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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Toxic Theresa’s terrible polling continues as YouGov gives Cor

SystemSystem Posts: 11,698
edited July 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Toxic Theresa’s terrible polling continues as YouGov gives Corbyn’s Labour an 8 point lead

Exclusive: 8 point lead for Labour in first YouGov / Times poll since election..Lab 46Con 38 pic.twitter.com/PFe2ktnY3n

Read the full story here


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  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,953
    First like Mrs May when it matters!
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,758
    edited July 2017
    Almost certainly not 2nd by now

    EDIT: Ah, I over-estimated the rest of you :smile:
  • Options
    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Is this not a Captain Oates moment?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116
    The charge of the right brigade is turning into a farce.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,361
    edited July 2017
    Fourth. Now fifth! I didn't think you could change position after a second refresh!

    Because the tactic of co-ordinated resignations worked so well for Labour MPs?

    Toxic is unfair. She isn't poisonous, just uninspiring and hopeless.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116
    edited July 2017
    .
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556

    The charge of the right brigade is turning into a farce.

    The charge of the light in the head brigade
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,758

    .

    You said that once before!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,115
    Yougov have got both the last 2 general elections completely wrong in their main poll so why should we bother listening to them now? If Survation starts showing similar figures then she can be a bit more concerned
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116

    .

    You said that once before!
    Double post because of a network issue. :)
  • Options
    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    I did make a comment early. Was it censored or just did it just fall into a black hole?
  • Options
    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,041
    PB Tories spinning furiously as ever! Pathetic bunch!

    LOL!!
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    IanB2 said:

    Fourth. Now fifth! I didn't think you could change position after a second refresh!

    Because the tactic of co-ordinated resignations worked so well for Labour MPs?

    Toxic is unfair. She isn't poisonous, just uninspiring and hopeless.

    She made a net loss of seats against Corbyn's Labour, that's the epitome of toxic.
  • Options
    NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    I think the silly season has started early.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,358
    Mass resignation of ministers is more a Jeremy Corbyn moment than a Leo Avery moment. "Yeah, whatever" is the appropriate answer.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    Toms said:

    I did make a comment early. Was it censored or just did it just fall into a black hole?

    There's a wordpress/vanilla conflict that causes a few multiple posts to appear.

    Your comment is here

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/5201/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-toxic-theresa-s-terrible-polling-continues-as-yougov-gives-cor#latest
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    First Liam Fox, now another narrow little nationalist joins in attacking the media

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/883072949468762118
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,758
    HYUFD said:

    Yougov have got both the last 2 general elections completely wrong in their main poll so why should we bother listening to them now? If Survation starts showing similar figures then she can be a bit more concerned

    But presumably all the pollsters have tweaked their models since the GE to remove the errors?

    Also YouGov's polls weren't too far out until they made 2 "minor changes" to their method for their final poll (which cmacked of herding).
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    TM resigning is not the answer.

    She should stay until we leave the EU/vote to stay.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,758

    .

    You said that once before!
    Double post because of a network issue. :)
    I'm glad it's not just me! :smile:
  • Options
    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    8% lead is of course good for Labour but they could have expected more considering the shambles the government is in.
  • Options
    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Toxifying surely not detoxifying?
  • Options
    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Impressive by the Tory headbangers - they are going to achieve the double of ending up with the UK more integrated in the EU once Brexit falls through and with a hard left Labour Prime Minister.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,758

    First Liam Fox, now another narrow little nationalist joins in attacking the media

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/883072949468762118


    And yet I thought they wanted to keep the BBC post independence, generously funded as it is (largely) by other UK residents.
  • Options
    TomsToms Posts: 2,478

    Toms said:

    I did make a comment early. Was it censored or just did it just fall into a black hole?

    There's a wordpress/vanilla conflict that causes a few multiple posts to appear.

    Your comment is here

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/5201/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-toxic-theresa-s-terrible-polling-continues-as-yougov-gives-cor#latest
    Thanks. The digital age has its peculiarities. Actually it's a wonder that it walks works at all.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,352
    edited July 2017
    HYUFD said:

    Yougov have got both the last 2 general elections completely wrong in their main poll so why should we bother listening to them now? If Survation starts showing similar figures then she can be a bit more concerned

    I have little doubt you gov are not far off. However, the unremitting attacks on Theresa May and the Government will continue until and unless the media narrative changes.

