of the author of the program.
I don't believe that Morsi was a democrat in anything like our sense. On the other hand he was elected. The state is simply not strong enough to stand independently of any government. I find it difficult to see a way out of this. The army are digging holes for themselves. I don't think we are on the right side but there may not be one.
Hang on are the Labour goons on here really complaining about a house price bubble?
Yes of course the Tory policy is bonkers trying to keep the bubble inflated, but it was under Labour that house prices tripled in a few years. If they let house prices fall then the banks would go bust and the taxpayer would be probably end up on the hook anyway.
The current policy is the wrong one, but it is in response to the complete mess in housing that Labour left behind with no real clear way out without a lot of pain.
Osborne failed to maintain the growth he inherited, due in no small part to his small-state fantasy economic ideology, so he's reverting to the policies that caused the mess in the first place, namely bubbles based on borrowing.
Hang on are the Labour goons on here really complaining about a house price bubble?
Yes of course the Tory policy is bonkers trying to keep the bubble inflated, but it was under Labour that house prices tripled in a few years. If they let house prices fall then the banks would go bust and the taxpayer would be probably end up on the hook anyway.
The current policy is the wrong one, but it is in response to the complete mess in housing that Labour left behind with no real clear way out without a lot of pain.
Osborne failed to maintain the growth he inherited, due in no small part to his small-state fantasy economic ideology, so he's reverting to the policies that caused the mess in the first place, namely bubbles based on borrowing.
That's not Labour's fault.
Eh? So the economy was sustainably growing in 2010 with having had no bubbles based on borrowing?
Mori is pretty good for Labour, though they'll be hoping Ed can regain his lead over Cameron in personal ratings sooner rather than later.
The figures above (and those Tim posted about 2010 Lib Dems) showing just how toxic the Tory brand is could indeed be decisive. Don't underestimate just how motivated (and tactically inclined) the anti-Tory coalition in Britain is, whether they're convinced by Ed or not.
Not the first time, incidentally, that the Tories and their media outriders have tried to create a "we're on the march, Miliband is in trouble" narrative out of thin air, only for the reality of polling to slap them in the face like a wet fish. PBTories have been like hyperactive kids for the last few days.
Do you think that this Mori poll will be even close to the 2015 election result?
Hang on are the Labour goons on here really complaining about a house price bubble?
Yes of course the Tory policy is bonkers trying to keep the bubble inflated, but it was under Labour that house prices tripled in a few years. If they let house prices fall then the banks would go bust and the taxpayer would be probably end up on the hook anyway.
The current policy is the wrong one, but it is in response to the complete mess in housing that Labour left behind with no real clear way out without a lot of pain.
Osborne failed to maintain the growth he inherited, due in no small part to his small-state fantasy economic ideology, so he's reverting to the policies that caused the mess in the first place, namely bubbles based on borrowing.
That's not Labour's fault.
Eh? So the economy was sustainably growing in 2010 with having had no bubbles based on borrowing?
Sounds like complete claptrap to me.
If Osborne had sustained the economic growth he inherited, he wouldn't have to resort to dangerous noughties style bubble-blowing.
Seems to be his new name for the Chancellor. I think it may be more apt for tim himself.
Cheers for that; appreciated. I stuck it into Google and apparently it's related to severe combined immunodeficiency (bubble boy disease) which a genetic disorder which results in vulnerability to infectious diseases. There was a 1976 film about it starring John Travolta.
Right, so tim thinks George Osborne is John Travolta. That's cleared that one up. Obvious when you think about it.
Hang on are the Labour goons on here really complaining about a house price bubble?
Yes of course the Tory policy is bonkers trying to keep the bubble inflated, but it was under Labour that house prices tripled in a few years. If they let house prices fall then the banks would go bust and the taxpayer would be probably end up on the hook anyway.
The current policy is the wrong one, but it is in response to the complete mess in housing that Labour left behind with no real clear way out without a lot of pain.
Osborne failed to maintain the growth he inherited, due in no small part to his small-state fantasy economic ideology, so he's reverting to the policies that caused the mess in the first place, namely bubbles based on borrowing.
