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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we await the August IPSOS-MORI poll here’s the latest GE
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we await the August IPSOS-MORI poll here’s the latest GE20115 outcome prices
No other pollster presents their data in such an attractive and comprehensive way and there’s almost always good analysis from the firm which has been polling longer than anyone else.
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http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/6orfkgwwet/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-140813.pdf
http://www.ehow.com/how_2049858_make-tinfoil-hat.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10242658/Why-Alastair-Campbells-advice-to-Ed-Miliband-sucks.html
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100231108/labour-needs-to-come-up-with-a-future-it-wont-find-it-by-digging-up-the-corpse-of-new-labour/
Good luck to all those who are getting the envelope this morning!
Interesting and valuable.
And for those of us celebrating more than 155 years of the English language ?!?
So a bet for a hung parliament is high risk, regardless of what happened last time (when the LD's were strong).
http://www.techeblog.com/index.php/tech-gadget/nyc-artist-shows-us-what-famous-celebrities-would-look-like-as-normal-people
FPT, I suspect you are a tennis aficionado. The less committed watchers of the sport will have more sympathy for John Inverdale. Of course, his comments objectify women but do women not also make similar comments about the male players?
During the Wimbledon fortnight, you get the occasional viewers of tennis, and to be fair she does "scrub up well". Like it or not, men do look at women (and vice versa) in that manner, and sporting excellence won't change that fact. Your viewpoint, although noble, may well be in the minority.
Whatever, the official line, most men will still chance "the one eye" (as the old joke goes).
YouGov
65% of 2010 Labour voters would chose a majority Labour government as best for Britain; 15% would chose a Lib/Lab coalition.
Hhmmm ....
Like David McLetchie's death it attracted virtually nil comment here at PB. They are just not interested in Scottish politics, even when it deeply affects the Unionist side.
The whole "do no evil" thing was rubbish from the start.
"When has any female sports reporter ever said something similar on national telly? "
Perhaps they ought to. There would be less outcry if it was that way round, but why do you think Jess Ennis was the poster girl for the Olympics and not one of the shot-putters?
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Editor-s-comment-Invest-money-help-generation/story-19658765-detail/story.html
" invest her money to establish an annual award to help young women through apprenticeships or university."
More worthy than money laundering by political parties.
It's 8.30 and in the BA lounge again. Just saw someone pour themselves a triple whisky. He looked like a normal guy presumably heading on holiday - not an alcoholic or anything.
But what is it about travel that makes people drink this early?
Are you denying you wrote that?
And the Nate Silver story was even worse. I did try my best, as did another poster (union dividend?), but we failed miserably. No-one remotely interested in a story that, if true, would have a huge effect on several political betting markets.
Not a denial, in theory, but certainly implicit in the suggestion you are smearing her
Post the link.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23707274
I think this is just one of the problems you're going to get with the indyref, positions are fairly entrenched so notable events get lost in the crossfire.
He apparently believes that either Hayek or Friedman would be ideal next heads of the Fed and the fact that they are both dead only enhances their qualifications for the role. In short this man is as far off the page as his father. Good luck to those betting on him getting the republican nomination, let alone the Presidency.
For a Conservative majority you need to name 20 seats the Conservatives will gain in 2015.
Berwick
Mid Dorset
Solihull
all look like good chances but then it gets difficult.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10244129/Britain-has-Alice-in-Wongaland-economy.html
Another thing to note about yesturday's employment data was a much greater increase in women employed than men.
Remember when a couple of years ago women were doing worse in employment than men? At the time it was regarded as a serious issue. Odd then that when women do better than men the difference is no longer regarded as important.
The increase in female employment, together with new jobs once again going predominantly to immigrants, does suggest that most jobs are in low skilled wealth consuming service sector areas.
The UK's 'Mr Creosote' economy has started eating the next course.
Incidentally, if any representative of Burger King is reading this: your Turkish operation in tainting your brand. Leaving aside the revolting food we were served (BK is usually edible in most other countries, and you get proper Coke at European BKs, not watered down pish), I was astonished at the blatant robbery that was inflicted on me.
Stunningly poor customer service is common in Turkey, and at airports in general, but actually getting robbed by the cheeky wee besom behind the counter was a new one for me. The "Menu" (burger, chips, coke) was 19 Turkish lire, but she automatically "supersized" me to the King Size at extra 3,50. I said no thanks, I didn't want the king size, just the normal. She said that the normal menu "has run out" and that I must buy the king size. No discussion.
She only robbed me of a quid, but I cannot help feeling a little less positive about BK.
Tim should be prostrate giving thanks to IDS' magnificent policy.
"Bring us three Buck's Fizzes and keep the change."
The late Alan Clark MP when approached by Sir Geoffrey Howe dressed in a dinner jacket.
http://tinyurl.com/nbednvl
It is not a pretty picture but the latest statistics suggest unsecured consumer debt is actually falling. I therefore really don't know what the basis of the Telegraph piece is. And these are nominal figures. In real terms debt has been falling for some considerable time as it needed to of course after the madness 2002-2007.
The vast bulk of consumer debt in this country is of course mortgages. If we have reached the point when at least nominal house prices have stopped falling then that debt will become more secure.
It is very difficult to get around the fact that consumption is about 70% of the economy. If you want growth spending has to increase. The fact we overspent and overborrowed during the last boom makes this very difficult but it is essential if there is to be any incentive to invest in new production and supply.
When was your last post on Faslane vs NATO?
