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Bizarre times
Tbf Dave's done his best with the Cons.
Can Avery reassure a trembling, fevered populace that Hurricane Hunchman Hapocalypse - feared by what feels like 100 years - is not about to wipe all life from the face of the earth? On the hand, restoring Roger to his rightful place in the prognostication stakes would take much of the sting out of the calamity.
Via Mark Senior and antifrank
For the lovers of Scottish sub samples , Ipsos Mori has
Con 36% Lab 33% LD 15% SNP 14% UKIP 2%
According to Baxter, this subsample would result in the SNP getting one seat, the Lib Dems four, the Conservatives 22 and Labour the balance.
One of the Lib Dems' four seats would be Danny Alexander.
OTOH with a 5% difference UKIP\Con does that mean convicted kippers are also giving Cameron the thumbs down ? So he gets on barrel from the left and another from the right ?
Not really. Its all about subliminal messages isn't it?
Tory message - there's no easy way out of this.
Labour message - there is an easy way out of this.
Nobody 'likes' the former over the latter.
Surely the public is saying that they don't like austerity (shock horror) but all things considered Dave isn't doing a bad job of something unpalatable.
Nowadays the banks are all boarded up by bailliffs and their halls occupied by the Alternative Theatre Club of Goldsmiths University performing a mime version of The Vagina Monologues.
Leave you cameras in the left luggage office of Waverley Station and head North to the land of Easter Ross.
Traders are keeping their eyes peeled for a long list of data in the States this afternoon, including: CPI inflation; jobless claims; New York and Philadelphia manufacturing; industrial production; and the NAHB housing market index
Also Egypt.
http://www.hl.co.uk/shares/market-reports/market-reports/london-midday-markets-underwhelmed-by-strong-uk-retail-sales
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=rYAsst2TxPk
In two words, the Fed. We've just had some very, very strong US employment data, which is the Fed's trigger for starting to turn monetary policy around.
The process of weaning the addict off the smack of super easy money is about to start in America.
Which puts Mr Carney in rather an interesting position.
More prescriptions are given per person in Wales, which scrapped charges in 2007, than any other country in the UK.
Last year 74.2 million prescriptions were written, up from 48.8 million in 2002.
However the total cost of prescribed medicines has fallen to its lowest level in nine years - £557.5m
The new figures showing a 52.3% increase in prescriptions have reignited a political debate over Wales' free prescriptions policy.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-23713922
OT
A bit of fun for Dr Who fans
(Yes, very well, thank you! And you, I hope)
It state that the number of prescriptions has soared, but at the same time the bill for paying for them has dropped.
I guess that's because drugs become generic when patents expire and the cost of them plummets...???
http://action.electoral-reform.org.uk/ea-action/action?ea.client.id=1754&ea.campaign.id=22216
Mine's worth >
"In 2010 your vote was worth £0.73 to the parties.
That places you in the middle range for party spending. The big money was elsewhere, but you still got some interest.
£39,956.63 was spent in Wealden by all candidates in the last general election. 54,969 headed to the polls, leaving turnout at 71.58%.
Gordon Brown becomes prime minister. Worst financial crisis since the depression, worst recession for decades.
Coincidence??
If not, why on earth did you describe its rise as "inexorable"?
Or is this an example of a simple man using complicated, long words that he doesn't know the meaning of?
http://www.buzzfeed.com/nataliemorin/chinese-signs-that-got-seriously-lost-in-tranlsation
Alasdhair is the more Gaelic spelling.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BRtlOLtCUAA5-86.jpg:large
The Times of London @thetimes
Wizard of Oz premiered #onthisday in 1939. @thetimes reviewer didn’t think much of Technicolor… bit of a fad
My son has just got a place at Nottingham University. He had not applied for anything before his A level results came in because he was too worried about tempting fate. But he phoned them up this morning and he starts next term having got in on clearing.
I am delighted, of course, but it means that another one is about to fly the nest. We'll be left with one, who is doing her GCSEs next year. It's funny how your life can change in the space of a few hours.
