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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It appears Brexiteers are finding out they can’t have their ca

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  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    We haven't left yet.
    630 days, 15 hours 51 minutes to go
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Labour are not really in favour of Hard Brexit; it's just convenient cover for now. Expect a full embrace of EEA when the mood turns further against hard Brexit
    Seriously? You're going for "They've got their fingers crossed behind their back" as an argument?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Anecdote alert!!!!

    I had an interesting conversation with a customer this afternoon. He sells parts for an iconic British brand and most of them go to Europe. He said (paraphrasing) "All this noise about frictionless trading and coming up with a way to do it - we already have it and it has been working for years."

    In other words we are trying to replace the current system with an identical but different one.

    Duh!

    He is getting less happy with every passing day.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    Sean_F said:

    What is the butcher's apron?
    https://www.indymedia.org.uk/en/2010/02/446556.html
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    GeoffM said:

    Seriously? You're going for "They've got their fingers crossed behind their back" as an argument?
    I'm simply stating their obvious gameplan
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600

    Reading this thread has been an education. In the event of Brexit being a woeful catastrophe it is now clear who is to blame for the ultimate fiasco! Blair for his mismanagement of pan-European migration. Brown for crashing the world economy and Corbyn for his hatred of multi-nation trading blocs (except for the Soviet Union).

    Please note, Brexit looking calamitous has absolutely nothing to do with a vanity referendum, a vanity bids to become leader of the Conservative Party and hence PM or a vanity General Election.
    It is Blair and Brown who created the forces necessary for the Brexit vote certainly
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Not sure how reliable his sources are but this looks relevant to how things could play out:

    https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/882989178610438146

    At least, they are thinking about it. Progress.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    stodge said:

    Well, no one, even Barclays, would buy it. Second, it was an Investment Bank so there was presumably less public exposure.

    However, the nature of its collapse became iconic, symbolic and psychologically significant and started a process.

    I suspect with hindsight many people wish it had been saved. I doubt its collapse helped McCain in the 2008 election but Obama would probably have won anyway.

    Brown could have allowed Northern Rock to go bust, it had no real potential buyers in 2007 either
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Surely, Ishmael, it was won by all those things, and more.
    With a margin of victory/defeat this small, almost anything which is a contributory factor is also a decisive factor. That is what is spectacular about this 350m nonsense, that the effect if any would be too tiny to matter.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    It is Blair and Brown who created the forces necessary for the Brexit vote certainly
    Blair was indeed responsible for the fall of the Roman Empire!
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/iandunt/status/882952960619286528

    How ironic that, as we leave the EU we get an FTA with Japan that we are about to ditch so that we can try negotiating an FTA with Japan post Brexit.

    Given all the FTAs we will need to negotiate we will soon be the world leader in Trade Agreements. I wonder if there is an export market for FTAs?

    :D

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,101

    Go to Dublin.

    See the flags of many European nations fluttering in the breeze.

    Look for the butcher's apron.

    You won't see it.
    The mask slips.

    It's ok if I call those who fly the EU flag here the traitor's apron, then?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,101
    Sean_F said:

    The numbers are certainly there.

    There does seem to be an odd belief that those of us who voted for Brexit did not really mean it.
    They are getting increasingly desperate. We are now going through the event horizon of Brexit, with barely 21 months left.

    Last chance.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,101
    RoyalBlue said:

    You may both be right!
    Hold your nerve, man.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_P said:

    It was, according to the guy running the campaign. But maybe you know more than him.
    So expose the fallacy in the argument. There may be weaker ripostes than the appeal to authority, but I can't easily think of one.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,160
    edited July 2017
    I see the German police aren't taking any s##t from the soap dodgers in Hamburg.

    Pretty scary scenes in all honesty, with lots of people having to be hauled up and over a wall, rather Hillsborough-esque.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,101
    stodge said:

    I don't disagree with much of this and recognise you and I are pretty close on this.

    I do think you're wrong on two key points - first, Britain will always be a draw for migrants. We have the English language and even if we lose ground on Germany and France, we will still be prosperous in comparison to many prospective migrants have originated. Did the 2008 crash stop the flow of EU citizens ?

    Second, and this is something not often talked about, there will be those who, on the basis of history, will find the pledges to reduce migration less than credible or convincing and may even want to see a reduction in the current numbers. Once the parameters for residency have become clearer, the question is how many will ignore the law, carry on working in the black economy living cash in hand and fail to integrate ?
    It did to an extent, actually. Net migration fell to c.175,000 post GE2010.