That's not Labour's fault.
Eh? So the economy was sustainably growing in 2010 with having had no bubbles based on borrowing?
Sounds like complete claptrap to me.
If Osborne had sustained the economic growth he inherited, he wouldn't have to resort to dangerous noughties style bubble-blowing.
So you are actually trying to claim the economy was in good shape in 2010 with low debt and no housing or credit bubble? Not to mention a massive and growing government deficit. Even Ed Balls wouldn't try and claim that with a straight face.
Hang on are the Labour goons on here really complaining about a house price bubble?
Yes of course the Tory policy is bonkers trying to keep the bubble inflated, but it was under Labour that house prices tripled in a few years. If they let house prices fall then the banks would go bust and the taxpayer would be probably end up on the hook anyway.
The current policy is the wrong one, but it is in response to the complete mess in housing that Labour left behind with no real clear way out without a lot of pain.
Osborne failed to maintain the growth he inherited, due in no small part to his small-state fantasy economic ideology, so he's reverting to the policies that caused the mess in the first place, namely bubbles based on borrowing.
That's not Labour's fault.
Yawn.
Growth in 2010-11 was interrupted by market pressure on the deficit and debt levels of the EU peripheral countries and the lack of adequate cover for sovereign risk within the EU and ECB.
This pressure sparked what we call today the Eurozone crisis. It forced the EU and ECB, backed principally by Germany, to cover the sovereign risks of countries such as Greece, Portugal and Cyprus, with Spain and Italy seen as the market's next targets.
In repsonse the EU and ECB, backed by the IMF, imposed harsh austerity regimes on the defaulting countries in return for bailouts and continued market pressure on borrowing rates caused less onerous austerity regimes (and regime change!) to be imposed in Spain and Italy.
The net effect of the Eurozone Crisis was to collapse short term demand, force up unemployment and depress imports. Even Germany, which had grown by 4% in 2010 and 3% in 2011 was forced in to contraction. The Eurozone has only just tentatively emerged from a recession of 7 quarters starting at the end of 2011.
The impact of the Eurozone crisis went far beyond the borders of Europe. Growth rates in almost all major economies have fallen below the levels forecast in 2010.
You should be grateful that the UK, unique among major EU countries, managed to avoid falling into recession as a result of the Eurozone crisis.
I wonder whether people can still remember Peter Lilley's 'little lists' after all these years or whether it's the post Thatcher generation of IDS Hague Howard and Cameron who made the Tories toxic to another generation of voters?
SMukesh...as opposed to Labour who are surging ahead, must be down to that amazing speech from Ed yesterday .. oops, sorry, after two weeks away and an amazing car crash from one of his ministers, plus a blatant challenge from another,he didn't manage to make one, except to some stall holders in a South London market , bet some of his MP's were really pleased about that. I wonder if he pointed at anything in a shop when he was on holiday.
Average wage 1997 - £14,367 adjusted for inflation to 2010 value - £20,393 Average wage 2010 - £23,504 Increase in nominal terms - 64% adjusted for inflation 15.25%
Average house price 1997 - £63,176 Average house price 2010 - £164,000 Increase 160%
Mervyn King politely described the consequences Labour's mismanagement of the economy when he spoke in Belfast in January of this year:
the inevitable correction of exuberance on the part of borrowers and lenders, the conditions for which were created by the failure to tackle the global imbalances that left most major countries with unsustainable exchange rates, unsustainable paths of consumption, saving and borrowing, and unsustainably low long-term real interest rates
Mervyn King thought Gordon Brown was running "most major countries" and was responsible for "global imbalances"? Blimey. No wonder I'm skint.
I wonder whether people can still remember Peter Lilley's 'little lists' after all these years or whether it's the post Thatcher generation of IDS Hague Howard and Cameron who made the Tories toxic to another generation of voters?
Is that your chat-up line for tonight's dinner with the mysterious Edinburgh MP?