    She may be right on the public sector pay cap but it is just bad politics. The deal with the DUP opens Theresa to attack when it probably was not necessary. Grenfell media coverage has been wall to wall pain and suffering and traumatised residents being politicised, and of course Brexit going pear shape day by day.

    I have no idea how long Theresa will survive but I expect the polls to continue to reflect the mood of the Country and things could get worse and the only light at the end of the tunnel for the conservative party is that they do have time and they need to use it wisely

    And I say that on the day I received my renewed membership card
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    Chris_A said:

    Toxifying surely not detoxifying?

    Cheers, can I blame auto-correct.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,758
    @TSE "Surely the Tory party must realise that Mrs May is detoxifying the Tory party"

    Surely you mean re-toxifying ??
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,758

    Chris_A said:

    Toxifying surely not detoxifying?

    Cheers, can I blame auto-correct.
    At least it shows we're paying attention!
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,289
    Who will play Baldwin to oust another ineffectual Tory leader?

  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    edited July 2017
    It's easy to see this as ever more pressure on Theresa May, and in ways it clearly is, but in my mind it's much more pressure on the Tories not to risk an election now than it is pressure on them to shake things up.

    The 9/4 on her to be PM when we leave the EU, and even the 5/1 on her to survive to 2020, are both value in my mind (both PP). Though the prospect of a leadership election is much stronger than a general election - granted.

    (EDIT: Actually, ignore the 9/4. Just take the 3/1 on her leaving in 2019 and 5/1 on 2020 or later.)
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,758
    edited July 2017

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov have got both the last 2 general elections completely wrong in their main poll so why should we bother listening to them now? If Survation starts showing similar figures then she can be a bit more concerned

    I have little doubt you gov are not far off. However, the unremitting attacks on Theresa May and the Government will continue until and unless the media narrative changes.

    She may be right on the public sector pay cap but it is just bad politics. The deal with the DUP opens Theresa to attack when it probably was not necessary. Grenfell media coverage has been wall to wall pain and suffering and traumatised residents being politicised, and of course Brexit going pear shape day by day.

    I have no idea how long Theresa will survive but I expect the polls to continue to reflect the mood of the Country and things could get worse and the only light at the end of the tunnel for the conservative party is that they do have time and they need to use it wisely

    And I say that on the day I received my renewed membership card
    I don't agree with all your posts Big G but this is an excellent summary.

    Wtf is she thinking with her stance on public sector pay for example?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,361

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov have got both the last 2 general elections completely wrong in their main poll so why should we bother listening to them now? If Survation starts showing similar figures then she can be a bit more concerned

    I have little doubt you gov are not far off. However, the unremitting attacks on Theresa May and the Government will continue until and unless the media narrative changes.

    She may be right on the public sector pay cap but it is just bad politics. The deal with the DUP opens Theresa to attack when it probably was not necessary. Grenfell media coverage has been wall to wall pain and suffering and traumatised residents being politicised, and of course Brexit going pear shape day by day.

    I have no idea how long Theresa will survive but I expect the polls to continue to reflect the mood of the Country and things could get worse and the only light at the end of the tunnel for the conservative party is that they do have time and they need to use it wisely

    And I say that on the day I received my renewed membership card
    I don't agree with all your posts Big G but this is an excellent summary.

    Wtf is she thinking with her stance on public sector pay for example?
    I got the impression she decided that if she gave way Labour would get all the credit, and the pressure would simply move along to the next item on the spending list.
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    If there are no Brexit numbers, perhaps we can infer them. If Tory supporters are mainly Leavers, and Labour supporters are mainly Remainers, can we infer a Leave to Remain swing from a growing Labour lead?
  • Options
    NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    The Tories would be well advised, for their own sake and that of the country as a whole, to not do anything precipitate. There is a lot of volatility in those voters that lie between a commited Corbynite minority and a larger anti-Corbynite minority. We can't re-run the election to see what would have happened if the alleged May errors had not been made. Perhaps they weren't as significant as most people think? Perhaps part of the population was gripped by a temporary fit of political madness as the novel political persona of JC spread its influence through social media? Social media that had a great deal more effect than even two years before.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,886
    edited July 2017
    LOL! The woman has faced a 24/7 media onslaught since 10pm on 8th June and the government has even effectively been accused of murder by the Opposition and media.