    Immigration is a hard thing to control in the modern world, but we need to remain vigilant to abuse.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,101
    surbiton said:

    At least, they are thinking about it. Progress.
    Not reliable at all.

    He's an arch Remoaner.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    There are no numbers needed. The votes are already done, both inside Parliament and in the country. If Parliament votes against any of the bills put forward in the QS it doesn't mean Brexit will not happen. It just means it will happen without an agreement. But it will never the less happen.
    I don't mean a Brexit in name only will not happen.

    I mean a BREXIT of any kind will not happen. People do not commit mass hara-kiri.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,160
    edited July 2017
    Mr Ashley told the judge he would have had four to five pints within an hour, after being asked how much he had drunk by a lawyer representing Mr Blue.

    "It was a fun evening, drinking at pace," he said. "I like to get drunk. I am a power drinker."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-40517276

    I do wonder how he manages to run such a successful company. He appears to be the British Trump minus the bankruptcies and with real profits.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    There are no numbers needed. The votes are already done, both inside Parliament and in the country. If Parliament votes against any of the bills put forward in the QS it doesn't mean Brexit will not happen. It just means it will happen without an agreement. But it will never the less happen.
    Sorry to hear of your health problems, good luck Richard T.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ishmael_Z said:

    So expose the fallacy in the argument. There may be weaker ripostes than the appeal to authority, but I can't easily think of one.

    It's not an appeal to authority, it's an expose of the fallacy in your argument.

    You said the lie didn't win the vote (an assertion with no basis)

    The guy who created the lie said it was essential to the win. Your baseless assertion does not match the facts.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,381
    surbiton said:

    I don't mean a Brexit in name only will not happen.

    I mean a BREXIT of any kind will not happen. People do not commit mass hara-kiri.
    However, people do quite often secede from bigger political entities.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    How ironic that, as we leave the EU we get an FTA with Japan that we are about to ditch so that we can try negotiating an FTA with Japan post Brexit.

    Given all the FTAs we will need to negotiate we will soon be the world leader in Trade Agreements. I wonder if there is an export market for FTAs?

    :D

    The best lie of the lot told by the Remainers was that we'd be back of the queue in negotiating an FTA with the USA. Precisely the reverse turns out to be the truth.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Apologies for the moan. It does actually help :)

    This place must be a tonic then ;)

    I am sorry to hear you are poorly and I hope it all gets sorted quickly for you

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    hunchman said:

    The best lie of the lot told by the Remainers was that we'd be back of the queue in negotiating an FTA with the USA. Precisely the reverse turns out to be the truth.
    Really? How is our US FTA coming along then? Bear in mind it was the govt of the US who told us that we would be back of the line.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,381
    Scott_P said:

    It's not an appeal to authority, it's an expose of the fallacy in your argument.

    You said the lie didn't win the vote (an assertion with no basis)

    The guy who created the lie said it was essential to the win. Your baseless assertion does not match the facts.
    I think you lost because your cause was a poor one.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,160
    To be fair, it must be tricky to find a hotel room for Trump given his alleged interesting needs.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Hold your nerve, man.
    Indeed. Our business has 80%+ and growing outside the EU. By it's nature the odd delay in customs by a day or two is "meh" not a big deal. The vast majority of the 20% is part of a world contract so utter calamity would have to strike before it were threatened. The decline in Sterling since June 23rd 2016 has been an unalloyed good thing, sales and profits are up.

    A further steep drop and a rise in interest rates that would accompany it would be greeted by me dancing in the street for joy for reasons too boring to go into here other than one word (pensions).

    It may not be typical but it's my reality, and I suspect not wholly alien for provincial manufacturers.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    surbiton said:

    At least, they are thinking about it. Progress.
    Given that recent press reports have had EU govts saying that we can back out from Brexit at any time, I do wonder where they are getting their legal advice from.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,242

    Really? How is our US FTA coming along then? Bear in mind it was the govt of the US who told us that we would be back of the line.
    Since we haven't left the EU yet we cannot officially negotiate any FTAs. Do please keep up.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,242

    This place must be a tonic then ;)

    I am sorry to hear you are poorly and I hope it all gets sorted quickly for you

    Thankyou. And now I feel bad about sniping at you. :( Apologies.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Since we haven't left the EU yet we cannot officially negotiate any FTAs. Do please keep up.
    I thought I would reply to a deliberate inaccuracy with one of my one. Why not? What is good for the goose is good for the gander :D
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Thankyou. And now I feel bad about sniping at you. :( Apologies.
    Yes, get well.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113



    The mask slips.

