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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Whilst Mrs May is performing very badly, we should also rememb
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Whilst Mrs May is performing very badly, we should also remember and praise Corbyn’s contribution
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Comments
Well, quite.
Survation has Tory & Labour essentially tied ('Labour ahead' if it was them that had the 1 point lead.....but it isn't) and now we're believing YouGov?
The 'slaughter of the Tories' has yet to manifest itself in local election results....
Really....some of this shower you would't want next to you in the trench......
Since we're believing YouGov:
Con: 25
Lab: 36
SNP: 31
And as befits the party of 'bungs for the middle classes' Labour has a 12 point lead among ABC1, but tie with Con among C2DE:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pk6fh24cmh/TimesResults_170706_VotingIntention_W.pdf
http://68.media.tumblr.com/00c3aa4f01243bcc48a2282cef25e7e9/tumblr_osou4j63zg1u5f06vo1_1280.jpg
Be very careful, Eck, basing everything on one quarter's GDP figures....
https://www.tasc.ie/download/pdf/ireland_in_the_eu_noc.pdf
By Nat O'Conner on Slugger O'Toole - he concludes the balance of the argument favours Ireland remaining within the EU. - much better than the Never Never NEVER 'analysis' presented so far.....
One of our esteemed posters, IanB2 I believe, characterised the current situation elegantly as one in which the Conservatives were buying every day in office with two in opposition. The exchange rate may have changed though. It is starting to look like a one for three deal.
But the Party isn't dumb. It can see the main problem. I expect May to be out by Conference, probably to be replaced by Hammond. He won't turn fortunes around but he should, as you suggest, stop the bleeding.
The problem of Corbyn remains, however, as you indicate. Like many here, I vastly underestimated him and it appears obvious the Conservatives did too. All manner of attacks have failed. They need to try a new line.
Has anybody suggested policies to them?
Each time I turn on the TV I see the same handful of Labour MPs that I saw during the election campaign and I note that they are now facing far greater scrutiny. I spotted Andrew Neil openly mocking Jon Ashworth when discussing labour's spending plans earlier this week. The guy from Momentum on last week's This Week appeared to have lots of hope about progressing things further, but no idea how this would happen. I suspect that even he sees difficulties ahead.
The Tories meanwhile know that time is on their side. They are turning out all manner of unabashed MPs who appear to be up for the fight and right on top of the debating game. Mrs May herself came across surprisingly well during this week's PMQs. These are not the actions of a party frozen in the headlights.
The Tories hope, know or pray that something will turn up and are not going to waste what opportunities they have. They clearly recognise that they need to rethink some of their political arguments and take these to the electorate in a measured fashion that they will have time to digest. They will undoubtedly be learning how to better use social media for future campaigning and will also be using this opportunity to discredit, shoot or mimic as many of Labour's foxes as they can.
The Tories live to be in power, whereas as Corbyn has spent his life on the stump complaining about people in power. The British electorate remain in a febrile mood; hence anything is possible, but I do not see Mrs May going any time soon.
It will be obviously bad for Brexit to have a Tory leadership contest in 2018 with a new leader.
If she is to stay it should be until negotiations are complete.
I've never been to a party conference - but have heard several times the view that it's a chance to get rid of her/test for her to get through.
Why is that? Is just the fact that lots of Tories are in the same place and so can more easily plot?
Is it that it gives MPs a chance to hear from members - about their feelings on May and potential challengers?
I cannot see her enjoying conference, or engineering a comeback. That would require skill that she does not have.
The question for Tories is "frying pan or fire?", the risks of keeping her are high, the risks of a contest high also.
If I were a Corbynista, and I promise you I am not, I would want her to stay as long as possible, and certainly until Brexit negotiations are over.
Hard left in plot to oust dozens of Labour MPs
Deselection hitlist drawn as Corbyn takes 8‑point lead
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/hard-left-in-plot-to-oust-dozens-of-labour-mps-with-deselection-hitlist-gk70r6z8m
Tories shouldn't panic - the next election is a long way off - but, as TSE says, the issues go beyond the leader.
To win again, they will need to generate a wholesale renewal whilst in Government.