Mervyn King politely described the consequences Labour's mismanagement of the economy when he spoke in Belfast in January of this year:
the inevitable correction of exuberance on the part of borrowers and lenders, the conditions for which were created by the failure to tackle the global imbalances that left most major countries with unsustainable exchange rates, unsustainable paths of consumption, saving and borrowing, and unsustainably low long-term real interest rates
Mervyn King thought Gordon Brown was running "most major countries" and was responsible for "global imbalances"? Blimey. No wonder I'm skint.
DCL
You have got it wrong. It wasn't Mervyn who thought Gordon Brown was running "most major countries": it was Gordon himself.
I wonder whether people can still remember Peter Lilley's 'little lists' after all these years or whether it's the post Thatcher generation of IDS Hague Howard and Cameron who made the Tories toxic to another generation of voters?
I rather liked and admired Peter Lilley as a politican actually. Not his fault that low information voters didn't know their Town of Titipu.
Looking at the above graph it's not just the Tories that everyone hates. Labour are the least hated on -43 so I can't see what they've got to crow about.
Left wingers hate right wingers more than vice versa in general so it isn't surprising to see the right leaning parties fare worse than left leaning ones. I'd say you can also add on a few percent for being in government.
Basically everyone hates all politicians these days.
"One of the reasons – in fact the main reason – Britain has thus far trailed other major economies in economic recovery is that consumption has failed to come back after the shock of the banking crisis in the same way as it has elsewhere. Well now it appears to be, and the UK is therefore seeing relatively strong growth compared to others."
Comments
I am not defending or excusing the overthrow of the democratically elected Morsi government. That was not the question.
The question was whether there would be civil war in Egypt. I said I didn;t think there would be, because there weren't sufficient people willing to go to war for the return of the Morsi government. I stand by that argument.
There may be civil war if there are no new elections, but that is a separate issue.Personally I very much doubt the army can hold onto power if there are not new elections.
Mr. Easterross, I quite agree.
Plus, there are certain differences between the two main parties. The bastions of Labour strength are health and education, which are soft, cuddly areas. For the Conservatives, the bastions are defence and law & order. Nobody's against educating children or healing the sick, but some are against certain aspects (or all) of the military/police.
In addition, Labour does delight in smearing (cf red rag, Draper/McBride, Alistair Campbell, Gordon Brown). The Conservatives are not saints but indulge in it less frequently.
In the 2010 General Election, the Tories got 308 seats and Labour got 258 seats.
308 - 258 = 50.
Comprendo !
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2393077/Policeman-charged-leaking-plans-arrest-Anjem-Choudary-wife-worked-George-Galloway.html
Cameron on the other hand has become Crosby's conduit and he is in danger of looking like a headless chicken as he dances around announcing measures designed only to make headlines.
I am not surprised that the Tories are the most disliked of all the parties.The austerity measures have affected the living standards of many people.the so called NHS reforms have created a sense of insecurity about a facet of life which is so important to everyone.
In the end voters will try to preserve the important things in life and no amount of unfair braying by the likes of the Evening Standard will alter the final result.
- The Muslim Brotherhood had been around for decades, and spoke for large parts of the population. At times they were violently suppressed.
- The Mubarak regime suppressed all other opposition groups as well, the only official party being the National Democratic Party. Some made deals with the Mubarak regime and NDP in order to survive. This was a period of infrequent and heavily biased, rigged elections.
- After Mubrak's sudden downfall in 2011, the MB were the predominant organised group that was untarnished by Mubarak's regime. The MB played a significant part in the protests that led to the transition. The military lead the coup, and military man Tantawi is put in power
- Violent protests in November 2011 leads Tantawi to call for speeded-up elections, with many details left to be decided. This does not give rival parties much time to organise on a large scale; indeed, Egyptian politics is beguiled by a plethora of small, disorganised parties, many of which do not operate on a national scale.
- Morsi very narrowly wins the 2012 presidential election. Aided by many issue, including disquiet after el-Shater was barred from standing. Islamic-leaning parties win the majority of the vote.
- Morsi starts ruling for the MB, not the general population. The new constitution is apparently a mess, although is accepted by a referendum on a low turnout. Persecution of ethnic minorities increases. Tourism plummets further. The economy slows.