    It's ok if I call those who fly the EU flag here the traitor's apron, then?
    Childish comment, but sadly typical of you.

    My point is that that's what the Irish call the Union Jack. To think they will leave the EU to rejoin a union with what they see as their former oppressor is beyond swivel-eyed.

    ...if I could think what that might be - on stalks perhaps?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,101

    Really? How is our US FTA coming along then? Bear in mind it was the govt of the US who told us that we would be back of the line.
    No one is going to agree a trade deal with us until we're actually out.

    You know this. This is a ruse to stop us leaving.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    On another note, a lot of geophysical activity this week right around the world. Are we setting up for a big one somewhere in terms of a large volcanic eruption or big earthquake? It's exactly what we should come to expect with the sun beginning to enter a grand solar minimum. All the worst earthquakes / volcanic eruptions occur in times of grand solar minimums such as we're now entering. A rupture of the Cascadia fault in the Pacific NW of the US could produce an earthquake between 8.7 and 9.2 on the Richter scale with a corresponding tsunami taking out a large chunk of that coastline. We've had a lot of activity elsewhere in the ring of fire (New Zealand, Japan, Chile, Sumatra) but not there. And over 310 years since the last major earthquake, with a normal cycle length of around 240 years, its certainly due. Another possibility is the New Madrid fault in the centre of the US, which last had a serious quake in 1812 around the time of the last grand solar minimum on its 206 year cycle. Yellowstone continues to get a lot of attention, yes on its 600-700,000 year cycle its due, but that could mean anything between an imminent eruption and nothing happening for the next 10-15,000 years.

    I think something of a substantial nature will happen over the next 7 years as we approach the 2024 grand solar minimum, but where and what is anyone's guess.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,242
    surbiton said:

    I don't mean a Brexit in name only will not happen.

    I mean a BREXIT of any kind will not happen. People do not commit mass hara-kiri.
    And how exactly do they stop it? We have had the vote in Parliament. We have had the vote in the country. Is it your belief we should keep voting until we get the right result for you?

    I am afraid you are completely blinded by your own very particular view of Brexit. Hopefully this means that when it is not a disaster you will be much happier having had that weight lifted off you.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_P said:

    It's not an appeal to authority, it's an expose of the fallacy in your argument.

    You said the lie didn't win the vote (an assertion with no basis)

    The guy who created the lie said it was essential to the win. Your baseless assertion does not match the facts.
    Yes, but you cannot attribute any weight to the fact that it was a lie unless you assert that the same claim but with the correct figure would have swayed significantly fewer votes than the lie did. Given the relative closeness of the numbers, and the vagueness with which we all (and especially the less well educated, which is what we are on your own case talking about) conceptually grasp sums of money of this magnitude, that assertion can pretty much be rejected out of hand.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    surbiton said:

    Blair was indeed responsible for the fall of the Roman Empire!
    Funny how Schroeder, Chirac, Berlusconi and Aznar all agreed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 and none have had as big a rise in an anti EU party (and hence a Leave vote) as we have had with the rise of UKIP after Blair failed to impose transition controls
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,381
    edited July 2017

    Childish comment, but sadly typical of you.

    My point is that that's what the Irish call the Union Jack. To think they will leave the EU to rejoin a union with what they see as their former oppressor is beyond swivel-eyed.

    ...if I could think what that might be - on stalks perhaps?
    It's a specific type of Irish, violent Republicans and their supporters, who use that expression.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,101
    welshowl said:

    Indeed. Our business has 80%+ and growing outside the EU. By it's nature the odd delay in customs by a day or two is "meh" not a big deal. The vast majority of the 20% is part of a world contract so utter calamity would have to strike before it were threatened. The decline in Sterling since June 23rd 2016 has been an unalloyed good thing, sales and profits are up.

    A further steep drop and a rise in interest rates that would accompany it would be greeted by me dancing in the street for joy for reasons too boring to go into here other than one word (pensions).

