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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It appears Brexiteers are finding out they can’t have their ca

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  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    surbiton said:

    We have just had an election which has seen a return to the two party system, as the hard Brexit supporting parties consolidated votes from the EEA-oriented parties. Yet the media interprets this as a rejection of Hard Brexit. It just goes to show the overwhelming dominance of Remain supporters in the media that they can get away with spinning this yarn. If the government turns round and announces a deal whereby we maintain unlimited immigration, and stay under EU law, the Conservatives will lose a major chunk of its vote and most of its activist base. We would not get back into the high 30s for 20 years, let alone get 42%.

    You can write this drivel as much as you like. You know very well the game is up. Brexit cannot happen because the numbers aren't there and the 52% were sold a pig in a poke and now the reality has begun to kick in.
    The reality has been a growing economy and record employment. Despite the framing of the Remain media, the EU have backed down from their demand about no trade talks until the divorce fee was agreed. Yesterday we found out that the big EU capture of economic activity in Euro-clearing isn't actually possible because they don't have the basic infrastructure in place.

    Many Remainers continue posting the same sort of links from arch-Remainers announcing anew they think Brexit is a disaster as if it's some sort of revelation. It is neither news, nor interesting.
    We haven't left yet.
    630 days, 15 hours 51 minutes to go
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    We have just had an election which has seen a return to the two party system, as the hard Brexit supporting parties consolidated votes from the EEA-oriented parties. Yet the media interprets this as a rejection of Hard Brexit. It just goes to show the overwhelming dominance of Remain supporters in the media that they can get away with spinning this yarn. If the government turns round and announces a deal whereby we maintain unlimited immigration, and stay under EU law, the Conservatives will lose a major chunk of its vote and most of its activist base. We would not get back into the high 30s for 20 years, let alone get 42%.

    Completely wrong interpretation of the election. The EEA-supporting parties stood still in terms of vote share and gained seats. The hard-Brexit UKIP party lost 80% of its vote.
    These are the biggest four parliamentary parties.

    The Conservatives, hard Brexit, +6
    Labour, hard Brexit, +10
    The SNP, soft Brexit, -2
    The Liberal democrats, pro-Remain, -1
    UKIP, hard Brexit, -12

    I'm sure you accidentally left that one out
    I did the big four, but we can add them in if you'd like. That gives us +7 swing towards hard Brexit parties overall.
    Labour are not really in favour of Hard Brexit; it's just convenient cover for now. Expect a full embrace of EEA when the mood turns further against hard Brexit
    Seriously? You're going for "They've got their fingers crossed behind their back" as an argument?
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Anecdote alert!!!!

    I had an interesting conversation with a customer this afternoon. He sells parts for an iconic British brand and most of them go to Europe. He said (paraphrasing) "All this noise about frictionless trading and coming up with a way to do it - we already have it and it has been working for years."

    In other words we are trying to replace the current system with an identical but different one.

    Duh!

    He is getting less happy with every passing day.
  • Options
    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    Sean_F said:

    GeoffM said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Ireland will never leave the EU. There is no point even discussing it!

    It'd be wonderful on so many levels.

    The Irish would be free of EU rule and Beverley_C would have to discover a Greek aunt so she can move there instead.
    Go to Dublin.

    See the flags of many European nations fluttering in the breeze.

    Look for the butcher's apron.

    You won't see it.
    What is the butcher's apron?
    https://www.indymedia.org.uk/en/2010/02/446556.html
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,342
    GeoffM said:

    We have just had an election which has seen a return to the two party system, as the hard Brexit supporting parties consolidated votes from the EEA-oriented parties. Yet the media interprets this as a rejection of Hard Brexit. It just goes to show the overwhelming dominance of Remain supporters in the media that they can get away with spinning this yarn. If the government turns round and announces a deal whereby we maintain unlimited immigration, and stay under EU law, the Conservatives will lose a major chunk of its vote and most of its activist base. We would not get back into the high 30s for 20 years, let alone get 42%.

    Completely wrong interpretation of the election. The EEA-supporting parties stood still in terms of vote share and gained seats. The hard-Brexit UKIP party lost 80% of its vote.
    These are the biggest four parliamentary parties.

    The Conservatives, hard Brexit, +6
    Labour, hard Brexit, +10
    The SNP, soft Brexit, -2
    The Liberal democrats, pro-Remain, -1
    UKIP, hard Brexit, -12

    I'm sure you accidentally left that one out
    I did the big four, but we can add them in if you'd like. That gives us +7 swing towards hard Brexit parties overall.
    Labour are not really in favour of Hard Brexit; it's just convenient cover for now. Expect a full embrace of EEA when the mood turns further against hard Brexit
    Seriously? You're going for "They've got their fingers crossed behind their back" as an argument?
    I'm simply stating their obvious gameplan
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,210

    HYUFD said:

    How quickly Leavers abandon the need to control immigration when they realise that the current path of the Brexit negotiations is leading down a very unpromising path.

    Perhaps they should have thought about it before pandering to xenophobia.

    It was immigration which got Leave 52% certainly and that is all down to Blair's failure to impose transition controls on migration from the new accession countries in 2004
    Reading this thread has been an education. In the event of Brexit being a woeful catastrophe it is now clear who is to blame for the ultimate fiasco! Blair for his mismanagement of pan-European migration. Brown for crashing the world economy and Corbyn for his hatred of multi-nation trading blocs (except for the Soviet Union).

    Please note, Brexit looking calamitous has absolutely nothing to do with a vanity referendum, a vanity bids to become leader of the Conservative Party and hence PM or a vanity General Election.
    It is Blair and Brown who created the forces necessary for the Brexit vote certainly
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Not sure how reliable his sources are but this looks relevant to how things could play out:

    https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/882989178610438146

    At least, they are thinking about it. Progress.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,210
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:



    The US allowed Lehman Brothers to go bust, one of its oldest and biggest investment banks

    Well, no one, even Barclays, would buy it. Second, it was an Investment Bank so there was presumably less public exposure.

    However, the nature of its collapse became iconic, symbolic and psychologically significant and started a process.

    I suspect with hindsight many people wish it had been saved. I doubt its collapse helped McCain in the 2008 election but Obama would probably have won anyway.

    Brown could have allowed Northern Rock to go bust, it had no real potential buyers in 2007 either
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Scott_P said:

    I think it's time for both sides to move beyond bitterness about the way the campaigns were fought and have the open and honest debate about our place in Europe and the world that we have been lacking.

    Any open and honest debate about our place in Europe has been poisoned by the campaigns.

    Those things can't be unsaid

    EDIT

    Also, any open and honest debate cannot include

    Boris £350m for the NHS Johnson
    Michael We have had enough of experts Gove

    Or for that matter

    Jeremy I campaigned for Remain Corbyn
    Rich, coming from Scott I couldn't be arsed to campaign for Remain P.

    The true figure for our net contributions seems to have been a bit north of 250m. The numbers aren't just of the same OOM, they actually round to the same number under a fairly aggressive rounding regime. If votes were stolen, it wasn't the votes of everybody who was swayed by the £350m claim, it was the votes of those who were swayed by that claim but who would have said, faced with a £260m claim, "naah, that's chicken feed, not worth leaving just for that, let's Remain", which I would guess is much too tiny a number to have changed the outcome. Bear in mind that these people are, in your view, thick proles; how can you credit them with the ability to discriminate between the effects of a 350m a week subvention to the nhs vs a 260m one? You can't, given that you probably believe that half of them would have to rely on guesswork if asked to arrange 260 and 350 in ascending order of size.

    The referendum wasn't won by the unfathomably evil mendacity of BoJo, it was lost by the apathy, complacence and stupidity of Remain.
    Surely, Ishmael, it was won by all those things, and more.
    With a margin of victory/defeat this small, almost anything which is a contributory factor is also a decisive factor. That is what is spectacular about this 350m nonsense, that the effect if any would be too tiny to matter.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    How quickly Leavers abandon the need to control immigration when they realise that the current path of the Brexit negotiations is leading down a very unpromising path.

    Perhaps they should have thought about it before pandering to xenophobia.

    It was immigration which got Leave 52% certainly and that is all down to Blair's failure to impose transition controls on migration from the new accession countries in 2004
    Reading this thread has been an education. In the event of Brexit being a woeful catastrophe it is now clear who is to blame for the ultimate fiasco! Blair for his mismanagement of pan-European migration. Brown for crashing the world economy and Corbyn for his hatred of multi-nation trading blocs (except for the Soviet Union).

    Please note, Brexit looking calamitous has absolutely nothing to do with a vanity referendum, a vanity bids to become leader of the Conservative Party and hence PM or a vanity General Election.
    It is Blair and Brown who created the forces necessary for the Brexit vote certainly
    Blair was indeed responsible for the fall of the Roman Empire!
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/iandunt/status/882952960619286528

    How ironic that, as we leave the EU we get an FTA with Japan that we are about to ditch so that we can try negotiating an FTA with Japan post Brexit.

    Given all the FTAs we will need to negotiate we will soon be the world leader in Trade Agreements. I wonder if there is an export market for FTAs?

    :D

  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,797

    GeoffM said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Ireland will never leave the EU. There is no point even discussing it!