    The only surprise is that the Labour lead isn't double 8%...
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov have got both the last 2 general elections completely wrong in their main poll so why should we bother listening to them now? If Survation starts showing similar figures then she can be a bit more concerned

    I have little doubt you gov are not far off. However, the unremitting attacks on Theresa May and the Government will continue until and unless the media narrative changes.

    She may be right on the public sector pay cap but it is just bad politics. The deal with the DUP opens Theresa to attack when it probably was not necessary. Grenfell media coverage has been wall to wall pain and suffering and traumatised residents being politicised, and of course Brexit going pear shape day by day.

    I have no idea how long Theresa will survive but I expect the polls to continue to reflect the mood of the Country and things could get worse and the only light at the end of the tunnel for the conservative party is that they do have time and they need to use it wisely

    And I say that on the day I received my renewed membership card
    I don't agree with all your posts Big G but this is an excellent summary.

    Wtf is she thinking with her stance on public sector pay for example?
    I got the impression she decided that if she gave way Labour would get all the credit, and the pressure would simply move along to the next item on the spending list.
    And the fact that technically pay is suggested by an independent body that the government can then decide to take their advice or not....and are about to report on a number of professions. So if May came out and said pay rise, she could also get the claims of undermine the work of the pay body.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited July 2017

    twitter.com/jantalipinski/status/883076700187262981
    twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/883070774118141952

    That is margin of error stuff.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,886
    Labour could well hit 50% in the polls around party conference IMO.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    The 13/8 at a couple of bookies on no election before 2020 is very generous. It's in only one party's interest to have a quick election: and Labour can't do it on their own. Maybe things change and the government have a post-Brexit election, but I don't think it's desperately likely.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,758
    edited July 2017
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov have got both the last 2 general elections completely wrong in their main poll so why should we bother listening to them now? If Survation starts showing similar figures then she can be a bit more concerned

    I have little doubt you gov are not far off. However, the unremitting attacks on Theresa May and the Government will continue until and unless the media narrative changes.

    She may be right on the public sector pay cap but it is just bad politics. The deal with the DUP opens Theresa to attack when it probably was not necessary. Grenfell media coverage has been wall to wall pain and suffering and traumatised residents being politicised, and of course Brexit going pear shape day by day.

    I have no idea how long Theresa will survive but I expect the polls to continue to reflect the mood of the Country and things could get worse and the only light at the end of the tunnel for the conservative party is that they do have time and they need to use it wisely

    And I say that on the day I received my renewed membership card
    I don't agree with all your posts Big G but this is an excellent summary.

    Wtf is she thinking with her stance on public sector pay for example?
    I got the impression she decided that if she gave way Labour would get all the credit, and the pressure would simply move along to the next item on the spending list.
    Mmmm, maybe but the optics are just terrible, and it's hardly an issue that's going to fade away; rather, it will just get worse as inflation ticks up and more years of effective pay-cuts are added to the public sector workers.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116

    twitter.com/jantalipinski/status/883076700187262981
    twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/883070774118141952

    That is margin of error stuff.
    The YouGov tracker didn't show Remain ahead until right before the GE. Now it's a meaningful lead. That is statistically significant.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,115

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth. Now fifth! I didn't think you could change position after a second refresh!

    Because the tactic of co-ordinated resignations worked so well for Labour MPs?

    Toxic is unfair. She isn't poisonous, just uninspiring and hopeless.

    She made a net loss of seats against Corbyn's Labour, that's the epitome of toxic.
    Cameron lost the 2016 local elections to Corbyn
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Fourth. Now fifth! I didn't think you could change position after a second refresh!

    Because the tactic of co-ordinated resignations worked so well for Labour MPs?

    Toxic is unfair. She isn't poisonous, just uninspiring and hopeless.

    She made a net loss of seats against Corbyn's Labour, that's the epitome of toxic.
    Cameron lost the 2016 local elections to Corbyn
    Are you really comparing locals to a general election? I mean really?

    Seriously? Seriously??
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    For those in power, could you hold off having another GE for a 6-9 months. I don't fancy moving to Canada when winter is arriving.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I would expect more SLAB gains from the SNP, giving a working majority.
  • Options
    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    Got to keep May in post and let it play out, change of leader won't make a lot of difference right now, all the maomentum is with Labour right now. Got to just ride it out, see how the land lies in a year or two ideally.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,758

    For those in power, could you hold off having another GE for a 6-9 months. I don't fancy moving to Canada when winter is arriving.