    It may not be typical but it's my reality, and I suspect not wholly alien for provincial manufacturers.
    Yes, people are getting far too jittery about the fallout from the election result and the orgy of hubristic excitement coming from Camp Remain.

  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    Sean_F said:

    It's a specific type of Irish, violent Republicans, who use that expression.
    Still don't see it flying in Dublin. Maybe all the flagpoles are controlled by a cabal of violent Irish Republicans.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,101

    Childish comment, but sadly typical of you.

    My point is that that's what the Irish call the Union Jack. To think they will leave the EU to rejoin a union with what they see as their former oppressor is beyond swivel-eyed.

    ...if I could think what that might be - on stalks perhaps?
    I don't think you had a point. You just like to troll.
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840

    And how exactly do they stop it? We have had the vote in Parliament. We have had the vote in the country. Is it your belief we should keep voting until we get the right result for you?

    I am afraid you are completely blinded by your own very particular view of Brexit. Hopefully this means that when it is not a disaster you will be much happier having had that weight lifted off you.
    A lifetime of denial and hate beckons for those who cannot accept and understand Brexit.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113

    I don't think you had a point. You just like to troll.
    No, I just like to point out your idiocy.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,381

    Still don't see it flying in Dublin. Maybe all the flagpoles are controlled by a cabal of violent Irish Republicans.
    I'm not sure why one would expect to see it flying in Dublin. It flies from big hotels, but one would usually expect the Irish flag to fly from public buildings.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Really? How is our US FTA coming along then? Bear in mind it was the govt of the US who told us that we would be back of the line.
    That was Obama giving Cameron a helping hand in the referendum campaign! Do keep up to date instead of living in the past!
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,027

    I've yet to hear anyone on the Remain side apologise for their intentionally incorrect economic forecasts. We were told we would face the "immediate" loss of 500,000 jobs. That hasn't happened, has it?
    I really would caution waiting till we are out and and under what trading conditions before claiming things "haven't happened". If 500,000 do lose their jobs it's not going to be much comfort that it happened a couple of years later than predicted.

    On the same basis I am happy to wait till Brexit to see if the NHS gets an extra £350 million a week before calling it a lie.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Read the story properly and it's a weird nothingburger.

    Buzzfeed phoned some hotels and asked if Trump was staying there. They all said no.

    AP say that he's staying at the Senate guesthouse and his staff at the consulate, not at a hotel.

    True; you have to read to the final line to find out that there's no story. But there's still no story.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    edited July 2017

    These are the biggest four parliamentary parties.
    The Conservatives, hard Brexit, +6
    Labour, hard Brexit "whatever you want" Brexit, +10
    The SNP, soft Brexit, -2
    The Liberal democrats, pro-Remain, -1
    UKIP, hard-Brexit, -12.

    While Labour were officially Hard Brexit, they managed to appear to be all things to all people, even receiving funding from More United.

  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Well, practically it's not just a case of finding a single room for the POTUS, usually they book out entire floors for all the aides and security personel.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    Sean_F said:

    I'm not sure why one would expect to see it flying in Dublin. It flies from big hotels, but one would usually expect the Irish flag to fly from public buildings.
    Do try to keep up. Dublin is full of flags of many nations. Except the UK.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,101

    No, I just like to point out your idiocy.
    I can only aspire to your levels of insight and intelligence.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,160
    GeoffM said:

    Read the story properly and it's a weird nothingburger.

    Buzzfeed phoned some hotels and asked if Trump was staying there. They all said no.

    AP say that he's staying at the Senate guesthouse and his staff at the consulate, not at a hotel.

    True; you have to read to the final line to find out that there's no story. But there's still no story.
    Buzzfeed fake news again....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,381

    Do try to keep up. Dublin is full of flags of many nations. Except the UK.
    Do try to stop being a twat. I've been there.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    Funny how Schroeder, Chirac, Berlusconi and Aznar all agreed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 and none have had as big a rise in an anti EU party (and hence a Leave vote) as we have had with the rise of UKIP after Blair failed to impose transition controls
    Not sure those are good examples. Both France and Italy have anti EU parties with bigger voteshares than the kipppers ever managed here.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,988
    edited July 2017
    HYUFD said:

    It is Blair and Brown who created the forces necessary for the Brexit vote certainly
    Errr? No, Mr Cameron called the referendum and Mr Johnson inadvertently won it in a bid to become Prime Minister. What has happened since the vote has been bewildering! Mrs May's triggering Article 50 on some random day she picked out of thin air without first getting even her first duck in order was nothing short of dereliction of duty!
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited July 2017
    rpjs said:

    Well, practically it's not just a case of finding a single room for the POTUS, usually they book out entire floors for all the aides and security personel.
    Yes, but I still found the story pretty funny. It's also winding up Trump supporters as well, which is quite amusing.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    Sean_F said:

    Do try to stop being a twat. I've been there.
    Perhaps you've seen the bullet holes in the facade of the General Post Office. Ask yourself why they haven't been repaired. Then ask yourself if the Irish people would want reunification with the nation that put them there.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Buzzfeed fake news again....
    Tbf, UK Buzzfeed actually isn't that bad.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Do try to keep up. Dublin is full of flags of many nations. Except the UK.
    Here's a nice picture of the Union Flag flying across the road from Leinster House in Dublin:

    http://img2.thejournal.ie/inline/137824/original/?width=600&version=137824
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,160
    edited July 2017

    Tbf, UK Buzzfeed actually isn't that bad.
    Erhhh.....remember that story about the oh so innocent grandmother being deported....
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Yes, but I still found the story pretty funny. It's also winding up Trump supporters as well, which is quite amusing.
    We're getting fed up with the general climate of lefty fake news, not the details of the made up stories themselves.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    A lifetime of denial and hate beckons for those who cannot accept and understand Brexit.
    Goodness knows what they'll be like when their beloved edifice collapses! The denial will be even bigger then.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Erhhh.....remember that story about the oh so innocent grandmother being deported....
    Yes, that didn't end up as intended!
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Erhhh.....remember that story about the oh so innocent grandmother being deported....
    Are you talking about the one from Singapore?

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Perhaps you've seen the bullet holes in the facade of the General Post Office. Ask yourself why they haven't been repaired.
    Bone idle council repairmen always in the pub across the road?

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    stodge said:

    Well, no one, even Barclays, would buy it. Second, it was an Investment Bank so there was presumably less public exposure.

    However, the nature of its collapse became iconic, symbolic and psychologically significant and started a process.

    I suspect with hindsight many people wish it had been saved. I doubt its collapse helped McCain in the 2008 election but Obama would probably have won anyway.

    iirc the American attempt to sell to Barclays (I almost wrote foist it on) was blocked by the government. Many observers believe the Americans letting Lehman's go bust is what triggered the global crisis.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,381

    Perhaps you've seen the bullet holes in the facade of the General Post Office. Ask yourself why they haven't been repaired. Then ask yourself if the Irish people would want reunification with the nation that put them there.
    I have no reason to believe that the Irish Republic wishes to rejoin this country. Nor do I have any reason to believe that the Irish in general are hostile to this country (Sinn Fein excepted).
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    iirc the American attempt to sell to Barclays (I almost wrote foist it on) was blocked by the government. Many observers believe the Americans letting Lehman's go bust is what triggered the global crisis.
    "Many"? Name four ... that aren't related to James Gordon Brown.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Thankyou. And now I feel bad about sniping at you. :( Apologies.
    I think I am sort of used to it by now. You would not be you if you stopped :)
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited July 2017
    http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/07/05/on-world-affairs-most-g20-countries-more-confident-in-merkel-than-trump/

    I wonder how Trump feels that more people in the US are looking to Merkel rather than himself to lead in regard to world affairs (according to Pew). Awkward....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183
    Do you know what, I'm sick of all this 'neeer, neeer, your side all kept lying about immigration'.

    I think sovereignty is really important. But I have also seen the negative impacts of uncontrolled EU immigration on the lives of my family who are not so privileged as to be antiquarian booksellers. I've seen their standards of living decline. I've seen competition for public services increase. Even in the poorest parts of North Wales, most of my generation will never buy a house; despite being better educated than most of their parents, who do own houses. I've seen the relentless pursuit of GDP growth at the expense of real GDP/capita growth. I've seen the long-standing social contract between employer and native employee and government and native eroded, for the sake of neo-liberal growth prospects. It makes me sick.

    I do not have anything but respect for those who have come here; but I don't think the numbers in which they've come is beneficial to our social settlement. I think it is, in fact, detrimental.