    It'd be wonderful on so many levels.

    The Irish would be free of EU rule and Beverley_C would have to discover a Greek aunt so she can move there instead.
    Go to Dublin.

    See the flags of many European nations fluttering in the breeze.

    Look for the butcher's apron.

    You won't see it.
    The mask slips.

    It's ok if I call those who fly the EU flag here the traitor's apron, then?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,797
    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    We have just had an election which has seen a return to the two party system, as the hard Brexit supporting parties consolidated votes from the EEA-oriented parties. Yet the media interprets this as a rejection of Hard Brexit. It just goes to show the overwhelming dominance of Remain supporters in the media that they can get away with spinning this yarn. If the government turns round and announces a deal whereby we maintain unlimited immigration, and stay under EU law, the Conservatives will lose a major chunk of its vote and most of its activist base. We would not get back into the high 30s for 20 years, let alone get 42%.

    You can write this drivel as much as you like. You know very well the game is up. Brexit cannot happen because the numbers aren't there and the 52% were sold a pig in a poke and now the reality has begun to kick in.
    The numbers are certainly there.

    There does seem to be an odd belief that those of us who voted for Brexit did not really mean it.
    They are getting increasingly desperate. We are now going through the event horizon of Brexit, with barely 21 months left.

    Last chance.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,797
    RoyalBlue said:

    surbiton said:

    We have just had an election which has seen a return to the two party system, as the hard Brexit supporting parties consolidated votes from the EEA-oriented parties. Yet the media interprets this as a rejection of Hard Brexit. It just goes to show the overwhelming dominance of Remain supporters in the media that they can get away with spinning this yarn. If the government turns round and announces a deal whereby we maintain unlimited immigration, and stay under EU law, the Conservatives will lose a major chunk of its vote and most of its activist base. We would not get back into the high 30s for 20 years, let alone get 42%.

    You can write this drivel as much as you like. You know very well the game is up. Brexit cannot happen because the numbers aren't there and the 52% were sold a pig in a poke and now the reality has begun to kick in.
    You may both be right!
    Hold your nerve, man.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_P said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    The referendum wasn't won by the unfathomably evil mendacity of BoJo,

    It was, according to the guy running the campaign. But maybe you know more than him.
    So expose the fallacy in the argument. There may be weaker ripostes than the appeal to authority, but I can't easily think of one.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited July 2017
    I see the German police aren't taking any s##t from the soap dodgers in Hamburg.

    Pretty scary scenes in all honesty, with lots of people having to be hauled up and over a wall, rather Hillsborough-esque.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,797
    stodge said:



    I don't agree EEA-EFTA offers "nothing" on immigration.

    It does offer an emergency brake, welfare and benefit qualifications and additional reserved occupations that are permitted to be offered to nationals only. None of that was in Dave's deal. There was a transitional (temporary) brake on welfare benefits, and that was it.

    I also think that free movement would be lower just by virtue of us not being members of the EU politically, as the UK would have a different economic and political European dynamic. And if it did spike, we could pull the brake.

    I also think there'd be benefits to Europe as a whole by forming a solid non-EU European alternative for nation states to consider, which I why I could see Ireland, Sweden, and perhaps Denmark joining as well in the long-term.

    I don't disagree with much of this and recognise you and I are pretty close on this.

    I do think you're wrong on two key points - first, Britain will always be a draw for migrants. We have the English language and even if we lose ground on Germany and France, we will still be prosperous in comparison to many prospective migrants have originated. Did the 2008 crash stop the flow of EU citizens ?

    Second, and this is something not often talked about, there will be those who, on the basis of history, will find the pledges to reduce migration less than credible or convincing and may even want to see a reduction in the current numbers. Once the parameters for residency have become clearer, the question is how many will ignore the law, carry on working in the black economy living cash in hand and fail to integrate ?
    It did to an extent, actually. Net migration fell to c.175,000 post GE2010.

    Immigration is a hard thing to control in the modern world, but we need to remain vigilant to abuse.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,797
    surbiton said:

    Not sure how reliable his sources are but this looks relevant to how things could play out:

    https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/882989178610438146

    At least, they are thinking about it. Progress.
    Not reliable at all.

    He's an arch Remoaner.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    We have just had an election which has seen a return to the two party system, as the hard Brexit supporting parties consolidated votes from the EEA-oriented parties. Yet the media interprets this as a rejection of Hard Brexit. It just goes to show the overwhelming dominance of Remain supporters in the media that they can get away with spinning this yarn. If the government turns round and announces a deal whereby we maintain unlimited immigration, and stay under EU law, the Conservatives will lose a major chunk of its vote and most of its activist base. We would not get back into the high 30s for 20 years, let alone get 42%.

    You can write this drivel as much as you like. You know very well the game is up. Brexit cannot happen because the numbers aren't there and the 52% were sold a pig in a poke and now the reality has begun to kick in.
    There are no numbers needed. The votes are already done, both inside Parliament and in the country. If Parliament votes against any of the bills put forward in the QS it doesn't mean Brexit will not happen. It just means it will happen without an agreement. But it will never the less happen.
    I don't mean a Brexit in name only will not happen.

    I mean a BREXIT of any kind will not happen. People do not commit mass hara-kiri.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited July 2017
    Mr Ashley told the judge he would have had four to five pints within an hour, after being asked how much he had drunk by a lawyer representing Mr Blue.

    "It was a fun evening, drinking at pace," he said. "I like to get drunk. I am a power drinker."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-40517276

    I do wonder how he manages to run such a successful company. He appears to be the British Trump minus the bankruptcies and with real profits.
  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    surbiton said:

    We have just had an election which has seen a return to the two party system, as the hard Brexit supporting parties consolidated votes from the EEA-oriented parties. Yet the media interprets this as a rejection of Hard Brexit. It just goes to show the overwhelming dominance of Remain supporters in the media that they can get away with spinning this yarn. If the government turns round and announces a deal whereby we maintain unlimited immigration, and stay under EU law, the Conservatives will lose a major chunk of its vote and most of its activist base. We would not get back into the high 30s for 20 years, let alone get 42%.

    You can write this drivel as much as you like. You know very well the game is up. Brexit cannot happen because the numbers aren't there and the 52% were sold a pig in a poke and now the reality has begun to kick in.
    There are no numbers needed. The votes are already done, both inside Parliament and in the country. If Parliament votes against any of the bills put forward in the QS it doesn't mean Brexit will not happen. It just means it will happen without an agreement. But it will never the less happen.
    Sorry to hear of your health problems, good luck Richard T.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ishmael_Z said:

    So expose the fallacy in the argument. There may be weaker ripostes than the appeal to authority, but I can't easily think of one.

    It's not an appeal to authority, it's an expose of the fallacy in your argument.

    You said the lie didn't win the vote (an assertion with no basis)

    The guy who created the lie said it was essential to the win. Your baseless assertion does not match the facts.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    We have just had an election which has seen a return to the two party system, as the hard Brexit supporting parties consolidated votes from the EEA-oriented parties. Yet the media interprets this as a rejection of Hard Brexit. It just goes to show the overwhelming dominance of Remain supporters in the media that they can get away with spinning this yarn. If the government turns round and announces a deal whereby we maintain unlimited immigration, and stay under EU law, the Conservatives will lose a major chunk of its vote and most of its activist base. We would not get back into the high 30s for 20 years, let alone get 42%.

    You can write this drivel as much as you like. You know very well the game is up. Brexit cannot happen because the numbers aren't there and the 52% were sold a pig in a poke and now the reality has begun to kick in.
    There are no numbers needed. The votes are already done, both inside Parliament and in the country. If Parliament votes against any of the bills put forward in the QS it doesn't mean Brexit will not happen. It just means it will happen without an agreement. But it will never the less happen.
    I don't mean a Brexit in name only will not happen.

    I mean a BREXIT of any kind will not happen. People do not commit mass hara-kiri.
    However, people do quite often secede from bigger political entities.
  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/iandunt/status/882952960619286528

    How ironic that, as we leave the EU we get an FTA with Japan that we are about to ditch so that we can try negotiating an FTA with Japan post Brexit.

    Given all the FTAs we will need to negotiate we will soon be the world leader in Trade Agreements. I wonder if there is an export market for FTAs?

    :D

    The best lie of the lot told by the Remainers was that we'd be back of the queue in negotiating an FTA with the USA. Precisely the reverse turns out to be the truth.
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Apologies for the moan. It does actually help :)

    This place must be a tonic then ;)

    I am sorry to hear you are poorly and I hope it all gets sorted quickly for you

  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    hunchman said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/iandunt/status/882952960619286528

    How ironic that, as we leave the EU we get an FTA with Japan that we are about to ditch so that we can try negotiating an FTA with Japan post Brexit.

    Given all the FTAs we will need to negotiate we will soon be the world leader in Trade Agreements. I wonder if there is an export market for FTAs?

    :D

    The best lie of the lot told by the Remainers was that we'd be back of the queue in negotiating an FTA with the USA. Precisely the reverse turns out to be the truth.
    Really? How is our US FTA coming along then? Bear in mind it was the govt of the US who told us that we would be back of the line.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    Scott_P said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    So expose the fallacy in the argument. There may be weaker ripostes than the appeal to authority, but I can't easily think of one.