Take today. The Visa UK Consumer Expenditure Index for July, usually a good early indicator of retail sales, reported that Retail Sales had fallen by -2.4% in July on June. Nearly two weeks later the ONS Retail Sales figures showed the monthly figures as up 1.1% (Vol) and 1.4% (Val), with annual growth of 4.9% (Val) and 3.0 (Vol) compared to Visa's report of an annual fall of -0.1%.
The UK is going through one of those very rare and usually short-lived periods of combined luck and high performance where everything not only goes right but betters expectations. A bit like all the run-outs, tosses, DRS reviews, rain breaks and tail ender innings all falling for England in cricket.
Take continued nervousness about Europe - yesterday's growth figures calmed but didn't convince - and odd things start happening. The pound is now trading at near $1.56 when most market analysts were expecting it to be in the $1.45-$1.50 range just a few weeks ago.
OK, London traders don't follow and react to the same news that we politicos follow, and they tend to be far more sensitive to sentiment and movements in other global markets, but all the good UK stats are definitely influencing trades and values
On the FTSE 100 and All Share indices, I don't see much evidence of anything but lilting in the August doldrums. But hunchman will surely be looking over the side of the boat and claiming to see Elliott waves..
Re why things are down, remember that most global stock markets are up between 10 and 20% in dollar terms this year (before dividends). So, we've had a strong year for share price growth, and a little breather should not be unexpected.
All 5 Respect cllrs in Bradford have temporarily resigned the party whip until George Galloway MP apologises for saying they are "disloyal"
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/multimedia/archive/00441/BROOKES_15_441440c.jpg
What a completely useless bit of reporting.
On the downside you'll soon be financially poorer ! What's he going to study ?
Just looked at volume trades on FTSE 100 components. Not much volume being traded outside of Vodafone (-2.45%) and Lloyds (-1.83%). Both are pre-sale/restructuring stocks.
Would be surprised if today's 1% Index fall wasn't reversed during week.
But then again hunchman may have it right!
I disagree. Have millions of Egyptians really got the stomach to fight for the reinstallation of a suffocating islamism?? I very much doubt it.
If the army does hold elections then what is happening now, whilst nasty, will be forgotten.
The truth that dare not speak its name is that Egypt probably wants to be a free, modern, prosperous secular state free of all the religious b*llocks that have dogged many countries in region for so long.
That is why the stakes there are so high.
The christian world has become the post christian world. Who's to say the same might not happen in the Islamic world?
I was just gently ribbing hunchman about his 'sell equities, buy gold' prediction at what now looks the top of the gold market, and the bottom of the equities one. I am always reminded of the wonderful Buffett quote on gold:
“I will say this about gold. If you took all the gold in the world, it would roughly make a cube 67 feet on a side…Now for that same cube of gold, it would be worth at today’s market prices about $7 trillion – that’s probably about a third of the value of all the stocks in the United States…For $7 trillion…you could have all the farmland in the United States, you could have about seven Exxon Mobils (XOM) and you could have a trillion dollars of walking-around money…And if you offered me the choice of looking at some 67 foot cube of gold and looking at it all day, and you know me touching it and fondling it occasionally…Call me crazy, but I’ll take the farmland and the Exxon Mobils.”
I don't know I didn't see their manifesto. But something clearly went very wrong. I doubt whether the army would have been able to do what they have done without the support of very significant sections of the people. And if you read the accounts of the crisis you learn they do have a good deal of support.
In essence I think both the brotherhood and the army have tried to hi-jack the population's aspirations. I kind of hope neither remain in power.
Gently ribbing hunchman about any of his predictions (and his belief in the usefulness of elliot waves / astrology) is one of my favourite pass-times on pbc
This morning you were posting about the fact that R Dodd had posted about something(according to you) 20 times. I hope you see the irony of it in this your probable 300th comment/link/retweet this month about Osborne/ housing bubble etc
I can't contradict you because I don;t know any. What is clear is that a very large section of the population didn't like the way the brotherhood were going. And that was in a religious direction.
The brotherhood weren;t exactly planning to submit themselves to the verdict of the people in four years, either. They were, as I understand it, planning to move the goalposts very significantly before that event.