Tough ask.
FYI, Corbyn lost the last the GE, and usually those leaders do the honourable thing and resign rather than let a gullible media heap praise on them. I wouldn't mind, but Corbyn didn't even get close! Can we please have some perspective here, so May didn't get the majority the polls predicted, but just because Corbyn didn't reach the lowest level of 24% doesn't mean he won anything. Right now, the anti Corbyn vote remains stronger than ever...
I also imagine most members quite like their local MP and so wouldn't be keen on a deselection.
The only way I see to guarantee a Tory majority is for labour to split into two parties.
1) People don't like talk of 'hard Brexit', walking away without a deal with the EU. Unless you are a fanatical Brexiteer, you would support a more pragmatic approach, where you try to obtain the best deal without playing games. Theresa Mays approach to Brexit has been very childish and if media stories are true, even her cabinet colleagues are not happy. Brexit means Brexit, red lines to negotiation, saying you will walk away from negotiations etc. It is the UK that decided to leave the EU and the EU don't have to be helpful to the UK.
2) People are not happy with the state of the country after 7 years of the Tories being in office. They see a deterioration in public services that is making it very difficult in many arears. Lack of funding for NHS e.g difficult to get GP appointments, greater rationing being applied so people can't have knee/hip ops or cataract surgery. Lack of funding for schools with parents being asked for donations.
The Tories claim that their austerity has worked, but has it really ? National debt doubled since 2010. Annual budget deficit still running and not likely to be eliminated before 2025. The current GDP growth level is below most other countries. Pounds Sterling has reduced in value, as international investors lose confidence in the UK. If you are going through major change like Brexit, then you have to inspire confidence and so far the Tories look like a bunch of amateurs.
Labour and Liberal splits have crippled both parties at various times from the Boer War onwards.
The new Wavertree Labour executive also said Bentham’s remarks did not represent their position, adding that they were looking forward to working with Berger.
“We must disassociate ourselves from remarks made by one of our officers, who did not speak on behalf of the executive. The views he has expressed do not, in any way, represent the position of the [constituency Labour party] officers,” they said.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/06/labour-mps-critical-of-corbyn-fear-deselection-after-get-on-board-warning
Also Hammond as a remainer would be a disaster, if they do replace her it should be with Davis.
Though don't underestimate Moggmentum!
The election campaign has done catastrophic damage to the Tory standing with a lot of people. In the absence of a coherent policy programme and clear values for the public to latch on to, all that sticks in the mind is the social care charging, the winter fuel allowance and so on. Added to the continuing divisions over Brexit (still largely behind closed doors so not really visible to the general public who aren't paying close attention), and you don't have a vision of a confident party being well-led to a place that people want to go.
Against which, with Labour, there is at least that kind of vision and a policy platform to support it. It's a crap vision - of state bungs left, right and centre, to many people who don't deserve them and don't need them and of perverse incentives; of the creation of an appalling level of debt for the future, which would likely produce such a chilling effect on an already slowing economy that it would probably tip it into outright recession - but it's a vision all the same and in the absence of an alternative, and the absence of an adequate challenge (and to be able to make the challenge, you need to both have the arguments and the credibility to make it), Labour will continue to get far too much of a free pass.
At the moment the Tories need to forget about thinking about changing leaders for electoral purposes. The job of a Tory leader at the moment is dealing with the issues facing the country in Government and the only reason for seeking change would be if May is seen as grossly failing in that respect. Make a relative success of Government, combat the perception of division and the aura of Corbyn will fade. He is not somebody who will be combatted effectively by putting up a mirror image - somebody who can spout nonsense but spout it convincingly. Apart from anything else he has the best populist positioning at the moment. But more importantly because spouting nonsense convincingly is not a viable strategy for a Prime Minister (as opposed, potentially, to a prospective Prime Minister).
I'm sure most Tories believe that Corbyn would be found out within about 10 minutes if he became Prime Minister. However he has the advantage that he can win an election before that happens. The Tories replacing May with a new leader who can be found out in 10 minutes could never win an election.