    It's not an appeal to authority, it's an expose of the fallacy in your argument.

    You said the lie didn't win the vote (an assertion with no basis)

    The guy who created the lie said it was essential to the win. Your baseless assertion does not match the facts.
    I think you lost because your cause was a poor one.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    To be fair, it must be tricky to find a hotel room for Trump given his alleged interesting needs.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    RoyalBlue said:

    surbiton said:

    We have just had an election which has seen a return to the two party system, as the hard Brexit supporting parties consolidated votes from the EEA-oriented parties. Yet the media interprets this as a rejection of Hard Brexit. It just goes to show the overwhelming dominance of Remain supporters in the media that they can get away with spinning this yarn. If the government turns round and announces a deal whereby we maintain unlimited immigration, and stay under EU law, the Conservatives will lose a major chunk of its vote and most of its activist base. We would not get back into the high 30s for 20 years, let alone get 42%.

    You can write this drivel as much as you like. You know very well the game is up. Brexit cannot happen because the numbers aren't there and the 52% were sold a pig in a poke and now the reality has begun to kick in.
    You may both be right!
    Hold your nerve, man.
    Indeed. Our business has 80%+ and growing outside the EU. By it's nature the odd delay in customs by a day or two is "meh" not a big deal. The vast majority of the 20% is part of a world contract so utter calamity would have to strike before it were threatened. The decline in Sterling since June 23rd 2016 has been an unalloyed good thing, sales and profits are up.

    A further steep drop and a rise in interest rates that would accompany it would be greeted by me dancing in the street for joy for reasons too boring to go into here other than one word (pensions).

    It may not be typical but it's my reality, and I suspect not wholly alien for provincial manufacturers.
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    surbiton said:

    Not sure how reliable his sources are but this looks relevant to how things could play out:

    https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/882989178610438146

    At least, they are thinking about it. Progress.
    Given that recent press reports have had EU govts saying that we can back out from Brexit at any time, I do wonder where they are getting their legal advice from.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,047

    hunchman said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/iandunt/status/882952960619286528

    How ironic that, as we leave the EU we get an FTA with Japan that we are about to ditch so that we can try negotiating an FTA with Japan post Brexit.

    Given all the FTAs we will need to negotiate we will soon be the world leader in Trade Agreements. I wonder if there is an export market for FTAs?

    :D

    The best lie of the lot told by the Remainers was that we'd be back of the queue in negotiating an FTA with the USA. Precisely the reverse turns out to be the truth.
    Really? How is our US FTA coming along then? Bear in mind it was the govt of the US who told us that we would be back of the line.
    Since we haven't left the EU yet we cannot officially negotiate any FTAs. Do please keep up.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,047

    Apologies for the moan. It does actually help :)

    This place must be a tonic then ;)

    I am sorry to hear you are poorly and I hope it all gets sorted quickly for you

    Thankyou. And now I feel bad about sniping at you. :( Apologies.
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    hunchman said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/iandunt/status/882952960619286528

    How ironic that, as we leave the EU we get an FTA with Japan that we are about to ditch so that we can try negotiating an FTA with Japan post Brexit.

    Given all the FTAs we will need to negotiate we will soon be the world leader in Trade Agreements. I wonder if there is an export market for FTAs?

    :D

    The best lie of the lot told by the Remainers was that we'd be back of the queue in negotiating an FTA with the USA. Precisely the reverse turns out to be the truth.
    Really? How is our US FTA coming along then? Bear in mind it was the govt of the US who told us that we would be back of the line.
    Since we haven't left the EU yet we cannot officially negotiate any FTAs. Do please keep up.
    I thought I would reply to a deliberate inaccuracy with one of my one. Why not? What is good for the goose is good for the gander :D
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    Apologies for the moan. It does actually help :)

    This place must be a tonic then ;)

    I am sorry to hear you are poorly and I hope it all gets sorted quickly for you

    Thankyou. And now I feel bad about sniping at you. :( Apologies.
    Yes, get well.
  • Options
    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113



    GeoffM said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Ireland will never leave the EU. There is no point even discussing it!

    It'd be wonderful on so many levels.

    The Irish would be free of EU rule and Beverley_C would have to discover a Greek aunt so she can move there instead.
    Go to Dublin.

    See the flags of many European nations fluttering in the breeze.

    Look for the butcher's apron.

    You won't see it.
    The mask slips.

    It's ok if I call those who fly the EU flag here the traitor's apron, then?
    Childish comment, but sadly typical of you.

    My point is that that's what the Irish call the Union Jack. To think they will leave the EU to rejoin a union with what they see as their former oppressor is beyond swivel-eyed.

    ...if I could think what that might be - on stalks perhaps?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,797

    hunchman said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/iandunt/status/882952960619286528

    How ironic that, as we leave the EU we get an FTA with Japan that we are about to ditch so that we can try negotiating an FTA with Japan post Brexit.

    Given all the FTAs we will need to negotiate we will soon be the world leader in Trade Agreements. I wonder if there is an export market for FTAs?

    :D

    The best lie of the lot told by the Remainers was that we'd be back of the queue in negotiating an FTA with the USA. Precisely the reverse turns out to be the truth.
    Really? How is our US FTA coming along then? Bear in mind it was the govt of the US who told us that we would be back of the line.
    No one is going to agree a trade deal with us until we're actually out.

    You know this. This is a ruse to stop us leaving.
  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    On another note, a lot of geophysical activity this week right around the world. Are we setting up for a big one somewhere in terms of a large volcanic eruption or big earthquake? It's exactly what we should come to expect with the sun beginning to enter a grand solar minimum. All the worst earthquakes / volcanic eruptions occur in times of grand solar minimums such as we're now entering. A rupture of the Cascadia fault in the Pacific NW of the US could produce an earthquake between 8.7 and 9.2 on the Richter scale with a corresponding tsunami taking out a large chunk of that coastline. We've had a lot of activity elsewhere in the ring of fire (New Zealand, Japan, Chile, Sumatra) but not there. And over 310 years since the last major earthquake, with a normal cycle length of around 240 years, its certainly due. Another possibility is the New Madrid fault in the centre of the US, which last had a serious quake in 1812 around the time of the last grand solar minimum on its 206 year cycle. Yellowstone continues to get a lot of attention, yes on its 600-700,000 year cycle its due, but that could mean anything between an imminent eruption and nothing happening for the next 10-15,000 years.

    I think something of a substantial nature will happen over the next 7 years as we approach the 2024 grand solar minimum, but where and what is anyone's guess.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,047
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    We have just had an election which has seen a return to the two party system, as the hard Brexit supporting parties consolidated votes from the EEA-oriented parties. Yet the media interprets this as a rejection of Hard Brexit. It just goes to show the overwhelming dominance of Remain supporters in the media that they can get away with spinning this yarn. If the government turns round and announces a deal whereby we maintain unlimited immigration, and stay under EU law, the Conservatives will lose a major chunk of its vote and most of its activist base. We would not get back into the high 30s for 20 years, let alone get 42%.

    You can write this drivel as much as you like. You know very well the game is up. Brexit cannot happen because the numbers aren't there and the 52% were sold a pig in a poke and now the reality has begun to kick in.
    There are no numbers needed. The votes are already done, both inside Parliament and in the country. If Parliament votes against any of the bills put forward in the QS it doesn't mean Brexit will not happen. It just means it will happen without an agreement. But it will never the less happen.
    I don't mean a Brexit in name only will not happen.

    I mean a BREXIT of any kind will not happen. People do not commit mass hara-kiri.
    And how exactly do they stop it? We have had the vote in Parliament. We have had the vote in the country. Is it your belief we should keep voting until we get the right result for you?

    I am afraid you are completely blinded by your own very particular view of Brexit. Hopefully this means that when it is not a disaster you will be much happier having had that weight lifted off you.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_P said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    So expose the fallacy in the argument. There may be weaker ripostes than the appeal to authority, but I can't easily think of one.

    It's not an appeal to authority, it's an expose of the fallacy in your argument.

    You said the lie didn't win the vote (an assertion with no basis)

    The guy who created the lie said it was essential to the win. Your baseless assertion does not match the facts.
    Yes, but you cannot attribute any weight to the fact that it was a lie unless you assert that the same claim but with the correct figure would have swayed significantly fewer votes than the lie did. Given the relative closeness of the numbers, and the vagueness with which we all (and especially the less well educated, which is what we are on your own case talking about) conceptually grasp sums of money of this magnitude, that assertion can pretty much be rejected out of hand.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,210
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    How quickly Leavers abandon the need to control immigration when they realise that the current path of the Brexit negotiations is leading down a very unpromising path.

    Perhaps they should have thought about it before pandering to xenophobia.

    It was immigration which got Leave 52% certainly and that is all down to Blair's failure to impose transition controls on migration from the new accession countries in 2004
    Reading this thread has been an education. In the event of Brexit being a woeful catastrophe it is now clear who is to blame for the ultimate fiasco! Blair for his mismanagement of pan-European migration. Brown for crashing the world economy and Corbyn for his hatred of multi-nation trading blocs (except for the Soviet Union).