- Disquiet leads the army to step in once more, and Morsi is overthrown.
Basically, it is a mess. The sad fact is that Egypt worked better under Mubarak and the NDP for most of the time than it did under Morsi.I cannot see a democratic way out of this - democracy sadly fails in such circumstances. Instead of a sudden, rushed route to democracy as there was in 2011-12, there need to be much more caution and thought. I support democracy, but rushing things might make things even worse.
All the shows on Current TV, the ultra liberal channel founded by Al Gore bought by Al Jazeera, are currently telling each other how great a ride it's been etc, as it disappears to make way for the new channel. All the programs are scrambling to find new outlets.
Current TV is not in HD at present which makes it hard to watch - hopefully they'll fix that soon.
You are correct of course.
Strangely, I have a bit more confidence in the army than you on the basis of 'once overthrown, twice shy'.
However, you may very well be right that any elections the army did hold would not be free and fair, and if that is the case then civil war may well be a very serious threat down the line.
The question raised was whether civil war was imminent, however, and I said I didn't think it was. And I still don;t think it is.
Chance of hung parliament 80%
Chance of Tory Majority 20%
Chance of Labour majority 0%
Chance the Tories lead in seats 93%
Chance Labour lead in seats 7%
Chance the Tories lead in votes 99.94%
By the way, someone downthread said that hunchman recommended buying gold. Not true. I asked him if he thought gold stocks had turned the corner, and he replied yes. However, he doesn't seem to like gold in the med to longterm, and was recommending money market as the only safe haven.
Nasdaq and ftse currently down 1.8%, Tokyo closed 1.7% down, Russia over 2% down.
(ftse now 1.9% down as I wrote that.)
Wasn't he the chappy whose profile pix in the DT was of him in a Crombie with velvet collar?
I assume he removed his Fedora or Trilby for the snap.
Obviously I'm not condoning mass slaughter, but this isn't a one-sided story.
This one is as believeable as Nate Silver's 2010 prediction.
You support the war in Iraq?
Knew there'd be one somewhere.
Whilst I very much hope the Conservatives get most seats I remain uncertain as to how the election will play out.
Transposing to the British political scene, it is quite likely that the Tories would have won a UK Presidential election in 2010, giving them much more freedom then they have with the Coalition following a Hung Parliament.
Also, with a Parliamentary system, an unpopular political leader can be forced to resign, and yet the government continue - as with Thatcher's defenestration. With a Presidency it is very hard to force the President out without a coup.
Basically, if Morsi had been a Prime Minister at the head of a Muslim Brotherhood government drawn from the legislature, then there is a decent chance the protests earlier in the year would have lead to his resignation, and replacement by a Muslim Brotherhood PM who was more willing to bend to opposition public opinion.
The point I was making is that apologists for the Military dictators are coming up with excuses why the killing was justified.
For instance the 1979 Egypt-Israel peace process was heeded by both sides during all of Mubarak's time in power, with one or two minor exceptions. Things have shifted slightly for the worse since 2011 in that regard.
The plight of the Christians and other minorities in Egypt since 2011 should not be ignored.
I have my suspicions that the situation in Egypt would be much worse today if it were not for the ongoing Syrian crisis, which is sucking up fighters. Egypt's future could depend to a certain degree on what happens in Syria.
I thought that was the PB Tory argument against a house price bubble ten years ago.
But now the same people are arguing it should be done again, this time with taxpayer subsidies, 0.5% interest rates falling real wages and devaluation of sterling
Oh dear, tim, the PB Lefties are not very good at reading the economy are they.
Housing price bubbles are caused by excessive credit supply. This was the case during the early noughties credit bubble blown up by Brown.
When such bubbles burst the inevitable consequence is a rapid fall in real wages and standards of living
Mervyn King politely described the consequences Labour's mismanagement of the economy when he spoke in Belfast in January of this year:
the inevitable correction of exuberance on the part of borrowers and lenders, the conditions for which were created by the failure to tackle the global imbalances that left most major countries with unsustainable exchange rates, unsustainable paths of consumption, saving and borrowing, and unsustainably low long-term real interest rates
In the current state of the economy under Osborne, there is the opposite of a credit supply bubble. Government, the wider public sector, financial institutions, private sector enterprises and households have all be deleveraging. In the housing and mortgage market, existing borrowers have been paying down loans faster than new borrowers have been taking them out.