On the flip side there is the real possibility of replacing her with somebody less popular than her, who is less able to actually run a Government, who will have the opportunity to make their own mistakes and reduce their popularity, and who will have to take responsibility for Brexit (and will have to specifically lay out a vision of Brexit to satisfy the Tory membership).
I am not sure "underestimated Corbyn" is quite right. All of the criticism of him is valid. What we missed, like Trump, is the mood of the electorate.
Everything said about Trump was true. He won anyway. And now he is demonstrating just how bad everyone knew he would be.
Corbyn would be as bad as everyone thinks. But he might win anyway.
You have to be seriously lazy or offensive (think Danczuk with his rants against successive leaders in the Tory press) to trigger a strong challenge, and then, well, being the Labour candidate really isn't a guaranteed job for life.
@rosschawkins: Green MP Caroline Lucas preparing Repeal Bill amendment – has cross party support, @BBCr4today
@rosschawkins: SNP also set to amend Repeal Bill, - it’s published next week, debates in autumn
£10 to the charity of your choice says no.
Not even Boris would be as bad.
I don't really get the "totemic" opposition to the Repeal Bill. I understood that, whatever its name, its purpose is to ensure that we still have a viable legal framework in the country once we leave the EU ie. it's main purpose is to prevent anarchy. What is actually in it doesn't matter so much (because it can always be amended by future parliaments anyway).
Is Jezza PM yet .... just asking for a few well heeled nervous nellies among the cricketing glitterati?
- The polls don't show that he's more popular than Labour. There are still a significant number of voters with doubts. May is still marginally ahead as best PM.
- More than any other politician at the moment, he inspires genuine affection and enthusiasm in a lot of people - the 35% or so who like him mostly *really* like him. That doesn't necessarily transfer to anyone else, so the left would be mistaken to think they can just swap him for another leftie and get the same result.
- He's proved amply that he doesn't fall apart or lash out wildly under fire. Voters do respect that - it's one of several important characteristics in a PM. He seems, to coin a phrase, strong and stable.
- Trials by fire don't repeat in the same form. "They're all bonkers Trots who like terrorists" largely flopped, and will flop again. I gather the Tories will try "Their spending policies will ruin the economy" instead, but their own bung to the DUP and open debate about breaching the pay cap are undermining that. People don't really follow the details, but they do feel that if we're going to spend billions, let it be on something useful in Britain, not on motorways in Armagh.
- A more subtle issue is that the Tories essentially concede that the spending would be nice if we could afford it. The small-state case is being quietly abandoned, and I'm not sure the Tories can win without it.
They can pretend to be something that they are not - as they did (successfully for a while, under Mr Cameron - but this is false and dishonest. The underlying question is: What is the Conservative Party for? Or who is it for? And recent experience has shown us the answers to those questions.
I think to be fair you should add that he inspires revulsion in some of those opposed to him. That can make them a bit irrational (they underestimate him), but it also motivates them.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/how-brexiteers-appealed-to-voters-nostalgia/ http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/06/08/things-were-better-in-the-past-brexit-and-the-westminster-fallacy-of-democratic-nostalgia/
TM had a vision of a more socially conservative government which played a more active role in the economy. But she lost a majority. Conservatives need to pick one of those visions, or concoct a new one IMO.
Being the party of deficit reduction isn't a vision.
Governments in their last term are not necessarily terrible for the country, and 12 years is comparable to Labour's 1997 - 2010 innings.
That said, most missed Root breaking Cook's record of the highest score for a captain on debut.
I've been to all the major sporting venues in this country and a few in Europe, but Lords is my favourite venue by miles.
And even that is probably doing the residents a disservice. Of the voices complaining that Sir Martin is too white, that £10k relocation isn't enough, that a year's immigration amnesty is a trap and a free pass on subletting is a tory trick, and that the authorities have blood on their hands, how many are still hoarse from smoke inhalation at Grenfell? Very few. Huge numbers of the complainants and hecklers are 'community leaders', 'campaigners', 'bloggers' etc. The usual suspects. People who had no more been in Grenfell Tower than had Sir Martin, and who are much less prepared to analyse it with an even hand. To the detriment of the survivors and to the eternal shame of the malcontents, the corpses of the country's worst domestic fire in a generation are being loaded into Momentum trebuchets and chucked at whatever cause they wish.