    I am sure that will weigh heavily on their minds :smile:
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,352

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov have got both the last 2 general elections completely wrong in their main poll so why should we bother listening to them now? If Survation starts showing similar figures then she can be a bit more concerned

    I have little doubt you gov are not far off. However, the unremitting attacks on Theresa May and the Government will continue until and unless the media narrative changes.

    She may be right on the public sector pay cap but it is just bad politics. The deal with the DUP opens Theresa to attack when it probably was not necessary. Grenfell media coverage has been wall to wall pain and suffering and traumatised residents being politicised, and of course Brexit going pear shape day by day.

    I have no idea how long Theresa will survive but I expect the polls to continue to reflect the mood of the Country and things could get worse and the only light at the end of the tunnel for the conservative party is that they do have time and they need to use it wisely

    And I say that on the day I received my renewed membership card
    I don't agree with all your posts Big G but this is an excellent summary.

    Wtf is she thinking with her stance on public sector pay for example?
    I got the impression she decided that if she gave way Labour would get all the credit, and the pressure would simply move along to the next item on the spending list.
    Mmmm, maybe but the optics are just terrible, and it's hardly an issue that's going to fade away; rather, it will just get worse as inflation ticks up and more years of effective pay-cuts are added to the public sector workers.
    I would add I fully expect Hammond to make a move towards increased public sector pay in line with the pay review bodies in his Autumn statement, not least because over 40 conservative backbenchers will demand a change
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,758
  • Options
    NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov have got both the last 2 general elections completely wrong in their main poll so why should we bother listening to them now? If Survation starts showing similar figures then she can be a bit more concerned

    I have little doubt you gov are not far off. However, the unremitting attacks on Theresa May and the Government will continue until and unless the media narrative changes.

    She may be right on the public sector pay cap but it is just bad politics. The deal with the DUP opens Theresa to attack when it probably was not necessary. Grenfell media coverage has been wall to wall pain and suffering and traumatised residents being politicised, and of course Brexit going pear shape day by day.

    I have no idea how long Theresa will survive but I expect the polls to continue to reflect the mood of the Country and things could get worse and the only light at the end of the tunnel for the conservative party is that they do have time and they need to use it wisely

    And I say that on the day I received my renewed membership card
    I don't agree with all your posts Big G but this is an excellent summary.

    Wtf is she thinking with her stance on public sector pay for example?
    I got the impression she decided that if she gave way Labour would get all the credit, and the pressure would simply move along to the next item on the spending list.
    Mmmm, maybe but the optics are just terrible, and it's hardly an issue that's going to fade away; rather, it will just get worse as inflation ticks up and more years of effective pay-cuts are added to the public sector workers.
    My guess is that selective increases will be above 1% when the review bodies report. If they are for popular groups it will be good politics whist holding firm in other areas. Simply abandoning the cap would have looked terrible for a government - it has to be replaced by another justifiable policy.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,758
    jonny83 said:

    Got to keep May in post and let it play out, change of leader won't make a lot of difference right now, all the maomentum is with Labour right now. Got to just ride it out, see how the land lies in a year or two ideally.

    Momentum is definitely with Labout, that's true!
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    But overall that's a Con to LD swing
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,886
    edited July 2017
    It does look like we're heading for a Jezza government which presents me with a dilemma as he is too far left for me but on the other hand I don't (knowingly) back losers so I've got to find a way of getting on board the Jezza bandwagon but at the same time hedging my bets for when the sh*t hits the fan the day after he enters Downing St. :D
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,758

    But overall that's a Con to LD swing
    Ah yes.

    Are YouGov still using their seat predictor model that predicted a hung parliament for the GE?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    She's a fuckwit. Dump her

    The new, mellow, doesn't care about politics SeanT...
  • Options
    NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    jonny83 said:

    Got to keep May in post and let it play out, change of leader won't make a lot of difference right now, all the maomentum is with Labour right now. Got to just ride it out, see how the land lies in a year or two ideally.