    Please note, Brexit looking calamitous has absolutely nothing to do with a vanity referendum, a vanity bids to become leader of the Conservative Party and hence PM or a vanity General Election.
    It is Blair and Brown who created the forces necessary for the Brexit vote certainly
    Blair was indeed responsible for the fall of the Roman Empire!
    Funny how Schroeder, Chirac, Berlusconi and Aznar all agreed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 and none have had as big a rise in an anti EU party (and hence a Leave vote) as we have had with the rise of UKIP after Blair failed to impose transition controls
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    edited July 2017



    GeoffM said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Ireland will never leave the EU. There is no point even discussing it!

    It'd be wonderful on so many levels.

    The Irish would be free of EU rule and Beverley_C would have to discover a Greek aunt so she can move there instead.
    Go to Dublin.

    See the flags of many European nations fluttering in the breeze.

    Look for the butcher's apron.

    You won't see it.
    The mask slips.

    It's ok if I call those who fly the EU flag here the traitor's apron, then?
    Childish comment, but sadly typical of you.

    My point is that that's what the Irish call the Union Jack. To think they will leave the EU to rejoin a union with what they see as their former oppressor is beyond swivel-eyed.

    ...if I could think what that might be - on stalks perhaps?
    It's a specific type of Irish, violent Republicans and their supporters, who use that expression.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,797
    welshowl said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    surbiton said:

    We have just had an election which has seen a return to the two party system, as the hard Brexit supporting parties consolidated votes from the EEA-oriented parties. Yet the media interprets this as a rejection of Hard Brexit. It just goes to show the overwhelming dominance of Remain supporters in the media that they can get away with spinning this yarn. If the government turns round and announces a deal whereby we maintain unlimited immigration, and stay under EU law, the Conservatives will lose a major chunk of its vote and most of its activist base. We would not get back into the high 30s for 20 years, let alone get 42%.

    You can write this drivel as much as you like. You know very well the game is up. Brexit cannot happen because the numbers aren't there and the 52% were sold a pig in a poke and now the reality has begun to kick in.
    You may both be right!
    Hold your nerve, man.
    Indeed. Our business has 80%+ and growing outside the EU. By it's nature the odd delay in customs by a day or two is "meh" not a big deal. The vast majority of the 20% is part of a world contract so utter calamity would have to strike before it were threatened. The decline in Sterling since June 23rd 2016 has been an unalloyed good thing, sales and profits are up.

    A further steep drop and a rise in interest rates that would accompany it would be greeted by me dancing in the street for joy for reasons too boring to go into here other than one word (pensions).

    It may not be typical but it's my reality, and I suspect not wholly alien for provincial manufacturers.
    Yes, people are getting far too jittery about the fallout from the election result and the orgy of hubristic excitement coming from Camp Remain.

  • Options
    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    Sean_F said:



    GeoffM said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Ireland will never leave the EU. There is no point even discussing it!

    It'd be wonderful on so many levels.

    The Irish would be free of EU rule and Beverley_C would have to discover a Greek aunt so she can move there instead.
    Go to Dublin.

    See the flags of many European nations fluttering in the breeze.

    Look for the butcher's apron.

    You won't see it.
    The mask slips.

    It's ok if I call those who fly the EU flag here the traitor's apron, then?
    Childish comment, but sadly typical of you.

    My point is that that's what the Irish call the Union Jack. To think they will leave the EU to rejoin a union with what they see as their former oppressor is beyond swivel-eyed.

    ...if I could think what that might be - on stalks perhaps?
    It's a specific type of Irish, violent Republicans, who use that expression.
    Still don't see it flying in Dublin. Maybe all the flagpoles are controlled by a cabal of violent Irish Republicans.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,797



    GeoffM said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Ireland will never leave the EU. There is no point even discussing it!

    It'd be wonderful on so many levels.

    The Irish would be free of EU rule and Beverley_C would have to discover a Greek aunt so she can move there instead.
    Go to Dublin.

    See the flags of many European nations fluttering in the breeze.

    Look for the butcher's apron.

    You won't see it.
    The mask slips.

    It's ok if I call those who fly the EU flag here the traitor's apron, then?
    Childish comment, but sadly typical of you.

    My point is that that's what the Irish call the Union Jack. To think they will leave the EU to rejoin a union with what they see as their former oppressor is beyond swivel-eyed.

    ...if I could think what that might be - on stalks perhaps?
    I don't think you had a point. You just like to troll.
  • Options
    CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    We have just had an election which has seen a return to the two party system, as the hard Brexit supporting parties consolidated votes from the EEA-oriented parties. Yet the media interprets this as a rejection of Hard Brexit. It just goes to show the overwhelming dominance of Remain supporters in the media that they can get away with spinning this yarn. If the government turns round and announces a deal whereby we maintain unlimited immigration, and stay under EU law, the Conservatives will lose a major chunk of its vote and most of its activist base. We would not get back into the high 30s for 20 years, let alone get 42%.

    You can write this drivel as much as you like. You know very well the game is up. Brexit cannot happen because the numbers aren't there and the 52% were sold a pig in a poke and now the reality has begun to kick in.
    There are no numbers needed. The votes are already done, both inside Parliament and in the country. If Parliament votes against any of the bills put forward in the QS it doesn't mean Brexit will not happen. It just means it will happen without an agreement. But it will never the less happen.
    I don't mean a Brexit in name only will not happen.

    I mean a BREXIT of any kind will not happen. People do not commit mass hara-kiri.
    And how exactly do they stop it? We have had the vote in Parliament. We have had the vote in the country. Is it your belief we should keep voting until we get the right result for you?

    I am afraid you are completely blinded by your own very particular view of Brexit. Hopefully this means that when it is not a disaster you will be much happier having had that weight lifted off you.
    A lifetime of denial and hate beckons for those who cannot accept and understand Brexit.
  • Options
    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113



    GeoffM said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Ireland will never leave the EU. There is no point even discussing it!

    It'd be wonderful on so many levels.

    The Irish would be free of EU rule and Beverley_C would have to discover a Greek aunt so she can move there instead.
    Go to Dublin.

    See the flags of many European nations fluttering in the breeze.

    Look for the butcher's apron.

    You won't see it.
    The mask slips.

    It's ok if I call those who fly the EU flag here the traitor's apron, then?
    Childish comment, but sadly typical of you.

    My point is that that's what the Irish call the Union Jack. To think they will leave the EU to rejoin a union with what they see as their former oppressor is beyond swivel-eyed.

    ...if I could think what that might be - on stalks perhaps?
    I don't think you had a point. You just like to troll.
    No, I just like to point out your idiocy.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    Sean_F said:



    GeoffM said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Ireland will never leave the EU. There is no point even discussing it!

    It'd be wonderful on so many levels.

    The Irish would be free of EU rule and Beverley_C would have to discover a Greek aunt so she can move there instead.
    Go to Dublin.

    See the flags of many European nations fluttering in the breeze.

    Look for the butcher's apron.

    You won't see it.
    The mask slips.

    It's ok if I call those who fly the EU flag here the traitor's apron, then?
    Childish comment, but sadly typical of you.

    My point is that that's what the Irish call the Union Jack. To think they will leave the EU to rejoin a union with what they see as their former oppressor is beyond swivel-eyed.

    ...if I could think what that might be - on stalks perhaps?
    It's a specific type of Irish, violent Republicans, who use that expression.
    Still don't see it flying in Dublin. Maybe all the flagpoles are controlled by a cabal of violent Irish Republicans.
    I'm not sure why one would expect to see it flying in Dublin. It flies from big hotels, but one would usually expect the Irish flag to fly from public buildings.
  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    hunchman said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/iandunt/status/882952960619286528

    How ironic that, as we leave the EU we get an FTA with Japan that we are about to ditch so that we can try negotiating an FTA with Japan post Brexit.

    Given all the FTAs we will need to negotiate we will soon be the world leader in Trade Agreements. I wonder if there is an export market for FTAs?

    :D

    The best lie of the lot told by the Remainers was that we'd be back of the queue in negotiating an FTA with the USA. Precisely the reverse turns out to be the truth.
    Really? How is our US FTA coming along then? Bear in mind it was the govt of the US who told us that we would be back of the line.
    That was Obama giving Cameron a helping hand in the referendum campaign! Do keep up to date instead of living in the past!
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,924

    Scott_P said:

    I think it's time for both sides to move beyond bitterness about the way the campaigns were fought and have the open and honest debate about our place in Europe and the world that we have been lacking.

    Any open and honest debate about our place in Europe has been poisoned by the campaigns.

    Those things can't be unsaid

    EDIT

    Also, any open and honest debate cannot include

    Boris £350m for the NHS Johnson
    Michael We have had enough of experts Gove

    Or for that matter

    Jeremy I campaigned for Remain Corbyn
    It's true.

    If some of these people were to own up to the fibs to which they have been a party, there might be some chance of peace and reconciliation. As it is, we're stuck with anger and bitterness.

    Taint healthy.
    I've yet to hear anyone on the Remain side apologise for their intentionally incorrect economic forecasts. We were told we would face the "immediate" loss of 500,000 jobs. That hasn't happened, has it?
    I really would caution waiting till we are out and and under what trading conditions before claiming things "haven't happened". If 500,000 do lose their jobs it's not going to be much comfort that it happened a couple of years later than predicted.