My one quibble would be that he can fall apart and lash out when under fire - as demonstrated by some of his testy comments to audience members on Question Time and the Woman's Hour interview. The fire needs to be detailed and forensic on policies, though. He's very good at deflecting personal attacks over issues such as links to IRA/Hammas etc.
If Ireland had its own currency it would be faced with the same problem again: it would be borrowing in Pounds or Dollars or Euros, while having revenues and costs in Irish Punts. And it would need to either peg its currency to one of those.
Denmark is a small country outside the Eurozone with exactly this issue. It chose to peg its currency to the Euro. Ireland could do that. But that is not without its costs too.
It is also worth remembering that the Euro is very popular in Ireland, breaking 81:10 on good thing / bad thing for Ireland.
So, put it all together, and I suspect Ireland will choose to stay in the EU in the medium term. Longer term? Who knows.
Derailing legislation like the Repeal Bill is foolish. Brexit is locked in; all that needs to pass the commons are possible deals and legislation to ameliorate total Brexit.
Given so many didn't start campaigning until 24th June 2016, I suppose I shouldn't be so surprised.....
There won’t be a GE for a while. If the Tories call another one with the present expected set of events they’ll be massacred.
Incidentally, what’s the situation with the next Euro elections; aren’t they before we’re supposed to leave.
As Nick points out despite EVERYTHING May is still rated best PM in a contest against Corbyn which suggests next time the tactical voting will go the other way. The country is scared of both parties. Labour are control freaks (viz Momentum McDonnell Berger) the Tories are an anachronism (A RED WHITE and BLUE BREXIT).
I beleve the country will make sure Corbyn doesn't do any better than May and I say this as a Labour supporter. The next government to secure a majority will be under new management.
Local parties are mostly run by pragmatic stalwarts like SO, and Jezza trusts them. One advantage he has over the Tories is that he genuinely supports democratic structures, while May's attempt at autocracy fell flat. It is one reason the people like him.
We won't know how he will perform in office until elected, obviously, but you'd have to say that if he has surprised before he can surprise again.
I know the thought won't improve your enjoyment of the cornflakes this morning but it really does look like when rather than if he's elected. How soon and for how long depends as much as anything on the way the Conservatives play their hand.
My Dad was a good card player. He always said any fool can play a good hand, but it takes a good player to play a bad one.
Good luck.
How many did you score?
One may dream ....
The hitch is that it's hard to run on that while simultaneously wreaking havoc your country's economy by ripping up its established trade relationships to replace them with who-knows-what, even if that's what the voters asked you to do.
Anybody say under 20k per annum give them inflationary increases for 2 years, got to be a winner surely.
https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/883062558248357889
https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/882990329368117252
There's still something of the Student Activist about JC. In some ways that's appealing but at times he is too readily nettled, too ready for a fight. It came across when Andrew Neil raised the question about his remarks during the Falklands War. It was a below the belt punch but he could have dealt with it easily, with humour, or contempt, as he saw fit. He was momentarily unsettled though which suggests he still feels a bit of a victim (and to be fair much of the commentariat has victimised him.)
But this is to quibble too. He had a storming Election and it will be interesting to see where he takes the Party from here.
...and if it isn't I don't believe we ever will.
The problem with the deselection stuff is that it is coming from people like Lavery and Williamson, both of whom are very close to the Labour leadership team. They would not be saying it if they did not feel emboldened to do so. And while deselections may not happen, allowing talk of them to spread is clearly not going to create the unity that Labour needs in order to appear like a government in waiting.
Many Labour moderates feel - quite rightly in my opinion - that people Milne, McDonnell and Lansman would like them out of the party. Hearing their close associates talking about it only reinforces that impression. If Labour is serious about power, it would be immensely foolish to allow such talk to continue. Anti-Tory votes are not guaranteed Labour ones, after all.
When you say "now it is clear Nurses and Teachers have been getting pay rises above inflation"
Have they? This is news to me.