    I agree. I thin (and hope) there is a touch of hysteria that will die down. We do need some effective countering of Corbyn/McDonell on economic policies though. I'm really frustrated by how little they have been cross-examined.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,115

    twitter.com/jantalipinski/status/883076700187262981
    twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/883070774118141952

    That is margin of error stuff.
    The YouGov tracker didn't show Remain ahead until right before the GE. Now it's a meaningful lead. That is statistically significant.
    Yougov had Remain 4% ahead on EU referendum day!
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,299

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov have got both the last 2 general elections completely wrong in their main poll so why should we bother listening to them now? If Survation starts showing similar figures then she can be a bit more concerned

    I have little doubt you gov are not far off. However, the unremitting attacks on Theresa May and the Government will continue until and unless the media narrative changes.

    She may be right on the public sector pay cap but it is just bad politics. The deal with the DUP opens Theresa to attack when it probably was not necessary. Grenfell media coverage has been wall to wall pain and suffering and traumatised residents being politicised, and of course Brexit going pear shape day by day.

    I have no idea how long Theresa will survive but I expect the polls to continue to reflect the mood of the Country and things could get worse and the only light at the end of the tunnel for the conservative party is that they do have time and they need to use it wisely

    And I say that on the day I received my renewed membership card
    I don't agree with all your posts Big G but this is an excellent summary.

    Wtf is she thinking with her stance on public sector pay for example?
    I got the impression she decided that if she gave way Labour would get all the credit, and the pressure would simply move along to the next item on the spending list.
    Mmmm, maybe but the optics are just terrible, and it's hardly an issue that's going to fade away; rather, it will just get worse as inflation ticks up and more years of effective pay-cuts are added to the public sector workers.
    My guess is that selective increases will be above 1% when the review bodies report. If they are for popular groups it will be good politics whist holding firm in other areas. Simply abandoning the cap would have looked terrible for a government - it has to be replaced by another justifiable policy.
    Agreed.

    Also won't be blanket - eg anyone earning over say £40k will be held to the 1%.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,886
    HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/jantalipinski/status/883076700187262981
    twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/883070774118141952

    That is margin of error stuff.
    The YouGov tracker didn't show Remain ahead until right before the GE. Now it's a meaningful lead. That is statistically significant.
    Yougov had Remain 4% ahead on EU referendum day!
    Populus had REMAIN 10% ahead on the day...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,115

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov have got both the last 2 general elections completely wrong in their main poll so why should we bother listening to them now? If Survation starts showing similar figures then she can be a bit more concerned

    I have little doubt you gov are not far off. However, the unremitting attacks on Theresa May and the Government will continue until and unless the media narrative changes.

    She may be right on the public sector pay cap but it is just bad politics. The deal with the DUP opens Theresa to attack when it probably was not necessary. Grenfell media coverage has been wall to wall pain and suffering and traumatised residents being politicised, and of course Brexit going pear shape day by day.

    I have no idea how long Theresa will survive but I expect the polls to continue to reflect the mood of the Country and things could get worse and the only light at the end of the tunnel for the conservative party is that they do have time and they need to use it wisely

    And I say that on the day I received my renewed membership card
    I don't agree with all your posts Big G but this is an excellent summary.

    Wtf is she thinking with her stance on public sector pay for example?
    I got the impression she decided that if she gave way Labour would get all the credit, and the pressure would simply move along to the next item on the spending list.
    Mmmm, maybe but the optics are just terrible, and it's hardly an issue that's going to fade away; rather, it will just get worse as inflation ticks up and more years of effective pay-cuts are added to the public sector workers.
    I would add I fully expect Hammond to make a move towards increased public sector pay in line with the pay review bodies in his Autumn statement, not least because over 40 conservative backbenchers will demand a change
    Agreed, Hammond has to make some concession on public sector pay now once the pay review bodies report
  • Options
    619619 Posts: 1,784

    The Tories would be well advised, for their own sake and that of the country as a whole, to not do anything precipitate. There is a lot of volatility in those voters that lie between a commited Corbynite minority and a larger anti-Corbynite minority. We can't re-run the election to see what would have happened if the alleged May errors had not been made. Perhaps they weren't as significant as most people think? Perhaps part of the population was gripped by a temporary fit of political madness as the novel political persona of JC spread its influence through social media? Social media that had a great deal more effect than even two years before.

    Stick with May till 2020?

    ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

    Not going to happen
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,758
    edited July 2017

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov have got both the last 2 general elections completely wrong in their main poll so why should we bother listening to them now? If Survation starts showing similar figures then she can be a bit more concerned

    I have little doubt you gov are not far off. However, the unremitting attacks on Theresa May and the Government will continue until and unless the media narrative changes.