    On the same basis I am happy to wait till Brexit to see if the NHS gets an extra £350 million a week before calling it a lie.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Read the story properly and it's a weird nothingburger.

    Buzzfeed phoned some hotels and asked if Trump was staying there. They all said no.

    AP say that he's staying at the Senate guesthouse and his staff at the consulate, not at a hotel.

    True; you have to read to the final line to find out that there's no story. But there's still no story.
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,819
    edited July 2017

    We have just had an election which has seen a return to the two party system, as the hard Brexit supporting parties consolidated votes from the EEA-oriented parties. Yet the media interprets this as a rejection of Hard Brexit. It just goes to show the overwhelming dominance of Remain supporters in the media that they can get away with spinning this yarn. If the government turns round and announces a deal whereby we maintain unlimited immigration, and stay under EU law, the Conservatives will lose a major chunk of its vote and most of its activist base. We would not get back into the high 30s for 20 years, let alone get 42%.

    Completely wrong interpretation of the election. The EEA-supporting parties stood still in terms of vote share and gained seats. The hard-Brexit UKIP party lost 80% of its vote.
    These are the biggest four parliamentary parties.
    The Conservatives, hard Brexit, +6
    Labour, hard Brexit "whatever you want" Brexit, +10
    The SNP, soft Brexit, -2
    The Liberal democrats, pro-Remain, -1
    UKIP, hard-Brexit, -12.

    While Labour were officially Hard Brexit, they managed to appear to be all things to all people, even receiving funding from More United.

  • Options
    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Well, practically it's not just a case of finding a single room for the POTUS, usually they book out entire floors for all the aides and security personel.
  • Options
    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:



    GeoffM said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Ireland will never leave the EU. There is no point even discussing it!

    It'd be wonderful on so many levels.

    The Irish would be free of EU rule and Beverley_C would have to discover a Greek aunt so she can move there instead.
    Go to Dublin.

    See the flags of many European nations fluttering in the breeze.

    Look for the butcher's apron.

    You won't see it.
    The mask slips.

    It's ok if I call those who fly the EU flag here the traitor's apron, then?
    Childish comment, but sadly typical of you.

    My point is that that's what the Irish call the Union Jack. To think they will leave the EU to rejoin a union with what they see as their former oppressor is beyond swivel-eyed.

    ...if I could think what that might be - on stalks perhaps?
    It's a specific type of Irish, violent Republicans, who use that expression.
    Still don't see it flying in Dublin. Maybe all the flagpoles are controlled by a cabal of violent Irish Republicans.
    I'm not sure why one would expect to see it flying in Dublin. It flies from big hotels, but one would usually expect the Irish flag to fly from public buildings.
    Do try to keep up. Dublin is full of flags of many nations. Except the UK.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,797



    GeoffM said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Ireland will never leave the EU. There is no point even discussing it!

    It'd be wonderful on so many levels.

    The Irish would be free of EU rule and Beverley_C would have to discover a Greek aunt so she can move there instead.
    Go to Dublin.

    See the flags of many European nations fluttering in the breeze.

    Look for the butcher's apron.

    You won't see it.
    The mask slips.

    It's ok if I call those who fly the EU flag here the traitor's apron, then?
    Childish comment, but sadly typical of you.

    My point is that that's what the Irish call the Union Jack. To think they will leave the EU to rejoin a union with what they see as their former oppressor is beyond swivel-eyed.

    ...if I could think what that might be - on stalks perhaps?
    I don't think you had a point. You just like to troll.
    No, I just like to point out your idiocy.
    I can only aspire to your levels of insight and intelligence.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    GeoffM said:

    Read the story properly and it's a weird nothingburger.

    Buzzfeed phoned some hotels and asked if Trump was staying there. They all said no.

    AP say that he's staying at the Senate guesthouse and his staff at the consulate, not at a hotel.

    True; you have to read to the final line to find out that there's no story. But there's still no story.
    Buzzfeed fake news again....
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:



    GeoffM said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Ireland will never leave the EU. There is no point even discussing it!

    It'd be wonderful on so many levels.

    The Irish would be free of EU rule and Beverley_C would have to discover a Greek aunt so she can move there instead.
    Go to Dublin.

    See the flags of many European nations fluttering in the breeze.

    Look for the butcher's apron.

    You won't see it.
    The mask slips.

    It's ok if I call those who fly the EU flag here the traitor's apron, then?
    Childish comment, but sadly typical of you.

    My point is that that's what the Irish call the Union Jack. To think they will leave the EU to rejoin a union with what they see as their former oppressor is beyond swivel-eyed.

    ...if I could think what that might be - on stalks perhaps?
    It's a specific type of Irish, violent Republicans, who use that expression.
    Still don't see it flying in Dublin. Maybe all the flagpoles are controlled by a cabal of violent Irish Republicans.
    I'm not sure why one would expect to see it flying in Dublin. It flies from big hotels, but one would usually expect the Irish flag to fly from public buildings.
    Do try to keep up. Dublin is full of flags of many nations. Except the UK.
    Do try to stop being a twat. I've been there.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    How quickly Leavers abandon the need to control immigration when they realise that the current path of the Brexit negotiations is leading down a very unpromising path.

    Perhaps they should have thought about it before pandering to xenophobia.

    It was immigration which got Leave 52% certainly and that is all down to Blair's failure to impose transition controls on migration from the new accession countries in 2004
    Reading this thread has been an education. In the event of Brexit being a woeful catastrophe it is now clear who is to blame for the ultimate fiasco! Blair for his mismanagement of pan-European migration. Brown for crashing the world economy and Corbyn for his hatred of multi-nation trading blocs (except for the Soviet Union).

    Please note, Brexit looking calamitous has absolutely nothing to do with a vanity referendum, a vanity bids to become leader of the Conservative Party and hence PM or a vanity General Election.
    It is Blair and Brown who created the forces necessary for the Brexit vote certainly
    Blair was indeed responsible for the fall of the Roman Empire!
    Funny how Schroeder, Chirac, Berlusconi and Aznar all agreed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 and none have had as big a rise in an anti EU party (and hence a Leave vote) as we have had with the rise of UKIP after Blair failed to impose transition controls
    Not sure those are good examples. Both France and Italy have anti EU parties with bigger voteshares than the kipppers ever managed here.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,418
    edited July 2017
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    How quickly Leavers abandon the need to control immigration when they realise that the current path of the Brexit negotiations is leading down a very unpromising path.

    Perhaps they should have thought about it before pandering to xenophobia.

    It was immigration which got Leave 52% certainly and that is all down to Blair's failure to impose transition controls on migration from the new accession countries in 2004
    Reading this thread has been an education. In the event of Brexit being a woeful catastrophe it is now clear who is to blame for the ultimate fiasco! Blair for his mismanagement of pan-European migration. Brown for crashing the world economy and Corbyn for his hatred of multi-nation trading blocs (except for the Soviet Union).

    Please note, Brexit looking calamitous has absolutely nothing to do with a vanity referendum, a vanity bids to become leader of the Conservative Party and hence PM or a vanity General Election.
    It is Blair and Brown who created the forces necessary for the Brexit vote certainly
    Errr? No, Mr Cameron called the referendum and Mr Johnson inadvertently won it in a bid to become Prime Minister. What has happened since the vote has been bewildering! Mrs May's triggering Article 50 on some random day she picked out of thin air without first getting even her first duck in order was nothing short of dereliction of duty!
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited July 2017
    rpjs said:

    Well, practically it's not just a case of finding a single room for the POTUS, usually they book out entire floors for all the aides and security personel.
    Yes, but I still found the story pretty funny. It's also winding up Trump supporters as well, which is quite amusing.
  • Options
    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:



    GeoffM said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Ireland will never leave the EU. There is no point even discussing it!

    It'd be wonderful on so many levels.

    The Irish would be free of EU rule and Beverley_C would have to discover a Greek aunt so she can move there instead.
    Go to Dublin.

    See the flags of many European nations fluttering in the breeze.

    Look for the butcher's apron.

    You won't see it.
    The mask slips.

    It's ok if I call those who fly the EU flag here the traitor's apron, then?
    Childish comment, but sadly typical of you.

    My point is that that's what the Irish call the Union Jack. To think they will leave the EU to rejoin a union with what they see as their former oppressor is beyond swivel-eyed.

    ...if I could think what that might be - on stalks perhaps?
    It's a specific type of Irish, violent Republicans, who use that expression.
    Still don't see it flying in Dublin. Maybe all the flagpoles are controlled by a cabal of violent Irish Republicans.
    I'm not sure why one would expect to see it flying in Dublin. It flies from big hotels, but one would usually expect the Irish flag to fly from public buildings.
    Do try to keep up. Dublin is full of flags of many nations. Except the UK.
    Do try to stop being a twat. I've been there.
    Perhaps you've seen the bullet holes in the facade of the General Post Office. Ask yourself why they haven't been repaired. Then ask yourself if the Irish people would want reunification with the nation that put them there.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    GeoffM said:

    Read the story properly and it's a weird nothingburger.