Real wages are only now beginning to recover as a lagging response to GDP growth.
Sterling was devalued by Brown by over 20% in response to the financial crisis. Under Osborne Sterling has remained stable or grown in value slightly (3%).
The stimulus being provided by Osborne to the housing and mortgage finance markets is designed to halt a decline in credit supply, to mitigate barriers to house purchase imposed on first time buyers by credit constraint, to reverse a decline in housing construction and to stimulate liquidity and sales in the housing sales market.
Unlike Brown who allowed excessive credit supply to pump up a bubble at the top of the cycle, thereby causing the housing bubble to burst, Osborne is providing temporary stimulus at the bottom of the cycle. thereby causing a declining and stagnant market to stabilise and return to beneficial growth.
The figures above (and those Tim posted about 2010 Lib Dems) showing just how toxic the Tory brand is could indeed be decisive. Don't underestimate just how motivated (and tactically inclined) the anti-Tory coalition in Britain is, whether they're convinced by Ed or not.
Not the first time, incidentally, that the Tories and their media outriders have tried to create a "we're on the march, Miliband is in trouble" narrative out of thin air, only for the reality of polling to slap them in the face like a wet fish. PBTories have been like hyperactive kids for the last few days.
The history of Jewish persecution in Iraq is long and exceptionally sad. The Palestinians are not the only group forcefully dispossessed of their lands in the region.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Jews_in_Iraq#Modern_Iraq
Now he's wishing on a bubble
Chances are slim
We'll ever hear tim
Accept that Labour caused this trouble
More dual income families, longer working lives, decreased tax rate for lower earners, lower long term interest rates reducing monthly repayments. There is no magical reason why a particular wage - mortgage level should be taken as crucial.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2394620/MEP-Julie-Girling-targeted-Spanish-Twitter-trolls-urging-holiday-boycott-Gibraltar-row.html
I want to blame Labour for the unprecedented mess that they left for the Tories to clean up. I expect George Osborne to do a much better job than Gordon Brown managed at putting us on a sound financial footing, and I expect him to do it in a way that socialist simpletons won't understand. I expect you to be one of those simpletons and I expect you to inexorably and repetitively attack him for his methods.
And I like to rhyme.
Yes of course the Tory policy is bonkers trying to keep the bubble inflated, but it was under Labour that house prices tripled in a few years. If they let house prices fall then the banks would go bust and the taxpayer would be probably end up on the hook anyway.
The current policy is the wrong one, but it is in response to the complete mess in housing that Labour left behind with no real clear way out without a lot of pain.
Bear in mind that the Conservatives gained 97 seats in 2010 (with the caveat about how you calculate those figures). To be where they are today following three tough years of attempting to drag the country out of the mire is by no means a forlorn position. As the Eurozone emerges from recession, growth improves and the housing market gains in strength the Conservative's meme will emerge strongly.
As a left-leaner I have a regrettable hunch (a la Michael Brunson 08th April 1992) that in 2015 the Conservatives might win outright.
I've always thought that a benevolent dictatorship is the best form of government. Unfortunately, dictators are virtually never benevolent.
The MB are in the majority, and probably feel that democracy was a route to the power unfairly denied them so far. So, of course, they'll govern on that basis. The Copts would support any government that left them alone, and the secularists seem to be disorganised.
Within Islam, there remains a major split; it's not long ago, that Shia GPs in Karachi were being assassinated by Sunni death squads, and in Iraq, they're getting on well together, aren't they?
I know very little about Egypt, or Islamic theology, but I can't even think of a simplistic solution.
We're very keen on exporting our way of thinking to other countries. When the Victorians did that, they were accused of being imperialistic. Now, it's regarded as being for their own good. I expect Cecil Rhodes believed that too.
It's a bad policy since house prices need to fall, but the problem of the economy being based around debt and rising house prices was entirely created by Labour.