A Burger King in Turkey!!. Was the local food that bad, nothing else on offer or did you fancy the "cheeky wee besom"?
As for the cheeky wee besom, she was a repulsive little turd. Both without and within. You know that look that people have when they really hate their jobs? She had it in spades.
Apology for denying saying something you plainly did (and accusing me of smearing) anytime you like.
In the final 18 months of the Lab govt almost 600,000 more people claimed for HB. In the past 18 months 150,000 more people have claimed. So it's a rate of change kind of thing. In fact since the beginning of this year the rate has stayed almost the same.
But that's a statistics view. The key issue is that there has been a rebalancing of the economy as witnessed by yesterday's employment figures. Not much change in the headline rate but a large change in public vs private and that process will have noise around it.
In all, and despite the shrillness of the NS and tim, I would say a solid B+ for the coalition on this so far.
Personal insolvencies are down 6.1% on this time last year .....
I think their point is we're setting off again on the well trodden path of debt and haven't got much headroom since we haven't paid the last lot off yet. HMG need a policy where we produce more of what we consume to get us off debt bingeing. We all sort of know where continued borrowing is going to leave us.
We certainly do not have the capacity to do anything like the level of borrowing we did the last time in Brown's fantasy grotto. But I return to the point: do we have an economy that continues to shrink indefinitely as we pay off old debts and avoid new commitments or do we accept that some increase in credit is essential if we are to get ourselves out of this mess?
I really don't think we have any choices. We have to take risks on house prices because it drives demand more effectively than anything else. We have to increase the supply of credit which will inevitably mean more debt for some. Obviously we have to try and improve our balance of payments too but there are a lot of countries in that same boat and they are all trying to do the same at the same time.
None of the latest good economic news takes away from the fact that we are in a very bad situation.
UK retail sales rose by 1.1% in July, up 3% year-on-year
Close to a boom....
Since you won't discuss Scotland on this site, why do you post?
Here's something else for you not to talk about:
"Ipsos MORI said its polling suggested the First Minister would have a better chance if he watered down his strategy of telling voters independence is a small step and adopt a more radical agenda.
In a bid to reassure voters, Mr Salmond has claimed that everything from the currency to Scotland’s EU status would remain the same in the face of expert warnings otherwise.
But Mark Diffley, the pollster’s research director, said undecided Scots from poorer backgrounds would be more like to vote yes if he was more frank in promising drastic change."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10243400/Alex-Salmond-needs-70pc-of-undecided-voters-to-win-independence-referendum.html
Its what some of us have been saying for some time......
Blaming the government for peoples personal habits interacting with private enterprises - which are all legal - good luck with fixing that by policy.
We certainly do not have the capacity to do anything like the level of borrowing we did the last time in Brown's fantasy grotto. But I return to the point: do we have an economy that continues to shrink indefinitely as we pay off old debts and avoid new commitments or do we accept that some increase in credit is essential if we are to get ourselves out of this mess?
I really don't think we have any choices. We have to take risks on house prices because it drives demand more effectively than anything else. We have to increase the supply of credit which will inevitably mean more debt for some. Obviously we have to try and improve our balance of payments too but there are a lot of countries in that same boat and they are all trying to do the same at the same time.
None of the latest good economic news takes away from the fact that we are in a very bad situation.
The issue imo is more where bank credit should be directed. UK consumers are heavily exposed to debt and need to pay their debts down further. A fall in consumer debt isn't much help if real incomes are also being squeezed so that debt servicing is still a problem. Currently its savers being penalised for the acts of the reckless and the bill is being presented via lower returns. Moving house prices might be a temporary help in getting consumer confidence going, but really HMG needs to get business confidence back on track and get cash rich companies to start spending on capital investment and raising domestic output.
"According to the original briefing last autumn, those being chosen are not simply the most marginal on paper. Analysis has also apparently been done to pick out seats which are undergoing major demographic changes which favour Tory candidates, seats where unusual circumstances affected the last election and seats whose MPs who win on the back of personal loyalty rather than party success may be standing down."
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/parliament/4040-seats/
"Experts have said that the warm weather, increased consumer confidence and the "feel good factor" created by the Royal Wedding stimulated growth."
And excellent feedback in the comments
"Anne Pettifor is an extreme left wing activist with a very limited grasp of economics. I once spent a week on a course with her and never heard a sensible idea uttered. She's good for a sound bite but not much else."
I have a passing interest in betting and political betting. Additionally, if someone has an open mind and wants to discuss what's going on in Scotland I'll respond in kind, the same goes for flyting.
It's rather touching that in amongst all the sneering and trolling you're evidently desperate to discuss the referendum. I'm afraid you must seek your balm elsewhere.
"Senior Nato officials have warned Alex Salmond's government that an independent Scotland would be barred from joining Nato if there were any disputes over the basing of nuclear weapons on the Clyde."
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/aug/14/nato-blow-snp-nuclear-strategy
HMG is still living on borrowed money and needing to relaunch the failed policies of the last 20 years. Einstein's comment on madness is apt at this point.
But what we were talking about is private sector debt which got completely out of control under Brown. This has fallen substantially, albeit by quite a lot of write offs. This deleveraging of private sector debt, whilst necessary, is why we have not had any growth for 3 years. I am suggesting that whilst lower debt is desirable we cannot keep going like this and need additional credit into the system again to boost demand and encourage investment.
Alan - I agree - but the govt can't put all the consumers houses in order before they get their own.