    She may be right on the public sector pay cap but it is just bad politics. The deal with the DUP opens Theresa to attack when it probably was not necessary. Grenfell media coverage has been wall to wall pain and suffering and traumatised residents being politicised, and of course Brexit going pear shape day by day.

    I have no idea how long Theresa will survive but I expect the polls to continue to reflect the mood of the Country and things could get worse and the only light at the end of the tunnel for the conservative party is that they do have time and they need to use it wisely

    And I say that on the day I received my renewed membership card
    I don't agree with all your posts Big G but this is an excellent summary.

    Wtf is she thinking with her stance on public sector pay for example?
    I got the impression she decided that if she gave way Labour would get all the credit, and the pressure would simply move along to the next item on the spending list.
    Mmmm, maybe but the optics are just terrible, and it's hardly an issue that's going to fade away; rather, it will just get worse as inflation ticks up and more years of effective pay-cuts are added to the public sector workers.
    My guess is that selective increases will be above 1% when the review bodies report. If they are for popular groups it will be good politics whist holding firm in other areas. Simply abandoning the cap would have looked terrible for a government - it has to be replaced by another justifiable policy.
    I think they could make a case for abandoning that ran something like: post-2008, private sector incomes reflected the economic situation (i.e. fell in real-terms) whereas public sector incomes increased in real-terms. The recent cap has corrected that situation, so relative public vs. private sector incomes are back in balance... ergo now is the right time to ease the cap.

    (And to pay for it we're going to freeze income tax allowances, or find some other tax to increase, because we still want to see the defecit removed and public debt start to come down.)
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,886
    What will be really fun is watching all the multi-millionaire REMAIN Tories on here squealing when Jezza confiscate's their property portfolio's and taxes them until the pips squeak. :D
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    NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    619 said:

    The Tories would be well advised, for their own sake and that of the country as a whole, to not do anything precipitate. There is a lot of volatility in those voters that lie between a commited Corbynite minority and a larger anti-Corbynite minority. We can't re-run the election to see what would have happened if the alleged May errors had not been made. Perhaps they weren't as significant as most people think? Perhaps part of the population was gripped by a temporary fit of political madness as the novel political persona of JC spread its influence through social media? Social media that had a great deal more effect than even two years before.

    Stick with May till 2020?

    ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

    Not going to happen
    No till 2020. Look again in 12 months or so or when some natural breakpoint occurs in the Brexit situation.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,115
    The SNP would also no longer have a majority of Scottish seats on that poll, at least the Jezza surge combined with the Davidson gains has killed off indyref2, perhaps for a generation
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    SeanT said:

    There's now a very significant chance we won't Brexit at all. I may lose my bet with williamglenn

    Even more likely is the soft-shit Brexit to EEA. I just don't see how the Hard Brexiteers can force through anything else.

    It's arguably the worst Brexit. Many of the rules, no influence. But there we are. It would suit me and I have argued for it before, but now I think it is probable, not just desirable.

    Is your Brexit-related slump why you've stopped posting?
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,953
    SeanT said:

    There's now a very significant chance we won't Brexit at all. I may lose my bet with williamglenn

    Even more likely is the soft-shit Brexit to EEA. I just don't see how the Hard Brexiteers can force through anything else.

    It's arguably the worst Brexit. Many of the rules, no influence. But there we are. It would suit me and I have argued for it before, but now I think it is probable, not just desirable.

    Sean - remember that for hard Brexit to happen no-one needs to force anything. It is about waiting out the clock.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,758
    GIN1138 said:

    What will be really fun is watching all the multi-millionaire REMAIN Tories on here squealing when Jezza confiscate's their property portfolio's and taxes them until the pips squeak. :D

    He's going to exempt the multi-millionaire Leave funding tories is he?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    edited July 2017
    Seems to me that today heralds the last grasp of refuge for the Remainers.

    After Newsnight last night there has been a constant barrage of rubbish from the remain wimps, doing their utmost to scuttle Brexit completely by some sort of coordinated last minute push.

    I keep reading on here how the Govt is making a complete fuck up of the negotiations, yet no-one on here has a single clue as to what is going on behind the scenes, me included.

    Barnier's outburst today says to me that they are a little nervous as to what is happening, trying to lay the law down in public to save face, but behind the scenes who knows?