    Buzzfeed phoned some hotels and asked if Trump was staying there. They all said no.

    AP say that he's staying at the Senate guesthouse and his staff at the consulate, not at a hotel.

    True; you have to read to the final line to find out that there's no story. But there's still no story.
    Buzzfeed fake news again....
    Tbf, UK Buzzfeed actually isn't that bad.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:



    GeoffM said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Ireland will never leave the EU. There is no point even discussing it!

    It'd be wonderful on so many levels.

    The Irish would be free of EU rule and Beverley_C would have to discover a Greek aunt so she can move there instead.
    Go to Dublin.

    See the flags of many European nations fluttering in the breeze.

    Look for the butcher's apron.

    You won't see it.
    The mask slips.

    It's ok if I call those who fly the EU flag here the traitor's apron, then?
    Childish comment, but sadly typical of you.

    My point is that that's what the Irish call the Union Jack. To think they will leave the EU to rejoin a union with what they see as their former oppressor is beyond swivel-eyed.

    ...if I could think what that might be - on stalks perhaps?
    It's a specific type of Irish, violent Republicans, who use that expression.
    Still don't see it flying in Dublin. Maybe all the flagpoles are controlled by a cabal of violent Irish Republicans.
    I'm not sure why one would expect to see it flying in Dublin. It flies from big hotels, but one would usually expect the Irish flag to fly from public buildings.
    Do try to keep up. Dublin is full of flags of many nations. Except the UK.
    Here's a nice picture of the Union Flag flying across the road from Leinster House in Dublin:

    http://img2.thejournal.ie/inline/137824/original/?width=600&version=137824
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited July 2017

    GeoffM said:

    Read the story properly and it's a weird nothingburger.

    Buzzfeed phoned some hotels and asked if Trump was staying there. They all said no.

    AP say that he's staying at the Senate guesthouse and his staff at the consulate, not at a hotel.

    True; you have to read to the final line to find out that there's no story. But there's still no story.
    Buzzfeed fake news again....
    Tbf, UK Buzzfeed actually isn't that bad.
    Erhhh.....remember that story about the oh so innocent grandmother being deported....
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    rpjs said:

    Well, practically it's not just a case of finding a single room for the POTUS, usually they book out entire floors for all the aides and security personel.
    Yes, but I still found the story pretty funny. It's also winding up Trump supporters as well, which is quite amusing.
    We're getting fed up with the general climate of lefty fake news, not the details of the made up stories themselves.
  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    We have just had an election which has seen a return to the two party system, as the hard Brexit supporting parties consolidated votes from the EEA-oriented parties. Yet the media interprets this as a rejection of Hard Brexit. It just goes to show the overwhelming dominance of Remain supporters in the media that they can get away with spinning this yarn. If the government turns round and announces a deal whereby we maintain unlimited immigration, and stay under EU law, the Conservatives will lose a major chunk of its vote and most of its activist base. We would not get back into the high 30s for 20 years, let alone get 42%.

    You can write this drivel as much as you like. You know very well the game is up. Brexit cannot happen because the numbers aren't there and the 52% were sold a pig in a poke and now the reality has begun to kick in.
    There are no numbers needed. The votes are already done, both inside Parliament and in the country. If Parliament votes against any of the bills put forward in the QS it doesn't mean Brexit will not happen. It just means it will happen without an agreement. But it will never the less happen.
    I don't mean a Brexit in name only will not happen.

    I mean a BREXIT of any kind will not happen. People do not commit mass hara-kiri.
    And how exactly do they stop it? We have had the vote in Parliament. We have had the vote in the country. Is it your belief we should keep voting until we get the right result for you?

    I am afraid you are completely blinded by your own very particular view of Brexit. Hopefully this means that when it is not a disaster you will be much happier having had that weight lifted off you.
    A lifetime of denial and hate beckons for those who cannot accept and understand Brexit.
    Goodness knows what they'll be like when their beloved edifice collapses! The denial will be even bigger then.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    GeoffM said:

    Read the story properly and it's a weird nothingburger.

    Buzzfeed phoned some hotels and asked if Trump was staying there. They all said no.

    AP say that he's staying at the Senate guesthouse and his staff at the consulate, not at a hotel.

    True; you have to read to the final line to find out that there's no story. But there's still no story.
    Buzzfeed fake news again....
    Tbf, UK Buzzfeed actually isn't that bad.
    Erhhh.....remember that story about the oh so innocent grandmother being deported....
    Yes, that didn't end up as intended!
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    GeoffM said:

    Read the story properly and it's a weird nothingburger.

    Buzzfeed phoned some hotels and asked if Trump was staying there. They all said no.

    AP say that he's staying at the Senate guesthouse and his staff at the consulate, not at a hotel.

    True; you have to read to the final line to find out that there's no story. But there's still no story.
    Buzzfeed fake news again....
    Tbf, UK Buzzfeed actually isn't that bad.
    Erhhh.....remember that story about the oh so innocent grandmother being deported....
    Are you talking about the one from Singapore?

  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:



    GeoffM said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Ireland will never leave the EU. There is no point even discussing it!

    It'd be wonderful on so many levels.

    The Irish would be free of EU rule and Beverley_C would have to discover a Greek aunt so she can move there instead.
    Go to Dublin.

    See the flags of many European nations fluttering in the breeze.

    Look for the butcher's apron.

    You won't see it.
    The mask slips.

    It's ok if I call those who fly the EU flag here the traitor's apron, then?
    Childish comment, but sadly typical of you.

    My point is that that's what the Irish call the Union Jack. To think they will leave the EU to rejoin a union with what they see as their former oppressor is beyond swivel-eyed.

    ...if I could think what that might be - on stalks perhaps?
    It's a specific type of Irish, violent Republicans, who use that expression.
    Still don't see it flying in Dublin. Maybe all the flagpoles are controlled by a cabal of violent Irish Republicans.
    I'm not sure why one would expect to see it flying in Dublin. It flies from big hotels, but one would usually expect the Irish flag to fly from public buildings.
    Do try to keep up. Dublin is full of flags of many nations. Except the UK.
    Do try to stop being a twat. I've been there.
    Perhaps you've seen the bullet holes in the facade of the General Post Office. Ask yourself why they haven't been repaired.
    Bone idle council repairmen always in the pub across the road?

  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:



    The US allowed Lehman Brothers to go bust, one of its oldest and biggest investment banks

    Well, no one, even Barclays, would buy it. Second, it was an Investment Bank so there was presumably less public exposure.

    However, the nature of its collapse became iconic, symbolic and psychologically significant and started a process.

    I suspect with hindsight many people wish it had been saved. I doubt its collapse helped McCain in the 2008 election but Obama would probably have won anyway.

    iirc the American attempt to sell to Barclays (I almost wrote foist it on) was blocked by the government. Many observers believe the Americans letting Lehman's go bust is what triggered the global crisis.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:



    GeoffM said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Ireland will never leave the EU. There is no point even discussing it!

    It'd be wonderful on so many levels.

    The Irish would be free of EU rule and Beverley_C would have to discover a Greek aunt so she can move there instead.
    Go to Dublin.

    See the flags of many European nations fluttering in the breeze.

    Look for the butcher's apron.

    You won't see it.
    The mask slips.

    It's ok if I call those who fly the EU flag here the traitor's apron, then?
    Childish comment, but sadly typical of you.

    My point is that that's what the Irish call the Union Jack. To think they will leave the EU to rejoin a union with what they see as their former oppressor is beyond swivel-eyed.

    ...if I could think what that might be - on stalks perhaps?
    It's a specific type of Irish, violent Republicans, who use that expression.
    Still don't see it flying in Dublin. Maybe all the flagpoles are controlled by a cabal of violent Irish Republicans.
    I'm not sure why one would expect to see it flying in Dublin. It flies from big hotels, but one would usually expect the Irish flag to fly from public buildings.
    Do try to keep up. Dublin is full of flags of many nations. Except the UK.
    Do try to stop being a twat. I've been there.
    Perhaps you've seen the bullet holes in the facade of the General Post Office. Ask yourself why they haven't been repaired. Then ask yourself if the Irish people would want reunification with the nation that put them there.
    I have no reason to believe that the Irish Republic wishes to rejoin this country. Nor do I have any reason to believe that the Irish in general are hostile to this country (Sinn Fein excepted).
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:



    The US allowed Lehman Brothers to go bust, one of its oldest and biggest investment banks

    Well, no one, even Barclays, would buy it. Second, it was an Investment Bank so there was presumably less public exposure.

    However, the nature of its collapse became iconic, symbolic and psychologically significant and started a process.

    I suspect with hindsight many people wish it had been saved. I doubt its collapse helped McCain in the 2008 election but Obama would probably have won anyway.

    iirc the American attempt to sell to Barclays (I almost wrote foist it on) was blocked by the government. Many observers believe the Americans letting Lehman's go bust is what triggered the global crisis.
    "Many"? Name four ... that aren't related to James Gordon Brown.
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Apologies for the moan. It does actually help :)

    This place must be a tonic then ;)

    I am sorry to hear you are poorly and I hope it all gets sorted quickly for you

    Thankyou. And now I feel bad about sniping at you. :( Apologies.
    I think I am sort of used to it by now. You would not be you if you stopped :)
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited July 2017
    http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/07/05/on-world-affairs-most-g20-countries-more-confident-in-merkel-than-trump/

    I wonder how Trump feels that more people in the US are looking to Merkel rather than himself to lead in regard to world affairs (according to Pew). Awkward....
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,957
    Do you know what, I'm sick of all this 'neeer, neeer, your side all kept lying about immigration'.