    Immigration IS a big issue. Brexit has to tackle it.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/07/05/on-world-affairs-most-g20-countries-more-confident-in-merkel-than-trump/

    I wonder how Trump feels that more people in the US are looking to Merkel rather than himself to lead in regard to world affairs (according to Pew). Awkward....

    I wouldn't have voted for him in a thousand years, just to be clear. However, on this, I doubt he gives the remotest flying fuck.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    GeoffM said:

    "Many"? Name four ... that aren't related to James Gordon Brown.
    A quick google finds the official US government enquiry said: The Commission concludes the financial crisis reached cataclysmic proportions with the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

    I expect there were more than four people on the commission but you'd probably dismiss them as biased for saying the crisis started in America and not in Downing Street.

    Gordon Brown saved the pound, saved the world, and saved the union. For all his manifest faults, that's a lot of fire insurance when he reaches the pearly gates.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    welshowl said:

    I wouldn't have voted for him in a thousand years, just to be clear. However, on this, I doubt he gives the remotest flying fuck.
    I'd disagree. The one thing Trump has shown is that he deeply sensitive to criticism.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183

    A quick google finds the official US government enquiry said: The Commission concludes the financial crisis reached cataclysmic proportions with the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

    I expect there were more than four people on the commission but you'd probably dismiss them as biased for saying the crisis started in America and not in Downing Street.

    Gordon Brown saved the pound, saved the world, and saved the union. For all his manifest faults, that's a lot of fire insurance when he reaches the pearly gates.
    IIRC it was Darling who was chancellor during the crisis.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,320

    http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/07/05/on-world-affairs-most-g20-countries-more-confident-in-merkel-than-trump/

    I wonder how Trump feels that more people in the US are looking to Merkel rather than himself to lead in regard to world affairs (according to Pew). Awkward....

    I like that. I wish we had a Merkel. Star quality in a rather ordinary frame
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Mortimer said:

    IIRC it was Darling who was chancellor during the crisis.
    It was, and it was Darling who blocked the sale of Lehmans to Barclays (whether Barclays wanted to buy it is a separate question) but it was Gordon Brown who took the lead in coordinating the international response.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    A quick google finds the official US government enquiry said: The Commission concludes the financial crisis reached cataclysmic proportions with the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

    I expect there were more than four people on the commission but you'd probably dismiss them as biased for saying the crisis started in America and not in Downing Street.

    Gordon Brown saved the pound, saved the world, and saved the union. For all his manifest faults, that's a lot of fire insurance when he reaches the pearly gates.
    As long as the pearly gates haven't got any golden bits- 'cos they'd have been flogged off for tuppence by him. Still being checked in up there he wouldn't be needing a pension, which is just as well considering he taxed them and helped screw them over in the private sector.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    A quick google finds the official US government enquiry said: The Commission concludes the financial crisis reached cataclysmic proportions with the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

    I expect there were more than four people on the commission but you'd probably dismiss them as biased for saying the crisis started in America and not in Downing Street.

    Gordon Brown saved the pound, saved the world, and saved the union. For all his manifest faults, that's a lot of fire insurance when he reaches the pearly gates.
    You said "triggered" in your first comment.

    The Commission you quote in your second comment says "reached" which is a very different thing.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    welshowl said:

    I wouldn't have voted for him in a thousand years, just to be clear. However, on this, I doubt he gives the remotest flying fuck.
    Well he's won the equivalent of 5 by-elections in the past 6 months against many people's expectations. CNN and the anti-Trump media really don't help themselves, so motivated with their hatred against Trump that anything goes for them including fake news. They'd have enough ammunition if they stuck to the facts, but when they're so corrupt themselves then they really do themselves no favours whatsoever.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited July 2017
    Did any PB'ers with a hypermind account follow my betting tip (22nd Jan)?

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/post/quote/4487/Comment_1409358
    I don't understand hypermind probabilities.

    https://hypermind.com/hypermind/app.html?fwd=#welcome

    When will Donald Trump first shake hands with Vladimir Putin?

    In 2016
    1%
    First quarter 2017
    50%
    Second quarter 2017
    32%
    Third quarter 2017
    9%
    Fourth quarter 2017
    3%
    Not before 2018
    5%

    Surely the 11/1 on "Third quarter 2017" (G20 meeting is in early July) & also 20/1 on "Not before 2018" are both fantastic value?