    They certainly don't want to lose 10 billion a year, and the Germans certainly don't want to make up the shortfall. They know they have a crisis looming in Italy and I suspect that the very few realists among them realise they may not be so powerful after all.

    Someone below said we have to pay our bills on exit, how much do you think that should be? As far as I have read they want 100 billion, do you remainers think we should pay that?

    Personally I think we should honour the pensions of the British MEP's, and possibly any commitments up to 2020, but we will be paying until March 2019 anyway so by the time you take off the 9 billion we have sitting in the ECB I would suggest the settlement should be very little.

    Anyway I'm off as I am going to Lords tomorrow so an early start for me.

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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,953

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov have got both the last 2 general elections completely wrong in their main poll so why should we bother listening to them now? If Survation starts showing similar figures then she can be a bit more concerned

    ...

    She may be right on the public sector pay cap but it is just bad politics. The deal with the DUP opens Theresa to attack when it probably was not necessary. Grenfell media coverage has been wall to wall pain and suffering and traumatised residents being politicised, and of course Brexit going pear shape day by day.

    I have no idea how long Theresa will survive but I expect the polls to continue to reflect the mood of the Country and things could get worse and the only light at the end of the tunnel for the conservative party is that they do have time and they need to use it wisely

    And I say that on the day I received my renewed membership card
    I don't agree with all your posts Big G but this is an excellent summary.

    Wtf is she thinking with her stance on public sector pay for example?
    I got the impression she decided that if she gave way Labour would get all the credit, and the pressure would simply move along to the next item on the spending list.
    Mmmm, maybe but the optics are just terrible, and it's hardly an issue that's going to fade away; rather, it will just get worse as inflation ticks up and more years of effective pay-cuts are added to the public sector workers.
    My guess is that selective increases will be above 1% when the review bodies report. If they are for popular groups it will be good politics whist holding firm in other areas. Simply abandoning the cap would have looked terrible for a government - it has to be replaced by another justifiable policy.
    I think they could make a case for abandoning that ran something like: post-2008, private sector incomes reflected the economic situation (i.e. fell in real-terms) whereas public sector incomes increased in real-terms. The recent cap has corrected that situation, so relative public vs. private sector incomes are back in balance... ergo now is the right time to ease the cap.

    (And to pay for it we're going to freeze income tax allowances, or find some other tax to increase, because we still want to see the defecit removed and public debt start to come down.)
    The reality of it is the increased tax allowance has raised take home pay without raising pay above 1%.

    It really isn't rocket science.
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    NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    SeanT said:

    There's now a very significant chance we won't Brexit at all. I may lose my bet with williamglenn

    Even more likely is the soft-shit Brexit to EEA. I just don't see how the Hard Brexiteers can force through anything else.

    It's arguably the worst Brexit. Many of the rules, no influence. But there we are. It would suit me and I have argued for it before, but now I think it is probable, not just desirable.

    If a May style deal looks unobtainable then I think a second referendum is inevitable. Ther might even be more than two poption with STV,
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    houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    Rees Mogg for leader. For the lolz.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,953
    619 said:

    The Tories would be well advised, for their own sake and that of the country as a whole, to not do anything precipitate. There is a lot of volatility in those voters that lie between a commited Corbynite minority and a larger anti-Corbynite minority. We can't re-run the election to see what would have happened if the alleged May errors had not been made. Perhaps they weren't as significant as most people think? Perhaps part of the population was gripped by a temporary fit of political madness as the novel political persona of JC spread its influence through social media? Social media that had a great deal more effect than even two years before.

    Stick with May till 2020?

    ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

    Not going to happen
    Didn't you say the same about President Trump?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,886
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    She's a fuckwit. Dump her

    The new, mellow, doesn't care about politics SeanT...
    I'm here for a nostalgic chat. Not caring about politics has been the BEST thing I ever did, since discovering (deleted for explicit content)
    I saw on your Twitter you was having blood texts (in a hospital department that most definitely was NOT in any "crisis" whatsoever)

    Everything OK I hope?
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,758
    houndtang said:

    Rees Mogg for leader. For the lolz.