    I think sovereignty is really important. But I have also seen the negative impacts of uncontrolled EU immigration on the lives of my family who are not so privileged as to be antiquarian booksellers. I've seen their standards of living decline. I've seen competition for public services increase. Even in the poorest parts of North Wales, most of my generation will never buy a house; despite being better educated than most of their parents, who do own houses. I've seen the relentless pursuit of GDP growth at the expense of real GDP/capita growth. I've seen the long-standing social contract between employer and native employee and government and native eroded, for the sake of neo-liberal growth prospects. It makes me sick.

    I do not have anything but respect for those who have come here; but I don't think the numbers in which they've come is beneficial to our social settlement. I think it is, in fact, detrimental.

    Immigration IS a big issue. Brexit has to tackle it.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/07/05/on-world-affairs-most-g20-countries-more-confident-in-merkel-than-trump/

    I wonder how Trump feels that more people in the US are looking to Merkel rather than himself to lead in regard to world affairs (according to Pew). Awkward....

    I wouldn't have voted for him in a thousand years, just to be clear. However, on this, I doubt he gives the remotest flying fuck.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    GeoffM said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:



    The US allowed Lehman Brothers to go bust, one of its oldest and biggest investment banks

    Well, no one, even Barclays, would buy it. Second, it was an Investment Bank so there was presumably less public exposure.

    However, the nature of its collapse became iconic, symbolic and psychologically significant and started a process.

    I suspect with hindsight many people wish it had been saved. I doubt its collapse helped McCain in the 2008 election but Obama would probably have won anyway.

    iirc the American attempt to sell to Barclays (I almost wrote foist it on) was blocked by the government. Many observers believe the Americans letting Lehman's go bust is what triggered the global crisis.
    "Many"? Name four ... that aren't related to James Gordon Brown.
    A quick google finds the official US government enquiry said: The Commission concludes the financial crisis reached cataclysmic proportions with the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

    I expect there were more than four people on the commission but you'd probably dismiss them as biased for saying the crisis started in America and not in Downing Street.

    Gordon Brown saved the pound, saved the world, and saved the union. For all his manifest faults, that's a lot of fire insurance when he reaches the pearly gates.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    welshowl said:

    http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/07/05/on-world-affairs-most-g20-countries-more-confident-in-merkel-than-trump/

    I wonder how Trump feels that more people in the US are looking to Merkel rather than himself to lead in regard to world affairs (according to Pew). Awkward....

    I wouldn't have voted for him in a thousand years, just to be clear. However, on this, I doubt he gives the remotest flying fuck.
    I'd disagree. The one thing Trump has shown is that he deeply sensitive to criticism.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,957

    GeoffM said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:



    The US allowed Lehman Brothers to go bust, one of its oldest and biggest investment banks

    Well, no one, even Barclays, would buy it. Second, it was an Investment Bank so there was presumably less public exposure.

    However, the nature of its collapse became iconic, symbolic and psychologically significant and started a process.

    I suspect with hindsight many people wish it had been saved. I doubt its collapse helped McCain in the 2008 election but Obama would probably have won anyway.

    iirc the American attempt to sell to Barclays (I almost wrote foist it on) was blocked by the government. Many observers believe the Americans letting Lehman's go bust is what triggered the global crisis.
    "Many"? Name four ... that aren't related to James Gordon Brown.
    A quick google finds the official US government enquiry said: The Commission concludes the financial crisis reached cataclysmic proportions with the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

    I expect there were more than four people on the commission but you'd probably dismiss them as biased for saying the crisis started in America and not in Downing Street.

    Gordon Brown saved the pound, saved the world, and saved the union. For all his manifest faults, that's a lot of fire insurance when he reaches the pearly gates.
    IIRC it was Darling who was chancellor during the crisis.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,921

    http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/07/05/on-world-affairs-most-g20-countries-more-confident-in-merkel-than-trump/

    I wonder how Trump feels that more people in the US are looking to Merkel rather than himself to lead in regard to world affairs (according to Pew). Awkward....

    I like that. I wish we had a Merkel. Star quality in a rather ordinary frame
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Mortimer said:

    GeoffM said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:



    The US allowed Lehman Brothers to go bust, one of its oldest and biggest investment banks

    Well, no one, even Barclays, would buy it. Second, it was an Investment Bank so there was presumably less public exposure.

    However, the nature of its collapse became iconic, symbolic and psychologically significant and started a process.

    I suspect with hindsight many people wish it had been saved. I doubt its collapse helped McCain in the 2008 election but Obama would probably have won anyway.

    iirc the American attempt to sell to Barclays (I almost wrote foist it on) was blocked by the government. Many observers believe the Americans letting Lehman's go bust is what triggered the global crisis.
    "Many"? Name four ... that aren't related to James Gordon Brown.
    A quick google finds the official US government enquiry said: The Commission concludes the financial crisis reached cataclysmic proportions with the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

    I expect there were more than four people on the commission but you'd probably dismiss them as biased for saying the crisis started in America and not in Downing Street.

    Gordon Brown saved the pound, saved the world, and saved the union. For all his manifest faults, that's a lot of fire insurance when he reaches the pearly gates.
    IIRC it was Darling who was chancellor during the crisis.
    It was, and it was Darling who blocked the sale of Lehmans to Barclays (whether Barclays wanted to buy it is a separate question) but it was Gordon Brown who took the lead in coordinating the international response.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    GeoffM said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:



    The US allowed Lehman Brothers to go bust, one of its oldest and biggest investment banks

    Well, no one, even Barclays, would buy it. Second, it was an Investment Bank so there was presumably less public exposure.

    However, the nature of its collapse became iconic, symbolic and psychologically significant and started a process.

    I suspect with hindsight many people wish it had been saved. I doubt its collapse helped McCain in the 2008 election but Obama would probably have won anyway.

    iirc the American attempt to sell to Barclays (I almost wrote foist it on) was blocked by the government. Many observers believe the Americans letting Lehman's go bust is what triggered the global crisis.
    "Many"? Name four ... that aren't related to James Gordon Brown.
    A quick google finds the official US government enquiry said: The Commission concludes the financial crisis reached cataclysmic proportions with the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

    I expect there were more than four people on the commission but you'd probably dismiss them as biased for saying the crisis started in America and not in Downing Street.

    Gordon Brown saved the pound, saved the world, and saved the union. For all his manifest faults, that's a lot of fire insurance when he reaches the pearly gates.
    As long as the pearly gates haven't got any golden bits- 'cos they'd have been flogged off for tuppence by him. Still being checked in up there he wouldn't be needing a pension, which is just as well considering he taxed them and helped screw them over in the private sector.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    GeoffM said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:



    The US allowed Lehman Brothers to go bust, one of its oldest and biggest investment banks

    Well, no one, even Barclays, would buy it. Second, it was an Investment Bank so there was presumably less public exposure.

    However, the nature of its collapse became iconic, symbolic and psychologically significant and started a process.

    I suspect with hindsight many people wish it had been saved. I doubt its collapse helped McCain in the 2008 election but Obama would probably have won anyway.

    iirc the American attempt to sell to Barclays (I almost wrote foist it on) was blocked by the government. Many observers believe the Americans letting Lehman's go bust is what triggered the global crisis.
    "Many"? Name four ... that aren't related to James Gordon Brown.
    A quick google finds the official US government enquiry said: The Commission concludes the financial crisis reached cataclysmic proportions with the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

    I expect there were more than four people on the commission but you'd probably dismiss them as biased for saying the crisis started in America and not in Downing Street.

    Gordon Brown saved the pound, saved the world, and saved the union. For all his manifest faults, that's a lot of fire insurance when he reaches the pearly gates.
    You said "triggered" in your first comment.

    The Commission you quote in your second comment says "reached" which is a very different thing.
  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    welshowl said:

    http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/07/05/on-world-affairs-most-g20-countries-more-confident-in-merkel-than-trump/

    I wonder how Trump feels that more people in the US are looking to Merkel rather than himself to lead in regard to world affairs (according to Pew). Awkward....

    I wouldn't have voted for him in a thousand years, just to be clear. However, on this, I doubt he gives the remotest flying fuck.
    Well he's won the equivalent of 5 by-elections in the past 6 months against many people's expectations. CNN and the anti-Trump media really don't help themselves, so motivated with their hatred against Trump that anything goes for them including fake news. They'd have enough ammunition if they stuck to the facts, but when they're so corrupt themselves then they really do themselves no favours whatsoever.
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited July 2017
    Did any PB'ers with a hypermind account follow my betting tip (22nd Jan)?

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/post/quote/4487/Comment_1409358
    I don't understand hypermind probabilities.

    https://hypermind.com/hypermind/app.html?fwd=#welcome

    When will Donald Trump first shake hands with Vladimir Putin?