The Tories are running with since they don't want to be blamed for the whole thing collapsing (which it will eventually), but who can blame them when it is clearly Labour's fault.
In 97 houses were cheap, debt was low and the economy was growing, before Gordon "not quite the full ticket" Brown got his hands on the controls.
You realise Frances is a professional singer and singing teacher, rather than an eocnomist don't you tim?
You can find this out by clicking the "About this blog" tab. Alternatively you can just read her article, "The illusory housing recovery".
She does appear to be out of tune with our George though.
I saw it, I admired, and I thought immediatlely and fondly of antifrank.
Magnificent. All he is lacking is bright red braces.
Apparently when the PM of Turkey went to Egypt he was, as an Islamist, extremely popular with the Muslim Brotherhood and their supporters but they simply did not get or relate to the need for a secular state. Events over the last few months have not only proved the PM right (although he has some problems of his own) but the wisdom of the author of the program.
I don't believe that Morsi was a democrat in anything like our sense. On the other hand he was elected. The state is simply not strong enough to stand independently of any government. I find it difficult to see a way out of this. The army are digging holes for themselves. I don't think we are on the right side but there may not be one.
That's not Labour's fault.
Sounds like complete claptrap to me.
1) your model is fatally flawed, and we should all laugh at you when you mention it
2) you are feeding it garbage
Because the probability of a Labour majority is not zero.
I wonder why it hasn't appeared.. ?
Calm down, dears, Labour still have a lead.
Len @Untie4Len
@ppeacock2 I'm thinking of rebranding as Unite Labour ... or UnLabour for short. @PlatoSays @UKLabour
Right, so tim thinks George Osborne is John Travolta. That's cleared that one up. Obvious when you think about it.
It's worth a try I suppose Gordon.
Growth in 2010-11 was interrupted by market pressure on the deficit and debt levels of the EU peripheral countries and the lack of adequate cover for sovereign risk within the EU and ECB.
This pressure sparked what we call today the Eurozone crisis. It forced the EU and ECB, backed principally by Germany, to cover the sovereign risks of countries such as Greece, Portugal and Cyprus, with Spain and Italy seen as the market's next targets.
In repsonse the EU and ECB, backed by the IMF, imposed harsh austerity regimes on the defaulting countries in return for bailouts and continued market pressure on borrowing rates caused less onerous austerity regimes (and regime change!) to be imposed in Spain and Italy.
The net effect of the Eurozone Crisis was to collapse short term demand, force up unemployment and depress imports. Even Germany, which had grown by 4% in 2010 and 3% in 2011 was forced in to contraction. The Eurozone has only just tentatively emerged from a recession of 7 quarters starting at the end of 2011.
The impact of the Eurozone crisis went far beyond the borders of Europe. Growth rates in almost all major economies have fallen below the levels forecast in 2010.
You should be grateful that the UK, unique among major EU countries, managed to avoid falling into recession as a result of the Eurozone crisis.
I wonder if he pointed at anything in a shop when he was on holiday.
Average wage 2010 - £23,504
Increase in nominal terms - 64% adjusted for inflation 15.25%
Average house price 1997 - £63,176
Average house price 2010 - £164,000
Increase 160%
You have got it wrong. It wasn't Mervyn who thought Gordon Brown was running "most major countries": it was Gordon himself.
Left wingers hate right wingers more than vice versa in general so it isn't surprising to see the right leaning parties fare worse than left leaning ones. I'd say you can also add on a few percent for being in government.
Basically everyone hates all politicians these days.
"Call me Bubbles, darling. Everybody does!"
https://www.google.co.uk/#bav=on.2,or.&fp=d024dfd3cbc9934d&q=bubbles+devere
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100025401/unbalanced-and-unsustainable-if-something-cannot-go-on-forever-then-it-will-stop/
"One of the reasons – in fact the main reason – Britain has thus far trailed other major economies in economic recovery is that consumption has failed to come back after the shock of the banking crisis in the same way as it has elsewhere. Well now it appears to be, and the UK is therefore seeing relatively strong growth compared to others."