    I'd say 'bring it on' but then I remember I was keen to see Trump win the GOP nomination as it would make the Dems a shoo-in... and look how that ended!
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    GIN1138 said:

    What will be really fun is watching all the multi-millionaire REMAIN Tories on here squealing when Jezza confiscate's their property portfolio's and taxes them until the pips squeak. :D

    Hopefully he starts with Emily Thornberry's property portfolio
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    619 said:

    The Tories would be well advised, for their own sake and that of the country as a whole, to not do anything precipitate. There is a lot of volatility in those voters that lie between a commited Corbynite minority and a larger anti-Corbynite minority. We can't re-run the election to see what would have happened if the alleged May errors had not been made. Perhaps they weren't as significant as most people think? Perhaps part of the population was gripped by a temporary fit of political madness as the novel political persona of JC spread its influence through social media? Social media that had a great deal more effect than even two years before.

    Stick with May till 2020?

    ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

    Not going to happen
    About as likely as a Trump presidency.

    JRM absolutely rocking on QT.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,953

    houndtang said:

    Rees Mogg for leader. For the lolz.

    I'd say 'bring it on' but then I remember I was keen to see Trump win the GOP nomination as it would make the Dems a shoo-in... and look how that ended!
    He is charming, funny and clever. He is unashamedly Tory. He'd do well.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Can anyone explain why we wouldn't go for EFTA for 5-10 years while we negotiated trade deals, then hard brexit if people are still mad about immigration?
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,953
    Wonder if Burgon ever had any of those meetings in the City...
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    Freggles said:

    Can anyone explain why we wouldn't go for EFTA for 5-10 years while we negotiated trade deals, then hard brexit if people are still mad about immigration?

    Because we're the supplicants in this deal.

    We need the support of the EU27.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,975
    Good audience this evening on QT.

    No quarters for any politicians.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    JRM for leader is an even more mad idea than Osborne for Conservative leader.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,758
    Mortimer said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov have got both the last 2 general elections completely wrong in their main poll so why should we bother listening to them now? If Survation starts showing similar figures then she can be a bit more concerned

    ...


    And I say that on the day I received my renewed membership card
    I don't agree with all your posts Big G but this is an excellent summary.

    Wtf is she thinking with her stance on public sector pay for example?
    I got the impression she decided that if she gave way Labour would get all the credit, and the pressure would simply move along to the next item on the spending list.
    Mmmm, maybe but the optics are just terrible, and it's hardly an issue that's going to fade away; rather, it will just get worse as inflation ticks up and more years of effective pay-cuts are added to the public sector workers.
    My guess is that selective increases will be above 1% when the review bodies report. If they are for popular groups it will be good politics whist holding firm in other areas. Simply abandoning the cap would have looked terrible for a government - it has to be replaced by another justifiable policy.
    I think they could make a case for abandoning that ran something like: post-2008, private sector incomes reflected the economic situation (i.e. fell in real-terms) whereas public sector incomes increased in real-terms. The recent cap has corrected that situation, so relative public vs. private sector incomes are back in balance... ergo now is the right time to ease the cap.

    (And to pay for it we're going to freeze income tax allowances, or find some other tax to increase, because we still want to see the defecit removed and public debt start to come down.)
    The reality of it is the increased tax allowance has raised take home pay without raising pay above 1%.

    It really isn't rocket science.
    Not sure I get your drift Mortimer old pal...

    The 1% pay cap saves the government money (constrains spending if you like). Raising the tax allowances loses the government revenue, whereas freezing allowances would increase revenue (in times of inflation). So freezing allowances could help pay for breaking the 1% pay cap. I haven't done the sums, so I don't know if it would be enough but it would certainly help.

    Worth remembering too, that public sector pay increases at the rate of inflation should be affordable without increasing spending in real terms.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,886
    edited July 2017

    JRM for leader is an even more mad idea than Osborne for Conservative leader.


    He'd make a good party chairman though...
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,975
    The Tories should give proper inflation pay increases to the public sector.

    And move the public sector to DC pensions whilst they're at it
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Freggles said:

    Can anyone explain why we wouldn't go for EFTA for 5-10 years while we negotiated trade deals, then hard brexit if people are still mad about immigration?

    Because we're the supplicants in this deal.

    We need the support of the EU27.
    Even to join EFTA?
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    Those numbers look right for mid term. Semi popular government (who just got 43% of the vote in a real election) and a populist opposition who say whatever the public want to hear - even on brexit they say that e can leave and have exactly all the same benefits. With no scrutiny is there a reason why labour would be less popular?
This discussion has been closed.