    In 2016
    1%
    First quarter 2017
    50%
    Second quarter 2017
    32%
    Third quarter 2017
    9%
    Fourth quarter 2017
    3%
    Not before 2018
    5%

    Surely the 11/1 on "Third quarter 2017" (G20 meeting is in early July) & also 20/1 on "Not before 2018" are both fantastic value?

    Why would there be an 82% chance they will meet and shake hands in the next 23 weeks?

    Does anyone know if these odds/percentages are actual prices that punters can bet at?
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:



    The US allowed Lehman Brothers to go bust, one of its oldest and biggest investment banks

    Well, no one, even Barclays, would buy it. Second, it was an Investment Bank so there was presumably less public exposure.

    However, the nature of its collapse became iconic, symbolic and psychologically significant and started a process.

    I suspect with hindsight many people wish it had been saved. I doubt its collapse helped McCain in the 2008 election but Obama would probably have won anyway.

    Barclays wanted to buy it but needed a shareholder vote and the Chancellor, quite rightly, wouldn't waive that rule
  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Roger said:

    http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/07/05/on-world-affairs-most-g20-countries-more-confident-in-merkel-than-trump/

    I wonder how Trump feels that more people in the US are looking to Merkel rather than himself to lead in regard to world affairs (according to Pew). Awkward....

    I like that. I wish we had a Merkel. Star quality in a rather ordinary frame
    The lady who foisted the migrant crisis on the EU. And consigned Greece to a never ending Great Depression. Don't make me laugh Roger!
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    hunchman said:

    Roger said:

    http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/07/05/on-world-affairs-most-g20-countries-more-confident-in-merkel-than-trump/

    I wonder how Trump feels that more people in the US are looking to Merkel rather than himself to lead in regard to world affairs (according to Pew). Awkward....

    I like that. I wish we had a Merkel. Star quality in a rather ordinary frame
    The lady who foisted the migrant crisis on the EU. And consigned Greece to a never ending Great Depression. Don't make me laugh Roger!
    Lets not forget she isn't very progressive when it comes to gay rights either.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    GeoffM said:

    GeoffM said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:



    The US allowed Lehman Brothers to go bust, one of its oldest and biggest investment banks

    Well, no one, even Barclays, would buy it. Second, it was an Investment Bank so there was presumably less public exposure.

    However, the nature of its collapse became iconic, symbolic and psychologically significant and started a process.

    I suspect with hindsight many people wish it had been saved. I doubt its collapse helped McCain in the 2008 election but Obama would probably have won anyway.

    iirc the American attempt to sell to Barclays (I almost wrote foist it on) was blocked by the government. Many observers believe the Americans letting Lehman's go bust is what triggered the global crisis.
    "Many"? Name four ... that aren't related to James Gordon Brown.
    A quick google finds the official US government enquiry said: The Commission concludes the financial crisis reached cataclysmic proportions with the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

    I expect there were more than four people on the commission but you'd probably dismiss them as biased for saying the crisis started in America and not in Downing Street.

    Gordon Brown saved the pound, saved the world, and saved the union. For all his manifest faults, that's a lot of fire insurance when he reaches the pearly gates.
    You said "triggered" in your first comment.

    The Commission you quote in your second comment says "reached" which is a very different thing.
    That was after about 60 seconds searching. If you want more, read the report or do your own search. The root cause was probably turning subprime mortgages into derivatives. The trigger for bringing down the global economy was Lehmans going bust. Before that, the crisis had been (more or less) contained.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Roger said:

    http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/07/05/on-world-affairs-most-g20-countries-more-confident-in-merkel-than-trump/

    I wonder how Trump feels that more people in the US are looking to Merkel rather than himself to lead in regard to world affairs (according to Pew). Awkward....

    I like that. I wish we had a Merkel. Star quality in a rather ordinary frame
    Yes, I like Merkel too. Can totally understand why many would look to her for leadership instead of Trump.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Pong said:

    Did any PB'ers with a hypermind account follow my betting tip on 22nd Jan?

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/post/quote/4487/Comment_1409358

    I don't understand hypermind probabilities.

    https://hypermind.com/hypermind/app.html?fwd=#welcome

    When will Donald Trump first shake hands with Vladimir Putin?

    In 2016
    1%
    First quarter 2017
    50%
    Second quarter 2017
    32%
    Third quarter 2017
    9%
    Fourth quarter 2017
    3%
    Not before 2018
    5%

    Surely the 11/1 on "Third quarter 2017" (G20 meeting is in early July) & also 20/1 on "Not before 2018" are both fantastic value?

    Why would there be an 82% chance they will meet and shake hands in the next 23 weeks?

    Does anyone know if these odds/percentages are actual prices that punters can bet at?
    Good tip but did you find a bookmaker?
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Mr Ashley told the judge he would have had four to five pints within an hour, after being asked how much he had drunk by a lawyer representing Mr Blue.

    "It was a fun evening, drinking at pace," he said. "I like to get drunk. I am a power drinker."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-40517276

    I do wonder how he manages to run such a successful company. He appears to be the British Trump minus the bankruptcies and with real profits.

    I know Jeff slightly. He's a decent guy - by banking standards honest and not particularly greedy
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    Mortimer said:

    Do you know what, I'm sick of all this 'neeer, neeer, your side all kept lying about immigration'.

    I think sovereignty is really important. But I have also seen the negative impacts of uncontrolled EU immigration on the lives of my family who are not so privileged as to be antiquarian booksellers. I've seen their standards of living decline. I've seen competition for public services increase. Even in the poorest parts of North Wales, most of my generation will never buy a house; despite being better educated than most of their parents, who do own houses. I've seen the relentless pursuit of GDP growth at the expense of real GDP/capita growth. I've seen the long-standing social contract between employer and native employee and government and native eroded, for the sake of neo-liberal growth prospects. It makes me sick.

    I do not have anything but respect for those who have come here; but I don't think the numbers in which they've come is beneficial to our social settlement. I think it is, in fact, detrimental.

    Immigration IS a big issue. Brexit has to tackle it.

    The lie was in purporting to offer a sea change in immigration. I think you'll find it doesn't happen - the economic undercurrent that powers it is too strong.

    In fact, although I shan't live to see it, I think we're the last century to worry seriously about it. 100 years from now, the whole UK will be liquorice allsorts, and few will care.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    welshowl said:

    GeoffM said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:



    The US allowed Lehman Brothers to go bust, one of its oldest and biggest investment banks

    Well, no one, even Barclays, would buy it. Second, it was an Investment Bank so there was presumably less public exposure.

    However, the nature of its collapse became iconic, symbolic and psychologically significant and started a process.

    I suspect with hindsight many people wish it had been saved. I doubt its collapse helped McCain in the 2008 election but Obama would probably have won anyway.

    iirc the American attempt to sell to Barclays (I almost wrote foist it on) was blocked by the government. Many observers believe the Americans letting Lehman's go bust is what triggered the global crisis.
    "Many"? Name four ... that aren't related to James Gordon Brown.
    A quick google finds the official US government enquiry said: The Commission concludes the financial crisis reached cataclysmic proportions with the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

    I expect there were more than four people on the commission but you'd probably dismiss them as biased for saying the crisis started in America and not in Downing Street.

    Gordon Brown saved the pound, saved the world, and saved the union. For all his manifest faults, that's a lot of fire insurance when he reaches the pearly gates.
    As long as the pearly gates haven't got any golden bits- 'cos they'd have been flogged off for tuppence by him. Still being checked in up there he wouldn't be needing a pension, which is just as well considering he taxed them and helped screw them over in the private sector.
    Nothing to do with private sector pension funds being stripped in the 1980s then?
  • Options
    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    RoyalBlue said:
    If it's not a double digit lead for Labour, Conservatives should take heart.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,957

    Mortimer said:

    Do you know what, I'm sick of all this 'neeer, neeer, your side all kept lying about immigration'.

    I think sovereignty is really important. But I have also seen the negative impacts of uncontrolled EU immigration on the lives of my family who are not so privileged as to be antiquarian booksellers. I've seen their standards of living decline. I've seen competition for public services increase. Even in the poorest parts of North Wales, most of my generation will never buy a house; despite being better educated than most of their parents, who do own houses. I've seen the relentless pursuit of GDP growth at the expense of real GDP/capita growth. I've seen the long-standing social contract between employer and native employee and government and native eroded, for the sake of neo-liberal growth prospects. It makes me sick.

    I do not have anything but respect for those who have come here; but I don't think the numbers in which they've come is beneficial to our social settlement. I think it is, in fact, detrimental.

    Immigration IS a big issue. Brexit has to tackle it.

    The lie was in purporting to offer a sea change in immigration. I think you'll find it doesn't happen - the economic undercurrent that powers it is too strong.

    In fact, although I shan't live to see it, I think we're the last century to worry seriously about it. 100 years from now, the whole UK will be liquorice allsorts, and few will care.
    I thought you guys were for Mugs with 'Controls on Immigration' on?

    But more seriously, Im surprised you're willing to accept that Nick. Economic issues are rarely worried about when it comes to formulating Labour policy about anything....
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