"A few years ago someone pointed out the media’s habit of concentrating on white, photogenic girls, jumping for joy at the prospect of a place at Oxford or Cambridge, followed by a first-class honours degree, and eventually the opportunity to write countless blogs condemning their own privileged upbringing. Back then it was a cute and witty observation. But today it has become just another of the Left’s Mandatory Tweets, or LMTs.
The Left is now quite an exclusive club. In fact, it’s so exclusive, I’m not all that sure how you join. All I do know is people are frequently telling me I’m not a “real” member of the Left, so there must be a list, or application form or membership secretary knocking around somewhere. Anyway, once you finally do become a member, there are a number of strict rules. One is you must not, under pain of death, let anyone ever catch you saying anything nice about Tony Blair. Or bad about Tony Benn.
Another is that if you are a man, you have to buy yourself a plaid shirt. Unless you work for the Labour Party. Then it’s a dark suit and red tie. If you’re a woman working for the Labour Party you can wear what you want, but if you’re out in public you must press a mobile phone to your ear at all times. If you don’t, there is a danger you won’t be taken seriously. You must also be aware that working for the Labour Party doesn’t automatically make you a member of the Left. Remember, Tony Blair used to do stuff for the Labour party..." http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100231282/the-mandatory-tweets-of-the-left-a-users-guide/
Indeed. So why was there so much opposition to this government? they were only doing what it said on the tin. Why do so many support the army? (which the papers, buried in the story, say they do).
100% conceded.
Why didn't the hundreds of thousands protesting in the central square for days before the army coup just say to themselves 'oh well, we can vote this lot out in four years time, lets just go home, we've made our point.'
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/22/morsi-constitutional-declaration_n_2175651.html
Tories need better than -57 though.
Intriguingly both parties report worse figures than (2xVI)-100 implying non voters are more likely to say "dislike" than voters are to say "like"
It is difficult to do a similar analysis for the swingback from opinion polls, because opinion poll methodology has changed so much since the 1980s. Much of the apparent swingback from mid-term Opposition poll leads then was due to the simple fact that the opinion polls were not as good as they are today.
Tory vote lead 6.4%
Tory seat lead 43
Quite. There was no way Morsi was going to submit himself to the will of the people in four years.
That article suggests he called a de facto state of emergency before the army declared a real one.
Using Electoral Calculus, this predicts a seat distribution that is almost exactly the mirror image of 2010, with Labour short of a majority, and Conservative + Lib Dems also just short. The model isn't accurate to that degree, but it does point to the most likely outcome being another hung Parliament.
I have no wish to discuss anything with you, I was just pointing out the hypocrisy of you attacking Richard Dodd for doing what you do all day every day.
So, you gun down people !
RT @MarkReckons: Here's a thought. If Spitting Image came back now Owen Jones would probably have a puppet
The L&N forecast 3 months out is merely the final prediction. We can monitor the model's output long in advance of that...
Tough that it's not looking good for your party, at the moment, but that's politics.
For a Governing party to be 10% adrift, with their Opposition struggling to break 40%, mid-term, as the country starts pulling out of a recession is by no means forlorn.
It's also worth bearing in mind the LD's won't be able to savage the Tories in quite the same way during the GE campaign.
Anyway, sorry to say that as a left-leaner I think EdM is pretty hopeless to be honest. He might be worse than Gordon Brown but I'm not sure that's actually possible.
Neither did El Baradei mate, but that didn't stop him accusing Morsi of wanting to be Egypt's new pharoah (as per rightchuck's article).
A democratically elected government doesn't make the people elected democrats. Plenty of journalists and others were arrested for un-islamic activities and the like during Morsi's time in government.
A the end he was planning to bypass the judicial system and basically do what he wanted. If history is anything to go by, people like that tend to want to hold onto power whatever the people think
What is the obsession with 2010 LibDem voters? Unless they are different creatures from 1992 Tories and 2005 Labour voters, a great many will simply stay at home in 2015.
Meanwhile, the swings to Labour in the 2013 by-elections (not including Northern Ireland) have been 7.05% and 4.35% - both of which have brought the overall average down.
Which seats are possible Tory gains from Labour? Hampstead & Kilburn?
How many times just today have we heard about the squid pointing, Daves pimping of grieving relatives and "as a Father" ..