    Why would there be an 82% chance they will meet and shake hands in the next 23 weeks?

    Does anyone know if these odds/percentages are actual prices that punters can bet at?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    stodge said:

    Well, no one, even Barclays, would buy it. Second, it was an Investment Bank so there was presumably less public exposure.

    However, the nature of its collapse became iconic, symbolic and psychologically significant and started a process.

    I suspect with hindsight many people wish it had been saved. I doubt its collapse helped McCain in the 2008 election but Obama would probably have won anyway.

    Barclays wanted to buy it but needed a shareholder vote and the Chancellor, quite rightly, wouldn't waive that rule
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Roger said:

    I like that. I wish we had a Merkel. Star quality in a rather ordinary frame
    The lady who foisted the migrant crisis on the EU. And consigned Greece to a never ending Great Depression. Don't make me laugh Roger!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,160
    hunchman said:

    The lady who foisted the migrant crisis on the EU. And consigned Greece to a never ending Great Depression. Don't make me laugh Roger!
    Lets not forget she isn't very progressive when it comes to gay rights either.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    GeoffM said:

    You said "triggered" in your first comment.

    The Commission you quote in your second comment says "reached" which is a very different thing.
    That was after about 60 seconds searching. If you want more, read the report or do your own search. The root cause was probably turning subprime mortgages into derivatives. The trigger for bringing down the global economy was Lehmans going bust. Before that, the crisis had been (more or less) contained.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Roger said:

    I like that. I wish we had a Merkel. Star quality in a rather ordinary frame
    Yes, I like Merkel too. Can totally understand why many would look to her for leadership instead of Trump.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Pong said:

    Did any PB'ers with a hypermind account follow my betting tip on 22nd Jan?

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/post/quote/4487/Comment_1409358

    Good tip but did you find a bookmaker?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Mr Ashley told the judge he would have had four to five pints within an hour, after being asked how much he had drunk by a lawyer representing Mr Blue.

    "It was a fun evening, drinking at pace," he said. "I like to get drunk. I am a power drinker."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-40517276

    I do wonder how he manages to run such a successful company. He appears to be the British Trump minus the bankruptcies and with real profits.

    I know Jeff slightly. He's a decent guy - by banking standards honest and not particularly greedy
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667
    Mortimer said:

    Do you know what, I'm sick of all this 'neeer, neeer, your side all kept lying about immigration'.

    I think sovereignty is really important. But I have also seen the negative impacts of uncontrolled EU immigration on the lives of my family who are not so privileged as to be antiquarian booksellers. I've seen their standards of living decline. I've seen competition for public services increase. Even in the poorest parts of North Wales, most of my generation will never buy a house; despite being better educated than most of their parents, who do own houses. I've seen the relentless pursuit of GDP growth at the expense of real GDP/capita growth. I've seen the long-standing social contract between employer and native employee and government and native eroded, for the sake of neo-liberal growth prospects. It makes me sick.

    I do not have anything but respect for those who have come here; but I don't think the numbers in which they've come is beneficial to our social settlement. I think it is, in fact, detrimental.

    Immigration IS a big issue. Brexit has to tackle it.

    The lie was in purporting to offer a sea change in immigration. I think you'll find it doesn't happen - the economic undercurrent that powers it is too strong.

    In fact, although I shan't live to see it, I think we're the last century to worry seriously about it. 100 years from now, the whole UK will be liquorice allsorts, and few will care.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    welshowl said:

    As long as the pearly gates haven't got any golden bits- 'cos they'd have been flogged off for tuppence by him. Still being checked in up there he wouldn't be needing a pension, which is just as well considering he taxed them and helped screw them over in the private sector.
    Nothing to do with private sector pension funds being stripped in the 1980s then?
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    RoyalBlue said:
    If it's not a double digit lead for Labour, Conservatives should take heart.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183

    The lie was in purporting to offer a sea change in immigration. I think you'll find it doesn't happen - the economic undercurrent that powers it is too strong.

    In fact, although I shan't live to see it, I think we're the last century to worry seriously about it. 100 years from now, the whole UK will be liquorice allsorts, and few will care.
    I thought you guys were for Mugs with 'Controls on Immigration' on?

    But more seriously, Im surprised you're willing to accept that Nick. Economic issues are rarely worried about when it comes to formulating Labour policy about anything....
This discussion has been closed.